Core Viewpoint - The dollar is facing unprecedented challenges as Asian countries begin to sell off their dollar reserves, potentially leading to a massive $2.5 trillion sell-off [1][3]. Group 1: Potential Crisis Analysis - Stephen Jen and Joana Freire from Eurizon SLJ Capital highlight that Asian exporters and investors have accumulated a vast amount of dollar assets due to active international trade, which has created a trade surplus with the U.S. [3][4]. - The ongoing trade war led by the U.S. has prompted Asian investors to reassess their asset allocation strategies, potentially withdrawing funds to stabilize their domestic economies or to hedge against a weakening dollar [3][4]. Group 2: Dollar Vulnerability - Jen and Freire estimate that the dollar assets held by Asian exporters and institutional investors could be around $2.5 trillion, posing a significant downside risk to the dollar against Asian currencies [4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has dropped approximately 8% since reaching its peak in February, with all Asian currencies appreciating against the dollar in the past month, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The New Taiwan Dollar has notably surged, with a single-day increase of 5%, marking the largest daily gain since 1988, and a year-to-date increase of nearly 8%, suggesting that Asian policymakers may be preparing to strengthen local currencies as part of trade negotiations with the U.S. [4][5]. - Jen previously warned that if the Federal Reserve implements interest rate cuts, around $1 trillion could flow back to China as Chinese companies sell off dollar assets [5].

| | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/07 | 4.297 | 4.512 | 3.257 | 2.539 | 3.626 | 3.191 | 0.280 | 3.369 | | 最新变化 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | | 一周变化 | 0.060 | 0.034 | 0.070 | 0.071 | 0.053 | 0.070 | -0.099 | 0.079 | | 一月变化 | 0.267 | -0.007 | -0.120 | -0.111 | -0.145 | -0.112 | -0.162 | -0.088 | | 一年变化 | -0.346 | 0.179 | 0.167 | ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The global economic and political landscape is complex, significantly impacting markets and international relations [1] - The US faces multiple pressures, with a decline in 2-year Treasury yields influenced by trade deficits and corporate pessimism, raising concerns about the impact of trade wars [1] - Traders expect the Federal Reserve to implement three rate cuts this year, with the first potentially in September, although investors remain worried about insufficient policy easing and uncertain market outlook [1] - Recent international trade developments include trade agreements between India and the UK, and the US and the UK, with some UK goods exempt from tariffs imposed by Trump [1] - In the energy market, OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production, leading to a drop in oil prices, with Saudi Arabia warning overproduction among member countries [1] - Political developments include Ukraine approving a mineral agreement with the US, and Oman reaching a freedom of navigation agreement with the US and Yemen [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, with expectations of no change in rates this time but potential future volatility [1] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts between Israel and Houthi forces, and between India and Pakistan, are also areas of concern for investors [1] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index showed a downward trend, with a high of 100.077 and a low of 99.143, closing at 99.239 [2] - The dollar index faced resistance at 99.60, and traders are advised to be cautious until a breakout occurs [2] - The index is currently in a low-level consolidation phase, with key support at 98.90 [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced an overall increase, reaching a high of 3434.61 and a low of 3323.14, closing at 3430.31 [4] - The price is supported by the daily line, and further upward movement is anticipated unless a significant drop occurs [4] - The market is advised to monitor the 3340-3350 range, maintaining a bullish outlook unless this range is broken [7] Euro and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate showed an upward trend, with a low of 1.1279 and a high of 1.1380, closing at 1.1368 [7] - The market is supported at 1.0800 for long-term positions, while short-term fluctuations are being monitored around 1.1320-1.1380 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the Chinese yuan's value has sparked significant market activity, indicating a deeper capital game at play beneath the surface [1]. Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The Hong Kong dollar has also attracted foreign investment, entering the strong-side convertibility zone on May 3, which indicates a high demand for the currency [3]. - The last time the strong-side convertibility mechanism was triggered was on October 28, 2020, when the Hang Seng Index was around 25,000 points, which later surged to over 30,000 points within three months [5]. Group 2: Market Behavior - The apparent market prosperity can often mask underlying risks, as seen when foreign capital typically enters the market before holidays and then sells off afterward, leading to volatility [5]. - The phenomenon of "herding behavior" among investors can diminish the value of perceived good news, as consensus can lead to market pitfalls [6]. Group 3: Institutional vs. Retail Investors - Institutions and retail investors operate under different strategies, with institutions able to anticipate retail movements, often leading to retail investors facing losses [7]. - The evolution of financial models and computational power has enhanced the ability to analyze market behaviors, revealing hidden patterns in trading data [9]. Group 4: Trading Insights - The "Bole System" allows for the quantification of trading behaviors, providing insights into institutional activities and market dynamics [10]. - Continuous institutional participation has been observed, with stock prices recovering and reaching new highs after pullbacks, indicating strong institutional support [13]. Group 5: Market Signals - Recent data indicates a significant increase in the number of stocks actively monitored by institutions, with 70% of stocks falling within their focus, suggesting a robust market environment [17].

