Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 11 products experiencing price increases, 38 seeing declines, and one remaining stable in late May 2025 compared to mid-May 2025 [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary plates decreased by 1.4%, 1.7%, and 1.2% respectively, with rebar priced at 3143.7 yuan per ton [4]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, aluminum ingot saw a price increase of 0.9% to 20330.0 yuan per ton, while electrolytic copper decreased by 0.1% to 78398.6 yuan per ton [4]. - Chemical products showed varied results, with sulfuric acid increasing by 0.7% to 621.8 yuan per ton, while methanol decreased by 4.6% to 2191.9 yuan per ton [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell by 2.1% to 4310.4 yuan per ton, while diesel prices increased by 0.7% to 6968.7 yuan per ton [4]. - Coal prices also experienced declines, with anthracite coal dropping by 1.2% to 948.5 yuan per ton and coking coal decreasing by 3.5% to 1167.9 yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, rice prices increased by 0.8% to 4027.6 yuan per ton, while soybean prices rose by 0.7% to 4321.6 yuan per ton [5]. - Fertilizer prices showed a decline, with urea decreasing by 2.5% to 1890.0 yuan per ton [5]. - The price of pesticides, however, increased by 1.1% to 23771.4 yuan per ton, indicating a rise in agricultural production inputs [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Iron ore: -2 (most bearish) [5] - Rebar: 0 (neutral) [9] - Hot-rolled coil: 0 (neutral) [9] - Ferrosilicon: -1 (bearish) [13] - Silicomanganese: -1 (bearish) [13] - Coke: -1 (bearish) [16] - Coking coal: -1 (bearish) [16] - Thermal coal: 0 (neutral) [19] - Logs: -1 (bearish) [24] 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore faces downward price risks due to weak demand expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to oscillate at low levels with negative feedback expectations leading [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon will experience weak oscillations due to poor demand expectations, and silicomanganese will also have weak oscillations as port ore transactions are under pressure [2][11]. - Coke has seen the second round of price cuts implemented and is expected to oscillate weakly, while coking coal is also expected to oscillate weakly [2][14]. - Thermal coal is stabilizing at the bottom stage [2][17]. - Logs are expected to oscillate weakly [2][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures price closed at 702.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan (-0.71%); open interest decreased by 1,831 hands. Spot prices of various iron ores declined, with the largest drop of 5.0 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads also changed slightly [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5% [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan (-0.77%); hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan (-0.55%). Spot prices in most regions decreased, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the weekly data on May 29, rebar production decreased by 5.97 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 13.87 tons; total inventory of rebar decreased by 23.17 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 7.38 tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 1.55 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 13.87 tons. On May 30, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, up 0.18 percentage points week - on - week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week - on - week; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, down 0.87 percentage points week - on - week; the daily average pig iron output was 241.91 tons, down 1.69 tons week - on - week. In April 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons. In mid - May 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily crude steel output decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, pig iron output decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and steel output increased by 1.9% month - on - month [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of silicomanganese increased by 120 yuan/ton, while that of ferrosilicon decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross - variety spreads all changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of May 30, prices of various grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. Manganese ore inventory at major ports decreased by 13.83 million tons week - on - week as of May 30. Some steel mills' procurement prices and volumes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were announced [11][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of coking coal in some regions decreased, and that of coke also decreased. The basis and spreads changed [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: Coking coal quotes at northern ports were provided. On May 30, the long - short positions of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 contracts in the top 20 members of the DCE changed [14][16]. Thermal Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2506 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan from the previous settlement price [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Quotes of foreign trade thermal coal at southern ports and domestic thermal coal at production areas were provided. On May 30, the long - short positions of the ZC2506 contract in the top 20 members of the ZCE did not change [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of most log products remained stable, with only a few showing small fluctuations [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and residential investment decreased by 9.6% year - on - year [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the previous supply - side reform, the problems faced by the non - ferrous sector were much smaller than those of the black sector [2][6] - The 656th Document established the "ceiling" for electrolytic aluminum production capacity, ending the dilemma of continuous growth despite repeated regulations [3][38] - Compared with the black sector, the supply - demand balance of the non - ferrous metal industry is relatively healthy, and strategic resources are being reserved by accumulating intermediate inventories [4][49] - The industry prosperity of the non - ferrous metal demand side varies, and the emerging economy has a higher driving force for non - ferrous metals than traditional industries [5][75] - It is less likely to launch a new round of supply - side reform in the non - ferrous sector due to its relatively healthy supply - demand balance, strategic nature, and complex and dispersed industrial chain [106] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Reform Background and Motivation - The current market's attention to potential supply - side reform is due to over - supply of industrial products, weakening external demand caused by trade frictions, and the call for anti - "involution - style" price cuts. Similar problems led to the 2015 supply - side