Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a shift in business paradigms to resist "involution" competition and focus on value creation and high-quality development [2][26]. Group 1: Transition from Scale to Quality - Chinese enterprises have achieved significant growth, with 130 companies entering the Fortune Global 500 this year, but now must transition from speed and scale to quality and efficiency [4][29]. - The criteria for measuring development quality include investment returns, market presence, profitability, employee income, government tax revenue, and environmental improvement [4][29]. - Companies like Midea are focusing on modern governance to ensure stable development, projecting a profit of 38.5 billion yuan in 2024 with a market value of 630 billion yuan [4][29]. Group 2: Focus on Core Competencies - Companies should prioritize strengthening their core business rather than blindly expanding into unrelated areas, as many issues arise from straying from core competencies [6][31]. - The principle of business core focus suggests eliminating non-core and loss-making operations to maintain clarity and efficiency [6][31]. - For instance, CATL focuses solely on its core business of power batteries, projecting a profit of 50.7 billion yuan in 2024 with a market value of 1.8 trillion yuan [6][31]. Group 3: Shift from Management to Strategic Operations - The current era requires businesses to focus on strategic operations rather than just management, emphasizing the importance of making the right business decisions to enhance profitability [7][32]. - Effective leadership involves setting strategic direction and resource acquisition while delegating management tasks to subordinates [7][32]. - The distinction between management and operations is crucial, with a focus on generating revenue and market engagement being paramount [7][32]. Group 4: Value-Driven Pricing Strategies - Companies must transition from cost-based pricing to value-based pricing, focusing on the value delivered to customers rather than merely production costs [13][40]. - The importance of understanding the relationship between price, volume, and cost is highlighted, with a focus on maintaining price stability in over-saturated markets [17][42]. - Successful brands like Pop Mart leverage emotional and social value in their products, achieving significant revenue growth and market capitalization [41]. Group 5: Moving Towards Cooperative Competition - The need for a shift from harmful competition to cooperative competition is emphasized, where companies focus on creating value rather than engaging in destructive price wars [18][43]. - The concept of "prisoner's dilemma" illustrates the need for industry players to prioritize collective industry benefits over individual gains [19][44]. - Promoting a cooperative ecosystem within industries can lead to sustainable growth and mutual benefits for all stakeholders involved [19][44].

Investment Insights - Investment growth in 2025 is expected to decline significantly, with real estate investment projected to drop over 15 percentage points compared to the previous years' average decline of -10% from 2022 to 2024[1] - The central government's fiscal expansion will play a crucial role in stabilizing investment demand, as local financial constraints limit investment capabilities[1] Consumption Trends - Service consumption has shown resilience, increasing from 4.8% at the beginning of the year to 5.4% in November 2025, which is essential for driving overall consumer demand[1] - The decline in real estate sales has led to a noticeable slowdown in goods sales, with retail sales in the post-real estate cycle showing negative growth[1] Economic Outlook - The economic data indicates a continuous slowdown in growth, with investment and retail sales growth reaching their lowest levels since the pandemic[1] - The central economic work conference has proposed to "appropriately increase the scale of central budget investment" to support infrastructure and manufacturing investments[1] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and the possibility of a global recession impacting major