Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a mixed sentiment with a slight recovery in risk scores, driven by policy support and economic recovery expectations, but still facing global uncertainties and internal structural divergences [2][5]. Group 1: Market Risk Assessment - The risk score for the CSI 300 index increased to 45.39 from 42.04, indicating a moderate low-risk level [2]. - The valuation of the CSI 300 rose to 46.58 from 43.53, reflecting a reassessment of economic recovery and corporate profit expectations [2]. - There is significant valuation divergence among industries, with sectors like steel and real estate above the historical 60th percentile, while others like agriculture and non-bank financials are below the 10th percentile [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Expectations - Market sentiment improved to 42.89 from 34.07, indicating increased trading activity but remaining in a cautious zone [3]. - The public fund issuance score rebounded to a historical medium level, suggesting a recovery in retail fund inflows [3]. - Market expectations declined to 48.00 from 55.00, with analysts noting that economic growth still requires policy support and expressing concerns over the impact of U.S. tariff policies on domestic manufacturing investment [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Data Insights - May economic data showed a decline in supply and a divergence in demand, with retail sales growth reaching a year-to-date high of 6.4%, supported by old-for-new subsidies [9]. - Fixed asset investment, infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing investment all saw declines, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 3.7%, 10.4%, -10.7%, and 8.5% [9]. - The industrial output growth rate slowed to 5.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from April, indicating a cooling in industrial activity [9]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Risk Points - The black commodity sector's risk score is at 38.8, categorized as low risk, with stable production and declining demand entering the off-season [12]. - Potential risks for the real estate sector include recovery exceeding expectations and geopolitical tensions affecting market stability [14][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has weakened again. There is no bright spot in the off - season demand, and there is no strong rebound driver for the black sector. The basis of steel is in a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there is still room for the basis to shrink. The off - season may see the basis repaired through weaker spot prices [4]. - The coking coal spot has continued to recover, and the futures have rebounded again. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke have improved, but the futures have been under pressure due to factors such as the alleviation of geopolitical conflicts and the previous over - pricing of the rebound expectations. The industry clients are advised to actively participate in selling hedging [5][6]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon prices have strengthened slightly due to environmental protection disturbances in Wuhai. The supply and demand of silicon - iron are acceptable in the short term, while the supply of manganese - silicon has increased, and the price is under pressure [6]. - The iron ore spot price has continued to fall to narrow the basis. The iron ore shipment is gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight destocking to a slight stocking stage. It is recommended to focus on short - selling steel unilaterally and for the industry clients to actively participate in selling hedging for coking coal and coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On June 25, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2978 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan, - 0.30%), HC2601 at 3099 yuan/ton (- 6 yuan, - 0.19%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2976 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan, - 0.33%), HC2510 at 3098 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan, - 0.26%), etc. The cross - month spreads, spreads/price ratios/profits also had corresponding changes [2]. Spot Market - **Steel**: The spot prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou螺纹 were 3050 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), 3130 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), and 3140 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively on June 25. The prices of Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou热卷 were 3170 yuan/ton (unchanged), 3190 yuan/ton, and 3150 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts for coking coal, the downstream replenished the raw materials appropriately. The port trade quasi - first - grade coke was quoted at 1140 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), and the coking coal price index was 937.1 (+ 0.6). The Mongolian coal market had more inquiries, and the border trade enterprises had a strong willingness to hold prices [5]. Market Analysis - **Steel**: The steel market is in the off - season, with weak demand and no strong rebound driver. The basis is in a futures - discount - to - spot structure, and there is a possibility of the basis being repaired through weaker spot prices [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal spot is improving, and the futures have rebounded. However, the futures may be under pressure due to factors such as the potential increase in supply and the previous over - pricing of the rebound expectations. The industry clients are advised to actively participate in selling hedging [5][6]. - **Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon**: The prices have strengthened slightly due to environmental protection disturbances in Wuhai. The short - term supply and demand of silicon - iron are acceptable, while the supply of manganese - silicon has increased, and the price is under pressure [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot price has continued to fall to narrow the basis. The shipment is increasing, and the port inventory has shifted to a slight stocking stage. It is recommended to focus on short - selling steel unilaterally [6].

