Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - China's financial data in July showed steady growth, and the A-share market strengthened with increased trading volume. The economy in July still had resilience, with positive policies and various economic indicators showing certain trends. For example, China's July exports increased, and the narrowing M2 - M1 gap indicated improved capital circulation efficiency. In the US, the July non - farm data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved, and inflation showed different trends [2]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of "reciprocal tariffs." The US has set new tariff standards, and the current tariff situation may affect goods with high external demand. Concerns about interest rate hikes and market liquidity shortages have increased, and the demand for Japanese government bond auctions has decreased [3]. - Different commodity sectors have different characteristics. The black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to the domestic supply - side, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations, and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products and the follow - up trends of "anti - involution" in the market are worthy of attention [4]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in July: The official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, the new order index dropped to 49.4, non - manufacturing remained in expansion, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, CPI was flat year - on - year, PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. The US's July non - farm data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved, and inflation showed different trends. On August 13, the A - share market strengthened, and trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan [2]. Tariff and Interest Rate - The US has set new "reciprocal tariff" standards, and the current tariff situation is in a "stagnant" stage, which may affect external - demand - sensitive goods. After the July interest rate meeting, the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is uncertain, and concerns about interest rate hikes and market liquidity shortages have increased, leading to a decrease in the demand for Japanese government bond auctions [3]. Commodity Analysis - Different commodity sectors: The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists, the energy sector's medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose (OPEC + plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August), and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations. After the start of the "anti - involution" market in July, major varieties have retreated to some extent, and future trends will depend on the restoration of the economic fundamentals before the introduction of reciprocal tariffs in April and the implementation of "anti - involution" [4]. Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Key News - China's financial data from January to July: RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan (up 8.8% year - on - year), M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan (up 5.6% year - on - year), M0 was 13.28 trillion yuan (up 11.8% year - on - year), and the net cash injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan. The social financing scale from January to July was 23.99 trillion yuan [6]. - Other news: The IEA predicts that the global oil market will face a record supply surplus next year. Trump will meet with Putin to discuss the Ukraine crisis. The A - share market strengthened on August 13, and the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan [2][4][6].