economies[1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - environment in 2026 continues to warm up. The combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair change" in the US is conducive to Fed easing, and the quality of January's economic data is expected to return to normal. The "broad fiscal + broad monetary" policy in the US will promote economic prosperity. The ECB maintained interest rates in December and raised GDP forecasts for this year and next, while Japan's interest rate hike was in line with expectations and not a radical tightening, with an upward adjustment of the 2025 GDP growth forecast and maintaining the 2026 forecast [6]. - In November domestically, social retail sales year - on - year was 1.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. Commodity retail continued to weaken, while service consumption improved. Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate continued to decline, but exports were strong [6]. - In asset allocation, the macro - environment is favorable for the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors. For precious metals, the logic for gold's rise is clear and it has a high safety margin, while silver's volatility risk increases after a sharp rise. For non - ferrous metals, there are opportunities to buy on dips for commodities with more supply disruptions like copper, aluminum, and tin, and attention should be paid to lithium carbonate with good supply - demand performance. The domestic equity sector should be defensive at the end of the year and during the policy window period [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures was at 4564.8 with a daily increase of 0.83%, weekly increase of 0.83%, monthly increase of 2.07%, quarterly decrease of 1.15%, and an annual increase of 16.42%. The Shanghai 50 futures was at 3018.4 with a daily increase of 0.40%, weekly increase of 0.40%, monthly increase of 2.01%, quarterly increase of 0.98%, and an annual increase of 12.71%. The CSI 500 futures was at 7123.2 with a daily increase of 0.96%, weekly increase of 0.96%, monthly increase of 4.74%, quarterly decrease of 2.29%, and an annual increase of 25.12%. The CSI 1000 futures was at 7203.6 with a daily increase of 0.87%, weekly increase of 0.87%, monthly increase of 2.53%, quarterly decrease of 2.74%, and an annual increase of 23.17% [2]. - **Bond Futures**: The 2 - year bond futures was at 102.464 with a daily decrease of 0.03%, weekly decrease of 0.03%, monthly increase of 0.08%, quarterly increase of 0.17%, and an annual decrease of 0.50%. The 5 - year bond futures was at 105.86 with a daily decrease of 0.10%, weekly decrease of 0.10%, monthly increase of 0.11%, quarterly increase of 0.32%, and an annual decrease of 0.64%. The 10 - year bond futures was at 107.98 with a daily decrease of 0.16%, weekly decrease of 0.16%, monthly increase of 0.04%, quarterly increase of 0.42%, and an annual decrease of 0.87%. The 30 - year bond futures was at 111.98 with a daily decrease of 0.60%, weekly decrease of 0.60%, monthly decrease of 2.19%, quarterly decrease of 1.40%, and an annual decrease of 5.76% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.7125 with no daily or weekly change, a monthly decrease of 0.73%, quarterly increase of 0.91%, and an annual decrease of 9.01%. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was at 1.1708, with 0 pips change daily and weekly, 107 pips increase monthly, 26 pips decrease quarterly, and 1355 pips increase annually. The US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate was at 157.729, with 0 pips daily change, no weekly change, 1.00% monthly increase, 6.63% quarterly increase, and 0.34% annual increase [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.44 with no daily or weekly change, a 6 - bp monthly decrease, 1 - bp quarterly decrease, and 31 - bp annual decrease. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.83 with a 0.5 - bp daily decrease, no weekly change, 1 - bp monthly decrease, 3 - bp quarterly decrease, and 0.2 - bp annual increase. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.16 with a 4 - bp daily increase, no weekly change, 0.03 - bp monthly increase, no quarterly change, and 39 - bp annual decrease [2]. 