Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Energy Chemical Options Strategy Morning Report dated August 7, 2025, covering energy, polyolefin, polyester, alkali chemical, and other energy chemical options [2][3] - The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - Provides the latest price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change of various option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc [4] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Presents the volume PCR and open interest PCR of various option varieties, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [5] Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Shows the pressure points, support points, and the maximum open interest of call and put options of various option varieties, which are determined by the strike prices with the maximum open interest of call and put options [6] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Displays the at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and historical volatility of various option varieties, with the weighted implied volatility calculated using volume-weighted average [7] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Different Option Types Energy Options - **Crude Oil**: The US crude oil inventories increased. The market showed a short-term upward resistance and downward trend. Implied volatility was near the average, and the open interest PCR indicated a sideways market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG**: Factory inventory decreased slightly, and port inventory was at a high level. The market was short-term bearish. Implied volatility was at a high level, and the open interest PCR indicated strong bearish power. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Alcohol Options - **Methanol**: The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased, and the order backlog also decreased. The market was weak with resistance. Implied volatility was near the average, and the open interest PCR indicated a sideways and weak market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate remained stable, but production profit was under pressure. The market was in a wide-range sideways and weak pattern. Implied volatility was near the average, and the open interest PCR indicated a sideways market. Strategies include constructing a short volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Polyolefin Options - **Polypropylene**: The number of maintenance production lines decreased in July, and the total output increased. The market was weak with resistance. Implied volatility was near the average, and the open interest PCR indicated a weakening market. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Rubber Options - **Rubber**: The opening area and output of Hainan natural rubber decreased in the first half of 2025. The market was bearish. Implied volatility decreased to near the average, and the open interest PCR indicated a bearish market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12] Polyester Options - **PTA**: The factory inventory continued to accumulate, and the processing fee was low. The market was bearish with resistance. Implied volatility was at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicated a weakening market. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [13] Alkali Chemical Options - **Caustic Soda**: The average utilization rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly. The market was in a weak and sideways pattern. Implied volatility was at a high level, and the open interest PCR indicated a weak market. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] - **Soda Ash**: The factory inventory decreased, but the total inventory increased. The market was in a significant decline with resistance. Implied volatility was at a high level, and the open interest PCR indicated strong bearish pressure. Strategies include constructing a short volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Other Energy Chemical Options - **Urea**: Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. The market was in a low-level sideways pattern. Implied volatility was near the average, and the open interest PCR indicated a weak market. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15] Group 7: Option Charts - Provides various charts for different option types, including price trends, trading volume and open interest, open interest PCR, implied volatility, and historical volatility cones, to help analyze the market situation of each option variety [17][36][55]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report: Coal Turmoil Resurfaces, EG Slightly Strengthens [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" logic has temporarily ended, and price trends have returned to fundamentals, with the previous premium being rapidly squeezed out. For ethylene glycol, the inventory accumulation in the third quarter is small, the supply-demand contradiction is not significant, the downward space is limited under low inventory, and the inventory accumulation expectation is further postponed. After the correction, the valuation is relatively neutral, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range following market sentiment [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ethylene glycol is 4200 - 4700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.4%. For PX, it is 6500 - 7400, with a volatility of 11.78% and a percentile of 17.7%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5300, with a volatility of 9.30% and a percentile of 4.6%. For bottle chips, it is 5800 - 6500, with a volatility of 7.92% and a percentile of 0.9% [2] Polyester Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in ethylene glycol prices, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a hedging ratio of 25% in the entry range of 4450 - 4550 to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2509P4350) to prevent large price drops and sell call options (EG2509C4500) to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% in the entry range of 10 - 15 [2] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a hedging ratio of 50% in the entry range of 4280 - 4330 to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell put options (EG2509P4350) with a hedging ratio of 75% in the entry range of 20 - 30 to collect option premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops [2] Core Contradictions - The "anti-involution" logic has ended, and prices have returned to fundamentals. Ethylene glycol has limited downward space in the third quarter due to small inventory accumulation and low inventory levels, and is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] 利多解读 - On August 4, the Emergency Management Department released the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations", causing coal prices to rebound and production costs to increase [3] 利空解读 - There are market rumors that large filament manufacturers' FDY is suffering serious losses and there are plans to cut production, but the implementation remains to be observed. The "anti-involution" sentiment has cooled after the July 30 Politburo meeting, and valuations have returned to fundamentals. The restart of previously shut - down Saudi Arabian plants has led to an upward revision of September import expectations [6] Polyester Raw Material Production Device Summary - The report lists the production devices of MEG, PX, and PTA put into operation before May 30, 2005, including their regions, enterprises, addresses, capacities, production times, operating statuses, total capacities, capacity proportions, and monthly production impacts [7] Polyester Daily Table - It provides price, spread, warehouse receipt, processing fee, and profit data for various polyester - related products on August 6, 2025, August 5, 2025, and July 30, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★, implying a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: ★★★, meaning a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ★★★, denoting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - PX: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Glass: ★★★, denoting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Report's Core View - The chemical futures market shows a mixed performance, with different products having different supply - demand relations and price trends [2][3][5] - Some products are affected by factors such as device restarts, seasonal demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed up at the end of the session, but still in a downward pattern. Downstream demand has some support, but supply is expected to increase [2] - Polyolefin futures closed up, with polyethylene having stable supply and some improvement in demand, while polypropylene is in a seasonal demand slump [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated narrowly, with supply rising and demand weak, but import pressure is expected to ease [3] - Styrene futures prices declined slightly. Overall, there is a slight decrease in supply and a slight increase in demand, but factory inventory may increase [3] Polyester - PX and PTA are in a weak - oscillating pattern due to falling oil prices and the demand off - season. Supply is increasing, and there is a need to watch for demand recovery and valuation repair [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded with technical support and overseas device shutdown. Supply is expected to increase, and the upward drive is limited [5] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices follow raw materials. Short fiber may be more bullish in the medium - term, while bottle chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose slightly due to coal cost news. Coastal ports are expected to accumulate inventory, but there may be a demand recovery in the peak season [6] - Urea futures prices rose sharply. The current supply - demand is loose, and attention should be paid to macro and export policies [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices rebounded at the end of the session. Cost support increased, but supply is expected to rise and demand is weak, so the price may oscillate weakly [7] - Caustic soda prices oscillated weakly. The comprehensive profit improved, but the long - term supply pressure remains, and the price is expected to be under pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices rose sharply. Supply is high, and the market is facing a weak reality, but the price is expected to be difficult to break the previous low [8] - Glass futures prices were weak. Production and sales are insufficient, and the market has returned to reality trading [8]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment for bulk chemicals is weak due to the decline in crude oil prices. The PTA market shows a weakening spot basis and falling spot prices, while the ethylene glycol market experiences a slight decline in spot prices and a slightly stronger basis negotiation. The polyester market has weakening production and sales, and the downstream weaving profit is shrinking, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price dropped from 527.9 yuan/barrel on August 1st to 514.3 yuan/barrel on August 4th, a decrease of 13.6 yuan [2]. - **PTA**: The主力期 price decreased from 4744 yuan/ton to 4698 yuan/ton, a drop of 46 yuan; the spot price fell from 4750 yuan/ton to 4690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan. The spot processing fee decreased slightly by 0.4 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased by 3.6 yuan/ton. The PTA - SC spread increased by 52.83 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0204. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 600 to 27131 [2]. - **PX**: The CFR China PX price decreased from 846 to 838, a drop of 8; the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 8 to 234. The PX operating rate increased by 0.82 percentage points to 78.11% [2]. - **MEG**: The主力期 price dropped from 4405 yuan/ton to 4389 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan; the MEG - naphtha spread increased slightly by 0.8 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased from 4480 to 4455, a drop of 25 yuan. The basis of the main contract increased by 15 to 78. The MEG operating rate remained unchanged at 58.81% [2]. Polyester Products - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F decreased by 25 yuan and 70 yuan respectively, while the price of DTY150D/48F remained unchanged. The cash flows of POY, DTY improved by 35 yuan and 60 yuan respectively, and the cash flow of FDY decreased by 10 yuan. The production and sales rate of filament increased from 25% to 32% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 25 yuan to 6575 yuan/ton. The cash flow increased by 35 yuan to 173 yuan/ton, and the production and sales rate decreased from 56% to 49% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The price of semi - bright chips decreased by 45 yuan to 5800 yuan/ton. The cash flow increased by 15 yuan to - 52 yuan/ton, and the production and sales rate increased from 59% to 63% [2]. Industry Operating Conditions - The PTA operating rate increased by 2.75 percentage points to 76.81%, the MEG operating rate remained unchanged at 58.81%, and the polyester load remained unchanged at 86.15% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions and profit - taking on dips, and left - side trading for Russia's geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing as enterprise profits are high and production starts to recover, while demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. High inventory and weakening supply - demand fundamentals put pressure on prices [4]. - Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern. Although the current price is not high and the room for further decline is limited, it is not advisable to be overly bearish. After the cooling of the domestic commodity sentiment, volatility is expected to gradually decline [6]. - For rubber, there are different views from bulls and bears. Bulls focus on potential production cuts in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal off - season demand, and potential under - performance of production cuts. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and trade quickly in the short - term [8][10]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. After the anti - involution sentiment fades, prices have dropped significantly in the short - term [10]. - For benzene styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upwards [13]. - Polyethylene prices will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short - term, with high production capacity release pressure in August. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to follow crude oil and oscillate higher in July, with the cost side likely to dominate the market under the background of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season [16]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking. With a neutral valuation, there are short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [19]. - PTA is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, but due to low inventory levels and the approaching end of the off - season for polyester and terminal production, the negative feedback pressure on PX is small. There are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [20]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong. With high overseas device loads and expected increases in arrivals, there is short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price:** WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.02, or 1.52%, to $66.24; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.84, or 1.21%, to $68.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 13.60 yuan, or 2.58%, to 514.3 yuan [1]. - **Data:** China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.07 million barrels to 90.85 million barrels, a 1.17% decrease; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 102.78 million barrels, a 0.70% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.36 million barrels to 193.64 million barrels, a 0.18% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Price:** On August 4, the 09 contract fell 3 yuan/ton to 2390 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 [4]. - **Fundamentals:** Affected by overall commodity sentiment, it will gradually return to its own fundamentals. Supply pressure will increase as enterprise profits are high and production starts to recover. Demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. Port inventory is increasing rapidly, and the basis and inter - month spread are falling [4]. Urea - **Price:** On August 4, the 09 contract rose 24 yuan/ton to 1733 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of + 17 [6]. - **Fundamentals:** Supply is slightly decreasing but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Enterprise profits are poor, and production is expected to increase gradually. Export demand is lower than expected, and domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production for autumn is starting, and enterprise inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Price:** NR and RU rebounded after a decline [8]. - **Fundamentals:** Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls expect production cuts and improved demand, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations and seasonal off - season demand. Tire factory operating rates are decreasing, and natural rubber inventories are increasing [8][9]. - **Operation Suggestion:** Adopt a neutral approach and trade quickly in the short - term. Consider long positions in RU2601 and short positions in RU2509 for opportunistic band trading [10]. PVC - **Price:** The PVC09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4981 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4960 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 121 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 137 (- 1) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals:** Cost is stable, overall production capacity utilization is 76.8%, with an increase of 0.05%. Downstream demand is weak, and inventories are increasing. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level, and valuations are under pressure [10]. Benzene Styrene - **Price:** The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [12]. - **Fundamentals:** The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has room for upward repair. Cost support exists, supply is increasing, port inventory is decreasing significantly, and demand is oscillating upwards in the off - season [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Price:** The futures price fell [15]. - **Fundamentals:** Market expects an improvement in China's PMI in July, and cost support exists. Spot prices are falling, and inventory pressure is loosening. Demand is weak in the off - season, and there is high production capacity release pressure in August [15]. - **Operation Suggestion:** Hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Price:** The futures price fell [16]. - **Fundamentals:** Shandong refinery profits are rebounding, and production capacity utilization is expected to increase. Demand is weak in the off - season, and cost is likely to dominate the market. There is limited planned production capacity release in August [16]. PX - **Price:** The PX09 contract fell 58 yuan to 6754 yuan, PX CFR fell 8 dollars to 838 dollars, the basis was 142 (- 18) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 26 (+4) yuan [18]. - **Fundamentals:** PX production capacity utilization is high, downstream PTA short - term maintenance is increasing, and overall production capacity utilization is decreasing, but PTA inventory is low, and polyester and terminal production are approaching the end of the off - season. PX is expected to continue de - stocking [18][19]. PTA - **Price:** The PTA09 contract fell 46 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price fell 60 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 15 (- 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 (+4) yuan [20]. - **Fundamentals:** PTA production capacity utilization is decreasing, and new devices are being put into operation. Supply is expected to increase, but due to low inventory levels and the approaching end of the off - season, the negative feedback pressure on PX is small [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Price:** The EG09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4389 yuan, the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4455 yuan, the basis was 78 (+5) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 28 (+6) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals:** Production capacity utilization is slightly decreasing, overseas device loads are high, and arrivals are expected to increase. Downstream demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, but inventory de - stocking is expected to slow down, and valuations are under pressure [21].

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain continues to face pressure due to weakened cost support and a shift in supply - demand dynamics [1] - The current polyester industry chain is under triple pressure of loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory, and the price center of the industry chain is expected to remain under pressure in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - **Prices**: On August 1st, the PX主力合约 closed at 6,812.0 yuan/ton, down 1.67% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 126.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力合约 closed at 4,744.0 yuan/ton, down 1.33% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 86.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil主力合约 closed at 71.78 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 69.36 US dollars/barrel [2] - **Supply**: The cost center of the PX link is suppressed by the weakening of crude oil. The continuous low processing fee may lead to the expectation of a reduction in the load of some devices. The centralized maintenance of large - scale PTA plants has gradually ended, and the high processing fee drives the operating rate to remain high, and the supply - side pressure has increased marginally [2] - **Demand**: The single - day trading volume of Light Textile City has reached a new high this year, but the sustainability of terminal orders is questionable. After the seasonal restocking ends, it may return to a sluggish state. The polyester operating rate remains at a high level of 89%, but the low cash flow and high finished - product inventory form a negative feedback, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of subsequent production cuts on the PTA demand side. Under the overseas clothing destocking cycle, the incremental momentum of export orders is insufficient [3] - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventories have been destocked to a medium - low level in history for three consecutive weeks, but the restart of devices in August and the narrowing of the export window will reverse the inventory trend. The explicit inventory in the PX link is at a low level, but the implicit storage capacity is under pressure. The high PTA processing fee stimulates the risk of the implicit inventory becoming explicit. It is expected to gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle after mid - August [3] 3.1.2 Polyester - **Prices**: On August 1st, the short - fiber主力合约 closed at 6,382.0 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,530.0 yuan/ton, down 65.