12月，临近岁末加上西方圣诞节，催热全球消费——国产圣诞帽、圣诞树等商品"出海"，航运市场也如 期迎来"旺季效应"。上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）逆势回升，美线、地中海等核心航线运费集体上 涨，头部船司更是密集官宣12月涨价，数据很直观：欧线运价环比上涨9.5%，美西、美东航线的涨幅 更是达到20%左右。放在往年，海运费一涨，聚酯行业早就掀起了抢出口热潮——赶在运费上涨前发 货，锁定订单和利润。但今年却反常：聚酯出口既没有短期爆发，也没有订单集中锁定的情况。这 波"热运费"遇上"冷订单"的反差，背后藏着啥原因？又透露了行业哪些新变化呢？ 为啥不"抢单"了？哪些因素卡住了出口冲动？ 业内人士直言，以往海运费上涨，聚酯企业"抢单"积极性拉满，这次却集体"克制"，这不是偶然，而是 多重因素叠加的结果：核心原因是运费上涨的逻辑变了，再加上需求、利润、政策的多重约束，让"抢 单"变得无利可图，甚至风险重重。 业内资深人士庞春艳表示，相较于往年8月出口量达峰的常规表现，今年出口量提前回落，是受关税政 策影响的出口节奏变化。 不过，11月中美釜山会晤后，美方释放缓和信号：专项关税从20%下调至 10%，暂停加征更高"对 ...

12月，临近岁末加上西方圣诞节，催热全球消费——国产圣诞帽、圣诞树等商品"出海"，航运市场也如 期迎来"旺季效应"。上海出口集装箱运价指数(SCFI)逆势回升，美线、地中海等核心航线运费集体上 涨，头部船司更是密集官宣12月涨价，数据很直观：欧线运价环比上涨9.5%，美西、美东航线的涨幅 更是达到20%左右。放在往年，海运费一涨，聚酯行业早就掀起了抢出口热潮——赶在运费上涨前发 货，锁定订单和利润。但今年却反常：聚酯出口既没有短期爆发，也没有订单集中锁定的情况。这 波"热运费"遇上"冷订单"的反差，背后藏着啥原因？又透露了行业哪些新变化呢？ 为啥不"抢单"了？哪些因素卡住了出口冲动？ 业内人士直言，以往海运费上涨，聚酯企业"抢单"积极性拉满，这次却集体"克制"，这不是偶然，而是 多重因素叠加的结果：核心原因是运费上涨的逻辑变了，再加上需求、利润、政策的多重约束，让"抢 单"变得无利可图，甚至风险重重。 中信建投（601066）期货能化高级分析师李思进表示，抢出口的前提是海外有刚性备货需求，但现在全 球终端消费恢复得很温和。一方面，欧美通胀压力没有完全消退，其居民消费能力受限；另一方面，海 外客户早就完成了基础 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - PTA futures have shown strong performance, with the main contract rising to around 5000 yuan/ton, driven by expectations of an optimized supply-demand structure in the polyester industry chain for 2026 [1] - The market sentiment is turning bullish towards the end of the year due to the anticipated supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - In 2026, there will be a production vacuum for PTA with no new capacity additions, allowing for potential recovery in processing fees [1] - The PX market is expected to face tight supply in the first half of next year due to no new capacity and seasonal maintenance in Q2, which may strengthen processing fees for both PX and PTA [1] - As of the end of 2025, the total capacity of mainstream PTA facilities is approximately 93.25 million tons, with an average capacity utilization rate of about 78%, a decrease of 2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Domestic textile and apparel exports have been affected by US-China trade tensions, with a 1.6% year-on-year decline in export value from January to October this year [2] - Textile yarn exports have seen a slight increase of 0.9%, while clothing and accessories exports have decreased by 3.8%, indicating a widening decline [2] - Domestic demand for textiles and apparel is expected to grow steadily, with conservative operational attitudes in the weaving sector and low inventory levels [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The PTA market is projected to maintain a dual increase in supply and demand in 2026, with demand growth expected to outpace supply growth, leading to continued inventory depletion [2] - It is anticipated that the processing fees for PTA will rebound in 2026, ranging between 100 to 400 yuan/ton, while the main PTA futures contract price is expected to operate between 4400 to 6000 yuan/ton, with opportunities to buy on dips around 4500 yuan/ton in the first half of the year [2]

化工板块盘中走高，申万证券指出，看好聚酯产业链，供需改善与减产共振驱动利润修复。 化工ETF紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，中证细分产业主题指数系列由细分有色、细分机械等7 条指数组成，分别从相关细分产业中选取规模较大、流动性较好的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映 相关细分产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)前十大权重股分别为万华化学 (600309)、盐湖股份(000792)、天赐材料(002709)、藏格矿业(000408)、巨化股份(600160)、华鲁恒升 (600426)、多氟多(002407)、恒力石化(600346)、宝丰能源(600989)、云天化(600096)， 化工ETF(159870)，场外联接(A：014942；C：014943；I：022792)。 PTA行业联合减产有效提振盈利。PTA行业新增产能今年年底投放结束，行业未来暂无明确新增装置规 划。PTA头部五家企业恒力、新凤鸣、桐昆、逸盛、三房巷规划部分老装置计划检修降负或退出、新装 置投放延期，以此实现利润回升。预计PTA行业存在1000万吨以上产能减产空 ...