3.2 Overseas Commodity Market - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 56.54 with a daily increase of 1.14%, weekly decrease of 1.72%, monthly decrease of 3.32%, quarterly decrease of 9.43%, and an annual decrease of 21.33. ICE Brent crude oil was at 60.12 with a daily increase of 1.20%, weekly decrease of 1.80%, monthly decrease of 3.53%, quarterly decrease of 9.12%, and an annual decrease of 19.664. NYMEX natural gas was at 4.026 with a daily increase of 2.05%, weekly decrease of 1.83%, monthly decrease of 17.19%, quarterly increase of 20.86%, and an annual increase of 10.82% [2]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was at 4368.7 with a daily increase of 0.11%, weekly increase of 0.90%, monthly increase of 2.64%, quarterly increase of 12.38%, and an annual increase of 65.52%. COMEX silver was at 67.395 with a daily increase of 2.97%, weekly increase of 8.55%, monthly increase of 18.06%, quarterly increase of 43.88%, and an annual increase of 130.109 [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, etc. had different price changes. For example, LME copper had a certain increase in some periods, LME aluminum was at 2945 with a daily increase of 0.99%, weekly increase of 2.43%, monthly increase of 2.79%, quarterly increase of 9.60%, and an annual increase of 15.38% [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans were at 1049 with a daily decrease of 0.24%, weekly decrease of 2.53%, monthly decrease of 7.76%, quarterly increase of 4.82%, and an annual increase of 3.86%. CBOT corn was at 443.25 with a daily decrease of 0.17%, weekly increase of 0.62%, monthly decrease of 1.01%, quarterly increase of 6.55%, and an annual decrease of 3.38% [2]. 3.3 Domestic Commodity Market - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line was at 1871.8 with a daily increase of 8.84%, weekly increase of 8.84%, monthly increase of 27.17%, quarterly increase of 13.94%, and an annual decrease of 17.07% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold was at 1000.86 with a daily increase of 2.14%, weekly increase of 2.14%, monthly increase of 4.92%, quarterly increase of 14.15%, and an annual increase of 62.06%. Silver was at 16210 with a daily increase of 5.42%, weekly increase of 5.42%, monthly increase of 27.37%, quarterly increase of 48.06%, and an annual increase of 117.00% [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was at 94320 with a daily increase of 1.22%, weekly increase of 1.22%, monthly increase of 7.92%, quarterly increase of 13.57%, and an annual increase of 27.86%. Aluminum, zinc, and other non - ferrous metals also had their own price change trends [3]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as raw materials like iron ore, coke, and coking coal, had different price fluctuations. For example, rebar was at 3126 with a daily increase of 0.22%, weekly increase of 0.22%, monthly increase of 0.29%, quarterly decrease of 0.06%, and an annual decrease of 5.53% [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, and other energy and chemical products had various price changes. For example, crude oil was at 437.9 with a daily increase of 2.65%, weekly increase of 2.65%, monthly decrease of 3.78%, quarterly decrease of 8.73%, and an annual decrease of 21.79% [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Grains, oils, and livestock products such as soybeans, corn, and hogs had their own price trends. For example, hogs were at 11345 with a daily increase of 0.18%, weekly increase of 0.18%, monthly increase of 0.84%, quarterly decrease of 9.09%, and an annual decrease of 11.37% [3]. 3.4 Sector - by - Sector Short - term Judgments - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options are expected to be volatile, and bond futures are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping European line is expected to be volatile [7]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Some varieties like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals Sector**: Some varieties like PX and PTA are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to decline in a volatile manner, and most are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Some varieties like cotton are expected to be volatile, while others such as hogs and sugar are expected to decline in a volatile manner [9].