【行情分析】： 农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/20 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/01/13 | 2160 | 2290 | 2240 | 2440 | 6 | 0 | 372 | 2750 | 2800 | 94 | -50 | | 2026/01/14 | 2160 | 2290 | 2240 | 2440 | 18 | 0 | 379 | 2750 | 2800 | 112 | -50 | | 2026/01/15 | 2180 | 2290 | 2240 | 2450 | -5 | 10 | 383 | 2750 | 2800 | 90 | -70 | | 2026/01/16 | 2180 | 2290 | 2240 | 2450 | 9 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous week and exceeding the 1.7% reported in the same period last year [1]. - Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 are expected to decline by 3% to 105 million tons, while the soybean crush volume is expected to increase to 60 million tons. Total soybean supply is expected to rise by 5% to 183.79 million tons, while demand is expected to fall by 1%. The ending inventory of soybean meal is expected to surge by 241% to 15.37 million tons [1]. - Brazil exported 1,307,357.38 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of January, with the daily average export volume increasing by 145% compared to the same period last year [1]. - China's edible vegetable oil imports in December were 670,000 tons, up 4.9% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to December were 6.94 million tons, up 3.2% year - on - year [1]. 3) Section Summaries Overnight Market Information - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest**: As of last Thursday, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous week and higher than last year's 1.7%. Mato Grosso led the progress, while Parana lagged due to cold and cloudy weather [1]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports and Crush**: In 2026, Brazilian soybean exports are expected to drop 3% to 105 million tons, while the crush volume will increase to 60 million tons. Total supply will rise 5% to 183.79 million tons, and demand will fall 1% to 168.42 million tons. The output of soybean meal is expected to increase by 2% to 47.4 million tons, and the export volume will increase by 6% to 24.7 million tons. The ending inventory of soybean meal will surge by 241% to 15.37 million tons. The output of soybean oil will increase by 3% to 11.7 million tons, exports will fall by 19% to 1.1 million tons, and domestic consumption will increase by 3% [1]. - **Brazilian January Soybean Exports**: Brazil exported 1,307,357.38 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of January, with a daily average of 118,850.67 tons, a 145% increase compared to January last year [1]. - **China's Vegetable Oil Imports**: In December, China's edible vegetable oil imports were 670,000 tons, up 4.9% year - on - year. Cumulative imports from January to December were 6.94 million tons, up 3.2% year - on - year. December soybean oil imports were 10,000 tons, up 23.6% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to December were 350,000 tons, up 22.5% year - on - year. December palm oil imports were 280,000 tons, up 13% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to December were 2.57 million tons, up 8.2% year - on - year. December rapeseed and mustard oil imports were 220,000 tons, up 2.9% year - on - year; cumulative imports from January to December were 2.13 million tons, up 13.1% year - on - year [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 13 to January 19, 2026 are provided [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: Geopolitical risks, such as Trump's tariff policies and statements regarding Greenland, along with the upcoming Cook hearing, are influencing market risk - appetite. These factors are causing increased volatility in precious metals, US stock index futures, and other financial instruments. For example, the uncertainty around the Cook hearing and Trump's actions are leading to concerns about the Fed's independence and future inflation [11][14]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities are facing various supply - demand situations. In the agricultural sector, South American soybean production is expected to be bountiful, while in the metal and energy sectors, factors like production changes, inventory levels, and geopolitical events are affecting prices. For instance, the potential release of Russian gasoline exports and the production adjustments of First Quantum Minerals in the copper market [32][52][45]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: Powell will attend the Cook hearing. Geopolitical risks and Trump's tariff policies have increased market risk aversion, driving up precious metals prices [11]. - **Investment Advice**: Short - term precious metals may experience increased volatility. With the gold - silver ratio at a low level, there are opportunities to go long [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Powell's attendance at the Cook case hearing and Trump's ambiguous statement about Greenland are increasing geopolitical risks. The potential dismissal of Cook may raise concerns about the Fed's independence [13][14]. - **Investment Advice**: During the US stock earnings season, volatility is expected to increase, and the US stock market is likely to oscillate at high levels [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Premier Li Qiang held a symposium, emphasizing high - quality development and the implementation of more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. China's GDP in Q4 2025 increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the narrowing of price declines has boosted nominal GDP growth [16][18]. - **Investment Advice**: Hold long positions in stock index futures [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: December economic data was mostly below expectations, with a pattern of weakening overall, strong supply and weak demand, and domestic demand weaker than external demand. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and the probability of continued weakening after the oscillation is relatively high [20][22]. - **Investment Advice**: Be cautious when chasing up or betting on rebounds. Consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is stable with a slight upward trend. Downstream steel mills have not responded to the coke price increase proposed by coke enterprises. Short - term spot prices are supported by downstream replenishment, but the upward momentum in the futures market is limited [24]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: In 2025, China's infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, and real estate investment decreased by 17.2%. The terminal demand for steel products remains weak, and the fundamentals do not support a significant rebound in steel prices [25][28][29]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices. Hedge inventory at high prices if there is a rebound [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: As of last Thursday, the Brazilian 25/26 soybean harvest rate was 2%. South American soybean production is expected to be abundant. Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased but remains at a historically high level [31][32]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect weak oscillations in domestic and international futures prices [33]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: Lead inventories in five major social warehouses increased. The low - inventory risk has been alleviated, and the fundamentals are weakening [34][35]. - **Investment Advice**: Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [37]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The zinc price is oscillating. Social inventories are rising, but the absolute increase is not large. Geopolitical risks need to be watched out for [38][39]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for short - term single - side trading, and do not chase short positions. Wait and see for both monthly spread and internal - external arbitrage [39]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: The second - phase project of Qingtao Energy's solid - state battery in Chengdu is progressing smoothly. The futures trading rules of lithium carbonate have been adjusted. The demand side is showing signs of strength, but the price transmission issue needs attention [40][41][42]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices after the trading volume and volatility stabilize [43]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: South Mining Group focuses on gold and copper investments. First Quantum Minerals has lowered its copper production guidance. Geopolitical risks and macro - economic uncertainties are affecting copper prices [44][45][47]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach. Look for long - position opportunities at low prices in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - **News**: The LME tin price is in a contango. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the tin futures delivery warehouses. Supply uncertainties exist, and demand is weak [49][50][51]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to December customs data, processing fees in Yunnan refineries, and the recovery of consumption [51]. 3.2.9 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - **News**: Russia may lift the gasoline export ban in February. As the Iranian situation cools down, the risk premium of oil prices is expected to decrease [52][53]. - **Investment Advice**: The short - term upward driving force for oil prices is weakening [54]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - **News**: The weekly production of domestic liquefied petroleum gas increased slightly. The external market is relatively strong, but the upward space is limited [55]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect price sideways oscillations [56]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - **News**: Asphalt refinery inventories decreased, while social inventories increased. Terminal demand is weakening, and the market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival [56]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term weak oscillations in asphalt prices [57]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - **News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices are rising. The increase in styrene is due to unexpected maintenance and export growth. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and US tariff policies [60]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices, but beware of risks such as excessive pure benzene imports and weak terminal purchasing [61]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - **News**: The demand for urea from a sample of compound fertilizer producers in Shandong decreased. Urea production is expected to increase, and inventories are decreasing at a slower pace. Policy and demand factors are influencing prices [62][63]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations in urea prices. The average price may decline in the next two weeks. Consider long - position opportunities in the 05 contract after the demand recovers [64]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - **News**: The domestic PVC powder market price is slightly weak. The export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled in April, and domestic demand is expected to weaken before the Spring Festival [65][66]. - **Investment Advice**: Be bearish on PVC in the short term [66]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - **News**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. Inventories are high, and the market is under pressure [67][68][69]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect the caustic soda market to be under pressure before the Spring Festival [69].