Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] Core View - The macro - sentiment has temporarily cooled down, and the black sector has slightly declined. The macro - data in June was decent, weakening the expectation of strong stimulus policies. The statement of the Central Urban Conference did not exceed expectations, leading to a temporary cooling of sentiment. The industrial contradictions are not significant. The rally in the futures market has stimulated the mid - and downstream sectors to replenish stocks, driving up the spot prices. The fundamentals have changed little, and the macro - trend dominates the off - season prices, with the market expected to oscillate at a high level [1][2] Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased as expected. On the demand side, steel mills' profitability improved slightly, and the iron - making volume decreased but remained at a high level year - on - year. Due to concentrated arrivals, the congestion at some ports increased, resulting in a slight reduction in port inventories. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With positive market sentiment and good fundamentals, the futures prices are oscillating strongly [2] Carbon Element - Some previously - shut - down mines in the main production areas are gradually resuming production, but there are still mines with production restrictions due to maintenance and underground issues, and resources in some regions are still tight, with the overall supply slowly recovering. At the import end, the China - Mongolia border port has been closed and is expected to resume customs clearance on Wednesday, during which the inventory in the port supervision area continued to decline. Coke enterprises have initiated the first price increase, but steel mills have objections to the increase, delaying the price - hike. Downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. The coke fundamentals are healthy, with strong cost support, and the price increase is expected to be implemented soon, with the short - term futures market expected to oscillate [3] Alloy - Recently, the manganese ore price has remained stable, but the port inventory has increased slightly. The cost of high - grade ore arrivals in the future is expected to drop significantly, and the support for ore prices is weak. On the supply side, manufacturers' profitability has improved, driving an increase in production resumption, and the daily output of ferromanganese silicon has increased for 8 consecutive weeks. On the demand side, the output of finished steel products has remained at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand for ferromanganese silicon is still resilient. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened, and the regional profits have continued to recover. On the supply side, the pace of manufacturers' production resumption has been slow, but there is still room for an increase in supply. On the demand side, the steel output has remained at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy [3] Glass - In the off - season, the demand has declined, and the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although the sales at the beginning of the week were good due to downstream restocking, the sustainability is questionable. After the futures price rally, speculative demand may be stimulated. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and the internal contradictions are not prominent, but market sentiment has a significant impact. Recently, the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment has increased, and the market's concern about supply - side production cuts has risen. After the price increase, the mid - and downstream sectors have continued to purchase, and manufacturers have raised prices accordingly. The futures market is expected to oscillate [6] Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash remains unchanged. There are rumors in the market about anti - cut - throat competition in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting volume. Currently, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has slightly declined, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with a weak demand outlook. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Market sentiment affects the futures market, and the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive - feedback hedging opportunities [6] Specific Varieties Steel - The macro - data shows that the overall economy is still strong. After the Central Urban Work Conference, the expectation of policy stimulus has cooled down. The crude steel output in the first 6 months decreased by 3.0% year - on - year, and the pressure for subsequent production cuts is limited. The futures market is oscillating at a high level. The supply and demand of both rebar and hot - rolled coils have decreased, and the inventory changes are limited, with the absolute inventory at a relatively low level in history. The downstream maintains a normal purchasing rhythm. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season terminal demand [8] Iron Ore - The spot market quotations fluctuated within 4 yuan/ton, and port transactions increased. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased as expected. On the demand side, steel mills' profitability improved slightly, and the iron - making volume decreased but remained at a high level year - on - year. Due to concentrated arrivals, the congestion at some ports increased, resulting in a slight reduction in port inventories. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With positive market sentiment and good fundamentals, the futures prices are oscillating strongly. The demand is at a high level, and there is limited downward - driving force in the fundamentals. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise rather than fall, but the upside is also limited, with the price mainly oscillating [8][9] Scrap Steel - The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The apparent demand and output of rebar decreased slightly, in line with off - season characteristics, and the total inventory continued to decline, indicating some resilience in off - season demand. The supply of scrap steel has increased slightly on a daily basis but is still low year - on - year, with resources slightly tight. On the demand side, after the increase in steel prices, the profits of electric - arc furnaces in some regions have recovered, and the operating hours have increased, leading to a slight increase in the daily consumption of electric - arc furnaces. The iron - making volume of blast furnaces has decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also decreased. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has decreased. The inventory in steel mills has decreased slightly. The fundamentals of scrap steel are stable, and the spot prices have followed the upward trend of the black sector due to macro - sentiment [9] Coke - In the futures market, coke prices oscillated. On the supply side, most coke enterprises maintained normal production, while a few with profit pressure reduced production, and the coke output decreased slightly. Coke enterprises have initiated the first price increase, but steel mills have objections to the increase, delaying the price - hike. Downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. The coke fundamentals are healthy, with strong cost support, and the price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures market is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][12][13] Coking Coal - In the futures market, coking coal prices first declined and then recovered, showing an overall oscillating trend. On the supply side, some previously - shut - down mines in the main production areas are gradually resuming production, but there are still mines with production restrictions, and the overall supply has not returned to the previous high level. At the import end, the China - Mongolia border port has been closed and is expected to resume customs clearance on Wednesday, during which the inventory in the port supervision area continued to decline. On the demand side, the coke output decreased slightly, but there is still a rigid demand for coking coal, and downstream enterprises are actively replenishing stocks, with the mine inventory continuously decreasing. The current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to mine production resumption and Mongolian coal imports. The futures market is expected to oscillate in the short term [13] Glass - The average national price of glass increased slightly. The macro - sentiment has cooled down. In the off - season, the demand has declined, and the deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, with the inventory days of raw glass increasing, indicating mainly speculative purchases by the downstream, and the real demand has not improved significantly. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and the internal contradictions are not prominent, but market sentiment has a significant impact. Recently, the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment has increased, and the market's concern about supply - side production cuts has risen. After the price increase, the mid - and downstream sectors have continued to purchase, and manufacturers have raised prices accordingly. The futures market is expected to oscillate. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If the policies exceed expectations, there may be a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [14][15] Soda Ash - The price of heavy soda ash delivered to Shahe decreased. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the long - term pressure still exists, with high - level production and supply pressure. Today, the output of Yuanxing decreased, and some soda ash plants are under maintenance, resulting in an overall decrease in output. On the demand side, heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid - demand procurement. There are still some ignition production lines that have not produced glass, and the daily melting volume of float glass is expected to increase. There are rumors in the market about anti - cut - throat competition in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting volume. Currently, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has slightly declined, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with a weak demand outlook. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Market sentiment affects the futures market, and the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [14][16] Ferromanganese Silicon - The futures prices of ferromanganese silicon oscillated. The supply - demand contradiction in the spot market is limited, and the prices are stable. The first price increase of coke has been implemented, strengthening the cost support for ferromanganese silicon. Recently, the manganese ore price has remained stable, but the port inventory has increased slightly, and the cost of high - grade ore arrivals in the future is expected to drop significantly, with weak support for ore prices. On the supply side, manufacturers' profitability has improved, driving an increase in production resumption, and the daily output of ferromanganese silicon has increased for 8 consecutive weeks. On the demand side, the output of finished steel products has remained at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand for ferromanganese silicon is still resilient. The tender price of HBIS in July was higher than expected. In the short term, the futures prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. In the long term, the