1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rumor of Powell's dismissal caused market turmoil, with the stock market initially falling and then rising, the dollar and bond yields dropping, and gold prices rising. Trump denied the rumor but hinted that dismissal could be possible under justifiable reasons [8][23]. - The market is paying attention to various commodities. For example, polysilicon may see its futures price hit new highs due to policy expectations, while styrene remains a short - allocation target. Natural rubber can be considered for long positions on dips due to weather disturbances, and cotton futures are technically strong but face some upward - limiting factors [9][11][12][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver to break through and rise. The trend intensities for gold and silver are both 1. The rumor of Powell's dismissal led to a rise in gold prices [17][23][25]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0. Macro events include the Powell dismissal rumor, and micro events involve mining investments and import data [17][27][29]. - **Zinc**: It is under pressure. The trend intensity is - 1. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's potential response are the main news [17][30][31]. - **Lead**: There may be a limit to its downside. The trend intensity is 0. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's response are the key news [17][33][34]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening. The trend intensity is - 1. The market is affected by macro events such as the Powell dismissal rumor and Trump's tariff plans [17][36][39]. - **Aluminum**: It faces upward pressure. Alumina requires attention on the impact of the ore end, and cast aluminum alloy oscillates within a range. The trend intensities for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are 0, - 1, and 0 respectively [17][40][41]. - **Nickel**: News affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and the macro situation. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are news about nickel supply and production in Canada, Indonesia, etc. [17][42][46]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Lithium - For lithium carbonate, the warehouse receipts continue to decline, and attention should be paid to substantial changes in supply. The trend intensity is 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has increased, and the new energy vehicle market shows certain trends [17][47][50]. 3.2.2 Silicon - related - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should be paid to the upward space. Polysilicon: Market news continues to ferment. The trend intensities for both are 1. The US has launched a national security investigation on polysilicon imports [17][51][53]. 3.2.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0. The Central Urban Work Conference is an important macro event [17][54]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are data on steel production, exports, and inventory [17][56][60]. - **Silicon - based Alloys (Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price and production - related news [17][61][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price, inventory, and position - related data [17][65][67]. 3.2.4 Energy - **Thermal Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend intensity is 0. There are price and position - related data [17][69][72]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The futures price has reached a new high for the year. It is technically strong in the short term, but factors such as poor downstream profits and new cotton harvest expectations may limit the upward movement. The trend intensity is not explicitly stated [14][17][20]. - **Natural Rubber**: Due to weather disturbances, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. The supply in Thailand is affected by rain, and the domestic production areas are also affected by weather to some extent [12][13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures' main price fluctuated. The Si2509 closed at 8,685 yuan/ton, down 0.91%. The trading volume was 1,111,567 lots, and the open interest was 379,848 lots, with a net decrease of 16,805 lots. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. In the second week of July, the output of industrial silicon remained at 72,000 tons. The resumption of production in the southwest production area offset the reduction of production by large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July is expected to remain at 310,000 tons. Demand has improved marginally, with a slight increase in the production schedule of polysilicon in July and stable demand for organic silicon. The short - term fundamental drivers are limited. The resistance range is 8,800 - 9,200 yuan/ton based on the average cost and the warehouse receipt cancellation range, but the spot price has been continuously firm, so it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The Si2509 closed at 8,685 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.91%. The trading volume was 1,111,567 lots, and the open interest was 379,848 lots, with a net decrease of 16,805 lots [4] 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of 553 grade in Inner Mongolia was 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 8,550 yuan/ton. The price of 421 grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,050 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,000 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,300 yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - In the second week of July, the output of industrial silicon remained at 72,000 tons. The resumption of production in the southwest production area offset the reduction of production by large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July is expected to remain at 310,000 tons. Demand has improved marginally, with a slight increase in the production schedule of polysilicon in July and stable demand for organic silicon. The short - term fundamental drivers are limited. The resistance range is 8,800 - 9,200 yuan/ton based on the average cost and the warehouse receipt cancellation range, but the spot price has been continuously firm, so it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4] 3.4 Market News - On July 17, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,215 lots, with a net decrease of 43 lots compared to the previous trading day. In the second week of July, the average price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material was 45,500 yuan, and the average price of N - type dense material was 44,000 yuan. In the second week of July, the national comprehensive price of silicon reported by the Silicon Industry Branch was 8,851 yuan/ton, an increase of 108 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of 553 grade was 8,602 yuan/ton, 441 grade was 8,852 yuan/ton, and 421 grade was 9,425 yuan/ton, with increases of 100 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 128 yuan/ton respectively. The comprehensive prices in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 8,749 yuan/ton, 9,734 yuan/ton, and 9,600 yuan/ton. The FOB price remained stable overall [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the US may not fully impact the CL spread in the short - term due to high US copper inventory. Attention should be paid to tariff exemptions for some countries. After the tariff implementation, the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply - demand is balanced. