Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Oscillating operation" [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report believes that the steel market will operate in an oscillating manner, and later attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Key Information - In March, the planned volume of northeast rebar moving south is only 150,000 tons, a year - on - year sharp decline, hitting the largest historical drop. Resource allocation has been comprehensively shrunk, only the North China market is retained, and Beijing accounts for over 75%. The volume of wire rod moving south has slightly increased to 320,000 tons, mainly sent to the East China region. The adjustment of steel mill production structure and the recovery of local demand are the main reasons, and the pattern of steel moving from the north to the south has turned [2] - This week, the supply of five major steel products is 7.9724 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 470 tons; the total inventory is 19.52 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0589 million tons, with an increase rate of 5.7%; the weekly consumption is 6.335 million tons, among which the consumption of building materials has increased by 90.8% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates has increased by 0.3% week - on - week [2] - The steel price continued to oscillate yesterday. The market focus was on the energy and chemical sector, and the black sector was relatively calm. The steel price has been adjusted horizontally in a small range in the past few trading days, and the weekly fundamentals are normal. The turmoil in the Middle East has little impact on the domestic steel sector. Attention should be paid to the demand verification and whether there are major macro - policies during the Two Sessions that will affect the steel price [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry, indicating a cautious outlook with a focus on specific companies that may benefit from rising energy prices [4][6]. Core Insights - The steel market is currently experiencing weak demand recovery, leading to high inventory levels. The industry is expected to gradually enter a demand release phase, driven by increased infrastructure projects and manufacturing recovery, which may stabilize prices [3][4]. - The report highlights that the supply side is constrained by environmental regulations and profit margins, suggesting that supply may not keep pace with demand in the short term, impacting price stability [3][4]. - Companies in the special steel sector, such as Jiuli Special Materials and Changbao Co., are noted for their stable performance amidst the broader market fluctuations, particularly as energy prices rise due to geopolitical tensions [4]. Industry Data Tracking Production Data - The total production of the five major steel products reached 7.9724 million tons, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.047 million tons. The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.2759 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 5.69% [8]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 85.32%, down 2.13 percentage points week-on-week, while the operating rate was 77.71%, down 2.51 percentage points [8]. Consumption Data - The total consumption of the five major steel products was 6.9135 million tons, with notable increases in rebar and wire rod consumption, which rose by 646,800 tons and 196,800 tons respectively week-on-week [8]. Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory reached 19.52 million tons, increasing by 1.0589 million tons week-on-week. Social inventory accounted for 14.0313 million tons, up by 1.0738 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased slightly by 14,900 tons [8]. Profitability - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills was reported at 2,377 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 5 yuan week-on-week. The gross profit margins for various steel products showed variability, with rebar at 72 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled products reported negative margins [8].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Sentiment Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The sentiment model is designed to measure the strength of market sentiment by analyzing factors such as the proportion of limit-up and limit-down stocks, and the profitability of high-frequency trading strategies[12][16] - **Model Construction Process**: The sentiment model is built using factors related to market sentiment, including: - Proportion of net limit-up stocks - Next-day returns of limit-down stocks - Proportion of limit-up stocks - Proportion of limit-down stocks - Returns of high-frequency trading strategies The model assigns scores to these factors, with a maximum score of 5. The sentiment model score for the current period is 0[12][16] - **Model Evaluation**: The sentiment model indicates a weakening of market sentiment, as reflected by the score of 0[12][16] 2. Model Name: Trend Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The trend model aims to capture the directional movement of the market by analyzing price trends and other technical indicators[12] - **Model Construction Process**: The trend model generates signals based on the analysis of market trends. For the current period, the trend model provides a positive signal, indicating an upward trend in the market[12] - **Model Evaluation**: The trend model continues to emit positive signals, suggesting a favorable market trend[12] 3. Model Name: High-Frequency