Investment Rating of the Report The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are trending upward with strong performance, influenced by the risk - aversion sentiment due to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the US. The potential US tariff on Swiss gold imports has significantly increased the premium of COMEX gold over London gold. The short - term trend of the US dollar is weak. The US stock index futures face the need for more data to verify the intensification of economic downward pressure, and there is a risk of correction at the current level. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is relatively tortuous. For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations [14][19][23][31]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US allows 401(k) investors to invest in alternative assets. Trump nominates a new Fed governor. China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons in July. Gold prices are trending upward, and there are arbitrage opportunities due to the widening regional price difference [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Miran is nominated as a Fed governor by Trump. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump nominates Stephen Miran as a Fed governor. The risk in the job market has increased, and inflation expectations have risen in July. The possibility of a Fed rate cut within the year has increased in the short term, but the long - term independence of the Fed is affected. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction [21][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [25][27][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. The sustainability of strong export growth is questionable. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is tortuous, and the timing of going long should be carefully grasped [29][30][31]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China imported 1166.6 million tons of soybeans in July. ANEC expects Brazil to export 815 million tons of soybeans in August. US soybean exports were better than expected, and CBOT soybeans stopped falling and stabilized. The supply in China may tighten in the fourth quarter if no US soybeans are purchased. The operating center of soybean meal futures prices is expected to move up [33][35][37]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - China imported 53.4 million tons of edible vegetable oil in July. The oil market is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillating trend. It is not recommended to enter the market today, and existing long positions can be held [39]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The excavator monthly operation rate in July was 56.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased this week, suppressing the market. Steel prices are driven by policies, but it is difficult for spot prices to rise. It is recommended to be cautious about market rallies [40][41][42]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry increased, and inventory accumulated again. The supply - demand situation does not support the strengthening of the rice - flour price difference, and the regional price difference may be unfavorable to the 09 contract [44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and consumption slightly increased. It is recommended to hold new - crop short positions and pay attention to the weather [47][48][49]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was strong on August 7. The coal price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but it is difficult to continue to rebound. Attention should be paid to the change in daily consumption in mid - August [49]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates in July. The ore price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50][51]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India's cotton planting area in the 25/26 season is 1058.7 million hectares. Vietnamese textile enterprises have weak restocking intentions. Textile and clothing exports declined in July. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have limited room for further decline in the short term and may rebound [52][53][54]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Jinzhong Lingshi market increased. The coking coal market has strong speculation sentiment due to policy and inspection factors, and the impact on the fundamentals depends on further policies [58][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Guangxi postponed the maintenance of a roasting furnace to August 16. The alumina futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Jingao's project is under pre - approval publicity. The spot transaction price has increased, and the polysilicon price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [62][63][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.7 million tons. The supply may increase slightly in August, and the balance sheet may still show inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [65][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper import volume increased in July. A copper mine accident in Chile affected production. The macro - sentiment is favorable to copper prices in the short term, but inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [68][70][71]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons on August 7. The nickel price is difficult to decline deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [73][74][75]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia will invest in a lithium project. The demand is strong in August, and the supply risk remains. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved and take profit on the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [76][77]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Pan American Silver's lead concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The lead price has cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [78][79]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American Silver's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The zinc price may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [80][81][82]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume increased slightly, and the inventory situation changed. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the behavior of factory warehouses [83][84]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The CEA price is oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips cautiously for enterprises with quota demand [85][86]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the inventory increased. The downward space of caustic soda is limited [87][88][89]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [91]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market is locally weak. The PVC price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support from coal [92][93]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX supply may increase, and PTA is in a loss. PX may accumulate inventory in August - September, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [93][94]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The downstream is still in the off - season, and the PTA market is expected to oscillate in the short term [95][96][97]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Jingbo has produced qualified products. The styrene market is expected to oscillate at the current price [99]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. In the medium term, a strategy of short - selling at high prices can be considered for soda ash [100]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased. The glass price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on arbitrage [101][102]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's import and export data from January to July was released. The container freight rate is expected to be weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [103][104].