supply - demand relationship will tend to be looser, and it will be more difficult to reduce inventory, with pressure on prices [16] Ferrosilicon - The futures prices of ferrosilicon oscillated. The fundamentals have limited driving force, and the spot market has remained stable. The price of semi - coke decreased this week, weakening the cost support for ferrosilicon and recovering the regional profits. On the supply side, the pace of manufacturers' production resumption has been slow, and attention should be paid to the future increase in production. On the demand side, the steel output has remained at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. The tender price of HBIS in July was higher than expected. The supply of magnesium ingots is temporarily tight, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced products is low, and there is resistance to price increases. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy. In the short term, the futures prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. In the long term, the market supply gap will narrow, making it more difficult to reduce inventory, with pressure on prices [17]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **consumption building materials industry** and its performance in 2024, highlighting a **7.2% year-on-year decline** in revenue for the sector [1] - The **real estate demand** remains weak, impacting the consumption building materials sector, which has seen continuous revenue pressure over the past few quarters [1] Key Points and Arguments - **Revenue Trends**: The revenue growth for the consumption building materials sector is expected to decline in 2024, with quarterly comparisons showing fluctuations: **0.2% growth**, **5.3% decline**, **10.7% decline**, **10.9% decline**, and **5.7% decline** from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025 [1] - **Profitability Issues**: The industry faces challenges such as **declining gross margins** due to reduced demand and increased expense ratios. Some companies have reported increased impairments on goodwill and assets [2] - **Improvement in Profitability**: In Q1 2024, some companies managed to stabilize and improve profitability through better gross margins and expense control, with half of the consumption building materials companies reporting year-on-year gross margin increases [2] - **Net Profit Performance**: Among 26 analyzed companies, **10 reported year-on-year net profit increases**, and **9 showed improvements in net profit margins** both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, particularly in waterproofing and coating sectors [3] - **Market Resilience**: Despite the downturn in new housing demand, the sector shows resilience supported by the high demand for second-hand housing, which could lead to revenue growth if new housing demand stabilizes [4] Additional Insights - **Future Growth Potential**: Companies with strong brand and channel capabilities are expected to have significant growth potential. Key players mentioned include **Sanhe Tree, Tubaobao, Beixing Building Materials, and others** [5] - **Cement Industry Outlook**: The cement sector is projected to see a bottoming out in Q1 2024, with expectations of gradual improvement in profitability throughout the year. The industry experienced a **35% year-on-year decline** in scale in 2024 [5] - **Price Trends**: Cement prices are expected to rise after a period of decline, with a **1.4% year-on-year drop** in demand noted in Q1 2024, but a recovery is anticipated post-Chinese New Year [6] - **Cost Management**: The decline in coal prices is expected to stabilize industry profitability, with a projected **6% year-on-year decline** in cement demand for 2025 [7] - **Investment and Dividends**: Companies with low cash flow and stable investment returns, such as **Tapai Group and Ningxia Building Materials**, are highlighted for their significant profit contributions [8] Conclusion - The consumption building materials and cement industries are navigating through challenging market conditions, with signs of potential recovery in profitability and demand stabilization. Key players are expected to leverage their market positions for future growth opportunities.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The glass fiber industry is expected to perform well, with strong earnings forecasts for companies like China National Materials and China Jushi, driven by wind power demand and AI applications [6][10] - The cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has decreased month-on-month, indicating a potential recovery in demand [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on special glass fibers and the African supply chain, with leading companies being the main investment focus for the year [10] Summary by Sections Glass Fiber - The mid-year earnings forecast for glass fiber is optimistic, with China National Materials expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 670-830 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186-254% [6] - China Jushi's net profit is projected to be around 1.65-1.70 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 163-171% [6] - The demand for ordinary glass fiber remains under pressure, while special electronic fabrics are experiencing accelerated growth due to the AI wave [6][10] Cement - Cement prices have continued to decline, with average prices at 352.74 yuan per ton, down 0.65 yuan month-on-month and 45.32 yuan year-on-year [27] - The average shipment rate for cement companies in key regions is 43%, remaining stable month-on-month but down 3 percentage points year-on-year [27] - There are plans for price increases in certain regions as prices approach bottom levels [27] Glass - The domestic float glass market prices are stable, with slight increases in some