Group 1 - The current performance of the liquor market is influenced by external interventions, leading to a halt in the downward trend, but further declines may still occur [1] - The Hong Kong stock market has been stagnant, trading within the range of 3200 to 3400 points for eight months, causing widespread pessimism among investors [1] - The A-share market is expected to experience a rebound, particularly if capital flows from the Hong Kong market into A-shares, potentially leading to a simultaneous surge in both markets [3] Group 2 - The current market conditions may replicate the "924 market" scenario, with expectations of reaching above 3500 points, although the scale of the increase may not be as significant [5] - The concentration of trading chips is high, making a direct downward trend less likely, while a rapid upward movement could occur as chips are redistributed [5] - The complexity of individual stock performances is notable, especially in technology sectors where many investors are trapped, indicating that index growth is necessary for volume expansion [5] Group 3 - The market does not exhibit signs of a significant downturn, with expectations of a quick correction followed by a rebound, suggesting a comfortable state for investors holding positions [7] - The current market dynamics indicate that patience is required, as there has not been a substantial rally this year, and maintaining positions is advised [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic environment in China, focusing on industrial growth, consumer spending, and investment trends for 2025. [1][2][8] Core Insights and Arguments - **Industrial Growth**: In May 2025, industrial added value exceeded expectations with a month-on-month growth rate higher than previous years, indicating resilience in the production sector. The probability of GDP growth exceeding 5% in the first half of the year is high. [1][2] - **Investment Trends**: Real estate investment continues to decline, with a drop of 10.7% in May 2025. However, manufacturing and infrastructure investments show growth, with manufacturing up 8.5% and infrastructure up 10.4%. Adjustments in local government debt limits are expected to support major project construction in the second half of the year. [5][8] - **Consumer Spending**: Retail sales growth reached 6.4% year-on-year in May 2025, the first time exceeding 6% since last year. The "trade-in" policy and promotional events significantly boosted sales, particularly in home appliances and communication equipment. [6][9] - **Employment Stability**: The urban surveyed unemployment rate remains stable at 5%, consistent with the previous year, indicating a solid overall employment situation that supports economic development. [7][8] - **Economic Outlook**: The economic growth in the second half of 2025 is expected to be weaker than the first half, but fluctuations are anticipated to be minor. The foundation laid in the first half, along with increased local budgets and expanded major project space, supports the likelihood of achieving annual targets. [8][11] Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Policies**: The "trade-in" policy has led to significant sales, with total sales reaching 1.1 trillion yuan from January to May 2025, supported by approximately 130 billion yuan in fiscal funding. However, some regions have adjusted or paused the policy due to rapid fund usage. [4][10] - **Trade Dynamics**: Exports showed a mixed performance, with a 34.5% decline in exports to the U.S. attributed to extreme tariff impacts. Despite this, the reliance of the U.S. on Chinese imports remains high, suggesting a potential for recovery in trade. [15][16] - **Financial Data**: The growth rate of social financing has narrowed, with weak credit performance. Government bond issuance has become a key factor in supporting the economy, and the financial system's support for the real economy has strengthened. [19][20] - **Macroeconomic Policy**: There is a call for maintaining macroeconomic policy stability while promoting domestic demand to foster long-term growth. The necessity of existing policies is emphasized, even with some economic data exceeding expectations. [21] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and future expectations for the industry.

Economic Overview - In May, external demand showed signs of recovery while internal demand remained mixed, supported by policy measures and holiday effects [3][5] - The industrial added value in May grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 6.1% in April, but still above 5% [5][7] - Service sector production index increased by 6.2% year-on-year, driven by information technology and retail sectors [9] Production Insights - The production recovery was evident, with industrial added value showing a month-on-month increase of 0.61%, higher than the previous month [5][7] - Export-oriented industries and those benefiting from favorable policies exhibited divergent performance, with transportation equipment and electrical machinery facing significant declines [7] - The automotive sector saw a notable rebound, with production growth increasing by 2.4 percentage points, attributed to policy incentives and market demand [7] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in May reached 6.4%, with significant contributions from the "old-for-new" policy and pre-holiday promotions [13][14] - Online retail sales surged by 11.5%, reflecting the impact of early promotions