Capital Flow Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses high-frequency capital flow data to generate buy and sell signals for major broad-based indices[12][16] - **Model Construction Process**: The model evaluates the capital flow trends for indices such as CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000. The signals are categorized as aggressive long, aggressive short, conservative long, and conservative short. For the current period, the model emits negative signals for all indices[12][16] - **Model Evaluation**: The high-frequency capital flow model continues to emit negative signals, indicating a bearish outlook for the indices[12][16] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Sentiment Model - Sentiment model score: 0 (out of 5)[12][16] 2. Trend Model - Trend model signal: Positive[12] 3. High-Frequency Capital Flow Model - CSI 300: Aggressive short (-1), Conservative short (-1)[12][16] - CSI 500: Aggressive short (-1), Conservative short (-1)[12][16] - CSI 1000: Aggressive short (-1), Conservative short (-1)[12][16] - CSI 2000: Aggressive short (-1), Conservative short (-1)[12][16] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Small-Cap Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the performance and crowding of small-cap stocks[17][19] - **Factor Construction Process**: The small-cap factor's crowding is assessed using four metrics: - Valuation spread - Pairwise correlation - Market volatility - Return reversal The composite score for the small-cap factor is -0.06[17][19] - **Factor Evaluation**: The small-cap factor shows a slight decline in crowding, as indicated by the composite score[17][19] 2. Factor Name: Low-Valuation Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the performance and crowding of low-valuation stocks[17][19] - **Factor Construction Process**: The low-valuation factor's crowding is assessed using the same four metrics as the small-cap factor. The composite score for the low-valuation factor is -0.67[17][19] - **Factor Evaluation**: The low-valuation factor exhibits a higher level of crowding, as reflected by the negative composite score[17][19] 3. Factor Name: High-Profitability Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the performance and crowding of high-profitability stocks[17][19] - **Factor Construction Process**: The high-profitability factor's crowding is assessed using the same four metrics. The composite score for the high-profitability factor is 0.13[17][19] - **Factor Evaluation**: The high-profitability factor shows a moderate level of crowding, with a positive composite score[17][19] 4. Factor Name: High-Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the performance and crowding of high-growth stocks[17][19] - **Factor Construction Process**: The high-growth factor's crowding is assessed using the same four metrics. The composite score for the high-growth factor is 0.21[17][19] - **Factor Evaluation**: The high-growth factor demonstrates a relatively low level of crowding, as indicated by the positive composite score[17][19] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Small-Cap Factor - Composite crowding score: -0.06[17][19] 2. Low-Valuation Factor - Composite crowding score: -0.67[17][19] 3. High-Profitability Factor - Composite crowding score: 0.13[17][19] 4. High-Growth Factor - Composite crowding score: 0.21[17][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - In the first week of March, after the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work accelerated further. However, the low - temperature and snowy weather in the north affected the start - up and resumption of work. The labor attendance rate was still strong year - on - year, indicating that major project investments in March might be building up momentum [3][32]. - In terms of inflation, food prices continued to decline after the Spring Festival. In terms of exports, due to geopolitical factors, fuel prices rose significantly, shipping capacity was affected, and container shipping prices generally increased significantly. In terms of investment, the social inventory of rebar continued to accumulate, the price weakened slightly, the downstream procurement demand was released orderly, and the physical work volume indicators had not yet stabilized significantly. In the real estate sector, the transactions of new and second - hand houses continued to rise, but the year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar decreased [3][32]. - For the bond market, the peak season starts in March. Due to the concentrated impact of work resumption this month and the possible sprint effect of the economy at the end of the quarter, an improvement in high - frequency data can be expected. This week, under the influence of the escalation of the US - Iran situation, energy prices such as crude oil rose significantly, intensifying market concerns about inflation. The cost of export container shipping prices also began to rise, and attention should be paid to the short - term suppression and fluctuations of shipping price changes on export demand. Domestically, the economic targets and policy combinations of the Two Sessions basically met expectations, the target growth rate was adjusted to a more neutral and reasonable range, and the probability of marginal stimulus decreased relatively. In addition, the PMI in February announced this week further declined due to the Spring Festival holiday, but it should be noted that in years when the Spring Festival falls in the middle or late February, the PMI in March often rebounds significantly, and the price sub - item last month was not weak. Short - term attention should continue to be paid to the evolution of inflation expectations [3][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory (1) Inflation - related: Food prices are accelerating downward - The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 3.9% week - on - week, and the vegetable price decreased by 4.1% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, food prices are accelerating downward. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 2.2% and 2.5% respectively week - on - week [8]. (2) Import and export - related: Geopolitical situation escalates, and freight rates are accelerating upward - The comprehensive container shipping index accelerated upward due to geopolitical factors. This week, the CCFI index increased by 0.9% week - on - week, and the SCFI increased by 11.7% week - on - week, showing an accelerating upward trend. The export container shipping market was affected by the sharp escalation of the geopolitical situation, and the freight rates of relevant routes fluctuated more severely, with the comprehensive index rising. Among them, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to the basic ports in the Mediterranean increased by 2.4% week - on - week, and the freight rates to the West and East coasts of the United States increased by 4.5% and 1.0% respectively [9]. - In terms of port transportation volume, from February 21st to March 1st, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 6.4% and 25.2% respectively week - on - week, and the year - on - year increase for a single week was 6.3% and - 6.4% respectively. Overall, the resumption of work this year is relatively fast, and the year - on - year performance is still not weak under the influence of the Spring Festival misalignment [9]. - The BDI and CDFI indices accelerated upward. Affected by the US - Iran conflict, international fuel prices rose significantly, the ship operating cost increased, driving the daily rent and freight rates in the international dry bulk shipping market to rise significantly across the board. The BDI and CDFI indices increased by 1.8% and 8.1% respectively week - on - week [9]. (3) Industry - related: The resumption of work is accelerating further - Coal prices continued to rise. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.9% week - on - week, with the same increase as the previous week. The low - temperature and snowy weather in the north led to a temporary rebound in the residential heating electricity load. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work and production in various places advanced, and the downstream replenishment and industrial electricity demand increased, supporting the continued rise of coal prices [15]. - The price of rebar weakened marginally. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the social inventory of rebar increased by 12.4% week - on - week, continuing to accumulate at a relatively fast pace. This week, the resumption of work at construction sites accelerated, and terminal procurement gradually recovered [15]. - The asphalt production rate rebounded slightly. This week, the asphalt plant production rate increased by 1.9 percentage points week - on - week to 23.3%, but it was still at a seasonal low [15]. - The copper price decreased slightly. This week, the average price of copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals market decreased by 0.4% week - on - week. The continued escalation of the US - Iran conflict led to a risk of energy supply disruption, suppressing market risk appetite and increasing risk - aversion sentiment, causing the copper price to decline week - on - week [18]. - The glass price remained stable, and downstream demand still needed to be repaired. This week, the glass market price was basically stable, the production and sales performance was average, the inventory in various places was still accumulating, the downstream procurement demand had not fully recovered, and the upward momentum of the spot price was limited. The South China glass futures price decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, also affected by risk sentiment [18]. (4) Investment - related: Real estate transactions continue to heat up - The cement price continued to decline. This week, the cement price index decreased by 0.2% compared with before the Spring Festival, continuing the downward trend. As of March 4th (the 16th day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of construction sites across the country was 23.5%, the same as the year - on - year in the lunar calendar, and the labor attendance rate was 29.7%, 2.2 percentage points higher than the year - on - year in the lunar calendar. Among them, the year - on - year in the lunar calendar for real estate and non - real estate projects was 1.5 percentage points higher and 0.3 percentage points lower respectively. Overall, the resumption of work this week did not show a significant year - on - year improvement, which might be related to the suspension of some projects due to the snowy weather in the north. However, the labor attendance rate continued to improve, mainly supported by funds for projects such as guaranteed housing delivery, water conservancy, and high - speed railways [19][22]. - The transactions of new houses continued to recover seasonally, but the year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar narrowed. This week (as of Friday), the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities increased by 65.6% week - on - week. Aligned with the Spring Festival, as of March 6th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities (7 - day rolling sum) was 1.2896 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%, and the year - on - year increase narrowed [27]. - The transactions of second - hand houses increased year - on - year at a relatively fast pace. This week (as of Friday), the transaction area of second - hand houses in 17 cities increased by 82% year - on - year. Aligned with the Spring Festival, as of March 6th, the transaction area of second - hand houses (7 - day rolling sum) was 115,000 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 23.3%, generally remaining strong [27]. (5) Consumption: The US - Iran conflict escalates, and oil prices are accelerating upward - The subway passenger volume in 25 cities accelerated its recovery. From last Saturday to this Friday, the average daily subway passenger volume in 25 cities was 3.163 million person - times, a week - on - week increase of 19.2%. The resumption of work accelerated further around the Lantern Festival. According to the Baidu Migration Scale Index, as of March 6th, the year - on - year travel decreased by 1.6%. The misalignment of the resumption of work rhythm after the holiday led to a high base, and the year - on - year performance began to weaken [30]. - Affected by the geopolitical situation, international oil prices continued to rise. As of March 6th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 27.9% and 35.6% respectively week - on - week compared with last Friday, showing an accelerating upward trend. The continued escalation of the US - Iran situation led to a decrease in the passage capacity of the Strait of Hormuz, increasing the uncertainty of global energy supply and pushing up oil prices to strengthen rapidly [30].

Core Viewpoint - The transition from "energy consumption dual control" to "carbon emission dual control" is driven by the diminishing applicability of the former policy and the need for more precise management of carbon emissions to meet carbon neutrality goals [1][7]. Group 1: Reasons for Transition - The "energy consumption dual control" policy has shown diminishing returns, with energy intensity decreasing but further reductions becoming increasingly difficult [1][7]. - Shifting focus from energy consumption to carbon emissions allows for better alignment with the dual carbon goals, facilitating the integration of clean energy sources like wind and solar power [7][8]. Group 2: Policy Implementation and Goals - The government aims to reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP by approximately 3.8% this year, as part of a broader strategy to achieve peak carbon emissions before 2030 [2]. - The "carbon emission dual control" system emphasizes both total carbon emissions and intensity, aiming to decouple economic growth from carbon emissions and promote green energy industries [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Impact - High-energy-consuming industries, such as steel and petrochemicals, have been significantly affected by the "energy consumption dual control" policy, which has driven technological upgrades and the elimination of outdated capacities [4][12]. - The transition to "carbon emission dual control" presents both opportunities and challenges for these industries, necessitating investments in low-carbon technologies and improved carbon accounting systems [11][12]. Group 4: Carbon Market Dynamics - Companies view participation in the carbon market as a crucial strategy for addressing "carbon emission dual control," with higher carbon prices incentivizing reductions in emissions [5][14]. - The carbon market's dynamics, including fluctuating carbon prices, will influence companies' investment decisions in carbon reduction technologies [14][15]. Group 5: Data Governance and Accounting - A robust carbon data governance system is essential for the successful implementation of "carbon emission dual control," requiring improvements in carbon accounting methods and data sharing across sectors [17][18]. - The complexity of carbon accounting necessitates detailed tracking of emissions across the entire production process, which poses challenges for many companies [19].

一到年关，南京就变成了金陵。 过去的春节假期，南京城被挤得水泄不通，明孝陵的游客多得令网友感叹："朱元璋来了都得排队。"这 座本就名满天下的六朝古都，叠加了苏超的热度、秦淮灯会的招牌，一时间满城烟火，人声鼎沸。 作者 | 张来 编辑 | 江江 视觉 | 诺言 其实，就算不是旅游旺季，南京似乎也总是在话题中心。 自从2016年，英国作家阿克罗伊德的《伦敦传》被引进，中国便掀起了一阵为城市写书立传的风潮。几 年间，北京、上海、成都纷纷有了自己的城市传记。但让人记忆最深刻的，还要属叶兆言的《南京 传》。 叶兆言《南京传》 倒不是因为《南京传》出得早。而是因为，南京这座城市的往事，实在太多，太重，也太复杂了。如果 非要把城市当作一个人物看待，南京作为中国历史上数一数二的"天选之子"，绝对充满叙事的张力。 但也正因如此，人们对南京的记忆，似乎一直停留在江南历史、秦淮灯影，却忽视了它在现代的语境 里，到底长什么模样？ 今年2月初，盐财经记者走访南京，发现了一个与"金陵"意象截然不同的"新南京"。 在中国的区域经济版图里，南京的位置向来有点微妙，因其虽是省会，但远离上海大都市圈，辐射力一 直被压制。不可否认，过去几年里，江 ...