政策落地的"重启效应"立竿见影。印度BIS认证取消当日，国内聚酯工厂收到印度询盘后订单显著增 长，部分主流工厂FDY订单火爆，这一热度正向产业链上游传导，FDY出口的修复将反向拉动PTA需 求。2024年，中国PTA对印出口从2022年的96万吨降至38万吨，2025年1至9月出口量仅近19万吨。认证 取消后，印度每月15万～18万吨的PTA供应缺口将大概率由中国填补，既能扭转出口下滑态势，也能缓 解国内PTA行业供过于求的压力。 这波"重启"还辐射关联产业。聚酯企业积累的印度下游纺织客户与锦纶产品目标采购市场高度重叠，且 国内锦纶产品具备性价比优势，锦纶企业若精准对接需求、优化供应链，有望借政策东风切入印度市 场，实现出口增量的新突破。 需要注意的是，当前贸易复苏仍存隐忧。此次回暖更多依赖短期政策红利，印度贸易政策反复性强，且 已在11月20日对中国聚酯变形纱发起反倾销调查，未来不排除通过关税、技术壁垒等方式再设障碍。此 外，未来3年印度本土聚酯与PTA产能将双重扩张，抑制中国产品出口增量。 近日，印度化学品和石化品司发布通知，撤销对精对苯二甲酸(PTA)、乙二醇(MEG)、涤纶长丝 (POY/FDY)等1 ...

光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 光大期货能化商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 美元至 | | | | 58.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.64%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.31 美元 | | | | 至 62.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.50%。SC2602 以 442.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 0.6 元/桶，涨幅为 0.14%。受圣诞假期影响，贝克休斯本周提前三 | | | | 天发布钻机数量报告。数据显示，截至 12 月 23 日当周，作为未 | | | | 来产量先行指标的油气钻机总数增加 3 座，至 545 座，但仍较上 | | | | 年同期减少 44 座，降幅为 7.5%。贝克休斯表示，本周美国石油钻 | | | 原油 | 机数增加 3 座，至 409 座；天然气钻井数持平于 127 座。美国商 | 震荡 | | | 务部经济分析局公布的首次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国 | | | | GDP 环比按年率计算增长 4.3 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - PTA prices continued to rise due to cost - support. Planned restarts and shutdowns of PTA capacities affected the spot basis. The polyester industry maintained a high load, and the demand was expected to be supported by factors such as the cancellation of India's BIS certification. [2] - For ethylene glycol (MEG), with coal prices falling and new device production increasing, the price was under pressure, but the demand was expected to be boosted by increased polyester export inquiries. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **INE Crude Oil and PTA - SC**: On December 22 - 23, 2025, INE crude oil rose from 437.9 yuan/barrel to 440.9 yuan/barrel, and PTA - SC increased from 1857.7 yuan/ton to 1877.9 yuan/ton. [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX increased from 892 to 896, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 361 to 356. [2] - **PTA**: The PTA main - contract futures price rose from 5040 yuan/ton to 5082 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased from 4885 yuan/ton to 4955 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee and the on - paper processing fee also increased. [2] - **MEG**: The MEG main - contract futures price dropped from 3735 yuan/ton to 3623 yuan/ton. The MEG inner - market price decreased from 3633 to 3613. [2] 2. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX**: The PX operating rate decreased slightly from 86.48% to 86.28%. [2] - **PTA**: The PTA operating rate decreased slightly from 74.77% to 74.49%. [2] - **MEG**: The MEG operating rate increased slightly from 60.43% to 60.67%. [2] - **Polyester**: The polyester load increased slightly from 88.41% to 88.58%. [2] 3. Product Conditions - **Polyester Filament**: POY, FDY, and DTY prices all increased, but their cash - flows showed different trends. The long - filament sales rate decreased from 62% to 36%. [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber increased, and the short - fiber sales rate increased from 40% to 57%. [2] - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price increased slightly, but the chip cash - flow decreased, and the chip sales rate decreased from 85% to 54%. [2] 4. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in Ningbo, which stopped for maintenance in late November, is expected to resume operation on December 24. [2]

