Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Commodity Term Structure Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This is a long-short strategy that dynamically holds long positions in commodities with high roll yields and short positions in commodities with low roll yields. The strategy aims to capture the term structure premium in commodity markets while reducing dependency on single market trends[33][35][34]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Roll Yield Factor**: The roll yield is calculated to measure the contango or backwardation state of a commodity. 2. **Dynamic Positioning**: Commodities with high roll yields are dynamically allocated long positions, while those with low roll yields are allocated short positions. 3. **Portfolio Balancing**: The portfolio is rebalanced periodically to maintain the desired exposure to the roll yield factor[35][38]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates flexibility in adapting to market risks and provides stable returns even in weak market trends[34]. 2. Model Name: Commodity Time-Series Momentum Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy captures medium- to long-term trends in commodity prices using multiple technical indicators. It dynamically allocates long positions to upward-trending assets and short positions to downward-trending assets[33][35]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Trend Indicators**: Technical indicators such as moving averages and momentum are used to identify price trends. 2. **Dynamic Positioning**: Commodities with upward trends are allocated long positions, while those with downward trends are allocated short positions. 3. **Portfolio Rebalancing**: Positions are adjusted periodically based on updated trend signals[35][45]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy effectively tracks price trends but may underperform in volatile or trendless markets[45]. 3. Model Name: Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy uses inventory data to capture fundamental changes in commodity markets. Commodities with declining inventories are allocated long positions, while those with increasing inventories are allocated short positions[33][35]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Inventory Factor**: Changes in inventory levels are calculated to assess supply-demand dynamics. 2. **Dynamic Positioning**: Commodities with declining inventories are dynamically allocated long positions, while those with increasing inventories are allocated short positions. 3. **Portfolio Rebalancing**: Positions are adjusted periodically based on updated inventory data[35][49]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy is effective in capturing fundamental supply-demand imbalances but may be sensitive to data accuracy and reporting delays[49]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Commodity Term Structure Simulation Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: 3.03% (YTD 2025)[33][38] - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 2. Commodity Time-Series Momentum Simulation Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: -1.33% (YTD 2025)[45] - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 3. Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Simulation Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: 2.88% (YTD 2025)[49] - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Roll Yield Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the contango or backwardation state of a commodity to capture the term structure premium[35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the roll yield as the difference between the spot price and the futures price. 2. Normalize the roll yield across commodities to ensure comparability. 3. Rank commodities based on their roll yields and allocate positions accordingly[35]. 2. Factor Name: Trend Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures medium- to long-term price trends using technical indicators[35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use moving averages, momentum, and other technical indicators to identify trends. 2. Normalize trend signals across commodities to ensure comparability. 3. Rank commodities based on their trend strength and allocate positions accordingly[35]. 3. Factor Name: Inventory Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures changes in inventory levels to capture supply-demand imbalances[35]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the percentage change in inventory levels over a specified period. 2. Normalize inventory changes across commodities to ensure comparability. 3. Rank commodities based on their inventory changes and allocate positions accordingly[35]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Roll Yield Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 2. Trend Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned 3. Inventory Factor - **Annualized Return**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Annualized Volatility**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Maximum Drawdown**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Sharpe Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned - **Calmar Ratio**: Not explicitly mentioned

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the EU plans to accelerate tariff negotiations with the US after the US threatens to impose tariffs on the EU, reducing global risk aversion. The US dollar index rebounds in the short - term, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, although domestic demand in April slowed down and was lower than expected, industrial production and exports far exceeded expectations, and the economic growth remained stable. The central bank's interest - rate cut and the reduced risk of tariff escalation between the US and the EU help boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals oscillate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, automobiles, and banks, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. The short - term risk appetite may be boosted, but there is no obvious macro - drive for trading currently. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and trade policy disturbances increase, and the short - term support for gold is strengthened. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the US economy and the marginal weakening of US debt credit will support the upward movement of the valuation center of precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market is in a dilemma, with weakening real demand and increasing supply. It is advisable to treat the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price decline of iron ore has widened. Although the iron - water output has decreased, there are differences in the market's view of its decline path. The supply may increase in the second quarter, and it is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron have decreased. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the downstream procurement sentiment is not good. The market will oscillate in the short term [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump delays imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, boosting market sentiment. The short - term oil price may fluctuate significantly due to event - based factors and macro - impacts [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price oscillates weakly following crude oil. The demand is average, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [8]. - **PX**: The polyester sector has corrected, and PX has declined slightly. It maintains a strong oscillation in the short term but may decline slightly later [8]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and PTA is affected by negative feedback from the downstream. The de - stocking rate will slow down, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The de - stocking is mainly due to the decrease in start - up, and the price will oscillate [10]. - **Short - fiber**: It maintains a high - level and weak - oscillation pattern and will continue to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Taicang market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The price will likely remain stagnant in the short term but may decline in the long - term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market has declined. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to decline under pressure [12]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has decreased. The short - term demand has been slightly repaired, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline in the long - term [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply is increasing. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, but the demand growth rate cannot be sustained. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in the short term and wait for a better short - selling point [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is gradually recovering, but there is still a raw - material gap in China. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is under pressure [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: There is no weather premium for US soybeans currently. The market is in a range - bound situation without a continuous upward drive [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal is weakening, and it lacks a stable upward support [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the price is supported by the low - level inventory of rapeseeds and the strong price - support intention of oil mills [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic market generally fluctuates with the BMD market but has stronger support when falling [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has decreased slightly before the Dragon Boat Festival, but the price is still under pressure in the future. The futures may rise in June due to the high basis [19]. - **Corn**: With the harvest of new - season wheat, the corn price is under pressure, and there is no upward drive currently [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite has increased as the US Treasury yield first soared and then declined. Domestically, the central bank's interest - rate cuts and commercial banks' reduction of deposit rates have further loosened monetary policy, which is conducive to boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends and operation suggestions. For example, the stock index may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the bond market may remain high - level volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to observe carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own characteristics and operation strategies [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The deterioration of the US fiscal outlook initially led to concerns about US Treasury demand, causing a sharp rise in Treasury yields. Subsequently, the passage of Trump's comprehensive tax - cut bill by the US House of Representatives and its submission to the Senate for review led to a decline in Treasury yields from recent highs, boosting market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: In April, domestic domestic demand slowed down and was lower than expected, while exports far exceeded expectations, and the role of exports in driving the economy remained strong. The central bank cut the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates by 10BP, and commercial banks reduced deposit rates, further loosening monetary policy, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2][3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as non - metallic materials, batteries, and semiconductor materials, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. Given the current economic situation and loose monetary policy, it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Gold: After the continuous decline of the US dollar, it rebounded, and the gold market rose and then fell on Thursday. Moody's downgrading of the US credit rating promoted safe - haven demand. The passage of Trump's large - scale tax and spending cut bill reduced policy uncertainty. The long - term global de - dollarization trend provides long - term support for gold. For silver, due to the weak manufacturing industry and supply - chain impacts, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [3]. Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets weakened on Thursday, with low trading volumes. Real - world demand continued to decline, and the apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 9.2 tons week - on - week. Although steel production increased, considering the high profitability of steel mills, short - term supply may remain high. The short - term steel market may be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly. With high steel - mill profitability, the probability of short - term high iron - water production is high. Although the global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons week - on - week, the arrival volume decreased by 289.6 tons. The port inventory decreased by 119.36 tons on Monday. Iron ore is still strong in the short term, and the strategy of shorting on rallies can be continued in the medium term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly, while the futures prices rebounded significantly. The main reasons were the inclusion of manganese ore in high - critical minerals by the South African government and the market rumor of a port workers' strike. However, the impact of these two news remains at the expected level. The fundamentals of silicon manganese are still weak, and its price increase is not expected to be sustainable, and it may fluctuate in the bottom - interval later [6]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ may increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting in July, mainly from Saudi Arabia. Coupled with concerns about economic growth slowdown and weakening energy demand caused by the US - led trade war, the market is worried about oversupply, and the price will remain weakly volatile [7]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates weakly following crude oil. Current demand is average, and the basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly. With the increase in production after profit recovery and the stagnation of inventory reduction, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. PX - PX has declined slightly recently, and the short - term profit is still high, so the later supply will not decrease significantly. With the reduction of PTA maintenance and the increase in demand, PX will remain in a tight - balance situation, and the upstream profit will expand again. However, if downstream production cuts occur, PX may face a risk of decline [7]. Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, methanol, PP, LLDPE, and urea has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, PTA may be in a weakly - oscillating pattern; ethylene glycol is expected to remain high - level and weakly volatile; short - fiber will continue to oscillate; methanol prices are still under pressure; the fundamentals of PP are not optimistic; LLDPE price increase is limited; and urea prices are strongly volatile in the short - and medium - term and under pressure in the long - term [8][9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The passage of a tax and spending bill by the US House of Representatives and the manufacturing and service PMI data in the euro area have certain impacts. The social inventory of copper has increased, and the processing fee of copper ore is at a historical low. As it is about to enter the off - season of demand, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs may boost demand. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for shorting can be sought in the medium term [11]. Aluminum - The global primary aluminum supply was in surplus in March and from January to March. China's primary aluminum imports increased in April. The market generally has a bearish view, but it is advisable to be cautious about shorting in the short term and wait for a better entry point [13]. Tin - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar and Congo is in progress, but the supply constraint still exists, and the processing fee of tin concentrate remains at a historical low. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream mainly conducts rigid - demand purchases. The short - term tin price will oscillate, supported by the tight supply of mines and low smelting start - up rates [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean futures closed higher. The export sales of US soybeans increased in the week ending May 15. The early - stage planting conditions in US soybean - producing areas are mild, and the drought - affected area has decreased [15]. Soybean Meal - The national dynamic full - sample oil - mill operating rate declined slightly. The basis trading volume of domestic soybean meal has increased significantly. The soybean meal futures price rebounded after testing the 2800 - 2850 range, and the support for the horizontal - range of M09 has been strengthened in the short term [15]. Palm Oil - US policies have caused greater fluctuations in the US soybean - oil market. The price of Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit per ton in May. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased from May 1 - 20, and the export also increased [15][16]. Live Pigs - After the May holiday, the terminal demand was weak, and the slaughtering enterprises faced difficulties in selling white - striped pigs. The supply was stable, but as the consumption off - season becomes more prominent, the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the risk of accelerated slaughter by large - scale farms and the pressure of selling large - sized pigs in late May or early June [16]. Corn - The futures price of corn has declined significantly recently, and the spot price has also been affected. With the listing of new - season wheat, the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The deep - processing profit has been in continuous losses, and the operating rate has remained stable. The purchase of wheat as a substitute for corn by downstream feed enterprises has increased [16].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: May 14, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The USDA's May report predicted the soybean supply - demand balance for the 25/26 season. The new - season US soybean has a slightly reduced supply and adjusted demand, resulting in a significant reduction in the ending inventory, and the US soybean returns to a relatively balanced supply - demand fundamental. After the report was released, the US soybean rose slightly, but there are still many uncertainties, especially regarding the US - China trade and biodiesel policies. Although the US soybean supply - demand is balanced, the South American soybean, especially Brazilian soybean, has a relatively loose fundamental. With the progress of the negotiation and the US soybean entering the weather - sensitive period, the CBOT soybean is expected to have strong support at the bottom, and its upward potential depends on the weather in the next 2 - 3 months [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Domestic Soybean Meal Futures**: The prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts such as 2505, 2507, and 2509 all declined. The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 1,354,709, and the open interest increased by 11,418. The trading volume of the 2507 contract was 160,303, and the open interest decreased by 20,090. The trading volume of the 2505 contract was 847, and the open interest decreased by 378 [6]. - **US Soybean Futures**: The US soybean 07 contract was strong, with the main contract at 1065 cents. The USDA's May report showed that the new - season US soybean planting area was about 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%; the harvested area was about 82.7 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%; the yield per unit was estimated at 52.5 bushels, a year - on - year increase of about 3.6%. The estimated production of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.6%. The estimated export volume was 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; the estimated crushing volume was 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The ending inventory was estimated at 295 million bushels, a significant decrease compared to the previous year [6]. 3.2 Industry News - As of the week of May 11, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 48%, higher than the market expectation of 47%, and the emergence rate was 17%. The USDA estimated the US soybean production in the 2025/2026 season to be 4.34 billion bushels, the ending inventory to be 295 million bushels, and the yield per unit to be 52.5 bushels per acre. The production estimates of Argentina and Brazil in the 2024/2025 season remained unchanged [7][9]. 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with the military sector remaining hot. The bond market is expected to be volatile and may strengthen in the medium term. The prices of precious metals are under pressure in the short term but may rise in the long term. The shipping index is expected to have a seasonal peak, and the prices of non-ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macroeconomics [2][6][9] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market opened low and rose high, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, but all had negative basis. The A-share trading volume decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. It is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options or go long on the June IM contract [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed higher, and the yields of major interest rate bonds decreased. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital interest rate decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate, fundamentals, and tariff negotiations [5][6] Precious Metals - Gold prices fell significantly due to the easing of trade risks and the outflow of long funds. Silver prices were relatively stable. In the long term, gold prices may rise due to economic recession risks and diversification needs. In the short term, they are under pressure due to the improvement of risk appetite. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral operations or sell out-of-the-money call options [9][10][11] Container Shipping Index - The quotes of leading shipping companies were relatively stable. The SCFIS European line index decreased, while the US West line index increased. The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was weak. It is recommended to go long on the August contract or widen the August - June spread [12][13] Commodity Futures Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper decreased, and the premium decreased. The supply was affected by the accident at the Antamina copper mine, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 [13][16][18] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc increased, but the trading volume was poor. The supply of zinc ore was loose, but the production of refined zinc was affected by maintenance. The demand was weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 21,500 - 23,500 [18][19][21] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin increased, and the trading volume increased slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the supply is expected to recover. The demand was improved by policies, but the outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds [21][22][23] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel decreased, and the trading volume was average. The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 122,000 - 128,000 [23][26] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the trading volume was poor. The supply was excessive, and the demand was slowly recovering. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [27][29] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was light. The supply increased, and the demand was average. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 63,000 - 68,000 [31][34] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price of steel decreased, and the production was high. The demand decreased during the May Day holiday, and the inventory increased. The profit of blast furnace steel mills was stable, while that of electric furnace steel mills was in loss. It is recommended to wait and see in unilateral operations and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials [35][36] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The demand for iron ore was high, but the supply increased. The inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the policy and the terminal demand of steel products [37][38] - **Coke**: The spot price of coke had demand support, but the second price increase was blocked. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [39][40][41] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal decreased, and the futures price also decreased. The supply was high, and the demand was average. The inventory was high. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [42][44] - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron was stable, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [45][46] - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of manganese silicon decreased, and the futures price increased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [48][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of US soybeans fluctuated, and the price of domestic soybean meal followed weakly. The domestic soybean meal market price was mixed, and the trading volume increased. The supply of US soybeans was sufficient, and the domestic soybean arrival was abundant. It is recommended to pay attention to the support near 2,900 [51][53] - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs fluctuated slightly. The supply of hogs was stable, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance of secondary fattening and slaughter [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was strong, and the price was in a high - level shock. The supply of corn was tight, and the demand was limited. The price is expected to be supported in the long term but may be under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [57][58] - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar fluctuated weakly, and the domestic sugar price followed. The supply of sugar was expected to increase, and the domestic supply - demand situation was loose. It is recommended to have a short - biased view on rebounds in the medium - long term [59]

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 5 月 9 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. The overall market is affected by factors such as Trump's statement on tariff reduction, Fed's economic "Beige Book", and supply - demand fundamentals of different commodities. Suggestions for different products range from trading strategies like selling out - of - the - money put options, to long - short strategies and interval operations [2][3][5]. Summary according to the Table of Contents Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain is picking up, and the trading sentiment of the index has risen. Although most of the four major stock index futures contracts fell, the A - share market may trade on the potential incremental stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the MLF roll - over. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Suggested strategies include interval operations, positive spread arbitrage for TS contracts, and steepening the yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices showed a differentiated trend. Gold continued to correct, while silver strengthened due to its industrial properties. In the long - term, gold still has upward momentum, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver is expected to fluctuate in the range of $32 - 34. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver lightly [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **SCFIS**: The spot prices of some leading shipping companies have adjusted, and the shipping index has shown different trends. The market expects the supply - demand situation to improve in May, and the news of tariff reduction may boost the market. It is recommended to take a long position and consider widening the spread between August and June contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has increased, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The demand side is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 76,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [14][17][18]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc has increased, and the supply of zinc mines is abundant. The demand side is weak after the peak season. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the medium - long term [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: The supply side is gradually recovering, and the demand side is uncertain. It is recommended to hold short positions on rebounds, with the short - term view of high - level fluctuations [21][22][23]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is stable, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The cost has a certain support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [24][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market sentiment has recovered, but the fundamentals still have pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [27][28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is general. The inventory is high. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 66,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [30][31][33]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The peak of apparent demand has passed, and the cold - hot spread is narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to weaken in the second quarter. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the support at the previous low for the long - steel short - ore strategy [34][35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded due to macro factors. The iron water output is high, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [37][38]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round may be proposed this week. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [39][40][41]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has weakened again, and the inventory is high. The price may still fall. It is recommended to use arbitrage strategies and continue to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [42][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price has decreased compared with the previous period. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46][47]. - **Manganese Silico - manganese**: The steel procurement price has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has also decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, while the US soybean lacks upward momentum. The Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. It is recommended to close short positions and consider long - term long positions at low prices [52][53][54]. - **Pigs**: The consumption support is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of second - round fattening pigs' sales. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [55][56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price is stable and strong. The supply is tightening in the long - term, but the short - term increase is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price maintains a high - level shock. The market expects an increase in production in the 25/26 season, which will suppress the price in the long - term [59]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic demand has no obvious increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and macro factors [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global risk appetite has significantly increased due to the US releasing signals of trade relaxation. The short - term risk preference of the domestic market is strongly supported by factors such as the Chinese foreign exchange regulator's measures to prevent RMB exchange - rate overshooting, strengthened domestic policy support, and the US - China trade relaxation signals. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index will rebound with short - term fluctuations, treasury bonds will fluctuate at a high level, and different commodity sectors also show different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The IMF has significantly downgraded the global economic outlook due to the impact of Trump's high tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary said that the trade tension between the US and China will ease, and Trump has no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell but hopes for a rate cut, leading to a sharp rebound in the US dollar and a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestic: The Chinese foreign exchange regulator's measures have relieved the RMB exchange - rate pressure, and the short - term risk preference of the domestic market is strongly supported [1]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as logistics trade, cross - border payment, and port shipping, the domestic stock market has risen slightly. With the relief of RMB exchange - rate pressure and strengthened policy support, short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market continued to rise on Tuesday. The US government's credit damage, trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and other factors will support the short - term strength of gold. If there is a correction, it may present a long - term allocation opportunity. Silver follows gold but has greater correction pressure [2][3]. 3.4 Black Metals 3.4.1 Steel - The steel futures and spot markets rose and then fell on Tuesday, with a significant decline in trading volume. The real demand recovery lacks sustainability, and the supply remains high. The short - term steel market is recommended to be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4]. 3.4.2 Iron Ore - The iron ore futures and spot prices fell slightly on Tuesday. The ore fundamentals are still good, but if the steel prices remain low, iron ore may experience a supplementary decline [5]. 3.4.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Tuesday. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the operating rates of silicon manganese and silicon iron enterprises have decreased. The short - term ferroalloy prices are recommended to be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [6]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals 3.5.1 Methanol - The methanol price in Taicang fluctuated slightly. The supply and demand pressure is expected to be small. The 05 contract price will mainly oscillate, and the 09 contract has a large supply - expectation pressure, waiting for a short - selling opportunity on a rebound [7]. 3.5.2 PP - The domestic PP market quotation was slightly adjusted. Although there is new production capacity, the supply reduction on the supply side will relieve the overall pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate and recover [8]. 3.5.3 LLDPE - The PE market price was adjusted. The near - month price has limited downward space due to low - inventory support. The 09 contract's supply and demand situation needs to be tracked, and the long - term price is still under pressure due to new production capacity release [9]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Copper - The copper price rose due to the weakening of the US dollar. The fundamentals are okay, and with the improvement of market risk preference and the expectation of domestic policy strengthening, the copper price will continue to rebound with short - term fluctuations [10]. 3.6.2 Aluminum - The domestic fundamentals of aluminum are good, with significant inventory reduction. There is short - term rebound space, but it is still bearish in the medium term [10]. 3.6.3 Tin - The supply of tin is gradually recovering, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term tin price will rebound, but the rebound space is limited [11]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 US Soybeans - The CBOT soybean closed higher. The US soybean planting progress is slightly faster, and the weather conditions vary in different regions [12]. 3.7.2 Soybean Meal - Since mid - April, the soybean meal spot basis has been strongly pulled up, but it may quickly decline later. The risk of a decline after May Day is relatively high [13]. 3.7.3 Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed meal has entered the peak demand season, but the supply risk premium has declined. The short - term price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to continue to widen [13]. 3.7.4 Oils - The inventory of soybean oil is accelerating to decline, the rapeseed oil is in the off - season, the Malaysian palm oil inventory has reached an inflection point, and the domestic palm oil is less driven by cost [14]. 3.7.5 Pigs - The current market is mainly trading on seasonal trends. After the second - fattening stimulates the spot price to rise, the demand matching is low, and the spot price may be under pressure around May [14]. 3.7.6 Corn - The upper - limit pressure of the current corn price range is due to weak demand and high inventory, while the lower - limit support comes from low inventory in the producing areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. The C05 contract may decline to narrow the basis [15].