投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 n 资产观点：国内权益市场的政策预期和额外流动性依然可以提供上⾏的 ⽀撑。国债整体中性，短端机会好于⻓端，但赔率有限。贵⾦属中的⻩⾦ 维持多头标配，⽩银暂时观望。有⾊⾦属在产业逻辑⽀撑下仍然向好，但 短期内市场挤压拥挤交易泡沫，待市场波动率降低同时，可抓住短期下跌 的机会逢低布局。⿊⾊商品整体偏震荡，原油或在地缘⽀撑下有所上⾏， 但不确定性较⼤，因此建议保持观望。 n ⻛险提⽰：地缘冲突加剧⻛险，关税冲突⼴泛升级，国内增量政策和经 济修复不及预期，美联储货币政策⼤幅偏离预期。 • 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属涨幅居前。 n 今⽇市场：根据Wind数据，今日国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属 涨幅居前，铂金涨10.58%；基本金属全部上涨，沪锡涨6.61%；非金属建 材全部上涨，玻璃涨0.56%；化工品跌幅居前，苯乙烯跌2.87%；农副产品 多数下跌，原木跌1.90%；黑色系全部下跌，硅铁跌1.44%；能源品全部下 跌，低硫燃料油跌1.22%；新能源材料多数下跌，工业硅跌0.82%；航运期 货全部下跌，集运指数(欧线)跌0.39%；油脂油料多数下跌，豆粕跌0. ...

今日盘面馈性下挫。随着春节临近，螺纹表需加速下滑，产量同步回落，库存继续累积。热卷需求有所回落，产量短期趋稳, 库存小幅累积。钢厂利润欠佳，下游承接能力不足，高炉复产放缓，铁水产量趋稳。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大， 基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依然偏弱，钢材出口维持高位。需求预期偏弱，市场人气低迷，盘面短期延续缩量 阴跌走势，关注区间下沿支撑及市场风向变化。 | | | 【铁矿】 | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2026年02月09日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | ...