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - For zinc, prices fluctuate widely. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak at home and weak in Europe overseas. There is a risk of a squeeze in overseas LME inventory. The strategy is to short zinc on rebounds, hold long positions in the domestic - foreign positive spread, and look for long positions in the monthly spread [2]. - For nickel, supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable overseas and slightly decreasing at home. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban, concerns are relieved. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continued to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, supply is reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [10]. - For lead, prices decline slightly. Supply is weak, demand is uncertain, and there is a seasonal peak expectation in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [12]. - For tin, prices fluctuate widely. Supply may decline in July - August, demand is weak, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to news from the Wa State mines [14]. - For industrial silicon, production is expected to decline, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the start - up does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [17]. - For lithium carbonate, futures prices rebound. Supply - demand is strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A downward turn requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by 165, and LME inventory increased by 850 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports. The US has filled its annual copper import gap, and the CL spread may not fully reflect the tariff. The export of South American countries may be affected, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price changed by 40, and LME inventory increased by 11425 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply - demand is balanced in July [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, and LME inventory increased by 5200 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak. There is a risk of a squeeze in overseas LME inventory [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1550, and LME inventory remained unchanged [6]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable overseas and slightly decreasing at home. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban, concerns are relieved [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the 201 cold - rolled coil price increased by 50 [10]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing [10]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the lead price decreased slightly, and LME inventory increased by 10125 tons [12][21]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is weak, demand is uncertain, and there is a seasonal peak expectation in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the LME tin inventory decreased by 115 tons [14]. - **Market Situation**: Supply may decline in July - August, demand is weak, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to news from the Wa State mines [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis decreased by 90, and the 553 East China and Tianjin basis increased by 60 [17]. - **Market Situation**: Production is expected to decline, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the start - up does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 250, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1 [19]. - **Market Situation**: Futures prices rebound. Supply - demand is strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A downward turn requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not contain information about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, the overall production of polysilicon enterprises increases, with some enterprises increasing production while others undergoing maintenance, and self - disciplined production cuts do not significantly affect capacity fluctuations [2] - On the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declines significantly, but prices gradually recover. Downstream photovoltaic module production scheduling has been adjusted down, and demand weakens marginally. Silicon wafer enterprises are expected to end the decline in overall production as profits stabilize, and cell manufacturers also have production cut plans [2] - Overall, the demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. Although the polysilicon price increase last week gave most manufacturers a chance to turn losses into profits, this is not normal, and most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level [2] - Polysilicon continues to rise today, with the overall open interest starting to decline and trading volume slowing down. The short - term speculative market is expected to end, and it is advisable to buy put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 42,945 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 475 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 71,783 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,962 lots; the price difference between August - September polysilicon is 350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 34,260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 575 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 45,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the basis of polysilicon is 3,030 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 705 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.72 US dollars/kg [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,685 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; industrial silicon production is 305,200 tons per month, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Polysilicon production is 95,000 tons per month, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons; the import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons per month, a month - on - month decrease of 161 tons; the spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.04 US dollars/kg per week, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 US dollars/kg; the average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,190 US dollars/ton per month, a month - on - month decrease of 140 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Solar cell production is 7.0569 million kilowatts