What a rollercoaster we’ve been on with Hims & Hers (NYSE: HIMS ); one that has surely paid off with the stock being one of the best performers in my coverage. I last madeI’m a retired Wall Street PM specializing in TMT; since kickstarting my career, I’ve spent over two decades in the market navigating the technology landscape, focusing on risk mitigation through the dot com bubble, credit default of ‘08, and, more recently, with the AI boom. In one word, what I’d like my service to revolve around is moment ...

Weekly Insights - The report highlights an increase in market disturbances due to escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran, leading to heightened concerns over oil prices and inflation risks. However, the direct impact on China is considered limited, with the main concern being the risk of significant oil price increases. Historically, Middle Eastern conflicts have acted as catalysts for oil price fluctuations, but their effects tend to be short-lived due to the global economy's inability to sustain high oil prices for extended periods. Overall, the emotional impact of these conflicts on the market is greater than the actual economic implications [4][7]. - The State Council's meeting on June 13 emphasized stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market, outlining four key policy directions: stabilizing expectations, activating demand, optimizing supply, and mitigating risks. This is expected to lead to timely responses from local governments and facilitate a quicker adjustment in the real estate cycle, contributing to marginal improvements in economic performance [4][7]. Market Trends - Despite recent adjustments, the overall market trend remains a broad range-bound movement. The core factors driving the market are stable and improving fundamental expectations, with hopes for gradual policy and external improvements. The report anticipates a structural bull market to emerge in the third quarter, with 3,400 points identified as a significant resistance level. The transition from quantitative to qualitative changes in A-shares is underway, indicating a revaluation of Chinese assets from a global investment perspective [5][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high economic activity, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks, which are expected to continue their upward trajectory. While there may be short-term adjustments in crowded small-cap stocks, the likelihood of a major cyclical downturn is low. The report remains optimistic about the performance of large-cap companies following the trends of small-cap stocks. Key sectors to watch include innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumer trends, with an emphasis on undervalued, high-dividend stocks as long-term investment opportunities in a declining interest rate environment [6][9]. Market Data - The report notes a general upward trend in the market, with small-cap stocks performing particularly well. The weekly performance of major indices shows positive returns, with the ChiNext Index leading at 2.32%, followed by the Shenzhen Component Index at 1.42% and the Shanghai Composite Index at 1.13% [10][12]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector has outperformed other industries this week, indicating strong investor interest in this area [13]. - Market turnover rates have increased, suggesting a rise in trading activity, while margin financing balances have shown a decline, reflecting reduced market participation [15][17]. Valuation Insights - The overall valuation levels in the market remain reasonable, with the exception of the Sci-Tech 50 Index, which has seen a notable increase. The report provides a detailed breakdown of sector valuations, highlighting significant variations across different industries [19][21]. - For instance, the electronics sector has a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 58.6, while the real estate sector shows a negative P/E of -6.4, indicating substantial differences in market sentiment and performance expectations across sectors [21][22].