areas, and overall demand remains cautious [9][41] - The production capacity utilization rate for the float glass industry is at 82.09%, with a total of 283 production lines [9] - Inventory levels have decreased, with a total of 5.734 million weight boxes, down 97,000 weight boxes month-on-month [9][41] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on special glass fibers and the African supply chain, highlighting companies like China National Materials and Keda Manufacturing as key players [10] - It also suggests that the demand for building materials is expected to rise, particularly in the renovation sector, benefiting companies with strong business models [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the steel industry is "strong - biased", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [1][2][6]. - The short - term outlook for iron ore is "sideways - strong", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [2][9][10]. - The short - term outlook for scrap steel is "sideways" [10]. - The short - term outlook for coke is "sideways" [10][12][13]. - The short - term outlook for coking coal is "sideways" [13]. - The short - term outlook for glass is "sideways", and the long - term view is to maintain a "sideways" view [6][14]. - The short - term outlook for soda ash is "sideways", and the long - term outlook is that the price center will decline [6][14][16]. - The short - term outlook for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is to follow the sector fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term prices face upward pressure [16][17]. Core View of the Report - The market's optimistic expectations continue due to topics such as "anti - involution" and coal industry self - discipline. The macro - trend dominates the market during the off - season. With frequent macro - level positives and good fundamentals, short - term prices are expected to run strongly. The industry should focus on policy implementation and off - season demand performance [1][2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased, in line with expectations. Steel mills' profitability improved slightly, and hot metal production decreased but remained at a high level year - on - year. Due to concentrated arrivals, the port inventory decreased slightly, and overall supply - demand contradictions are not prominent. With positive market sentiment and good fundamentals, the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. Carbon Element - Some previously shut - down mines in major production areas are gradually resuming production, but there are still mines with production restrictions, and overall supply is slowly recovering. The China - Mongolia border port is closed, and the inventory in the port supervision area continues to decline. Coke producers have initiated the first price increase, but steel mills have objections to the increase, delaying the time. Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively replenishing stocks. Coke fundamentals are healthy, with strong cost support, and the price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. Alloys Manganese - Silicon - The price of manganese ore has remained stable recently, but port inventory has increased slightly, and the cost of high - grade ore arrivals in the future is expected to decline significantly. The supply side has seen an increase in production due to improved profitability. The demand side remains resilient as the output of finished steel products remains at a relatively high level. The tender price of HBIS in July was higher than expected. The current fundamentals of silicomanganese are stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the sector fluctuations in the short term [16]. Ferrosilicon - The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened, and the profitability in production areas has been continuously restored. The supply side is expected to increase in the future, although the current resumption of production is slow. The demand side remains resilient as steel production remains high. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and the futures price is expected to follow the sector fluctuations in the short term [6][17]. Glass - Demand is declining during the off - season, and deep - processing demand continues to weaken. Supply is increasing as there are still two production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is on the rise. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. With the "anti - involution" sentiment rising, the market is worried about supply - side production cuts. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [6][14]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. There are rumors of "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with weak demand expectations. The demand for light soda ash from downstream is weak, and manufacturers are continuously reducing prices. Although sentiment affects the futures price, the long - term surplus pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [6][14].