台湾地区货币政策主管机构：这波抛汇的力道最主要是来自出口商。 ...

Group 1: Asian Currency Movements - The New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) has risen over the 30 mark against the US Dollar, increasing by 4.5%, reaching the highest level since June 2022 [3] - The offshore Chinese Yuan (CNY) has surpassed the 7.20 mark against the US Dollar for the first time since November last year, experiencing a significant increase of nearly 900 points over two trading days [3] - Other Asian currencies have also appreciated, with the South Korean Won increasing by 1.7%, the Malaysian Ringgit by 1.4%, the Singapore Dollar by 1%, and the Indonesian Rupiah by 1% [3] Group 2: Economic and Trade Developments - Trump indicated that a trade agreement is likely to be reached this week [3] - Trump explicitly stated that he would not prematurely dismiss Powell [3] - The US collected over $17 billion in tariff revenue in April, nearly double the $9.6 billion collected in March [3] - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, retracted his statement suggesting that US Treasury bonds would serve as leverage in negotiations with the US [3] - Buffett affirmed that investments in Japan align with the company's investment philosophy and stated that they would not sell Japanese stocks in the next decade [3]

Group 1 - OPEC+ has increased production, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, suggesting a downward trend in the future [1] - The US dollar has weakened across the board, while Asian currencies have strengthened, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 78% compared to 22% bearish, while the S&P 500 Index has 37% bullish and 63% bearish sentiment [3] - The Nasdaq Index has a strong bullish sentiment at 79%, while the Dow Jones Index shows 64% bullish and 36% bearish [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index is evenly split at 50% bullish and 50% bearish, while the German DAX40 Index has 22% bullish and 78% bearish sentiment [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 60% and bearish of 40%, while the Euro/GBP pair shows 67% bullish and 33% bearish [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a significant bearish sentiment at 85%, while the Euro/AUD pair is more balanced with 54% bullish and 46% bearish [3] - The GBP/USD pair has 24% bullish and 76% bearish sentiment, while the GBP/JPY pair shows 43% bullish and 57% bearish [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 56% and bearish of 44%, while the USD/CAD pair shows 32% bullish and 68% bearish [3] - The USD/CHF pair has a strong bullish sentiment at 96% and only 4% bearish [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 55% and bearish of 45%, while the AUD/JPY pair shows 42% bullish and 58% bearish [4] - The CAD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 62%, while the NZD/USD pair is evenly split at 50% bullish and 50% bearish [4] - The NZD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 63% and bearish of 37%, while the USD/offshore RMB pair shows a significant bearish sentiment at 87% [4]