Core Insights - The market is experiencing wide fluctuations, with some indices showing signs of divergence. A and H shares are expected to undergo further adjustments due to the complex evolution of the Middle East situation and global asset price volatility. The A-share weighted index is gradually stabilizing after sufficient structural adjustments, while some growth indices may stabilize after April due to significant gains and earnings pressure from the reporting season [1][4][44] Weekly Market Overview - The market saw wide fluctuations from March 2 to March 6, with major indices mostly retreating. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 fell by 0.93%, 1.54%, and 1.07% respectively. Growth indices like CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 dropped by 3.44%, 3.64%, and 3.53%, showing daily MACD divergence [11][42] - The energy sector, both traditional and renewable, showed strong performance, while technology sectors faced declines. Traditional energy stocks like oil and coal rose by 8.06% and 3.79%, while renewable energy stocks like electric equipment increased by 0.55%. In contrast, technology-related sectors such as media, computing, and electronics saw declines of 6.98%, 5.29%, and 5.07% respectively [12][43] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.62 trillion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous week. The main futures contracts were mostly in a state of contango, indicating a positive market sentiment [19][28] Fund Flows - As of March 5, the margin trading balance was 2.65 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous week, with the proportion of financing purchases rising to 10.28%. The stock ETF saw a net inflow of 13.56 billion yuan, with the most significant inflow in the metals sector ETF [28][33] Valuation Insights - The dynamic valuation model indicates that the overall market index valuations are reasonable, while the ChiNext index is relatively undervalued. As of March 6, the PE-TTM for the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.12, at the 99.6 percentile, while the ChiNext index was at 41.71, at the 46.08 percentile [36][39]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year" period has seen significant achievements in Shanxi's development, with economic stability and progress in high-quality development, resource-based economic transformation, and innovation integration [8][9] - The "15th Five-Year" period is critical for Shanxi to advance towards modernization, focusing on high-quality development and deepening transformation [10][11] - The overall development environment for Shanxi is more favorable than challenging, with strong support from national policies and strategic missions [12][13] Summary by Sections Achievements During the 14th Five-Year Plan - Economic growth has been steady, with GDP reaching new heights and significant progress in high-quality development [8] - The province has made strides in energy security, technological innovation, and comprehensive reforms, enhancing its competitive edge [9] Key Requirements and Strategic Positioning for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The period is essential for achieving breakthroughs in resource-based economic transformation and narrowing the gap with national averages in income and innovation [10][11] - Shanxi aims to build a modern industrial system that reflects its characteristics and advantages, focusing on energy revolution and ecological protection [16][17] Major Goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan - High-quality development is expected to yield significant results, with improvements in productivity, consumer spending, and industrial modernization [22] - The transition of the resource-based economy is anticipated to progress significantly, with advancements in energy transition and the emergence of new pillar industries [22][23] Focus on Energy Transition and Industrial Upgrade - Shanxi is committed to deepening energy reforms and exploring new paths for energy transition, aiming to shift from a coal-dominated economy to a diversified energy powerhouse [26][27] - The province will enhance traditional industries and foster emerging sectors, including advanced manufacturing and new materials [30][31] Promotion of Cultural Tourism and Agriculture - The report emphasizes the integration of cultural tourism with local resources to create a robust tourism industry, enhancing Shanxi's cultural influence [20][32] - Agricultural development will focus on organic and high-efficiency practices, promoting local specialties and deep processing of agricultural products [30][32] Enhancing Innovation and Talent Development - The report highlights the importance of fostering an innovation ecosystem that integrates education, technology, and talent development to support Shanxi's transformation [36][39] - Strengthening the collaboration between educational institutions and industries is crucial for cultivating a skilled workforce [39][40]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen significant achievements in Jiangxi's economic and social development, with GDP reaching approximately 3.6 trillion yuan and per capita GDP surpassing 10,000 USD, indicating a solid foundation for high-quality development [7][8] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by complex changes in the development environment, with both opportunities and challenges present, but the long-term positive trend remains unchanged [9][10] - The overall goal for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is to achieve high-quality development, with key indicators expected to grow faster than the national average, and a focus on innovation and modernization of the industrial system [12][11] Summary by Sections Economic and Social Development - Jiangxi's economic growth has been steady, with a focus on high-quality development and modernization of the manufacturing sector through the "1269" action plan [7][12] - The province aims to enhance its innovation capabilities, with significant increases in the number of high-value patents and the establishment of national-level innovation centers [8][12] Industrial Development - The report emphasizes the need to optimize traditional industries and promote emerging sectors such as electronic information, new energy, and biomedicine, aiming to create new economic growth points [16][17] - There is a strong focus on developing industrial clusters and enhancing the integration of manufacturing and services to improve overall competitiveness [18][19] Technological Innovation - The report outlines plans to strengthen the technological innovation system, enhance research capabilities, and promote the integration of technology and industry [20][21] - It highlights the importance of fostering a collaborative environment between enterprises, research institutions, and universities to drive innovation [22][23] Infrastructure and Investment - The report calls for the construction of a modern infrastructure system, focusing on transportation, energy, and digital infrastructure to support economic growth [29][30] - It emphasizes the need for effective investment strategies to stimulate economic activity and enhance public services [28][31] Agricultural Modernization - The report stresses the importance of agricultural modernization and rural revitalization, aiming to improve agricultural productivity and rural living conditions [42][43] - It highlights the need for policies that support farmers and enhance the agricultural value chain [44][46] Regional Development - The report advocates for a coordinated regional development strategy, promoting collaboration among different regions to leverage their comparative advantages [48][49] - It emphasizes the importance of urbanization and the development of county economies to enhance overall regional competitiveness [50][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series commodity futures are expected to turn from weak to strong after early March. Although the 4 - year - and - 10 - month decline cycle may be approaching an end, the subsequent rebound path remains unclear. Investors or operators should prepare for long - term market fluctuations [9][38]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to rise due to the combined effects of cost and demand. The high international energy prices and the expected resumption of production by downstream steel mills will support the prices [10][56]. - The iron ore price is expected to turn from weak to strong. Although the supply is relatively tight in the first quarter and the demand faces some policy pressure during the Two Sessions, the overall resumption of production is expected to accelerate. However, the high port inventory and the expected increase in annual supply will limit the upside space of the iron ore price [12][88]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black Variety Strategy Recommendations | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Single - side Strategy | RB2605 | 3088 | Oscillating and Bullish | Five major steel products' weekly output returns to a low level, weekly demand recovers to the pre - Spring Festival level, and the low steel output will conflict with the warming spring demand [6]. | | | HC2605 | 3230 | Oscillating and Bullish | The second round of spot price increase of coke was partially implemented on March 6, steel mills' coke inventory decreased significantly, port and coking enterprise coke inventory increased, the tense situation in the Middle East led to a significant increase in international energy prices, and the coking coal and coke market was strengthened by the uncertainty of international energy supply [6]. | | | J2605 | 1695.5 | Oscillating and Bullish | The tense situation in the Middle East led to a significant increase in international energy prices, and the coking coal and coke market was strengthened by the uncertainty of international energy supply. The steel mills' and coking plants' coking coal inventory decreased significantly in the past two weeks [6]. | | | JM2605 | 1123 | Oscillating and Bullish | Similar to J2605, the tense situation in the Middle East and the significant decline in coking coal inventory of steel mills and coking plants [6]. | | Inter - period Arbitrage | I2605 | 772 | Turning from Weak to Strong | The shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil decreased, the output of five major steel products increased slightly, demand improved, the daily average pig iron output decreased and may rebound after the Two Sessions, steel mills' inventory decreased naturally, and port inventory remained at a high level [6]. | 3.2 Steel 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On March 6, the prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market mostly declined or slightly increased. The price of 20mm grade - 3 rebar in the main market decreased by 20 yuan/ton to increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in the main market decreased by 10 yuan/ton to increased by 10 yuan/ton [13]. - **Blast Furnace and Crude Steel Production**: On March 6, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide decreased significantly (down 2.13 percentage points to 85.32%). The average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises in mid - February increased for two consecutive ten - day periods and reached a new high since mid - October last year (up 8.34 tons or 4.29% to 202.95 tons compared with early February) [13]. - **Pig Iron Production and Electric Furnace Production**: On March 6, the national daily average pig iron output decreased significantly and gave back the increase since late January (down 5.69 tons or 2.44% to 227.59 tons). The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased significantly from the lowest level since mid - February last year (up 13.36 percentage points to 20.71%) [17]. - **Output and Inventory of Five Major Steel Products**: On March 