1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the Russia - Ukraine conflict, continues to impact various markets, causing uncertainties and fluctuations in financial and commodity markets [1][11][18]. - Market sentiment and trading volumes are affected by holidays such as Christmas and New Year, leading to relatively light trading and narrow - range fluctuations in some markets [1][2]. - Different industries show different trends. For example, some commodities are expected to be affected by supply - demand changes, policy adjustments, and cost factors, resulting in price fluctuations and investment opportunities [25][36][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Key issue in the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan" regarding territory remains unresolved. After Christmas, overseas market trading is light. On Friday, gold price rose 1%, and silver price soared 10% due to a short - squeeze. The short - squeeze may be nearing its end. With the New Year's holiday approaching and the exchange increasing margin requirements, short - term market volatility is expected to intensify. It is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [1][11]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is likely to continue as the territorial issue remains unresolved, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery, increasing geopolitical risks. Although the market is trading lightly, the year - end seasonal performance of US stocks is strong, and the market risk appetite remains high. US stocks are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 36.8 billion yuan. The problem of fragile institutional trading behavior is being alleviated, and long - term bonds are in the process of bottom - building. It is not recommended to chase short - term varieties. Long - term varieties are suitable for allocation when interest rates rise, and trading positions can buy on dips and exit quickly [20][21]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market has shown a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an 8 - day consecutive increase. The market sentiment is positive, and it is recommended to allocate evenly in long positions of each stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the week of December 20 - 26, 2025, the actual soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills decreased. In December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased. Although palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in December, the supply pressure is gradually easing. It is recommended to wait for further signals of supply pressure release before going long on palm oil. For international and domestic soybean oil, there are potential factors for price increases, but the impact may be limited due to sufficient inventory [25][26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills in January 2026 is expected to increase year - on - year. The domestic market is mainly affected by customs policies and national reserves. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to these two factors, which will mainly affect the unilateral trend of the March contract and the 3 - 5 spread [27][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease by 5%. Thailand's sugar production progress is slow, and the international sugar market's supply - demand may tighten in the first quarter. However, the overall supply surplus expectation limits the upward driving force. Domestically, new sugar production is accelerating, and the upward space of the market is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the overseas market's driving effect and the terminal's stocking demand [31][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In November 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the off - season. As of December 11, the weekly signing data of US upland cotton was strong, but the export signing progress for the 25/26 season still lags. Zhengzhou cotton has increased in position and broken through previous highs, mainly due to speculation on the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the rise of chemical fiber futures prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream transmission situation and the risk of a decline due to capital withdrawal [34][36][38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Before the New Year's Day holiday, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate. The de - stocking speed of the five major steel products has not changed significantly, and the finished products have not yet entered the inventory - accumulation stage. It is necessary to pay attention to the export policy changes at the beginning of the year. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [41][42]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro and capital factors continue to drive copper prices up, and the short - term upward momentum is not weak. The fundamental situation deviates from the capital situation. Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, and a long - term bullish strategy is recommended for the medium - term [45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the inventory is rising. In the off - season of demand from January to February, polysilicon may be "priced but not traded", but the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips and hold positions carefully [47][48]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in some regions has changed slightly, and the inventory is increasing. The current production reduction scale is not enough to reverse the inventory - accumulation pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to sell short on rebounds [50]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The spot price difference of lead is in a discount state. The supply of recycled lead may be tightened due to environmental protection. The terminal demand is differentiated, and the inventory is declining. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The raw material inventory of smelters has increased, and the demand has recovered slightly. The domestic social inventory has decreased, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in January. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and easy to rise but difficult to fall in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips [56][57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A company has terminated a nickel project. The Indonesian government plans to adjust the nickel production quota and the tax - calculation formula, which may increase the smelting cost. The nickel market is currently in surplus, and it is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits and pay attention to the implementation of Indonesian policies [59][61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The price of lithium carbonate has risen sharply, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply may decline slightly in January, and the demand side has many production - reduction and maintenance news. It is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits, not chase the high, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [64][65]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has been oscillating. The expected reduction of quota supply in 2026 is expected to support the price in the long - term, but short - term profit - taking by some investors may suppress the upward momentum. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [66][67]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia has extended the export ban on gasoline and diesel to February 2026. Geopolitical conflicts and supply - surplus expectations are disturbing the market. Oil prices are expected to oscillate and find the bottom in the process of verifying the surplus [68][69][70]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export prices of polyester bottle chips have risen, and the market trading atmosphere is good. With the commissioning of new devices and the restart of previously overhauled devices, the processing cost pressure may increase. The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the rise of polyester raw materials [71][73].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月26日 【原油】 昨日外盘因圣诞假期休市，内盘油价震荡运行。俄罗斯黑海港口码头遇袭，恶劣天气导致维修进度 缓慢，哈萨克斯坦12月CPC混合原油出口将降至14个月最低水平。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动 虽降至数年新低，然而由于产量调整存在时滞，美国原油产量仍维持在年内高位。美委地缘冲突一 度引发市场对原油供应中断担忧,然基本面宽松主基调未改,她缘犹动更倾向于提供阶段性反弹动 力,警惕市场交易焦点由地缘局势升级切换至由远期供需宽松格局所主导的"价格中枢下移"这一 核心逻辑。 【责金属】 隔夜外盘圣诞节休市,国内金银延续偏强趋势,广期所调整街翘最小开仓数量和交易限额规则。迈 期美联储宽松前景以及地缘风险支撑贵金属强势，各品种陆续刷新新高形成共振突破行情，短期市 场波动率放大,注意仓位控制。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜夜盘高开,短线拉涨到9.8万。强调国内现货背离信号转强,沪粤贴水分别扩至330、185 元，SMM社库增加2.52万吨至19.36万吨。短线国内现货供求给予铜价更大调整压力。但同时需求淡 季下,原料紧张可能向国内精铜传导,且价差利 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面延续窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3127 元/吨，较上一交易收盘 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格下跌 9 元/吨，跌幅为 0.29%，持仓减少 1.56 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格持平于 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 8.25 万吨。据我 | | | | 的钢铁网数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升 2.71 万吨至 184.39 万吨，同比减少 31.91 万吨；社库环比回 | | | | 落 18.81 万吨至 294.19 万吨，同比增加 15.98 万吨；厂库环比回升 0.52 万吨至 140.06 万吨，同比增加 18.53 | | | | 万吨；螺纹表需环比回落 5.96 万吨至 202.68 万吨，同比减少 16.9 万吨。螺纹产量继续回升，库存降幅有 | | | | 所收窄，表需回落，供需数据偏中性 ...

| HE BE ROVER FR | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | 2025/12/26 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | 执业证号 | 黑色金属研究中心 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | 黄志鸿 | Z0015761 | F3051824 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | Z0020036 | F03094002 | 薛夏泽 | Z0022680 | F03117750 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | - 1000 | 7000 | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2609 | JM2609 | (元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][6] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide-range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][12] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate at low levels [2][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.13%. The open interest was 567,104 lots, up 13,387 lots. Spot prices were stable. The basis and spreads showed some minor changes [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The HC2605 contract closed at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. Spot prices had some minor changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 25, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil [9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed various changes. Spot prices and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from different regions, and news about furnace start-ups and shutdowns in some factories [13][14][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of JM2605 and J2605 contracts decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [17] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs were mostly stable, with some minor changes [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [23] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Geopolitical conflicts such as US tanker seizures, Russian port attacks, and potential supply cuts in Kazakhstan have raised concerns about supply disruptions, but the fundamental supply is still loose, and geopolitical factors may trigger short - term rebounds [2] Precious Metals - The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, but short - term volatility may increase after the Christmas holiday [3] Copper - Domestic spot supply - demand gives more downward pressure on copper prices, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper, and it is recommended to hold long positions with an adjusted support level and set a stop - profit [4] Aluminum - The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. With the approach of the Christmas holiday, funds are leaving. It is recommended that long positions be held against the 40 - day moving average [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of ADC12 has been raised. When the spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum expands to over 1,000 yuan, pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the spread [6] Alumina - Alumina has an oversupply situation, and costs may decline. It will be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [7] Zinc - External inventory increases have put short - term pressure on zinc prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8] Lead - Lead is in a low - level consolidation pattern. Pay attention to the resistance at 17,500 yuan/ton [9] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is currently dominated by policy sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [10] Tin - In the first quarter of 2026, tin supply is expected to turn to recovery, while consumption in traditional fields is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position reduction and use put options [11] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate has broken through 120,000 yuan. The overall fundamentals are strong, and the short side is under pressure [12] Industrial Silicon - The market is mainly driven by the expectation of production cuts at the end of the month, and it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [13] Polysilicon - The industry has strong expectations but weak reality. After rule adjustments, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate and decline [14] Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The demand for rebar has recovered slightly, while the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both declined. The overall market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [15] Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [16] Coke - The third round of price cuts has been fully implemented. The price is expected to fluctuate [17] Coking Coal - Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production. The price is expected to fluctuate after repairing the discount [18] Manganese Silicon - The spot price of manganese ore has increased. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [19] Silicon Iron - The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [20] Group 3: Shipping Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". The near - month contract is expected to continue to fluctuate around the spot price [21] Group 4: Fuel and Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for fuel oil has not been significantly boosted. High - sulfur fuel oil is in a game between geopolitical support and supply surplus, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak [22] Asphalt - The supply - demand of asphalt is marginally loose. Geopolitical factors may bring short - term rebounds, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured situation [23] Urea - The supply - demand of urea has improved marginally, and the market is running strongly [24] Methanol - The port inventory has increased significantly. The short - term market may fluctuate weakly in the range, while there is an upward drive in the long - term [25] Pure Benzene - The port inventory of pure benzene has increased. Consider long - position in the month - spread in the medium - term [26] Styrene - The cost support of styrene is insufficient, and the supply pressure is difficult to reverse [27] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The prices of polypropylene and plastic have declined, and the market is under pressure [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may run at a low level, and the upward range of caustic soda is expected to be limited [29] PX and PTA - The PX market has a strong expectation, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position idea in the medium - term [30] Ethylene Glycol - The short - term pressure of ethylene glycol has eased, but it is still under long - term pressure [31] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - The long - term supply - demand of short - fiber is relatively good, while bottle chips are mainly driven by cost [32] Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The industry inventory has increased, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [33] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The demand has weakened, and it is recommended to take a bullish strategy [34] Soda Ash - Soda ash is facing long - term supply - demand surplus pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider a spread strategy [35] Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American harvest expectations. Soybean meal prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of US soybeans [36] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil have continued to rebound. Pay attention to the macro - atmosphere [37] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The mid - term strategy for rapeseed is to short on rebounds, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [38] Soybean No.1 - The price of domestic soybeans is oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the auction results [39] Corn - The price of corn is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [40] Live Pigs - The short - term price of live pigs has rebounded slightly, but the main contract is expected to be weak in the medium - term [41] Eggs - The egg market has turned optimistic in the long - term, but beware of rapid price increases [42] Cotton - The domestic cotton market is oscillating strongly. It is recommended for the industry to consider hedging and buy at low prices [43] Sugar - The international sugar market has sufficient supply, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season production [44] Apples - The apple market is bearish, and it is recommended to maintain a short - position idea [45] Wood - The wood price is at a low level. The low inventory provides some support, and it is recommended to wait and see [46] Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [47] Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - The A - share market has risen, and the stock index futures are affected by the trends of the US dollar and precious metals. Track geopolitical and domestic policy developments [48] Treasury Bonds - In the context of increasing counter - cyclical adjustment policies, the long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve may continue to steepen [49]

金融期货早评 宏观：美国就业市场回温 【市场资讯】1）中国央行四季度例会：继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周 期调节力度。2）北京楼市新政：放宽非京籍家庭购房条件、支持多子女家庭住房需求。3） 贝森特暗示美联储未来方向：通胀"区间制"，取消"点阵图"，支持财政部，回归"幕后"。4） 圣诞前夕美国就业市场回温，上周首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落。 【核心逻辑】海外方面，美国 GDP 数据数据公布，三季度 GDP 超预期增长 4.3%，创两年 最快增速，整体表现相对强劲，在一定程度上打击了降息预期。美国就业市场回温，上周 首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落，数据显示劳动力市场仍具韧性。国内方面，政治局会议 与中央经济工作会议延续"稳中求进"总基调，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的 货币政策；明年重点工作以扩大内需为首要任务，核心在于推进城乡居民增收与释放服务 消费潜力，同时依托创新推动新旧动能转换。而 11 月经济数据显示工业生产韧性尚存，社 会消费品零售同比增速降至 1.3%，内需表现偏弱，仍需政策托底。 人民币汇率：涨声一片 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 ...

