1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price will continue to fluctuate. The IEA warns that the global oil market will face a large - scale surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day next year [1]. - The prices of fuel oil (FU and LU) are expected to be bearish, with Asian low - sulfur market facing supply and demand dilemmas and high - sulfur market supported by stable demand but with sufficient supply [1][3]. - The asphalt price is temporarily viewed bearishly due to abundant market resources, weak downstream demand, and supply decline being less than demand decline [3]. - PX&TA are expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, while the ethylene glycol price is expected to be under pressure with high supply and limited demand growth [3][5]. - The rubber price is expected to fluctuate due to increased supply and weak overseas demand [5]. - The methanol price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with potential supply changes due to Iranian device conditions and port inventory trends [5][6]. - The polyolefin price is expected to bottom - oscillate, with a shift to a supply - strong and demand - weak situation but with valuation - related factors limiting further decline [6]. - The PVC price is expected to bottom - oscillate, with high - level supply, weak domestic demand, and potential export - market changes [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 12 - month contract rose 0.2 dollars to 58.69 dollars/barrel (0.34% increase), Brent 1 - month contract rose 0.3 dollars to 63.01 dollars/barrel (0.48% increase), and SC2512 fell 2.8 yuan/barrel to 451.6 yuan/barrel (0.62% decrease). US commercial crude inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels to 427.58 million barrels as of November 7, higher than the market expectation. The IEA predicts a large - scale surplus in the global oil market next year [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 fell 3.71% to 2595 yuan/ton, LU2601 fell 4.41% to 3164 yuan/ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. Asian low - sulfur market has supply and demand issues, while high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 fell 1.05% to 3029 yuan/ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased by 18.7%, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. In November, production and consumption both declined, with supply decline less than demand [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 0.64% to 4700 yuan/ton, EG2601 rose 0.03% to 3892 yuan/ton, and PX601 rose 0.92% to 6836 yuan/ton. Some glycol devices are under maintenance. PX&TA are expected to follow the cost side, and ethylene glycol is under supply pressure [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 170 yuan/ton to 15390 yuan/ton, NR rose 220 yuan/ton to 12400 yuan/ton, and BR rose 50 yuan/ton to 10480 yuan/ton. Rubber supply increased, and overseas demand weakened [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply is currently at a high level, and Iranian devices may stop in November - December, leading to a potential decline in January arrivals. Port inventory is expected to start de - stocking from mid - December to early January [5][6]. - **Polyolefin**: The price of polyolefin products shows a downward trend in profit. It is expected to shift to a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, but valuation factors may limit further decline [6]. - **PVC**: The price oscillated on Thursday. Supply is at a high level, domestic demand is weak, and the cancellation of BIS certification may boost exports, but anti - dumping needs attention [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on November 14, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the change of basis rate compared with previous days, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA report shows that last week, US crude inventory increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. As of November 7, US commercial crude inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels to 427.58 million barrels, and Cushing crude inventory decreased by 346,000 barrels [12]. - The IEA warns that the global oil market will face a large - scale surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day next year, which is equivalent to nearly 4% of global oil demand and much higher than other forecasts [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are 29 figures showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14][15][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are 31 figures showing the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [30][34][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are 15 figures showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][44][47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are 10 figures showing the spreads between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][60][63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are 2 figures showing the production profits of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Gas, etc. Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/Propylene, etc. Analyst), each with rich experience and achievements [71][72][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall energy - chemical market shows a volatile trend. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all expected to run in a volatile manner, with different influencing factors for each variety [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.91 to $61.04 per barrel, a 1.51% increase; Brent January contract rose $1.1 to $65.16 per barrel, a 1.72% increase; SC2512 closed at 468.9 yuan per barrel, up 9.7 yuan or 2.11%. US crude inventory is expected to increase, while gasoline and distillate inventories are expected to decline. Asian gasoline refining profit reached the highest level since January 2024. The market shows certain linkages, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The Asian low - sulfur market faces supply and demand problems, but the East - West arbitrage window is basically closed. The Asian high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand but has sufficient supply. The market structure of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to reverse [1]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The market has abundant resources but weak demand, and the spot price has reached a nearly three - year low. Although the production in November has decreased, the short - term supply still faces pressure. The price of asphalt is treated with a bearish view [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 closed down. PX&TA futures prices rebounded, and the processing margin on the disk narrowed. The supply side has maintenance plans, and the downstream polyester maintains a high operating rate. It is expected that PX&TA will follow the cost side to fluctuate in the short term. The supply pressure of ethylene glycol remains, and the price is expected to be under pressure [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The rubber production is seasonally increasing, and the supply pressure is increasing. The downstream demand is weak overseas, and the EU's investigations have increased export concerns. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and Iranian devices may stop production from late November to December. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain high, and the downstream demand will weaken marginally after the e - commerce activities. It is expected that polyolefin prices will enter a volatile and weak stage [7]. - **PVC**: The supply maintains a high - level oscillation, the domestic demand slows down, and exports are affected by India's anti - dumping policy. It is expected that PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of energy - chemical varieties on November 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - Last week, US crude inventory was expected to increase, and gasoline and distillate inventories were expected to decline. As of the week of November 7, US crude inventory was expected to increase by about 1.2 million barrels [12]. - Although the US imposed new sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Russian oil shipments remained stable in early November and are expected to decline from the end of November [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][16][19][22][25][27][30][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][38][39][42][43][44]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trend charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio trend charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [63][65]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trend charts of LLDPE and PP [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and achievements in different energy - chemical fields [76][77][78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil showed a rebound trend, gradually returning to the levels at the beginning of the month. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the spot market's transaction premium did not strengthen significantly, indicating no obvious supply shortage, but the export situation of Russia needs to be observed. For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is rumored that state - owned refineries are converting some low - sulfur export quotas into refined oil export quotas, which will lead to a decline in future port spot supply, making the LU price stronger than the FU price. However, as the domestic price rises, domestic traders may increase imports, which will resist the upward price trend. - Valuation: FU is between 2600 - 2800, and LU is between 3150 - 3350. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU remains weak in the short term, while LU is still strong. 2) Inter - period: The LU monthly spread structure has been reversed and will remain so before the number of warehouse receipts increases. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread fluctuates at a high level; the LU - FU spread will gradually rebound in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - **Refinery Operation**: The content shows the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025. [6] - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It presents the maintenance volumes of global CDU devices, hydrocracking devices, FCC devices, and coking devices from 2018 - 2025. [9][11][13][14] - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume**: It shows the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025. [19][20] Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025. [23] Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of heavy oil in Singapore, fuel oil in European ARA, heavy distillates in Fujairah, and residual fuel oil in the US from 2018 - 2025. [27][29][30] Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, etc. from 2018 - 2025. [34][35][36][37] - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, etc. from 2018 - 2025. [38][39][40][42][44] - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: It shows the spot prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil in the New York Harbor, etc. from 2018 - 2025. [45] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2025, as well as the prices of LU and FU futures contracts from 2021 - 2025. [48][49][51][52][54][56] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: It shows the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2025. [59] - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025. [60][61][62][63] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: It shows the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025. [65] Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025. [70][72][73] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil, including data from China, the Middle East, the US, etc. [74] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil, including