reform [8] - In the 2015 supply - side reform, industrial product prices (PPI) declined for 54 consecutive months, and over - capacity seriously squeezed industrial enterprises' profit margins. Currently, over - capacity is spreading to the middle and lower reaches [8][12] - External economic downturn led to a decline in China's exports in 2015, and trade protectionism in developed economies and competition from low - cost countries further worsened China's foreign trade environment [18][19] 3.2 Comparison between Non - ferrous and Black Sectors - From 2012 - 2016, the non - ferrous sector was more prosperous than the black sector, with relatively stable capacity utilization in non - ferrous smelting and rolling industries. However, non - ferrous metal prices were under pressure, dragging down enterprise profit growth [20][28] 3.3 Factors Affecting Non - ferrous Metal Demand - In 2017, factors such as enterprise capital expenditure, emerging industries (new energy vehicles, 5G, semiconductors), and real - estate recovery driven by shantytown renovation monetization and overseas economic recovery boosted non - ferrous metal demand [30][37] 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Reform - Before setting the 4500 - million - ton production capacity ceiling in 2017, the electrolytic aluminum industry had experienced six rounds of "failed" regulations. The 656th Document established the ceiling and launched supply - side reform, including measures such as determining the ceiling, setting energy and environmental thresholds, and optimizing production capacity layout [38][40][42] - Compared with the "one - size - fits - all" approach in the black sector, electrolytic aluminum production restrictions are more "seasonal" and "refined", mainly concentrated in the heating season and becoming more precise over time [46] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance of the Non - ferrous Sector - The capacity utilization rate of non - ferrous smelting and rolling has been stable at around 80%. The non - ferrous sector emphasizes the logic of "resource is king", with the intermediate smelting end yielding profits to the upstream mining end. Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different profit performances due to downstream demand [59] - The non - ferrous sector shows a pattern where the upstream is stronger than the middle and downstream, and refined metal inventories are accumulating. This is related to the high import dependence of non - ferrous minerals in China, and China reserves strategic resources by expanding intermediate inventories [60][68][74] 3.6 Demand - side Characteristics of Non - ferrous Metals - The non - ferrous sector has more diverse intermediate products and a more dispersed downstream demand compared to the black sector, which increases the difficulty of supply - side reform [77] - The demand from the power industry for non - ferrous metals accounts for a high and increasing proportion. The demand for copper in the power industry is expected to grow by 6.5 - 9%, and the demand for aluminum in the power industry is expected to grow by about 10% in 2025 [80][85][86] - The real - estate sector's demand for non - ferrous metals is differentiated. While the real - estate market is generally weak, policies have promoted the demand for copper in the power and home appliance industries, leading to a differentiation strategy of "long non - ferrous, short black" [87] - The new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries have become new drivers of non - ferrous metal demand. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year sales of new energy vehicles reached 46.3%, and the global and Chinese new - added photovoltaic installations are expected to drive the demand for non - ferrous metals [105]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Weak consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coke: Oscillating weakly [1] - Manganese silicon: Weakly running [1] - Ferrosilicon: Weakly running [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The terminal demand for steel is gradually weakening, and the market is pessimistic about the supply - demand situation in the upcoming consumption off - season. The short - term steel futures market is expected to be in weak consolidation. The iron ore market has a complex situation of supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and price cuts, and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are affected by factors such as cost, demand, and production, and are expected to run weakly in the short term [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures rebounded slightly, with the 2510 contract closing at 2978 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The spot price rose steadily, and the trading volume increased. The national rebar production decreased, the inventory decline expanded, and the apparent demand rebounded slightly. However, the terminal demand is gradually weakening, and the short - term is expected to be in weak consolidation [1] - **Iron ore**: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures rebounded, closing at 707 yuan/ton. The port spot price rose. The global shipment volume decreased slightly, the blast furnace start - up rate increased, but the molten iron output decreased. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports and steel mills decreased. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Coking coal**: The coking coal futures fell, with the 2509 contract closing at 759 yuan/ton, down 2.57%. The spot price in some areas decreased. The supply is loose, the downstream procurement is postponed, and the trading is light. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures fell, with the 2509 contract closing at 1332 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. The spot price in the port market decreased. The second round of price cuts was implemented, the demand is weakening, and the inventory of some coking enterprises is overstocked. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Manganese silicon**: The manganese silicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5530 yuan/ton, down 1.5%. The market price decreased in some areas. The cost support is weak, the terminal demand is weak, and the production is expected to increase in Inner Mongolia. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5322 yuan/ton, down 2.28%. The production in the main producing areas is decreasing, but it has no obvious support for the price. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: The contract spreads of various varieties have different changes, such as the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 7.0, up 7.0 [4] - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also shows different trends, for example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 142.0, up 6.0 [4] - **Spot prices**: The spot prices of various varieties have different degrees of increase or decrease, like the Shanghai rebar spot price rising 20 yuan/ton to 3120 yuan/ton [4] - **Profits and spreads**: The profits and spreads of various varieties have changed, such as the rebar disk profit being 102.5, up 3.2 [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main contract prices**: There are price trend charts of main contracts for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][9][14][17] - **Main contract basis**: There are basis trend charts of main contracts for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [19][20][23][25] - **Inter - period contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][31][33][35][36][39] - **Inter - variety contract spreads**: There are spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [41][42][43][45] - **Rebar profits**: There are profit trend charts of rebar including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][49][50] 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of resource products [52] - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52] - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to experience weak oscillations as downstream demand has reached a temporary peak [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to trade in a low - level range due to the anticipation of a negative feedback mechanism [2][7][8]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak oscillation as the main production areas resume operations, while silicomanganese is likely to be weak due to the pressure on port ore transactions [2][12]. - Coke is at the bottom - end of the oscillation after the second round of price cuts, and coking coal is also at the bottom - end of the oscillation [2][16]. - Thermal coal is expected to have a weak oscillation as coal mine inventories increase [2][19]. - Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 707.0 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.22%. The previous day's position was 716,254 lots, down 5,254 lots. Spot prices of various iron ore types increased, with the basis and spreads showing different changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 26.2755 trillion yuan, unchanged from the previous year, and the total profit was 1.34914 trillion yuan, down 1.7% year - on - year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton or 0.77%, with a trading volume of 1,333,951 lots and a position of 2,441,388 lots, up 41,409 lots. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,100 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton or 0.55%, with a trading volume of 452,531 lots and a position of 1,537,114 lots, up 23,289 lots. Spot prices generally decreased, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data from Shanghai Steel Union on May 29, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 5.97 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 13.87 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 8.41 tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 23.17 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 7.38 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 32.94 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 1.55 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 13.87 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 9.23 tons. In April 2025, China's steel exports were 10.462 million tons, basically the same as the previous month; from January to April, the cumulative steel exports were 37.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In April, the global crude steel production decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons. In mid - May 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel decreased by 0.3%, pig iron decreased by 0.4%, and steel increased by 1.9% [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Rebar is 0 (neutral), and hot - rolled coil is 0 (neutral) [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon futures, the 2507 contract closed at 5322 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract closed at 5226 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan/ton. For silicomanganese futures, the 2506 contract closed at 5492 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract closed at 5530 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton. Spot prices and various price differences also showed corresponding changes [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 29, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton in some areas. South32 announced the offer prices for South African semi - carbonate lumps and Australian lumps in July 2025, with an increase in the price of South African semi - carbonate lumps compared to the previous month. A steel mill in Henan set the price of silicomanganese at 5550 yuan/ton for a purchase volume of 5000 tons [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Ferrosilicon is - 1 (weak bearish), and silicomanganese is - 1 (weak bearish) [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal futures JM2509, the previous day's closing price was 759 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 2.57%, with a trading volume of 709,680 lots and a position of 540,328 lots, up 13,462 lots. For coke futures J2509, the previous day's closing price was 1332 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.49%, with a trading volume of 28,870 lots and a position of 56,432 lots, down 1050 lots. Spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and the basis and spreads also showed corresponding fluctuations [16]. - **Price and Position Information**: Northern port coking coal quotes are provided, and the CCI metallurgical coal index on May 29 shows price changes. On May 29, from the position of the top 20 members of the DCE, the long position of coking coal JM2509 increased by 12,175 lots, and the short position increased by 8353 lots; the long position of coke J2509 increased by 50 lots, and the short position decreased by 810 lots [16][17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Coke is - 1 (weak bearish), and coking coal is - 1 (weak bearish) [18]. Thermal Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2506 contract of thermal coal had no trading the previous day. The opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's settlement price, with a trading volume of 18 lots and a position of 0 lots [19]. - **Fundamental Information**: Southern port quotes for foreign - traded thermal coal and domestic production area quotes for thermal coal are provided. On May 29, from the position of the top 20 members of the ZCE, the long and short positions of the ZC2506 contract both decreased by 0 lots [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [21]. Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Data on closing prices, trading volumes, positions, basis, and spot prices of different log contracts and varieties are provided, along with daily and weekly price change rates [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April, the national real estate development investment was 2.773 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%, and residential investment decreased by 9.6% [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [26].