Group 1 - The TMT industry has shown signs of recovery since late May, with a potential for a comprehensive rebound in the sector and its sub-sectors [1] - The performance of the dividend theme has weakened in June, with the probability of the CSI Dividend Index outperforming the CSI 300 dropping to 31%, significantly lower than in May [1] - Key dividend sectors such as banking, transportation, utilities, and coal have low probabilities of outperforming, with the transportation sector below 20% in June [1] Group 2 - Historical analysis indicates that the CSI Dividend Index has outperformed the CSI 300 in June due to favorable industry fundamentals and market downturns in previous years [2] - Current market conditions lack new industry logic or significant market fluctuations, suggesting that dividend assets may face headwinds in June [2] - New consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are currently experiencing high market enthusiasm, but there is a risk of overcrowding, leading to a potential need for portfolio adjustments [2] Group 3 - The market sentiment for the TMT sector is currently at a low level, positioned at the 15th percentile over the past year, indicating potential for a catalytic phase [3] - Events such as the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference and Huawei Conference may serve as catalysts for the TMT sector, with the R2 model being a potential trigger point [3] - The performance of sub-sectors related to AI computing in Q2 is expected to support future trends, enhancing the attractiveness of the TMT industry amidst challenges in the dividend and new consumption sectors [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A500 index has shown a decline of 0.92% as of June 13, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The top-performing stocks include China Merchants Energy, which rose by 8.84%, and China Merchants Shipping, which increased by 6.29% [1] - The A500 ETF fund has also decreased by 0.85%, with a latest price of 0.94 yuan, and has shown active trading with a turnover rate of 11.09% and a transaction volume of 1.739 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - According to Bohai Securities, the Shanghai Composite Index is near previous highs, leading to increased divergence regarding short-term upward movement [2] - The report suggests that if new positive catalysts or policies emerge, market sentiment could improve, potentially leading to further index increases [2] - Key sectors to watch include non-bank financials due to upcoming major financial policy catalysts, defensive investment opportunities in the banking sector, and thematic investment opportunities in TMT, pharmaceuticals, and defense industries [2] Group 3 - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index account for 21.21% of the index, with Kweichow Moutai being the highest at 4.28% [3] - The top ten stocks also include CATL, Ping An Insurance, and China Merchants Bank, all showing varying degrees of decline [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase around the 3400-point level, with significant fluctuations in trading volume, indicating a psychological battle among investors [1][3]. Market Analysis - The market has seen a reduction in trading volume, with approximately 170 billion yuan in volume today, suggesting that large funds are locking in positions rather than selling off [3]. - The 3400-point level is viewed as a short-term target, with expectations for a rebound in sectors such as liquor, real estate, and insurance, which could lead to a larger market rally [3][5]. - The A-share market has lagged behind Hong Kong and U.S. markets, but there is optimism that the index could accelerate its recovery if key sectors reverse their downward trends [5]. Sector Performance - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector has seen a significant drop in trading volume, down by two-thirds compared to March, which raises concerns about its performance [5]. - Other sectors, including rare earths, healthcare, and food and beverage, have shown positive growth, while the liquor sector has also underperformed [5]. Investor Guidance - Investors are advised to maintain a simple holding strategy, focusing on position management and asset allocation, rather than being overly optimistic or pessimistic [7]. - The likelihood of the index continuing to rise is high, with no substantial logic for a major pullback, suggesting that the market may respond positively to favorable news [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests adopting a "wait-and-see" approach for convertible bonds, seeking structural opportunities before the inflection point of the small and medium - cap stocks in the equity market. It also advises paying attention to changes in the liability side and taking appropriate profit - taking on some high - position varieties. Given the current situation, the style preference is elasticity > bond nature [5][27]. - Structurally, investment strategies are proposed from three aspects: option value strategy, absolute price strategy, and theme trading strategy [6][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Overall Market Performance - The overall performance of the convertible bond market last week was positive. The CSI Convertible Bond Index has continuously risen since the end of May and has now returned to the level of late March. In terms of market capitalization style, during the four trading days after the Dragon Boat Festival, the small - cap style index outperformed the medium and large - cap varieties, showing a more trading - like market, which was also reflected in the industry sectors. Affected by factors such as the strong performance of new consumption and positive fundamentals of innovative drugs, the TMT and consumption sectors outperformed the cyclical and manufacturing sectors [5][9]. 2. Cumulative Entanglement: Spiral Rise of Price and Valuation - As the small - cap style returned to the upward range this week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index continued to rise. The median price of convertible bonds in the 90 - 110 yuan parity range has reached 122 yuan, at the upper edge of the oscillation range this year, and the valuation has exceeded 20%. However, compared with the May rebound, this round of the market shows a trend from large - cap convertible bonds to small - cap ones. For fixed - income + investors with a balanced and stable risk preference, the high - valuation environment increases the holding pressure [5][11]. 3. Using the Elimination Method: Liability - Side Emotional Changes May Be More Important 3.1 Credit Risk Impact - Localized - Since 2020, except for 2024, the number of rating downgrades each year has been within 30, and mid - to late June is the peak period for rating adjustments. As of now, the frequency of rating downgrades in 2025 is not significantly higher than the same period from 2020 - 2024, and the downgraded companies mostly face operational pressures. Except for the period since June 2024, the retracement of convertible bond varieties during the rating adjustment periods in other years was relatively controllable. Therefore, the credit risk impact on convertible bonds in 2025 may be "localized" [5][16]. 3.2 Liability - Side Changes and Valuation - Still in Entanglement - Using convertible bond ETFs as a benchmark, in the past 5 trading days, the product has shown a stable circulation scale but continuous share redemptions, indicating that the passive allocation part of convertible bonds may gradually complete profit - taking. The positions of institutions such as public funds and insurance companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have also been adjusted. The trading volume of high - turnover convertible bonds is still at a central level, and the trading has not entered an over - heated stage. Some industries in the consumption and TMT sectors have reached prices above 125 yuan. Whether the liability side will further shift from passive to active remains to be seen, and the key lies in whether the risk preference of the allocation side can increase again during the market trend establishment [5][21]. 4. Investment Strategies - **Option Value Strategy**: It is recommended to focus on new consumption sectors (e.g., Shuiyang Convertible Bond, Xianle Convertible Bond) and technology sectors (e.g., Dinglong Convertible Bond, Jingduan Convertible Bond) [6][28]. - **Absolute Price Strategy**: Bullish on bank varieties (e.g., Industrial Bank Convertible Bond) due to the supply - demand mismatch of convertible bonds, and pay attention to some pharmaceutical varieties with improved fundamentals (e.g., Yirui Convertible Bond, Haoyuan Convertible Bond) [6][28]. - **Theme Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to Huamao Convertible Bond catalyzed by mergers and acquisitions, and strategic sectors related to rare - earth magnetic materials such as Zhenghai Convertible Bond affected by continuous tariff disturbances [6][28].