data from Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, etc. [76] Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: This week, the Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices declined, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU and LU were weaker than the overseas market, and the spreads began to shrink. - **Logic**: For FU, the short positions still led the long positions, causing the FU to be weaker than the overseas spot, and the spread continued to shrink. For LU, the number of warehouse receipts increased significantly at the beginning of the delivery period, the market view turned short - term bearish, the long positions decreased rapidly, and the spread of LU relative to the overseas spot began to decline. [79][80] - **Spot Market Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil from 2021 - 2025. [83][85] - **Futures Market Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads of FU and LU futures contracts relative to Singapore from 2021 - 2025. [90][91] - **FU and LU Position and Volume Changes**: It shows the position and volume changes of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts from 2020 - 2025. [94][95][96][99][100][102] - **FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: It shows the quantity changes of FU and LU warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025. [105][106]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Low sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [3] Core Viewpoints - The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% inventory increase in the fourth quarter. Despite OPEC+ pausing production increases in the first quarter of next year, the market supply - demand surplus may still expand. Short - term oil prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after geopolitical risks are priced again [1] - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be loose in the medium term, facing a callback pressure on high valuations, while the low - sulfur market has short - term support, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to widen [2] - The asphalt market has multiple fundamental negatives, with a decline in the main contract and a trend of negative year - on - year changes in shipments and an increase in social inventory [2] - The LPG contract continues to oscillate narrowly. The overall demand is expected to improve, with a slight decrease in refinery storage capacity ratio and an increase in port storage capacity ratio [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% inventory increase in the fourth quarter, including a 5.9% increase in crude oil inventory and a 2.1% decrease in refined oil inventory. The inventory increase in upstream crude oil is concentrated in transit, and the surplus pressure will be more obvious in on - shore crude oil inventory [1] - The OPEC+ meeting on Sunday slightly exceeded expectations by pausing production increases in the first quarter of next year, but the market supply - demand surplus may still expand marginally in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The medium - term surplus pressure in the oil market persists, and short - term oil prices will oscillate [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be loose in the medium term due to factors such as full pricing of Russian supply reduction, high seasonal cracking spreads, end of peak power generation demand, and steady OPEC+ production increase, facing a callback pressure on high valuations [2] - The low - sulfur market has short - term support due to the accidental shutdown of part of the Kuwaiti Al - Zour refinery, which is expected to resume by early November. The restart of the Dangote refinery eases the regional supply pressure to some extent. The market also focuses on the progress of fuel oil quota conversion, which may affect the port supply structure [2] Asphalt - The BU futures market rose with crude oil in the morning but then declined due to multiple fundamental negatives, with the main contract closing down 0.58% [2] - In late October, some refineries in Shandong and Hebei switched to producing residual oil or shut down, resulting in a week - on - week decrease in production. Construction in the north is coming to an end, while there is still a rush - to - build demand in the south. The year - on - year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has turned negative since late October, and this trend is likely to continue [2] - The decline in the overall commercial inventory has slowed down, and the social inventory has increased year - on - year for the first time this year at the end of October [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG contract continues to oscillate narrowly. The weekly LPG commercial volume has slightly decreased, while the arrival volume has increased significantly [3] - The improvement in chemical profits has promoted demand growth, and the significant cooling in many places has boosted the demand for combustion. The market expects overall demand improvement. The refinery storage capacity ratio has slightly decreased, while the port storage capacity ratio has increased [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: October 31, 2025 - Research Analyst: Xu Liang Z0002220 - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - High-sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil, but its volatility increases due to high inventories and the impact of arbitrage cargoes [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - Geopolitical disturbances and the lack of significant increase in OPEC supply have led to a strong and volatile crude oil price, supporting the cost center of high-sulfur fuel oil [3]. - The stable marine demand for high-sulfur fuel oil supports the fundamentals, while the supply of non-sanctioned resources is tight [3]. - The fuel oil inventory in Fujairah increased by 25.92% week-on-week to 8.86 million barrels, reaching a new high for the year, indicating oversupply [3]. - The stable inflow of low-sulfur components from the Middle East and West Africa into Asia, combined with the continuous output of high-sulfur resources from Russia, suppresses the market structure [3]. 