Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylic: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Polyethylene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - PX: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish trend with limited operability [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, suggesting a balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] Core Views - The chemical market is generally under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, seasonal impacts, and policy uncertainties. Different chemical products face various challenges in supply, demand, and price trends [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined. There is no significant news, and supply is expected to increase due to device restarts. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and price support is limited [2] - Polyolefin futures also fell. For polyethylene, demand from the agricultural film industry is improving but slowly, and overall demand support is weak. For polypropylene, new capacity and reduced maintenance will increase supply, and downstream demand is sluggish [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices declined, following a weak trend. Supply - demand is decreasing, and port inventories are rising slightly. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third - quarter later stage but pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures faced resistance. Oil prices are in a sideways trend, supply is high, and downstream demand is stable but with poor spot trading [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices dropped, with limited fundamental drivers. PTA inventories are increasing, and processing margins need demand recovery [4] - Ethylene glycol prices decreased, affected by external factors and supply changes. Demand is stable, and inventories are slightly decreasing [4] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed raw material prices down. Short - fiber has a mid - term positive outlook, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity issues [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures tumbled. Coastal port inventories are unexpectedly decreasing, but imports are expected to increase, and the market may be weak in the long - term [5] - Urea futures declined. Agricultural demand is weakening, and the market is likely to trade in a range in the short - term [5] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell from a high. Supply is decreasing due to maintenance, and domestic demand is weak, but external demand is expected to improve [6] - Caustic soda prices weakened. Supply pressure is high in the long - term, and prices are expected to be under pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices hit the daily limit down. There is supply pressure, and it is a long - term short - selling target [7] - Glass prices also hit the daily limit down. Market sentiment is cooling, and prices are unlikely to rise significantly without supply reduction [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, trend intensities are given for each commodity, with values ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). For example, PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, benzene, styrene, soda ash, PVC, fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil have a trend intensity of -1, indicating a bearish or weakly bearish outlook; asphalt has a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook; LPG has a trend intensity of 0, also neutral [2][9][14][17][20][34][38][41][46][50][54][58][61][66][70][78][84] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as the "anti - involution" policy, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit structures. For most commodities, short - term trends are affected by factors like speculative capital flows, while medium - term trends are related to supply - side changes and policy expectations. For example, in the case of PX, although the short - term trend is weakening, the PXN spread has increased, and future Asian supply is expected to rise; for synthetic rubber and methanol, short - term high - level corrections are expected, followed by medium - term oscillations [6][10][19][56] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The market sentiment is boosted by the "anti - involution" policy, and the PX - naphtha spread has widened. The domestic PX start - up rate is 79.9%, and the Asian overall start - up rate is 72.9%. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase. The unilateral trend is weakening, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices [6][10] - **PTA**: Supply pressure is gradually emerging. The PTA start - up rate remains at 79.7%. The unilateral trend is weakening, and the industry can hedge at high prices. Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA in the 01 contract [10][11] - **MEG**: The trend is weakening. Saudi Arabian ethylene glycol plants have restarted, and some EO - EG co - production plants plan to switch to EG production. Import volumes are expected to fluctuate, and the supply is relatively loose in the short term [8][12] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The macro atmosphere is bullish, but the supply is affected by rainfall and geopolitical conflicts. The Shanghai market full - latex and Thai mixed rubber prices are expected to move within certain ranges [13][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to have a short - term correction and a medium - term oscillation. The short - term correction is due to the outflow of speculative funds and the strengthening of the basis, while the medium - term oscillation is supported by policies, the stabilization of raw material prices, and the improvement of the industrial chain fundamentals [17][19] Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to have a slow shipment and oscillate repeatedly. The domestic weekly production has decreased, and both factory and social inventories have decreased. The trend intensity is neutral [20][33] LLDPE, PP, and PVC - **LLDPE**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The market price has mostly increased, but downstream demand is weak. The supply pressure will gradually increase in the future, and the anti - involution policy has little impact on the industry [34][35] - **PP**: The spot price has a small increase, but the transaction is light. The futures price has boosted the spot market, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and the inventory pressure remains [38][39] - **PVC**: It is expected to be weak in the short term. The market is in a situation of high production and high inventory, and the anti - involution policy has little impact. The supply reduction drive is insufficient, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to alleviate [78][79] Other Commodities - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The import volume from the United States has decreased, but it is compensated by imports from other countries and domestic production. The supply is in a high - inventory state, and the demand is weak [46][48][49] - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has driven the spot market, and the enterprise inventory has decreased [50][51] - **Methanol and Urea**: Both are expected to have short - term corrections and medium - term oscillations. The short - term correction is due to the outflow of speculative funds and the strengthening of the basis, while the medium - term oscillation is supported by policies and supply - demand factors [54][56][58][60] - **Benzene and Styrene**: Benzene has a weak oscillation, and styrene has a large inventory pressure and is recommended as a short - position allocation. The supply of benzene is increasing, and the supply of styrene is increasing while demand is decreasing [2][61][62] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The domestic market is oscillating strongly, with enterprises raising prices and downstream demand being stable [64][66] - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG has high chemical demand and relatively resistant prices; propylene has a short - term weak supply - demand relationship [69][70] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil continues to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a small decline, with the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market remaining stable for the time being [84] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is recommended to short at high levels for the 10 - contract and hold the 10 - 12 spread reversal position. The freight rates of European and US - West routes show different trends [86]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Soda ash - Report cycle: Daily report - Date of composition: July 23, 2025 [1] 2. Futures Market 2.1 Contract Quotes - On July 23, 2025, the soda ash futures faced pressure and pulled back. The opening price of Soda Ash 2509 (SA509) was 1376 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1394 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1300 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1338 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 3.307 billion hands, an increase of 197 million hands from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.037 billion hands, a decrease of 37.3 million hands from the previous day [2] 2.2 Variety Prices - The report provides the opening and highest prices of Soda Ash 2508, Soda Ash 2509, and Soda Ash 2601 contracts on July 23, 2025 [5] 3. Spot Market - The report presents the domestic soda ash price summary table on July 23, 2025, showing price changes compared to July 22, 2025 [6] 4. Influencing Factors 4.1 Policy - related - Policy expectations such as the steady - growth plan for the building materials industry and the "city - specific policies" in the real estate sector, combined with low inventory, have driven market sentiment up [7] 4.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The weekly output was 568,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%. However, summer maintenance led to supply contraction, and the release progress of new capacity from Yuanxing was slower than expected. - Demand side: The daily melting volume of float glass was 168,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.76%, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash procurement increased [8] 4.3 Technical Analysis - The price of the Soda Ash 2509 (SA509) contract deviated from the 5 - day moving average today, and there may be a need for technical repair. However, the trend indicator still maintained a bullish signal, indicating that the short - term trend is still upward, but the repair demand may cause the price to pull back to some extent [9] 5. Market Outlook - The current soda ash futures price may be supported by policies and maintenance factors and remain in a relatively strong state. In the long run, Yuanxing's second - phase 2.8 million - ton capacity is expected to be put into production in August, which will increase market supply, and the soda ash futures price may face valuation pressure. In addition, if the inventory inflection point appears, that is, the inventory starts to rise, it may also lead to a price pullback. Traders need to beware of the short - selling risk brought about by the accelerated release of Yuanxing's capacity or the increase in inventory [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PX: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the disk [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the