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the La Niña phenomenon on global weather patterns and its subsequent effects on various industries, including agriculture, energy, and consumer goods, highlighting the interconnectedness of climate events and economic conditions [3][7]. Group 1: La Niña Phenomenon - La Niña is characterized by a significant cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which can disrupt global weather patterns and has been identified as a contributing factor to recent extreme weather events in China [9][10]. - The current La Niña state, which began in October 2025, is expected to last until early 2026 but may not develop into a full event, leading to complex weather impacts such as "south drought, north flood" patterns [10][11]. Group 2: Agricultural Impact - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to disrupt food supply chains, with a notable decline in crop yields in the Southern Hemisphere, including an over 11% drop in corn production and a downward adjustment in soybean yields, which will affect global agricultural prices [10][11]. - As the largest importer of soybeans, China may face increased pork and poultry prices due to rising feed costs, leading to inflationary pressures in the meat market [10]. Group 3: Energy Sector Effects - The onset of cold weather has increased coal consumption in power generation, with a reported 12% rise in daily coal usage in October 2025, while natural gas demand is projected to grow significantly due to colder winter conditions [11][13]. - The fluctuations in energy demand and supply could lead to increased prices for electricity and heating, impacting both consumers and industries reliant on stable energy costs [11][13]. Group 4: Consumer Market Trends - The La Niña phenomenon has spurred a surge in demand for winter clothing and heating appliances, with sales of down jackets and electric heating products seeing significant year-on-year increases of 46% and over 200%, respectively [32]. - Consumer preferences are shifting towards products that offer enhanced functionality and design, with a notable rise in demand for high-tech materials and products tailored for specific winter needs [33][34]. Group 5: Climate Adaptation Strategies - China is enhancing its climate response strategies, integrating weather monitoring and emergency preparedness into macroeconomic governance, with a focus on building a climate-resilient society by 2035 [22][27]. - The shift from reactive to proactive disaster management in agriculture includes advanced techniques such as smart seedling cultivation and water-saving irrigation methods to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather [28][29].

Group 1: Corn Market Overview - As of January 15, the corn selling progress in Northeast China reached 52%, which is 3% faster than the same period in 2025, with a weekly increase of 3% [1] - The average weekly price of corn nationwide as of January 16 was 2317 yuan/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 7 yuan/ton [1] - The total corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.332 million tons as of January 9, a decrease of 206,000 tons week-on-week, and significantly lower than the 4.618 million tons in the same period of 2025 [1] Group 2: Livestock and Feed Industry - As of January 15, the profit from self-bred pigs was 25.77 yuan/head, an increase of 26 yuan/head from the previous week, while the profit from purchased piglets was -100.5 yuan/head, up by 29 yuan/head [2] - The average inventory days for feed enterprises nationwide was 31.15 days, an increase of 1.05 days week-on-week, but down 6.71% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Corn Processing and Demand - The total inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises across 12 regions was 3.59 million tons as of January 14, a 1.41% increase week-on-week, yet still the lowest in nearly three years [3] - From January 8 to January 14, major processing enterprises consumed 1.3559 million tons of corn, a decrease of 2.59 million tons from the previous week, and lower than the 1.41 million tons in the same period of 2025 [3] - The profit from corn-to-ethanol processing in Heilongjiang was -742 yuan/ton, lower than -377 yuan/ton in 2025, indicating increased processing losses despite a slight rise in starch prices [3] Group 4: Future Corn Price Outlook - Most institutions predict limited corn production growth in 2025, with imports expected to be between 5 to 6 million tons, which is relatively low [4] - The current market shows reluctance to chase high spot prices, indicating uncertainty about future corn prices, as evidenced by the lower increase in spot prices compared to futures [4] - The price gap between Northeast and Southern corn is near historical highs, and