and policy support [14] - Categories benefiting from the "old-for-new" initiative, such as home appliances and communication equipment, experienced substantial growth rates of 53% and 33% respectively [14] Investment Dynamics - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.9% year-on-year in May, marking a decline from 3.6% in April [17][18] - Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments showed weakening trends, with real estate investment declining by 12.0% [17][21] - Infrastructure investment requires acceleration in physical work volume formation, with current construction PMI readings indicating slower growth [18] Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed mixed signals, with sales area and sales revenue declining by 3.3% and 6.0% year-on-year respectively [21] - New housing starts and completion areas also saw significant declines, although the rate of decline has narrowed [21] - The demand side of the real estate market is showing signs of weakening, necessitating ongoing policy support [21]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.7% to close at 24,060.99 points on June 16 [1] - Wanchai International (00898.HK) closed at HKD 0.94 per share, up 10.59%, with a trading volume of 32,000 shares and a turnover of HKD 29,300 [1] - Over the past month, Wanchai International has seen a cumulative increase of 1.14%, while it has a year-to-date decline of 2.27%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 19.11% [1] Group 2 - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, Wanchai International reported total revenue of HKD 265 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 218 million, a year-on-year increase of 31.22% [1] - The gross profit margin for Wanchai International stands at 83.31%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 25.56% [1] - Currently, there are no institutional investment ratings for Wanchai International [2] Group 3 - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the real estate industry is 4.99 times, with a median of -0.14 times [2] - Wanchai International has a P/E ratio of 3.02 times, ranking 9th in the industry [2] - Other companies in the industry include Bestway Global Holdings (01168.HK) and Bestway Holdings (02983.HK), both with P/E ratios of 0.45 times, and Meilian Group (01200.HK) with a P/E ratio of 2.8 times [2]

Core Viewpoint - The training session led by Zhang Ziming aimed to enhance the understanding of AI applications in the real estate sector, improve work efficiency, and drive industry innovation [2][11]. Group 1: AI Development and Applications - Zhang Ziming introduced the evolution of AI technology and its current applications in the real estate industry, highlighting the transition from traditional decision-making AI to generative AI and emerging technologies like the metaverse and Web3 [6]. - The training showcased various AI applications in areas such as architectural design, construction process optimization, market positioning, customer analysis, and smart property management, providing attendees with a clearer understanding of AI's role in real estate [6]. Group 2: DeepSeek AI Product - DeepSeek was presented as a unique domestic AI product, emphasizing its advantages over other AI tools, including its deep thinking model, strong problem-solving capabilities in engineering and science, and a profound understanding of Chinese language and culture [6]. - Attendees experienced practical demonstrations of DeepSeek's capabilities in generating marketing content, formulating marketing strategies, and solving complex problems, which sparked interest in AI technology [6]. Group 3: Research Institute's Contributions - The Unseen AI Research Institute shared its extensive experience and achievements in AI training, solution development, and consulting research [7]. - The institute is committed to cultivating AI innovation talent through deep collaboration with enterprises, governments, and educational institutions, facilitating the application of AI technology across various industries [8]. Group 4: Recommendations for Real Estate Professionals - Zhang Ziming encouraged real estate professionals to actively learn AI technology, understand its basic principles and application scenarios, and utilize AI tools to enhance work efficiency, such as using DeepSeek for precise information searches and generating marketing documents [10]. - Employees were motivated to experiment with AI technology in their work, explore its potential applications in different fields, and discover new business models and solutions [10]. Group 5: Interactive Engagement - The training concluded with an interactive Q&A session where employees engaged with Zhang Ziming on topics related to AI applications in real estate, practical operations of DeepSeek, and personal career development [10].