disk [1] - Glass: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The market is gradually returning to rationality after being stimulated by macro news, and each chemical product is affected by factors such as supply and demand, seasonality, and policies, showing different trends [2][3][4] - Different chemical products have different investment opportunities and trends, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and policy trends [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly lower. The market lacks fundamental support for upward movement, and the spot market supply - demand support is weak [2] - Polyolefin futures main contracts closed lower. Polyethylene demand is weak, and polypropylene price has a small upward shift, but the price increase space is limited due to weak demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene followed the external market sentiment and oscillated lower. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures main contract faced technical pressure and oscillated lower. The macro - positive support weakened, and the spot trading was poor [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rose and then fell. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and the demand for upstream PX was dragged down. The processing margin of PTA has room to repair [4] - Ethylene glycol oscillated lower. The downstream demand was weak, and the supply increased. The supply advantage will weaken [4] - Short fiber followed the raw materials to rise and then fall. The demand is expected to pick up in the medium - term. Bottle chip inventory is stable after production reduction, but the profit repair drive is limited [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures main contract oscillated and corrected. The port unexpectedly destocked, and the domestic main - producing area enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance [5] - Urea futures opened high and went low. The domestic downstream demand is weak, but the export is advancing, and the short - term is expected to oscillate strongly [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fell from a high. The spot trading volume was mediocre, the demand was in the off - season, and the supply increased. The short - term price may follow the overall sentiment [6] - Caustic soda fell from a high. The spot performance was average, the high - price goods sales slowed down, and the impact of macro factors is large in the short - term [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fell. The inventory decreased, the spot price rose, and the supply was high. The short - term is more affected by macro - sentiment [7] - Glass fell from a high. The industry continued to destock, the profit slightly recovered, and the short - term is expected to follow the macro - sentiment [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is affected by policies to eliminate backward production capacity. The market sentiment is positive, and commodity prices are rising, driving up the prices of propylene and polyolefins [3]. - Propylene is expected to shift from an oversupply to a tight - balance situation after capacity reduction, but supply pressure will increase as refinery operations recover, while downstream demand is also gradually recovering [3]. - For polyolefins, policies have a certain boosting effect on the market. Although production maintenance eases some supply - demand pressure, upstream and mid - stream inventories are rising. Cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand remains sluggish, with an expected increase in supply and inventory in the future [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - It includes the trend of the propylene futures main contract, the basis between East China and the main contract, the basis between North China and the main contract, and the basis between Northwest China and the main contract, as well as the market prices in East China and Shandong [10][11]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers propylene processing fees, capacity utilization rates, production margins from different production methods (PDH, MTO, naphtha cracking), and the capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins and the operating rate of crude oil refineries [15][19][26]. 3. Propylene Import and Export Profits - Involves price differences between South Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia and China, and propylene import profits [31][35]. 4. Propylene Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - Includes the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][40][43]. 5. Propylene Inventory - Consists of propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [61]. 6. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Comprises the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, and the basis between East China LL and the main contract, and between East China PP and the main contract [65][69]. 7. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the production profits of LL (crude - oil - based) and PP (crude - oil - based and PDH - based), PE and PP operating rates, weekly production, and maintenance losses [74][80][82]. 8. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Differences - Includes price differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and price differences between PP low - melt copolymer, PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China [87][94][95]. 9. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - Involves LL and PP import and export profits, and price differences between different regions and China [101][113]. 10. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Profits - Includes the operating rates and production profits of PE downstream (agricultural film, packaging film, winding film) and PP downstream (plastic weaving, BOPP film, injection molding) [124][125][131]. 