per month, a month - on - month decrease of 135,900 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 RMB/W; the export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 units per month, a month - on - month increase of 19,610,660 units; the import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 units per month, a month - on - month decrease of 8,021,950 units; the average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars per unit, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 US dollars per unit [2] 3.6 Industry News - Qingdao aims to build a 10 - million - kilowatt - level offshore new energy base by 2030, including developing offshore wind power and photovoltaic projects and promoting the development of the hydrogen energy industry [2] - At the State Council Information Office press conference, it was mentioned that consumption policies will continue to be strengthened in the second half of the year, and prices will rise moderately at a low level [2]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot price has shown an upward trend due to rising polysilicon prices, continued production cuts by major manufacturers, and increased downstream demand [1][2]. Price Movement - The main contract closing price fluctuated from 8470 CNY/ton to 8685 CNY/ton, with an increase of 2.54% during the week of July 10-16, 2025 [1]. - The national average price rose by 108 CNY/ton to 8851 CNY/ton, with specific grades priced as follows: 553 at 8602 CNY/ton, 441 at 8852 CNY/ton, and 421 at 9425 CNY/ton, each increasing by 100 CNY/ton, 100 CNY/ton, and 128 CNY/ton respectively [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply side: Southern regions are increasing production as the wet season approaches, while major manufacturers in the northern regions have no plans for resumption, leading to stable overall production [1]. - Demand side: The restart of organic silicon monomer plants has increased demand for industrial silicon, while polysilicon production remains stable, and the aluminum alloy industry is in a low season with stable procurement based on demand [1]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has improved due to the increase in downstream demand and the rise in polysilicon prices, which are expected to support further price increases for industrial silicon [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Glass and Soda Ash - Yesterday, the soda ash futures market sentiment weakened, with the 09 contract dropping about 30 points. Although the overall market sentiment had improved earlier, the supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains in surplus, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to watch for opportunities to short on rebounds [1]. - The glass futures market sentiment declined yesterday, while the spot market remained strong. Currently, it is the off - season, and the industry needs capacity clearance. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Logs - Yesterday, the log futures market fluctuated slightly stronger. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand due to the off - season for demand and seasonal reduction in supply from New Zealand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 150 - 200 yuan/ton, and the futures price rose by 90 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase. In the short - term, the price will fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline due to the increase in warehouse receipts [3]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price increased. There is still room for the futures price to catch up with the spot price. The market has a wait - and - see attitude, and there are both positive and negative factors. Attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [4]. Natural Rubber - The natural rubber price rebounded due to macro - sentiment, but the fundamental situation is still weak. It is recommended to short at the price range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to raw material supply and US tariff changes [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price and Spread - Glass: The prices in North China, East China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in Central China increased by 30 yuan/ton with a 2.80% increase. The 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased by 1.35% and 2.81% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 17.53% [1]. - Soda Ash: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased by 0.53% and 2.06% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 17.95% [1]. Supply - Soda ash: The operating rate and weekly output remained unchanged. The float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 2.87%, while soda ash factory inventory and delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2.98% and 4.39% respectively. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures: The 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts increased slightly, while the 2507 contract decreased slightly. The basis of the 09, 11, and 01 contracts decreased [2]. - Spot prices: The prices of most spot logs remained unchanged, except for a 1.39% decrease in the price of 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port [2]. Supply - Monthly supply: Port shipments increased by 2.12%, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 8.62% [2]. Inventory - Weekly inventory: The national inventory decreased by 0.31%, with a 1.66% decrease in Shandong and a 1.93% increase in Jiangsu [2]. Demand - Weekly demand: The daily average outbound volume decreased by 12% nationwide, with a 9% decrease in Shandong and a 14% decrease in Jiangsu [2]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - passed S15530 and Xinjiang 99 - grade industrial silicon increased, while the basis of some varieties decreased [3]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2508 - 2509, 2509 - 2510, and 2512 - 2601 increased significantly, while the spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased significantly [3]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national output and operating rate decreased, while the output and operating rate in Yunnan and Sichuan increased. In May, the output of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy increased [3]. Inventory Change - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 17.46%, and the social inventory decreased slightly. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.34% [3]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of N - type granular silicon decreased slightly, and the basis of N - type and cauliflower - type decreased [4]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract increased by 1.69%. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The output of silicon wafers and polysilicon decreased. Monthly: The polysilicon output increased, and the import and export volumes changed [4]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 1.47%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.67% [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The prices of some rubber varieties increased slightly, and the basis and non - standard spread changed [5]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.69%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 16.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the output in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the domestic tire output decreased slightly. The tire export volume increased [5]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory increased slightly, and the warehouse receipt inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly [5].

