Core Insights - The "Guangdong Goods Going Global" initiative has been incorporated into the Guangdong provincial government work report, highlighting its significance in promoting local agricultural products on a national and international scale [2][6][7] - The initiative aims to enhance consumer confidence in Guangdong's agricultural products and expand their market reach, thereby contributing to the overall economic strategy of boosting domestic demand [6][7][8] Group 1: Agricultural Product Promotion - The initiative has successfully facilitated the global distribution of nearly 6 million pots of "Chinese New Year Kumquat" from Foshan, which is a key production area for this product [10][12][22] - Guangdong's kumquat market share in the domestic market is approaching 80%, with the Chen Village area supplying over 40% of the national kumquat demand [22][23] - The "Guangdong New Year Dishes" marketing event in Shanghai featured over 30 enterprises showcasing more than 100 products, emphasizing the cultural significance of Guangdong cuisine [33][42] Group 2: Economic Impact and Collaborations - The "Guangdong Goods Going Global" initiative has led to significant economic collaborations, such as the signing of contracts worth 1.1 billion yuan during the "Zhanpin" event in Changsha [45][55] - The initiative has also resulted in the export of over 30,000 pots of butterfly orchids to Southeast Asia, showcasing the region's agricultural capabilities [60][66][72] - The "Zhongshan Xiangnong" brand made its debut in Shanghai, featuring local specialties and enhancing brand visibility through experiential marketing [76][87] Group 3: Cultural and Market Integration - The promotion of "Maoming's African Catfish" at the Sichuan New Year Goods Shopping Festival has attracted significant consumer interest, indicating a successful market penetration strategy [89][100] - The "Newhui Chenpi" brand has gained traction in the North American market, with sales exceeding 15 million yuan in 2025, reflecting the growing demand for traditional Chinese products abroad [102][110] - The "Qingyuan Silk Rice" promotional event in Shenzhen achieved over 600,000 yuan in intended orders, demonstrating effective market engagement and brand recognition [128] Group 4: Future Prospects - The ongoing "Guangdong Goods Going Global" initiative is expected to continue reshaping the global image of Guangdong agricultural products, contributing to the modernization and internationalization of the region's agriculture [170][171][182] - The integration of cultural elements into agricultural marketing is seen as a key strategy for enhancing consumer connection and expanding market reach [177][180]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Biodiesel, Cottonseed Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Soybeans, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] - **Neutral**: Most other industries including stocks, bonds, and various metals and agricultural products, with suggestions of short - term caution, waiting for opportunities, and controlling risks [1] 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: In the short term, policies will support the A - share market, but overseas liquidity tightening may cause panic. In the long run, the stock index is still expected to rise due to low - interest rates, "asset shortage" and economic bottom - building. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - **Metals**: Macro - level risk aversion is pressuring the non - ferrous metals sector. Supply concerns in Indonesia are affecting nickel and stainless steel, while other metals like zinc, tin, etc. are facing different price trends and risks [1]. - **Agricultural products**: Different agricultural products have different market situations. For example, cotton has support but lacks a driving force; sugar has a bearish consensus but cost support; grains are expected to oscillate and decline before the holiday [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical sector is affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Some products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are showing different price movements and trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro - financial** - **Stocks**: Short - term caution is advised due to A - share weakness and overseas liquidity concerns. Long - term upward trend is expected due to low - interest rates and economic recovery [1]. - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks are highlighted, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision should be monitored [1]. **Metals** - **Non - ferrous metals**: Overall under pressure from risk aversion. Nickel and stainless steel are affected by Indonesian supply issues. Zinc is expected to correct, and tin's price has fluctuated but not in a trend - reversing way. Gold and silver are in short - term oscillatory or stabilizing trends. Platinum and palladium may be supported in the short term [1]. - **Industrial metals**: Alumina is expected to oscillate near the cost line. Steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil) have limited upward space, and iron ore has a clear upper pressure [1]. **Agricultural products** - **Grains and oilseeds**: Soybeans are expected to be weak. Cotton is "supported but without a driver". Sugar has a bearish consensus but cost support. Grains are expected to decline before the holiday [1]. - **Livestock**: The pig production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Fossil fuels**: Crude oil and fuel oil may be affected by OPEC+ policies, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Asphalt has high profits but is also affected by supply and demand [1]. - **Chemicals**: PX drives the chemical sector. PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene have different supply - demand and price trends. Methanol, polyethylene, PVC, and LPG are affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1]. **Shipping** - **Container shipping**: The freight rate on European routes has peaked and declined before the holiday. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights and plan to raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans declined due to a general drop in commodity prices, with strong global supply and a stronger dollar reducing the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports [2][9] - Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing with strong yield expectations, while Argentina's western agricultural regions have improved soil moisture but require more rainfall in the coming weeks [2][9] - Domestic protein meal is running weakly, with stocking demand nearing its end and terminal transactions declining, leading to weaker spot performance [2][9] - Feed enterprise inventories are generally rising, with a notable increase nationwide, and oil mill operating rates are steadily increasing, adding supply pressure [2][9] - The strategy suggested is a double selling strategy, with a strong basis before the holiday [2][9] Group 2: Oilseeds - BMD palm oil fell, following the general decline in commodity prices, with easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran contributing to a drop in international oil prices, benefiting the oilseed market [10] - Domestic oilseed futures prices dropped significantly, with palm oil leading the decline, followed by rapeseed oil and soybean oil [10] - The market is experiencing a cooling trend, with profit-taking by bulls leading to downward pressure [10] - The soybean market is awaiting clarity on U.S. biodiesel policies and domestic soybean auctions, while palm oil is focused on inventory reduction in producing areas [10] Group 3: Live Pig - The main live pig futures contract opened high but fluctuated, closing flat at 11,220 yuan/ton [11] - The average daily price of live pigs in China was 12.48 yuan/kg, up 0.34 yuan/kg from the previous day, with regional price variations noted [11] - Limited supply from the breeding sector and increased demand in northern regions have led to rising prices [11] - The long-term trend of production capacity reduction remains unchanged, with attention on the pace of capacity reduction and potential trading opportunities after contract adjustments [11] Group 4: Eggs - The main egg futures contract opened low and slightly strengthened, closing down 0.9% at 2,975 yuan/500kg [13] - The national average egg price was 3.74 yuan/jin, down 0.17 yuan/jin from the previous day, with regional price declines noted [13] - Terminal market demand is weak, with procurement enthusiasm from downstream sectors remaining flat [13] - The market is experiencing an increase in supply, and the demand support is decreasing as stocking approaches its end, leading to a continued decline in spot prices [13] - The breeding sector's willingness to replenish stock has increased, while the willingness to eliminate has decreased, negatively impacting capacity reduction [13] Group 5: Corn - The near-month corn futures contract saw a significant reduction in positions, with a decrease of 110,000 contracts [14] - Prices in North China are stable but lack upward momentum, with some processing enterprises raising prices by 6-20 yuan/ton [14] - Farmers' willingness to sell corn is increasing as the Spring Festival approaches, but overall selling pace remains average [14] - The market is experiencing a slight decline in corn prices in sales areas, with weak downstream demand and market transactions being light [14] - Technical analysis indicates resistance at the 2,300 yuan level for the March contract, with adjustments expected in the near and far-month contracts [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The export inspection volume of US soybeans in the week ending January 29, 2026 was 1,310,559 tons, at the high - end of the estimated range, with 740,004 tons exported to China, accounting for 56.46% of the total export inspection volume. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year is 21,991,461 tons, compared with 34,192,882 tons in the same period of the previous year [1]. - The US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 was 6.9 million short tons. The production of crude soybean oil in December 2025 was 2.66 billion pounds, a 5% increase from November 2025 and a 3% increase from December 2024. The production of soybean meal in December 2025 was 5,107,259 short tons [1]. - StoneX and Celeres raised their production forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop. StoneX estimated the production at 181.62 million tons, a 7.6% increase from the previous year, and Celeres estimated it at a record 181.3 million tons, a 5% increase from the previous year [1]. - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 10% of the 2025/26 soybean harvest area, 5 percentage points higher than the previous week and 1 percentage point higher than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the weather in Rio Grande do Sul in February [1]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products in January 2026 was 1,463,069 tons, a 17.9% increase from the previous month [1]. - Indonesia exported 23.61 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in 2025, a 9.09% year - on - year increase, with a total export value of 24.42 billion US dollars [2]. 3. Summary according to relevant catalogs Overnight Market Information - US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending January 29, 2026 was 1,310,559 tons, with a market expectation of 600,000 - 1,400,000 tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 1,336,311 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year is 21,991,461 tons, compared with 34,192,882 tons in the same period of the previous year [1]. - The US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 was 6.9 million short tons (229.8 million bushels), compared with 6.62 million short tons (221 million bushels) in November 2025 and 6.53 million short tons (218 million bushels) in December 2024. The production of crude soybean oil in December 2025 was 2.66 billion pounds, a 5% increase from November 2025 and a 3% increase from December 2024. The production of soybean meal in December 2025 was 5,107,259 short tons [1]. Production Forecast - StoneX and Celeres raised their production forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop. StoneX estimated the production at 181.62 million tons, a 7.6% increase from the previous year, and Celeres estimated it at a record 181.3 million tons, a 5% increase from the previous year [1]. Harvest Progress - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 10% of the 2025/26 soybean harvest area, 5 percentage points higher than the previous week and 1 percentage point higher than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the weather in Rio Grande do Sul in February [1]. Export Data - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products in January 2026 was 1,463,069 tons, a 17.9% increase from the previous month [1]. - Indonesia exported 23.61 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in 2025, a 9.09% year - on - year increase, with a total export value of 24.42 billion US dollars [2]. Spot Price - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 27 to February 2, 2026 showed certain fluctuations [4].

Group 1 - The commodity market experienced a significant decline, with gold, silver, crude oil, and industrial metals leading the drop, following President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which triggered market sell-offs [1][4] - Gold prices fell by 5%, reaching a two-week low, while silver saw a decline of over 7% [3] - The MSCI global index dropped by 0.5%, marking a cumulative decline of 1.5% since its record high on January 27 [2] Group 2 - Crude oil prices decreased by nearly 5% from recent highs, and LME copper fell by 3% [4] - The market had anticipated a successor to Powell who would promote aggressive monetary easing, but Warsh's appointment disrupted this expectation, strengthening the dollar and making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies [4][5] - The recent sell-off in precious metals was exacerbated by the CME Group's announcement to raise margin requirements for metal futures contracts, leading to a significant increase in forced liquidations [6] Group 3 - Analysts noted that the current market conditions reflect a synchronized sell-off of precious metals and equities, indicating that investors perceive Warsh's stance as more hawkish, which could lead to higher interest rates for an extended period [5] - The energy market also faced downward pressure due to easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with reports suggesting that Iran is engaging in serious dialogue with Washington [6][7] - Concerns about high inventories and weak demand ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday are impacting copper and iron ore markets, with expectations of reduced trading activity as the holiday approaches [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, due to the collapse of precious metals and systemic risks on February 2nd, the prices of vegetable oils fell across the board. Although the short - term adjustment continues, the medium - term trend may rise after getting support because the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil will be announced at the end of March. It is recommended to close all previous long positions but not to short, and wait for a new buying point after the market stabilizes [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), affected by the abundant production pressure and the fading of macro - narrative, the US soybeans are under pressure and falling back. It is recommended to close long positions and hold short positions in the short - term, and maintain an oscillatory mindset in the medium - term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On February 2nd, precious metals collapsed, and vegetable oil prices fell across the board. For example, the main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 8092 yuan/ton, down 2.29% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 67,016 lots; the main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 9014 yuan/ton, down 2.45% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 28,714 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - The US, Iran, and many Middle - Eastern countries are releasing signals of US - Iran negotiations, causing gold and silver to fluctuate greatly, driving down international crude oil prices, which dropped by 4% at the opening of the electronic trading session today [1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, basically following the initial proposal and giving up a plan to impose penalties on imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons [1]. - Malaysia lowered its reference price for crude palm oil in February, reducing the export tariff to 9%. The reference price in February is 3,846.84 Malaysian ringgit per ton (950 US dollars), compared with 3,946.17 Malaysian ringgit per ton in January with an export tariff of 9.5% [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases of 150,000 tons per month from South America from April to July 2026 [1]. - From January 1st to 25th, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area down 15.28% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) up 0.11% month - on - month [1]. - From January 1st to 20th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 947,939 tons, an increase of 11.4% compared with 851,057 tons from December 1st to 20th [1]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced a total biodiesel allocation of 15.65 billion liters in 2026, an increase of about 30 million liters compared with 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, while the Non - PSO total allocation increased. Indonesia launched a B50 road test in December 2025, and the mandatory addition plan of B50 is expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1][2]. - As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.9939 million tons, a weekly decrease of 51,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.49%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.88% [2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Internationally, precious metals have stabilized, panic has gradually subsided, and international crude oil is still adjusting. However, the decline of US soybean oil has slowed down. In the short - term, the adjustment will continue, but in the medium - term, there may be room for an increase after getting support. The macro - narrative that previously supported the rise of vegetable oils has weakened, and the strong US dollar concept has emerged, causing precious metals to fall sharply and international crude oil to drop. The vegetable oil sector is affected, and it is recommended to close long positions and wait for a new buying point [1][2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, wait for a new buying point after the market stabilizes. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts such as Y2605, Y2609, P2605, etc. [2]. - For arbitrage trading, there is no recommendation for now [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On February 2nd, due to systemic risks, the prices of double - meal fell. For example, the main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2750 yuan/ton, down 0.61% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 67,829 lots; the main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2276 yuan/ton, down 0.48% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 1401 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - In January 2026, Brazil's soybean exports are estimated to be 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 3.73 million tons, and a 238% increase compared with the same period last year [2]. - Brazil's 2025/26 annual soybean production is expected to be 181 million tons, an increase of about 600,000 tons compared with the December 22nd forecast. As of January 22nd, the soybean harvest progress was 4.9% [2][3]. - As of December 30th, Argentina's 2025/26 annual soybean sowing was 82% complete, and the growth of the sown soybeans was in good condition. The sowing progress of second - season soybeans reached 71.9% of the intended area [3]. - As of the end of the 4th week of 2026, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,500 tons, and the contract volume decreased by 13.24% week - on - week. The domestic import - pressed rapeseed meal inventory and contract volume remained unchanged. The domestic imported soybean inventory decreased by 343,500 tons compared with the previous week [3]. - On January 13th, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1,139,605.33 tons of imported soybeans, with a 100% transaction rate and a delivery date from March 1st to April 30th, 2026 [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Internationally, the abundant production pressure and the fading of macro - narrative have put pressure on US soybeans, but the decline has narrowed. Domestically, the macro - capital sentiment has cooled, and foreign capital is gradually increasing short positions. The slow sales progress in Brazil and the pressure from the advancing harvest, combined with the high profit in spot - market crushing, may lead to a decrease in the discount. There are also rumors that the auction of imported soybeans may resume after the Spring Festival, and the customs may speed up the inspection process, which has prompted some long - position holders to take profits and put pressure on the market. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market trading pace has slowed down [2][3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Close long positions in double - meal and hold short positions in the short - term. Do not expect a large - scale decline during the Spring Festival holiday, and maintain an oscillatory mindset in the medium - term. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts such as M2605, M2607, RM2605, etc. [3][4]. - For arbitrage trading, there is no recommendation for now [4].

Group 1: Corn Market - The corn closing price was 2261 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.7%. The sentiment in the market is bearish as pre-holiday stockpiling by enterprises is nearing completion, while grassroots grain selling sentiment is recovering [4][15]. - Weather conditions this week are noteworthy, with warming forecasts in Northeast China. This may accelerate the sale of grain lacking standard storage conditions, but the overall low temperatures may only lead to a temporary drop in spot prices. Post-holiday, weather-related risk factors will gain more attention [4][15]. - Overall inventory in Northeast China remains at historical lows, with no significant rebound expected. Without additional fundamental information, market focus is shifting towards post-holiday speculative sentiment [5][16]. - The corn main contract is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, observing support around 2250 and resistance at 2330 [6][17]. Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - Overnight CBOT soybeans followed the decline in commodity prices, balancing between reduced production expectations due to drought in Argentina and the realization of abundant harvests in Brazil. As of January 31, Brazil's soybean harvest progress was at 11.4%, with Mato Grosso state at 33.2%, advancing by 13.5 percentage points weekly [6][17]. - The soybean meal fundamentals show no marginal changes, following the weakness in overseas markets. Concerns about potential tightness in future soybean supply and uncertainties in reserve release schedules have somewhat elevated price resilience [6][17]. - The current shipping schedule for Brazilian soybeans is favorable for crushing profits, which may encourage commercial oil mills to actively purchase. However, if the pressure from South American arrivals materializes, there remains a risk of a decline in meal prices impacting crushing margins [6][17]. Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price for eggs in major production areas remains stable, with an average price of approximately 3.33 yuan/jin in Hebei, unchanged from the previous day. Short-term demand for pre-holiday stockpiling is the main support, but demand is expected to weaken post-holiday, indicating a potential shift to a bearish pricing rhythm [8][19]. - In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the actual progress of capacity reduction. Historically, the year 2025 may be a loss year, potentially leading to improvements in supply-demand relationships, while the market outlook for 2026 appears positive, albeit with risks of phase-based expectation overshooting [8][19]. Group 4: Pork Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas was approximately 12.56 yuan/kg. After a continuous decline, the market has seen a rebound. Despite the proximity to the Spring Festival, which may cause fluctuations, the near-term futures contracts have already priced in expectations of a decline [10][21]. - The key observation point for the 2026 market will be the depth and sustainability of capacity reduction. Major enterprises are increasingly using futures for risk management, which may alter traditional understandings of the "pig cycle" price fluctuation patterns [10][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, leading to a rebound in risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The short - term economic downward pressure has eased, and the market risk preference has recovered. The short - term dollar is expected to continue to rise [15]. - Gold prices continued to decline on Monday, and silver hit the daily limit down. The market is still digesting the negative impact of Wash being nominated as the Fed Chairman. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals may end, but it is difficult to rise rapidly, and it is expected to enter a volatile stage [13]. - A - shares had a sharp adjustment, and the Shanghai Composite Index barely held above 4000 points. The weakening of the "inflation up, bulk prices up, economic recovery" logic led to a sharp decline in related sectors and dragged down the stock market. In the short term, the stock index lacks the momentum to rise and still needs to oscillate to digest the capital pressure [23]. - For commodities, different varieties have different trends. For example, palm oil exports increased, and the inventory decreased; iron ore supply pressure is high, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly; coal prices are expected to be strong in February; and the prices of some energy - chemical products such as crude oil and asphalt are affected by geopolitical and market factors [37][34][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, the highest since August 2022, with an expected 48.5 and a previous value of 47.9. Fed Bostic expects no rate cuts in 2026. Gold prices continued to decline on Monday, and silver hit the daily limit down. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals may end, but it is difficult to rise rapidly, and it is expected to enter a volatile stage. It is recommended to wait for the market volatility to decline, and the adjustment pressure of silver is greater than that of gold, and the gold - silver ratio will rise [11][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump called on Republicans to take control of the election process from the states. The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was the highest since February 2022, which led to a rebound in risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The short - term dollar is expected to continue to rise [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations. Oracle launched a $25 billion bond issuance. The US government shutdown postponed the release of the January employment report. It is expected that the US stock market will maintain high - level volatility [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market had a sharp adjustment, and the Shanghai Composite Index barely held above 4000 points. The weakening of the "inflation up, bulk prices up, economic recovery" logic led to a sharp decline in related sectors and dragged down the stock market. In the short term, the stock index lacks the momentum to rise and still needs to oscillate to digest the capital pressure [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan on the day. The performance of treasury bond futures was slightly weak. It is recommended to moderately pay attention to the opportunity of shorting T [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - 276 steel enterprises completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. The 2 - month auto market will enter a stage of adjustment. Steel prices followed the decline of peripheral metals. The inventory of building materials has increased significantly, and the demand has weakened seasonally. It is recommended to treat steel prices with an oscillatory mindset, and the short - term decline space is expected to be limited [27][30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On February 2, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. With the approach of the festival, the supply has shrunk, and some terminal enterprises still have pre - holiday replenishment needs, which support the coal price to a certain extent. It is expected that the coal price will be strong in February, and attention should be paid to the temperature and new energy power generation in February [32]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The construction of the port and railway in Baffin Island was approved to support the expansion plan of Mary River Mine. The supply of iron ore is at a high level, and the demand is temporarily static. It is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate weakly [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of January 30, 2026, the domestic palm oil inventory was 701,400 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.51%. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 31 increased by 17.93% month - on - month. After the macro - sentiment stabilizes, long positions can be continued to be arranged [36][37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slightly faster than that of the same period last year. The domestic soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased. It is expected that the domestic and foreign futures prices will maintain a weak - oscillatory trend [38][40]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The copper concentrate processing fee is at a low level, and the EU is considering new sanctions on Russian copper. The copper price has dropped significantly due to the decline of precious metals. In the short term, the volatility is still relatively large. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term and wait - and - see for arbitrage [41][42][44]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the social inventory will increase seasonally. It is recommended to wait - and - see in the short - term and pay attention to the medium - term long - position opportunity [45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price has dropped significantly. The domestic inventory has increased seasonally. It is recommended to wait - and - see temporarily and manage positions well [48][49]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin is expected to ease, but the supply concentration is high. The short - term tin price is expected to be weak and oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the supply recovery expectation and the improvement of consumption [51][52]. 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran said it was willing to close or suspend its nuclear program. Trump reached a trade agreement with India. The oil price has dropped significantly. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the Iranian situation [53][55]. 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries has decreased, and the social inventory has increased. The short - term asphalt price is under pressure, and the subsequent trend depends on whether there are sudden changes in the geopolitical situation [57]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Iran hopes to avoid war with the US through diplomatic efforts. It is recommended to short the methanol 05 contract, with a stop - profit point of 2183 yuan/ton, and aggressive investors can lower the stop - profit to the previous box area of 2120 - 2150 yuan/ton [58][60]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has changed. The short - term styrene market has large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait - and - see and reduce the risk exposure before the Spring Festival [61][63]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The high - supply, weak - demand, and high - inventory situation has not changed. The short - term rebound height of caustic soda is expected to be limited, and the disk may be under pressure again [64][65]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has risen, but the transaction is not good. The PVC market is under supply pressure, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The current rise is mainly due to policy expectations, and the upward rebound height should not be overly optimistic, but it may still be relatively strong in the short - term under the catalysis of sentiment [66][67].

农产品早报 2026-02-03 五矿期货农产品早报 目前原糖价格已经跌破巴西乙醇折算价的支撑，在今年 4 月后巴西新榨季生产存在着下调甘蔗制糖比例 的可能性。等待 2 月北半球开始收榨，增产利空基本兑现以后，国际糖价可能会迎来一波反弹。国内当 前进口糖源供应逐步减少，随着糖价跌至低位水平，短线往下空间或有限，暂时观望。 棉花 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 周一郑州白糖期货价格小幅下跌，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5207 元/吨，较上个交易日下跌 41 元/吨，或 0.78%。现货方面，广西制糖集团报价 5270-5350 元/吨，较上个交易日下跌 20 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 StoneX 预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖市场将维持供应过剩，预估过剩量为 290 万吨。印度全国糖业合作联 盟联合会(NFCSF)发布数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 1 月 3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In the long - term, the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. For stocks, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. For bonds, the market is expected to continue in a volatile pattern. For precious metals, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. For various industrial products and agricultural products, specific analysis should be based on their respective supply - demand situations, cost factors, and market sentiment [4][8][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - finance 1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin level and the daily limit for silver deferred contracts. Dozens of varieties such as Shanghai silver, palladium, and platinum hit the daily limit down. Tesla plans to mass - produce dry electrode technology and will unveil its third - generation humanoid robot, with an expected annual production of one million units. Geely's sales in January exceeded BYD's, with overseas sales increasing by 121.2% and 51.47% respectively year - on - year. The DRAM contract price for OEMs is around $10 - 20 per GB, much lower than the spot price [2]. - **Strategy View**: In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the market rhythm, and the strategy should be to buy on dips [4]. 1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes in closing prices. China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, and the manufacturing industry maintained an expansion trend. Citigroup Research warned that the gold valuation has reached an extreme level [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic recovery foundation is not yet solid, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, and the bond market is expected to continue in a volatile pattern [8]. 1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 3.61%, and Shanghai silver fell 17.04%. On Monday, gold and silver were heavily sold, hitting the daily limit down. The US manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was significantly higher than expected, indicating a recovery in the industry [9]. - **Strategy View**: The sharp reversal of the macro - market expectation led to a large - scale exit of long positions. The strong recovery of the US manufacturing industry may make the Fed more cautious about interest rate cuts, suppressing precious metal prices. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [11]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals 2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: The US dollar index continued to rise, and non - ferrous metals declined. LME copper inventories decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventories increased slightly [13]. - **Strategy View**: Trump's plan to start a strategic key mineral reserve program and the better - than - expected manufacturing PMI in the US and the eurozone have eased the sentiment. The copper supply is expected to be stable, and the copper price is expected to stabilize [14]. 2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The sharp decline in silver prices spread pessimism, and the aluminum price dropped significantly. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continued to accumulate, and the demand was weak [15]. - **Strategy View**: Although the domestic demand is weak, the LME aluminum inventory is relatively low, and the aluminum price has strong support. If the precious metal volatility decreases and the domestic inventory situation is better than the seasonal average, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize [16]. 2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell on Monday. The LME zinc inventory accumulation slowed down, and the overseas natural gas price increase raised concerns about the cost of European smelters [17]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price is currently following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. The subsequent trading focus may return to the industrial logic [18]. 2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell on Monday. The lead ore and recycled waste inventories increased, and the downstream battery enterprise operating rate decreased slightly [19]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial situation of lead is weak. The better - than - expected US manufacturing PMI has eased the panic to some extent [20]. 2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 2, the nickel price dropped significantly. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [21]. - **Strategy View**: The nickel price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The market may return to real - world trading, and the increase in refined nickel production and inventory will put pressure on the price [22]. 2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: On February 2, the tin price fell and hit the daily limit down. The supply increase was limited, and the demand was weak [23]. - **Strategy View**: The tin market supply - demand is marginally loose, and the inventory is rising. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [23]. 2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate price dropped significantly. The contract total position reached a new low since late October [24]. - **Strategy View**: The buying sentiment in the commodity market has cooled significantly. Although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, the market atmosphere has a greater impact. It is recommended to be cautious and observe or try with a light position [24]. 2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose slightly on February 2. The Guinea ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the supply - side policy, Guinea ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [26]. 2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price dropped on Monday. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the inventory turnover slowed down [27]. - **Strategy View**: The cost support of the industrial chain is still strong, and the price has strong support below. The bullish view remains unchanged [28]. 2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The casting aluminum alloy price dropped significantly on February 2. The cost price dropped significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly [30]. - **Strategy View**: Although the demand is average, the price has support in the short - term due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [31]. 3. Black Building Materials 3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The steel price continued to fluctuate at the bottom. The螺纹 steel production remained high, and the demand decreased seasonally. The hot - rolled coil demand was relatively stable, and the inventory continued to decline slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and policy adjustments [34]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price dropped on Monday. The overseas iron ore shipments increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [35]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas shipments are entering the off - season, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The price has support below and is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mills' replenishment and iron - making production rhythm [36]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The coking coal and coke prices fluctuated on February 2. The coking coal supply is gradually becoming looser, and the downstream inventory replenishment willingness is low [37]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and the high - volatility risk [41]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price remained stable, and the soda ash price dropped slightly. The glass inventory decreased slightly, and the soda ash inventory increased slightly [42][44]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, and the soda ash market is expected to be weakly stable and fluctuate [43][46]. 3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices dropped slightly on February 2. The manganese silicon supply is loose, and the ferrosilicon supply - demand is basically balanced [47]. - **Strategy View**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the black sector's direction and cost factors. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation and "dual - carbon" policy [49]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price dropped slightly, and the polysilicon price dropped slightly. The industrial silicon supply decreased, and the polysilicon demand decreased [50][52]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon supply - demand is expected to improve in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The polysilicon supply is expected to shrink in the first quarter, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure [51][53]. 