Group 1 - The concept of "involution" refers to a process where internal complexity increases under external constraints, leading to ineffective competition and diminishing returns on effort [1][8][14] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address excessive competition and improve resource allocation efficiency, particularly in industries like steel and agriculture, where profit margins have been severely compressed [3][14][21] - The current economic structure in China shows a mismatch between supply and demand, with overcapacity in traditional industries and insufficient consumer demand, necessitating a shift towards high-quality development [20][25][30] Group 2 - The central government has established a comprehensive policy framework to combat "involution," which includes legal reforms, industry regulations, and measures to enhance labor rights [2][31][34] - Specific industries such as non-ferrous metals, photovoltaics, and automobiles are experiencing heightened scrutiny and regulatory measures to curb "involution" and promote sustainable growth [2][36][38] - The automotive industry is particularly affected by price wars, which threaten profitability and product quality, prompting calls for adherence to fair competition principles [43] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to stabilize industrial product prices and improve industry concentration, as seen in previous supply-side reforms that led to significant profit recovery in sectors like steel [3][4][14] - The photovoltaic industry faces challenges from low-cost competition, which has led to a decline in profit margins and necessitates a focus on innovation and quality improvement [38][42] - The non-ferrous metals sector is undergoing adjustments to address overcapacity and ensure sustainable development, with new regulations aimed at balancing supply and demand [36][37] Group 4 - Future policies will focus on creating a unified national market and optimizing competition order, with an emphasis on preventing price dumping and promoting industry self-regulation [4][31] - The relationship between "anti-involution" and the establishment of a unified market is crucial for addressing market distortions and fostering a fair competitive environment [4][31] - The ongoing adjustments in various industries highlight the need for a coordinated approach to manage capacity and enhance overall market efficiency [2][36][38]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are oscillating with improved trading volume. The policy may enter a vacuum period, and the impact of the Tangshan production - restriction policy is expected to be limited. Focus on the possible mismatch in the low - inventory environment. Steel prices are currently stable, with support from the electric - arc furnace valley - electricity cost and upward elasticity depending on market sentiment and demand strength [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, macro policies are mainly positive, and prices are on the strong side. Although the anti - involution policy expectation is uncertain, previous trading logic continues to support prices. The supply is slightly increasing, and inventory is being depleted, but the high inventory still poses a challenge [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the impact of over - production inspection is ongoing, and the market is still betting on "anti - involution". The sixth round of coke price increase is yet to be confirmed. The coking coal supply is tightened, but the price faces upward pressure. The market is volatile, and light - position participation is recommended, with key time points to watch [6]. - For iron ore, the anti - involution sentiment is rising again. The direction of the black sector depends on coking coal. Iron ore supply is expected to increase, but the "anti - involution" policy may have a trend - setting impact. The lower support for iron ore is still effective, and there may be an upward opportunity after adjustment [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts (August 11)**: RB2601 closed at 3319 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan (1.10%); HC2601 at 3461 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan (1.20%); I2601 at 789 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (1.94%); J2601 at 1759.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (1.73%); JM2605 at 1285 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (2.39%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts (August 11)**: RB2510 closed at 3250 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan (1.09%); HC2510 at 3465 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan (1.29%); I2509 at 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan (0.82%); J2509 at 1681 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan (1.97%); JM2601 at 1256 yuan/ton, up 36.5 yuan (2.99%) [1]. - **Spread and Basis**: On August 11, RB2510 - 2601 spread was - 69 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; HC2510 - 2601 spread was 4 yuan, up 5 yuan. The basis for HC, RB, I, J, and JM had different values and changes [1]. Steel Industry - **Price and Trading Volume**: On Monday, futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices followed suit. The trading volume of building materials trade increased to over 120,000 tons, and speculative demand improved [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Domestic policies may enter a vacuum period. The Tangshan production - restriction policy is mild, and its overall impact on production is expected to be limited [3]. - **Industry Reality**: Last week, hot - rolled coil supply and demand were both weak, while building materials showed strong supply and demand. Steel exports are still at a high level, but the marginal weakening is observed [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Unilaterally, focus on the electric - arc furnace valley - electricity cost support; for arbitrage, do long on the 01 hot - rolled coil - rebar spread; there are partial profit - taking opportunities for basis, and conduct rolling operations in the spot - futures market [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Situation**: Macro policies are positive, and demand - side factors support prices. The anti - involution policy has an impact on supply and cost. The supply is slightly increasing, and inventory is being depleted, but high inventory remains a problem [4]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The sixth - round coke price increase is yet to be confirmed. Coking coal supply is tightened due to production inspection and natural factors. The market is betting on "anti - involution", but the price faces upward pressure as downstream acceptance of high - priced resources decreases [6]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The black sector is oscillating, and the direction depends on coking coal. Iron ore supply is expected to increase, but the "anti - involution" policy may have a significant impact. The lower support for iron ore is effective, and there may be an upward opportunity after adjustment [6]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Consider doing long on the 9 - 1 spread as it has shrunk to a historically low level [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, with investment advice such as "oscillating repeatedly," "broadly oscillating," and "bullishly oscillating" [5][10][14]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day; the previous day's position was 271,889 lots, a decrease of 36,188 lots; spot prices of imported and domestic ores all increased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating due to sector sentiment resonance [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,250 yuan/ton and 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.09% and 1.29% respectively; spot prices in various regions showed different degrees of increase or remained unchanged [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 5.6% month-on-month; in July, automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year; in late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month-on-month, pig iron decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, and steel increased by 0.5% month-on-month; according to the weekly data of Steel Union on August 7, the output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, hot-rolled coils decreased by 7.9 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 23.47 tons [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of ferrosilicon 2509 and 2510 were 5,830 yuan/ton and 5,820 yuan/ton respectively; the previous day's futures closing prices of silicomanganese 2509 and 2510 were 6,100 yuan/ton and 6,112 yuan/ton respectively; spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,450 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 8, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Qinghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Gansu increased by 50 yuan/ton; the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,850 - 5,950 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the total manganese ore inventory increased by 8.83 tons month-on-month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Bullishly oscillating [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2509 and J2509 were 1,106.5 yuan/ton and 1,681 yuan/ton, up 3.5% and 1.7% respectively; most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [19]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease; most spot prices remained unchanged [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [23].

| | | | 11/11/11/2 | SDIC FUTURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月11日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆★ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 鐵硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡走强。螺纹表需、产量均有所上升，库存继续累积。热卷表需明显回落，产量也有所下滑，库存继续累积。铁水 产量温和回落，整体维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，关注后期唐山等地限产力度。从下游行业看，地产投资 继续大幅下滑，基建增速放缓，制造业景气程度放 ...

