Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a significant turnaround in Q4 2024, reporting a net profit of 0.8 billion yuan for the first time in a single quarter since its establishment, with a full-year revenue of 32.164 billion yuan, representing a 92.06% increase year-on-year [4][8] - The launch of the new model B10 has commenced pre-sales, showcasing competitive pricing and advanced features, particularly in the lidar-equipped versions [6][27] - The company is expected to maintain high growth in revenue and sales, with projections of 50,000 units sold in 2025 and potential to reach 1 million units in the medium to long term [31][35] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 32.164 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 92.06%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.821 billion yuan, a significant reduction from previous losses [4][8] - The gross margin for the year was 8.38%, with Q4 achieving a record high of 13.3% [11][33] - The average revenue per vehicle in 2024 was 109,500 yuan, while the average cost per vehicle was 100,300 yuan, indicating a notable cost reduction due to scale effects [17] Product Development - The company introduced the Leap 3.5 architecture, enhancing the integration and intelligence of its vehicles, with the B10 model being the first to feature this new system [20][23] - The B10 model is positioned competitively in the market, with pre-sale prices ranging from 109,800 to 139,800 yuan, depending on the features [6][28] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of 58.302 billion yuan, 84.036 billion yuan, and 116.348 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 81.3%, 44.1%, and 38.5% [35] - The net profit projections for the same period are -0.72 billion yuan, 2.488 billion yuan, and 5.081 billion yuan, indicating a path towards profitability [35] Market Positioning - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for high-performance electric vehicles, with a focus on cost control and product innovation [34][35] - The competitive landscape includes established players like NIO, Li Auto, and BYD, with the company expected to outperform these peers due to its unique product offerings and strategic partnerships [34]

| 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 3 月 | 12 日│中国香港 | 乘用车 | 证券研究报告 零跑汽车 (9863 HK) 港股通 Q4 毛利率新高并盈利，B10 有望爆款 公司 24 年营收/归母净利+321.6/-28.2 亿，同比+92.0%/减亏 14.0 亿，毛利 率达 8.4%；24Q4 营收/归母净利+134.6/+0.8 亿，同比+155.0%/转正；符 合此前公司业绩预告(24 年营收不低于 305 亿元且毛利率不低于 8%，Q4 实现净利润转正)。25 年公司将迎全球化新车周期，叠加渠道端提前布局和 下沉，LEAP3.5 架构进一步集成降本，我们预计公司 25-27 年营收将保持 高速增长且毛利率持续提升，25 年有望实现全年盈利。维持买入评级。 规模效应+销量结构优化+成本管理，Q4 毛利率创新高并盈利 公司 24Q4 毛利率和净利率达 13.3%和 0.6%，提前一年实现单季度净利润 转正的目标。主要系：①24Q4 销量 12.09 万辆，同/环比+118.5%/+40.3%， 规模效应放大；我们预计 25 年公司销量有望大 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating for the company to "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to transition from an electric smart vehicle manufacturer to an artificial intelligence (AI) company, with potential for reevaluation in both AI capabilities and automotive performance by 2025 [7][43]. - The AI upgrade strategy includes short-term advancements in high-level intelligent driving and the "Ideal Classmate" application, with long-term goals of embodied intelligence and the concept of a "Silicon-based Family" [7][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Business - The stability of the range-extended vehicle base and the potential success of new electric models may be underestimated. The market perceives excessive competition for models L6/L7/L8/L9, but the penetration rate of domestic brands in the 300,000 RMB and above market remains low, indicating significant growth potential [8][44]. - The report anticipates that the company will deliver over 500,000 vehicles in 2024, with all models priced above 250,000 RMB, positioning itself in the high-end family SUV segment [14]. 2. AI Upgrade - The company’s AI technology foundation includes a language model (Mind GPT) and a spatial model for intelligent driving, with plans for future integration into a unified model that can process language, images, and actions [32]. - The company has made significant advancements in intelligent driving technology, with multiple upgrades planned for 2024, aiming for L3 autonomous driving capabilities by 2025 and L4 in three years [35][36]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The combination of AI potential and the stability of the automotive base suggests that the company is likely to experience a reevaluation. The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 13.35 billion RMB and 19.18 billion RMB, respectively, with a corresponding market capitalization of 225.4 billion RMB as of March 11, 2025, leading to a PE ratio of 17X and 12X for those years [6][44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its investment in intelligent driving to ensure a competitive advantage, while expanding its components and export business to enhance long-term profitability [5] - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted downwards due to intense competition in the domestic new energy vehicle market, with 2025 revenue projected at 556.7 billion and 2026 at 681.4 billion [5] - The company aims for a breakeven point in 2025, with a delivery target of 500,000 to 600,000 vehicles, including 50,000 to 60,000 for export [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 was 16,747 million, with a projected increase to 55,665 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 73.1% [8] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to improve from -3,518 million in 2023 to -423 million in 2025, with a significant increase to 1,921 million by 2027 [8] - The gross margin is projected to rise from 0.5% in 2023 to 10.6% in 2025, indicating improved cost management and product mix [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its investment in intelligent driving to ensure a competitive advantage, while expanding its components and export business to enhance long-term profitability [5] - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted downwards due to intense competition in the domestic new energy vehicle market, with 2025 revenue projected at 556.7 billion and 2026 at 681.4 billion [5] - The company aims for a breakeven point in 2025, with a delivery target of 500,000 to 600,000 vehicles, including 50,000 to 60,000 for export [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 16,747 million, with a year-on-year growth of 35.2%. The projected revenue for 2025 is 55,665 million, reflecting a growth rate of 73.1% [8] - The Non-GAAP net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 3,518 million in 2023 to a loss of 423 million in 2025, with a significant turnaround projected for 2027 with a profit of 1,921 million [8] - The gross margin is expected to increase from 0.5% in 2023 to 10.6% in 2025, indicating improved cost management and product mix [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is increasing its investment in intelligent driving to ensure a competitive advantage, while expanding its components and export business to enhance long-term profitability [5] - Due to intense competition in the domestic new energy vehicle market, revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to CNY 55.67 billion and CNY 68.14 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at CNY 81.32 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 73.1%, 22.4%, and 19.3% [5] - The company achieved its first quarterly profit in Q4 2024, with revenue of CNY 13.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 155%, and a GAAP net profit of CNY 0.08 billion [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: CNY 16.75 billion (2023), CNY 32.16 billion (2024), CNY 55.67 billion (2025), CNY 68.14 billion (2026), and CNY 81.32 billion (2027) [8] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts are: CNY -3.52 billion (2023), CNY -2.35 billion (2024), CNY -0.42 billion (2025), CNY 0.39 billion (2026), and CNY 1.92 billion (2027) [8] - The company aims for a gross margin of 10-11% in 2025 and targets to achieve breakeven for the year [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The "Dual Credit Policy" has undergone multiple revisions since its inception in 2017 to promote energy conservation and the development of new energy vehicles in the automotive industry [3][4][7] - The latest revision aims to address issues such as inflexibility in the existing mechanism and significant fluctuations in credit prices, while also supporting the "dual carbon" goals [7][8] - The policy has significantly influenced the automotive sector, leading to a 25-fold increase in new energy vehicle production from 2016 to 2024 [20] Summary by Sections Policy Analysis - The "Dual Credit Policy" was first introduced in 2017 to create a market mechanism for promoting energy conservation and the development of new energy vehicles [4] - The policy has been revised multiple times to adapt to industry changes and improve its effectiveness [6][8] Historical Development of the Dual Credit Policy - The first version of the policy was implemented in 2018, with subsequent revisions in 2020 and 2023 to enhance its flexibility and effectiveness [5][6][7] - The 2023 revision introduced a credit pool system to alleviate supply-demand imbalances and improve policy stability [8][10] Implementation Effectiveness - The policy has led to a significant reduction in average fuel consumption, with the industry average dropping from 6.43 liters per 100 kilometers in 2016 to 3.78 liters in 2023 [20] - The total transaction amount of credits reached 25.2 billion yuan, indicating active participation from industry players [20] Future Requirements - The proposed requirements for 2026 and 2027 include setting new energy vehicle credit ratios at 48% and 58%, respectively [9][10] - Adjustments to the calculation methods for new energy vehicle credits are also planned to align with evolving industry standards [12][19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is expected to see significant advancements in intelligent driving technology, particularly with Huawei's plans to launch L3 architecture by 2025, which will enhance the driving experience [6] - The introduction of new models such as the AITO M8 and M9, which feature advanced intelligent driving capabilities and improved energy efficiency, indicates a strong market