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 148.0 yuan/ton [4] - **Supply - demand - inventory situation**: The PX and PTA futures prices have continued to decline, indicating weakened upstream cost support. The terminal textile demand has weakened marginally. The inventory of polyester products is significantly higher than the five - year average, and the entire industry chain is under the triple pressure of loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory. It is expected that the price center of the industry chain will remain under pressure in the short term [4] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of PX futures all decreased on August 1st compared with July 31st. The Chinese main port CFR price of PX spot remained unchanged, while the South Korean FOB price decreased. The PX basis increased significantly [5] - **PTA**: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of PTA futures all declined. The Chinese main port CFR price of PTA spot remained unchanged. The PTA basis, 1 - 5 spread, 9 - 1 spread decreased, while the 5 - 9 spread increased. The PTA import profit decreased [5] - **Short - fiber**: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of short - fiber futures all decreased. The spot price in the East China market decreased, and the PF basis increased. The PF 1 - 5 spread and 9 - 1 spread decreased, while the PF 5 - 9 spread increased [5] - **Other products**: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, and ethylene glycol decreased slightly, while the prices of CFR Japan naphtha, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The processing spreads of most products changed to varying degrees, and the trading volume of Light Textile City increased [5][6] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 1st, the annual rate of the US core PCE inflation unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8%, and consumer spending was almost stagnant. The US Treasury Secretary expected to announce the nomination for the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. The Japanese central bank maintained the interest rate at 0.5% and raised the inflation forecast. The total value of global gold demand in the second quarter soared to a new record of 132 billion US dollars [7] - On July 31st, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, but two directors voted against it and advocated for a rate cut. The market's bet on the Federal Reserve's annual rate cut decreased by 8BP to 36BP. The US economic growth in the second quarter exceeded expectations [7][8] 3.3.2 Supply - demand - demand aspect - On August 1st, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 593.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.21%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 468.0 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 127.0 million meters [9] 3.4 Appendix - The supply side of PX may see a decrease in device load due to low processing fees, while the PTA operating rate is high, maintaining sufficient supply. The demand side has short - term support, but its sustainability needs attention. The inventory side may shift from low inventory to inventory accumulation, and future prices may fluctuate or weaken [36][37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - This week, commodity prices have retreated, leading to a weakening in the petrochemical sector. Continuous attention is required on the progress of phasing out old facilities and upgrading within the petrochemical industry [2] - The oil and petrochemical index closed at 2262.71 points, down 2.94% from last week, indicating a weaker performance compared to other sectors [3][7] - In the upstream sector, geopolitical factors may provide a premium for oil, benefiting upstream stocks. In the refining sector, a recovery in demand and progress in eliminating outdated capacity would be favorable for midstream refining [2] Summary by Sections Oil - Energy prices have fluctuated, with Brent crude oil futures and TTF natural gas futures closing at $69.54 per barrel and €33.81 per megawatt-hour, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.1% and 4.2% from last week [10] - U.S. crude oil inventories have risen, with total crude and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) at 1,257,771 thousand barrels, an increase of 7,087 thousand barrels [15] Polyester - The price of polyester filament remains stable, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6,680, 7,930, and 6,930 yuan per ton, respectively. The price differentials have decreased by 101 yuan per ton [18] - The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have increased, with operating rates for filament and downstream looms at 91.5% and 55.5%, respectively, both showing slight declines [22] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) are 7,710 and 8,050 yuan per ton, with changes of 0.13% and -1.11% from last week. The petrochemical inventory for olefins has increased by 70,000 tons, totaling 800,000 tons [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for polyester is "oscillating", with an expectation of being mainly bearish due to the lack of obvious driving factors [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the polyester market has significantly weakened, and the fundamentals of PTA have slightly deteriorated. There are mixed factors in supply, demand, inventory, basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policies, leading to an oscillating market outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Polyester load has declined, reducing PTA demand. PTA port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $240, while the profit margins of alkylation transfer and TDP are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains around $100 [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester remains at 88%. The main polyester production cuts are concentrated in short - fiber and bottle - chip varieties, which will affect polyester load. As PTA prices recover, the load of the weaving end has declined [3]. - **Inventory**: PTA port inventory has decreased by 35,000 tons this week, entering a destocking cycle [3]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has weakened rapidly. As PTA device profits recover, the number of devices has increased rapidly, and market liquidity is slightly tight [3]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha is $240, and the spread between PX and MX has shrunk. PTA processing fees are maintained at around 250 yuan and have contracted [3]. - **Valuation**: PTA prices are at a moderately low level. As reforming devices gradually recover, aromatics supply has increased, and the expansion of gasoline profits has boosted demand [3]. - **Macro - policy**: There is uncertainty in India's