| | | | | | | | | Hart Ave EN | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/09 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | | | | | | 6000 | | | 400 | | | (元/吨) | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent significant drop in lithium carbonate prices, which fell over 10% in a single day, driven by weak market sentiment, regulatory expectations, and a weak fundamental backdrop [2][4]. - Market sentiment has turned negative across the commodity sector, particularly affecting non-ferrous and precious metals, with speculative funds opting to cash out, exacerbating price declines [3][4]. - Regulatory expectations have intensified, with signals from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and futures exchanges indicating stricter measures to curb irrational competition and excessive speculation, leading to a significant reduction in futures positions [3][4]. Group 2 - In the short term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness, fragile market sentiment, and stringent regulatory oversight, potentially leading to further testing of lower price points [5][6]. - However, medium to long-term support for prices remains intact, with supply constraints expected due to seasonal maintenance in lithium salt plants and anticipated demand recovery post-holiday, particularly in the battery sector [6][7]. - The market may require stabilization in macro sentiment and a strong recovery in demand post-holiday to regain strength, with key indicators being the production recovery of downstream battery manufacturers and potential export surges [8][9]. Group 3 - The article discusses the contrasting dynamics between the futures and spot markets, noting that while futures have seen speculative excitement, the spot market remains subdued due to high inventory levels and weak demand from downstream sectors [12][13]. - The analysis indicates that the current market conditions are influenced by deeper factors, including cost pressures and industry competition, which are complicating price transmission across the supply chain [14]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the distinct behaviors of precious and industrial metals, with industrial metals often acting as economic barometers while precious metals respond to broader economic uncertainties [15][17]. Group 4 - The article outlines the recent volatility in the silver market, attributing the dramatic price movements to high leverage and speculative trading, which can lead to rapid market corrections [66][67]. - It highlights the historical context of silver's price fluctuations, drawing parallels with past market events that resulted in significant downturns due to similar speculative behaviors and market conditions [71][72]. - The article concludes with a cautionary note on the risks associated with leveraged trading, particularly in volatile markets, emphasizing the need for careful risk management [75][76].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, indicating a clear downward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆, indicating a clear downward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Iron: ★☆★, indicating a complex situation with some bullish factors [1] Core Views - The overall market sentiment is bearish, and most varieties are under pressure in the short - term. The market is affected by factors such as weak domestic demand, high inventories, and profit pressures on steel mills [1] - The supply of carbon - containing elements (coke and coking coal) is abundant, and downstream demand is in the off - season. Prices are likely to fluctuate within a range [3][5] - For iron ore, the supply is relatively loose, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [2] - Silicon manganese and silicon iron are affected by factors such as supply surplus and the "anti - involution" concept, with prices showing certain fluctuations [6][7] Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices continued to decline. Thread demand and production both decreased this week, while inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - roll demand declined, production was stable in the short - term, and inventory slightly increased [1] - Steel mill profits are poor, downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, blast furnace复产 has slowed down, and hot - metal production has stabilized [1] - From the perspective of downstream industries, real - estate investment decline has widened, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth has continued to fall, domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports remain high [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron - ore futures prices fell. Globally, the shipping volume is at a seasonal low. Although Australia has entered the hurricane season, the impact on production and shipping is limited [2] - China's port arrivals are relatively strong year - on - year, and port inventories have continued to accumulate to a historical high this week. There is still some structural support in the short - term [2] - In the off - season, terminal demand has weakened. Hot - metal production has slightly increased, but there is no significant motivation for复产 in the short - term. As the Spring Festival approaches, steel - mill inventory replenishment is coming to an end [2] Coke - Today's coke prices fluctuated downward. Coking profits are average, and daily production has slightly decreased. Coke inventories have slightly increased, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [3] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream hot - metal production is at an off - season level, steel profits are average, and the downstream has a strong willingness to suppress raw - material prices [3] - The coke futures price is at a premium, and the coking - coal futures price is at a premium to Mongolian coal. The market has certain expectations for the "anti - involution" policy. Mongolian coal customs - clearance data shows a slight seasonal decline. Affected by the overall market sentiment, coking - coal prices are unlikely to decline significantly and are likely to fluctuate within a range [3][5] Coking Coal - Today's coking - coal prices fluctuated downward. Yesterday, the customs - clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,261 trucks. Coking - coal mine production has slightly increased [5] - Spot auction transactions are inversely proportional to the futures price fluctuations. Affected by the volatile futures prices, transaction prices have mainly decreased slightly, and terminal inventories have increased significantly [5] - The total coking - coal inventory has increased significantly, production - end inventories have slightly increased, and winter - storage demand is coming to an end [5] Silicon Manganese - Today's silicon - manganese prices mainly fluctuated. The transaction price of spot manganese ore has slightly decreased. The futures market has entered a non - arbitrage space, and the downward space is relatively small. The market is waiting for steel tenders [6] - Manganese - ore port inventories may start to slowly accumulate. Although mine shipments have increased month - on - month, mine costs have increased compared to previous years, and the price - concession space may be relatively limited [6] - Hot - metal production is at a seasonal low. Silicon - manganese weekly production has slightly increased, and there is no significant driving force for a large - scale decline [6] Silicon Iron - Today's silicon - iron prices mainly fluctuated. In some production areas, power costs have indeed decreased, and the price of blue charcoal has slightly decreased. The main production areas are still mainly in a loss state [7] - Hot - metal production is at an off - season level. Export demand remains above 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Magnesium - metal production has continued to increase month - on - month, and secondary demand has marginally increased. Overall demand still has some resilience [7] - Silicon - iron supply has changed little, and inventories have slightly decreased. Prices are affected by supply surplus and the repeated fermentation of the "anti - involution" concept [7]

黑色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面略有下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3101 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 弱势整理 | | | 下跌 9 元/吨，跌幅为 0.29%，持仓增加 4.94 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交基本停滞，唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2920 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3170 元/吨，全国建材成交量 2.79 万 | | | | 吨。据我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回落 8.15 万吨至 191.68 万吨，农历同比减少 1.61 万吨；社 | | | | 库环比回升 39.52 万吨至 365.92 万吨，农历同比增加 65.3 万吨；厂库环比回升 4.52 万吨至 153.65 万吨， | | | | 农历同比增加 28.28 万吨；螺纹表需环比回落 28.76 万吨至 147.64 万吨，农历同比减少 37.51 万吨。螺纹 | | | | 产量明显回落，库存累积幅度加快，表需大幅下降 ...

■ 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤(蒙古,A10%,V27%. 0. 期货收盘价(活跃合约):佳煤 3500 400 3000 2500 200 2000 1500 1000 500 conserval. 40 +7800 Corporation Color Color Production Color Production Color Production Color Production l – EZDZ 80-5202 2008-10202 POSZOZ 焦炭基差(右轴) 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级治金焦(A13. 期货收益价(活跃合约 1200 1000 铁矿县差(右轴) 供给端,整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏高。合金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足,中期供给过测压力仍不减。宏观尤 面,国内宏观政策加速出台,岁末年初稳经济需求下,刺激政策利好为主。"双碳"和反内卷目标下,产业政策对双硅的 给形成扰动和成本支撑预期。总体看来,近期双硅基本面延续承压,供需双弱,短期市场情绪主导为主,双硅价格震荡, 【焦煤焦炭】盘面逐渐走弱 现货端。焦炭市场稳中偏弱运行,市场交投氛围逐渐冷清,港口贸易准一湿熄焦1 ...

