大宗商品研究所 能化研发报告 玻璃纯碱调研报告 2025 年 8 月 26 日 青海纯碱调研报告 第一部分 核心观点 1. 青海作为盐、煤、石灰石产地，原材料供应稳定性强、价格波动小。当地多数纯 碱企业自有盐湖及石灰石矿，仅部分未覆盖原材料需外采。据调研，当前核心原材料到厂价 约为：盐 81-96 元/吨，石灰石 56-64 元/吨；煤炭通过新疆或本地长期协议采购，到厂价 415 元/吨。青海纯碱企业生产成本相对稳定，生产成本推测在 800 元/吨上下（具体成本因企业 资源禀赋、生产规模各有差异）。企业在原材料采购与成本控制上自主权较高，其成本波动 风险主要集中于运输费用变化。 2. 青海纯碱企业虽具备显著成本优势，但需承担运输价格波动风险。预计四季度受 季节性因素影响，火运、汽运价格通常上涨，将直接抬升青海纯碱运至主销区的综合成本， 需重点关注青海纯碱价格走势。尤其 10 月之后，冬季西藏铁路完成年度运输指标后，运费 优惠政策将逐步收窄。从当前运价来看，青海至河北地区火运 260 元/吨、汽运 280-300 元 /吨（含税），发往西南地区汽运价格则在 300 元/吨左右；此外，汽运价格存在明显季节性 特征 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Huachang Chemical (SZ 002274) held its second board meeting on August 26, 2025, to discuss the proposal for the second extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2025 [1] - For the year 2024, Huachang Chemical's revenue composition is as follows: fine chemicals account for 41.25%, fertilizers account for 32.22%, soda ash accounts for 17.51%, and other industries account for 9.01% [1] - As of the report, Huachang Chemical has a market capitalization of 6.6 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The pet industry is experiencing a significant boom, with a market size of 300 billion yuan, leading to a surge in stock prices for related companies [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the growth in China's soda ash (sodium carbonate) production, with a reported output of 3.48 million tons in June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [1] - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative production of soda ash in China reached 20.064 million tons, marking a cumulative growth of 5.7% [1] Group 2 - The companies mentioned in relation to the soda ash industry include Yuanxing Energy, Sanyou Chemical, Shandong Haihua, Shuanghuan Technology, Chlor-alkali Chemical, Jinjing Technology, Hubei Yihua, Yuntu Holdings, and Hebang Bio [1] - The report referenced is the "2025-2031 China Soda Ash Industry Market Special Research and Competitive Strategy Analysis Report" published by Zhiyan Consulting [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit margins due to changes in supply and demand dynamics in the industry, while continuing to focus on product differentiation and cost reduction strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.394 billion yuan, with a decrease in sales prices for glass and soda ash leading to a reduction in gross profit margin [1]. - The company has repurchased 20.35 million shares, accounting for 1.42% of the total share capital, with a total repurchase amount of 98.26 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively advancing the construction of the Linyi mining project, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, providing upstream raw materials for its float glass production line [1]. - The company is focusing on green energy and green building sectors, optimizing product structure, and enhancing production capacity to capture market opportunities [1][2]. Group 3: Research and Development - The company is increasing the proportion of high value-added products and has made breakthroughs in TCO conductive film glass technology, with the first batch of production achieved at the Tengzhou second line [2]. Group 4: Market Positioning - As a leading enterprise in the glass and soda ash industries, the company is enhancing its core competitiveness by transitioning from traditional industries to green sectors and building an efficient industrial chain [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6]. For individual products, most are rated as "oscillating", including iron ore, coke,焦煤, glass,纯碱, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [8][9][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After about a week of decline, the black building materials entered the lower end of the valuation range. With supply constraints on furnace materials and expectations of stricter safety supervision, prices rebounded significantly. As the off - peak and peak seasons are approaching, the apparent demand for steel remains weak, but it's not yet the time to verify terminal demand. With low inventory pressure in each link of the black industry chain and in the pre - peak season restocking window, prices are expected to have a small rebound space. Attention should be paid to future demand performance and furnace material supply recovery [2]. - Overall, after consecutive days of decline, black prices have fallen near the cost support level, and demand negatives have been gradually digested. With supply disturbances in furnace materials and downstream restocking demand, there is a driving force for price rebound. However, the weak expectation of peak - season terminal demand remains, suppressing the upside space. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Core Logic: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, close to last year's level, with relatively stable total supply. On the demand side, pig iron production increased slightly, and the end - of - month production restrictions have limited impact, so iron ore demand is expected to remain high. In terms of inventory, the iron ore ports destocked this week, with a slight decrease in total inventory. There are limited bearish drivers in the fundamentals, and the price is expected to oscillate [3]. - Outlook: With high iron ore demand, stable supply and inventory, and limited bearish fundamental drivers, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [9]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Core Logic: Some coal mines in the production area have resumed production, but some are still restricted by accidents and other factors. For example, a 3 - million - ton low - sulfur lean primary coking coal mine in Xiangning, Linfen, Shanxi has been shut down for three days. On the import side, the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 vehicles, but there was a short - term decline in the past two days due to the Mongolian customs system. On the demand side, the eighth round of coke price increase has started again, showing regional differentiation. In some areas, coking production is restricted, and the short - term rigid demand for coking coal has slightly declined. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and spot transactions have weakened. Some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory, but overall, there is no obvious inventory pressure. The short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the short - term disk still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [3]. - Outlook: With continuous supply disturbances and difficult significant supply increase before the parade, short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the short - term disk still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [13]. 3.3 Alloys 3.3.1 Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: Yesterday, the coking coal futures price rose significantly, and the black sector was strong, with manganese silicon oscillating strongly. Manganese silicon manufacturers stocked up on raw materials before the parade, and the restocking is nearly over. With increased arrivals and rising supply pressure, the port ore price has weakened from its high level. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profits, and finished product output remains high. Under the environment of industry profit repair, the resumption of production by manufacturers continues, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. In the medium - to - long - term, there may be downward pressure on the manganese silicon price [3]. - Outlook: Currently, the market inventory pressure is controllable, and the cost provides support, so the short - term downward space for the manganese silicon price is limited. But in the medium - to - long - term, as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the reduction in raw material costs [17]. 3.3.2 Silicon Iron - Core Logic: The current market inventory pressure of silicon iron is not large. In the short - term, the silicon iron price is expected to oscillate. However, in the future, the supply - demand gap will gradually be filled, and there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals. The upside space of the price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3]. - Outlook: Currently, the market inventory pressure is not large, and the cost provides support, so the short - term downward adjustment space for the silicon iron price is limited. But the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is expected to move down. Attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [18][20]. 3.4 Glass - Core Logic: After the glass futures price fell, the sentiment in the spot market declined, with mid - stream shipments and a significant decline in upstream production and sales. On the supply side, there is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream has slightly accumulated inventory, with no prominent self - contradictions but more market sentiment disturbances. Recently, the rising coal price has strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals are still weak [3]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the raw material price is strong. After the transaction of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still gives a premium. In the medium - to - long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [15]. 3.5 Steel - Core Logic: There are still contraction disturbances in the supply of coking coal and iron ore. Under the background of high pig iron production, the cost has an upward driving force, and the disk has strong support. The overall spot steel transactions are average, mainly at low prices, and the market sentiment is still cautious. Last week, the production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased. As the off - peak season ends, mid - and downstream enterprises are restocking before the parade. The apparent demand for rebar has improved month - on - month, and inventory accumulation has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains highly resilient, and inventory continues to accumulate under high production. The supply - demand fluctuations of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products are limited, with both supply and demand of the five major steel products increasing, and the inventory accumulation speed slowing down [8]. - Outlook: As the off - peak season ends, steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the market is still cautious about the peak - season demand. Both supply and demand will be affected before and after the parade. The blast furnace production restriction situation needs to be tracked, and there may be shutdowns of construction sites and factories in Beijing and surrounding areas. The pre - parade restocking of raw materials may end. Recently, there are continuous disturbances in the cost supply side. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely. Future focus should be on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand performance [8]. 3.6 Coke - Core Logic: In the futures market, the eighth round of coke price increase has started again, combined with continuous rumors of production restrictions and strengthened cost support from coking coal, coke prices were strong yesterday. In the spot market, the quasi - first - grade coke price at Rizhao Port is 1480 yuan/ton (+10). On the supply side, the seventh round of price increases has been fully implemented, and coking enterprise profits have quickly recovered. As the parade approaches, coking production in some areas is gradually restricted, while others maintain normal production. On the demand side, downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing. Affected by the parade, transportation in some areas is restricted, so local steel mill inventories are still low, and some coking enterprises have started to accumulate inventory. Currently, the inventory of upstream coking enterprises is still at a low level, and under simultaneous production restrictions on coking and steel, the short - term supply - demand remains tight [12]. - Outlook: As the parade approaches, the expectation of coke production restrictions may be stronger than that of steel mills. The short - term tight supply situation will continue. With the start of the eighth round of price increases and strengthened cost support from coking coal, the short - term disk has strong support [12]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The average tax - excluded price of crushed scrap in East China is 2174 (+5) yuan/ton, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference in East China is 1032 (+24) yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the arrival volume of scrap steel decreased month - on - month this week. In terms of demand, the profit of electric arc furnaces is low due to the pressure on finished products recently. The profit and loss of electric arc furnaces during off - peak electricity hours in East China is at a tight balance, and there are losses in many other areas during off - peak hours. The daily consumption of scrap steel in electric arc furnaces has decreased month - on - month. In the blast furnace sector, pig iron production has slightly increased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also slightly increased. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory has slightly increased, and the available inventory days have dropped to a relatively low level [10]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. The pressure on finished product prices has led to low electric arc furnace profits, but resources are still tight. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [10]. 3.8 Sodium Carbonate - Core Logic: The delivered price of heavy - quality sodium carbonate in Shahe is 1230 - 1280 yuan/ton (-). The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, and as the delivery approaches, the fundamental logic returns, with a neutral macro - environment. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term suppression. The production is at a high level, and supply pressure remains. There is no short - term disturbance to production, and production is expected to continue to increase. On the demand side, heavy - quality sodium carbonate is expected to maintain rigid - demand procurement. There are still ignition production lines that have not produced glass, the float glass daily melting volume is expected to be stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out initially, currently at 86,500 tons. The demand for heavy - quality sodium carbonate is flat. In the light - quality sodium carbonate sector, downstream procurement is flat, but the overall downstream restocking sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. Sentiment affects the disk. As the shipping problem eases, mid - stream inventory accumulates, and downstream acceptance is weak [16]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. After the disk price drops, there is a small increase in spot - futures transactions. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. The short - term outlook is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historical high; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,337 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 117 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot; bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][36]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak in the short term [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - Bullish factors: The peak summer overhaul season is coming, and production will decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry production at a historical high; downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash; the positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,326 yuan/ton | 1,220 yuan/ton | - 106 yuan | | Current Value | 1,337 yuan/ton | 1,220 yuan/ton | - 117 yuan | | Change Rate | 0.83% | 0.00% | 10.38% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and the profit by the East China co - production process is - 58 yuan/ton, with the soda ash production profit rising from a historical low [15]. - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 88.48%, and the seasonal decline in the operating rate is delayed. The weekly production of soda ash is 771,400 tons, including 425,200 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - Industry capacity changes: In 2023, the new soda ash production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Soda ash production and sales rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 97.80% [24]. - Downstream demand: The national float glass daily melting volume is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34%. The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry cuts production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [27][33]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [36]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity | Production | Operating Rate | Imports | Exports | Net Imports | Apparent Supply | Total Demand | Supply - Demand Gap | Capacity Growth Rate | Production Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 30.35 million tons | 27.15 million tons | 89.46% | 140,000 tons | 1.52 million tons | - 1.38 million tons | 25.77 million tons | 25.17 million tons | 600,000 tons | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 30.87 million tons | 25.83 million tons | 83.57% | 290,000 tons | 1.38 million tons | - 1.09 million tons | 24.74 million tons | 25.23 million tons | - 490,000 tons | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 32.47 million tons | 28.04 million tons | 86.36% | 190,000 tons | 1.44 million tons | - 1.25 million tons | 26.79 million tons | 26.31 million tons | 480,000 tons | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 33.17 million tons | 27.57 million tons | 73.40% | 360,000 tons | 1.38 million tons | - 1.02 million tons | 26.55 million tons | 26.07 million tons | 480,000 tons | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 32.88 million tons | 28.92 million tons | 71.90% | 230,000 tons | 730,000 tons | - 500,000 tons | 28.42 million tons | 27.64 million tons | 780,000 tons | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 31.14 million tons | 29.44 million tons | 85.26% | 110,000 tons | 2.06 million tons | - 1.95 million tons | 27.49 million tons | 29.13 million tons | - 1.64 million tons | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 33.42 million tons | 32.28 million tons | 87.76% | 820,000 