聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月23日 免费声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但厂发期货对这些信息的能确性及完整体不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人 员的不同观点、见解及分析方法。并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。 在任何情况下。 报告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不 风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,题权归广发期货所有,未经 构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价。 投资者据此投资, 广发期货书面授权. 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为广发期货。 6 关注微信公众号 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 些业期现日报 | 品中 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7347 | 7399 | -55 | -0.70% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7415 | 7462 | -47 | -0.63% ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - This week, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East intensified, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices and a notable upward push on the cost side. Due to the war, some ethylene glycol plants in Iran temporarily shut down, leading to concerns about supply losses and a continuous upward trend in ethylene glycol prices [1]. - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 70.33% (a 4.07% increase from last week), with the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) at 70.16% (a 1.73% increase from last week). Domestic supply is expected to increase as the maintenance period ends, and the load will return to a high level in July. Although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes [1]. - The operating load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 65.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week), and the operating load of texturing machines is 77.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week). The polyester operating rate is 92.00% (a 1.10% increase from last week), and the direct - spun filament load is 91.40% (a 1.20% increase from last week). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased. The operating rate of polyester staple fiber plants is 95.1% (+3.0%), and the equity inventory days are 12.1 days (a 0.6 - day increase from last week). The operating rate of bottle - chip plants is 80.7% (a 0.9% increase from last week). Domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining. However, polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. After the raw material price increase, filament inventory decreased due to concentrated restocking. This week, the filament and bottle - chip loads increased. High - price fluctuations may increase inventory pressure, and continued attention should be paid to polyester inventory changes. In the short term, the filament load is expected to remain stable. The inventory of staple fiber is not high, and the implementation of production cuts is uncertain. Regarding bottle chips, Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance at the beginning of July, and Huarun plans to start on June 22, involving a production capacity of 2.36 million tons. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China is 616,000 tons (a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory is 537,000 tons (a decrease of 27,000 tons from last week). The planned arrivals at East China ports this week total 100,000 tons, which is neutral, and port inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to changes in arrival schedules due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [3]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering. The supply - demand structure in June still shows a favorable inventory reduction, but after the warehouse receipts are cancelled and flow out, the available spot in the market will increase. The load will return to a high level in July. Overseas, although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes. Later, the recovery of domestic production and the increase in Saudi supply will largely offset the impact of the shutdown of Iranian plants. On the demand side, the current situation is firm, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans at the end of June and beginning of July, and the demand outlook is weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [3]. - For trading strategies, the short - term outlook is bullish. Attention should be paid to further developments in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and if the conflict eases, prices may fall. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Price and Spread - This week, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East intensified, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices and a notable upward push on the cost side. Due to the war, some ethylene glycol plants in Iran temporarily shut down, leading to concerns about supply losses and a continuous upward trend in ethylene glycol prices [1] Supply - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 70.33% (a 4.07% increase from last week), with the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) at 70.16% (a 1.73% increase from last week). Domestic supply is expected to increase as the maintenance period ends, and the load will return to a high level in July. Although Iranian ethylene glycol plants have temporarily shut down, inventory is still being shipped normally, with little impact on actual arrivals in July. The supply situation from August to September depends on the shutdown duration and shipping routes [1] Demand - The operating load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 65.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week), and the operating load of texturing machines is 77.0% (a 2.0% decrease from last week). The polyester operating rate is 92.00% (a 1.10% increase from last week), and the direct - spun filament load is 91.40% (a 1.20% increase from last week). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased. The operating rate of polyester staple fiber plants is 95.1% (+3.0%), and the equity inventory days are 12.1 days (a 0.6 - day increase from last week). The operating rate of bottle - chip plants is 80.7% (a 0.9% increase from last week). Domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, with terminal orders and operations declining. However, polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. After the raw material price increase, filament inventory decreased due to concentrated restocking. This week, the filament and bottle - chip loads increased. High - price fluctuations may increase inventory pressure, and continued attention should be paid to polyester inventory changes. In the short term, the filament load is expected to remain stable. The inventory of staple fiber is not high, and the implementation of production cuts is uncertain. Regarding bottle chips, Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance at the beginning of July, and Huarun plans to start on June 22, involving a production capacity of 2.36 million tons. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2] Inventory - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China is 616,000 tons (a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory is 537,000 tons (a decrease of 27,000 tons from last week). The planned arrivals at East China ports this week total 100,000 tons, which is neutral, and port inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to changes in arrival schedules due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [3]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 7 月原油即期合约因六月节假 | | | | 期休市。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.15 美元至 78.85 美元/桶，涨 | | | | 幅 2.80%。SC2508 以 574.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 15.5 元/桶，涨幅为 | | | | 2.77%。知情人士称，美国总统特朗普已告诉他的高级助手，称他 | | | | 已批准了对伊朗的攻击计划，但暂不下达最终命令，以观察伊朗 | | | | 是否会放弃其核计划。美国高级官员正在为未来几天对伊朗发动 | | | | 袭击的可能性做准备。伊朗副外长加里布阿巴迪警告美国不要为 | | | | 了支持以色列而介入以方与伊朗的冲突。加里布阿巴迪表示，如 | | | 原油 | 果美国执意介入，伊朗将作出回应。花旗银行表示，如果伊朗以 | 震荡 | | | 色列冲突升级，导致伊朗 110 万桶/日的石油出口中断，以 5 月的 | | | | 出口水平为基准，可 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The conflict between Iran and Israel has further escalated, with Israel attacking Iranian oil - field facilities and Iran responding. It is expected that crude oil prices will continue to rise, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow [2]. - PTA is expected to reduce inventory in the coming period. The actions of major factories to increase the basis for sales have had a significant impact on the market, and PTA spot is becoming tight. Polyester has recently rapidly reduced inventory, and the inventory has increased significantly. Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, market purchasing willingness has increased [2]. - For ethylene glycol, although the overall import volume from Iran is limited, the conflict escalation may affect Iran's petrochemical exports. Coal - based ethylene glycol profit has expanded, and the recent blockage of ethane imports from the United States has affected domestic ethylene glycol plants. Ethylene glycol will continue the inventory - reduction rhythm, and the arrival volume will decrease [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 552.7 yuan/barrel on June 18, 2025, to 570.9 yuan/barrel on June 19, 2025, an increase of 18.20 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 897.5 yuan/ton to 839.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.26 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.2234 to 1.2023, a decrease of 0.0212; PTA main - contract futures price rose from 4914 yuan/ton to 4988 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.0 yuan/ton; PTA spot price remained at 5190 yuan/ton; spot processing fee decreased from 409.2 yuan/ton to 324.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84.5 yuan/ton; on - disk processing fee decreased from 103.2 yuan/ton to 92.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.5 yuan/ton; main - contract basis decreased from 293 to 270, a decrease of 23.0; PTA warehouse - receipt quantity decreased from 80591 to 37468, a decrease of 43123 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG main - contract futures price rose from 4471 yuan/ton to 4539 yuan/ton, an increase of 68.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (129.84) yuan/ton to (127.03) yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price rose from 4529 yuan/ton to 4585 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.0 yuan/ton; main - contract basis increased from 82 to 86, an increase of 4.0 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX rose from 888 to 904, an increase of 16; PX - naphtha spread rose from 262 to 271, an increase of 9; PX operating rate decreased from 83.07% to 82.70%, a decrease of 0.37% [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: Decreased from 83.07% to 82.70%, a decrease of 0.37% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Decreased from 83.80% to 78.56%, a decrease of 5.24% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Increased from 56.16% to 57.88%, an increase of 1.72% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Decreased from 89.99% to 89.98%, a decrease of 0.01% [2]. Product Price and Cash - flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F decreased from 7130 to 7120, a decrease of 10.0; POY cash - flow decreased from (75) to (103), a decrease of 28.0; FDY150D/96F remained at 7445; FDY cash - flow decreased from (260) to (278), a decrease of 18.0; DTY150D/48F rose from 8370 to 8390, an increase of 20.0; DTY cash - flow increased from (35) to (33), an increase of 2.0; filament sales rate decreased from 59% to 31%, a decrease of 28% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber rose from 6835 to 6890, an increase of 55; staple - fiber cash - flow increased from (20) to 17, an increase of 37.0; staple - fiber sales rate decreased from 64% to 61%, a decrease of 3% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip decreased from 6055 to 6050, a decrease of 5.0; chip cash - flow decreased from (250) to (273), a decrease of 23.0; chip sales rate increased from 40% to 42%, an increase of 2% [2]. Device Maintenance - An East - China 1.5 - million - ton PTA device has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6; an East - China 3 - million - ton PTA device has recently shut down for maintenance, expected to last about 10 days [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies focused on sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical futures showed different price movements. For example, crude oil (SC2508) rose 3.52% to 564, and liquefied petroleum gas (PG2508) rose 1.15% to 4,469. Trading volumes and open interests also changed accordingly [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Option volume and open interest PCR values varied among different varieties. For instance, the open interest PCR of crude oil was 1.65 with a 0.18 change, indicating the strength of the market sentiment [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels were identified for each option variety. For example, the pressure level of crude oil