来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属集体飘红，沪镍以高达4.68%的涨幅领涨，盘中最高冲至130880元/吨，刷 新2025年4月以来的新高；沪铜涨2.33%，盘中最高冲至96750元/吨，续刷其上市以来的历史新高。沪铅 涨1.53%，其余金属涨幅均在1%以内。氧化铝主连涨1.35%，铸造铝主连涨1.23%。 此外，碳酸锂主连涨5.89%，其盘中最高冲至127880元/吨，刷新2023年11月以来的新高。工业硅涨 1.43%，多晶硅跌1.3%。欧线集运跌1.63%报1795.8。 黑色系方面集体上涨，不锈钢涨1.4%，铁矿涨0.26%，双焦方面，焦煤涨0.62%，焦炭涨0.2%。其余金 属涨幅波动均不大。 外盘方面，截至15:04分，外盘基本金属集体上涨，伦锡涨1.23%，伦铜涨1.3%，伦铜盘中最高冲至 12282美元/吨，续刷其上市历来的历史新高。伦锌涨1.05%，其余金属涨幅均在1%以内。 贵金属方面，截至15:04分，COMEX黄金涨0.37%，盘中续刷其历史高位4555.4美元/盎司，COMEX白 银涨1.83%，其盘中最高冲至72.75美元/盎司，续刷其上市以来的历史新高。国内 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3128 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 趋弱 | | | 上涨 2 元/吨，涨幅为 0.06%，持仓减少 1.19 万手。现货价格稳中有涨，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格持平于 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 8.89 万吨。 | | | | 据海关数据，1-11 月我国棒线材出口 1725.92 万吨，同比增长 44.05%；钢坯出口 1338.01 万吨，同比增长 | | | | 140.64%。棒线材及钢坯出口大幅增长，在很大程度上缓解了国内螺纹钢供应压力。目前螺纹现实供需偏 | | | | 强，多地缺规格，不过市场对于 1 月份供需普遍有将逐步趋弱的预期，市场情绪仍偏谨慎。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2605 价格有所下跌，收于 778.5 元/吨，较前一个交易日 ...

周二期价略偏强运行,现货小涨,但涨价后成交转弱。往后看,从钢厂检修计划来推导,铁水产量尚未见底,但后续可能复 | 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤( (家古,A10%,V27%,0. 2000 800 4000 600 3000 400 2000 1000 产的动力也不差;更重要的是,时间再往后,还有冬储补库的增量需求,给低位价格提供支撑。煤焦的盘面异动是否会带动 现货企稳甚至出现补库的行为,是决定当下行情能否再延续的重要驱动力。从估值的角度,可适当短多,设置止损;止盈 -200 标位观察前一处高点位置。 【硅铁锰硅】能源端犹动较多,同上走强 近期有关能耗双控,清洁能源和反内卷等政策消息较多,双硅价格受情绪助推向上。由于电力和煤炭是双硅的主要成本,短 期情绪发酵下,双硅价格仍将偏强为主。基本面上,钢材价格承压格局不变,钢厂利润不佳,铁水向下调整,直接需求走 焦炭基差(右轴) 弱。随着终端需求淡季来临,负反馈压力大。整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏高。合金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足, 中期供给过剩压力仍不减。由于供需过剩,合金厂库存累积较快,仓单数量趋于累积。对比双硅,近期猛硅供需弱于硅铁 = 青岛港: ...