Group 1 - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a weak performance with prices showing a downward trend, currently fluctuating around 8740.0 CNY/ton, with a maximum of 8770.0 CNY and a minimum of 8585.0 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.08% [1] - New Lake Futures indicates that the industry fundamentals remain loose with both supply and demand increasing, but inventory absorption is still weak, leading to limited price upside and continued pressure on prices [1] - Hualian Futures notes an increase in the number of industrial silicon furnaces last week, while downstream demand for aluminum alloys is weakening, resulting in a standoff between supply and demand, with high prices not being accepted by the market [1] Group 2 - Jianxin Futures reports that industrial silicon production continues to exceed 70,000 tons, with monthly output expected to remain above 310,000 tons, driven by recovery in the Southwest production area [2] - Demand for polysilicon is projected to increase to 100,000-110,000 tons in July, but overall monthly demand growth is insufficient, with an increase of less than 20,000 tons [2] - The futures warehouse receipts are beginning to increase, and there is a positive expectation from industrial policies, leading to a short-term strong oscillation in the market [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint On July 15, industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The main contract of industrial silicon 2509 closed at 8785 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.81%, and its position decreased by 6237 lots to 4397000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9111 yuan/ton, an increase of 173 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rose to 8500 yuan/ton, and the spot shifted from premium to discount of 60 yuan/ton. The main contract of polysilicon 2508 closed at 42470 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.78%, and its position decreased by 6237 lots to 69821 lots. The price of N - type recycled polysilicon material rose to 44550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 43500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 1030 yuan/ton. Market news indicated that Xinjiang might cancel the subsidized electricity price and large - scale plants' shut - down capacities would not restart, leading to continuous price recovery of industrial silicon due to cost increase. However, there were many disagreements in the market, with limited overall transmission and high difficulty in continuous upward surges. It was advisable to continue short - selling at the upper limit of the range. Guided by policies, the confidence of the photovoltaic industry chain in price support increased, but the terminal demand had not improved, and market transactions were almost at a standstill. Futures followed the spot price and were more driven by speculative demand. In the short term, there were a lot of true and false news in the market, with increased volatility of the disk and higher risks of chasing up [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts increased by 220 yuan/ton and 695 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon generally increased, with the price increase of different grades ranging from 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose by 200 yuan/ton, and the spot premium shifted to a discount of 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 495 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts both increased by 705 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices remained unchanged, and the current lowest deliverable price stayed the same. The spot premium decreased by 705 yuan/ton to 1030 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 168, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 7360 tons. The total industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 4800 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory was flat, and the total polysilicon social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: The report presented charts on the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts showed the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][16][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts included the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [21][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts presented the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [27][29][35]. 4. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th best non - ferrous metal industry futures research teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of excellent non - ferrous metal industry team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [37]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [37]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations due to uncertainties in the US economic situation and inflation. Copper prices are likely to face downward pressure due to changes in supply and demand and tariff policies. Alumina prices are expected to show a strong and volatile trend, with a supply shift from tight balance to structural surplus. The electrolytic aluminum market has mixed factors, with macro - economic and policy impacts, and inventory changes affecting prices. Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure, with supply and demand imbalances. Zinc prices may decline due to increased supply and weak consumption. Lead prices may fluctuate at high levels, with improved consumption and limited supply growth. Nickel prices are expected to be weak, with a weak supply - demand situation in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are under pressure due to over - supply and weak demand. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be bullish after a correction, with a balanced supply - demand situation. Polysilicon prices are expected to enter a volatile phase. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [3][8][14][20][27][30][34][37][42][48][53][55]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed down 0.58% at $3323.29 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.12% at $37.686 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.54% to 98.62, the 10 - year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.488%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened, closing up 0.12% at 7.181 [2]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met market expectations, with the overall CPI annual rate rising to 2.7% and the core CPI annual rate rising to 2.9%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 45.