was 610 and the support level was 450 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility levels differed across different options. Crude oil's implied volatility was relatively high, with a weighted implied volatility of 51.85% and an increase of 8.52% [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations - **Energy - related Options (Crude Oil and LPG)**: - Fundamental analysis considered factors such as US economic data and geopolitical conflicts. - Option strategies included constructing bull spread combinations for directional gains, selling call + put option combinations for time - value and directional returns, and using long - collar strategies for spot hedging [8][10]. - **Alcohol - related Options (Methanol and Ethylene Glycol)**: - Fundamental analysis focused on inventory and production. - Similar option strategies were proposed as in energy - related options [10][11]. - **Polyolefin - related Options (Polypropylene, PVC, Plastic, and Styrene)**: - Fundamental analysis involved downstream开工 rates and inventory levels. - Directional strategies mainly included bull spread combinations, and some had no volatility strategies [11]. - **Rubber - related Options**: - Fundamental analysis considered overseas production, policies, and tire industry conditions. - Volatility strategies involved selling neutral call + put option combinations [12]. - **Polyester - related Options**: - Fundamental analysis was based on inventory and downstream demand. - Volatility strategies included selling neutral call + put option combinations [13]. - **Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda and Soda Ash)**: - Fundamental analysis focused on production, capacity utilization, and inventory. - Directional strategies included bear spread combinations for caustic soda and soda ash, and volatility strategies involved selling bearish option combinations [14]. - **Urea Options**: - Fundamental analysis considered inventory and price trends. - Volatility strategies included selling neutral call + put option combinations [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The conflict between Iran and Israel has further escalated, with Israel attacking Iranian oil - field facilities and Iran responding. It is expected that crude oil prices will continue to rise, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow [2]. - PTA will go into a de - stocking phase. The actions of mainstream factories to increase the basis for sales have had a significant impact on the market, and PTA spot is becoming tight. Polyester has recently de - stocked rapidly, and inventory has increased significantly. The market's purchasing willingness has increased due to rising crude oil prices [2]. - For ethylene glycol, although the overall import volume from Iran is limited, the conflict may affect Iranian petrochemical exports. Coal - based ethylene glycol profits have expanded, and the recent blockage of US ethane imports has affected domestic ethylene glycol plants. Ethylene glycol will continue to de - stock, and the arrival volume will decrease [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 541.6 yuan/barrel on June 16, 2025, to 529.8 yuan/barrel on June 17, 2025, a decrease of 11.8 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased from 866 to 884, and the PX - naphtha spread rose from 246 to 260. The PX operating rate remained at 83.07% [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 rose from 4766 yuan/ton to 4782 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased from 5005 yuan/ton to 5020 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 311.5 yuan/ton to 241.8 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee dropped from 72.5 yuan/ton to - 6.2 yuan/ton. The PTA operating rate increased from 81.57% to 83.80%, and the number of PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 84853 to 80591 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 rose from 4374 yuan/ton to 4400 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 135.55 yuan/ton to - 131.74 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price increased from 4426 to 4446. The MEG operating rate remained at 56.16%, and the main - contract basis remained at 82 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: The polyester load increased from 89.74% to 89.99%. Among polyester filaments, the POY, FDY, and DTY prices remained unchanged, but their cash flows decreased by 20. The long - filament sales rate increased from 30% to 31%. For polyester staple fibers, the price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple increased by 20, and the sales rate increased from 52% to 53%. For polyester chips, the semi - bright chip price decreased by 30, the chip cash flow decreased by 50, and the chip sales rate increased from 40% to 47% [2]. 3.2 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. A 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of current oil price valuation is the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, which has intensified concerns about the supply side of the oil market. Overall, the center of oil prices will continue to move upward with large amplitude [1][3]. - For fuel oil, the supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the LU - FU spread still has downward space [3]. - For asphalt, the short - term cost - end crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and BU is restricted by the demand side, with limited upward space and smaller increases than crude oil and fuel oil [3][4]. - For polyester, PX is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, TA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and EG prices will fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For rubber, the rubber price will fluctuate under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand [6]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly with increased volatility [6]. - For polyolefins, short - term price fluctuations will increase, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short term [6][7]. - For PVC, the fundamentals still have pressure, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling before the market provides obvious space [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the WTI July contract closed up $3.07 to $74.84 per barrel, a 4.28% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $3.22 to $76.45 per barrel, a 4.40% increase; SC2507 closed at 552.5 yuan per barrel, up 31.9 yuan per barrel, a 6.13% increase [1]. - The Israel - Iran conflict