3.2 Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data | Location | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 2025 - 10 - 30 | 2025 - 10 - 24 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 454.24 | 451.08 | 448.21 | 3.16 | 6.03 | | Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 418.56 | 417.47 | 419.27 | 1.09 | -0.71 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/barrel) | 68.71 | 68.43 | 69.07 | 0.28 | 0.13 | | China LU Futures M + 3 (CNY/ton) | 3306 | 3272 | 3250 | 34 | 56 | | LU Futures M + 3 - Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 2 (USD/ton) | 10.4709 | 5.1815 | 6.7305 | 5.2894 | 3.7404 | | Singapore - Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 33.87 | 31.7 | 24.56 | 2.17 | 9.31 | | Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 2 Crack | 7.38 | 7.17 | 6.05 | 0.21 | 1.33 | | Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 2 Crack | 1.71 | 1.88 | 1.56 | -0.17 | 0.15 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 2 Crack | 4.57 | 4.42 | 4.3 | 0.15 | 0.27 | | Singapore Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | -0.65 | -0.81 | -3.05 | 0.16 | 2.4 | | Rotterdam Low-Sulfur Monthly Spread | 1.16 | 1.1 | -0.32 | 0.06 | 1.48 | | US Gulf of Mexico Low-Sulfur Monthly Spread | 2.4765 | 1.778 | -0.6985 | 0.6985 | 3.175 | | LuM + 3 - M + 4 Monthly Spread (USD) | 2.9522 | 3.3718 | -1.6847 | -0.4196 | 4.6369 | | Singapore High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 2 | 69.96 | 69.23 | 63.28 | 0.73 | 6.68 | [5] 3.3 High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Price and Spread Data | Location | 2025 - 10 - 31 | 2025 - 10 - 30 | 2025 - 10 - 24 | Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore High-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 381.05 | 378.35 | 392.35 | 2.7 | -11.3 | | Rotterdam High-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/ton) | 394.95 | 392.6 | 397.1 | 2.35 | -2.15 | | US Gulf of Mexico High-Sulfur Fuel Oil M + 1 (USD/barrel) | 59 | 58.56 | 59.44 | 0.44 | -0.44 | | China FU Futures M + 1 Price (CNY/ton) | 2959 | 2968 | 2916 | -9 | 43 | | Singapore High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | -3.22 | -3.5 | -1.62 | 0.28 | -1.6 | | Rotterdam High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 8.47 | 8.5 | 9.38 | -0.03 | -0.91 | | US Gulf of Mexico High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Monthly Spread | 6.604 | 5.9055 | 6.2865 | 0.6985 | 0.3175 | [24] 3.4 Other Spread Data - FU Monthly Spread (USD/ton): 26.4127 (2025 - 10 - 31), 25.3161 (2025 - 10 - 30), 13.6135 (2025 - 10 - 24), 1.0966 (Daily Change), 12.7992 (Weekly Change) - Singapore High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 1: 72.54 (2025 - 10 - 31), 71.92 (2025 - 10 - 30), 53.48 (2025 - 10 - 24), 0.62 (Daily Change), 19.06 (Weekly Change) - Rotterdam High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 1: 24.45 (2025 - 10 - 31), 25.97 (2025 - 10 - 30), 29.27 (2025 - 10 - 24), -1.52 (Daily Change), -4.82 (Weekly Change) - US Gulf of Mexico High-Low Sulfur Spread M + 1: 64.135 (2025 - 10 - 31), 64.4525 (2025 - 10 - 30), 64.4525 (2025 - 10 - 24), -0.3175 (Daily Change), -0.3175 (Weekly Change) - China High-Sulfur M + 2 - Singapore High-Sulfur M + 1: 8.0261 (2025 - 10 - 31), 13.6029 (2025 - 10 - 30), 9.2148 (2025 - 10 - 24), -5.5768 (Daily Change), -1.1887 (Weekly Change) - Singapore High-Sulfur Fuel Oil vs Brent M + 1 Crack (USD/barrel): -4.74 (2025 - 10 - 31), -4.76 (2025 - 10 - 30), -3.38 (2025 - 10 - 24), 0.02 (Daily Change), -1.36 (Weekly Change) [35]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年11月2日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：价格大幅反弹，LU强势明显 观点 本周燃料油价格维持反弹趋势，价格逐步回到月初水平。高硫方面，目前来看市场已经完成对俄罗斯制裁的计价，虽然价格持续上行，但现 货成交暂时没有出现明显的转变，需要继续观察11月内市场各方 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 日期： 2025年11月02日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 上游 1、低硫燃料油,燃料油 2、沥青 3、LPG,丙烯 02 聚酯芳烃 1、PTA,MEG,对二甲苯 2、瓶片,短纤 3、苯乙烯 03 煤化工及烯烃 1、LLDPE,PP 2、甲醇 3、尿素 04 氯碱 1、玻璃,纯碱 2、烧碱,PVC 氯碱及轻工 1、橡胶 2、合成橡胶 3、纸浆 4、胶版印刷纸 2 CONTENTS 01 05 国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年11月2日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 3 CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to continue oscillating. The uncertainty in the crude oil market lies in the supply - side structural contradictions caused by sanctions, but during the current off - season of demand, the overall conflict is not obvious, and the impact on prices is relatively mild [1]. - The absolute prices of fuel oil (FU and LU), asphalt (BU), polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro - factors [3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the WTI December contract rose 0.09 dollars to 60.57 dollars/barrel (0.15% increase), the Brent December contract rose 0.08 dollars to 65.00 dollars/barrel (0.12% increase), and the SC2512 closed at 461.4 yuan/barrel, down 1.1 yuan/barrel (0.28% decrease). The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and trade achievements have positive impacts, but sanctions on Russian producers and potential OPEC+ production increase add uncertainties [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.43% to 2751 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) rose 0.62% to 3255 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur market structure has weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2601) fell 0.4% to 3254 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will ease in early November, and there are still construction rush expectations in some markets [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4570 yuan/ton, down 1.42%; EG2601 closed at 4032 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The