另外，中国纺织企业产能全球化布局的脚步加速，东南亚、埃及等地投资热潮兴起，纤维出口需求大幅 增长。2025年1—10月，聚酯出口1200万吨，同比增长15.2%。因此，在聚酯内外需求高速增长的背景 下，聚酯行业整体开工率维持在90%，景气度明显处于高位。 编辑：吴郑思 2026年我国聚酯产能增速将有所放缓，新增产能预计在415万吨左右，产能增速在4.7%。然而，上游的 PTA、 PX产能增速明显放缓，尤其是PX2025年零投产，2026年预计新增360万吨产能，但是落地时间 也要到下半年。当前PXN以及短流程利润均已经处于高位，但由于产能限制，PX国产量难以超过340万 吨／月的高点。按照当前聚酯开工率91%的水平，PX供应存在一定缺口。 2025年PX供需缺口通过PTA库存持续下降来弥补，但当前PTA社会库存降至215万吨左右，已经处于历 史低位。PTA加工费长期处于200元／吨以下，PTA现货供应量也受制于短缺的PX原料。PTA产量难以 有效修复，开工率长期维持在70%~75%区间。因此，在聚酯工厂停车降负荷之前，PTA和PX环节基 差、月差将保持强势格局。 2025年10月下旬以来，PX与PTA期货价格 ...

国内某龙头PTA生产加工企业产业园区。本栏图片均由郑商所供图 已上市的聚酯类期货品种。 聚酯，作为我国重要的大宗商品，提供了国内70%的纺织品原料，并广泛应用于包装等领域，具有产业链条 长、关联度广的特性，与人民生活密切相关。 从2006年全球首个聚酯期货品种PTA期货落地郑州商品交易所，到如今形成覆盖对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶 片的全链条期货工具体系，郑商所逐步构建起覆盖聚酯产业全链条、多工具的风险管理体系，为聚酯产业稳 健前行注入坚实金融动能。 如今，聚酯期货板块不仅成为国内企业稳定经营的重要工具，更逐步推动"中国价格"走向世界，成为中国期 货市场服务实体经济、提升国际定价影响力的生动样本。 立足产业需求 织密全链条风险管理网 郑商所短纤期货交割仓库仓单货品。 郑商所PTA期货交割仓库仓单货品。 聚酯产业链品种作为中间产品，其价格易受上游原油价格波动与下游纺织、包装需求变化影响，进而引发全 链条价格波动。当缺乏有效风险管理工具时，企业极易面临"高价原料、低价产品"的双重挤压。 郑商所聚焦产业痛点，全力构建聚酯期货板块体系，为产业健康稳健发展提供有效风险管理工具。时间回到 2006年12月18日，全球首个聚 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The two-olefin futures main contracts fluctuated widely during the day and operated weakly overall. The supply of plastics and polypropylene is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak, with the bear market pattern continuing [2]. - The benzene futures price fell after reaching 5,500 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand pressure may ease. The styrene futures main contract rose, but the supply increase may be greater than the demand increase [3]. - PX prices rose due to strong expectations, but the cost transmission resistance may gradually appear. Ethylene glycol is under long-term pressure, and the new supply concerns have limited impact on the current market [4]. - The raw materials are strong, squeezing the profits of downstream polyester products. Short fibers have a relatively good long-term supply and demand pattern, and bottle chips are driven by cost with overcapacity pressure [5]. - Methanol may operate weakly in the short term and has upward driving force in the medium and long term. The urea market continues to have a pattern of oversupply [6]. - PVC may operate at a low level, and caustic soda will continue to compress profits [7]. - Soda ash faces long-term oversupply pressure, and glass needs to continue to reduce production capacity to reach balance [8]. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The two-olefin futures main contracts fluctuated widely and operated weakly. The supply of plastics and polypropylene is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak, with the bear market pattern continuing [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The benzene futures price fell after reaching 5,500 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand pressure may ease. The styrene futures main contract rose, but the supply increase may be greater than the demand increase [3]. Polyester - PX prices rose due to strong expectations, but the cost transmission resistance may gradually appear. Ethylene glycol is under long-term pressure, and the new supply concerns have limited impact on the current market [4]. - The raw materials are strong, squeezing the profits of downstream polyester products. Short fibers have a relatively good long-term supply and demand pattern, and bottle chips are driven by cost with overcapacity pressure [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol may operate weakly in the short term and has upward driving force in the medium and long term. The urea market continues to have a pattern of oversupply [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC may operate at a low level, and caustic soda will continue to compress profits [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash faces long-term oversupply pressure, and glass needs to continue to reduce production capacity to reach balance [8].