is intensifying. The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [1]. - In the week ending June 13, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels, the largest single - week decline since the week ending August 25, 2023 [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.03% at 3,247 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2508 closed down 1.25% at 3,806 yuan per ton [3]. - In May, the average commercial inventory level of crude oil and fuel oil at Shandong coastal ports was 8.7 million tons, a slight 0.91% decline month - on - month [3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.03% at 3,644 yuan per ton [3]. - Next week, refinery resumption is expected to drive a slight increase in production, but overall supply will remain low. Northern demand is relatively stable, while southern demand is weak due to rain [3][4]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,782 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.34%; EG2509 closed at 4,400 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [4]. - A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi is restarting, and a 500,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has stopped for maintenance [4]. Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 40 yuan per ton to 13,870 yuan per ton; the NR main contract closed down 20 yuan per ton to 12,140 yuan per ton [4]. - Increased rainfall in the producing areas has led to不畅 raw material output at the beginning of tapping, and downstream demand is weak [6]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,615 yuan per ton, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,987.5 yuan per ton [6]. - The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO plant operating rate remains high, and the port inventory increase will slow down [6]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan per ton. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty, short - term price fluctuations will increase [6][7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the East China PVC market fluctuated and consolidated. With the downstream entering the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, futures prices, spot prices, basis rates, and other data of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on June 17 and 16 [8]. 3.3 Market News - On June 17, the Middle East geopolitical situation was tense. Israel's Defense Minister Katz said the Israeli military had destroyed the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility [10]. - The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 and expects sufficient oil supply in the market until 2030 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][14][16][18][20][22]. 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33][36]. 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57][58][59][62][63]. 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [64][65][67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [71][72][73][74]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979 [76].

化工日报 | 2025-06-18 近月货源依然偏紧，PX和PTA月差走强 市场要闻与数据 周末以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，在伊以冲突影响下，原油价格冲高回落，聚酯产业链跟随大 幅波动。但同时基本面方面，瓶片大厂逸盛、华润等装置7月初拟减产，需求走弱预期下，聚酯产业链承压。 周二霍尔木兹海峡附近三条游轮相撞起火，市场震荡上行，在外商挺价PX的情况下，PX近月浮动价走强。 市场分析 成本端，近期油价在中东冲突下反复，周末以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，近期关注地缘变化， 如果伊以冲突对能源设施的破坏加剧，甚至对霍尔木兹海峡产生影响，则油价面临进一步的上行风险。如果事态 控制在一定程度内，伊以双方会回到谈判桌上，则地缘溢价可能会再度回落。 汽油和芳烃方面，近期美国汽油裂解再度回撤，在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限，今年的 调油需求已不值得过多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。 芳烃方面，3~5月韩国出口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复 情况，短流程利润修复下，PX 工厂重新开始外 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will show a strong trend, with PX having a view score of 1, PTA a view score of 1, and PR a view score of 1 [2] Core View - The international oil price fluctuates around geopolitical risks, and the recent significant fluctuations in oil prices affect the PX trend. Although the overall PX supply capacity has increased, the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still in a state of inventory reduction. The PTA market has a slight increase, but the supply will increase in the month, and the downstream polyester factories resist high basis prices. The polyester bottle - chip market has a weak trading atmosphere, with stable and falling supply - side quotations. The polyester industry chain currently has an unoptimistic demand and generally fluctuates with costs [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 17, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $74.84 per barrel, up 4.28%; Brent crude oil was $76.45 per barrel, up 4.40%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $625.63 per ton, up 0.24%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $745 per ton, up 1.98%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $884 per ton, up 2.08% [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,782 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; the settlement price was 4,750 yuan per ton, down 0.54%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,020 yuan per ton, up 0.16%; the settlement price was 4,956 yuan per ton, down 0.88%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 5,018 yuan per ton, up 0.26%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 5,020 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; the external price index was $651 per ton, up 0.77%. The near - far month spread was 206 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the basis was 238 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [1] - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,776 yuan per ton, up 0.27%; the settlement price was 6,730 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,960 yuan per ton, down 2.41%; the settlement price was 6,922 yuan per ton, down 2.94%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,868 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) was $862 per ton, up 0.82%; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB Korea) was $863 per ton, up 3.11%. The PXN spread was $258.38 per ton, up 6.82%; the PX - MX spread was $139 per ton, up 2.58%. The basis was 92 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan [1] - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,982 yuan per ton, up 0.03%; the settlement price was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.37%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,082 yuan