oil import policy from Russia due to Trump's threat of punishment, but Indian officials say the policy remains unchanged [3][9]. - **Investment View**: The market is expected to oscillate, mainly bearish due to the lack of obvious driving factors [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: The US is sanctioning Russian crude oil. Trump threatened to punish India if it does not cut off Russian oil imports, but Indian officials will continue to import [5][9]. - **Gasoline**: Demand is strong during the peak season. North American refinery loads remain high. Diesel price increases drive up crude oil prices, and crude oil inventory has increased continuously. Refinery operating rates are high, gasoline production exceeds 9.9 million barrels, but imports have decreased. Finished gasoline inventory decline supports crude oil and gasoline prices. The spread between European gasoline and naphtha remains at $150 [10][16][24]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **Domestic Reforming Devices**: Loads are gradually recovering. North American reforming device profit margins remain unchanged, while reforming octane profit margins have slightly increased, and BTX extraction profit margins have slightly declined. Aromatics extraction demand can be met internally [27][43]. - **Selective Disproportionation**: Profits have shrunk. The economic viability of North American TDP and STDP is weak, and MX supply may decrease, but STDP profit margins have been positive for about two months [44][50]. - **Polyester Load**: It has started to decline. PX pricing is closely linked to futures after the listing of PX futures. PTA processing intervals are long - term below 500 yuan, and option - based income - enhancement schemes are more widely used. Short - fiber and bottle - chip industries are in the capacity - expansion cycle, and overseas demand is an important variable, with new export opportunities along the "Belt and Road" [51][55]. - **Reforming Device Maintenance**: It is gradually returning. Asian naphtha markets have strengthened slightly, and the cracking spread of naphtha - Brent crude oil has improved. Asian gasoline remains strong, but gasoline reforming profit margins have declined. Asian spot MX supply is still sufficient [56][57]. - **Gasoline and Aromatics Reforming**: Both have strengthened. Domestic commodity sentiment has weakened, polyester downstream load has decreased to 88%. PTA spot has become slightly more abundant, and port inventory has decreased. PTA basis has dropped from 0 to - 20. Some reforming device overhauls have been postponed, and bottle - chip manufacturers have started production - cut plans [63]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices have rebounded due to rising coal prices and improved macro - sentiment. Overseas device overhauls, especially in Saudi Arabia, have been postponed, and future arrivals are expected to decrease. Polyester production and sales have weakened, and the industry has entered an overhaul cycle, which has a negative impact on the market [70][77]. - **Gasoline**: Profits have recovered, and the load of major refineries has increased [79]. - **Polyester**: Downstream demand has weakened, and bottle - chip and short - fiber production facilities are undergoing maintenance. Raw material prices have risen, while terminal demand has weakened [87][94].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - MEG: After the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range based on the fundamentals. In the third quarter, the inventory accumulation is small, and there is limited downward space due to low inventory [1][2][3] - PX - TA: It is advisable to go long on expanding TA processing fees at low prices. Although the short - term supply and demand of PX - TA have little contradiction, the current TA processing fees are at a historical low, and there are many future maintenance expectations [4][5][6] Group 3: Summaries According to Catalogs MEG - **Inventory**: The inventory at East China ports decreased to 52.1 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared to the previous period. The expected inventory accumulation at ports next Monday is limited [1][2] - **Device**: Tongliao Jinmei stopped production due to an accident, and Zhonghuaxin restarted at a low load. Overseas, 4 sets of 2.15 million - ton capacity devices in Saudi Arabia that were temporarily shut down have restarted at a low load [1] - **Supply**: The total load increased to 69% (+0.65%), with the coal - based load rising to 75% (+0.64%). The profit of each route was significantly compressed [2] - **Demand**: The load of filament and staple fiber decreased slightly, and the polyester load dropped to 88.1% (-0.6%). The processing profit of polyester products has been repaired, and there is an expectation of an increase in filament load in the future [2] PX - TA - **PX** - **Device**: After Sheng Hong's PX device malfunction, it increased its load, and Sinochem slightly reduced its load. The overall load increased to 81.1% (+1.2%). Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Weilian [4] - **Profit**: The cost of naphtha has increased significantly, the profit of the PX link has been compressed, PXN has been compressed to 247 (-45), and PX - MX has been repaired to 110 (-19) [4][5] - **PTA** - **Device**: There have been successive load reductions and overhauls, and the load has dropped to 75.3% (-4.6%). Sanfangxiang's new device has successfully produced products [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory reduction trend has slowed down, and the social inventory has slightly increased to 2.25 million tons (+3) [5] - **Profit**: The overall industrial chain profit has been compressed to a low level, and the TA cash - flow processing fee has been compressed to 154 (-26) [5] - **Demand**: Similar to MEG, the polyester load has decreased, but there is an expectation of an increase in filament load in the future [5] Polyester - **Supply**: The overall polyester load decreased to 88.1% (-0.6%), with the filament load dropping to 90.5% (-0.8%) and the staple