Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Core View - The soda ash market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth, but there is still inventory accumulation. The future demand side is bearish, and the overall oversupply pattern suppresses prices. The short - term disk trend is strongly volatile following the overall commodity trend, and the long - term is bearish due to the supply - demand contradiction [8][9]. - The glass market faces pressure from high inventory and slow capacity reduction. The downstream real estate has not improved substantially. The short - term disk trend is strong, and the follow - up needs to focus on policy implementation [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **July 21 Market Data**: The main futures contract SA509 opened high and closed high, with a closing price of 1,295 yuan/ton, a rise of 69 yuan/ton or 5.62%, and a daily reduction of 297,887 lots in positions [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: In the week of July 17, the weekly output was 733,200 tons, a 3.42% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 84.10%, a 2.78% increase. The enterprise shipment volume was 691,000 tons, a 5.48% increase. The total inventory of manufacturers was 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% increase, with high - level inventory and a slowdown in growth [8]. - **Analysis**: Summer maintenance device recovery led to increased production and inventory accumulation. The demand side is bearish due to the expected reduction in photovoltaic glass production. The overall oversupply pattern suppresses prices. The short - term disk follows the overall commodity trend, and the long - term is bearish [9]. Glass - **Supply**: Affected by the planned production reduction of photovoltaic glass enterprises, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the supply of float glass has also declined, increasing inventory pressure. The mid - stream inventory is high, and the slow capacity reduction process may lead to further inventory accumulation [10][11]. - **Downstream**: The domestic real estate completion link has not improved substantially, and the downward trend continues [11]. - **Analysis**: The anti - involution policy expectation has strengthened market confidence. The short - term disk trend is strong, and the follow - up needs to focus on policy implementation [11]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides charts of soda ash and glass active contract price trends, soda ash weekly output, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass output, with data sources including Wind and iFind [13][16][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The upcoming release of the stable - growth work plans for ten key industries and the construction of the Medog Hydropower Station are expected to boost the demand for building materials, and the market is expected to strengthen due to the low inventory level [3]. - In the short term, with the support of fundamentals and positive market sentiment, iron ore prices may remain strong, but risk control is needed after increased volatility [6]. - For manganese - silicon and silicon - iron, in the context of high volatility and no obvious trend, it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamental logic still points downward, but the current positive market sentiment may affect prices [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term upward trend continues, but it still faces the problems of over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [14][15]. - For glass, in the short term, it is boosted by macro - policies and inventory reduction. Long - term price trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - For soda ash, it is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, but there are still supply - demand contradictions in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton (2.446%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 897 tons, and the main - contract positions increased by 20,122 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton (2.537%), with a decrease of 293 tons in registered warehouse receipts and an increase of 4,222 lots in main - contract positions [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory slightly accumulated. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased, demand slightly increased, and inventory decreased. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are at a five - year low. The market is affected by policies and terminal demand, and attention should be paid to policy signals and demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 809.00 yuan/ton, up 3.06% (+24.00), with a decrease of 29,220 lots in positions to 663,400 lots. The weighted positions were 1,120,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 25.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.06% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron - ore shipments increased overall, with a decline in Australia and an increase in Brazil and non - mainstream countries. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average pig - iron output increased, and port inventories slightly increased while steel - mill inventories decreased [6]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Prices and Trends**: The manganese - silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 1.90% at 5,914 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract (SF509) closed up 2.90% at 5,668 yuan/ton. The manganese - silicon is still in a rebound trend, and the silicon - iron shows a wide - range shock [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to wait and see due to high volatility and no obvious trend. The fundamental logic still points downward, with over - supply, weakening demand, and potential cost reduction [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Trends**: The main contract (SI2509) closed up 6.50% at 9,260 yuan/ton. The short - term upward trend continues, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 9,700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: It still faces over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises decreased. It is boosted by policies and inventory reduction in the short term. Long - term trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The demand is still weak, and the supply is relatively loose in the medium term. It is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, and it is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **soda ash** and **urea** markets, focusing on their current status and future outlooks [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Soda Ash Market - The soda ash industry is currently influenced by macroeconomic policies rather than strict capacity reduction or technological upgrades, as there are no expectations for mandatory upgrades or elimination of outdated capacities [1][4]. - New capacity in the soda ash sector continues to be released, particularly from natural soda ash projects, with significant expansions expected in regions like Alashan and Jinshan [1][6][8]. - In the first half of 2025, soda ash supply remains high, with an average operating rate of approximately 85%, a slight year-on-year