6, the weekly output of rebar of major steel mills nationwide increased from the lowest level since early September 2024 (up 8.21 tons or 4.97% to 173.31 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil of major steel mills decreased for two consecutive weeks from the highest level since mid - December last year (down 8.50 tons or 2.75% to 301.11 tons). The rebar inventory of major steel mills increased for seven consecutive weeks and reached a new high since late February last year (up 5.09 tons or 2.19% to 237.93 tons), and the hot - rolled coil inventory of major steel mills decreased from the highest level since mid - February last year (down 4.70 tons or 4.96% to 90.08 tons) [18]. - **Social Inventory**: On March 6, the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities increased for nine consecutive weeks from the lowest level since early January last year and reached a new high since mid - May 2024 (up 69.99 tons or 12.33% to 637.75 tons). The social inventory of hot - rolled coil in 33 cities increased for five consecutive weeks from the lowest level since late August last year and reached a new high since mid - April 2020 (up 24.24 tons or 6.78% to 381.61 tons) [22]. - **Downstream Demand**: From January to December last year, the national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year (the decline increased by 1.3 percentage points compared with January to November last year). The national automobile production increased by 9.8% year - on - year (the increase narrowed by 1.0 percentage point compared with January to November last year). The national metal - cutting machine tool production increased by 9.7% year - on - year (the increase narrowed by 3.0 percentage points compared with January to November last year). The production of air conditioners, household refrigerators, and household washing machines increased by 0.7%, 1.6%, and 4.8% respectively year - on - year (decreased by 0.9, increased by 0.4, and decreased by 1.5 percentage points respectively compared with January to November last year) [22]. - **Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit**: On March 6, the apparent consumption of rebar increased significantly from the lowest level since late February 2024 (up 64.68 tons or 192.79% to 98.23 tons), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil rebounded (up 13.20 tons or 4.92% to 281.57 tons). The disk profit of the rebar 2605 contract showed a significant increase in the loss (down 43.4 yuan/ton to - 295.0 yuan/ton) [28]. - **Spot Rebar Gross Profit per Ton**: On March 6, the gross profit per ton of long - process steel mills' rebar calculated by the main spot prices showed an increase in the loss for two consecutive weeks (down 32.4 yuan/ton to - 90.8 yuan/ton), and the gross profit per ton of short - process steel mills' rebar (at normal electricity price) increased in the loss for two consecutive weeks (down 10.0 yuan/ton to - 104.4 yuan/ton) [33]. 3.2.2 Conclusions and Suggestions - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: After early March, the black - series commodity futures are expected to turn from weak to strong. Although the 4 - year - and - 10 - month decline cycle may be approaching an end, the subsequent rebound path remains unclear, and investors or operators should prepare for long - term market fluctuations [35][38]. - **Basis between Futures and Spot**: On March 6, the basis of rebar narrowed for two consecutive weeks, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70 - 140 yuan/ton in the future. The basis of hot - rolled coil also narrowed for two consecutive weeks, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of - 30 - 30 yuan/ton in the future [39][41]. 3.3 Coke and Coking Coal 3.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On March 6, the prices of major coke in the spot market were basically stable, and the prices of major coking coal in some markets decreased. The price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in the main market remained unchanged, and the aggregated price of some main coking coal markets decreased by 40 yuan/ton to remained unchanged [43]. - **Weekly Output and Capacity Utilization**: On March 6, the daily average coke output of 230 independent coking plants nationwide decreased from the highest level since mid - December last year (down 0.38 tons or 0.75% to 50.39 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants decreased from the highest level since late October last year (down 0.54 percentage points to 72.29%). The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises decreased for two consecutive weeks (down 0.10 tons or 0.21% to 47.00 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises decreased for two consecutive weeks (down 0.20 percentage points to 85.89%) [43]. - **Inventory and Coking Plant Profit**: On March 6, the coke inventory at ports increased after two consecutive weeks of decline (up 6.01 tons or 3.05% to 203.11 tons). The coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased for three consecutive weeks from the highest level since early February last year (down 3.85 tons or 0.57% to 671.26 tons). The coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a new high since early July last year (up 1.01 tons or 1.62% to 63.20 tons). The average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises turned from loss to profit after nine consecutive weeks of loss (up 24 yuan to 17 yuan) [47]. - **Output, Operating Rate, and Inventory of Sample Mines**: On March 6, the daily average clean coal output of 523 sample mines