potential for these vehicles [4][6] - Huawei's collaboration with various automotive manufacturers, including BYD and SAIC, is expected to strengthen the smart transformation of traditional automakers, expanding its influence in the market [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The automotive sector is projected to outperform the overall market, driven by technological advancements and new model launches [1][6] - The demand for intelligent driving solutions is increasing, with Huawei's L3 level driving technology expected to play a crucial role in this transition [6] New Model Launches - The AITO M8 is set to be priced between 368,000 to 458,000 yuan, while the M9 will start at 478,000 yuan, both featuring advanced intelligent driving configurations [4] - The new M9 model will have an engine power increase from 112 kW to 118 kW and a reduction in WLTC fuel consumption from 0.88 L/100 km to 0.62 L/100 km, showcasing improved energy efficiency [4] Strategic Collaborations - Huawei is expanding its partnerships with automotive manufacturers, moving from second-tier companies to leading brands like BYD and SAIC, enhancing its market presence [5] - The introduction of the "HI" and "Smart Selection" models by Huawei aims to empower car manufacturers in their smart transformation efforts [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that BYD's recent H-share placement of 1.3 billion shares at a price of 335.2 HKD per share is the largest equity refinancing project in the global automotive industry in the past decade, attracting significant long-term capital support, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's growth prospects [4] - The report maintains and raises the earnings forecasts for BYD for 2024 and 2025-2026, projecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 40.02 billion, 53.18 billion (+8.1%), and 64.67 billion (+8.1) for the years 2024-2026, respectively [4] - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 24.0, 18.1, and 14.9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting a positive long-term outlook for the company [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2022 was 424.06 billion, with projections of 602.32 billion for 2023, 740.11 billion for 2024, 900.71 billion for 2025, and 1,016.88 billion for 2026, showing a year-on-year growth of 96.2%, 42.0%, 22.9%, 21.7%, and 12.9% respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 16.62 billion in 2022, expected to rise to 30.04 billion in 2023, 40.02 billion in 2024, 53.18 billion in 2025, and 64.67 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 445.9%, 80.7%, 33.2%, 32.9%, and 21.6% respectively [6] - Gross margin is projected to improve from 17.0% in 2022 to 21.8% in 2026, while net margin is expected to increase from 3.9% to 6.4% over the same period [6] Market Expansion and Product Development - BYD has entered over 100 countries and regions across six continents, with overseas sales increasing by 83% and 188% year-on-year in January and February 2025, respectively [5] - The company is focusing on high-level intelligent driving technology, with the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan C" program enabling advanced features like highway navigation and valet parking, set to enhance product competitiveness [5] - The introduction of new models at competitive price points, including high-level intelligent driving features, is expected to solidify BYD's market position [5] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the acceleration of BYD's internationalization and intelligent business development, with significant capacity expansion in Hungary and Brazil, and agreements signed for factories in Indonesia and Turkey [5] - The company plans to fully switch to DM5.0 technology and launch a new generation of blade batteries, with energy density expected to increase by over 35%, enhancing vehicle range and safety [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that BYD's recent H-share placement of 1.3 billion shares at a price of HKD 335.2 per share is the largest equity refinancing project in the global automotive industry in the past decade, indicating strong confidence from global investors in the company's growth prospects [4] - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit from 2024 to 2026, with projections of CNY 400.2 billion, CNY 531.8 billion (up 8.1%), and CNY 646.7 billion (up 8.1%) respectively, leading to a corresponding PE ratio of 24.0, 18.1, and 14.9 times [4] - BYD's overseas sales have shown remarkable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 83% in January and 188% in February 2025, indicating a strong expansion in international markets [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue is projected to grow from CNY 602.3 billion in 2023 to CNY 1,016.9 billion in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.9% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from CNY 30.0 billion in 2023 to CNY 64.7 billion in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 21.6% [6] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 20.2% in 2023 to 21.8% in 2026, while the net margin is expected to rise from 5.0% to 6.4% over the same period [6]