Group 1: Economic Performance - In April, the sales revenue of enterprises in China increased by 4.3% year-on-year, continuing the steady growth trend since the fourth quarter of last year, driven by a series of existing and incremental policies [1] - The eastern region, particularly economic powerhouses like Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Beijing, saw sales revenue growth of 4.8%, with Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Beijing growing by 7.3%, 6.6%, and 5.4% respectively, significantly above the national average [1] Group 2: Industry Growth - In April, industrial enterprises' sales revenue grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with manufacturing sales revenue increasing by 4.4%, primarily driven by the "two new" policies [2] - Specific sectors such as electrical machinery, computer manufacturing, and instrumentation saw sales revenue growth of 12.8%, 15.7%, and 15.9% respectively [2] - High-tech industries and core digital economy sectors reported sales revenue growth of 15.3% and 13.4% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Consumer Policies and Trends - The "old-for-new" consumption promotion policies have positively impacted consumer demand and released residents' consumption potential, with a focus on boosting consumer confidence [3] - As of April 27, the "old-for-new" program led to significant sales, including 281.4 million vehicles and 49.416 million home appliances, contributing over 720 billion yuan to sales [2] Group 4: Foreign Trade and Domestic Sales - In response to uncertainties in international trade, the government has implemented policies to help foreign trade enterprises expand into domestic sales, with domestic sales for companies engaged in exports to the U.S. increasing by 4.7% year-on-year [4] - Among 31 manufacturing categories, 21 saw an increase in the proportion of domestic sales compared to the previous year, with notable increases in sectors like leather products and footwear [4] Group 5: Trade Statistics - In the first four months of the year, China's total goods trade value reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with exports growing by 7.5% and imports declining by 4.2% [5] - In April, the total goods trade value was 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports increasing by 9.3% and imports by 0.8% [5]

【5 月 14 日国内期市黑色金属板块全线飘红】截止目前，铁矿石主力上涨 1.88%，报 733.00 元/吨。螺 纹钢主力上涨 0.84%，报 3115.00 元/吨。热卷主力上涨 0.84%，报 3253.00 元/吨。不锈钢主力上涨 1.16%，报 13080.00 元/吨。5 月 13 日黑色金属仓单数据显示，螺纹钢仓库期货仓单 148997 吨，环比上 个减少 19706 吨。铁矿石期货仓单 3200 手，环比上个持平。不锈钢仓库期货仓单 159232 吨，环比上个 减少 1012 吨。热轧卷板期货仓单 281489 吨，环比上个减少 9957 吨。锰硅期货仓单 121174 张，环比上 个减少 136 张。硅铁期货仓单 19249 张，环比上个减少 28 张。截止 5 月 13 日，据商品期货基差数据显 示，螺纹钢、热卷、不锈钢品种合约出现"期现倒挂"现象。螺纹钢现货价格 3164.78 元，期货价格 3089 元，基差 75 元，基差率 2.37%。线材现货价格 3370 元，期货价格 3433 元，基差-63 元，基差 率-1.87%。热轧卷板现货价格 3296.67 元，期货价格 3226 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅震荡，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3079 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 3 元/吨，跌幅为 0.1%，持仓减少 2.93 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | 钢材 | 格下跌 20 元/吨至 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3160 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.78 万吨。中 | 低位整理 | | | 美经贸谈判达成重要共识，对市场情绪形成一定提振。不过目前螺纹现货需求逐步有弱，钢厂出口接单难 | | | | 度也加大，市场供需基本面有所承压。预计短期螺纹盘面仍将低位整理运行。 | | | | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所下跌，收于 714.5 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌 4 元/吨，跌幅为 0.56%，成交 43 万手，增仓 1 万手。 港口现货价格有所下跌，日照港 PB 粉 765 元/吨下 | | | 铁矿石 | 跌 4 元/吨，卡 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are subject to wide - range fluctuations due to macro - sentiment disturbances [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations affected by macro - sentiment [2][11]. - Coke is facing a first - round price cut and will fluctuate widely, while coking coal will fluctuate widely [2][14]. - Steam coal will show a weakening trend with increased coal mine inventory [2][18]. - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly with the boost of macro - expectations [2][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the futures contract 12509 was 714.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (- 0.56%); the position increased by 9,557 to 714,025 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices remained unchanged. The basis for 12505 against Super Special decreased by 17 yuan/ton, and the 12509 - 12601 spread decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement indicates that both sides will take measures to modify and cancel tariffs and suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,079 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.88%), with a trading volume of 1,930,069 hands and a position decrease of 29,285 hands. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,215 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.78%), with a trading volume of 660,865 hands and a position decrease of 29,461 hands. Spot prices in different regions showed various changes. The basis for RB2510 increased by 3 yuan/ton, and for HC2510 decreased by 15 yuan/ton [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 8, steel production data showed a decrease in rebar production by 9.85 tons and an increase in hot - rolled coil production by 1.08 tons. Total inventory increased for both, and apparent demand decreased. The US promised to cancel 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of them, with China taking corresponding measures [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon - iron remained unchanged, while silicon - manganese increased by 50 yuan/ton, and manganese ore increased by 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. The basis and spreads showed different changes [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Some silicon - manganese enterprises in Chongqing, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia carried out production cuts or maintenance. Some steel mills finalized procurement prices and quantities [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes, and some basis and spreads also changed [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for