1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in July with a 2.6% probability of a rate cut, but the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economy shows resilience, with the July composite PMI reaching a new high, but the manufacturing PMI falling into the contraction range. The gold market has increased long - short divergence, and domestic gold investment demand is strong while jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - Copper prices may decline slightly in the future week as the anti - involution heat fades, and will experience significant fluctuations due to major macro - events [14]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with low inventory supporting prices but weakening demand. Alumina has intensified capital games, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Zinc's supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak in the off - season, and short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades, and are affected by macro - events [96]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the polysilicon market should be cautious about the situation of "strong expectation, weak reality" [117]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Expectations**: The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in July (2.6% probability of a rate cut), and the expectation of a rate cut in September has risen to 60.5%. The US economic data shows mixed signals, with the composite PMI at a high and the manufacturing PMI in contraction [3]. - **Market Sentiment and Demand**: The 15% tariff agreement between the US and Europe weakens the safe - haven demand. Domestic gold investment demand is strong (23.69% year - on - year increase in gold bar and coin consumption in the first half of the year), but jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices [3]. - **Position Changes**: COMEX gold's total positions and net long positions have increased significantly, indicating intensified long - short divergence [3]. Copper - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Copper prices rose and then fell last week. The rise was due to anti - involution and expected copper demand from the Yajiang Hydropower Station, but these factors have limited short - term impact. Future price trends will be affected by the fading anti - involution heat and macro - events [14]. - **Market Data**: As of the report date, the latest price of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper has declined, and the import profit and loss and processing fees have also changed [15][22][26]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Aluminum**: The anti - involution sentiment has eased, and the price has slightly declined. Low inventory supports prices, but demand is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [34]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity is high and in surplus, but the spot is still tight. The warehouse receipts are at a low level, and the price has been affected by trading restrictions [35]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply side is affected by the price of scrap aluminum, and the demand side shows good short - term performance. It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [36]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [66]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of zinc futures and spot zinc have declined, and inventory has changed [67][72][75]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Movement**: The nickel - stainless steel market was boosted by sentiment last week. Nickel ore support is loosening, and new energy demand is weak [81]. - **Market Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures have changed, and trading volume and positions have also fluctuated [82]. Tin - **Price Movement and Reasons**: Tin prices rose due to anti - involution and may decline slightly as the heat fades, being affected by macro - events [96]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of tin futures and spot tin have declined, and inventory has increased [97][101][103]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is affected by macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, the start - up rate is expected to increase with rising prices [107]. - **Market Data**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot lithium have changed, and inventory has also fluctuated [108][111][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly due to good macro - sentiment and the rise of polysilicon [117]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is hyped up by policy expectations, and caution is needed about the "strong expectation, weak reality" situation [117]. - **Market Data**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products have changed, and production and inventory data are also provided [118][124][132]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price declined slightly due to the cooling of market sentiment. The spot - end downstream procurement willingness was weak, and the market was in a state of expected inventory accumulation during the off - season. Considering potential factory复产, short - term prices are under pressure. The short - term operation range of the main contract is expected to be 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [2]. Alumina - The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten due to the rainy season, and the low inventory of alumina futures warehouse receipts supports a short - term price rebound. However, the subsequent high - capacity operation pattern is difficult to change, and the market remains slightly oversupplied. The short - term operation range of the main contract is expected to be 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy price followed the decline of the aluminum price. The market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19600 - 20400 yuan/ton [5]. Copper - Macroscopically, the market has a consensus on the subsequent interest - rate cut in the US, but the timing is uncertain. Domestically, the "anti - involution" policy may affect the copper smelting capacity. Fundamentally, copper is in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term. The short - term price is boosted by positive macro - sentiment, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 77000 - 80000 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate of the global and domestic zinc mines in May and June fell short of expectations. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The zinc price has rebounded due to positive macro - policies, but the upward momentum is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton [10]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. The tin price has fallen from a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to macro - changes and inventory changes after the resumption of production in Myanmar [12]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and the supply of nickel ore has become relatively loose. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120000 - 128000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fluctuated weakly. The supply of nickel ore is loose, and the price of nickel iron is weakly stable. The supply of stainless steel is under pressure, and the terminal demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price fluctuated sharply. The supply side has increased uncertainties, mainly around mine - related issues in Qinghai and Jiangxi. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable but not significantly boosted. The overall inventory is accumulating. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [17]. Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20660 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous value; the import profit and loss was - 1665 yuan/ton, up 12.4 yuan/ton from the previous value [2]. Fundamental Data - In June, the alumina output was 725.81 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 360.90 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20100 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [5]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79075 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous value; the refined - scrap price difference was 960 yuan/ton, up 14.17% from the previous value [7]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper output was 113.49 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month; the import volume was 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22650 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous value; the import profit and loss was - 1711 yuan/ton, down 123.74 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - In June, the refined zinc output was 58.51 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month; the import volume was 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 268800 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 premium was 65.00 US dollars/ton, down 55.17% from the previous value [12]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11911 tons, down 11.44% from the previous value; the SMM refined tin output was 13810 tons, down 6.94% from the previous value [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 123200 yuan/ton, down 1.16% from the previous value; the 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price was 912 yuan/nickel point, up 0.22% from the previous value [13]. Supply and Inventory - The output of Chinese refined nickel products was 31800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) was 12900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 roll) was 12850 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the previous value [15]. Fundamental Data - In June, the output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 10.95 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73900 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the previous value; the lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 805 US dollars/ton, down 0.62% from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - In June, the lithium carbonate output was 78090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; the demand was 93815 tons, down 0.15% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. It points out that market sentiment is affected by factors such as trade agreements, tariff policies, and supply - demand relationships. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations; most metals are facing price pressures due to different factors, but there are also potential trading opportunities in different scenarios [3][5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold fell for three consecutive days, closing down 0.92% at $3337.18 per ounce; London silver fell 2.39% to $38.17 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.219% to 97.66, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.384%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.17% to 7.168 [3]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement with a 15% tariff on EU goods, $600 billion in EU investment in the US, and EU purchases of US military equipment and energy products. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%, and in September is 35.9% [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: As reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect and the US - EU trade agreement is reached, market risk - aversion sentiment eases. However, due to uncertainties in US tariffs, policies, and the Fed's independence, precious metals are expected to remain volatile at high levels [3][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and US non - farm and PCE data [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,800 yuan per ton, down 0.67%. LME copper closed at $9796 per ton, down 0.59%. LME inventory increased by 3700 tons to 128,000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 776 tons to 248,000 tons [7]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the US will determine chip - related tariff policies in two weeks [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and the approaching tariff deadline may impact the market. Supply is increasing, and it's the consumption off - season, so the upside of copper prices is limited [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options at low prices [9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 217 yuan to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [11]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law. Some alumina enterprises are affected by natural disasters; inventory and production capacity data have changed [11][12][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The policy of eliminating backward production capacity may impact the market. Inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand surplus is expanding. Pay attention to the change in the spot supply - demand pattern [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level fluctuations; hold off on trading for now [14][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 135 yuan per ton to 20,615 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [20]. - **Important Information**: Aluminum inventory increased, and the US - EU is discussing steel and aluminum tariffs. Some enterprises are operating at full capacity [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and inventory changes affect the market. Pay attention to the opportunity of the spread between contracts [23][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure; consider a long - short spread strategy for 09 - 12 contracts [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 155 yuan to 19,995 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [28]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, and production data changed [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is restricted by scrap aluminum shortage, and demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are under pressure with aluminum prices; consider arbitrage when the spread is above 300 - 400 yuan [32]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc market fell 0.4% to $2829 per ton; the Shanghai zinc 2509 contract fell 0.57% to 22,715 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [34]. - **Important Information**: Zinc ore inventory at ports decreased, and the processing fee is expected to rise [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc ore is sufficient, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase. It's the consumption off - season, and the downstream demand is weak [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions; buy put options [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead market fell 0.12% to $2020.5 per ton; the Shanghai lead 2509 contract fell 0.38% to 16,845 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [39]. - **Important Information**: The cost of recycled lead is high, and the raw material supply is a problem [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost of recycled lead provides support for lead prices. The production of lead smelters is affected, and the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider a small - position long at low prices; sell put options [42]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell to $15,265 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract fell to 121,430 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [44]. - **Important Information**: Some nickel - related projects in Indonesia have made strategic adjustments [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Nickel prices are affected by the market sentiment. There is a risk of potential demand decline, and the supply - demand pattern in August may be similar to that in July [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading follows the macro - environment; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 129,785 yuan per ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48][50]. - **Important Information**: Some steel mills are under maintenance, and tax policies have been adjusted [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: External demand is restricted, and speculative demand is strong. The cost is affected by raw materials, and the market is trading based on macro - logic [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading returns to the oscillation range; hold off on trading for now [53]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose first and then fell, and the spot prices strengthened [55]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law [56]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand have changed, and the short - term bullish sentiment may fade [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Withdraw from long positions; hold protective put options; participate in arbitrage strategies [57]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, then fell. Spot prices are given [59]. - **Important Information**: The photovoltaic industry's development in the first half of 2025 is reviewed, and the national photovoltaic installation scale prediction is adjusted [61]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and there may be an oversupply in August. The futures may open lower, and pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider a long - position strategy at low prices if the price drops significantly; pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose to 90,520 yuan per ton, and spot prices increased [63]. - **Important Information**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is promoting the research and listing of some futures products and has adjusted the trading limit [63][66]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is trading based on the expectation of mine closures. The price may fluctuate greatly, and pay attention to regulatory policies [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Withdraw from long positions for now; consider long - positions after a sufficient correction; hold put options; participate in far - month contract reverse arbitrage [65][66]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 contract fell to 268,130 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees are given [68]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the global economic growth forecast is lowered [68][70]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices fell after rising. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [70]. - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices fluctuate with the market sentiment; hold off on trading for now [70].

Report Information - Date: July 28, 2025 [1][4][9][12] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy [1] Core Views - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Commodity prices fell during the night session on Friday. Pay attention to the transmission of pessimistic sentiment [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Sentiment is declining. Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline [2][12] - Polysilicon: Sentiment is declining [2][12] Industry - Specific Summaries Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 124,360 yuan, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,030 yuan. There were also detailed data on trading volume, spot prices, and various spreads [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan for 2025 is higher than that of 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia stopped production [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 80,520 yuan, with detailed data on trading volume, open interest, and various spreads and prices in the lithium - salt industrial chain [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange limited the daily opening volume of the LC2509 contract [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,725 yuan, and that of the PS2509 contract was 51,025 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices in the industrial chain, as well as inventory and cost data [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: In the first half of the year, Zhejiang purchased 126 million green certificates, equivalent to 12.6 billion kWh of electricity [14] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon trend intensities are - 1 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 closed at 124,360 yuan/ton on July 24, 2025, and the nickel price showed an overall fluctuating upward trend this month. The market is currently in the stage of trading expectations, and it is expected that subsequent "anti - involution" supporting policies will continue to increase. If so, the market may continue to rise. It is predicted that the Shanghai nickel and stainless steel will mainly show a fluctuating upward trend in the future [3][42]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July 2025, nickel showed an overall fluctuating upward trend. The nickel futures price was gradually repairing the gap caused by the tariff storm in early April. Due to weak demand, the overall market fluctuated with a slightly lower center. This month, it rose due to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply - side Analysis - **LME and SHFE inventory**: Since the second half of 2023, both LME and SHFE nickel inventories have shown a stable recovery trend. As of late July 2025, SHFE inventory was 25,277 tons, and LME inventory was 204,456 tons. As of July 18, 2025, the nickel port inventory was 6.2896 million tons [12][15]. - **Chinese nickel ore port inventory and imported Philippine nickel ore quantity**: The import of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines shows seasonal fluctuations [16]. - **Electrolytic nickel price**: The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have been in a weak and fluctuating trend since the beginning of this year, and closed at around 121,300 yuan/ton in mid - July [20]. - **Nickel sulfate price**: As of July 24, 2025, the nickel sulfate price dropped to 27,830 yuan/ton [22]. - **Nickel iron import volume and price**: On July 24, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel iron (8% - 12%) was 930 yuan/nickel [28]. 2.2 Demand - side Analysis - **Stainless steel price and position**: The stainless steel futures price is currently fluctuating at a low level, and the expected fluctuation range is 12,600 - 13,300 yuan/ton [31]. - **Stainless steel inventory**: According to data released by WIND, on July 18, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 477,100 tons and 179,200 tons respectively [33]. - **Power and energy - storage battery production**: The production of power and energy - storage batteries shows certain trends, but specific data trends are not elaborated in detail in the text [37]. - **New - energy vehicle production**: The production of new - energy vehicles shows certain trends, but specific data trends are not elaborated in detail in the text [40]. 