证券时报记者 魏书光 伍超明认为，上游价格能否顺畅地传导至中下游，是决定PPI回升幅度与持续性的关键。而这一传导机制能否畅 通，根本上取决于终端需求的恢复程度。随着内需政策的持续推进，预计今年PPI同比有望于4月—5月转正，全年 呈"前快后稳"走势。 "传统的上游价格向下游传导的机制在2012年之后发生了明显变化，CPI与PPI走势持续背离。"银河证券首席宏观 分析师张迪基于实证数据表示，在终端需求相对扩张、政策协同发力的阶段，生产端价格变动更容易向消费端传 导，PPI对CPI的正向影响相对显著。不过，在经济结构调整深化、内需不足或国际大宗商品价格波动但终端需求 承接能力有限的阶段，价格传导机制则明显弱化甚至阶段性失效。值得关注的是，随着近年来需求约束特征凸 显，消费价格对生产价格的反向约束作用有所增强。 当前，宏观层面已发出明确信号，共同指向2026年物价将趋势回升。2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，预计政策 重心将进一步向国内经济聚焦，从供需两端协同发力。在需求侧，中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导"置于重点 工作首位，着力提振消费，并推动投资止跌回稳。在上述政策合力下，物价走势温和回升将成为大概率事件。 ...

Core Insights - In January 2026, China's Commodity Price Index (CBPI) reached 125.3 points, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, the highest since July 2022 [1] - The increase in the index is attributed to optimistic business expectations and ongoing production expansion, supported by new policies, while also facing challenges from international geopolitical changes and commodity price volatility [1] Industry Analysis - The non-ferrous price index surged to 159.6 points, with a month-on-month increase of 9.9% and a year-on-year increase of 26.6% [2] - The chemical price index rose to 99.3 points, showing a month-on-month increase of 3.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [2] - The black metal price index increased to 79.2 points, with a month-on-month rise of 2.2% and a year-on-year decline of 1.6% [2] - The agricultural product price index slightly increased to 98.3 points, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [2] - The mineral price index fell to 71.3 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [2] - The energy price index declined to 94.6 points, with a month-on-month drop of 3.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.6% [2] Commodity Performance - Among 50 monitored commodities, 33 (66%) saw price increases, while 17 (34%) experienced price declines in January compared to December 2025 [2] - The top three commodities with the highest price increases were lithium carbonate (up 48.4%), refined tin (up 20.2%), and refined nickel (up 19.5%) [2] - The commodities with the largest price declines were corrugated paper (down 13.1%), caustic soda (down 7%), and coke (down 6.9%) [2] Geopolitical and Market Trends - Tensions in North America and the Middle East, along with a weakening US dollar, have contributed to rising international oil prices and record highs in copper prices [3] - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs in January, but significant declines were observed towards the end of the month due to margin adjustments and Federal Reserve announcements [3] - Future projections suggest that gold prices may experience both upward trends and volatility, with ongoing geopolitical risks providing long-term support despite short-term fluctuations [3]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively declined, with the exception of lead, which fell by 0.27%. Tin led the decline with a drop of 7.01%, while copper fell by 3.76% and aluminum by 2.2%. Zinc and nickel also saw declines of over 1%, with zinc down 1.77% and nickel down 1.11% [1] - Lithium carbonate experienced a significant drop of 10.68%, hitting a limit down before slightly recovering. Other materials like polysilicon and industrial silicon fell by 1.52% and 2.77%, respectively [1] - In the black metals sector, all except stainless steel saw declines, with iron ore down 1.73% and coking coal down 2.25% [1] - In the external market, base metals also showed a downward trend, with tin leading the decline at 4.38% [1][2] Precious Metals - Precious metals saw declines, with COMEX gold down 0.53% and COMEX silver experiencing a significant drop of 8.34%. In the domestic market, Shanghai gold fell by 1.35% and Shanghai silver dropped by 10.85% [1][2] Macro Environment - The State Administration for Market Regulation announced plans to handle 14,600 cases of unfair competition by 2025, aiming to mitigate "price wars" and "subsidy wars" [5] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 645 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating liquidity management in the market [7] - The dollar index showed a slight increase of 0.06%, reflecting market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [8]