1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the Fed will gradually slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, and the US government's vision to revitalize traditional manufacturing will restrict the growth rate of the global photovoltaic industry. China is expected to implement an expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming for a good start in the 15th Five - Year Plan [3][57]. - In terms of supply, Xinjiang's production share has increased this year, while Sichuan and Yunnan's operations are generally low. New production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu has been released steadily. The number of operating furnaces has decreased, and social inventory is high. Silicon enterprises' production profits turned positive in the second half of this year. The planned new production capacity in 2026 is only 700,000 tons. Domestic cumulative production is expected to drop to 4.15 million tons this year and further to 4 million tons in 2026, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% [3][57]. - In terms of demand, with the establishment of a new polysilicon platform company, a new sustainable industry ecosystem will be built. The production capacity of downstream battery and component markets will be further compressed, and photovoltaic terminal installations will enter a self - adaptive deceleration period. The silicone industry will enter a new balance cycle through production cuts. The aluminum alloy industry's production growth is limited due to the decline in construction and building materials demand. The overall demand growth rate of industrial silicon will continue to slow down in 2026, with a projected 3% decline in consumption growth [3][58]. - In 2026, the supply - demand structure of industrial silicon is expected to improve. The anti - involution policy will be further implemented. The photovoltaic industry will shift from high - growth to high - quality development, and the futures price center may stabilize and recover. The main operating range of industrial silicon in 2026 is expected to be between 8,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton [3][58]. Summary by Directory 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the industrial silicon market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The futures price dropped from a maximum of 11,130 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a minimum of 6,990 yuan/ton in early June, a decline of 37.2%. In the second half of the year, due to supply contraction and improved market sentiment, the price gradually recovered. By December 12, the main contract SI2605 closed at 8,390 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 2595 yuan/ton compared to the end of last year, a decline of 23.6%. The annual price fluctuated between 6,990 - 11,130 yuan/ton [8]. Macroeconomic Analysis Fourth Plenary Session Focuses on High - Quality Development and Domestic Demand - China's traditional manufacturing faces internal and external pressures. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes requirements for economic development, including promoting high - quality development, technological innovation, and the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials. The development of artificial intelligence is also emphasized in multiple aspects [11][12]. Dual Loose Monetary and Fiscal Policies for Stable Economic Growth - China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The official manufacturing PMI in November was 50.2. The economy has maintained a stable and progressive development trend, with rapid industrial growth, stable employment, and increasing resident income. In 2026, China is expected to implement an expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [14]. Fundamental Analysis Increasing Northern Production Share and Profit Turnaround in Southwest - In November 2025, China's industrial silicon production was 401,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. From January to November, the cumulative production was 3.868 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. Xinjiang's production showed a trend of low - to - high, while Sichuan and Yunnan increased production from the dry season to the wet season. The new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was limited. In the context of anti - involution policies, the supply side has contracted [16]. Only 700,000 Tons of New Production Capacity Planned in 2026 - As of now, China's total industrial silicon production capacity is 7.879 million tons, with an effective capacity of 7.846 million tons. The new and expanded production capacity projects from the second half of 2025 to 2026 have significantly slowed down. The planned new production capacity in 2026 is only 700,000 tons, a significant drop compared to 2025. It is expected that the total production capacity in 2026 will reach about 8.3 million tons, with a decreasing growth rate [27][30]. High Social Inventory and Stable Export Growth - As of December 12, the social inventory of industrial silicon reached 561,000 tons, a 4.6% increase from the end of last year. The exchange's average warehouse receipt inventory was between 150,000 - 180,000 tons. From January to October, the export volume was 607,000 tons, a 1% year - on - year decrease. In 2026, the domestic social inventory is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half, and the export growth rate is expected to be 5 - 8% [36][37]. Industrial Silicon Demand Analysis New Polysilicon Platform Company and Anti - Involution in Photovoltaic Industry - From January to November 2024, China's polysilicon production was 1.206 million tons, a 27.3% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, the "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" was officially established. In 2026, the photovoltaic industry will focus on capacity regulation, price monitoring, and eliminating backward production capacity. The industry is expected to enter a new balance cycle [40][43]. Silicone Industry Enters a New Ecosystem - From January to November 2025, China's silicone DMC production was 2.272 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. After the industry's anti - involution meeting in November, enterprises reached a consensus on a 30% production cut and joint price support. The DMC price has rebounded from 11,050 yuan/ton to 13,600 yuan/ton. In 2026, the silicone production is expected to grow limitedly and enter a sustainable development model [44]. Limited Growth in Aluminum Alloy Production - From January to October, China's aluminum alloy production was 15.76 million tons, a 15.7% year - on - year increase. Affected by the real estate industry, the demand for aluminum processing products was weak. In the fourth quarter, there were both production increases and decreases in different regions. It is expected that the aluminum alloy production will maintain a low growth rate in 2026 [46]. Slowing Demand Growth but More Balanced Supply - Demand in 2026 - In 2026, the demand growth rate of industrial silicon will continue to slow down, but the supply - demand structure will be more balanced. The consumption growth rate is expected to decline by about 3% [47][48]. 