Group 1: Overall Market Performance - Hangzhou's cultural tourism market experienced a significant boost during the 2026 New Year's holiday, attracting 6.6019 million visitors and generating ticket revenue of 79.9778 million yuan, with a 15.9% year-on-year increase in visitors from outside the city [1] - The average hotel booking volume in Hangzhou surged by 280% year-on-year on New Year's Day, with overnight visitors reaching 1.032 million, marking a 7.1% increase [2] Group 2: Consumer Trends and Preferences - The search volume for "New Year travel" increased by 125% year-on-year, with the post-00s demographic making up 39% of travelers, indicating a strong preference for experiential and ceremonial activities [3] - Personalized cross-year packages offered by local inns, featuring activities like bonfire parties and tea gatherings, achieved an average occupancy rate of 75.76% [2] Group 3: Cultural and Entertainment Activities - Various cultural events and markets, such as the "New Year Treasure Hunt" and traditional performances, attracted over 90,000 participants, showcasing the city's rich cultural heritage [4] - The integration of food, non-heritage activities, and local markets created a vibrant atmosphere, enhancing the overall visitor experience during the holiday [4] Group 4: Winter Sports and Activities - The cold weather and snowfall led to a surge in winter sports tourism, with ski resorts in nearby areas seeing a 930% increase in orders, while local ski venues also performed well [5] - Hangzhou's ice and snow amusement parks received approximately 33,000 visitors during the holiday, reflecting the growing popularity of winter activities [5]

Group 1 - The chief strategist of Guojin Securities, Miao Yiling, predicts that the ROE of the non-financial real estate sector in A-shares will increase from 7.2% to 7.9% by 2026, indicating a shift from a "low return" phase to a higher profitability rhythm [1] - Miao suggests four main investment lines: industrial resource products, equipment exports, consumer recovery, and non-bank financials, with a focus on tracking the demand for aluminum, copper, steel, and coal driven by power system construction [1] - In overseas markets, the U.S. and Europe are experiencing characteristics such as "investment exceeding consumption," profit differentiation among large and small enterprises, declining employment, and slowing wage growth, which provide a foundation for a sustained interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - On the domestic consumption front, the drag of housing prices on household spending has diminished, with an increase in foreign tourists due to trade settlement rate recovery and visa-free entry, leading to improved net profit margins in sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage [2] - Financially, there is a shift of household savings towards "fixed income+" products, with pension and insurance funds continuously increasing their equity allocations; policy adjustments to lower insurance risk factors and relax brokerage leverage will resonate with the non-bank sector and ROE recovery [2]

Group 1: Transportation and Travel - On New Year's Eve 2025, Guangzhou's metro system set a national record with a total passenger volume of 14.093 million, surpassing the previous record of 13.5 million set in 2024 [1][2] - The Baiyun Airport achieved a historic annual passenger throughput of over 80 million, with international travelers exceeding 16.6 million, marking a significant increase from 76.369 million in 2024 [1] - During the New Year holiday, Guangzhou became the most popular destination for flight bookings, with hotel reservations increasing nearly threefold compared to the previous year [1][3] Group 2: Consumer Market and Economic Growth - Guangzhou's consumer market saw a 15.7% increase during the three-day New Year holiday, driven by various promotional policies and activities, with notable growth in beverages (110%), communication devices (85.6%), cosmetics (55.4%), and clothing (18.9%) [3] - The city's "trade-in" program for consumer goods generated sales of 61.59 billion, with automotive sales being a significant contributor, supported by over 1.7 billion in subsidies benefiting more than 140,000 consumers [3][4] Group 3: Infrastructure and Urban Development - Guangzhou's urban renewal