午后会迎来新行情了 大家，目前还相信牛市吗？ 如果，你不相信牛市肯定就等不到牛市了。证券已经拉升了，牛市旗手已经有一个提前上涨了，关键是等地产、白酒的补涨，只有联动上涨才会有大行情。 不要担心白酒的回调，目前就是用银行、证券的拉升对冲它的下跌，等它跌透了就可以一起拉升了，证券的空间远不止这个，特别是港股证券。 大盘指数还会继续拉升，大家炒股能不能挣钱与大盘指数涨跌关系有限，这是我们指数ETF玩家关心的事情，我们不可能去关注题材、概念、热点、游资、 龙虎榜吧。 大家不相信牛市而踏空行情，又因为不甘心而追涨。指数已经没有问题，关键是自己的选择筹码问题了。结构性行情，一定要踏准筹码节奏。 大盘指数上涨了，一样有很多行业下跌，白酒就是典型，只是它的跌幅太慢了，有人踏空大幅低开，放量跌停就好了。 今日的A股又缩量了，三大指数继续上涨，股票继续普跌。白酒砸盘的情况下，大盘指数震荡向上。证券、医疗再次上涨，港股恒生医疗再次大涨了。 这个位置的行情，我们指数玩家很容易面对，白酒如果跌到浮亏10%的时候补仓就完事了，市场还需要等它止跌反弹，与证券、地产等加速上涨。否则，没 有办法快速拉升上证指数，就不能放量…… 不出意外，接下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production industry has seen an increase in new energy vehicle production and sales, with exports also growing significantly. The service industry should pay attention to the promotion of elderly - care service - related programs [1]. - Upstream, international oil prices have risen slightly, while urea and soda ash prices have declined. In the mid - stream, PX and pig product processing开工率 have increased. Downstream, first - and second - tier city property sales are at a near - three - year low, and domestic flight frequencies have decreased periodically [2][3][4]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Mid - view Event Overview 3.1.1. Production Industry - From January to May, China's automobile production and sales reached 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.7% and 10.9%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million vehicles, growing by 45.2% and 44% year - on - year, accounting for 44% of total new car sales. Automobile exports were 2.49 million vehicles, with new energy vehicle exports at 855,000 vehicles, a 64.6% year - on - year increase [1]. 3.1.2. Service Industry - The International Organization for Standardization has released an international standard on the inclusive digital economy for an aging society led by China, providing specific suggestions for high - frequency digital economy scenarios for the elderly [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have risen slightly. - Chemical: Urea and soda ash prices have declined [2]. 3.2.2. Mid - stream - Chemical: PX开工率 has recovered. - Agriculture: Pig product processing开工率 has increased [3]. 3.2.3. Downstream - Real Estate: First - and second - tier city property sales are the same as last year and at a near - three - year low. - Service: Domestic flight frequencies have decreased periodically [4]. 3.3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3.4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking (as of 6/11) | Industry | Last Year | One Quarter Ago | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 63.38 | 88.71 | 77.76 | 59.48 | 59.28 | 0.70 | | Mining | 35.48 | 25.94 | 47.91 | 38.57 | 39.39 | 9.40 | | Chemical | 67.32 | 72.87 | 63.09 | 21.15 | 50.99 | 0.10 | | Steel | 42.16 | 65.09 |... | 45.94 | 46.91 | 10.50 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 44.71 | 65.43 | 58.77 | 51.36 | 51.00 | 12.00 | | Electronics | 61.94 | 86.94 | 77.65 | 58.50 | 58.89 | 8.40 | | Automobile | 63.19 | 71.17 | 51.29 | 40.74 | 41.64 | 0.70 | | Household Appliances | 42.03 | 60.23 | 53.02 | 45.87 | 46.68 | 12.50 | | Food and Beverage | 42.30 | 54.60 | 45.51 | 35.32 | 36.25 | 2.20 | | Textile and Apparel | 51.27 | 64.99 | 55.00 | 51.41 | 51.69 | 9.10 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 49.82 | 203.78 | 165.50 | 148.84 | 145.95 | 7.10 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 23.69 | 75.25 | 73.82 | 61.08 | 59.40 | 8.60 | |... | 26.29 | 41.31 | 33.99 | 26.24 | 27.04 | 9.80 | | Transportation | 32.99 | 45.47 | 38.14 | 30.12 | 31.18 | 6.10 | | Real Estate | 221.47 | 158.34 | 125.70 | 101.21 | 103.67 | 6.40 | | Commercial Trade | 46.51 | 59.70 | 51.36 | 42.04 | 41.84 | 4.00 | | Leisure Services | 80.78 | 112.28 | 127.15 | 121.37 | 122.09 | 98.10 | | Bank | 27.73 | 36.23 | 19.75 | 19.17 | 18.01 | 4.40 | | Non - bank Finance | 28.71 | 42.60 | 35.76 | 29.23 | 29.51 | 6.80 | | Comprehensive | 69.20 | 59.32 | 51.02 | 41.51 | 42.20 | 1.30 | | Building Materials | 35.82 | 55.75 | 47.38 | 37.31 | 38.25 | 8.10 | | Building Decoration | 43.77 | 66.60 | 56.84 | 59.22 | 60.30 | 28.40 | | Electrical Equipment | 53.06 | 93.59 | 83.42 | 79.80 | 79.15 | 41.80 | | Mechanical Equipment | 32.71 | 51.69 | 48.31 | 42.07 | 43.99 | 24.30 | | Computer | 69.67 | 76.76 | 62.98 | 48.56 | 46.46 | 0.00 | | Media | 227.40 | 53.06 | 46.41 | 38.66 | 39.69 | 1.00 | | Communication | 31.64 | 44.82 | 28.75 | 24.87 | 25.36 | 1.40 | [49] 3.5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking (as of 6/10) | Industry | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 2308.6 | 0.50% | | | Spot price: Eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 6/10 | 5.8 | - 2.02% | | | Spot price: Palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 8630.0 | - 0.07% | | | Spot price: Cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 14623.0 | 0.44% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 6/10 | 20.3 | - 1.41% | | | Spot price: Copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 79293.3 | 1.03% | | | Spot price: Zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 22146.0 | - 2.50% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 20193.3 | 0.28% | | | Spot price: Nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 123000.0 | - 0.52% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 16706.3 | 1.10% | | | Spot price: Rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 3090.2 | 1.29% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price: Iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 746.1 | - 0.56% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 3267.5 | 0.23% | | | Spot price: Glass | Daily | Yuan/sq.m | 6/10 | 13.8 | - 2.82% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 13670.8 | 2.72% | | | China Plastics City price index | Daily | - | 6/10 | 824.4 | - 0.25% | | | Spot price: WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 6/10 | 65.3 | 4.43% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 6/10 | 67.0 | 3.73% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 3998.0 | - 2.01% | | | Coal price: Coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 748.0 | - 0.53% | | | Spot price: PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 4880.5 | - 1.38% | | Chemical | Spot price: Polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 7346.7 | - 0.14% | | | Spot price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 1821.7 | - 3.92% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/10 | 1370.0 | - 4.20% | | | Cement price index: National | Daily | - | 6/10 | 140.9 | 0.84% | | Real Estate | Building materials comprehensive index | Daily | Points | 6/10 | 111.6 | 0.30% | | | Concrete price index: National index | Daily | Points | 6/10 | 99.1 | - 0.24% | [50]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase around the 3400-point level, with significant fluctuations in trading volume, indicating a psychological battle among investors [1][3]. Market Analysis - The market has seen a reduction in trading volume, with approximately 170 billion yuan in volume today, suggesting that large funds are locking in positions rather than selling off [3]. - The 3400-point level is viewed as a short-term target, with expectations for a rebound in sectors such as liquor, real estate, and insurance, which could lead to a larger market rally [3][5]. - The A-share market has lagged behind Hong Kong and U.S. markets, but there is optimism that the index could accelerate its recovery if key sectors reverse their downward trends [5]. Sector Performance - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector has seen a significant drop in trading volume, down by two-thirds compared to March, which raises concerns about its performance [5]. - Other sectors, including rare earths, healthcare, and food and beverage, have shown positive growth, while the liquor sector has also underperformed [5]. Investor Guidance - Investors are advised to maintain a simple holding strategy, focusing on position management and asset allocation, rather than being overly optimistic or pessimistic [7]. - The likelihood of the index continuing to rise is high, with no substantial logic for a major pullback, suggesting that the market may respond positively to favorable news [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reflections and investment strategies of Li Bei, a prominent private equity fund manager, who acknowledges her underperformance over the past two years due to a lack of understanding of domestic policy-making and execution mechanisms [1][6]. Investment Performance - Li Bei admits that her investment performance has been poor in the last two years, missing opportunities in sectors like small-cap stocks, new consumption, technology, and pharmaceuticals, which led to mediocre equity returns [2][3]. - The performance of her fund, the Honghu Zhongyu Macro Hedge Fund, has shown a cumulative return of 121.91% since its inception, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index's 21.94% over the same period, but has lagged in the last two years with a return of -15.63% compared to the index's 0.97% [9]. Investment Strategy - Li Bei emphasizes her commitment to avoiding large positions in pharmaceuticals and new consumption, as well as not participating in small-cap stocks, while focusing on cyclical, high-dividend, and low price-to-book ratio stocks [1][6]. - She proposes three improvement measures: enhancing foreign capital tracking, selecting stocks with alpha potential, and prioritizing safety and risk-reward ratios by choosing low PB and high dividend stocks [3]. Portfolio Composition - Li Bei presents two investment portfolios for consideration, with her preference for Portfolio B, which includes low PB and high dividend stocks, indicating a focus on safety and long-term value [4][5]. - The current asset allocation includes 55%-60% in equities, 10%-15% in gold for hedging against dollar risks, and a focus on low-carry commodities and government bonds [5][6]. Market Analysis - Li Bei reflects on the changing dynamics of policy execution in China, noting a significant decrease in the effectiveness and duration of policy implementation over the past two years, which has contributed to her investment misjudgments [3][8]. - The article highlights the challenges faced by Li Bei in making accurate market predictions, particularly in the context of her macro hedge strategy, which relies heavily on timing and market trend analysis [8].

Group 1 - The A-share market is showing strength, with the index recovering from previous declines, but sectors like liquor and real estate are not performing well [1][3] - The current market rebound to 3400 points is fundamentally different from the previous one, as it lacks the strong upward momentum from liquor and real estate, indicating a more natural market recovery [3][5] - The index's performance is primarily driven by heavyweight sectors, and without the participation of liquor and real estate, further upward movement may be limited [1][3] Group 2 - There are two key signals observed: the index has risen, but many retail investors have not outperformed the index, indicating a disconnect between individual stock performance and index movements [5][7] - The market is experiencing net capital inflow, with major players focusing on broad-based ETFs rather than individual stocks, suggesting a shift in investment strategy [7][8] - The current index levels are 3400 for the Shanghai Composite and 24000 for the Hang Seng Index, reflecting a general upward trend in both markets [5][7]