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and proposed actions to boost consumption, indicating a potential recovery in the construction materials sector in 2026 due to improved fundamentals and valuations [4] - Cement demand is currently under pressure, with a national decline in demand observed, particularly in the housing market, while infrastructure demand shows regional differentiation. The cement industry is expected to see a reduction in overproduction, leading to improved capacity utilization and profit elasticity [4][8] - The glass industry continues to face demand challenges, with high inventory levels among intermediaries and limited improvement in downstream demand. Price fluctuations are expected to remain low due to ongoing supply-demand pressures [5][13] - The fiberglass sector is experiencing stable demand in certain areas, such as wind power and electronics, with expectations for explosive growth driven by AI-related demand [5] - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with strong pricing improvement requests from companies, indicating potential for profit recovery in the latter half of the year [5] Summary by Sections Cement - December marks the onset of the off-peak season in the northern regions, with national demand continuing to decline. The housing market remains weak, while infrastructure demand is driven by policy, showing significant regional differences. The civil market exhibits relatively rigid demand [4][8] - In November 2025, cement production was 154 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline [8] Glass - The glass industry is under pressure, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement and high inventory levels among intermediaries. Supply-side adjustments are expected with the cold repair of five production lines, but overall supply-demand pressures persist [5][13] Fiberglass - Demand in sectors like wind power and electronics remains stable, while traditional demand for coarse sand is slowing. The industry is expected to see growth driven by AI-related demand, with a clear upgrade in product structure [5] Consumer Building Materials - The sector's profitability has reached a low point, with no further downward price pressure expected. Companies are actively seeking price increases, indicating a strong desire for profit improvement [5]

建筑材料行业周报 11 月投资数据仍处筑底过程，关注政策 加码空间及重点工程需求释放 2025 年 12 月 22 日 【投资要点】 【配置建议】 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王翩翩 证书编号：S1160524060001 证券分析师：郁晾 证书编号：S1160524100004 相对指数表现 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 2024/12 2025/6 2025/12 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《中央经济会议定调积极，继续关注地产 链底部反弹机会》 2025.12.15 《万科债务有望逐渐出清，继续看好消费 建材白马价值回归》 2025.12.01 《地产链有望筑底企稳，关注板块弹性及 出海机会》 2025.11.24 《前十月基建投资同比-0.1%，稳增长背景 下看好战略重点工程推进》 2025.11.20 《克而瑞十月百强销售数据环比持稳，继 续看好消费建材白马价值回归》 2025.11.10 行 业 研 究 / 建 筑 材 料 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场行情回顾：上周建材板块上涨 0.92%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.2pct。 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 地产数据环比不悲观 2025 年 12 月 22 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 周观点：（1）11 月地产数据同比来看，如期降幅扩大，但环比来看，除 了拿地金额大幅弱化，地产销售和建安投资仍保持了正常季节性规律。 地产数据分叉值得重视，若能持续则说明地产有企稳迹象。经济工作会 议之后，经济刺激预期有所弱化。美联储议息决议反映出后续降息路径 比较纠结。短期市场或进入震荡期，首先关注红利高息方向，例如兔宝 宝、上峰水泥、塔牌集团、欧普照明、欧派家居等。其次是欧美出口产 业链，例如中国巨石、中材科技、圣晖集成、亚翔集成、爱丽家居、石 头科技、海尔智家等。再次是装修消费方向，例如三棵树、悍高集团、 箭牌家居、兔宝宝、欧派家居等。中长期而言，中国国力的相对上升和 再通胀进程或推动汇率持续升值，消费和科技白马公司值得战略性关 注。（2）科技方面，十五五期间科技自立自强是重中之重。