tons | 1.44 million tons | - 620,000 tons | 31.66 million tons | 31.55 million tons | 110,000 tons | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 39.30 million tons | 36.50 million tons | 78.20% | 420,000 tons | 1.56 million tons | - 1.14 million tons | 35.36 million tons | 33.79 million tons | 1.57 million tons | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, asphalt [1][4] - **Cautiously Bullish**: LPG (take profit on long positions), L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea [1][2] - **Bullish**: Glass, soda ash [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks lead to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the pressure of oversupply is increasing, and the oil price trend remains downward. Suggest buying put options and shorting with a light position [1]. - **LPG**: Valuation is restored, downstream开工 rate drops. Be vigilant about the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions [1]. - **L**: Cost support improves, futures and spot prices rise together, and the basis weakens. The peak season starts slowly, and social inventory turns from falling to rising. Suggest buying on dips [1]. - **PP**: The oil price stabilizes and rebounds, and the chemical sector continues the optimistic sentiment. The supply is still under pressure in the future, but the absolute price is low with support at the bottom. Suggest short - term buying on dips [1]. - **PVC**: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke rise, and the cost support improves. Although the inventory is accumulating, the further decline space of the disk is limited. Suggest short - term long positions [1]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose, but the macro - policy bullish expectation is fulfilled. Short - term PX fluctuates strongly. Suggest holding long positions and selling put options [1]. - **PTA**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while the demand shows signs of recovery. There are opportunities to go long at low levels. Suggest holding long positions and selling put options [2]. - **MEG**: Domestic and overseas supply changes are small, demand is expected to improve, inventory is low, and cost support exists. Suggest holding long positions and buying on dips [2]. - **Methanol**: The supply - side pressure increases, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. Do not chase the rise, and focus on buying 01 contracts on dips and selling put options on 01 contracts [2]. - **Urea**: The fundamentals are weak, but there is cost support and export expectations. 01 long positions can be held cautiously, and call options can be sold [2]. - **Asphalt**: The oil price has room to compress, and the asphalt is under pressure above. Suggest shorting with a light position [4]. - **Glass**: The supply is under pressure, demand support is insufficient, and the inventory increases. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains high, demand is mostly rigid, and the inventory accumulates. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices stabilized and rebounded. WTI rose 1.79%, Brent rose 1.49%, and SC rose 0.51% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors boost oil prices in the short term, but in the medium - and long - term, the support from the peak season weakens, and the pressure from OPEC+ production increase rises. The oil price may be pressed to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Libya plans to increase production, India's oil imports decline, and US commercial crude inventories decrease [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break - even point of shale oil new drilling around $60. Buy put options and short with a light position. Pay attention to the range of SC [480 - 500] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 25, the PG main contract closed at 4420 yuan/ton, up 0.64% month - on - month [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price rebounds, the valuation is restored, and the main contract basis is at a normal level. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the trend mainly follows the oil price [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be vigilant about the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4400 - 4500] [12]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7423 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan day - on - day [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, the peak season starts slowly, and social inventory turns from falling to rising. The demand side is strengthening, and there is an expectation of fundamental improvement [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the range of L [7300 - 7500] [16] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7074 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan day - on - day [20]. - **Basic Logic**: The oil price rebounds, the chemical sector is optimistic, but the supply is under pressure. The demand in the peak season starts, and the inventory at high levels drops. The supply - demand is loose in the medium - term, but the bottom is supported [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term buying on dips. Pay attention to the range of PP [7000 - 7200] [21] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5019 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan day - on - day [25]. - **Basic Logic**: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke rise, the cost support improves. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulates. The further decline space of the disk is limited [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long positions. Pay attention to the range of V [4950 - 5100] [26] PX - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7014 (+125) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6966 (+8) yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing production, the demand - side PTA device maintenance increases, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose. The PXN is not low, and short - term PX fluctuates strongly [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips, and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of PX511 [6950 - 7050] [31] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PTA spot price in East China was 4865 (+35) yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4868 (+8) yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side device maintenance increases, the demand shows signs of recovery, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the demand is expected to improve [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, sell put options, and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA01 [4840 - 4920] [35] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 22, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 (-6) yuan/ton, and the EG01 contract closed at 4474 (+1) yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly increase production, overseas devices change little, and the arrival and import are at low levels. The demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is low. The cost support exists [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. Pay attention to the range of EG01 [4500 - 4550] [39] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the methanol spot price in East China was 2320 (-12) yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2405 (-20) yuan/ton [40]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. The cost is supported by coal [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase the rise, focus on buying 01 contracts on dips, and sell put options on 01 contracts. Pay attention to the range of MA01 [2390 - 2440] [42] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1740 (-20) yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1739 (-25) yuan/ton [44]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The cost support exists, and the price fluctuates in a range [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously hold 01 long positions, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of UR01 [1735 - 1765] [46] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is under pressure, the supply increases, and the demand decreases. The valuation is high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position [4] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The supply is under pressure, the demand support is insufficient, and the inventory increases [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see [4] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The supply remains high, the demand is mostly rigid, and the inventory accumulates [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - The current market lacks a clear directional guide, with a mix of long and short factors. Prices are mainly fluctuating within a range, with the 01 contract's reference range being 15,000 - 16,500. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation during the peak production season in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high levels [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is trending weakly following its own fundamental logic. The overall demand has no growth expectation, and the inventory may face further pressure. It is recommended to try shorting at high levels. - Glass has a weak demand in the deep - processing sector, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. The short - selling logic on the disk is not over, and previous high - level short positions can be held [3]. Logs - The log futures are expected to fluctuate between 800 - 850. It is recommended to mainly go long at low levels with reference to the 01 contract [4]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon fluctuates widely. The cost center is expected to rise, and there are expectations of capacity clearance. It is recommended to try going long at low levels, with the main price fluctuation range being 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is still facing inventory accumulation pressure. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at high levels, with the price range's lower limit rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit being 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try going long at low levels and consider buying put options to short at high levels when volatility is low [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 150 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.01%. The whole - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 55 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.98%. - The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged, and the non - standard price difference increased by 8.48% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 45 yuan/ton, a rise of 4.50%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.26%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.65% [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's production increased by 44.23%, Indonesia's decreased by 12.03%, India's increased by 30.82%, and China's increased by 6.80%. - The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. In July, domestic tire production decreased by 8.16%, while tire exports increased by 10.51%. - In June, the total import volume of natural rubber increased by 2.21%. In July, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 5.00% [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.89%, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 10.02%. The inflow and outflow rates of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 1.36%, and the glass 2509 contract increased by 1.42%. The 05 basis decreased by 151.8% [3]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 1.25%, and the soda ash 2509 contract increased by 1.32%. The 05 basis decreased by 141.67% [3]. Supply - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 1.33%, and the weekly output increased by 1.33%. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [3]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 0.28%, the soda ash factory inventory increased by 0.89%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 6.37%. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [3]. Real Estate Data (YoY) - The new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [3]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices generally declined. The prices of various specifications of spot logs in ports remained mostly unchanged, and the outer - disk quotes remained unchanged [4]. Supply - The port shipping volume decreased by 1.51%, and the number of congested ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32% [4]. Inventory - As of August 15, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.06 million cubic meters, showing a continuous decline. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 3.74%, and that in Jiangsu increased by 5.95% [4]. Demand - As of August 15, the average daily log delivery volume was 63,300 cubic meters, remaining basically flat [4]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China's oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged. The basis of different specifications changed, with some decreasing significantly [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 20.00%, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 1.45%, etc. [5]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon production increased by 3.23%, and the operating rate increased by 2.47%. The production and operating rates of different regions changed. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 4.54%, while that of polysilicon increased by 5.10% [5]. Inventory Changes - The inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factories increased slightly, while the social inventory decreased by 0.37%, and the order inventory decreased by 0.23% [5]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon raw materials remained unchanged, while the prices of N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components increased slightly. The N - type material basis increased by 4.94% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract decreased by 0.24%. The monthly spreads between different contracts changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - The weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.57%, and the polysilicon production decreased by 0.68%. The monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10%, and the import volume increased by 47.48% [6]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 2.89%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 12.07% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document about the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The macro - environment is generally favorable for commodities. Overseas, Powell's dovish signal strengthens the market's interest - rate cut expectation, and the July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI exceeds expectations. Domestically, although the July domestic demand data is still weak, the market's pessimistic expectation of deflation has changed. However, the fundamentals of both raw materials and finished products are weakening, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. Overall, the steel market is expected to show a range - bound pattern [3]. - The supply of iron ore first increases and then stabilizes. The high demand for hot metal is maintained, but the downstream terminal demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the premium retracement supports the iron ore price. In the short term, the iron ore price is expected to be mainly range - bound [18]. - The details of the "anti - involution" policy need time to be introduced, and the macro - sentiment may fluctuate. The far - month production of coking coal may be restricted by over - production inspections and the 276 - working - day policy. The current main contract has a large open interest, and the long - short game is intense. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished product demand in the peak season, the production changes of coking coal mines, and the implementation effect of macro - policies [30]. - Driven by profit, the production of ferroalloys is gradually increasing, reaching a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. With the production restrictions on some steel mills before the parade and no obvious improvement in demand, the ferroalloy inventory may change from destocking to stocking. The price of ferroalloys is affected by the price of coking coal, and in the long - term, the valuation trend of coking coal is upward, but the short - term fluctuation is intense [48]. - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The demand for soda ash is expected to be weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach a new high. The cost of raw salt and coal has increased. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand for soda ash remains unchanged [57]. - The near - end trading of glass returns to the industry. After Hubei reduces the price, the production and sales situation improves. The policy expectation fluctuates, and the market sentiment also fluctuates. The supply of glass is stable, and the cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 7%. The mid - stream inventory is at a high level, and the spot negative feedback continues. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [83]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Overseas macro - drivers are upward, and domestic deflation pessimism has changed. However, steel has a high - supply pressure with super - seasonal inventory accumulation. Raw material fundamentals are weakening, but the overall inventory of finished products is not high, and the total demand is acceptable. The market is expected to be range - bound [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3224, 3261, and 3138 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3377, 3388, and 3389 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on August 25, 2025, was 3354 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 86 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 53 yuan/ton [8]. Iron Ore - **Supply - Demand and Price Outlook**: Supply first increases and then stabilizes, demand for hot metal is high but terminal demand is weak with inventory accumulation. Coking coal supply supports the price. In the short term, the price is expected to be range - bound [18]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 787, 763, and 806.5 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 