3. Future Outlook - The Shanghai nickel market rebounded in mid - and early April, then declined due to weak fundamentals, and continued to fluctuate this month. Recently, due to the hot trading sentiment of industrial products, the Shanghai nickel price has risen. At the industrial level, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, and the changes in the spot premiums and discounts of each refined nickel are small. The supply shortage of nickel ore has been alleviated, and the current supply is relatively loose. The nickel - iron price remains weak, and many factories are in the red. The nickel sulfate price maintains a weak downward trend, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The demand for stainless steel is weak, the inventory reduction progress is slow, and the inventory pressure still exists. Whether it will improve in the medium and long term remains to be verified by further data [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The progress of the US - EU tariff agreement eases trade tensions, weakening gold's safe - haven demand. The drop in US initial jobless claims to 217,000 strengthens the expectation of the Fed maintaining interest rates. The breakdown of cease - fire negotiations in the Middle East provides some support, while domestic gold prices are pressured by both the decline in international gold prices and the strengthening of the RMB [3]. - Copper: The "anti - involution" affects the entire non - ferrous metal sector. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are potential mid - term risks as there is no significant capacity to be eliminated on the supply side, and the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station has a long cycle with low initial copper demand. Also, the increase in copper prices has not significantly driven up positions [13]. - Aluminum: Macroeconomic factors are positive, boosting sentiment. Low inventory continues to support aluminum prices, and SHFE aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. For alumina, the short - term trend is mainly driven by sentiment, and it may fluctuate, with a risk of significant correction if the fundamentals change. Cast aluminum alloy is affected by high scrap aluminum prices and weak demand [33][34][35]. - Zinc: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" sentiment, SHFE zinc fluctuates at a high level. Fundamentally, the supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and demand is weak during the traditional off - season. The Yarlung River Dam project may bring some demand growth [62]. - Nickel: Nickel ore supply is expected to be loose with narrowing demand and is likely to decline. Nickel pig iron trading has improved, and stainless steel lacks upward momentum. Sulfuric acid nickel is produced based on sales, and attention should be paid to the support of nickel pig iron and large - scale production cuts [78]. - Tin: The rise in tin prices is due to the "anti - involution" impact on the non - ferrous sector, but its fundamentals remain unchanged. In the short term, with the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weakening demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the support [93]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot market for lithium ore and lithium salts is actively traded, and industry profits are improving. Cost support is strengthened by rising ore prices, but price fluctuations have increased [103]. - Silicon Industry Chain: Market sentiment is hot, and both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices have fluctuated significantly. Investors should pay attention to position risks [112]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Influencing Factors**: Trade agreements, US economic data, Middle East situation, and RMB exchange rate affect gold prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and long - term fund holdings [4][8]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term slightly stronger, mid - term potential risks [13]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of SHFE copper contracts show a decline, and the trading volume and positions have certain trends [14]. - **Spot Data**: Spot copper prices have decreased, and the basis and spreads have changed [17]. - **Import and Processing**: Copper import losses have increased, and copper concentrate TC remains unchanged [25]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: SHFE and LME copper warehouse receipts and inventories have different changes [30][31]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Macroeconomic support, low inventory support, and short - term high - level fluctuations [33]. - **Alumina**: High operating capacity, slow inventory accumulation, tight spot supply, and short - term sentiment - driven [34]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: High cost, weak demand, and price following SHFE aluminum [35]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Include prices of various contracts, spreads between different contracts, and basis data [36][41]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina warehouse receipts and inventories have changed [58]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: High - level fluctuations under "anti - involution" sentiment, with supply gradually becoming surplus and demand weak [62]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Prices of SHFE and LME zinc contracts have declined, and spreads between different contracts have changed [63]. - **Spot Data**: Spot zinc prices have decreased, and the basis and spreads have certain trends [69]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE and LME zinc warehouse receipts and inventories have increased [74]. Nickel - **Industry Outlook**: Nickel ore supply is loose, nickel pig iron trading improves, stainless steel lacks upward momentum, and sulfuric acid nickel is produced based on sales [78]. - **Price and Position Data**: Prices of SHFE and LME nickel contracts have changed, and trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts have corresponding trends [79]. - **Related Price Charts**: Include prices of nickel ore, nickel pig iron, and downstream products, as well as profit margins of related production [84][86][88]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: The rise is due to sector - wide influence, with short - term upward pressure greater than support [93]. - **Futures and Spot Data**: Prices of SHFE and LME tin contracts have declined, and spot tin prices and related products have also decreased [94][97]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE tin warehouse receipts have increased, while LME tin inventory remains unchanged [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Active spot trading, improving industry profits, and strengthening cost support [103]. - **Futures Price Data**: Prices of various lithium carbonate futures contracts have increased, and spreads between different contracts have changed [103]. - **Spot Data**: Prices of lithium ore and lithium salts have risen, and the spreads between different products have also changed [106]. - **Inventory Data**: Exchange and social inventories of lithium carbonate have different changes [110]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Market Outlook**: Hot market sentiment, significant price fluctuations in industrial silicon and polysilicon futures, and investors should pay attention to position risks [112]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Spot prices are stable, futures prices have increased slightly, and basis and spreads have changed [113][114]. - **Related Price Charts**: Include prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components, as well as production and inventory data of industrial silicon [120][121][127][133][140].