Core Insights - In October 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Liaoning decreased by 1.2% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The Industrial Producer Price Index (IPI) fell by 3.8% year-on-year, with a reduction of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] Price Trends - The prices of production materials decreased by 0.7% year-on-year in October, with the mining industry down by 4.3% and processing industry down by 1.1% [1] - Consumer goods prices fell by 3.2% year-on-year, with food prices down by 4.6%, daily necessities down by 2.5%, durable goods down by 2.4%, and clothing down by 0.7% [1] Raw Material Price Movements - In October, the prices of nine major raw materials showed a "three increases and six decreases" trend year-on-year [1] - Prices for non-ferrous metals and wires increased by 0.8%, wood and pulp by 0.6%, and textile raw materials by 0.1% [1] - Other industrial raw materials and semi-finished products decreased by 0.7%, black metal materials by 3.2%, construction materials and non-metallic products by 4.6%, fuel and power by 6.5%, agricultural products by 7.0%, and chemical raw materials by 7.1% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range oscillation [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillation with a weakening trend [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillation [1] - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the decline in temperature, the demand for rebar is entering the off - season, and steel mills' losses are expanding, leading to increased production cuts and maintenance. The short - term rebar futures may oscillate in a narrow range [1]. - For iron ore, the shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil are decreasing, iron - making production is falling, and inventories are rising. The short - term ore price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend [1]. - In the coking coal market, supply is tight due to safety inspections and over - production control, while downstream procurement demand has slightly increased. The short - term coking coal futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Regarding coke, although the third price increase has been implemented and the loss of coke enterprises has eased slightly, steel mills' demand is expected to weaken, and the short - term coke futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - For manganese silicon, the output has slightly declined, steel procurement volume has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. The short - term manganese silicon futures are expected to oscillate [1]. - In the ferrosilicon market, supply remains strong, steel demand is weak, and inventory has reached a new high. The short - term ferrosilicon futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel procurement [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3044 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.33%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions of 37,200 lots. Spot prices were stable with some increases, and trading volume recovered. National building material inventories decreased by 0.89% to 4.8292 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventories decreased by 0.47% to 2.4768 million tons, with a narrowing decline. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term futures are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 765 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.6%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and a decrease in positions of 18,000 lots. Port spot prices rose slightly. Australian and Brazilian shipping volumes decreased, while those from other countries increased. Iron - making production decreased by 21,400 tons to 2.3422 million tons, and inventories at 47 ports and steel mills increased. Short - term ore prices are expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1265.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton (0.35%), with a decrease in positions of 11,547 lots. Spot prices in some areas increased, and supply was tight due to safety inspections and over - production control. Downstream procurement demand increased slightly, and short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1743.5 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (0.74%), with a decrease in positions of 162 lots. Spot prices at ports decreased. Coke enterprises proposed a fourth price increase, but steel mills have not responded. After the third price increase, the loss of coke enterprises eased slightly, and inventories were low. Steel mills' demand is expected to weaken, and short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5820 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous trading day, and a decrease in positions of 2377 lots to 354,800 lots. Market prices in different regions varied. Steel procurement volume decreased, output decreased slightly, and inventory reached a new high. Short - term futures are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5588 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous trading day, and a decrease in positions of 3545 lots to 162,100 lots. Market prices in different regions were basically stable. Steel procurement volume decreased, supply remained strong, and inventory reached a five - year high. Short - term futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel procurement [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various varieties (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) are provided, along with changes compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) is presented, along with changes compared to the previous period [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for various varieties over different months [16][18][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 10) for different varieties [26][28][31][35][36][39][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of inter - variety contracts (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio) for main contracts [44][46][47]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [49][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [56]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures industry [56]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [56]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market has short - term support, but there are still supply - demand surplus pressures in Q4 and Q1 of next year. Consider short - side strategies after the oil price rebounds again [2]. - Precious metals may continue to build a high - level shock platform due to the lack of strong drivers [3]. - The upward momentum of the copper market in the short - term is decreasing. Consider buying put at - the - money/one - strike out - of - the - money options and selling call options with an execution price of 90,000 to reduce costs [4]. - The aluminum market is mainly driven by macro sentiment, with limited fundamental resonance. Be vigilant of capital turning [5]. - Other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc. also have their own market characteristics and investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and other factors [8][9][10]. Summary by Catalog Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspending production increase in Q1 of next year boosts market confidence. US government shutdown negotiation progress and geopolitical factors also affect the market. There is short - term support, but supply - demand surplus pressure remains [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply tends to be loose, while low - sulfur fuel oil has short - term positive sentiment but weak medium - term upward support [22]. - **Asphalt**: Demand is weaker than expected, and social inventory has turned from lower to higher year - on - year. The market is bearish, and the price continues to decline [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Fundamental conditions have improved marginally, providing support for the LPG price [24]. Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily lack strong drivers and may continue high - level shock [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The upward momentum is decreasing, and inventory has decreased. Consider short - term trading strategies [4]. - **Aluminum**: Narrow - range fluctuation, with macro - led strong sentiment and limited fundamental resonance [5]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and low inventory supports the external market. The domestic market is expected to follow the external market to rise [8]. - **Lead**: High - level shock, with the far - month contract's center of gravity expected to move up [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is weak, and the stainless - steel market is sluggish [10]. - **Tin**: Supply is constrained, but demand is weak. Consider short - selling in the medium - to - long - term [11]. - **Alumina**: Supply surplus persists, and the price is weak with limited rebound space [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the aluminum price and has no independent market for now [6]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price has risen significantly, and the market sentiment has improved. It is expected to be strong in the short - term [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is expected to shrink more than demand, and the inventory may decrease. The futures price is expected to be strong in the short - term [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price will continue to fluctuate due to the synchronous contraction of supply and demand [14]. - **Urea**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range with a slightly upward price center [25]. - **Methanol**: It may continue to be weak in the short - term, but is easily affected by positive news due to low valuation [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is in a narrow - range shock at a low level. Pay attention to the port inventory build - up rhythm [27]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand balance is tight, but the market is worried about the long - term situation, and the price is under pressure [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The demand has improved temporarily, but the overall supply is loose, and the price is under pressure [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has high supply and weak demand, and may run at a low level. Caustic soda is in a weak operation [30]. - **PX & PTA**: PX supply has recovered, and PTA has improved slightly. There is uncertainty in the short - to - medium - term, so it is advisable to wait and see [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply growth pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium - term. Adopt a bearish view [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good spot pattern but is affected by raw material price increases. Bottle - chip demand is weakening [33]. Building Materials Commodities - **Glass**: The price is falling, and the cost has increased. The profit has narrowed, and the daily melting has decreased. Pay attention to the end - of - year rush - work situation [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is in a strong shock in the short - term, but a short - selling strategy is recommended in the long - term due to high supply pressure [36]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Soybean supply is basically sufficient in Q4, and there may be inventory reduction in Q1 of next year. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities after Sino - US trade eases [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. Palm oil has high - inventory pressure in the short - term [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be poor. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for domestic rapeseed products [39]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price is in a high - level shock. Pay attention to domestic soybean policies and market sentiment [40]. - **Corn**: The futures price is rebounding at the bottom, but the supply is still loose in the future [41]. - **Pork**: The price may have a seasonal rebound in the short - term, but there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing in H1 of next year [42]. - **Egg**: Try short - selling at high prices and observe the spot market [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has risen. The Zhengzhou cotton price is in a shock. Pay attention to the US cotton export data [44]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and pay attention to the sugar production forecast in Guangxi for the new season [45]. - **Apple**: The price is in a wide - range shock. Adopt a bearish strategy due to inventory concerns [46]. - **Timber**: The price is in a weak operation. Low inventory provides support, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. - **Pulp**: The price has risen. The inventory has decreased, and the valuation is low. Consider buying at low prices [48]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes are differentiated, and futures contracts have all risen. Pay attention to the RMB exchange rate and domestic policies [49]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price is rising in a shock. The yield curve steepening may come to an end [50].

Report Information - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [1] - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to face inventory build - up pressure and decline from high levels [2][4] - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8][12] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate around high levels [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price was 765.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.59%). The previous day's position was 541,602 lots, down 17,806 lots. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores remained stable, while prices of some domestic ores decreased [4] - **News**: Deputy Premier Liu Guozhong will attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project on November 11 [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,044 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.26%); for hot - rolled coil HC2601, it was 3,252 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%). There were changes in trading volume, position, and basis [8] - **News**: In October 2025, China imported 50.3 million tons of steel, a decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%) from the previous month. There were also changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand in November [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: There were price changes in futures contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Spot prices and various price differences also had corresponding changes [12] - **News**: There were price changes in raw materials such as semi - coke, and changes in the tender quantity of a large steel group [12][13][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price of JM2601 was 1,265.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton (- 0.4%); J2601 was 1,743.5 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.7%). There were changes in trading volume, position, and basis [16] - **News**: In October 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.2% year - on - year [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: There were price, trading volume, and position changes in different log futures contracts. Spot prices of some log varieties remained stable, while others had slight changes [19] - **News**: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10, 2025 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market declined last week and then rebounded, with an overall decline of 0.47%. The black sector led the decline, while precious metals and agricultural products rose. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as the possible end of the US government shutdown and mixed macro - economic indicators [1]. - Different commodity sectors, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, are expected to have short - term fluctuations based on their respective fundamentals and macro - economic factors [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - The commodity market fell 0.47% last week. The black sector dropped 2.62%, energy and chemicals fell 0.41% and 0.06% respectively, while precious metals and agricultural products rose 0.11% and 0.57% [1]. - Among specific varieties, rapeseed meal, pulp, and eggs had the highest increases of 6.32%, 3.49%, and 2.32% respectively, while asphalt, iron ore, and methanol had the largest declines of 6.04%, 4.94%, and 3.12% [1]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased, and the market scale increased by nearly 10 billion, with only the precious metals sector showing net capital outflows [1]. 2. Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: Officials' hawkish remarks and the uncertainty of the US government shutdown situation may keep the sector in high - level fluctuations in the short - term [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: With a neutral macro - environment and mixed fundamentals, the sector is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - **Black Metals**: With weakening demand, falling production, and increasing raw material pressure, the sector may continue to be supported by costs and fluctuate [2]. - **Energy**: The oversupply of crude oil and the impact of the US government shutdown on demand may lead to short - term oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Chemicals**: Cost support from coal and mixed demand expectations may result in short - term fluctuations and mid - term anti - arbitrage opportunities [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The reduction of US soybean tariffs and the weak rebound of palm oil may lead to different trends in different agricultural products, with some under pressure [3]. 3. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had negative weekly returns, with a total scale increase of 0.81%. Energy - chemical, soybean meal, non - ferrous metal, and silver ETFs also had different return and scale changes [35].