Group 1 - The US-China trade tensions are ongoing, with the US threatening to delist Chinese companies from US stock exchanges, which could harm the US capital market more than China in the long run [1] - The current state of the A-share market shows that the ChiNext index needs to rise approximately 6% to recover from recent losses, indicating a challenging environment for growth without strong leading stocks [3] - The offshore RMB has seen a significant rebound, with a single-day increase of over 700 points, driven by improved expectations for US-China trade negotiations and increased foreign investment in Chinese assets [5] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve decides to implement monetary easing, it could lead to a short-term upward movement in major indices, but the likelihood of replicating past market rallies is considered low due to diminishing policy effects [7] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on May 6-7 is a critical point for market expectations regarding interest rate changes, which could influence market movements significantly [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US dollar's value, attributing the decline to global investor sentiment and the impact of Trump's economic policies rather than direct actions from major foreign holders like Japan and China [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Depreciation Factors - The US dollar index (DXY) has decreased by 9% this year, raising questions about who is selling dollars and the underlying motivations [1]. - Initial speculation pointed to Japan and China as potential culprits for the dollar's decline, but there is insufficient evidence to support this claim [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the uncertainty stemming from Trump's inconsistent economic policies has led to a broad withdrawal of investors from the US market [2]. Group 2: Foreign Bond Sales - Japan has reportedly sold $20 billion worth of foreign bonds recently, but it remains unclear if this is linked to the volatility in the US bond market [2][3]. - There is no substantial evidence that hedge funds are behind the dollar's decline, as recent reports from the CFTC show no significant liquidation of leveraged positions [3][4]. - Both China and Japan lack a strong incentive to sell US bonds, as doing so would likely lead to currency appreciation and negatively impact their export markets [4]. Group 3: Global Investment Trends - A broader trend of investors seeking to distance themselves from the US market is evident, with many now viewing it as a risk asset rather than a safe haven [5][8]. - The shipping industry reflects this trend, with a significant increase in "blank sailings" to the US, indicating reduced trade activity due to tariff policies [5][8]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs predict that as long as the trade war continues, the depreciation of the dollar is likely to persist, with ongoing reassessment of risk and return associated with dollar assets [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On April 29, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, France, etc. showed various values. For example, the US was 4.174, and there were different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For instance, the latest change in the US was - 0.229, and the one - year change was - 0.448 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of countries like the US, UK, and Germany also had specific values on April 29, 2025. For example, the US was 3.836, with corresponding changes over different time frames. The latest change in the US was - 0.030, and the one - year change was - 1.190 [3]. - **US Dollar to Major Emerging Economies' Currency Exchange Rates**: On April 29, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against currencies such as the South African rand, Brazilian real, etc. were presented, along with their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For example, the exchange rate against the South African rand was 5.621, and the latest change was - 0.60% [3]. - **Stock Indices of Major Economies**: Stock indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ had specific closing values on April 29, 2025, with corresponding percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the Dow Jones closed at 5560.830, and the latest change was 0.58% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different credit bond indices, including emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield, and US and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield, had specific values and changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index was 0.20% [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The A - share, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 had specific closing prices and percentage changes on April 29, 2025. For example, the A - share closed at 3286.65 with a - 0.05% change [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and its环比 changes of indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were presented. For example, the PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 12.30 with a - 0.02环比 change [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums and their环比 changes of some indices were provided. For example, the risk premium of the S&P 500 was 0.03 with a 0.01环比 change [4]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in the A - share, main board, etc. were given. For example, the latest fund flow in the A - share was - 36.66, and the 5 - day average was - 402.32 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were presented. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 10220.83 with a - 342.26环比 change [4]. - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis and amplitude of the IF, IH, and IC contracts were provided. For example, the basis of the IF contract was - 50.28 with an amplitude of - 1.33% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 on April 29, 2025 were presented. For example, the closing price of T00 was 109.120 with a 0.06% change [5]. - The money market rates R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes were given. For example, R001 was 1.5864% with a - 20.00 BP daily change [5].