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical analysis, and trading strategies of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. Overall, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies will bring inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is also unknown. Precious metals are expected to remain in a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall. Other metals are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and market sentiment, showing different trends and investment suggestions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold fell 1.3% to $3386.7 per ounce after three - day gains, London silver fell 0.12% to $39.216 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold futures fell 0.78% to 785.26 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.36% to 9431 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.18% to 97.214, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.39%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.21% to 7.1547 [3]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in trade negotiations between the US and other major economies, and the Federal Reserve's situation has eased market risk - aversion. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 37.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 61.2% [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: The uncertainty of US tariffs and policies will bring inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is also unknown. Precious metals are expected to remain in a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider holding long positions based on the 5 - day moving average for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [5][6][7]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 79680 yuan per ton, down 0.16%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 1404 lots to 513,000 lots. The overnight LME copper closed at $9933.5 per ton, up 0.36%. The LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 125,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 418 tons to 244,000 tons [9][10]. - **Important Information**: The output of Vale and MMG's copper mines increased. Kazakhstan plans to double copper production by 2030, and a Canadian mining company hopes its project will be put into production in 2030. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, with a 50% tariff rate [13][14][15]. - **Logical Analysis**: The short - term market has increased expectations for a new round of supply - side reform and anti - deflation, and copper prices are running strongly. Supply is high, and it is in the consumption off - season, with limited upside potential [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to run strongly in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [16]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session alumina 2509 contract fell 53 yuan to 3366 yuan per ton. The spot price in the north rose, and the national weighted index also increased [18]. - **Important Information**: Policies to eliminate backward production capacity are about to be released. There were spot transactions in Shandong and Vietnam. The alumina warehouse receipts on July 23 were 6922 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The production of some factories in Shanxi has changed [19][20][21]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market has optimistic expectations for policies, but details are yet to be determined. The current warehouse receipts are at a low level. If the increase in warehouse receipts is limited, the alumina price will still be supported above the full cost of high - cost production capacity [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina prices will fluctuate widely in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [23][24]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract rose 70 yuan per ton to 20960 yuan per ton. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased. The price of thermal coal also rose [26]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major markets increased, and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The housing completion area decreased, and there were trade negotiations between the US and other countries. The output of some aluminum plants increased, and the export and import volume of aluminum products changed [27][30][31]. - **Logical Analysis**: The negotiation of tariffs has made progress, and the LME aluminum price has rebounded. Domestically, policies to eliminate backward production capacity are expected to boost aluminum prices. The aluminum rod production has decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots may increase slightly. The aluminum consumption off - season may not be too serious [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices will run strongly in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20140 yuan per ton. The spot price in different regions remained unchanged [35]. - **Important Information**: The weighted average full cost of the casting aluminum alloy industry in June increased, and the profit margin narrowed. The weekly production of casting aluminum alloy increased [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of alloy ingot enterprises is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is affected by the off - season. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost and aluminum price. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of buying spot and selling far - month futures [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices will fluctuate at a high level following the aluminum price for unilateral trading; consider arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is above 300 - 400 yuan; hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [37][38]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The overnight LME zinc rose 0.23% to $2860 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2509 rose 0.15% to 22940 yuan per ton. The spot trading in Shanghai was light, and the spot premium and discount were weak [41]. - **Important Information**: The zinc production of some companies changed. From January to May, the global zinc concentrate production increased, while the refined zinc production decreased, and there was a cumulative surplus [42][43]. - **Logical Analysis**: Zinc prices may rebound in the short - term, but in the long - term, the supply of the mine end is sufficient, and the consumption is in the off - season, with the domestic social inventory likely to increase [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and profitable long positions can consider partial profit - taking; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [46][47]. Lead - **Market Review**: The overnight LME lead rose 0.69% to $2028.