Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - On October 16, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 773.5 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. With the confirmation of the negotiation rumor between Sinomine Group and BHP and the escalation of Sino-US tariff disputes in the macro market, the price may oscillate weakly but is expected to remain within the oscillation range since August. Attention should be paid to the repair of downstream demand [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - On October 16, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 oscillated weakly, opening lower and then oscillating, closing at 773.5 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. The trading volume was 398,551 lots, and the open interest was 535,578 lots, an increase of 27,213 lots. The net inflow of funds was 293 million yuan [5][7] - The main iron ore outer - market quotes and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained flat compared with the previous trading day [9] 3.1.2 Technical Analysis - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline after a death - cross on the previous trading day; the green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 has been expanding for 3 consecutive trading days [9] 3.1.3 Future Outlook - BHP will change 30% of the amount in iron ore spot transactions with China to be settled in RMB from the fourth quarter of 2025, and will set an observation period for long - term contracts in 2026, still denominated in US dollars for now [10] - In terms of supply, the shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil increased in September, affected by end - of - quarter impulse. Shipments are expected to decline in October, and the recent significant increase in arrivals is expected to gradually fall back [11] - In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output is still above 240,000 tons but has declined slightly for 3 consecutive weeks. Considering the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, the growth space of subsequent output is limited and may oscillate and decline around 240,000 tons in the short term [11] - In terms of inventory, steel mills increased their pre - holiday restocking efforts, and the iron ore inventory of steel mills continued to grow, which is expected to gradually fall back after the holiday and return to the state of restocking on demand [11] 3.2 Industry News - On October 16, the central bank carried out 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 612 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 376 billion yuan [12] - The Ministry of Commerce will carry out work in aspects such as releasing policy effectiveness, promoting trade, and deepening trade cooperation, including implementing existing foreign trade policies, strengthening service guarantees for foreign trade enterprises, and making policy reserves [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures showing data such as the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract, shipments from Brazil and Australia, arrivals at 45 ports, etc. The data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][18][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and the remarks of multiple Fed officials have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and multiple industry stabilization and growth plans have been introduced, increasing policy support and boosting domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. In terms of assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; among commodity sectors, black is short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and Fed officials' remarks have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and policies have increased support, boosting risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, black is short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels [3]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as coal, banking, insurance, and port shipping, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the acceleration of domestic economic growth and the increase in policy support, risk appetite has increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market continued to rise. With the increase in risk aversion and the expectation of Fed rate cuts, spot gold reached a record high. Short - term, precious metals are strongly running, and the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term, long positions can be held or reduced on rallies; medium - and long - term, buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was weak on Thursday, but the futures price rebounded slightly. Market expectations have improved due to the approaching Fourth Plenary Session and expectations for the APEC meeting. The real demand has improved marginally, and steel supply may decline stage - by - stage. The steel market is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, while the futures price declined. Iron production is still high, and steel mills' restocking has ended. With the narrowing of profits, the willingness to cut production may increase. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded from the bottom. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased due to the decline in steel production. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, and the Lanzhou charcoal market is stable. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly in a range. Supply has increased marginally, and there is an expectation of anti - involution, forming a bottom support. Demand has improved marginally during the traditional peak season but is currently slowing down. It is expected to run weakly in a short - term range [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: From January to September, Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased by 1.2% year - on - year. Copper social inventory is at a relatively high level. The global copper mine output growth rate is expected to be high in 2026. The US economy has uncertainties, which are potential risk points. In the short - and medium - term, domestic electrolytic copper production is high, demand is facing a test, and de - stocking is less than expected [11]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, aluminum prices were strong. Aluminum social inventory decreased significantly, and aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly. The smelting profit is high, supply is rigid, imports are high, and demand is weakening marginally. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [12]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tightening globally. The demand has improved slightly but remains weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with support from low smelting start - up and peak - season expectations, but the upside is limited by high - price consumption suppression and macro risks [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's statement about meeting with Putin and the upcoming high - level Sino - US and Russia - US talks have raised expectations of increased Russian oil supply. Western sanctions and Sino - US trade tensions have also affected demand. Crude oil prices are expected to decline [14]. - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices test support, the probability of asphalt breaking through support has increased. Demand is nearing the end, inventory pressure is increasing, and it is difficult for asphalt to have a strong upward drive [14][15]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: On Thursday, the carbonate lithium futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the industrial silicon futures contract rose slightly. Production has reached a new high, and the 2511 contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt digestion. It is expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly due to rumors of storage and capacity regulation [14]. - **PX**: PX is weakly oscillating. Although it gets some demand support from PTA's high - start, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector [15]. - **PTA**: After the decline of crude oil prices, polyester is in a low - level oscillation. Downstream demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is increasing. PTA prices will continue to run weakly [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The sentiment of ethylene glycol is weak. Port inventory is rising, demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. It is expected to continue to be in an oversupply situation in late October [16]. - **PP**: The PP market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. New capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and the price is expected to be weak [18]. - **LLDPE**: The supply of LLDPE is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is rising slightly. It is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is under pressure, and its future trend depends on the implementation of export policies [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the CBOT November soybean contract rose. Strong domestic demand offset trade concerns, and the September soybean crushing volume reached a record high [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the start - up rate returned to normal. However, the oil mill inventory is under pressure, and the fourth - quarter soybean supply may be loose. Without guidance from US soybeans, it may oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade dynamics for rapeseed meal [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: With the visit of the Canadian foreign minister, the short - term risk of rapeseed oil has decreased. Soybean oil prices may be relatively weak due to inventory pressure [21]. - **Palm Oil**: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle. In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, suppressing prices, but exports also increased, providing some support [21]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has increased, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices to a record low. Although there are signs of second - fattening, the quantity is small. With the decrease in temperature and the recovery of consumption, pig prices may stabilize [21][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was strong, with the prices of finished steel products fluctuating upwards. In the medium - to - long - term, the steel price trend remains unchanged under the loosening macro - environment, but in the short - term, the weak real demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long rather than short. The market may first decline and then rise with the "Fourth Plenary Session" expectation [11]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's market, with low operation cost - effectiveness [12]. - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term, and it may rise again if there are supply - side disturbances or policy drivers after the macro - risk is digested [15]. - The price of polysilicon rebounds under policy expectations, but the high price's sustainability depends on whether the policy can be implemented, and attention should be paid to risk control [17]. - The glass market lacks positive support and the sentiment is cautiously bearish [20]. - The soda ash market is expected to remain weakly operating in the short - term [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3049 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.494%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai were 3120 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) and 3190 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3219 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.217%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai were 3230 yuan/ton and 3280 yuan/ton (both unchanged) respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a small inventory reduction, but overall demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, post - holiday demand increased, but inventory was still high, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continued to narrow [2]. - Trump's new tariff remarks affected market sentiment, but the medium - to - long - term steel price trend remained unchanged. In the short - term, the weak demand pattern was difficult to improve, and attention should be paid to policies around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 773.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.39% (- 3.00). The position increased by 27213 hands to 53.56 million hands. The weighted position was 88.95 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.23 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.32% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. The terminal inventory pressure was high, and the iron ore price was under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 16, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed at 5754 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 116 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed at 5456 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 194 yuan/ton [7][10]. Strategy Viewpoints - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and it may follow the black sector's market. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to manganese ore disturbances. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is also likely to follow the market, with low operation cost - effectiveness [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8605 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The weighted position decreased by 463 hands to 429946 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China were 9300 yuan/ton and 9700 yuan/ton (both unchanged) respectively, with bases of 695 yuan/ton and 295 yuan/ton [14]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52575 yuan/ton, up 3.36%. The weighted position increased by 13651 hands to 278578 hands. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 50.5 yuan/kg, 51.25 yuan/kg, and 52.75 yuan/kg (all unchanged) respectively, with a basis of 175 yuan/ton [16]. Strategy Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term due to factors such as reduced supply in the dry season in the southwest, cost support, and relative undervaluation. It may rise again if there are supply - side disturbances or policy drivers [15]. - The polysilicon price rebounds under policy expectations, but the high price's sustainability depends on policy implementation. Attention should be paid to risk control [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1147 yuan/ton, up 1.59%. The spot prices in North China and Central China were 1210 yuan (down 10 yuan) and 1200 yuan (unchanged) respectively. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 6427.56 million boxes, up 2.31%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 24971 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 37494 hands [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1235 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The spot price in Shahe was 1165 yuan, up 3 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 170.05 million tons, up 2.31%. The top 20 long - position holders increased 14282 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 7241 hands [21]. Strategy Viewpoints - The glass market has an expected increase in supply and a decrease in production cost, but the terminal demand is less than expected, and the market sentiment is cautiously bearish [20]. - The soda ash market has stable supply, weak demand, and light trading, and is expected to remain weakly operating in the short - term [22].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, reaching a historical high of $4,322.04 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising global tensions and economic uncertainty [1][2] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a growing recognition of gold as a store of value and a hedge against inflation [2][18] - The rapid increase in gold prices may lead to potential adjustments and increased volatility in the market [2][18] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices are supported by tight supply conditions and high smelting output, despite the smelting profits being at breakeven levels [2][19] - Investment in electric grids continues to grow, while other sectors like real estate show weakness, indicating mixed demand dynamics for copper [2][19] - The recent mining accident in Indonesia is likely to create a supply gap in the global copper market, providing long-term support for copper prices [2][19] Group 3: Oil - Oil prices have shown a downward trend, with recent geopolitical developments, including a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, influencing market sentiment [3][12] - OPEC projects a significant increase in global oil demand, with an expected rise of 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.38 million barrels per day next year [3][12] - Short-term oil prices may face downward pressure despite the anticipated demand growth [3][12] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated a potential extension of tariff exemptions on China if strict rare earth export controls are lifted, signaling ongoing trade negotiations [6] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed openness to equal consultations with the U.S. regarding trade issues, highlighting the importance of mutual respect [7] - Domestic industrial enterprises are accelerating equipment upgrades, with a notable increase in machinery procurement, indicating a positive trend in capital investment [8]

Group 1: Spot Market - Newman powder's latest price is 773, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of -11. Its discounted spot price is 827.0, and the import profit is -42.79 [1] - PB powder's latest price is 778, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -10. Its discounted spot price is 825.0, and the import profit is -31.25 [1] - Mac powder's latest price is 775, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -4. Its discounted spot price is 846.5, and the import profit is -3.89 [1] - Jinbuba powder's latest price is 748, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -10. Its discounted spot price is 840.9, and the import profit is -0.13 [1] - The latest price of mainstream mixed powder is 745, with no daily change and a weekly change of -10. Its discounted spot price is 875.4, and the import profit is -3.11 [1] - Super special powder's latest price is 703, with no daily change and a weekly change of -12. Its discounted spot price is 920.0, and the import profit is 2.92 [1] - Carajás powder's latest price is 904, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of -19. Its discounted spot price is 850.3, and the import profit is -12.34 [1] - Brazilian blended ore's latest price is 810, with no daily change and a weekly change of -12. Its discounted spot price is 824.4, and the import profit is -23.62 [1] - Brazilian coarse ore IOC6's latest price is 779, with no daily change and a weekly change of -13 [1] - Brazilian coarse ore SSFG's latest price is 784, with no daily change and a weekly change of -13 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate's latest price is 900, with no daily change and a weekly change of -13. Its discounted spot price is 990.4 [1] - 61% Indian powder's latest price is 737, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -10 [1] - Karara concentrate's latest price is 900, with no daily change and a weekly change of -13. Its discounted spot price is 922.7 [1] - Roy Hill powder's latest price is 765, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -10. Its discounted spot price is 842.1, and the import profit is -0.57 [1] - KUMBA powder's latest price is 837, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -10. Its discounted spot price is 828.1 [1] - 57% Indian powder's latest price is 636, with no daily change and a weekly change of -12 [1] - Atlas powder's latest price is 740, with no daily change and a weekly change of -10 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate's latest price is 1013, with no daily change or weekly change. Its discounted spot price is 900.0 [1] Group 2: Futures Market - The latest price of i2601 contract is 773.5, with a daily change of -3.0 and a weekly change of -21.5. The monthly spread is -42.5, with a daily change of 5.6 and a weekly change of 9.8 [1] - The latest price of i2605 contract is 752.0, with a daily change of -2.0 and a weekly change of -22.5. The monthly spread is 21.5, with a daily change of 4.6 and a weekly change of 10.8 [1] - The latest price of i2609 contract is 731.0, with a daily change of -2.0 and a weekly change of -22.0. The monthly spread is 21.0, with a daily change of 4.6 and a weekly change of 10.3 [1] - The latest price of FE01 contract is 101.50, with a daily change of -0.29 and a weekly change of -0.32. The monthly spread is -4.64, with a daily change of -3.2 and a weekly change of -13.7 [1] - The latest price of FE05 contract is 99.03, with a daily change of -0.27 and a weekly change of -0.81. The monthly spread is 2.47, with a daily change of -4.9 and a weekly change of -12.7 [1] - The latest price of FE09 contract is 96.86, with a daily change of -0.19 and a weekly change of -0.95. The monthly spread is 2.17, with a daily change of -5.0 and a weekly change of -12.0 [1]