cost support of PX and TA has weakened, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. There is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 225 yuan/ton to 15400 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 195 yuan/ton to 12525 yuan/ton. The raw material prices of rubber are firm, demand is okay, and the postponement of tariff increase may improve demand expectations [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and overseas Iranian plants will be restricted by winter gas rationing. Although the arrival volume has decreased due to sanctions, the short - term port supply is still relatively large, and methanol is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain at a high level, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short - term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and polyolefin prices are expected to enter an oscillatory phase [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak due to Indian anti - dumping policies and Sino - US trade frictions. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on October 30 and 29, 2025, as well as the quantiles of the latest basis rates in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, and the positive results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated concerns about the decline in economic activities caused by tariffs and trade wars [13]. - Some Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian oil after the US blacklisted two major Russian producers last week, but Indian Oil said it would "never stop" buying Russian crude. Traders are closely watching the next moves of Russian oil buyers [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts presenting the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., over different time periods [33][38][40]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [48][50][53]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts depicting the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [63][66][71]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of products like LLDPE and PP [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Analyst for Crude Oil, etc.), Di Yilin (Analyst for Natural Rubber, etc.), and Peng Haibo (Analyst for Methanol, etc.), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and professional capabilities introduced [77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall risk preference in the crude oil market has improved, and oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - factors on oil prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.33 to $60.48 per barrel (0.55% increase), Brent December contract rose $0.52 to $64.92 per barrel (0.81% increase), and SC2512 closed at 465.1 yuan per barrel, up 5.9 yuan (1.28% increase). EIA inventory data showed a comprehensive decline in inventories. Mexican national oil company's production decreased year - on - year. The Fed cut interest rates, and the subsequent rate - cut path is uncertain. The market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The Asian low - sulfur market structure weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable. FU and LU absolute prices will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. In November, the refinery's asphalt production plan decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory levels all decreased. The supply pressure will ease, and there is still a rush - work expectation in some markets. The BU absolute price will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester improved, and the fundamentals of TA improved. However, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter, and its price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber contract fell. The social inventory of natural rubber decreased. Due to the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting and good demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol was reported. The domestic overhauled devices are gradually resuming production, and the overseas Iranian devices will be restricted by winter gas curtailment. The short - term port supply is still abundant, and methanol prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The short - term production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and prices are expected to enter a fluctuating stage [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China were reported. The supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on October 29 and 28, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. It also shows the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - US EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel inventories last week exceeded analysts' expectations, forcing the market to re - evaluate the expectation of a large surplus in the oil market [11] - Trump predicted that his talks with Chinese leaders would yield good results. The talks are scheduled for Thursday at a summit in South Korea. The positive news about the Sino - US talks and the US - South Korea trade agreement eased investors' concerns about the economic recession caused by Trump's tariffs and trade wars [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as the spread between 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts of fuel oil, and the spread between the main and sub - main contracts of asphalt [39] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [55] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It provides the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP from 2018 to 2025 [63] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [67] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry chain [68] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis and research on related varieties [69] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. He has a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and relevant professional qualifications [70]