780 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average hot - metal output was 240.75 tons, the 45 - port port clearance volume was 325.74 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The "anti - involution" policy details are pending, and the macro - sentiment may fluctuate. The far - month production of coking coal may be restricted. The main contract has a large open interest, and the long - short game is intense. Attention should be paid to multiple factors [30]. - **Price and Basis Data**: On August 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost in Tangshan (Meng 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 88 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse - receipt cost in Rizhao Port (wet - quenched) was 1616 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 120.4 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot Price and Profit**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1470 yuan/ton, and the immediate coking profit was 397 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: Driven by profit, production is increasing, with high supply pressure. With production restrictions on steel mills and no obvious demand improvement, inventory may change from destocking to stocking. The price is affected by coking coal [48]. - **Data of Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: On August 25, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, and the ferromanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 268 yuan/ton [49][51]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to remain high, demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory is at a new high. The cost of raw salt and coal has increased, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [57]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1393 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread was 167 yuan/ton [58]. - **Spot Price**: The heavy - soda market price in North China was 1350 yuan/ton, and the heavy - soda to light - soda price difference was 100 yuan/ton [62]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: The near - end trading returns to the industry. After Hubei reduces the price, production and sales improve. Policy expectations and market sentiment fluctuate. Supply is stable, and the cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 7%. The mid - stream inventory is high, and the spot negative feedback continues [83]. - **Price and Month - Spread Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1280 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread was 281 yuan/ton [84]. - **Production and Sales Data**: On August 24, 2025, the production and sales rate in Shahe was 110%, and in Hubei was 131% [85].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, but leading Chinese companies have strong cash flow and low debt ratios, which may enhance potential dividend yields as capacity expansion slows down [1][3][5] - Global GDP growth supports chemical demand, and changes on the supply side combined with demand growth are expected to lead to a recovery in industry prosperity [1][4] Key Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to control new capacity in sectors like coal chemical, refining, and polyurethane, which may still yield considerable dividend rates even at the cycle's bottom [1][5] - The industrial silicon and soda ash sectors, which are currently in surplus, have greater elasticity due to restrictions on existing and new capacities [1][5] - The oil and gas chemical sector has begun to see positive free cash flow in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in the industry [8] Financial Metrics - In 2024, the net cash flow for the chemical industry is projected to shrink to nearly 20 billion, while total operating cash flow exceeds 250 billion [7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from 350 billion to below 300 billion [7] - By 2025 or 2026, the industry is anticipated to generate positive net free cash flow, marking a historic shift [7] Company-Specific Insights - Hualu Hengsheng's market value in 2024 is approximately 50.6 billion, with cash flow expected to rise from 5 billion in 2025 to 8.3 billion by 2027, suggesting attractive dividend yields even in a downturn [9] - The European chemical production capacity utilization is at a historical low of around 74%, indicating that high-cost production is unlikely to recover, which benefits Chinese companies with cost advantages [10][11] Future Trends - The chemical industry is expected to see a rebound in prosperity due to low inventory levels and attractive valuations [11] - The exit of high-cost European production will allow Chinese leaders to further consolidate and expand their market positions [11] - The polyurethane sector is currently at a cyclical low, but price recovery is anticipated due to supply constraints and demand growth [18][19] Challenges and Opportunities - The olefin industry faces challenges with low prices, but strict approval processes for new capacities may lead to a recovery if production contracts [16] - The refining sector is grappling with overcapacity and outdated facilities, but the anti-involution policy may help improve market conditions for major players [17] - The organic silicon market is at a historical low, but limited new capacity and potential overseas exits may lead to a recovery in the medium to long term [24][25][26] Sector-Specific Recommendations - Focus on companies in controlled capacity sectors like coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy) and refining (e.g., Sinopec) for potential dividend yields [5][17] - Monitor the industrial silicon market for companies like Hesheng Silicon Industry, which may see profit doubling if prices recover [32] - In the soda ash sector, companies like Boyuan Chemical are worth watching as they navigate a challenging market [33] Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery driven by policy changes, strong cash flows from leading companies, and a favorable global economic backdrop. Investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned to benefit from supply-side constraints and market shifts.