increased significantly for two consecutive weeks from the lowest level since January 2021 (up 9.88 tons or 15.22% to 74.78 tons), and the operating rate of 523 sample mines increased significantly for two consecutive weeks from the lowest level since January 2021 (up 14.08 percentage points to 82.32%). The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased for two consecutive weeks and reached a new high since mid - January (up 28.60 tons or 11.10% to 286.26 tons), and the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased significantly (up 15.70 tons or 2.92% to 552.89 tons) [48]. - **Monthly Import and Weekly Inventory of Coking Coal**: From January to December last year, China's coking coal imports were 1.1863 billion tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.66% in absolute value, and the decline narrowed by 3.01 percentage points compared with January to November last year). On March 6, the coking coal inventory at ports decreased (down 4.27 tons or 1.57% to 267.70 tons). The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants decreased significantly for three consecutive weeks and reached a new low since mid - September last year (down 33.31 tons or 4.02% to 796.15 tons). The coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased significantly for three consecutive weeks and reached a new low since late June last year (down 16.82 tons or 2.12% to 775.64 tons) [52]. - **Monthly Output of Raw Coal and Coke**: From January to December last year, China's raw coal output was 4.832 billion tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.53% in absolute value, and the increase narrowed by 0.31 percentage point compared with January to November last year). China's coke output was 504 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.03% in absolute value, and the increase narrowed by 0.16 percentage point compared with January to November last year) [52]. 3.3.2 Conclusions and Suggestions The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to rise due to the combined effects of cost and demand. The high international energy prices and the expected resumption of production by downstream steel mills will support the prices [56]. 3.4 Iron Ore 3.4.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: As of March 5, the 62% Platts iron ore index rebounded for two consecutive weeks (up 1.6 dollars/ton or 1.60% to 101.35 dollars/ton). As of March 6, the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port rebounded slightly (up 14 yuan/ton or 1.87% to 763 yuan/ton). Among high - grade ores, the spread between 65% Carajas fines and PB fines remained unchanged at 131 yuan/ton, and the spread between 62.5% PB lumps and PB fines widened (up 3 yuan/ton to 113 yuan/ton). Among low - grade ores, the spread between 60.5% Jinbuba fines and PB fines remained unchanged at - 48 yuan/ton, and the spread between 56.5% Super Special fines and PB fines widened (down 3 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton) [57]. - **Inventory and Port Clearance Volume**: On March 6, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to increase, up 25.90 tons to 17117.86 tons. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports rebounded (up 12.60 tons to 311.08 tons). The available days of imported ore inventory of steel mills remained unchanged at 23 days. The sintered powder ore inventory of imported ore of 64 sample steel mills decreased (down 54.14 tons or 3.96% to 1314.02 tons), and the sintered powder ore inventory of domestic ore of 64 sample steel mills decreased (down 4.80 tons or 5.89% to 76.74 tons) [63]. - **Shipment and Arrival**: In the week of February 27, the iron ore shipment from Australia (19 ports) was 1879.7 tons, 89.3 tons less than the previous week, and the shipment from Australia to China was 1509.2 tons, 158.1 tons less than the previous week. The shipment from Brazil was 737.7 tons, 51.1 tons more than the previous week. The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 2146.9 tons, 5.5 tons less than the previous week, at a relatively low level. In terms of monthly cumulative data, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil in the past four weeks were 9244.8 tons, 244 tons less than the previous four - week period, a decrease of 2.57%. The shipment from Australia to China was 5567.6 tons, accounting for 84.91% of Australia's total shipments, 364.3 tons less than the previous four - week period. The arrival volume in the past four weeks was 9078.6 tons, 1516.2 tons or 14.31% less than the previous four - week period. It is expected that the subsequent shipments may recover slightly, but affected by weather factors in the first quarter, the overall level will be relatively low. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival volume is expected to remain at a low level in early March [65]. - **Domestic Ore Output and Operation**: From January to December 2025, the domestic iron ore output was 984 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.59% (adjusted), and the decline increased by 2.58 percentage points compared with January to November 2025. As of March 6, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises rebounded (up 2.71 percentage points to 58.05% compared with the previous week). Affected by a local gold mine accident before the Spring Festival, some private mines in Shandong are still shut down, and the resumption time has been postponed. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, some mines are expected to shut down temporarily. It is expected that the iron concentrate output