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. With the fading of policy - positive sentiment, the short - term trend is expected to be mainly weak and fluctuating [2]. 3. Detailed Summaries by Section Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high. Downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, and terminal demand weakens. Soda ash factory inventory is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,357 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 102 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the supply - demand imbalance, with policy - positive sentiment fading, soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The peak summer overhaul season is coming, and production will decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high. Downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, reducing demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.95% to 1,357 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped by 4.92% to 1,255 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 104% to - 102 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 22.90 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is 56.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Output**: The weekly industry operating rate is 80.27%, and it is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output is 699,800 tons, with heavy soda ash at 398,700 tons, at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in soda ash production capacity, with 6.4 million tons added in 2023, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and a planned 7.5 million tons in 2025 (actual 1 million tons) [21]. Demand - **Production - Sales Ratio**: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 109.83% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75%. Photovoltaic glass prices are falling, and due to the "anti - involution" policy, production has been cut, and the in - production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [27][30]. Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and is above the 5 - year average [33]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a soda ash annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective capacity, output, apparent supply, total demand, and other indicators over the years [34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry, specifically the soda ash sector, is "Positive" and maintained [15]. Core Insights - The report discusses why soda ash is considered a potential good sector for "anti-involution" in the chemical industry, the impact of real estate downturns on soda ash demand, factors driving capacity reduction in the soda ash industry, the emergence of natural soda ash resources in Inner Mongolia, the current market position of soda ash, the elasticity of listed companies in the sector, and highlights of the leading natural soda ash company, Boyuan Chemical [3][7]. Summary by Sections Why is soda ash considered a potential good sector for "anti-involution"? - Soda ash has a global pricing mechanism, and after recent price declines, it has shown a "sales radius" effect. Domestic overproduction has led to a downturn in market conditions, while downstream applications like photovoltaic glass have significant overseas demand, making it a typical "involution" industry. The price of soda ash has dropped significantly since its peak in 2021, with many leading companies reporting losses in recent quarters. The cost curve for soda ash is steep, indicating a clear competitive disparity among companies, which may lead to market exit for less competitive players. The overall operating rate for soda ash remains around 80%, suggesting limited overcapacity and manageable exit challenges. Additionally, potential policy measures related to energy consumption and facility upgrades could accelerate industry clearing from "involution" [7][27]. How to view the impact of real estate downturn on soda ash? - The demand for soda ash from flat glass is declining, with projections indicating that it will account for about 30% of soda ash demand by 2024. Considering the demand from automotive glass and renovation needs, the impact of real estate completions on soda ash demand is estimated to be around 20%. In a pessimistic scenario where completions drop to 50-60% in 2024, the impact on soda ash demand could be approximately 8-10%. However, emerging sectors such as photovoltaic glass, lithium carbonate, and other long-tail demands are expected to effectively offset the decline in real estate demand [8][28]. What factors may drive capacity reduction in the soda ash industry? - Energy consumption and facility upgrades are seen as key drivers for "anti-involution" in the soda ash sector. The proportion of soda ash production capacity that meets energy efficiency benchmarks is still below the guidelines set by the National Development and Reform Commission. Additionally, 31% of soda ash facilities are over 20 years old, which is relatively high compared to other chemical sub-industries [9][52]. What is the impact of the emergence of natural soda ash resources in Inner Mongolia? - The report estimates that even with the planned production of natural soda ash, synthetic processes will still dominate the market. The pricing is expected to be anchored around the full cost of synthetic processes. The supply increase from the natural soda ash project is not anticipated to impact the market significantly until after 2028 [10][64]. What is the current market position of soda ash? - The current market conditions for soda ash are at a low point, with price differentials nearing historical lows and a safety margin in place. Many related listed companies have reported losses in recent quarters, with companies like Shandong Haihua, Xue Tian Salt Industry, and Zhongyan Chemical experiencing declining performance [11][44]. How elastic are listed companies in the soda ash sector, and what are the main recommended stocks? - At the industry bottom, the report recommends investing in Boyuan Chemical, a leading natural soda ash company with cost advantages. It also suggests monitoring the progress of the Naimanqi soda ash project by Zhongyan Chemical and potential developments regarding the leading natural soda ash company [12][62]. What are the highlights of the leading natural soda ash company, Boyuan Chemical? - Boyuan Chemical has three main highlights: growth potential, high dividend payout potential due to cost advantages, and price elasticity options. The company has been generous with dividends, with a payout ratio exceeding 5% in 2024, and has shown a declining debt ratio, indicating strong future cash flow. With the second phase of its project expected to contribute additional capacity, the company is positioned for substantial dividend potential and price elasticity [13][66].