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The valuation of steel is not high, but the rebound driving force is insufficient. In the short - term, the macro - economic outlook may be in a vacuum, and the focus is on industrial contradictions. The steel price is unlikely to be further suppressed, but there is no strong driving force for price increases. The overall industrial logic is a gradual decline in steel production, with potential for a sector - wide resonance increase later [2]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has declined, and prices are oscillating. The fundamentals have concerns such as high supply, large inventory de - stocking pressure, and weak downstream demand, so prices may be under pressure and oscillate [3][5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fourth round of price increases for coke has started, and the industrial pressure in the steel off - season has increased. The supply of coking coal is still tight, but the positive supply factors are weakening, and the negative demand factors are emerging. The sector is expected to be in a state of oscillation [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply of iron ore is relatively strong, mainly due to arrival rhythms. With the decline in molten iron production, the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the previous short positions can be held [7]. 3. Summary by Category **Futures Market Data** - **Futures Closing Prices and Changes**: On November 7, for far - month contracts (RB2605, HC2605, etc.), prices showed various changes. For example, RB2605 closed at 3095 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.03%); for near - month contracts (RB2601, HC2601, etc.), RB2601 closed at 3034 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.20%). There were also corresponding changes in cross - month spreads, basis, and other indicators [1]. **Steel** - **Market Situation**: Weekend steel spot prices dropped slightly, with a decline of 10 - 20 yuan, and trading volume was low. In the short - term, the macro - economic outlook is in a vacuum, and the focus is on industrial contradictions. The steel price is unlikely to be further suppressed, but there is no strong driving force for price increases. The long - term trend is a gradual decline in steel production, with potential for a sector - wide resonance increase later [2]. **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon** - **Market Situation**: Affected by external macro - factors, market sentiment has declined, and the prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have followed suit. The fundamentals have concerns such as high supply, large inventory de - stocking pressure, and weak downstream demand. Prices may be under pressure and oscillate, and future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [5]. **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Situation**: The fourth round of price increases for coke has started, and the spot market sentiment is average. The supply of coking coal is still tight, but the positive supply factors are weakening, and the negative demand factors are emerging. The steel off - season has increased industrial pressure, and the sector is expected to be in a state of oscillation [6]. **Iron Ore** - **Market Situation**: The short - term supply of iron ore is relatively strong, mainly due to arrival rhythms. With the decline in molten iron production, the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the previous short positions can be held [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market faces supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year, and short - term sanctions risks on Russian oil are easing. Consider bearish strategies [2]. - The precious metals market is waiting for new drivers, forming a high - level oscillation platform, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. - Various metal markets, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., show different trends. For example, copper consumption is a concern, aluminum has short - term upward resistance but large market divergence, and zinc has opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3][4][7]. - Energy - related products like fuel oil and asphalt have different trends. Fuel oil is affected by crude oil, and asphalt is in a downward trend due to weak demand [21][22]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and livestock products like pigs and eggs have their own market characteristics. For example, soybeans may have inventory reduction in Q1 next year, and pig prices may have a second bottom in H1 next year [36][41]. - Financial products like stocks and bonds also show specific trends. The stock market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term, and the bond market's yield curve steepening may end [48][49]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Metals Crude Oil - Last week, international oil prices declined, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.36%. The US government shutdown impacts the employment and jet - fuel demand. The supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year needs to be released, and short - term sanctions risks on Russian oil are easing. Consider bearish strategies [2]. Precious Metals - US economic data was stable last week, but the government shutdown brings uncertainties. The market is waiting for new drivers, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. Copper - Last Friday, copper prices oscillated negatively. The market focuses on copper consumption. China's un - wrought copper imports in October were low, and the US consumer confidence index was poor. Wait for the social inventory data and expect the previous up - rush to cool down. Wait and see [3]. Aluminum - On Friday, Shanghai aluminum prices declined. Since October, domestic inventory and spot performance have been neutral. Macroeconomic sentiment dominates, and the short - term upward resistance is around 21,800 yuan. The high index position reflects large market divergence, so beware of capital flow changes [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The Baotai ADC12 spot price is 20,900 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and tax policy adjustments are unclear. It follows aluminum price fluctuations and has no independent market for now [5]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, inventory is rising, and the supply - surplus situation