Core Insights - BHP has agreed to use RMB for 30% of its iron ore trade with China, marking a significant shift in international settlement currencies and challenging the dominance of the US dollar in commodity markets [1][3][7] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - China Mineral Resources Group has instructed domestic buyers to halt all dollar-denominated purchases of BHP iron ore, allowing only RMB transactions, which demonstrates China's strong bargaining power in the iron ore market [3] - BHP's long-term contract pricing negotiations revealed a divergence in pricing mechanisms, with BHP proposing a fixed price of $109.5 per ton while China advocated for a market-driven floating price [3] - China's iron ore imports represent nearly 40% of the global market, with an annual volume of approximately 1.1 billion tons, enhancing its negotiating leverage [3] Group 2: Economic Impact - The shift to RMB settlement is expected to save Chinese steel mills about $8 per ton in transaction costs, translating to significant financial savings for large-scale importers [5] - BHP is projected to benefit from improved cash flow and an annual revenue increase of approximately $210 million due to the RMB settlement [5] Group 3: Infrastructure and Support - The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has fully integrated RMB settlement for iron ore trade, facilitating smoother transactions and reducing exchange rate risks [5][14] - CIPS processed transactions worth 90.19 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, covering 189 countries, which supports the growing adoption of RMB in international trade [5] Group 4: Global Trends - As of 2025, RMB settlements accounted for 25% of China's iron ore imports, with significant shares in trade with Brazil (28%) and Russia (48%) [7] - The global iron ore trade, valued at $1.2 trillion in 2025, is predominantly dollar-denominated, but BHP's move signals a potential shift in this paradigm [7] - The trend towards de-dollarization is accelerating, with various countries exploring alternative currencies for international trade [7][10] Group 5: Future Prospects - The introduction of RMB-denominated iron ore futures by the London Metal Exchange in 2026 and the establishment of a RMB pricing index by JPMorgan are indicative of a broader acceptance of RMB in commodity pricing [7][12] - The potential for a stable RMB settlement mechanism in commodity markets could reshape the international monetary system and challenge the existing dollar-centric framework [16]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Recently, the disturbances from macro and industry - related policies have intensified, leading to a significant increase in price volatility. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself is weak. The pressure of产业链 profit contraction and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upside potential of the price. There is real - world pressure on the upside of the iron ore price, but the high domestic molten iron production supports the price. With the current port clearance and arrival levels, the pressure of port inventory accumulation in October is not significant, so there is support on the downside. The price will fluctuate within a range [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis. Among them, the shipment decline of Rio Tinto in Australia was relatively significant, while the shipment from Brazil was relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year. Overall, the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand decreased on a month - on - month basis but remained at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. The blast furnace steel mills continued a slight downward trend this period. Blast furnace复产 occurred in the Hebei region, which was the planned resumption of production after the previous maintenance of blast furnaces. The maintained blast furnaces were mainly concentrated in Hebei, Northeast China, and Inner Mongolia, mainly for short - term maintenance. It is expected that they can resume production within two or three weeks. The average daily molten iron output this period was 241.54 tons (month - on - month - 0.27), and the domestic demand was higher than the average level in August (240.5). Overall, the high molten iron production supported the iron ore price [4]. Price and Strategy - The price will fluctuate within a range. The strategy is to conduct range - bound operations and use covered call options [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Although there is an oversupply of steel and an accumulation of plate stocks, there are no signs of a collapse in demand. The inventory pressure can be relieved by compressing profits and reducing production. However, attention should be paid to the impact of new iron ore production capacity on steel. It is recommended to wait and see for single - sided trading and focus on the recovery of apparent demand in the weekly data of Steel Union today [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Due to the weak steel prices and declining profitability of steel mills, the weak demand will force the iron ore market to operate weakly. The overall commissioning progress of the Simandou project is faster than expected. The iron ore market is shifting from a state of tight balance to one of relative abundance. It is recommended to wait and see for single - sided trading, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [3]. Coke Industry - The coke futures showed a volatile and weak trend. The cost is expected to increase due to concerns about coking coal supply caused by mining accidents. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke is recommended [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures showed a volatile trend. The spot price is expected to enter a rebound trend. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1080 - 1200, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot and futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3210 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract price of rebar decreased from 3061 yuan/ton to 3034 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 33 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar in most regions was in a loss state [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.8 tons to 863.3 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. The output of rebar decreased by 3.6 tons to 203.4 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 127.9 tons to 1600.7 tons, an increase of 8.7%. The inventory of rebar increased by 57.4 tons to 602.3 tons, an increase of 9.5% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.1 to 10.6 tons, a decrease of 10.8%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 153.4 tons to 751.4 tons, a decrease of 17.0% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the 01 contract basis of some iron ore powders increased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder decreased from 827.1 yuan/ton to 821.6 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis of Bar - mixed powder increased from 53.2 yuan/ton to 55.5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The global shipping volume of iron ore decreased by 71.5 tons to 3207.5 tons, a decrease of 2.2%, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 437.1 tons to 3045.8 tons, an increase of 16.8% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 100.5 tons to 6979.3 tons, a decrease of 1.4% [3]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased by 61.6 tons to 14086.14 tons, an increase of 0.4%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 990.6 tons to 9046.2 tons, a decrease of 9.9% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke futures contracts decreased slightly. The 01 contract of coke decreased from 1655 yuan/ton to 1642 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%. The coking profit decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 66.1 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 10.1 tons to 909.