coking coal in northern ports and CCI metallurgical coal index data. On May 13, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long - positions increased by 13,695 hands and short - positions increased by 18,191 hands; for the coke J2509 contract, long - positions increased by 74 hands and short - positions increased by 619 hands [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Steam Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The previous trading day's data of steam coal ZC2506 showed an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a high of 931.6 yuan/ton, a low of 840 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 18 hands and a position of 0 hands [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for southern port's foreign - trade steam coal and domestic production areas. On May 13, both long - and short - positions of the ZC2506 contract decreased by 0 hands [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: For different contracts of logs, there were changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions showed different trends, and basis and spreads also changed [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement indicates that both sides will take measures to modify and cancel tariffs and suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [24].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on May 14, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to help investors understand the market situation through the analysis of basis, inter - period spread, and inter - variety spread. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: On May 13, 2025, the basis was - 182.4 yuan/ton, showing a continuous negative value trend in recent days [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities** - **Basis**: The basis data of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented, with the basis of INE crude oil and fuel oil fluctuating in recent days [6]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: The basis data of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc. are provided, with significant fluctuations in the basis of natural rubber in recent days [7]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are given, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber being - 1045 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are presented, with the LLDPE - PVC spread being 2309 yuan/ton on May 13, 2025 [7]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, with the basis of rebar showing an upward trend in recent days [12]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 69.0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. are presented, with the rebar/iron ore ratio being 4.31 on May 13, 2025 [12]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market** - **Basis**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided, with significant fluctuations in the basis of copper in recent days [20]. - **Import and Export Data**: The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss of various non - ferrous metals are presented, with all non - ferrous metals showing import losses except lead [26]. - **London Market**: The LME basis, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss data of non - ferrous metals are presented [26]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are provided, with the basis of soybeans showing a negative value in recent days [36]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are given, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans being 48 yuan/ton [36]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. are presented, with the soybean/corn ratio being 1.77 on May 13, 2025 [34]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided, with the basis of all indices showing positive values on May 13, 2025 [44]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given, such as the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 being - 40.8 [44].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend, with 12 products experiencing price increases, 32 seeing declines, and 6 remaining stable in early May 2025 compared to late April 2025 [2]. Price Changes Summary 1. Black Metals - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) decreased by 6.3 yuan to 3187.0 yuan per ton, a drop of 0.2% - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) fell by 3.4 yuan to 3354.9 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.1% - Seamless steel pipe (219*6, 20) increased by 7.7 yuan to 4151.3 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.2% [4]. 2. Non-ferrous Metals - Electrolytic copper (1) rose by 639.3 yuan to 78320.0 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.8% - Aluminum ingot (A00) decreased by 287.9 yuan to 19665.0 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.4% - Lead ingot (1) fell by 206.2 yuan to 16593.8 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.2% [4]. 3. Chemical Products - Sulfuric acid (98%) dropped by 35.9 yuan to 625.5 yuan per ton, a decline of 5.4% - Caustic soda (liquid, 32%) decreased by 14.0 yuan to 853.1 yuan per ton, a drop of 1.6% - Polypropylene (fiber grade) fell by 49.8 yuan to 7198.3 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.7% [4]. 4. Oil and Gas - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased by 10.1 yuan to 4450.3 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.2% - Gasoline (95 National VI) fell by 149.7 yuan to 8391.1 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.8% - Diesel (0 National VI) dropped by 104.9 yuan to 6913.3 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.5% [4]. 5. Coal - Anthracite (washed lump) increased by 5.0 yuan to 965.0 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.5% - Common mixed coal (4500 kcal) decreased by 13.8 yuan to 506.8 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.7% - Shanxi premium mixed coal (5500 kcal) fell by 14.9 yuan to 651.4 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.2% [4]. 