persists. The spot price decline slows but remains at a discount. It will operate weakly with limited rebound space [6]. Zinc - Domestic zinc ore supply is tightening, and smelting costs are rising. The zinc ingot export window is open, and domestic inventory is falling. There is an expectation of over 10,000 - ton delivery at LME. Consider cross - market reverse arbitrage and short - term long positions on Shanghai zinc, with the upper pressure at 23,200 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - LME lead inventory is decreasing, and the import window is closed. Domestic refineries are resuming production, with tight raw materials and strong cost support. The market is in a multi - empty situation, and Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel opened high and closed low, with weak downstream demand. Although there are news of stainless - steel plant production cuts, the implementation needs to be observed. The inventory of pure nickel decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, while nickel - iron and stainless - steel inventory increased. Shanghai nickel is in a weak operation [9]. Tin - Last Friday, tin prices oscillated. There are differences in institutional inventory data. The tin market is in a game between short - term supply tightness and long - term supply stability. Tin prices are expected to decline with significant upper resistance. Consider short - selling strategies [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are rising again, with active trading. The total market inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 127,000 tons. The spot is supported, and the futures price is strengthening. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is affected by capacity - control policy expectations. In November, production cuts are expected in the southwest, and downstream silicon wafers are also reducing production. The inventory pressure relief is limited, and it will oscillate in the short term [12]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon production in Sichuan and Yunnan is at a low level during the dry season, and downstream polysilicon has seasonal production cuts. It shows a supply - demand weak pattern and will oscillate [13]. Steel Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On Friday night, steel prices oscillated weakly, and Tangshan billet prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton over the weekend. Rebar demand and production decreased, and the de - stocking slowed. Hot - rolled coil demand and production also declined, with a slight inventory increase. The market is under pressure, and pay attention to the support at the lower edge of the oscillation range [14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices declined last week. Global shipments are at a high level, and domestic arrivals have increased. Port inventory is rising. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and steel demand and iron - water production are decreasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. Coke - Coke prices oscillated upward. After the third - round price increase, there is an expectation of a fourth - round increase. Coke inventory decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate strongly [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated upward. Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, and terminal inventory increased slightly. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate strongly [17]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices oscillated strongly. Iron - water production is decreasing, while manganese silicon production is rising, and inventory is slowly increasing. The price has strong bottom support [18]. Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices oscillated strongly. Iron - water production is decreasing, but export and secondary demand are rising. Supply is high, and inventory is decreasing. The price has strong bottom support [19]. Shipping Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - Last week, the shipping order pressure existed, and the new SCFI European route price dropped by 1.6% week - on - week. In late November, the freight rate may rise. The upside space is limited, and it's advisable to wait and see. The fire at the TPP port may affect the rotation time of the Gemini European line [20]. Energy - Related Products Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market oscillates, mainly affected by crude oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong, but its continuous upward momentum is limited. High - sulfur fuel oil's supply will be more abundant in the medium - term. The spread between them may widen [21]. Asphalt - Asphalt has entered the off - season. The demand in the southwest and south can't offset the weakening in the north. Social inventory has been increasing year - on - year since late October. Refineries are cutting prices, and the market is bearish [22]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract oscillates narrowly. The chemical and combustion demand has increased, and the inventory rate of refineries and ports has decreased. The fundamentals support the LPG price [23]. Chemical Products Urea - Affected by the new export quota, urea prices rose over the weekend. Autumn fertilizer demand is ending, and production is high with limited inventory accumulation. India's new tender and domestic export liberalization boost the market, but be cautious when chasing long [24]. Methanol - Methanol futures oscillate at a low level. Iranian gas restrictions are delayed, and port inventory is high and rising. Downstream product profits are poor, and demand is weak. It will oscillate weakly until the inventory inflection point [25]. Pure Benzene - Last week, pure benzene prices declined. Port inventory increased, and production rose. The market will consolidate in the short term and face import and demand risks in the medium term. Consider month - spread reverse arbitrage [26]. Styrene - Styrene has insufficient cost support, and the inventory is high. The price will remain weak [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene is affected by falling oil