Group 1 - The glass futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 1098.00 CNY/ton and fluctuating between a high of 1105.00 CNY and a low of 1057.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.56% [1] - One德期货 indicates that despite being a traditional off-season, inventory depletion has exceeded expectations, and there are expectations for improved demand in the upcoming peak season, with price levels expected to range between 1010 and 1170 CNY [1] - 新湖期货 emphasizes the high inventory levels and seasonal demand weakness, suggesting that without significant demand recovery, the market should be viewed cautiously, focusing on market sentiment and macroeconomic policy developments [1] Group 2 - 东海期货 notes an increase in daily glass melting volume week-on-week, leading to increased supply pressure during the off-season, while the real estate sector remains weak, causing a decline in downstream processing orders [2] - Profit margins for float glass using natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke as fuel have increased week-on-week, but overall profit levels remain low [2] - The market anticipates production cuts in the glass industry due to macroeconomic policies aimed at reducing internal competition, providing some support for glass prices [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [4][70]. Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from a shift towards healthy competition driven by technological innovation and quality, as highlighted by a recent initiative from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce [1]. - The demand side is anticipated to see a release of new demand due to urban renewal, leading to a marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance in the construction materials industry [1]. Summary by Sections Cement - National cement prices decreased by 0.4% week-on-week, with specific regions like Anhui, Hubei, and Shaanxi seeing declines of 10-20 CNY per ton. Despite seasonal demand weakness, major enterprises maintained an average shipment rate of 43% [2][20]. - Future price trends are expected to show slight fluctuations due to planned price increases in regions like Ningxia and the Yangtze River Delta, although demand remains subdued [2][20]. Glass - The domestic float glass market saw stable prices with minor increases, driven by some replenishment demand from downstream sectors. However, supply-demand contradictions persist, and manufacturers are focused on sales [2][34]. - The photovoltaic glass market is under pressure, with low operating rates among downstream component manufacturers leading to cautious purchasing behavior [2][37]. Fiberglass - The price of domestic non-alkali roving remained stable, with the average price for 2400tex winding direct yarn at 3,300-3,700 CNY per ton, unchanged from the previous week [2][40]. - Electronic yarn prices are expected to rise due to tight supply-demand conditions, with G75 electronic yarn quoted at 8,800-9,200 CNY per ton [2][40]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resilient consumer building material leaders, particularly those benefiting from second-hand housing and stock renovation demand, recommending companies like Sanke Tree, Beixin Building Materials, and others [3]. - For the cement and fiberglass sectors, companies like Conch Cement and China Jushi are highlighted for their potential recovery in performance [3]. - In the construction sector, firms such as China Railway Construction and China State Construction Engineering are recommended due to their improving asset quality amid a challenging environment [3].

Summary of Glass Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The glass industry is currently experiencing a turbulent phase, with expectations for a potential rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, a fundamental reversal in the long-term trend appears unlikely due to persistent challenges in the real estate market, supply-side constraints, and significant inventory pressures [2][5][9]. Key Points and Arguments - **Inventory and Price Dynamics**: In H1 2025, glass inventory in Hubei increased by 44% year-on-year, leading to a decline in futures prices. The futures market is under pressure due to regional price arbitrage in the spot market [1][2]. - **Cost and Losses**: Futures prices fell below the cash flow cost of petroleum coke facilities in Hubei by 25%, resulting in severe losses that contributed to a recent price rebound [1][3]. - **Production Capacity**: Current daily production capacity stands at 158,000 tons, the lowest in five years, but only a 10-12% reduction from historical peaks. Approximately 22% of production facilities have been operational for 8-10 years and are nearing a cold repair period [1][6]. - **Market Expectations**: The market is expected to remain volatile in Q3 2025, with no significant recovery in the real estate sector to drive demand. If demand does not improve and inventory continues to accumulate, market-driven production cuts may occur in Q4 without government intervention [1][6][9]. - **Future Supply Needs**: To achieve supply-demand balance, the industry needs to reduce production by about 10%. Current supply is estimated at 4.5-4.7 million tons, necessitating an increase of approximately 500,000 tons to reach a demand level of 5 million tons [3][8]. - **Regulatory Impact**: The establishment of a unified national market and related policies may reduce ineffective competition and encourage the exit of low-quality production capacities, which could have a positive long-term impact on the industry [5][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Feedback Loop**: The main factors affecting the negative feedback loop in the glass industry include a weak real estate market, lack of significant production cuts, and ongoing inventory pressures. Breaking this cycle requires effective production cuts or sustained demand improvement, neither of which is currently in place [9][10]. - **Production Decisions**: The industry typically avoids production cuts in H1 due to seasonal demand, with reductions more likely in Q3 or Q4 when many facilities reach their operational limits and require maintenance [11][12]. - **Cost Structure**: The cash costs for petroleum coke and natural gas are approximately 1,200-1,220 RMB and 1,300-1,350 RMB, respectively, while coal gas is cheaper at about 950-1,000 RMB. Current glass prices are around 1,000 RMB, close to the bottom [13][14]. - **Profitability Context**: Despite current losses of about 200 RMB per ton, the glass industry has historically seen profits exceeding 30% from 