国产半导体 有望加快发展，尤其是先进制程，继续推荐洁净室工程板块，订单均有 高增，例如圣晖集成，建议关注亚翔集成和柏诚股份，受益 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that factors driving the appreciation of the RMB are increasing, leading to a growing market focus on asset allocation in a continuously appreciating RMB environment [1] Group 1: Industry Configuration - In the context of ongoing RMB appreciation, three driving factors for industry configuration are identified: short-term muscle memory, profit margin changes, and policy changes [2] - Approximately 19% of industries are expected to see profit margin improvements due to RMB appreciation, which will attract investor attention [1] Group 2: Beneficial Industries - Beneficial industries from RMB appreciation can be categorized into four main groups: 1. Upstream resources and raw materials, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, basic chemicals, building materials, and semiconductor materials [2] 2. Domestic consumer goods, primarily in agriculture, light manufacturing, and consumer electronics [2] 3. Service-related sectors, such as utilities, transportation, retail (import-based cross-border e-commerce), and social services [2] 4. Manufacturing equipment, mainly in machinery and semiconductor equipment [2]

Group 1 - The market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout, with expectations for A-shares to resonate upward with global markets by 2026, focusing on "technology + overseas expansion" as a continuing theme [1][2] - Current market conditions are characterized by narrow fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as concerns over the AI bubble in the US and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [2][3] - Investor sentiment has recently dropped below 70, indicating a pessimistic outlook that may lead to a slight recovery in sentiment and upward market fluctuations [2] Group 2 - Industry allocation strategies include focusing on high dividend stocks, cyclical sectors, and thematic hotspots such as Hainan's duty-free shopping and nuclear power [2][4] - The anticipated "cross-year-spring" market rally is supported by early policy implementation and increased institutional investment in broad-based ETFs [4][5] - The potential for a structural outperformance in sectors like brokerage and technology is expected, driven by upcoming monetary policy changes and market liquidity improvements [7][8] Group 3 - The ongoing appreciation of the RMB is expected to influence asset allocation, with approximately 19% of industries likely to see profit margin improvements due to currency appreciation [3] - Key sectors benefiting from policy support include AI, aerospace, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals may also see positive impacts [6][9] - The market is expected to experience a "spring rally" driven by favorable valuation levels, liquidity conditions, and catalysts that enhance risk appetite [6][12] Group 4 - The outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from a single narrative to a broader focus on physical demand and domestic policy benefits, with sectors like AI and consumer services poised for recovery [10][13] - Non-bank financials are highlighted as having significant earnings elasticity, while sectors like electric equipment and machinery are expected to benefit from AI investments and export demand [13][14] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment before the anticipated cross-year rally, with a focus on structural opportunities aligned with policy directions and industry trends [11][14]

（来源：新华日报） (图片来源：视觉中国) 2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，也是绿色低碳发展开启新征程的重要一年，作为工业大省的江苏， 如何聚焦"双碳"目标，在精益求精中继续担当作为？ 省工信厅相关负责人表示，将以"双碳"战略实施为"指挥棒"，坚持从头紧起、稳中求进、重点重抓，着 力扬优势补短板强弱项，加快节能降碳、扩绿转型，推动制造业绿色低碳发展不断取得新进展、实现新 突破，确保为"十五五"开好局起好步。重点抓好四个方面—— 着力夯实碳达峰节能基础 能源是绿色低碳发展的"牛鼻子"，减少化石能源消费、降低能源消费强度是推进碳达峰的关键举措、重 要抓手，要以更大力度的节能降碳为碳达峰奠定坚实基础。 持续推进节能降碳改造，聚焦钢铁、建材、石化化工等高耗能行业，摸排"十五五"节能降碳项目清单， 引导企业积极申报节能降碳中央预算内投资专项、超长期特别国债等政策支持，推动企业实施节能降碳 改造与设备更新。高质高效开展节能监管，引导企业对标国际先进水平、行业领先水平实施技术改造， 深入开展工业节能监察。精准精细做好节能服务，围绕重点节能工序工艺、关键节能技术装备、能源管 理和碳管理体系建设，省市联动组织开展工业节能 ...

从销售净利率来看，A股部分行业存在费用控制与需求不足并存的现象 。多数行业销售毛利率下降反映出终端需求弱、价格传导不畅的问题，而销售净利率的回升 则得益于期间费用优化，尤其是财务费用和销售费用。从资产周转率和资产负债率来看，A股行业运营效率有所企稳，同时杠杆维持稳健。资产周转率过去一年整 体回落但Q3边际改善，与产能利用率的回升一致。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 我们聚焦2025Q3万得全A的盈利分析，通过杜邦分解和供需格局等视角，寻找上市公司盈利数据背后的宏观线索，以辅助宏观经济的跟踪与研判，可以发现：1） ROE的企稳主要靠销售净利率提升（费用控制）支撑，但销售毛利率持续承压，说明宏观需求偏弱的背景下企业更多依赖"节流"而非"开源"来稳定盈利；此外，从 资产周转率和资产负债率来看，上市公司运营效率有所改善，同时杠杆水平维持稳定。2）我们通过产能利用率与资本开支/折旧摊销来观察行业供需格局，观察到 17个行业中有10个行业处于产能利用率低且资本开支/折旧摊销低的状态，在宏观上意味着多数行 ...