日度报告——综合晨报 美国上诉法院批准暂缓执行贸易法院命令 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-30 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国上诉法院批准暂缓执行贸易法院命令 美国上诉法院暂缓了执行贸易法院命令，特朗普关税政策继续 执行，市场风险偏好回落，美元指数走低。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国至 5 月 24 日当周初请失业金人数 24 万人 综 金价先跌后涨最终收涨，主要受到特朗普对等关税被贸易法院 阻止后又被最高法院恢复的事件扰动，市场避险情绪先降后升。 美国政府目前仍在与不同国家进行贸易谈判。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 2660 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 美关税政策被叫停对于债市的影响主要集中在情绪层面。国债 期货估值基本合理，短线存在做多机会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 首批收购存量商品房专项债落地 本周五大品种去库表现尚可，螺纹产量下降带动降库加快。卷 板需求维持韧性，环比有所回升，钢价也有所反弹。但需求走 弱预期仍难证伪，双焦表现弱势，预计钢价反弹空间有限。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 马来西亚计划在 2030 年前将 B30 生物燃料用于运输行业 扫描二维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures products on May 29, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][15][24][38][46] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from May 22 to May 28, 2025, shows a constant value of - 190.4 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads are all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis on May 28, 2025, was - 5.39 yuan/ton. The fuel oil basis and the crude oil/asphalt ratio also have corresponding data from May 22 to May 28 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., are provided from May 22 to May 28, 2025 [11] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of black metal products including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented from May 22 to May 28, 2025 [16] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from May 22 to May 28, 2025, are given [25] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on May 28, 2025, are provided [31] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from May 22 to May 28, 2025, are shown [39] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis and inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures are provided [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, silicon metal, lithium carbonate, coke [1] - **Bullish**: Corn (mid - term), urea [1] - **Sideways**: Index futures, gold, silver, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, nickel, ferronickel, stainless steel (short - term), rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, ferroalloys, ferrosilicon, glass, soda ash, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, soybeans, pulp, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, styrene, PE, BPP, PVC, caustic soda, LPG, container shipping [1] 2. Core Views - The current market is affected by multiple factors such as weak economy, asset shortage, global trade frictions, and policy changes. Different varieties show different trends due to their specific supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and market sentiment [1]. - For most commodities, short - term trends are often influenced by immediate news and short - term supply - demand imbalances, while long - term trends are determined by fundamental supply - demand structures and macro - economic conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Lack of driving factors, likely to continue weak sideways movement [1] - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank suppress upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Short - term sideways, long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - **Silver**: Short - term high - level sideways, limited upward space in the medium term [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disturbances in Congo (Kinshasa) increase concerns about supply shortages [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports prices in the short term, but upward space is limited as prices rise [1] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, and the downward momentum of futures prices is weakening [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term weak sideways after price decline, long - term surplus pressure exists. Pay attention to inventory changes [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short - term weak sideways, long - term supply pressure remains. Pay attention to steel mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Supply recovery expectations are strengthening, and prices have significantly corrected in the short term [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: In the window period from peak to off - peak season, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with no upward driving force [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Potential risk of weakening exports, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with unclear price rebound drivers [1] - **Iron ore**: Expectation of peak iron - making output, but no new stories on the supply side. Pay attention to steel pressure [1] - **Ferroalloys**: Short - term supply - demand balance, high warehouse receipt pressure [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area make supply - demand tight [1] - **Glass**: Supply - demand is weak, and prices may weaken due to the rainy season [1] - **Soda ash**: Short - term demand is okay, but medium - term supply is excessive, and prices are under pressure [1] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply - demand is relatively excessive. Coking coal provides positive arbitrage and selling hedging opportunities when the futures price is at a premium. Coke is bearish [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: Limited upward driving force, expected to maintain range - bound movement [1] - **Soybean oil**: Argentine weather impact is limited, and there is arrival pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Concerns about supply shortage, and it is possible to consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term affected by trade negotiations and weather, long - term affected by macro uncertainties. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the production volume may exceed expectations if crude oil is weak [1] - **Corn**: Medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, but short - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [1] - **Soybeans**: Short - term no obvious bullish drivers, expected to maintain range - bound movement. Long opportunities for M11 and M01 can be considered [1] - **Pulp**: Port inventory is rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to move sideways [1] - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is recovering, and the futures price is at a discount. The futures price is expected to be stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: Affected by the progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, OPEC+ production increase, and summer consumption season [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, inventory accumulation, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Natural rubber**: Futures - spot price difference has returned, affected by exchange policies, and inventory has decreased [1] - **BR rubber**: Short - term sideways, long - term downward pressure due to weak demand [1] - **PTA**: Supply - demand tension has been relieved, and short - fiber cost is closely related [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Continuing to reduce inventory, and the impact of polyester production cuts is ongoing [1] - **Short - fiber**: Cost is closely related to PTA, and the tight situation has been alleviated [1] - **Styrene**: Speculative demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and the spot - futures price gap persists [1] - **Urea**: High daily production, increased short - term export demand expectations, and a possible rebound [1] - **Methanol**: High domestic production, increasing arrivals, and entering the inventory accumulation phase. The market is expected to be weak sideways [1] - **PE**: Seasonal demand is weakening, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **BPP**: Maintenance support is limited, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **PVC**: Fundamentals are weak, but there is short - term rebound due to macro - level positives [1] - **Caustic soda**: Low inventory, sufficient orders, and subsequent trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Prices are weak, with narrow - range fluctuations, and are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Container shipping**: Strong expectations but weak reality. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling during the price - support period. Light - position long positions can be considered for peak - season contracts, and arbitrage opportunities exist [1]

五矿期货早报 | 黑色金属 螺纹钢 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000 4200 4400 10合约基差（右轴） 10合约收盘价 现货螺纹价格 -150 -50 50 150 250 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 10-01合约价差 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 图 5：成交量与持仓量（手） 图 6：全国贸易商成交量（吨） 五矿期货早报 | 黑色金属 | | | 黑色金属早报 | | 2025/5/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 煤焦钢矿报价情况 | | | | | 品种 | 价格 | 涨跌 | 折交割品 | | | 加拿大CFR | 1 65 | 0 | | | | 山西柳林低硫 | 1000 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 山西柳林中硫 | 1030 | 0 | | | | 蒙5精煤(乌不浪口) | 920 | -50 | | | | 主焦煤(唐山) | 1100 | 0 | 941 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for various black metal products are all ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment for black metals is pessimistic, with weak demand expectations and a gloomy market atmosphere. Most product prices are under downward pressure, and the market is influenced by factors such as seasonal demand changes, supply - side capacity, and policy expectations [2][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel - Steel futures showed an inertial decline. In the off - season, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to fall but at a slower pace. The supply pressure remained high, and the negative feedback expectation kept fermenting. The downstream industries had poor performance, and the demand outlook was pessimistic. The short - term downward trend may be followed by increased volatility [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated. The global shipment was in normal fluctuation, and the domestic arrival volume was expected to rise. The terminal demand entered the off - season, and the molten iron production decreased slightly. The iron ore supply - demand relationship faced marginal weakening pressure, and the ore price was expected to show a weak oscillation [3]. Coke - Coke prices continued to decline, with the second - round price cut fully implemented. The molten iron production decreased slightly, and the overall coke inventory increased slightly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the negative feedback needed to be observed. The coke futures were basically at par, and it was not advisable to be overly bearish [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices also continued to fall. The coal mine production was still at a high level, and the spot auction market weakened. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory pressure accumulated rapidly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the negative feedback needed to be observed. The coking coal futures were at a significant discount, and it was not advisable to be overly bearish [6]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices oscillated at a low level. After the leading steel mill's tender, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts, the weekly output increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The manganese ore inventory started to accumulate, and the price was weak due to the overall black metal market [7]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated narrowly. The molten iron production decreased slightly, the export demand was stable, and the secondary demand remained high. The supply decreased, the market transaction was average, and the inventory decreased slightly. The price was weak due to the overall black metal market [8].