decrease, but actual production levels are stable compared to the previous year [9]. - The glass industry, particularly photovoltaic glass, has seen a significant reduction in production due to internal competition policies, leading to a notable decline in soda ash demand [1][12]. - Light soda ash demand from downstream industries such as monosodium glutamate and lithium salts has increased by about 10% year-on-year, providing some support for light soda ash demand [1][13]. Urea Market - The urea market is constrained by supply and price stabilization policies, with price fluctuations limited. New production capacities have increased supply, with daily production levels rising to nearly 200,000 tons [3][16]. - Urea exports face challenges due to port inspection capabilities and logistics, with historical data showing limited exports exceeding one million tons [20][23]. - The overall urea production capacity is projected to exceed 8 million tons by the end of 2025, with only about 10% classified as outdated capacity [17]. - The demand for urea has been growing, driven by high-value crops and environmental regulations, with a year-on-year increase in apparent consumption of about 9% in early 2025 [19]. Additional Important Insights - The soda ash market is currently experiencing high inventory levels, with production-side inventories reaching historical highs, which negatively impacts the futures market [11]. - The urea market is expected to face downward pressure in the second half of 2025 due to various factors, including international political dynamics and energy price fluctuations [27]. - The export quota system for urea is creating challenges for companies, as only those meeting storage requirements can obtain export quotas, leading to potential delays and increased costs [29]. - The price difference between domestic and international urea markets remains significant, influencing export behaviors and market dynamics [30][31]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the soda ash and urea markets.

Group 1 - Haitong Development reported a net profit of 86.87 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 64.14% [1] - Haitong Development achieved an operating income of 1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.74% [1] - Crystal Integrated expects a net profit increase of 39.04% to 108.55% for the first half of 2025, with projected revenue between 5.07 billion yuan and 5.32 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Aerospace Universe anticipates a net profit increase of 50.59% for the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 34.38 million yuan [2] - Aerospace Universe's net profit excluding non-recurring gains is expected to grow by 94.90% [2] Group 3 - Guodian Power reported a total power generation of 206.03 billion kWh for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.61% [3] - The company's market-based transaction electricity accounted for 91.84% of the total electricity sold [3] Group 4 - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals announced that its tranexamic acid injection has passed the consistency evaluation for generic drugs [5] - The drug is primarily used for treating various bleeding disorders [5] Group 5 - Sanyou Chemical received approval to issue up to 900 million yuan in technology innovation corporate bonds [7] - The bond issuance is valid for 24 months from the date of approval [7] Group 6 - Baiyuntian's BAT4406F injection drug has received approval for clinical trials for additional indications [9] - The drug is a next-generation fully human anti-CD20 antibody [9] Group 7 - Huason Pharmaceutical received three drug re-registration approval notices [10] - The approved drugs include Ganji Bingmei tablets and other formulations [10] Group 8 - Shanying International plans to establish the Zhiyuan Fund with a total scale of 100 million yuan [13] - The fund will primarily invest in product companies related to industrial scenarios [13] Group 9 - Yiqiu Resources announced the sale of two properties in Malaysia for a total of approximately 3.67 million yuan [15] - The sale is part of the company's asset management strategy [15] Group 10 - Guizhou Bailing plans to apply for loans totaling no more than 920 million yuan from multiple banks [16] - The loans will be used to replace maturing loans and supplement working capital [16] Group 11 - Samsung Medical's subsidiary won a transformer procurement contract in Brazil worth approximately 341 million yuan [16] - The contract is part of the company's expansion into international markets [16] Group 12 - Changying Tong expects a net profit increase of 72.12% to 110.33% for the first half of 2025 [17] - The projected revenue is between 173 million yuan and 211 million yuan [17] Group 13 - Canqin Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 50.14% to 61.85% for the first half of 2025 [17] - The expected revenue is between 286 million yuan and 290 million yuan [17] Group 14 - Daya Shengxiang signed a lease agreement with an annual rent of 17 million yuan for a production facility [18] - The lease term is for 3 years and 4 months, including a 4-month rent-free period [18] Group 15 - Zhongzai Zihuan announced the resignation of its general manager due to work adjustments [20] - The company will appoint an interim general manager while searching for a permanent replacement [20] Group 16 - Fuwei Co. received a project notification from a well-known luxury brand for seat development [22] - The total sales amount for the project is expected to reach 4.9 billion yuan [22] Group 17 - Meili Technology's application for convertible bonds has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [26] - The issuance is subject to further approval from regulatory authorities [26] Group 18 - Jinzhik Technology announced a stock suspension due to potential control changes [27] - The suspension is expected to last no more than two trading days [27] Group 19 - Zhongtian Technology plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares [28] - The dividend distribution date is set for July 25, 2025 [28] Group 20 - Huahai Chengke plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.2002 yuan per share [30] - The dividend distribution date is set for July 29, 2025 [30] Group 21 - Dasheng Intelligent won a smart transportation project contract worth 122 million yuan [31] - The project involves comprehensive monitoring systems for urban rail transit [31] Group 22 - Dongyue Silicon reported a fire incident affecting production operations [32] - The fire has been controlled, but the extent of damage is still being assessed [32] Group 23 - Shaanxi Guotou A reported a net profit of 726 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.74% [35] - The company's operating income decreased by 2.95% [35] Group 24 - Yibo Technology announced a plan to reduce shareholding by up to 3% [37] - The reduction is due to the shareholder's funding needs [37] Group 25 - Xiling Information announced a stock suspension due to potential control changes [39] - The suspension is expected to last no more than two trading days [39] Group 26 - Tianli Lithium Energy plans to reduce shareholding by 4.55% through block trading [40] - The reduction is due to the fund's operational