factors such as policy releases and wheat auctions are expected to limit the upward potential of corn prices in the short term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The event aims to establish a platform for high-quality agricultural and marine products from Zhuanghe City to connect with high-end supermarkets, enhancing market expansion and optimizing the industry chain [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The promotional event for high-quality agricultural and marine products took place on January 16 at Wanda Plaza in Zhuanghe City [1] - The event included the unveiling of the "Wan Jia Yi Zhan" and signing ceremonies for production and sales cooperation [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - This initiative marks a new phase of regular and institutionalized connections between Zhuanghe's high-quality agricultural and marine products and high-end supermarkets [1] - It represents a significant step in the local implementation of the rural revitalization strategy [1] Group 3: Industry Characteristics - Zhuanghe City boasts prominent agricultural and marine resource endowments, adhering to an ecological priority development approach [1] - The city has established a diverse industrial system that includes high-quality fruits and vegetables, specialty aquatic products, and green grains and oils [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of ecological product regional public brands in China has transformed scattered ecological advantages into market competitive advantages, injecting new momentum into local economies and providing consumers with high-quality green products [1][2]. Group 1: Development of Ecological Product Brands - Ecological product regional public brands are registered and managed by relevant organizations within specific natural or cultural regions, allowing agricultural producers to collectively use these brands [1]. - Successful brands like "Wuyi Mountain Water" and "Gannan Navel Orange" have significantly boosted local industries and increased farmers' incomes, with "Wuyi Mountain Water" projected to achieve sales of over 2.2 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Challenges in Brand Development - There are notable challenges in the development of ecological product regional public brands, including brand homogenization, inadequate quality standards, lack of regional collaboration, and weak market promotion capabilities [2]. - Many brands lack core differentiation and unique selling points, leading to blind imitation of successful cases [2]. Group 3: Strategies for Improvement - To enhance the competitiveness of ecological product regional public brands, strategies should focus on brand positioning, standard development, collaborative innovation, and market promotion [2][3]. - A scientific and systematic brand development strategy should be established, emphasizing the unique ecological resources and cultural heritage of the region to avoid homogenized competition [3]. Group 4: Quality Assurance and Standards - There is a need to accelerate the establishment of comprehensive ecological product standards covering the entire industry chain, including environmental thresholds and eco-friendly packaging requirements [3]. - Implementing a traceability system supported by technology such as blockchain and IoT can enhance transparency and accountability in production [3]. Group 5: Collaborative Governance - A multi-stakeholder collaborative governance model involving government, enterprises, farmers, and social organizations should be developed to ensure shared benefits from brand premiums [3]. - The establishment of a value chain-based profit distribution model can ensure that both ecological protectors and producers benefit from the brand's success [3]. Group 6: Marketing Innovations - Innovative marketing strategies should be employed to enhance global brand influence, utilizing digital empowerment and immersive consumer experiences [4]. - Building independent cross-border e-commerce platforms and applying for global green certifications can facilitate international market access and brand globalization [4].

Group 1 - The core issue in the US-UK trade negotiations is the disagreement over "non-tariff barriers," particularly regarding the adoption of US standards and recognition of US certification bodies by the UK [1][4] - The US has intensified pressure on the UK to align with its standards, which could jeopardize the UK's food industry and its cooperation with the EU [1][4] - The UK government has classified food standards as a "red line" in negotiations, but there are concerns that the UK may concede on other US demands [1][4] Group 2 - The US and UK signed the "Technology Prosperity Agreement" in September, aimed at enhancing cooperation in AI, quantum computing, and civil nuclear energy, but the agreement has been paused due to ongoing trade barrier disputes [1][4] - The UK's current certification model, managed by a single non-profit body (UKAS), differs significantly from the decentralized US system, which could lead to competitive pressures and potential compromises on public service obligations [4][5] - The UK is seeking to strengthen trade relations with the EU, which may reduce the likelihood of accepting US conditions in the ongoing trade negotiations [5]

农业咨询机构AgRural1月19日表示，截至上周四（1月15日），巴西2025/26年度大豆收割率为2%，较 前一周增长1.4个百分点，并略高于去年同期的1.7%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 巴西农业咨询机构Safras预计，巴西2026年大豆出口量将达到1.05亿吨。 ...