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a sudden drop in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3400 points before retreating, closing down 0.44% at 3384.82 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86% to 10162.18 points, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.17% to 2037.27 points, with a total trading volume of 14153.73 billion yuan [1] - Sectors such as port shipping, beauty care, innovative drugs, and rare earth permanent magnets saw gains, while sectors like Huawei Ascend, military industry, semiconductors, and software development faced declines [1] Group 2 - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw significant gains, with Zhongke Magnetic Industry (301141) hitting the daily limit, following two consecutive gains for Beikong Technology (600980) [1] - The agriculture sector rallied in the afternoon, led by the seed industry, while short drama concepts surged, with Ciweng Media (002343) hitting the daily limit and other companies like Zhongwen Online (300364) and Guomai Culture (301052) rising over 10% [1] - Dongwu Securities anticipates a series of event catalysts for the technology sector in June, suggesting sustained prosperity and better elasticity for growth stocks due to a weak dollar environment [1] Group 3 - Jifeng Investment Advisors noted that with a series of counter-cyclical adjustment policies being implemented, the A-share market has gradually found a bottom, presenting medium to long-term investment opportunities [2] - The stock market has shown signs of stabilizing profit corrections, opening up space for further upward movement in profits and valuations, recommending investors to buy on dips [2]

Group 1 - The TMT theme ETF has seen significant capital inflow, with industry theme funds collectively rising, particularly TMT and pharmaceutical theme funds, which increased by 3.64% and 2.24% respectively [4] - The domestic new fund market is active, with a total issuance of 31.013 billion units this week [4] - Stock ETFs experienced a net outflow, with broad-based ETFs showing significant net outflows, while the capital outflow from the Sci-Tech Innovation and entrepreneurship theme ETFs was relatively small [4] Group 2 - Platinum prices have reached a new high since 2018, while tungsten prices have hit a new high since 2013 [5] - Lithium prices have fallen below 80,000 yuan per ton, with potential for accelerated capacity clearance in the future; companies with cost advantages and resource expansion in the lithium sector are recommended for attention [5] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has decided to suspend cobalt exports for four months, which may alleviate the global oversupply of cobalt [5] Group 3 - COFs (Covalent Organic Frameworks) are emerging crystalline porous polymers with a wide range of potential applications; the preparation methods include solvent thermal synthesis, ionothermal synthesis, mechanochemical synthesis, and microwave-assisted synthesis [6] - Baolidi has completed ton-level production of COFs, indicating progressive industrialization [6]

Group 1 - The technology sector experienced a downturn today, with TMT and communication sectors collectively declining, while dividend assets showed resilience, with the Dividend Hong Kong Stock ETF (159331) rising nearly 1.5% [1] - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), dividend strategies not only perform well in volatile markets but also serve as a stabilizing component in portfolios, making them suitable for long-term holding [1] - Over the past decade, dividend strategies have only underperformed mainstream stock indices during major bull markets, while they have significantly outperformed in volatile and declining markets [1] Group 2 - The Dividend Hong Kong Stock ETF (code: 159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (code: 930914), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. It selects 30 liquid, consistently dividend-paying, and high-yielding listed companies from the Hong Kong Stock Connect securities [1] - The index primarily consists of stocks from the transportation and resource sectors, while also covering the consumer sector, focusing on investment targets with stable dividend characteristics, reflecting a robust investment style with high dividend yields [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF Initiated Link A (022274) and Link C (022275) [1]

核心观点 转债供给再审视。早在年初市场对浦发、以及高平价杭银/南银转债退出的预期较为充分，然而年内银行板块累计涨 幅接近 10%、更多银行转债的转股预期得以提升，当前齐鲁/常银/重银/上银平价都已达到 115 以上，如果以上银行转 债年内也完成转股，则年内单银行转债的转股&到期、就会导致转债规模减少超 1200 亿，也意味着转债有效供给的等 量减少；除银行转债以外，其余转债年内到期规模 134 亿；年初至今强赎退市转债已经超过 600 亿，预计下半年仍然 有不少强赎退出规模；待发层面当前证监会核准+发审委通过+交易所受理三个环节总共 420 亿元、即使下半年全部发 行规模也有限，且银行标的仅有个别。综合到期&退出以及潜在发行规模，下半年转债规模将持续收缩趋势，预计到 年底转债规模将减少至 6000 亿上下。转债供给（尤其是银行类转债）的减少会对需求造成何种影响？首先是 ETF 类 产品的再平衡需求，会挤出增量资金至其他标的；其次其他公募基金/保险/年金等的溢出配置，这部分虽无法精确测 算、但也有部分转移配置。总体而言，在转债规模持续收缩的背景下、需求还是会有一定溢出效应，尤其是在当前低 利率水平的背景下、资产 ...