timeline nearing its end [40] Group 27 - Sihui Fushi announced plans for a combined shareholding reduction of up to 3% [42] - The reduction is due to the shareholders' personal funding needs [42] Group 28 - Jinma Leisure announced a plan for a combined shareholding reduction of up to 4.83% [44] - The reduction is due to personal funding needs of the controlling shareholder and executives [44] Group 29 - *ST Zitian's stock may be terminated due to financial reporting issues [46] - The company is under regulatory scrutiny for failing to rectify its financial statements [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is driven by the expectation of supply contraction and demand expansion. The steel price is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but there is a risk of a pullback due to a decline in sentiment [3]. - The iron ore market remains strong, with both fundamentals and expectations improving. The short - term outlook for industrial products is positive, but there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, but the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits in the long term [31]. - The ferroalloy market is expected to have an optimistic price trend in the short term, but the fundamental driving force is not strong, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - The soda ash market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the market is in a long - term oversupply expectation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [62]. - The glass market remains strong, and the supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair. The market is in a weak balance, and attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Market Situation**: Influenced by policies and project news, steel prices rose. The current supply - demand of steel has no significant contradiction, and the "off - season is not off" effect is generated. Before the Politburo meeting in July, the steel price is expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of a pullback [3]. - **Price Data**: Provided the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts on different dates, as well as spot prices, basis, and spread data [3][6][10]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore market remains strong, with iron water production increasing unexpectedly. The inventory accumulation is not smooth, and the spot is in a tight balance. However, there are concerns about increased shipments [17]. - **Price and Fundamental Data**: Provided price data of iron ore contracts, basis, and spot prices, as well as fundamental data such as iron water production, port throughput, and inventory [18][25]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The coking coal and coke market is supported by speculative and rigid demand in the short term, and the second round of price increases by coking plants is likely to be implemented. In the long term, the high price of furnace materials may pose a threat to steel mill profits [31]. - **Price Data**: Provided coking coal and coke contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as profit and ratio data [31][33]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution sentiment and the strengthening of coal prices, the ferroalloy price is expected to be optimistic in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [48]. - **Price Data**: Provided price data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, including basis, spread, and spot prices [49][50]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations are fermenting, but the actual impact needs further policy guidance. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation [62]. - **Price Data**: Provided soda ash contract prices, basis, and spot prices, as well as price difference data [63][64]. Glass - **Market Situation**: Driven by the anti - involution expectation, the glass market remains strong. The supply is in a state of co - existence of ignition and cold repair, and the market is in a weak balance. Attention should be paid to the feedback of industrial behavior on the spot side [85]. - **Price and Sales Data**: Provided glass contract prices, basis, and daily sales data in different regions [87][88].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain abundant while demand hovers at the bottom. It reached the upper limit of the daily increase today, and tomorrow's ability to break through the 60 - day average is to be observed, with expected suppression. It is recommended to temporarily hold off on trading the soda ash main contract. - For glass, the industry's overall profit has improved, and the subsequent resumption of production is expected to increase. Currently, it is in a period of structural improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main - contract closing price: 1,295 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan; glass main - contract closing price: 1,173 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 122 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; soda ash main - contract open interest: 1,252,582 lots, down 297,884 lots; glass main - contract open interest: 1,226,964 lots, down 275,587 lots. - Soda ash top 20 net positions: - 302,967, up 157,101; glass top 20 net positions: - 293,898, up 125,572. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, down 290 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, down 661 tons. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 59 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; glass September - January contract spread: - 81 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. - Soda ash basis: - 6 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; glass basis: 7 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1,210 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. - East China light soda ash: 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Shahe glass sheets: 1,088 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets: 1,130 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.1%, up 2.78 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, down 0.34 percentage points. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.78 million tons/year, down 0.06 million tons; glass in - production production lines: 223, down 1. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 1.8842 million tons, down 21,400 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 64.939 million weight boxes, down 2.163 million weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area: 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area: 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals. - The supply of soda ash has increased, and the profit has rebounded slightly but remains negative. The subsequent soda ash output is expected to decline, and the natural - soda - ash method will gradually become the mainstream [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. - Glass: The supply remains at a low level, with obvious signs of production for rigid demand. The profit has improved, and the resumption of production is expected to increase. The demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the demand for photovoltaic glass is under inventory pressure [2].