prices, and demand is weak. Polyethylene has stable factory prices but cautious downstream purchases. Polypropylene's e - commerce inventory demand is disappointing, and new supply is expected [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC supply is high, and inventory is rising. Demand is affected by weather and exports. It will operate at a low level. Caustic soda oscillates at a low level, with weak downstream demand [29]. PX and PTA - PX supply increased, and PTA load decreased. Polyester and weaving loads changed slightly. PTA may have inventory accumulation in the medium term. Consider reverse arbitrage [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol production increased slightly, and port inventory rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand will weaken. Consider reverse arbitrage, and watch for possible production cuts [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the spot market is good, but profits are squeezed. In mid - late November, demand will weaken. Bottle - chip demand is weakening, and capacity is excessive [32]. Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are weak. After the Shahe production halt, prices rose but at a slower pace. Inventory is decreasing, and costs are rising. The decline space is limited, and keep the short - put option [33]. Rubber 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil prices oscillate, and Thai rubber prices vary. Global rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and Chinese tire production and inventory changed slightly. Rubber inventory increased, and cost support is weak. Consider oversold - rebound strategies and cross - variety arbitrage [34]. Chemical Fertilizers Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rose slightly. Supply is high, and inventory is high. The demand for heavy soda decreased due to glass production cuts. It's hard to fall in the short term [35]. Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Last Friday night, soybean prices oscillated weakly. Importing US soybeans has no price advantage, and domestic soybean inventory may decrease in Q1 next year. Watch for USDA reports and possible long - buying opportunities [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - US soybean prices declined. Palm oil rebounded, and it's necessary to watch if the rebound is sustainable. Consider the possibility of short - term stabilization of palm oil [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are under pressure due to low sales and limited export markets. Domestic prices will oscillate, and pay attention to Australian rapeseed imports [38]. Bean No. 1 - Bean No. 1 prices fell from a high level. The purchase of domestic soybeans by the state reserve may support the market. Watch for policy guidance [39]. Corn - Northeast corn prices are stable and rising slightly, and Shandong's supply increased. The import tax rate on US corn changed. The market will oscillate weakly at the bottom, and watch for new trade agreements [40]. Pigs - Pig prices were stable over the weekend. The sow inventory decreased in October. Future supply pressure is large, and prices may form a second bottom in H1 next year [41]. Eggs - Egg prices declined over the weekend, and sales were slow. The laying - hen inventory is high, and chick replenishment is low. Consider short - selling at high prices [42]. Cotton - US cotton prices declined. China's cotton procurement may increase. Domestic cotton cost supports the market, but demand is average. Watch for tariff changes and export improvements [43]. Sugar - US sugar prices oscillated. International sugar supply is abundant. In China, the focus is on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the outlook for Guangxi's production is good [44]. Apples - Apple prices oscillated widely. Apple inventory decreased, but the quality is poor, and the selling - reluctance is strong. Consider short - selling strategies [45]. Wood - Wood prices are weak. Supply import is limited due to high foreign prices, and demand supports the price. Inventory is low, and it's advisable to wait and see [46]. Pulp - Pulp prices oscillated upward. Port inventory decreased by 2.6% week - on - week. Demand is average, and the valuation is low. Consider long - buying at low prices or wait and see [47]. Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares oscillated and adjusted, with most futures contracts falling. The inflation data improved, and the US consumer confidence index was low. The stock market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Keep a mid - term focus on technology and advanced manufacturing and balance with cyclical and consumer sectors [48]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures declined, and short - term Shibor rates rose. The export growth was lower than expected. The yield curve steepening may end [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel demand has officially entered the off - season. Hot - rolled coil inventory risk still exists, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. Although demand is still weak in the short term, it is expected to turn around with policy implementation and macro - environmental changes [2]. - For the iron ore market, due to environmental protection restrictions and declining steel mill profits, iron ore demand continues to weaken, and inventory pressure remains. After the macro - events are realized, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, and the short - term ore price is still running weakly [5]. - For the manganese silicon and silicon iron market, the black - sector pricing has recently returned to fundamentals. The market is trying a "negative feedback" trade, but it is considered a temporary shock with limited downside space. It is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long rather than short. The subsequent upward height depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies [9][10]. - For the industrial silicon market, supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is stable. The price is expected to consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For the polysilicon market, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. The price increase depends on the actual progress of the platform company [15]. - For the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and local prices can be flexibly adjusted. For the soda ash market, it is expected to maintain a stable and volatile operation in the short term [18][19]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3034 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2399 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 59467 lots. The Tianjin aggregate price of rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregate price remained unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3245 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1490 tons, and the main - contract open interest increased by 240 lots. The Lecong aggregate price of hot - rolled coil decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregate price remained unchanged [1]. 