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1%. The coke inventory of coking plants increased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports decreased [5]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal futures contracts decreased slightly. The 01 contract of coking coal decreased from 1154 yuan/ton to 1151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%. The profit of sample coal mines remained unchanged at 466 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output decreased by 31.3 tons to 836.7 tons, a decrease of 3.6%, and the clean coal output decreased by 19.8 tons to 426.3 tons, a decrease of 4.4% [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 66.1 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [5]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory increased, while the inventory of ports, coking plants, and steel mills decreased [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 15, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract oscillated downward, closing at 776.5 yuan/ton, down 1.46%. Considering the regular decline after the end of the quarterly volume rush, it is expected that the shipments in October will decline, and the arrival volume will gradually fall back. The daily average pig iron output is still at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons but has been slightly declining for 3 consecutive weeks. The growth space of production is limited, and it may oscillate and decline at around 2.4 million tons in the short term. The steel mill's iron ore inventory is expected to gradually fall back after the festival and return to the state of restocking on demand. Overall, the price may oscillate weakly, but it is still expected to fluctuate within the oscillation range since August. The subsequent repair of downstream demand needs to be closely monitored [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review**: On October 15, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract oscillated downward, opening with an oscillating run and then falling back, and oscillating in the afternoon, closing at 776.5 yuan/ton, down 1.46%. The main iron ore outer - market quotes were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port dropped by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract showed a dead cross, and the green column of the daily MACD indicator has been expanding for two consecutive trading days [7][9] - **Future Outlook**: BHP will change 30% of the amount in iron ore spot transactions with China to be settled in RMB from the fourth quarter of 2025. It has set an observation period for long - term contracts in 2026 and will start negotiations on long - term contracts denominated in RMB if the market acceptance of the RMB iron ore index reaches the standard. In terms of fundamentals, the shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil increased in September. It is expected that the shipments in October will decline, and the arrival volume will gradually fall back. The daily average pig iron output is still high but has been declining slightly for 3 consecutive weeks. The growth space of production is limited. After the festival, the steel mill's iron ore inventory is expected to gradually fall back. Overall, the price may oscillate weakly but is still expected to fluctuate within the range since August [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - China's CPI in September decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. The decline of PPI narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the US threat of imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, urging the US to correct its wrong practices and resolve issues through dialogue and consultation [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume at 45 ports, the utilization rate of domestic mine production capacity, the trading volume at main ports, the available days of steel mill's iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and the port clearance volume, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and production capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][18][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's CPI and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed in September, showing the characteristics of "overall weakness, stable domestic demand, and structural differentiation", with positive signals accumulating and signs of steady repair of the economy's endogenous demand power [6][7]. - For different commodities, there are different market trends and investment suggestions, such as gold continuing to hit new highs, copper having long - term bullish allocation value despite short - term disturbances, etc. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China's Economic Data - China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year (previous value - 0.4%), with a month - on - month increase from flat to 0.1%. The core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the increase has been expanding for the 5th consecutive month, reaching 1% for the first time in nearly 19 months. PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year (previous value - 2.9%), and the month - on - month was flat for two consecutive months [7]. - In September, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 scissors gap reached a new low for the year [20][24]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 PTA - It is recommended to hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread. The unilateral trend is weak. The cost support of the polyester industry chain is weak, and the supply in the East China spot market is still sufficient. The new device of Xin凤鸣 Dushan Energy Phase 4 is about to be put into production, and the basis has declined [8]. 3.2.2 Copper - In the short term, prices are under pressure due to trade news and concerns about high prices in the US. In the long term, it has bullish allocation value as the supply of copper raw materials is expected to be tight, with some mines reducing production [10]. 3.2.3 Black Metals - The long - term bottom has emerged, but the peak season demand is weak. To maintain inventory balance, supply needs to be reduced, and attention should be paid to the production rhythm of electric furnaces [13][14]. 3.2.4 Gold and Silver - Gold continues to hit new highs, while silver's spot contradiction eases, and its price rises and then falls [17][20]. 3.2.5 Other Commodities - Each commodity has its own market trend, such as zinc showing a weak shock, lead being restricted by inventory increase, etc. [17][27][30]