6. Agricultural Products - Corn (yellow corn, second grade) rose by 87.9 yuan to 2303.2 yuan per ton, an increase of 4.0% - Soybeans (yellow soybeans) increased by 1.0 yuan to 4243.4 yuan per ton, remaining stable - Peanut (oil peanuts) rose by 14.3 yuan to 7566.7 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.2% [5]. 7. Agricultural Production Materials - Urea (medium and small particles) increased by 66.8 yuan to 1917.9 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.6% - Compound fertilizer (sulfur potassium compound fertilizer) remained stable at 3201.1 yuan per ton [5]. 8. Forest Products - Natural rubber (standard rubber SCRWF) rose by 70.8 yuan to 14527.1 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.5% - Pulp (imported needle pulp) decreased by 196.0 yuan to 5960.9 yuan per ton, a decline of 3.2% [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while the CPI in April showed a month-on-month increase driven by gold, travel, and imported beef prices, the year-on-year figure remains negative for the third consecutive month, highlighting persistent demand weakness [3][4][8]. - The April CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, outperforming the seasonal average of -0.1% over the past decade, primarily due to a 10.1% rise in gold jewelry prices, a 3.9% increase in beef prices, and a 3.1% rise in travel-related costs [4][10]. - The year-on-year CPI remained at -0.1% in April, with several price categories showing weakness, including a continued decline in pork prices and stagnant or falling prices in various consumer goods and services [4][6]. Group 2 - The PPI in April saw a year-on-year decline from -2.5% to -2.7%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline [5][6]. - A total of 22 out of 30 categories in the PPI showed no month-on-month growth, indicating widespread price weakness across industries [6][7]. - The article notes that the decline in international oil prices, influenced by tariffs and global economic conditions, has led to decreased prices in domestic oil and gas extraction and processing [7]. Group 3 - The article emphasizes that improving domestic demand is crucial for restoring price levels, as the central bank continues to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery through monetary policy [9][8]. - The transition to a demand-driven growth model is highlighted as essential, with a call for coordinated fiscal, monetary, and social policies to expand effective demand, particularly in consumption [9][8].

Core Logic - The supply-demand balance of commodities is fundamental, with cost valuation serving as a strong support when there is a clear oversupply, while it becomes a mere reference when there is a significant shortage [1] - The analysis focuses on representative varieties from non-ferrous metals, black metals, and energy chemicals, assessing their performance over the next 3-5 years based on the surplus ratio [2][4] Historical & Future Analysis - Over the past 3-10 years, only copper has consistently shown a shortage, with projections indicating that copper and zinc will be in short supply by 2025, particularly copper [4] - For the next 3-5 years, copper remains the best long-term investment, followed by aluminum and zinc [4] Cost Valuation Overview - The article provides a detailed table of historical and projected balance estimates for various metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, nickel, iron ore, and crude oil, indicating whether cost valuation is considered [6] - The cash cost structure of copper mining is closely linked to crude oil prices, with significant components including materials, labor, fuel, and electricity [11][19] Copper Market Insights - The cash cost of copper mining is expected to rise slightly, influenced by oil price fluctuations and mining efficiency [15][21] - The current supply of copper cannot meet the demand for electrolytic copper, suggesting that copper prices will not enter a cost-based pricing phase unless a global recession occurs [20][22] Aluminum Market Outlook - The aluminum market is expected to experience an expanding supply-demand gap, with domestic production capacity constraints and increasing demand driven by electrification [24][30] Lead-Zinc Market Dynamics - The cash costs of lead-zinc mining are driven by GDP growth and energy prices, with labor and consumables being significant cost components [31][32] - The cash cost structure indicates that zinc prices are closely aligned with cash costs, providing a solid support level [37][42] Tin Market Analysis - The cost structure of tin mining is complex, with mining costs, energy costs, and compliance costs significantly impacting overall expenses [44][50] - The global tin mining cost center is expected to rise due to declining ore grades and increasing energy and labor costs [47][51] Nickel Market Projections - Nickel is projected to remain in a surplus state for the next few years, with cost valuation becoming more significant post-2026 as production growth slows [52][57] Iron Ore and Crude Oil Cost Structures - The cost structure of iron ore mining varies significantly by region, with Australian and Brazilian operations generally having lower costs compared to Chinese operations [61][66] - Crude oil extraction costs are influenced by geological conditions and regional policies, with significant variations across different countries [78][80]

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（5.13） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3079 27 0.88% | 3240 | 161 | | 热卷 | 3215 25 0.78% | 3240 | 25 | | 铁矿 | 714.5 7.5 1.06% | 767 | 52.5 | | 焦煤 | 870.5 -7.5 -0.85% | 1010 | 139.5 | | 焦炭 | 1447 -10 -0.69% | 1409 | -38 | | | 市场概况 | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货有涨有跌。螺纹收于3079元/吨，上涨0.88%；热卷主力 | | | | | 合约收于3215元/吨，上涨0.78%；铁矿今日主力合约收于714.5元/吨；双焦 | | | | | 今天小幅下跌。 | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | 需求方面，上周Mysteel调研247家钢厂盈利率为58.87%，环比上周增加 | | | | | 2.59%;日均铁水产量为245.64万吨，环比上周增加0.2 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/12 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/09 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/08 | -166.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/07 | -161.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/06 | -153.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路 ...