fiber load to 90.3% (-0.3%) [10] - **Profit**: The processing profit of polyester products has been significantly repaired, such as POY's profit increasing from - 114 to 110 yuan/ton [10] - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of filament products has slightly increased, and the inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased [10] - **Production and Sales**: The production and sales of filament are light, with the production - sales ratio dropping to 30.8% (-29.3%) [10] Downstream of Polyester - **Weaving**: The loom load has slightly increased, and the number of weaving orders has increased by 0.4 days. However, the actual orders at the terminal have not improved yet [2][5] - **Spinning Mill**: The spinning mill load remains stable, and the inventory of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn shows no significant change [134] - **Terminal Macro**: The production of cloth and yarn, the retail sales of clothing, and the production of soft drinks all show certain seasonal characteristics [144][145][146] - **Textile Export**: The export quantity and value indexes of the textile and textile - clothing industries show different trends, and the export delivery value also has corresponding changes [148][149][152]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined in terms of a standard rating but described as having a weak and volatile short - term market [6] - Methanol: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited trading opportunities on the current market [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with potential for seasonally improved supply - demand in the third - quarter later stage and pressure in the fourth quarter [1][3] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, showing a weakening price trend with supply pressure [1][3] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆, with a weak price trend due to supply and demand dynamics [1][2] - Plastic (assumed to be related to Polyethylene in the context): ☆☆☆, with a weak price trend as supply increases and demand changes little [1][2] - PVC: ☆☆☆, expected to have a weak and volatile short - term price trend [1][7] - Caustic Soda: ★★★, indicating a clear bearish trend with long - term supply pressure [1][7] - PTA: ☆☆☆, with a weak market due to supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation [1][5] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆, with a downward price trend and weak supply - demand [1][5] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆, with a neutral current situation but positive mid - term expectations [1][5] - Bottle - chip: ☆☆☆, facing long - term over - capacity pressure and limited processing margin recovery [1][5] - Glass: ☆☆☆, with a weak price trend [1][8] - Soda Ash: ★★★, expected to have a weak and volatile short - term price trend [1][8] Core Views - The chemical market is generally under pressure due to various factors such as supply - demand imbalances, changes in oil prices, and downstream demand fluctuations. Different chemical products show different price trends and market outlooks based on their specific supply - demand situations [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene: Futures prices decline. Supply is expected to remain relatively abundant, and demand growth has limited support for prices, making prices more likely to fall [2] - Polyolefins: The main contracts of polyolefin futures fluctuate narrowly. Polyethylene supply increases with the restart of maintenance devices, and demand changes little, resulting in a weak price trend. Polypropylene has increased temporary shutdowns on the supply side, but demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: Futures prices decline slightly due to oil price and external sentiment. Supply increases, and the market is in a weak supply - demand situation. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, with potential improvement in the third - quarter later stage and pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene: The main contract of futures fluctuates narrowly. A new production plan has a negative impact on the market. Supply and demand both increase, but supply pressure is relatively large, leading to a weak price trend [3] Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices decline due to oil price and market sentiment. Supply - demand is imbalanced, with inventory accumulation and pressure on processing margins. There is a driving force for margin repair in the medium term, but it depends on downstream demand recovery [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Prices continue to decline. Supply increases, and demand decreases slightly. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation [5] - Short - fiber: Prices follow raw materials down. The current situation is neutral, but new capacity is limited, and there are positive mid - term expectations [5] - Bottle - chip: Prices decline with raw materials. There is long - term over - capacity pressure, limiting the recovery of processing margins [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol: The market price continues to decline slightly. Supply is sufficient, and demand changes little. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [6] - Urea: Prices are weakly volatile. Demand enters the off - season, and production is still relatively abundant. Attention should be paid to macro and export policies [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Prices continue to weaken. Supply is high, and demand is in the off - season, resulting in inventory accumulation and a weak price trend [7] - Caustic Soda: Prices are weakly running. Supply pressure is high in the long term, and prices are expected to be under pressure at high levels [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Prices decline due to policy sentiment. Supply - demand pressure exists, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [8] - Glass: Prices are weakly running. Market sentiment fades, and the market returns to a real - trading situation with inventory accumulation [8]