11. Polyolefin Inventory - Consists of inventory in oil - based and coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports for both PE and PP [133][138][146]. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on propylene in the short term [4]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread for PL01 - 05 [4]. - Inter - commodity: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of propylene futures and options on July 22 marks a significant development in China's chemical industry, providing essential risk management tools and enhancing pricing mechanisms for the propylene market [1][2][3]. Industry Impact - Propylene is a crucial basic chemical raw material, and its market stability is vital for the high-quality development of the chemical industry and the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse in China [2]. - The introduction of propylene futures and options is expected to improve risk management, enhance pricing efficiency, and strengthen the resilience of the industry chain [3][4]. - The new derivatives will fill the gap in the C3 industry chain, offering direct risk management tools for upstream and downstream enterprises [3]. Market Performance - On the first day of trading, seven contracts were listed, with a total transaction volume of 47,000 lots and a turnover of 6.24 billion yuan, indicating a positive market response [1][4]. - All seven contracts closed in the green, reflecting strong market participation and positive price expectations [4][5]. Participant Engagement - Active participation from entities such as MRC Chemical Group and Zhongji Petrochemical, which executed the first trades, demonstrates the optimism among industry players regarding the new derivatives [5]. - Futures companies are expected to expand their services to the chemical industry, enhancing their capabilities in risk management and inventory optimization through the new products [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified [1] - Methanol: Not specified [1] - Pure Benzene: Not specified [1] - Styrene: Not specified [1] - Ethylene: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - Plastics: Not specified [1] - PVC: Not specified [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - PX: Not specified [1] - PTA: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Slightly positive) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ (Slightly positive) [1] - Glass: Not specified [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: Not specified [1] - Propylene: Not specified [1] Core Views - The olefin and polyolefin futures markets showed different trends. Olefin futures had a strong start, but the propylene fundamentals were weak. Polyolefin futures rose, but the fundamentals remained soft [2]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets had different performances. Pure benzene had short - term support and different monthly spread operation suggestions. Benzene - styrene had a price increase, but the supply - demand contradiction was difficult to improve [3]. - In the polyester market, PX and PTA were stable but faced supply - demand issues. Ethylene glycol was short - term strong but supply might increase. Short fiber had policy support and mid - term potential, while bottle chips had limited profit - repair drivers [5]. - The methanol market rose due to cost - side news, and its sustainability was uncertain. The urea market was expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [6]. - The PVC market was strong due to news, and the caustic soda market was also strong under macro influence [7]. - The soda ash and glass markets were affected by macro and upstream news, and their long - term trends depended on capacity reduction implementation [8]. Section Summaries Olefin - Polyolefin - Olefin futures opened higher and closed up on the first day, expected to be strong in the short term. However, the propylene supply - demand was imbalanced, and it was in the off - season [2]. - Polyolefin futures rose, but the fundamentals were weak. Polyethylene demand was poor, and polypropylene downstream demand was also weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene spot prices slightly declined, but the price trend was upward. It had short - term support from inventory and seasonal expectations. Different monthly spread operations were suggested for different periods [3]. - Benzene - styrene futures rose. Supply and demand both increased slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate, with the supply - demand contradiction difficult to improve [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA were stable, with PTA continuing to accumulate inventory and having limited supply - demand drivers. Ethylene glycol was short - term strong but might face supply increases. Short fiber had policy support and mid - term potential, while bottle chips had limited profit - repair drivers [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose due to cost - side news, and its upward trend's sustainability was uncertain. The inventory of production enterprises changed little, and the coastal area had sufficient supply [6]. - Urea futures were expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with supply sufficient, demand structure changing, and policy support [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was strong due to news, and the industry had some old - age capacity. The manufacturer's inventory decreased slightly, and the social inventory increased [7]. - Caustic soda was strong under macro influence, with profit improvement and attention to old - age capacity reduction [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash had a daily limit