per ton, up 0.23%; the settlement price was 6,048 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged; in the South China market was 6,170 yuan per ton, unchanged. The basis in the East China market was 68 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; in the South China market was 188 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester products such as DTY, POY, FDY68D, FDY150D, and short - fiber remained unchanged on June 17, 2025. The price index of polyester chips was 5,970 yuan per ton, down 0.83%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 83.07%, unchanged. The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 83.80%, up 2.23%; of polyester factories was 89.99%, up 0.25%; of bottle - chip factories was 82.46%, unchanged; of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.33%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales - The sales rate of polyester filament was 31.00%, up 1.00%; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 53.00%, unchanged; the sales rate of polyester chips was 48.00%, up 7.00% [1] Important Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20. The international oil price fluctuates around geopolitical risks. The PX supply capacity has increased, but the medium - term inventory is still decreasing. The PTA market has a slight increase, but the supply will increase in the month. The polyester bottle - chip market has a weak trading atmosphere [2] Trading Strategy - The PTA is in a high - level shock, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,782 yuan per ton (up 0.13%), and the intraday trading volume being 1.42 million lots. The PX is greatly affected by crude oil, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,776 yuan per ton (up 0.06%), and the intraday trading volume being 292,600 lots. The PR follows the cost, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,982 yuan per ton (unchanged), and the intraday trading volume being 54,900 lots. Due to the intensification of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the polyester industry chain is expected to have PX, PTA, and PR showing a strong trend [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is expected to remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, and OPEC's production and demand forecasts [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, with low - sulfur fuel oil supply remaining tight and high - sulfur fuel oil supported by demand [3]. - Asphalt is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, but the upward space is limited due to demand constraints [3]. - Polyester products are expected to be volatile. PTA has a weak supply - demand situation and depends on cost changes; EG is under short - term price pressure [4]. - Rubber is expected to be weakly volatile, with supply increasing and demand weak, leading to a downward shift in the price center [6]. - Methanol is expected to have increased volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to control risks [8]. - Polyolefins are expected to have increased price volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short - term [8]. - PVC is expected to be volatile. In the short - term, it is weak under the influence of the off - season, but the long - term multi - empty situation is changing [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices opened high and closed low. WTI July contract closed down $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a 1.66% decline; Brent August contract closed down $1.00 to $73.23 per barrel, a 1.35% decline. SC2507 closed at 530.4 yuan/barrel, down 10.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.94% decline. OPEC+ crude oil daily production in May averaged 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April. OPEC maintained its 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecasts [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.38% to 3,276 yuan/ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2508 rose 1.28% to 3,874 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is still supported [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.77% to 3,667 yuan/ton. It is expected that refinery复产 will drive a slight increase in production next week, but overall supply remains low. The demand in the north is relatively stable, while that in the south is weak due to rain [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.33% at 4,766 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed up 0.92% at 4,374 yuan/ton. Some Iranian MEG plants have stopped production, and some domestic polyester plants plan to reduce production [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 35 yuan/ton to 13,910 yuan/ton. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade warehouses increased, while that in the bonded area decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,585 yuan/ton. The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO device operation rate is high, and the port inventory increase will slow down. The price has rebounded rapidly due to geopolitical conflicts [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,130 - 7,250 yuan/ton. Due to the high uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts, short - term price volatility will increase, and the long - term fundamentals have not improved significantly [8]. - **PVC**: On Monday, the PVC market in East, North, and South China had slight adjustments. As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term performance is weak [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and related changes of various energy - chemical products on June 17, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [11] 3.3 Market News - Iran has requested Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Turkey, and several European countries to urge President Trump to pressure Israel to achieve a cease - fire. Trump confirmed that Iran hopes to ease the conflict. OPEC expects the global economy to remain strong in the second half of this year and has lowered its forecast for the growth of oil supply from non - OPEC countries in 2026 [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and LPG from 2021 to 2025 [15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, and other products [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the spreads and ratios between different varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [73] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, achievements, and professional qualifications [79]