2016 to 2021, indicating that supply decisions are more influenced by cash flow and operational age rather than immediate profitability [15]. Regional Supply Disturbances - In the Shahe region, coal-to-gas projects are underway but face operational instability. Hubei plans to phase out petroleum coke facilities over the next few years, increasing the proportion of clean energy, although no definitive timeline has been established [16][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price rose. Supply tightened due to safety inspections in major production areas, potential closure of the production - capacity replacement window, and the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law. Demand increased during the "peak - summer" period. This may raise steel production costs and steel prices, and attract more funds to the coal industry. Investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [3]. - In the stock market, the overall situation is that the Shanghai Composite Index had a good performance with an opening - low and closing - high trend, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index had minor fluctuations. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7][8]. - For gold, although there was an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year, the long - term upward trend remains. It has adjusted to an important support level, and investors can buy on dips [11][12]. - For iron ore, the macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. Technically, it maintained a strong high - level consolidation, so a bullish view is appropriate [16]. - For glass, the supply side has no significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream restocking power is weak. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it pulled up near the end of the session, so a bullish view is appropriate [20]. - For methanol, as of July 9, 2025, China's methanol port inventory increased. The East China region saw inventory accumulation, while the South China region had destocking. With continued inventory accumulation and visible foreign - vessel unloading, a short - selling strategy with a light position is advisable [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. It is expected that annual production will be reduced by 1.2 billion tons. The Mineral Resources Law implemented on July 1 raised the coal - mine production - capacity threshold, causing 30% of small coal mines to face exit, such as the suspension of 12 million tons of production capacity in Shanxi. The supply of high - quality coking coal tightened, and the spot price rose by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Demand: During the "peak - summer" period, the daily consumption of power plants exceeded 2.4 million tons, the coking industry's operating rate reached 82% (a new high this year), the daily iron - water output rebounded to 2.35 million tons, and the coking - plant operating rate was 73%. Steel mills' passive restocking boosted short - term demand [3]. Stock Market - The Shanghai Composite Index had an opening - low and closing - high trend, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index had minor fluctuations. Customs data showed that China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.9% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7][8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in gold prices. However, the long - term upward trend remains, and it has adjusted to an important support level, so investors can buy on dips [11][12]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and steel mills' profits are acceptable, resulting in high iron - water output. The industrial chain is in a positive - feedback repair state. Technically, it maintained a strong high - level consolidation, so a bullish view is appropriate [16]. Glass - The supply side has no significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream restocking power is weak. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it pulled up near the end of the session, so a bullish view is appropriate [20]. Methanol - As of July 9, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 718,900 tons, an increase of 45,200 tons from the previous period. The East China region saw an inventory increase of 61,000 tons, while the South China region had a decrease of 15,800 tons. With continued inventory accumulation and visible foreign - vessel unloading of 177,200 tons, a short - selling strategy with a light position is advisable [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic export and financial data are better than expected, boosting the sentiment of the domestic market. However, short - term external risks need to be noted. The domestic risk preference continues to rise, and the short - term optimistic sentiment persists [2][3]. - The short - term trends of various assets are as follows: The stock index fluctuates strongly in the short term; treasury bonds fluctuate at a high level; among commodity sectors, black metals rebound from a low level, non - ferrous metals fluctuate, energy and chemicals fluctuate, and precious metals fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US president's announcement of more tariff letters leads the EU to take counter - measures, and the market takes a wait - and - see attitude. Fed officials indicate no urgent need for interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index rebounds in the short term [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continues to rise, and export and financial data in June are better than expected, with economic growth accelerating. Policy emphasizes "anti - involution" and "stabilizing employment", which helps boost domestic risk preference in the short term [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, metals, and home appliances, the domestic stock market rises slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive weakens, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fluctuate due to policy expectations and避险情绪. Silver shows a strong upward trend, and the gold - silver ratio is significantly repaired. In the long - term, the support logic for precious metals remains solid [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel futures and spot prices continue to rebound. Although the export in the first half of the year is good, the demand weakens in reality, and the supply decreases due to the implementation of production - restriction policies. The cost support is strong, and the short - term steel market is still treated with a rebound mindset [5]. Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore continue to rebound. The fundamentals of iron ore weaken marginally, and the implementation of production - restriction policies needs further attention. The short - term macro - logic dominates, and the price fluctuates strongly [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remain flat, and the futures prices rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys decreases, and the short - term prices may follow the rebound of coal prices [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The concern about tariffs resurfaces. The future trend of copper prices depends on the time when tariffs are implemented. If implemented before August 1, copper prices will continue to weaken; otherwise, the price may be supported [11]. Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum drops significantly. In addition to tariff concerns, the significant increase in social inventory is also an important factor [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering cost support, the short - term price will fluctuate strongly, but the upward space is limited [11]. Tin - The supply increases slightly, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upward space will be suppressed in the medium term [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate rises significantly. The production increases, and the inventory accumulates. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon rises. The production increases, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy [14]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon rises. The supply is stable at a low level, and the downstream prices change. Affected by policy news, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The concern about tariffs continues, and the demand worry puts pressure on oil prices. However, the short - term tightness in the spot market supports the price [16][17]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates. The shipment volume decreases, the factory inventory starts to accumulate, and the demand in the peak season is average [17]. PX - The price of PX is expected to fluctuate weakly. The upstream profit is greatly reduced, and the downstream demand may weaken [17]. PTA - The PTA market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The price has limited upward space in the short term and may decline [18]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol returns significantly, and the demand slows down. It will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [18]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber follows the polyester sector and fluctuates weakly. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high [18][19]. Methanol - The fundamental situation of methanol deteriorates, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, while the 01 contract can be considered for long positions [19]. PP - The supply pressure of PP increases, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price center is expected to move down [19]. LLDPE - The demand for LLDPE is in the off - season, and the inventory increases. The short - term price may rebound slightly, but the long - term price center may move down [19]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The export inspection volume of US soybeans is lower than expected, and the压榨 volume is expected to decline. The future of Sino - US soybean trade relations will directly affect US soybeans [20]. Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans are under pressure, and the risk of downward pressure on soybean meal and rapeseed meal increases. The consumption of rapeseed meal in the peak season is far from expected, and the inventory is slow to decline [21][22]. Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - The supply and demand of soybean oil are loose, and the price difference is weak. The inventory of rapeseed oil is slow to decline, and the policy premium support weakens [23]. Palm Oil - The inventory of palm oil is repaired, and the price is under downward pressure in the short term. However, the export demand may be supported [24]. Corn - Affected by factors such as the substitution of new wheat and the auction of imported corn, the corn market is under pressure. However, there is still a risk of rebound after the over - decline [25]. Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs increases, and the pig price is under pressure at a high level. The futures price may decline slightly in the short term [25].

股票方面，截至14日，多晶硅个股通威股份7月至今大涨23%，大全能源大涨21%；光伏玻璃亚玛顿大 涨近八成；钢铁股金岭矿业大涨三成，重庆钢铁大涨15%。 据统计，7月以来商品价格上涨较多的品类集中在新能源产业链（多晶硅、碳酸锂）、黑色系（焦煤焦 炭、铁矿石、螺纹钢等）、建材（玻璃、PVC）、化工（碱、尿素、纸浆、橡胶、苯乙烯等）、生猪 等。 本轮国内商品期货领涨的是多晶硅，多晶硅主力合约14日延续涨势，触及近三个月新高。7月以来，多 晶硅主力合约已大涨近25%。 最近一年多，政策层面围绕"反内卷"频频发声。去年7月底中央政治局会议指出，要强化行业自律，防 止"内卷式"恶性竞争。今年高层更是密集发声，先是3月政府工作报告强调整治内卷式竞争，6月修订出 台《反不正当竞争法》，再到7月中央财经委会议提出依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争。 行业方面，目前光伏、水泥、钢铁等部分行业已开展减产工作。据悉，国内十大头部光伏玻璃企业达成 协议，计划自7月开始集体减产30%。多晶硅的减产执行力度超预期，市场甚至传出"收储"的声音，导 致多晶硅现货价格大幅回升。 【深圳商报讯】（记者陈燕青）随着"反内卷"政策信号持续释放，市场对行业 ...