up, with inventory decreasing and supply under high pressure. The photovoltaic industry continued to cut production [8]. - Glass had a daily limit up, with prices rising. Its long - term trend depended on capacity reduction implementation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of propylene futures on July 22, 2025, on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, highlighting the oversupply in the global and domestic propylene market and the expected trading strategies for the first day of trading [3][4]. Group 1: Trading Rules and Initial Conditions - The first batch of contracts for propylene futures will include PL2601 to PL2607, with a listing benchmark price of 6350 CNY/ton. Each contract corresponds to 20 tons, with a minimum price fluctuation unit of 1 CNY/ton. The initial margin requirement is set at 8%, and the price limit for the first trading day is ±14% [4][5]. - It is noted that new futures contracts may face liquidity issues on the first trading day, leading to potential price discrepancies. Therefore, it is recommended to use limit orders to avoid significant deviations from expected prices [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The global propylene market is experiencing an oversupply, with an expected capacity of 169 million tons by 2025, of which China will account for 35%. China's total propylene capacity is projected to exceed 60 million tons per year by 2025 [6]. - Domestic propylene production methods include steam cracking, propane dehydrogenation (PDH), catalytic cracking, and methanol-to-olefins, with PDH being the primary contributor to new capacity. However, the average operating rate in this sector is only 74% [6]. - On the demand side, domestic apparent consumption is expected to grow to 60 million tons, but the overall supply-demand balance remains loose. The polypropylene (PP) sector faces overcapacity, with new capacities expected to exceed 50 million tons by 2025, which may exert long-term pressure on propylene prices [7]. Group 3: Trading Strategies for the First Day - For the first day of trading, a single-sided strategy is recommended, focusing on the recent increase in profits from external procurement of propylene for PP production, which supports propylene prices. Attention should be paid to the actions of companies that have previously halted PP production [9]. - A cross-commodity arbitrage strategy is suggested, where the price difference between propylene and PP has compressed to over 800 CNY/ton, allowing for a strategy of buying propylene and selling PP to lock in processing profits [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polyolefins: Not rated - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polyester (PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip): PX - ☆☆☆, PTA - ☆☆☆, Ethylene Glycol - ★☆☆, Short Fiber - ☆☆☆, Bottle Chip - ☆☆☆ [1] - Chlor - Alkali (PVC, Caustic Soda): ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different products having various supply - demand relationships and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as inventory changes, seasonal demand, and cost fluctuations [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates in a narrow range. Import arrivals increase significantly, and ports accumulate inventory rapidly. Domestic producers in major production areas plan autumn maintenance, but some may postpone due to good profits. Downstream demand is for immediate needs, and production enterprise inventory changes little. The expected reduction in inland supply supports the market, but demand enters the off - season [2] Urea - The urea futures price rises first and then oscillates and回调 during the day. Daily production decreases slightly, and overall supply remains sufficient. Agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer producers is still low. Producer inventory transfers to downstream and ports, with producers' inventory decreasing significantly and port inventory increasing rapidly. The domestic urea market is expected to have a loose supply - demand situation in the short term, and with the expected release of new export quotas, the market is likely to oscillate strongly within a range [3] Polyolefins - The main contracts of polyolefin futures continue to fluctuate in a narrow range, with a weakening trend. The cost of oil prices fluctuates widely without clear guidance. For polyethylene, the restart of some maintenance devices increases supply expectations, and short - term demand from North China's agricultural film has limited driving effect. For polypropylene, a high number of maintenance devices provide support, but weak downstream demand suppresses the market [4] Pure Benzene - Boosted by the overnight oil price rebound, the price of pure benzene rises in the morning but then falls. Domestic production increases slightly, and port supplies are abundant. There is a seasonal improvement in supply - demand expected in the second half of the third quarter, but pressure returns in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations, with a positive spread strategy in the medium - short term and a negative spread in the fourth quarter. Considering the long - term bearish view on oil prices, shorting pure benzene at high prices is advisable [6] Styrene - The main contract of styrene futures has a narrow - range consolidation. The main port's inventory accumulates significantly, with refrigerated tank capacity in short supply. More selling and less buying in the spot market lead to a decline in spot prices and a weakening basis, which drags down the futures market [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise first, then fall, and rebound in the afternoon. PX supply - demand improves, but low downstream PTA processing margins and weakening demand from long - filament inventory and cash - flow problems drag it down. PTA has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation, and the spot processing margin is at a low level with a repair drive. For ethylene glycol, domestic production decreases, and imports are low, with port inventory reduction and unstable overseas device operation boosting the market. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices follow the raw materials, with short - fiber having a slight inventory reduction and repair of spot processing margins, while bottle - chip has a decline in industry operation rate and a slight increase in inventory [8] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuates in a narrow range. Calcium carbide producers lower prices, and producer inventory decreases slightly while social inventory increases. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali improves, and new device production increases supply. Domestic demand is weak, and export deliveries decrease. Caustic soda futures price is weak. Profit improvement leads to increased device operation, but high - price sales are difficult. Alumina demand provides some support, but non - aluminum downstream demand is average [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices decline during the day. Mid - and downstream restocking sentiment improves, industry profit rises slightly, and production capacity increases slightly. Processing orders are weak. Soda ash prices oscillate downward. Industry inventory accumulates, production increases, and the photovoltaic industry plans to cut production. The supply - demand situation of glass is better than that of soda ash, and the price spread is expected to widen [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: Not specified [1] - Pure Benzene: Not specified [1] - PX: Not specified [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Bullish bias but limited trading opportunity [1] - Bottle Chips: Not specified [1] - Urea: Not specified [1] - Caustic Soda: Not specified [1] - Soda Ash: Not specified [1] - Plastic: Not specified [1] - Styrene: Not specified [1] - PTA: Not specified [1] - Short Fibre: Not specified [1] - Methanol: Not specified [1] - PVC: Not specified [1] - Glass: Not specified [1] Core Views - The methanol market is supported by inland supply, but demand is entering the off - season [2]. - The short - term supply - demand of the domestic urea market is expected to be loose, and the market is likely to fluctuate strongly within the range [3]. - The polyolefin market has supply recovery and weak demand issues [4]. - The pure benzene market has a weak cost support and supply pressure, with seasonal improvement expected in Q3 and pressure in Q4 [5]. - The styrene market has sufficient supply and poor spot trading [6]. - The polyester market has different situations for PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fibre and bottle chips, with various supply - demand and profit conditions [7]. - The PVC market has increased supply and weak demand, while the caustic soda market has profit improvement but high - price sales issues [8]. - The glass market has better supply - demand than soda ash, and the glass - soda ash spread is expected to continue to strengthen [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates narrowly. Import arrivals have increased significantly, and ports are rapidly accumulating inventory. Some enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance due to good profits. Downstream maintains rigid demand procurement, and production enterprise inventory has little change [2]. Urea - The urea futures fluctuate strongly. Daily production decreases slightly, supply remains sufficient, and agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. Production enterprise inventory is transferred to downstream and ports, with enterprises de - stocking and ports stocking up quickly. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly within the range [3]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures fluctuate narrowly and are weak. PE supply will recover as some devices restart, and demand from North China's agricultural film has limited impact. PP has many maintenance devices providing support, but off - season demand is weak [4]. Pure Benzene - The price of benzene is weak. Cost support is weakening, domestic production is increasing slightly, and port supplies are abundant. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the second half of Q3, but pressure in Q4. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [5]. Styrene - The main contract of styrene futures opens low and fluctuates narrowly. The cost - end crude oil market has a multi - empty game. Styrene has high operating loads and increasing port inventory, and downstream procurement is on - demand [6]. Polyester - PX and PTA fluctuate. PX supply - demand improves, but weak PTA demand drags it down. PTA has a drive to repair the processing spread. Ethylene glycol prices rise due to port de - stocking and unstable overseas devices. Short fibre has a slight de - stocking and profit repair. Bottle chips enterprises cut production, but inventory increases slightly [7]. Chlor - alkali - PVC fluctuates narrowly. Manufacturers de - stock slightly, but social inventory increases. New devices are put into operation, and downstream orders are insufficient. Caustic soda fluctuates strongly, with profit improvement driving device restart, but high - price sales are poor [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass runs strongly, with inventory decreasing and downstream restocking. It is expected to fluctuate with the macro - mood. Soda ash runs strongly, but the spot market is weak, with high supply and inventory. The glass - soda ash spread is expected to strengthen [9]