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2509 rose 0.03% to 16910 yuan per ton. The spot price remained unchanged, and the trading was light [49]. - **Important Information**: The supply of waste lead - acid batteries is stable, and the import and export volume of lead - acid batteries changed [49][50]. - **Logical Analysis**: In the short - term, the supply of lead ingots may improve, and the consumption of lead - acid batteries is not good but has peak - season expectations [51][52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable long positions can leave the market temporarily, and try to go long lightly at low prices; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [53]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The overnight LME nickel rose to $15575 per ton, and the inventory decreased. The Shanghai nickel rose to 123660 yuan per ton. The premium of spot nickel changed [55]. - **Important Information**: There was a project adjustment plan for nickel powder production. The third - round Sino - US trade negotiations will be held, and relevant work has been carried out for the problems of key enterprises in the non - ferrous metal industry [56]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market has optimistic expectations for policies, but nickel supply and demand are in surplus, and it is in the off - season. The short - term price follows the macro - sentiment [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the macro - atmosphere in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for options [58][59][60]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main stainless - steel SS2509 contract fell to 12900 yuan per ton, and the spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel was reported [62]. - **Important Information**: The purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Shanxi Taigang decreased, and the high - nickel pig iron in Indonesia was traded [63]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market has optimistic expectations for policies, but the actual demand is not good. The cost has changed, and the market pays attention to the overall atmosphere [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices will be strong in a volatile manner for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose 0.58% after a sharp rise and fall, and the spot price rose [68][69]. - **Important Information**: A monomer enterprise in Shandong entered maintenance, and the supply decreased [70]. - **Logical Analysis**: The production of leading enterprises may decline in July, and there is a supply - demand gap before their resumption. The long - term trend depends on the resumption rhythm, and there is upward pressure in the short - term [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Exit long positions for unilateral trading; hold put options for options; participate in reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts and positive arbitrage for the 11th and 10th contracts for arbitrage [72]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures rose 5.5% after a sharp callback, and the spot price increased [74]. - **Important Information**: The solar power generation capacity increased, but the new photovoltaic installation in June decreased [75]. - **Logical Analysis**: The increase in polysilicon prices can be transmitted to the downstream. The market has strong expectations for capacity integration, and the future trend depends on the number of warehouse receipts [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Gradually exit long positions as the pressure on the market increases; buy protective put options for options; participate in reverse arbitrage for far - month contracts for arbitrage [77]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main lithium carbonate 2509 contract fell to 69380 yuan per ton, and the spot price increased [79]. - **Important Information**: The lithium concentrate export volume of Zimbabwe increased, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange raised the trading fee [80]. - **Logical Analysis**: Observe whether the trend changes after the increase in fees and warehouse receipts. There are concerns about supply reduction, and pay attention to relevant factors in the future [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the short - term trend for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for options [80][81][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The market is optimistic about the potential for supply - side clearance, which has boosted copper prices. However, demand has weakened with the price rebound, and there is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Domestic macro - policies and low inventories support copper prices. The main reference price range is 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term prices are expected to be strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but there are risks such as policy changes in Guinea and potential squeezes. Mid - term, it is advisable to short at high prices. For aluminum, short - term prices are under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price reference range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction inflection points and demand changes [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [9]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [11]. Tin - Supply - side restoration is expected as tin mines in Myanmar resume production. However, due to positive market sentiment, short positions should be avoided for now. After the sentiment stabilizes, short at high prices [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy directions and steel - mill production reduction rhythms [17]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is characterized by emotional differentiation, and trading on price volatility can be considered. The main contract price range is 68,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton. Mid - term, a hedging strategy at high prices is recommended. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and upstream actions [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.04% to 79,790 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 million tons (-0.30%) to 1.1349 million tons, and imports increased by 47,400 tons (18.74%) to 300,500 tons. The opening rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 7.22 percentage points to 74.22% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.43% to 20,850 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production decreased by 14,000 tons (-0.19%) to 7.2581 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 120,000 tons (-3.22%) to 3.609 million tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,250 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 50 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 9,000 tons (1.49%) to 615,000 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6,000 tons (-2.30%) to 255,000 tons [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.18% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 35,700 tons (6.50%) to 585,100 tons, and imports increased by 9,300 tons (34.97%) to 36,100 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.40% to 124,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 3,550 tons (-10.04%) to 31,800 tons, and imports increased by 10,325 tons (116.90%) to 19,157 tons [11]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.98% to 268,900 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 1,538 tons (-11.44%) to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 1,030 tons (-6.94%) to 13,810 tons [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 68,300 tons (-3.83%) to 1.7133 million tons, and imports decreased by 16,000 tons (-12.48%) to 109,500 tons [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.95% to 70,450 yuan/ton. The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 6,010 tons (8.34%) to 78,090 tons, and demand decreased by 145 tons (-0.15%) to 93,815 tons [20].