2025.07.21-07.25 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 趋势判断逻辑 上周纯碱期货市场整体呈现震荡走势。从现货市场来看，国内纯碱 行业供需格局偏弱，整体开工率仍维持在84.10%左右，行业产能利 用率较高，预计未来市场供应增加。库存方面持续累积，反映出当 前市场供过于求的压力仍在。需求端，光伏玻璃行业"反内卷"政 策持续推进，日熔量下降，对纯碱需求形成拖累；而轻碱需求虽略 有改善，但整体交投仍以刚需为主，市场活跃度不高。综合来看， 纯碱行业面临高库存、弱需求的挑战。预计未来保持稳中震荡运行。 2 中线策略建议 3 建议观望 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 上周纯碱期货震荡。现货市场供需偏弱，开工率 84.10%，供 应预计增加，库存累积显供过于求。需求端，光伏玻璃日熔 量降拖累需求，轻碱需求略改善但交投以刚需为主。行业面 临高库存、弱需求，预计稳中震荡。预期纯碱2509运行区间 1150-1300。可考虑观望。 相关数据情况 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中国 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the elimination of outdated production capacity in ten key industries, indicating a faster-than-expected pace of action [1] - The prices of soda ash and glass surged on Monday, suggesting potential for further upward movement in these sectors [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.7.14-7.18 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 影响因素总结 利多： 每周观点 上周纯碱期货延续震荡，主力合约SA2509收盘较前一周下跌0.08%报1216元/吨。现货方 面，河北沙河重碱低端价1200元/吨，较前一周持平。 供给方面，近期装置检修零散、涉及产能小，个别装置检修恢复，预计下周整体供应呈 现增加趋势，周度产量7万吨，开工率接近85%。需求端，下游浮法和光伏玻璃需求下滑，存 货意向不足。目前浮法消费相对稳定，光伏受"反内卷"政策影响，大幅减产，消费下降； 周内，浮法日熔量15.84万吨，环比稳定，光 伏日熔量8.91万吨，环比降3000吨。截止7月17日，全国纯碱厂内库存190.56万吨，较 前一周增加2.26%，库存仍处于历史同期高位。综 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. Although the "Anti - involution" policy continuously boosts market sentiment, in the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1216 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1200 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 16 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot. The closing price decreased by 0.73%, the low - end price in Shahe dropped by 0.83%, and the basis increased by 6.67% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market 3.2.1 Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 135.20 yuan/ton, and that of the East China joint - soda process is - 95.50 yuan/ton, at the lowest level in the same period in history [15]. 3.2.2 Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 84.10%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash is 73.32 tons, including 41.47 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. 3.2.3 Changes in Production Capacity - In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and the planned newly - added production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand 3.3.1 Sales - to - Production Ratio - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 94.24% [24]. 3.3.2 Downstream Demand - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.78 tons, and the operating rate is 75.63% and remains stable. The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Affected by the "Anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has decreased significantly [27][30]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national soda ash factories is 190.56 tons, an increase of 2.26% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [32]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [33]. 3.6 Influencing Factors 3.6.1 Bullish Factors - The "Anti - involution" policy boosts market sentiment [3]. 3.6.2 Bearish Factors - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. Risk points include the unexpected low cold - repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass and unexpected macro - level benefits [4].