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（8.11） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 现货价格 基差 | 涨跌幅 | | | | 螺纹 | 3250 35 80 | 1.09% | 3330 | | | 热卷 | 3465 44 | 1.29% | 3460 | -5 | | 铁矿 | 796.5 6.5 | 0.82% | 769 | -27.5 | | 焦煤 | 1256 36.5 | 2.99% | 980 | -276 | | 焦炭 | 1681 32.5 | 1.97% | 1431 | -250 | | | 市场概况 | | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货整体偏多头。螺纹收于3250元/吨，上涨1.09%；热卷主力 | | | | | | 合约收于3465元/吨，上涨1.29%；铁矿今日主力合约收于796.5元/吨；双焦今 | | | | | | 天上涨，焦煤继续领涨涨幅接近3%。 | | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | | 需求方面，上周Mysteel统计247家钢厂日均铁水产量为240.32万吨，环比上周 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating repeatedly [2] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [2] - Coke: Strong - biased oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Strong - biased oscillation [2] - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [2] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, along with their fundamental data and macro - industry news, helping investors understand the market situation of these commodities [2][5][8] Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday's futures closing price was 790.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton (-0.38%); yesterday's position was 308,077 hands, down 27,288 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [5] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [5] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,213 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.71%); for HC2510, it was 3,428 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.55%). Spot prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline or stability. There were also changes in basis and spreads [8] - **Macro & Industry News**: In late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month - on - month, pig iron by 4.5%, and steel increased by 0.5%. On August 7, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also decreased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [12] - **Macro & Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions; a manganese mine enterprise signed a long - term contract; manganese ore inventory in ports changed [13][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of JM2509 and J2509 declined. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different trends, and there were changes in basis and spreads [15] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions also had different trends [19] - **Macro & Industry News**: In July, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]

周周芝道 - 反内卷下大宗怎么看 20250810 摘要 美联储降息预期提前，流动性宽松或加速，尽管非农数据引发美股短暂 下跌，但市场迅速转向定价宽松，预示未来政策变化可能对市场产生重 要影响。 国内政策方面，预计 7 月底政治局会议后两个月内难有强劲内需政策出 台，最早或在 10 月底出现调整，美国经济数据和中美贸易谈判进展将 是关键观察点。 反内卷政策被市场解读为涨价逻辑，实则是走出通缩的重要环节，对大 宗商品市场产生显著影响，尤其国内黑色金属在长期熊市后出现反弹。 下半年大宗商品价格受海内外因素共振影响，国内政策短期内难有强刺 激，海外美联储货币政策宽松将影响全球流动性，需密切关注美国经济 数据和中美贸易谈判。 黄金市场在 5 月出现分水岭，结束 4 月牛市行情转为震荡调整，受全球 贸易框架清晰和权益市场向好影响，避险需求减弱，但中长期去美元化 逻辑仍支撑金价。 Q&A 上周全球大类资产的表现如何？ 上周全球大类资产的整体趋势是流动性驱动。中国股票市场风险偏好较高，利 率开始下降，债券市场利率也有所降低，这反映了基本面反弹和大宗商品持续 性反弹预期的降温。海外方面，美国经济软着陆的预期逐渐被流动性宽松所 ...

数据来源：国家统计局 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国黑色金属行业市场研究分析及前景战略研判报告》 根据国家统计局公布的数据，黑色金属类别下的普通中板（20mm，Q235）2025年7月下旬市场价格为 3526.3元/吨，同比下滑0.8%，环比上涨3.63%，纵观近5年同时期其价格，2021年7月下旬达到最大值， 有5688.1元/吨。 ...

数据来源：国家统计局 根据国家统计局公布的数据，黑色金属类别下的热轧普通板卷（4.75—11.5mm，Q235）2025年7月下旬 市场价格为3474.3元/吨，同比下滑1.89%，环比上涨5.31%，纵观近5年同时期其价格，2021年7月下旬 达到最大值，有5931.7元/吨。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国黑色金属行业市场研究分析及前景战略研判报告》 ...