4. Energy and Chemicals 4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities dropped significantly, and the rubber market was affected by both long and short factors. The tire enterprise operating rate and the natural rubber inventory had different changes [55][56]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and strictly control risks. The strategy of buying NR and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [58]. 4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price dropped significantly, and the refined oil prices also dropped. The European refined oil inventory had different changes [59]. - **Strategy View**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [60]. 4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price dropped, and the MTO profit increased [61]. - **Strategy View**: The current methanol price has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upward space [62]. 4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price dropped slightly, and the overall basis was - 17 yuan/ton [63]. - **Strategy View**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and the fundamentals are expected to be bearish. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. 4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene price dropped, and the styrene price had different trends in spot and futures. The supply and demand sides had different changes [65]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene non - integrated profit has been significantly repaired. It is recommended to gradually take profits [66]. 4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price dropped, the production was at a high level, and the downstream demand was weak. The export was the only short - term support [67]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. The short - term price is supported by electricity price expectations and export rush. Attention should be paid to capacity and operating rate changes [68]. 4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price dropped, the supply load was high, and the demand load decreased. The port inventory continued to accumulate [69]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand situation needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. The valuation is expected to be compressed in the medium - term [70]. 4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price dropped, the supply was in high - maintenance, and the demand decreased due to the off - season. The inventory increased during the Spring Festival [71]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA processing fee has a high expected component, and there is a risk of correction in the short - term. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to buying on dips [73]. 4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price dropped, the load was high, and the downstream PTA was in maintenance. The inventory was expected to accumulate before the maintenance season [74]. - **Strategy View**: The mid - term pattern is good. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips following the crude oil price [75]. 4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price dropped, the upstream operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. The inventory decreased [76]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline. The supply support has returned, and the demand is in the off - season [77]. 4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price dropped, the upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate decreased slightly. The inventory decreased [78]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction. The supply - surplus pattern is expected to change in the first quarter of next year, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [80]. 5. Agricultural Products 5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price generally rose, but the short - term price is expected to stabilize [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price is under pressure, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. The long - term price has support, and attention should be paid to the downside support after the decline [83]. 5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly declined, and it is expected to be stable in the short - term [84]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price may fluctuate weakly, and the long - term price may correct the valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies [85]. 5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price dropped, and the domestic soybean inventory decreased. The USDA report data was slightly bearish, but the short - term fundamentals are improving [86][87]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out [88]. 5.4 Oils - **Market Information**: The oil futures price dropped, the Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the domestic oil inventory decreased slightly. The short - term price was affected by the decline of commodities [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: The long - term oil price may have bottomed out. It is recommended to wait for a correction and then try to buy [90]. 5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar futures price dropped slightly, and the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus. The Indian sugar production increased, and the domestic sugar import increased [91]. - **Strategy View**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [93]. 5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton futures price dropped, the spinning mill operating rate decreased, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased slightly. The US cotton export decreased [94][95]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term cotton price fluctuates widely, and the long - term price has room to rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips before the Spring Festival [96].