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 53.5% [2]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data dampened market expectations of a rate cut, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to rise and precious metals to be under pressure. If the US labor market does not collapse unexpectedly, the Fed's rate - cut timing may be postponed, and precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [3]. Trading Strategy - Consider taking profits on long positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 78,070 yuan per ton, up 0.18%. The LME copper closed at $9,657.5 per ton, up 0.15%. LME inventory increased by 850 tons to 110,500 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,810 tons to 238,000 tons [5]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met expectations. There were various tariff - related news, and the import of copper ore and concentrates in June 2025 increased by 1.7% year - on - year, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 6.4% year - on - year [5][6]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to rise and non - ferrous metal prices to fall. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1, and the supply situation will change, with LME inventory bottoming out [8]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [8]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 17 yuan to 3,144 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [10]. Important Information - There were policy - related news, domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, production capacity, output, inventory, and bauxite shipments [11][12][13]. Logic Analysis - Although the operating capacity remained flat, production was increasing. The supply - demand pattern is shifting from tight balance to structural surplus, but warehouse - receipt demand may disperse the pressure of spot surplus, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile [14]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE aluminum 2508 contract remained flat at 20,390 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [18]. Important Information - There were changes in inventory, basis, and warehouse receipts. US inflation data and tariff - related news were also reported, along with domestic housing construction data [18][19]. Trading Logic - Macro - economic factors suppress the Fed's rate - cut expectations, and the domestic market focuses on policy expectations. Fundamentally, inventory changes and demand factors co - exist [20]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 19,795 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions remained flat [23]. Important Information - There were changes in production, cost, and inventory [23][24][26]. Trading Logic - Supply is stable but with actual transaction difficulties, and demand is weak. Futures prices are expected to follow aluminum prices due to cost factors [27]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the futures - spot price difference is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options trading [27]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market fell 1.13% to $2,701.5 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2509 fell 0.54% to 21,985 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [29]. Important Information - A zinc smelter planned maintenance and capacity expansion, and domestic zinc inventory increased [29]. Logic Analysis - Domestic zinc supply is increasing, consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating, so prices may be under pressure [30]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [35]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead market fell 0.2% to $2,001 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2508 contract fell 0.44% to 16,935 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [32]. Important Information - Lead inventory increased [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply of recycled lead is in a loss state, and production willingness is low. The traditional peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, and consumption is improving [34]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options trading [34]. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel rose to $15,215 per ton, and the SHFE nickel NI2508 rose to 121,060 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [37]. Important Information - The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse started operation [37]. Logic Analysis - Concerns about US tariffs affect external demand. The supply - demand situation in the off - season is weak, and prices are expected to be weak but with cost support [37]. Trading Strategy - Prices are expected to decline. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [38]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The SS2508 contract rose to 12,720 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were reported [40]. Important Information - India postponed the implementation of relevant regulations, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless steel [40][42]. Logic Analysis - External and internal demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [42]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 2.81% to 8,785 yuan per ton, and spot prices also rose [45]. Important Information - The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [46]. Comprehensive Analysis - Production is decreasing, and demand is relatively stable. The market is in a balanced state, and prices are expected to be bullish after a correction [48]. Strategy - Adopt a bullish view after a correction. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [49]. Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract rose 2.78% to 42,470 yuan per ton, and spot prices declined [51]. Important Information - There was news of China - EU energy cooperation [51]. Comprehensive Analysis - Market rumors are frequent, and prices are expected to enter a volatile phase [53]. Strategy - Conduct range trading. Wait and see for options trading. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [53]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract rose 140 yuan to 66,100 yuan per ton, and spot prices rose [55]. Important Information - There were policy - related news about technology export control [55]. Logic Analysis - Supply - side disturbances have not had a substantial impact on production. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [55]. Trading Strategy - Wait for short - selling opportunities. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [57].