3.1.2 Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar supply and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. Hot - rolled coil demand declined significantly, with inventory accumulating against the season. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 760.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.19% (- 17.00). The open interest increased by 21913 lots to 55.94 million lots. The weighted open interest was 97.96 million lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.82 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.41% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased, but it was still at a high level. In terms of demand, the daily average pig - iron output decreased, and steel mills increased maintenance. The port inventory increased, and the steel - mill inventory also rose. Fundamentally, iron ore demand continued to weaken, and inventory pressure remained. In the short term, the ore price was expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 750 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron 3.3.1 Market Information - On November 7, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.66% at 5760 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 110 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 1.07% at 5526 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5580 yuan/ton, with a basis of 54 yuan/ton [7]. - Last week, the manganese - silicon price fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 8 yuan/ton (- 0.14%). The silicon - iron price also fluctuated, with a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton (+ 0.62%) [8]. 3.3.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In November, the black - sector pricing returned to fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trade, but it was considered a temporary shock. It was more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese - ore situation. For silicon iron, it followed the electricity - price changes with low operational value [9][10]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon 3.4.1 Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9220 yuan/ton, up 1.71% (+ 155). The open interest increased by 35423 lots to 435728 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged, with a basis of 80 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 remained unchanged, with a basis of - 320 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In October, industrial - silicon production increased. In November, Southwest production was expected to decline. Demand from polysilicon decreased, and organic - silicon production was expected to be stable. Inventory was at a high level, and the price was expected to consolidate [13]. 3.5 Polysilicon 3.5.1 Market Information - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 53215 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The open interest increased by 3207 lots to 228759 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of - 1015 yuan/ton [14]. 3.5.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In November, polysilicon production decreased, and downstream silicon - wafer production was also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but short - term de - stocking was limited. The price increase depends on the progress of the platform company [15]. 3.6 Glass and Soda Ash 3.6.1 Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 1101 yuan/ton, up 0.36% (+ 4). The North China large - plate price remained unchanged, and the Central China price increased by 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 265.40 million cases (- 4.03%) [17]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton, up 1.00% (+ 12). The Shahe heavy - soda price increased by 12 yuan. The weekly inventory of sample enterprises increased by 1.22 million tons (4.03%) [18]. 3.6.2 Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and local prices can be flexibly adjusted. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and production - capacity changes [18]. - Soda ash: The domestic market was stable, and the short - term market was expected to maintain a stable and volatile operation [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the restructuring of global trade patterns accelerated by the 2025 U.S. tariff policy, leading to a reconfiguration of global industrial division and macro order, which may significantly increase asset volatility and economic uncertainty [2][8]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Supply Challenges - Geopolitical tensions and resource protectionism are expected to further challenge the already fragile supply elasticity in energy and metal markets, with a decade-long down cycle in upstream investments leading to unstable existing supplies and insufficient incremental supplies [5][16]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and resource protectionism are likely to increase macro uncertainties, further challenging the supply elasticity in energy and metal markets [5][23]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics and Energy Transition - The focus on strategic security is shifting demand-side attention towards energy transition and reserve construction, indicating that energy transition remains a significant trend and reserve building is essential for strategic commodities [5][36]. - The global energy system has seen a new round of investment expansion since 2021, with a significant shift towards renewable energy and related sectors, reflecting a steady advancement in energy transition [36][39]. Group 3: Emerging Demand and Industrialization - Emerging demand is gaining momentum, driven by AI narratives and the ongoing electrification trend, which is expected to provide sustained demand growth for commodities like copper [6][48]. - The restructuring of trade patterns and industrial division is likely to support the industrialization processes in emerging economies, with significant demand potential from countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [6][56]. Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook for 2026 - The article anticipates that geopolitical tensions, resource security demands, and emerging demand growth will form a "triple play" for the commodity market as it enters a new chapter [2][8]. - The supply-demand balance in the commodity market is expected to improve marginally in 2026, with a focus on micro-level differences and fundamental changes in various commodities [58][60]. Group 5: Specific Commodity Insights - The copper market is projected to face a supply gap due to insufficient upstream investment and increasing demand from electrification, with prices expected to remain elevated [68]. - The oil market may experience a shift from surplus to a more balanced state, with potential upward price adjustments driven by geopolitical risks and supply constraints [64][65]. - Agricultural commodities are expected to see a gradual recovery, influenced by trade policies, weather risks, and the growth of biofuels [70][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. With high inventory, the supply - demand drive remains under pressure, but the strength of coking coal provides cost support for steel prices. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures market will operate in a weak and volatile manner [1]. - Iron Ore: In the short term, the supply has decreased, demand has weakened, and inventory has increased. The ore price shows a weak and volatile trend [1]. - Coking Coal: The supply of some high - quality resources is still tight, and the demand for high - quality coking coal is strong. However, the acceptance of some high - priced resources by downstream is low. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures market will operate in a wide - range volatile manner [1]. - Coke: The third round of price increases has been implemented, but the steel market is entering the off - season, and the demand for coke has declined slightly. It is expected that the short - term coke futures market will operate in a wide - range volatile manner [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The market sentiment is boosted, and the cost side provides some support, but the overall fundamental driving force is limited. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term [1][3]. - Silicon Iron: The cost support has increased, but the driving force for continuous upward movement is limited. It is expected to operate in a firm and volatile manner in the short term, subject to market sentiment and the pricing of the new round of steel tenders [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3037 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.43%, with a decrease of 11,400 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and the national building materials trading volume was 110,300 tons. The rebar production, inventory decline, and apparent demand all showed a weak trend [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2601 of iron ore futures closed at 777.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2%, with a trading volume of 260,000 lots and a reduction of 7,000 lots in positions. The supply decreased, demand weakened, and inventory increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1290.5 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 1.73%, with an increase of 30,130 lots in positions. The supply of some high - quality resources is tight, and the demand for high - quality coking coal is strong [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1776.5 yuan/ton, up 23.5 yuan/ton or 1.34%, with a decrease of 248 lots in positions. The third round of price increases was implemented, but the demand declined slightly [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract of manganese silicon futures closed at 5798 yuan/ton, up 0.73%, with a decrease of 2,290 lots in positions to 351,100 lots. The supply was relatively stable, demand was low, and inventory was under pressure [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The main contract of silicon iron futures closed at 5586 yuan/ton, up 1.34%, with an increase of 831 lots in positions to 169,600 lots. The cost support increased, but the driving force for continuous upward movement was limited [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various varieties (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) are provided, along with their changes compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Price Spreads**: Information on profits (e.g., rebar disk profit, long - process profit) and price spreads (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) is presented, including their latest values and changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [5][6][7][10][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron over different time periods [15][16][17][20][22]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads of different contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 10) for various varieties [24][25][27][31][33][34][37][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) [43][44][45][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: The assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: The director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, with rich experience in the field of power coal [54]. - **Liu Xi**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [55].