investment reached 190 billion in 2025, exceeding the initial target of 180 billion, which provided strong support for the city's economic rebound [6] - The establishment of the Artificial Intelligence Development Bureau in Haizhu District aims to enhance the region's AI industry, with over 180 industry model projects already initiated [8][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The 2026 investment target has been set at 200 billion, expected to further bolster the city's economic performance [7] - The provincial leadership emphasized the need for proactive policy implementation and project execution to ensure a strong start to 2026, aiming for economic growth to align with national trends [11]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Title] 元旦出行稳健增长，离岛免税持续亮眼 投资建议 展望 26 年，我们建议关注高景气成长赛道以及政策、科技加 持下服务业景气拐点赛道，具体包括：（1）服务消费迎来政 策及行业新需求共振，有望驱动行业拐点，包括免税、银发 旅游、育儿消费等。受益标的包括中国中免、华住酒店、锦 江酒店、首旅酒店、三峡旅游、君亭酒店、孩子王、海底 捞、百胜中国、长白山等。（2）新消费拥有需求长逻辑，景 气度有望维持，当前行业龙头估值处于相对低位，26 年仍然 拥有足够弹性，包括潮玩、茶饮、时尚黄金珠宝、保健品 等。受益标的包括泡泡玛特、名创优品、潮宏基、老铺黄 金、若羽臣、古茗、蜜雪集团等。（3）零售业态创新+出海打 开新成长空间，受益标的包括小商品城、赛维时代等。（4） AI+应用 26 年有望迎来百花齐放，从主题到商业化变现加 速，受益标的包括焦点科技、豆神教育、青木科技、科锐国 际、米奥会展等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行，居民收入及消费意愿恢复不及预期，行业竞 争加剧。 [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 ...

Macro Insights - The New Year's holiday saw a significant increase in travel, with inter-regional mobility growing by 19.5% year-on-year, reaching a recent high. Short-distance "micro-vacations" have become mainstream, with strong performance in service consumption, particularly in entertainment. However, product consumption has declined due to the waning effects of year-end sales [4]. - Real estate sales are showing marginal declines, although the easing of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities has released some demand. Infrastructure and construction are still constrained by insufficient new projects [4]. - The port operations remain stable, but there is a divergence in domestic import freight rates and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Most industries are experiencing a decline in operating rates, with petrochemicals and automotive sectors showing weak performance due to rising costs and falling demand, while emerging sectors like lithium batteries and photovoltaics are performing well [4]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is generally rising, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows mixed results. The RMB exchange rate has surpassed 7.0, with funding rates and government bond yields trending upward [4]. Strategy Insights - The A-share market is expected to see a "spring opening red" as it closed at 3968.84 points in 2025, marking an 18.41% annual increase. The market sentiment has shifted towards optimism, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut in the U.S. in 2026 [8]. - The influx of incremental capital, particularly through A500 ETF and insurance funds, is expected to solidify liquidity. The government has emphasized the need to stabilize and improve real estate market expectations, indicating a proactive approach to boosting growth [8][9]. - The central bank's fourth-quarter meeting highlighted the importance of price signals for promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with a gradual emergence of price increases in certain sectors due to improved demand and supply constraints [10]. Industry Comparisons - The technology sector, particularly in AI and emerging industrialization trends, is expected to see strong growth. The domestic chip technology breakthroughs and storage price increases are anticipated to continue, with a focus on companies with global competitive advantages [11]. - Non-bank financial institutions are likely to benefit from increased demand for wealth management and the migration of household deposits, with recommendations for insurance and brokerage firms [11]. - The cyclical sectors are showing signs of improvement, with low valuations and positioning, benefiting from policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market. Recommendations include tourism services, hotels, and consumer goods [11]. - Specific themes to watch include AI applications, robotics, commercial aerospace, and domestic consumption, with a focus on new consumption patterns and service sectors [11].

Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to welcome a "spring opening red" with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3968.84 points, marking an annual increase of 18.41% in 2025, confirming the strategic judgment of Guotai Junan [2][7] - Key factors supporting the market include the anticipated announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair, expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026, and the influx of incremental capital represented by the A500 ETF [2][8] - The decision-making body has emphasized the need to "promote investment stabilization," indicating a stronger policy push to boost growth, particularly in the real estate sector [2][8] Group 2: Price Signals and Economic Recovery - The central bank's fourth-quarter meeting highlighted the importance of price signals in promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with price increases beginning to emerge in certain sectors since the second half of 2025 [3][11] - Specific sectors experiencing demand improvement but supply contraction include chemicals (e.g., organic silicon, refrigerants) and new energy materials (e.g., lithium carbonate) [3][11] - The current price increase cycle is characterized by demand driven by new technologies such as AI and energy storage, rather than traditional infrastructure [3][11] Group 3: Industry Comparisons - The outlook for technology, non-bank financials, and consumer sectors is positive, with strong growth expected in emerging technologies and capital goods exports [4][13] - Recommendations include technology growth stocks, non-bank financials benefiting from increased wealth management demand, and cyclical stocks positioned for recovery due to domestic demand expansion [4][13] - The focus on cyclical stocks includes those in the tourism, hotel, and consumer goods sectors, which are expected to benefit from policy support for domestic demand [4][13] Group 4: Thematic Recommendations - AI applications are expected to see significant growth, with companies like MiniMax preparing for IPOs and advancements in AI models driving demand [4][22] - The robotics sector is entering a phase of scale development, with new products being launched and significant investments in technology and supply chains [4][23] - The commercial aerospace sector is poised for growth, with new guidelines for IPOs and advancements in reusable rocket technology [4][24] - Consumer spending is expected to increase, driven by new consumption scenarios in sports events and tourism, supported by government policies [4][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant recovery in domestic tourism during the 2026 New Year holiday, with 142 million domestic trips, a 5.2% increase compared to the 2024 New Year holiday, and reaching 115% of the 2019 level [6][14] - Total domestic travel expenditure reached 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.3% from the 2024 New Year holiday, recovering to 112% of the 2019 level [6][14] - The average spending per person was 597 yuan, a 1.1% increase from the 2024 New Year holiday, recovering to 97% of the 2019 level [6][14] - There was a notable increase in passenger transport volume, with significant growth in waterway and highway transport [14] - Scenic spots such as Huangshan, Changbai Mountain, and Danxia Mountain saw substantial visitor increases, with ticket bookings for domestic scenic spots increasing over four times year-on-year [16] - Duty-free sales in Hainan experienced rapid growth, with 442,000 items sold, a 52.4% increase, and shopping revenue reaching 712 million yuan, up 128.9% [22] - Cross-border travel demand surged, with 6.615 million people entering and exiting the country, a 28.6% increase [26] - Retail sales in key business districts showed strong consumer vitality, with total sales reaching 4.04 billion yuan, a 16.3% year-on-year increase [34] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism - Domestic travel during the 2026 New Year holiday reached 142 million trips, a 5.2% increase from 2024, and 115% of the 2019 level [6] - Total expenditure was 84.789 billion yuan, a 6.3% increase from 2024, recovering to 112% of the 2019 level [6] Scenic Spots - Significant visitor growth at scenic spots, with Huangshan, Changbai Mountain, and Danxia Mountain seeing increases of 76%, 66%, and 81% respectively compared to 2024 [16][18] Duty-Free - Hainan's duty-free sales reached 712 million yuan, a 128.9% increase, with 442,000 items sold, reflecting a 52.4% growth [22] Cross-Border Travel - Cross-border travel reached 6.615 million people, a 28.6% increase compared to the previous year [26] Retail - Retail sales in Beijing's key business districts totaled 4.04 billion yuan, with a 16.3% year-on-year increase [34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the travel chain, including hotels (e.g., Shoulv Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel), scenic spots (e.g., Three Gorges Tourism, Huangshan Tourism), and OTA (e.g., Ctrip Group) [35] - In the retail sector, it recommends focusing on duty-free (e.g., China Duty Free Group, Wangfujing) and retail department stores (e.g., Chongqing Department Store, He Bai Group) [35]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the service consumption sector, particularly in light of the government's efforts to stimulate consumer spending through various holidays and subsidies [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in service consumption during the New Year holiday, with a total of 590 million people expected to travel, marking a 19.5% year-on-year increase [2]. - The introduction of a large-scale subsidy program for replacing old appliances is expected to boost consumer spending, with an initial allocation of 62.5 billion yuan (approximately 9.1 billion USD) for 2026 [4]. - Midea's decision to raise air conditioner prices is seen as a strategic move to counteract intense competition in the industry, with price increases of 2% and 4% planned for early January [4]. Summary by Sections Service Consumption Growth - The report notes that during the New Year holiday, railway passenger volume is projected to reach 48.22 million, a 53.1% increase year-on-year, while road travel is expected to account for 540 million people, up 15.5% [2]. - The recovery in travel is anticipated to drive growth in the cultural tourism, hotel, and restaurant sectors, making service consumption a key driver of domestic demand recovery [2]. Domestic and International Tourism - The report indicates a substantial increase in inbound tourism, with ticket bookings for inbound travel during the New Year holiday rising by 110% year-on-year [3]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou remain popular among international tourists, while smaller cities like Dali and Xishuangbanna have seen a threefold increase in inbound visitors [3]. Government Subsidies and Industry Response - The government has initiated a subsidy program for replacing old appliances, which is expected to support consumer demand during peak seasons like the New Year and Spring Festival [4]. - Midea's price adjustments are viewed as a necessary step to improve the competitive landscape of the air conditioning industry, which has faced rising costs due to increased copper prices [4].

