Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI for March increased to 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points month-on-month, driven by a recovery in both supply and demand [12][25] - The non-manufacturing PMI recorded 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, although it showed a downward trend over three months [12][25] - New orders index rose to 51.8%, up 0.7 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a recovery in demand, particularly in TMT and general/specialized equipment sectors [14][21] Group 2 - In the information technology sector, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index decreased by 8.13% to 4282.46 points, while the DXI Index increased by 4.21% to 55171.39 points [29][30] - DDR5 DRAM prices increased by 2.32% to $5.33, with 8GB DDR4 DRAM prices rising by 5.45% to $1.65 [31] Group 3 - In the midstream manufacturing sector, sales of major engineering machinery improved year-on-year in February, while heavy truck sales turned negative in March [25][28] - The solar power installation capacity in February showed a rolling year-on-year increase, indicating growth in the renewable energy sector [28] Group 4 - In the consumer demand sector, the sales of home appliances showed a month-on-month increase, while the prices of live pigs and sugar rose [25][28] - The film box office revenue saw a decline in the ten-day average, although it increased year-on-year since the beginning of the year [28] Group 5 - In the resource sector, the national cement price index increased, while the prices of rebar and steel billets decreased [28] - Brent crude oil prices rose by 5.18%, indicating upward pressure on energy costs [28] Group 6 - In the financial real estate sector, the land transaction premium rate and the transaction area of commercial housing increased, while the index for second-hand housing listings decreased [28] - The SHIBOR rates for 1-week and 2-week periods decreased, indicating a tightening in the money market [28] Group 7 - The public utility sector saw an increase in natural gas prices, while the average daily power generation of key power plants showed a widening year-on-year decline [28]

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance in January-February 2025 shows stable growth despite a slight decline in production growth rates compared to December 2024, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and the timing of the Spring Festival. Investment is improving at a faster rate than consumption, but uncertainties remain in the real estate and export sectors, necessitating continued policy support [1][2][3]. Economic Performance - January-February industrial added value and service production index grew by 5.9% and 5.6% year-on-year, respectively, down 0.3 and 0.9 percentage points from December 2024 [1][2]. - Fixed asset investment and retail sales grew by 4.1% and 4.0% year-on-year, respectively, with increases of 1.9 and 0.3 percentage points compared to December 2024 [1][3]. - The demand structure indicates that investment is improving more significantly than consumption, with high growth in categories supported by the old-for-new policy, such as home appliances and furniture [1][3]. Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery in land acquisition in key cities, with land transaction area and value improving from December 2024's declines to -2.6% and 39.2% year-on-year, respectively [4]. - However, new construction starts have seen a significant decline of 29.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness in the sector [4][29]. - The sales of new homes have turned negative, with a 5.1% year-on-year decline in sales area, while second-hand home sales remain resilient, growing by 23% [28][29]. Investment Trends - Broad infrastructure investment grew by 9.9% year-on-year, with public utilities and transportation showing strong growth rates of 25.4% and 2.7%, respectively [5][40]. - Manufacturing investment remains robust, driven by prior export improvements and equipment upgrades, with significant increases in automotive and food manufacturing investments [6]. Consumer Market - The retail sales growth rate for January-February was 4.0%, with notable improvements in essential goods and certain discretionary categories, driven by consumption policies [35][36]. - The catering sector saw a 4.3% year-on-year increase, reflecting the impact of the Spring Festival [3][33]. - The introduction of the "Consumption Promotion Action Plan" aims to stimulate demand across various sectors, including maternal and child products [37][45]. Financial Sector - The financial data for February indicates a slight decline in new loans and a weak recovery in credit demand, highlighting the need for further monetary policy support [23][24]. - Government debt issuance has accelerated, contributing to a year-on-year increase in social financing [24][25]. Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with leading companies expanding their market share through improved cost control and operational efficiency [49]. - The overall consumption of agricultural products remains stable, with expectations for a gradual increase in birth rates potentially benefiting the maternal and infant product market [45][46].

中金研究 2025年3月5日，李强总理向十四届全国人大三次会议作政府工作报告，全面部署2025年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向，设定今年发展的主要预期 目标，安排今年部分重点工作[1]。2025年政府工作报告对经济和金融市场具体可能如何影响？请听中金公司总量以及行业为您联合解读。 宏观 积极回应多方面关切 2025 年 3 月 5 日，国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大三次会议作政府工作报告（以下简称《报告》），延续了 2024 年中央经济工作会议的基 调。《报告》将 GDP 目标被设定为 5% 左右，既考虑了短周期的稳增长需要，也 " 与中长期发展目标相衔接 " 。 CPI 通胀目标被设定为 2% 左右，在通胀偏弱 的情况下，这是一个更为务实的目标，但《报告》也指出 " 实现这些目标很不容易，必须付出艰苦努力 " 。 除了稳增长之外，《报告》也指出要大力发展 以大 AI 为代表的新质生产力，并积极防范金融领域风险， " 稳住楼市股市 " 。总体而言，《报告》对短期与长期、金融与实体等方面的问题都予以积极回 应，报告还指出 " 充实完善政策工具箱，根据形势变化动态调整政策 " ，后续我们将紧密关注各项 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a "spring rally" driven by policy expectations and domestic technological transformations, particularly in AI and new industries, which are expected to boost Chinese assets [3][7] - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable for market performance, with improvements in domestic financial data and a stable outlook for the real estate and stock markets [8][9] - The report highlights the potential for continued upward movement in China's AI core assets, suggesting that there is still room for growth despite some market congestion [10] Industry and Company Summaries Renewable Energy - The global energy storage market is projected to exceed 100 GWh in installed capacity in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a 57% year-on-year increase, driven by rising demand for renewable energy and grid support services [12] Machinery - The company maintains a strong position in the engineering machinery sector, with emerging segments and overseas business showing robust growth [13] Construction - New industries are supporting rapid growth in infrastructure contracts, with overseas business expanding steadily [14][15] Electronics - The company is benefiting from structural demand for PCBs driven by high-performance computing and AI, with plans to invest approximately 4.3 billion RMB in expanding production capacity for high-end PCBs [17] Computing - The company is positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for domestic AI computing power, with significant developments in its DCU products [19] Pharmaceuticals - The company is expected to see a significant turnaround in net profit growth, driven by new drug launches and improved performance from its subsidiary Echosens [20] Automotive - The company has established itself as a leading global supplier of automotive exterior parts, with a diverse product line and a strong global presence [22] Food and Beverage - The company is experiencing strong revenue recovery, driven by positive market feedback for its products and proactive inventory management ahead of the Spring Festival [23] Non-Bank Financials - The company is seeing robust trading activity in the spot market, with record high transaction volumes and stable investment income [24] Banking - The company is benefiting from balanced growth in corporate and retail banking, with strong loan demand in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [28]