黑色建材日报 2025-08-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3231 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.09%）。当日注册仓单 93491 吨, 环 比增加 4235 吨。主力合约持仓量为 162.8167 万手，环比减少 24402 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3360 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3440 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.31%）。 当日注册仓单 70915 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 142.8587 万手，环比减少 31588 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3470 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The long - term view on oil prices is bearish, with Brent expected to trade in the range of $66.5 - 68 per barrel in the short term. The overall supply - demand pressure for plastics and PP remains large, and their prices are expected to be weak and volatile. PVC and caustic soda also face supply - demand pressure, and short positions are recommended. For some products like fuel oil, a wait - and - see approach is advised, while for others, different trading strategies such as short - selling at high prices are proposed according to their supply - demand situations [2][22][24] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 contract closed at $64.35, down $0.81 per barrel (-1.24%); Brent2510 contract closed at $66.89, down $0.75 per barrel (-1.11%); SC main contract 2509 fell 4.9 to 504.2 yuan per barrel, and dropped 6.2 to 498 yuan per barrel in the night session. The Brent main - second line spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: US - Russia negotiations are progressing, and there is uncertainty in geopolitical conflicts. Trump may meet with Putin next week, and the US plans to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Trump also announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods and may impose further tariffs on China. Some Fed officials believe in interest rate cuts due to economic and labor market conditions. EIA data shows a decline in US crude and refined product inventories [1][2] - **Logic Analysis**: Long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing risk of US economic weakness and sufficient supply elasticity, with an expectation of future supply - demand surplus. Brent is expected to trade in the $66.5 - 68 per barrel range in the short term [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Gasoline crack spread is weak, diesel crack spread is stable; Options: Wait - and - see [3] 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3543 points (+0.40%) in the night session, BU2512 closed at 3448 points (+0.207%). On August 6, asphalt spot prices were 3530 - 3970 in Shandong, 3650 - 3800 in East China, and 3520 - 3600 in South China. The benchmark prices of refined products in Shandong changed, with 92 gasoline down 17 to 7727 yuan per ton, 0 diesel down 14 to 6563 yuan per ton, and 3B petroleum coke up 60 to 2880 yuan per ton [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices fell 5 yuan per ton due to slow demand release, sufficient supply, and weak market confidence. In the Yangtze River Delta, prices were stable due to rainy weather and falling oil prices. In South China, prices were stable with some trade - offs between weak demand and reduced local supply [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and near - term demand is mediocre. The asphalt market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of demand release in the second half of the year. Oil prices are expected to be weak in the short term and decline in the medium term. Asphalt prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the main BU contract trading in the 3500 - 3650 range [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak and volatile; Arbitrage: Asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: Wait - and - see [5] 3. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 2836 (+0.60%) in the night session, LU10 closed at 3558 (+0.65%). In the Singapore paper market, high - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 5.0 to 5.3 dollars per ton, and low - sulfur Aug/Sep spread was 4.3 to 3.5 dollars per ton [5] - **Related News**: Nigeria's Dangote refinery plans to shut down its RFCC unit for 15 - day maintenance starting from August 10. On August 6, there were 3 transactions of high - sulfur fuel oil 380 in the Singapore spot window, and no transactions for high - sulfur fuel oil 180 and low - sulfur fuel oil [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced. Demand for high - sulfur feedstock is increasing, while seasonal power - generation demand is declining. Low - sulfur supply is increasing, and downstream demand lacks a specific driver [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - economic disturbances; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see, pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot [8] 4. PX (Para - xylene) - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6794 (+60/+0.89%), and remained unchanged in the night session. The September MOPJ was estimated at $579 per ton CFR. PX prices rose to $844 per ton, up $5 from the previous day. Two September Asian spot transactions were at 848 and 849 respectively. The PXN was $265 per ton, up $6 per ton [8][9] - **Related News**: According to CCF statistics, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were partially strong, with an average sales rate of 4 - 5% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales rate of 71% by 3:00 pm [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to return in August as some refineries resume production or increase their loads. Downstream PTA plants are reducing production, and the overall order volume is weak, so PX prices are expected to face pressure [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation [10] 5. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4724 (+42/+0.90%), and dropped 10 to 4714 (-0.21%) in the night session. In the spot market, August - end contracts were traded at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract, with a price negotiation range of 4650 - 4720. The September - mid contracts were traded at par with the 09 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 09 - 21 [10] - **Related News**: Similar to PX, the sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed certain trends. A South China PTA factory with a total capacity of 235 million tons cut production by 20% [10] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is decreasing as some PTA plants cut production or plan maintenance. Downstream demand lacks upward momentum, so PTA prices are expected to face pressure [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [11][12] 6. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4414 (+15/+0.34%), and rose 17 to 4431 (+0.39%) in the night session. The current spot basis was a premium of 79 - 82 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4493 - 4496 yuan per ton. The September - end futures basis was a premium of 76 - 78 yuan per ton to the 09 contract, with a negotiation price of 4490 - 4492 yuan per ton [13] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were as described before. A 90 - million - ton/year MEG plant in Singapore is under maintenance for about 45 days, and a 55 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Saudi Arabia shut down again without a clear restart time [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased recently. Supply is expected to increase as some plants restart or postpone their maintenance. The supply - demand balance is expected to weaken as domestic and foreign plants resume production [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [13][14] 7. Short - fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 main contract closed at 6414 (+32/+0.50%) during the day session, and dropped 14 to 6400 (-0.22%) in the night session. In the spot market, the prices of direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were stable, and downstream customers purchased on - demand [14][15] - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn and direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed similar trends [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber futures rebounded with raw materials. The processing fee stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [15] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16] 8. PR (Bottle - chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 main contract closed at 5936 (+24/+0.41%), and dropped 2 to 5934 (-0.03%) in the night session. In the spot market, the polyester bottle - chip market had good transactions, with some plants having large - volume sales. August - October orders were mostly traded at 5870 - 5970 yuan per ton ex - factory [16] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes were mostly stable, with some slightly increasing [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The bottle - chip futures rose with polyester raw material futures. The processing fee rebounded and stabilized. Most major plants will maintain their production cuts in August, so the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [16][17] 9. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6246 (+26/+0.42%) during the day session, and rose 24 to 6270 (+0.38%) in the night session. EB2509 main contract closed at 7285 (+3/+0.04%) during the day session, and rose 29 to 7314 (+0.40%) in the night session. In the spot market, the negotiation range of pure benzene in East China was 6030 - 6060 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The negotiation ranges of styrene in Jiangsu were 7310 - 7380 for spot, 7360 - 7405 for August - end, and 7385 - 7435 for September - end [18] - **Related News**: On August 6, 2025, the port trade inventory of pure benzene in East China was 15.2 million tons, down 1 million tons from July 30 (-6.17%), and up 204% year - on - year. The total inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased by 1.05 million tons to 15.05 million tons. A 30 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Tangshan Xuyang restarted on August 6, and an 80 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Guangdong Jieyang plans to shut down for two - week maintenance starting from September 5. A 67 - million - ton/year styrene plant in Jingbosidarei started producing qualified products on August 6 and is operating at a stable load [18][19] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene supply is expected to be in a relatively balanced state, with a de - stocking expectation in the third quarter. Styrene supply is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consolidation; Arbitrage: Long pure benzene, short styrene; Options: Sell both call and put options [21] 10. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: In the plastic spot market, LLDPE prices mostly rose slightly. In the PP spot market, the prices in different regions had different changes [21] - **Related News**: On August 6, the PE maintenance ratio was 8.8%, up 0.4 percentage points, and the linear production ratio was 40.3%, down 1.3 percentage points. The PP maintenance ratio was 15.7%, down 0.5 percentage points, and the拉丝 production ratio was 33.9%, up 4 percentage points [21] - **Logic Analysis**: New polyolefin capacities are being put into production, and there is still capacity - expansion pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and there is no obvious factor to improve the supply - demand situation. So, the overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The overall supply - demand pressure for plastic and PP is large, and the prices are expected to be weak and volatile. Pay attention to new plant start - ups and macro - policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [22] 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: In the PVC spot market, prices rose, but the trading was light. In the caustic soda spot market, the prices in different regions were mostly stable [22] - **Related News**: A Shandong alumina factory lowered the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan per ton. Jinling's caustic soda prices decreased [24] - **Logic Analysis**: For PVC, the supply is expected to increase as new plants are planned to start production, and the demand is weak, so the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. For caustic soda, the supply - demand pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be bearish [24][25] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions for both PVC and caustic soda, and pay attention to subsequent policies; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [25][26] 12. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1271 yuan per ton (+18/1.4%), and dropped 10 to 1261 (-0.8%) in the night session. The SA9 - 1 spread was - 97 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [26] - **Related News**: As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 185.18 million tons, up 5.60 million tons (+3.12%) from the previous Thursday. Some plants had production changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash futures price strengthened due to the strong coking coal futures price and rising coal prices. The weekly production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand is weak, but the price is expected to be supported by cost factors in the second half of the year [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile and bullish; Arbitrage: Consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [27][28] 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closed at 1083 yuan per ton (+6/0.56%), and dropped 8 to 1075 (-0.74%) in the night session. The 9 - 1 spread was - 148 yuan per ton. In the spot market, the prices in different regions changed [28] - **Related News**: The domestic float - glass market prices were stable or decreased, and the trading was lackluster [28] - **Logic Analysis**: The glass futures price was affected by the strong coking coal futures price. The factory's sales weakened, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be determined by fundamentals in the second half of the year, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Volatile; Arbitrage: Take profit on the glass 9 - 1 reverse spread, and consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: Wait - and - see [31] 14. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2395 (-2/-0.08%) after night - session trading. In the spot market, the prices in different regions varied [31] - **Related News**: As of August

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with cost advantages in the context of "anti-involution" in the industry, particularly highlighting the benefits of natural soda ash production methods over synthetic methods [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - China is the world's largest producer of soda ash, accounting for 51% of global production [1] - From 2016 to 2022, capacity growth was constrained by policy impacts, with recent years seeing new capacity primarily from natural soda ash methods. As of 2024, China's soda ash capacity is projected to reach 43.45 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons year-on-year, with the majority of new capacity coming from natural soda ash methods [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The current industry operating rate is approximately 80%, with signs of oversupply in the domestic soda ash market expected in the first half of 2025. The price spread for soda ash products is at historically low levels, situated in the bottom range since 2009 [2] - Approximately 30% of the soda ash industry's capacity is considered outdated, with 10% of this capacity having energy consumption and emissions below benchmark levels. As of 2020, about 10% of the soda ash industry capacity did not meet benchmark standards, and projects below these standards are expected to undergo upgrades or be phased out by the end of 2025 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Slightly Bearish [2] - Silicomanganese: Bearish [4] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [4] Core Views - Market expectations have boosted steel prices, leading to a slight rebound, while glass and soda ash are oscillating, and ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy prices are rising [1][3] - Glass supply lacks policy - driven contraction, and real - estate drags down demand. Although speculative demand has increased and inventories are decreasing, they remain at a high level. In the long run, supply - demand remains loose [1] - Soda ash production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, but may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase [1] - Silicomanganese production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased [3] - Ferrosilicon production is gradually recovering, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations [3] Summary by Category Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 0.93%. Downstream procurement is cautious [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply shows no policy - driven contraction, real - estate drags down demand. Speculative demand has increased, and factory inventories are decreasing but remain high. Market trading sentiment has cooled after important meetings. In the long run, supply - demand is loose. Attention should be paid to the delivery of the 09 contract and industry capacity reduction [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 1.78%. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash has slightly increased, and downstream buyers purchase based on low - price demand [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, and may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the supply side [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market was strong, with the main contract rising 4.27%. Factory开工 enthusiasm is high, and prices have been slightly adjusted. The price in the northern market is 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is about 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly to a medium level in recent years. Australian manganese ore shipments have basically recovered. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased. Attention should be paid to inventory and ore shipments [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures market was boosted by the black - metal sector and oscillated upward. Market sentiment has improved, and prices are stable. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area is 5350 - 5500 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production is gradually recovering, apparent demand has decreased, enterprises have profits, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations. In the long run, capacity is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4]