Core Insights - The domestic cultural and tourism market experienced a significant boost during the New Year holiday, with a notable increase in both travel volume and spending [1][8] - The "please 3 days off for 8" holiday arrangement has stimulated travel demand, leading to a rise in long-distance travel and outbound tourism [8][9] Group 1: Travel Volume and Spending - An estimated 590 million people traveled across regions during the New Year holiday, averaging 198 million daily, a 19.5% increase from the previous year [1] - Domestic travel reached 142 million trips, with total spending amounting to 84.789 billion yuan [1] - Railway passenger volume saw a significant increase, with 48.223 million trips over the holiday, a 53.1% year-on-year growth [2] Group 2: Popular Destinations and Activities - Ice and snow tourism led the market, with 40% of the top twenty domestic flight routes being ice tourism-related [2] - Hainan's duty-free shopping surged, with a 156.6% increase in shopping amounts compared to the previous year [4] - Traditional and immersive cultural experiences gained popularity, with non-heritage tourism searches increasing by 85% [5] Group 3: Accommodation Trends - The demand for hotels and traditional accommodations was high, leading to a surge in bookings for nearby homestays, which provided a more personalized experience [6][7] - Bookings for homestays near popular tourist spots like Shanghai Disneyland and Guangzhou's Chimelong Resort increased by 120% and 63% respectively [6] Group 4: Outbound Tourism - Outbound tourism saw a remarkable increase, with hotel bookings covering nearly 3,000 cities globally [9] - Popular themes for outbound travel included island vacations and destinations with visa-free access, with significant growth in bookings for countries like Argentina and Poland [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Insights - The consumption market shows strong growth during the New Year holiday, with significant increases in travel and spending among younger demographics [1][2][4] - The cross-year travel and ice-snow tourism are gaining popularity, with notable increases in ticket bookings and hotel reservations [2] - Hainan's duty-free sales doubled in the first two days of the New Year holiday, indicating robust consumer interest [3] - Various cities reported double-digit sales growth during the holiday, reflecting a vibrant consumption environment [4][7] Summary by Sections Travel Trends - High travel enthusiasm was noted during the New Year holiday, with a significant increase in ticket bookings and hotel reservations, particularly among younger travelers [1][2] - The search volume for "cross-year travel" increased by 125% year-on-year, with theme parks and concerts being major attractions [2] Duty-Free Sales - Hainan's duty-free sales reached 30.7 million items, with a 121.5% year-on-year increase in sales amounting to 5.05 billion yuan [3] - The sales in Sanya alone saw a remarkable increase, with sales amounting to 1.63 billion yuan on January 1, marking an 83.2% increase [3] Consumption Growth - Beijing's sales during the holiday reached 4.04 billion yuan, with a 16.3% year-on-year increase [4] - Shanghai reported an average daily consumption of 12.2 billion yuan, with online sales growing by 5.5% year-on-year [4] - Other cities like Qingdao and Nanjing also reported positive sales growth, indicating a broad recovery in consumer spending [4][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Hainan and sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, cross-border e-commerce, and certain scenic spots [8] - It highlights the potential of new consumption trends and the importance of adapting to market changes in 2026 [8]