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化工日报-20250410
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 12:37
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆★ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Heating: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market is affected by macro - factors such as Trump's tariff suspension and oil price fluctuations, leading to price rebounds in multiple chemical products, but the fundamentals of different products vary, and the sustainability of price increases is uncertain [4][6][7] Summary by Product Methanol - Macro factors drive a sharp rebound in the methanol market. Coastal olefin plants operate stably, imports are in a destocking trend, but the support for the market is limited. Domestic production is increasing, and the supply - demand balance is expected to loosen [2] Urea - The urea market rebounds following macro - sentiment. The demand gap in Northeast China is narrowing, and the inventory of production enterprises has changed from decreasing to increasing. The supply pressure remains high, and the demand for rice fertilization in the South is expected to peak in late April [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures prices rebound due to Trump's tariff suspension and oil price increases. However, the demand for styrene downstream is expected to decline, and the enthusiasm for propylene raw material procurement is not high. The supply - side pressure is relatively controllable, and the short - term price rebound has limited momentum [4] Styrene - The styrene futures contract closes with a daily limit increase. Raw material prices rise, and the market follows suit. However, in the long - term, the raw material improvement is limited, and there is a lack of continuous upward momentum [6] Polyester - PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, and bottle chip prices all rebound due to tariff suspensions and oil price increases. The export of textile raw materials may increase, and the supply of some products is expected to shrink. However, the US policy is still variable [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC strengthens during the day, with a slight decrease in supply due to planned maintenance. The domestic demand is flat, and the export situation is mixed. The inventory pressure is high, and the fundamentals are weak. Caustic soda fluctuates within a narrow range, with high supply and low procurement enthusiasm [8] Glass and Soda Ash - The glass market is affected by rumors of large - scale destocking in warehouses, and the spot market is in the process of destocking. The cost of some production lines is under pressure, and the impact of tariffs on different products varies. The soda ash production is increasing, and the futures price is under pressure at a high level [9]