天然碱法较合成法成本及能耗优势凸显。天然碱法原料来自矿山自采，除需要煤炭作为 能源材料外，无需其他原辅材料，工艺流程相对化学合成法更为简单，仅为物理加工过程， 能耗更低，成本相较氨碱法、联碱法更低。 当前行业开工率8成，价格价差位于低位水平 2025年上半年，国内纯碱市场供应过剩问题显现，上半年行业平均开工率约80%。随着 纯碱新增产能继续释放，产品价格价差中枢逐步下移。截至8/1，国内纯碱产品的价格价差 分别位于2009年以来9.3%、10.7%分位的历史相对底部区间。 纯碱行业老旧产能占比约3成，且10%的产能能耗排放低于基准水平2025年7月16日，国 家工信部等五部委发布《关于开展石化化工行业老旧装置摸底评估的通知》，湖南省跟进开 展省内排摸。根据卓创资讯、百川盈孚数据，我们梳理得到我国纯碱行业20年以上产能占比 约为31%。 此外，2022年2月15日，国家发改委发布《高耗能行业重点领域节能降碳改造升级实施 指南（2022年版）》，截至2020年底，纯碱行业约有10%的产能未达到基准值水平。根据 《工业重点领域能效标杆水平和基准水平（2023年版）》，对能效低于基准水平的存量项 目，原则上应在202 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and the futures prices are expected to gradually return to the real - trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate. It is expected that the policy direction will continue the previous strict control of the incremental situation. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side to the prices of finished products [3]. - Short - term commodity prices may be adjusted. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate with the prices of downstream products and mainly oscillate. The market divergence remains, and risk control should be noted [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically. In the long - term, the demand of the black sector will weaken marginally [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, although the short - term price is repeated, the high - point may have appeared. For polysilicon, the price is in high - level oscillation, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely. Caution is required when participating [15][16]. - For glass, it is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. In the long - term, if there are substantial policies in real estate, the futures price may continue to rise. For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long - term. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3234 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.030%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 893 tons to 89256 tons, and the main contract position decreased by 56263 lots to 1.652569 million lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3451 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.17%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 55998 tons, and the main contract position decreased by 1559 lots to 1.460175 million lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The real - estate policy remains basically unchanged. The export volume has decreased significantly this week. The speculative demand for rebar has decreased, and there is inventory accumulation. The demand for hot - rolled coils has increased slightly, with a rapid increase in production and a small inventory accumulation. The inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 794.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50% (- 4.00), with a position change of - 26208 lots to 358300 lots. The weighted position was 942500 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 776 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 30.13 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.65% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrival volume increased. The daily average pig iron output decreased. The port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly. The profitability of steel mills is still at a high level, and the demand support remains [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 1.30% at 6096 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 94 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 3.36% at 5908 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 142 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: Manganese silicon is in an over - supplied industrial pattern, with marginal weakening of future demand and potential downward adjustment of costs. Ferrosilicon also faces the risk of weakening demand and a significant decline in pig iron output in the future [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8700 yuan/ton, up 2.47% (+ 210). The weighted contract position increased by 21227 lots to 522034 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 51345 yuan/ton, up 2.02% (+ 1015). The weighted contract position increased by 5970 lots to 387318 lots [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: For industrial silicon, the supply is in excess, and the effective demand is insufficient. The price may be repeated in the short - term. For polysilicon, the price is affected by the expected capacity integration plan and the enterprise's price - holding strategy, and it is in high - level oscillation. The inventory may accumulate slightly in August [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1181 yuan, down 9 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased by 239.7 million weight boxes to 5949.9 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.87% month - on - month and 13.88% year - on - year. The spot price of soda ash was 1320 yuan, up 70 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 56000 tons to 1.8518 million tons, an increase of 3.12% [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. In the long - term, it depends on real - estate policies. Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and there are supply - demand contradictions in the long - term [18][19].