2025年06月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 26 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | 703.0 | ...

7000 1000 6000 800 5000 600 4000 400 3000 2000 1000 -200 | 螺纹基差(右轴) = 价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海 - 期货收盘价(活跃合约):螺纹钢 8000 800 600 6000 400 200 2000 -200 | 2025/06/25 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2601 | HC2601 | < 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 6月24日 25 | 2977.00 | 3099.00 | 676. 50 | 1399. ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡回落，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2977 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 下跌 15 元/吨，跌幅 0.6%，持仓增加 1.09 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | | 格下跌 10 元/吨至 2910 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3070 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.32 | | | | 万吨。近日北方高温南方降雨影响需求，螺纹需求整体处于低位。不过钢厂在转产其他品种以及钢坯出口 | | | | 加大的情况下，螺纹产量也处于低位。现阶段市场供需呈现双弱格局，预计短期螺纹盘面仍低位整理为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格窄幅震荡运行，收于 703 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下 | 震荡 | | | 跌 3 元/吨，跌幅为 0.4%，成交 29 万手，减仓 0.4 万手。港口现货价格有所下跌， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/24 | -185.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/23 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/20 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/19 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/18 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the short - term market will mainly be in low - level consolidation. The iron ore, coking coal, and coke markets are expected to show a volatile trend in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to operate in a low - level volatile manner in the short term [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research View - **Steel**: The rebar futures market showed a strong - side volatile trend yesterday. The spot price was basically stable, and the trading volume increased. The inventory change was not significant, and the steel billet exports increased significantly, alleviating the domestic supply pressure. It is expected to be in low - level consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price of iron ore futures rose yesterday. The port spot price declined. The global iron ore shipments increased slightly, the demand side continued to increase, and the inventory of 47 ports decreased while the steel mills' inventory increased. It is expected to show a volatile trend [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose yesterday. The spot price in some areas decreased, and the Mongolian coal market was strong with light trading. The supply increase was limited, and the demand was rigid. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose yesterday. The spot price at the port declined, the fourth round of price reduction was implemented, and the coking enterprises' production - cut expectation increased. The demand was in a good state. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened in a volatile manner on Monday. The spot price in some areas increased. The weekly output was at a low level but rising, the demand improved slightly but was still low year - on - year, and the cost support was limited. It is expected to operate in a low - level volatile manner [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened in a volatile manner on Monday. The spot price was basically flat. The weekly output increased, the demand improved slightly, and the cost support was weak. It is expected to operate in a low - level volatile manner [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar being 4.0, down 3.0; the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil being 9.0, up 2.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also had different changes, for example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 95.0, down 3.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore was 42.8, down 5.2 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different regions and varieties showed different trends, like the Shanghai rebar price remaining unchanged at 3090.0 yuan/ton, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port dropping to 708.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of different varieties changed, such as the rebar's disk profit being 94.6, down 2.2; the coil - rebar spread being 117.0, down 7.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of main contracts of various varieties from 2020 - 2025, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report presents the inter - period contract spread trend charts of different varieties, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [25][27][31][33][34][35][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: It provides the inter - variety contract spread trend charts of main contracts, like the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc [39][40][41][42]. - **Rebar Profit**: The report shows the profit trend charts of rebar, including the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: The current assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [50]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: The current director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the coal industry [50]. - **Liu Xi**: A black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [50]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: A black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs, and predicts that they will all experience wide - range fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to fluctuate within a range due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 706.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan or 0.43%. The positions increased by 4,370 hands. Among spot prices, the price of most ores decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads also changed to varying degrees [4]. - **News**: On June 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, unchanged from the previous month [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 2,995 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03%. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,112 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.16%. In terms of inventory and demand, there were corresponding changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][8][9]. - **News**: In May 2025, national steel production data showed a decline in crude steel and pig iron production year - on - year, and an increase in steel production. On June 19, steel production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand changed [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Ferrosilicon is affected by sector sentiment resonance and silicomanganese has a firm ore - end quotation, both with wide - range fluctuations [2][10]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [10]. - **News**: On June 23, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed, and a steel mill in Shandong finalized the ferrosilicon purchase price [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Four rounds of coke price cuts have been implemented [2][13]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of coke and coking coal futures changed, and there were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads. The positions of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 contracts also changed [13][15]. - **News**: On June 23, the prices of coking coal in some regions changed, and the positions of the top 20 members in the DCE showed that the long positions of coking coal increased and the short positions decreased, while for coke, both long and short positions decreased [13][14][15]. Thermal Coal - **Market Trend**: Demand remains to be released, with wide - range fluctuations [2][17]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day, with an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a closing price of 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan. There were corresponding prices for domestic and foreign trade thermal coal, and the positions of the top 20 members in the ZCE did not change [18][19]. Logs - **Market Trend**: The basis is being repaired, with wide - range fluctuations [2][21]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts changed, and the prices of various types of logs in the spot market were mostly stable [21]. - **News**: On June 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, unchanged from the previous month [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand [1]. - The evolution of the Israel - Iran situation is crucial, determining the short - term direction and pricing logic of major asset classes. There is uncertainty in the short - term, and the subsequent counter - attack strength of Iran needs to be observed [1]. - Risk appetite is under short - term pressure, but the impact is limited with a stable RMB. The implied volatility of energy and the stability of offshore US dollar liquidity should be continuously tracked [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance Review - The overall commodity market rose 2.29% last week. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.11%, while the agricultural products and black sectors rose 2.10% and 0.91% respectively. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors fell 1.76% and 0.09% respectively [1][5]. - Among specific varieties, crude oil, methanol, and short - fiber led the gains with increases of 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively. Gold, pulp, and silver were the top decliners with drops of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1][5]. - The funds in the market decreased, mainly affected by the outflow of funds from precious metals [1][5]. 3.2 Market Outlook by Sector Precious Metals - International gold prices consolidated at high levels due to dovish signals from Fed officials, increased market expectations of interest rate cuts this year, a decline in the US dollar index, and continued gold purchases by global central banks. Silver showed a relatively differentiated performance, fluctuating within a range affected by manufacturing data [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - The non - ferrous metals sector fluctuated narrowly. Copper prices consolidated at high levels, supported by tight overseas inventories and continued global new energy investment, but the upward momentum slowed due to the Fed's interest rate policy and weak high - level consumption. Aluminum prices found support near the electrolytic aluminum cost line, and the market focused on power costs and inventory destocking [2]. Black Metals - Steel futures continued to rebound, driven by increased expectations of "stable growth" policies and the fermentation of Tangshan production restriction news. Iron ore prices stabilized following steel as port inventories decreased due to the Brazilian rainy season. The fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, and coking coal was more willing to follow the price increase, maintaining the resilience of the black metal industry chain, but the recovery of terminal demand still requires policy support [2]. Energy - Crude oil futures rose significantly due to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories. OPEC+ implemented production cuts well, and the market had positive expectations for the summer oil - using peak season, keeping oil prices strong in the short - term and driving the联动上涨 of fuel oil, asphalt and other varieties [3]. Chemicals - Driven by rising energy prices, the chemical sector generally strengthened. Some varieties such as methanol, PTA, and fuel oil made up for lost ground, and the inventory destocking speed accelerated due to some device overhauls and cost increases. Weak varieties such as PVC and ethylene glycol got short - term support, but the substantial recovery of the downstream has not been clear, and the market is more trading - driven [3]. Agricultural Products - The oil and oilseed sector fluctuated strongly. Although US soybean export data was weak, domestic rapeseed varieties rose supported by domestic production cuts and policy expectations, with rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil leading the gains. Corn prices were under pressure due to import substitution and declining deep - processing profitability. Pig prices fluctuated and corrected due to the off - season consumption and the pressure of slaughter, and industry confidence was still insufficient [3]. 3.3 Commodity - Related Fund Situation - Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with the overall gold ETF having a - 1.86% to - 1.95% decline, and the total scale decreased by 1.06%. The trading volume of gold ETFs decreased significantly [42]. - The energy - chemical futures ETF had a positive weekly return of 5.34%, and its scale increased by 2.07%, but the trading volume decreased by 78.24% [42]. - The soybean meal futures ETF had a weekly return of 0.73%, and its scale increased slightly by 0.17%, with a small decrease in trading volume [42]. - The non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a weekly return of - 0.20%, and its scale increased by 1.19%, with a 23.67% decrease in trading volume [42]. - The silver futures (LOF) had a weekly return of - 0.99%, and its trading volume increased by 64.13% while the scale remained unchanged [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain volatile, waiting for a driving force to break through. The macro - level lacks new drivers, and the cost - collapse narrative in the black sector has become less smooth. The market is cautious about demand during the off - season, and there is no strong rebound driver for the black sector. The steel basis still shows a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there is a possibility of the spot price moving towards the futures price during the off - season [4][5]. - The spot market for coking coal and coke is still weak, with the fourth round of price cuts for coke about to be implemented. However, the futures market has strengthened, and the basis has rapidly narrowed. Although the spot market sentiment has improved, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations. It is recommended that industrial customers actively participate in hedging, and ordinary investors wait for the situation to become clear [6]. - The steel tender prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have been determined, and the prices are expected to stabilize in the short term. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is weak, and attention should be paid to the actions of alloy plants due to increased production losses. The supply of silicomanganese has recovered, the demand has weakened, and the price is under pressure but the short - term decline space is limited [7]. - The trend of iron ore has not changed, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. Although the molten iron output has slightly increased, the inventory of steel mills has risen significantly due to increased sea - borne cargo. The iron ore shipment is increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight decline to a slight increase. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, a reduction in steel mill profits is necessary for spontaneous production cuts [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 20, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2985 yuan/ton with a 5 - yuan increase (0.17% increase), HC2601 at 3107 yuan/ton with a 9 - yuan increase (0.29% increase), I2601 at 674 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase (0.60% increase), J2601 at 1411.5 yuan/ton with a 14.5 - yuan increase (1.04% increase), and JM2601 at 821.5 yuan/ton with a 9.5 - yuan increase (1.17% increase). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2992 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan increase (0.23% increase), HC2510 at 3116 yuan/ton with a 12 - yuan increase (0.39% increase), I2509 at 703 yuan/ton with a 6.5 - yuan increase (0.93% increase), J2509 at 1384.5 yuan/ton with a 216.5 - yuan increase (1.21% increase), and JM2509 at 795 yuan/ton with an 8.5 - yuan increase (1.08% increase) [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and profits of futures contracts also showed corresponding changes on June 20. For example, the RB2510 - 2601 spread was 7 yuan/ton with no change, the HC2510 - 2601 spread was 9 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase, the coil - to - rebar spread was 124 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan increase, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.26 with a 0.02 decrease, etc. [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 20, the spot prices of various products also had different changes. For example, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3070 yuan/ton with no change, Tianjin rebar was 3220 yuan/ton with no change, Guangzhou rebar was 3150 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3210 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, etc. [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of various products also changed. For example, the HC main - contract basis was 94 yuan/ton with a 17 - yuan increase, the RB main - contract basis was 78 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan decrease, etc. [2]. Investment Strategies - **Steel**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, conduct rolling hedging and open - position management, and rotate spot inventories. For on - the - disk arbitrage, pay attention to short - term long positions in coking coal and coke. Industrial customers should actively participate in selling hedging [9]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Hold long positions in ferrosilicon and short positions in silicomanganese, and participate in single - side trading through options [9].