2026 Market Outlook - In 2026, the Fed will slow down the interest rate cut, and the US government's policy will restrict the global photovoltaic industry. China will implement expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. The supply of industrial silicon will contract, and the demand growth will slow down. The supply - demand structure is expected to improve, and the futures price may stabilize and recover, with a main operating range of 8,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton [57][58].

Group 1: Overall Investment Outlook - The copper market is expected to maintain a long - position approach with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December, considering the structural supply - demand gap in 2026 and loose overseas liquidity [1] - The aluminum market is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, but demand may be weak at the beginning of 2026 and then tighten with demand growth [2] - The zinc market's price may not fall deeply due to potential supply reduction at the end of the year. Short - term unilateral trading is advised to be on the sidelines, while attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities and 01 - 03 calendar spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - The nickel market has a weak short - term fundamental situation, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be monitored due to ongoing policy support in Indonesia [8] - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be considered because of potential policy support in Indonesia [11] - The lead market is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week, and risks associated with low warehouse receipts should be noted [15] - The tin market shows signs of weakening in the short term, but it can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [18] - The industrial silicon market is expected to have balanced supply and demand in December, with prices fluctuating with costs. In the long term, prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] - The lithium carbonate market has a short - term situation of strong supply and demand. The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [23] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices reached a new high this week and then declined on Friday night. The 2026 supply - demand gap remains, and inventory is unevenly distributed globally [1] - In China, consumption has slowed down due to high prices, and a slight inventory build - up is expected until the Spring Festival. The monthly spread and import profit window are still suppressed [1] - Overseas liquidity remains loose, and the copper price should be bought on dips, with a December price range of $10,800 - $12,000 [1] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum market was affected by interest - rate cut expectations, and terminal demand was lower than expected, causing two significant price corrections this week [2] - In the short term, the apparent demand for aluminum ingots and products is still good, but demand may be weak at the beginning of 2026 [2] Group 4: Zinc - Zinc prices rose this week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined from $163 to $90.6 [5] - Supply - side TC for domestic and imported zinc concentrates is declining rapidly, and domestic mine supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Multiple smelters will conduct maintenance in December, with an expected output decline of 15,000 - 18,000 tons [5] - Demand is seasonally weak domestically, while in overseas markets, European demand is average and US zinc imports have increased recently. The domestic social inventory is decreasing, and the spot is in short supply [5] Group 5: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly this week, demand was weak, and inventories continued to build up both at home and abroad [8] - There are ongoing disruptions in the Indonesian nickel ore market, and the policy side has a motivation to support prices. Short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be monitored [8] Group 6: Stainless Steel - The supply of stainless steel remains at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high [11] - The Indonesian policy side has a motivation to support prices, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be considered [11] Group 7: Lead - Lead prices declined slightly this week. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of concentrates is tight. The supply of recycled lead has increased, and demand is expected to weaken [14][15] - The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, but the battery factory's high - level operation is not enough to build up inventory. The lead price has returned to the 17,000 - yuan range [15] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week, and risks associated with low warehouse receipts should be noted [15] Group 8: Tin - Tin prices rose rapidly this week due to macro - sentiment and capital allocation [18] - The supply - side processing fee for tin ore remains low, and overseas production recovery is slow. However, high prices are stimulating inventory exports [18] - Demand is mainly supported by rigid needs, and downstream order - taking willingness has weakened. Inventories have increased both at home and abroad [18] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be balanced in December, and prices will fluctuate with costs [21] - In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated strongly this week. The supply of raw materials is tight, and upstream inventories are being reduced [23] - Downstream demand was active at the beginning of the week but weakened after the price rebound. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [23] - The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices stabilized, while futures prices rose and then fell. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main range between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. If production drops significantly, it may reach 10000 yuan/ton; if polysilicon production cuts are large and industrial silicon production cuts fall short of expectations, the price may drop to 7500 yuan/ton. [1] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices continued to rise strongly, with a large premium over the spot average. The supply is excessive, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. If production cuts are significant, the futures may remain strong; if not, the high premium may converge to the spot price. [2] Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in some regions shows resilience. Tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market was affected by news, with the main contract rising. The fundamentals have not changed much, with both supply and demand being strong. The price may remain strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a pullback. [5] Nickel - The nickel market was affected by Indonesian nickel ore news and macro factors. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price may repair slightly in the short - term, with the main reference range of 112000 - 116000 yuan/ton. [7] Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market was affected by low valuations and nickel price rebounds. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main operating range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton. [9] Zinc - The zinc market is affected by macro - level risk aversion. The supply is gradually changing from loose to tight, and the demand has a structural improvement. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. [13] Copper - The copper market is affected by macro factors and supply - side concerns. The price bottom has shifted up, and short - term price fluctuations may be intensified by macro events. [14] Aluminum - The alumina market has a pattern of high supply and high inventory, and the price is expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. It is expected to remain in a high - level narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. [18] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on December 17 compared to December 16. The basis of various types decreased. [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of most contracts changed significantly, with some showing large decreases or increases. [1] - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84%. The production and operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly, while those in Xinjiang increased slightly. [1] - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory inventories and social inventories increased slightly, while the change in warehouse receipt inventory was zero. [1] Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased significantly. [2] - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price rose, and the inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [2] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.67%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. [2] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased. [2] Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1.65%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 12.00%. [4] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory, social inventory, and LME inventory increased. [4] Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of lithium carbonate and related raw materials increased to varying degrees. [5] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, and the inventory decreased. [5] Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of nickel increased slightly, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel continued to rise. [7] - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel**: The cost of some methods of producing electrolytic nickel changed. [7] - **New Energy Material Prices**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly. [7] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [7] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production and imports decreased, while domestic inventories increased. [7] Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The spot price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the futures - spot price difference decreased. [9] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of some raw materials remained stable, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased slightly. [9] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [9] - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, and exports decreased significantly. [9] Zinc - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.69%, and the import loss increased. [13] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and the operating rates of some downstream industries changed. [13] - **Inventory Changes**: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased, while LME inventory increased. [13] Copper - **Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.49%, and the premium decreased. [14] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [14] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and the operating rates of some copper - related industries decreased. [14] - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased, while the bonded area inventory decreased. [14] Aluminum Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and the operating rate increased slightly. [17] - **Inventory Changes**: Alumina plant inventory, port inventory, and electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased. [17] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.55%. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased. [17] - **Inventory Changes**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased slightly. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various types of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly. [18] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rates of related industries increased. [18] - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly. [18]

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 18 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

行业自律落地预期影响，价格震荡上行 工业硅： 市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-18 2025-12-17，工业硅期货价格偏震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8380元/吨，最后收于8470元/吨，较前一日结算变化 （130）元/吨，变化（1.56）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓210810手，2025-12-16仓单总数为8815手，较前一 日变化0手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9100-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。SMM统计，12月5日至12月11日，新疆地区样本硅厂周度产 量在42560吨，周度开工率在88％，较前周环比增加。周内新疆样本硅企产量增加主因上周新增硅炉产量释放。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。SMM报道，自12月上旬起，国内有机硅单体企 业逐步进入减排执行阶段，叠加11月中旬实控 ...

后市来看，广州期货表示，建议维持震荡思路，后续重点关注石河子应急响应执行成效及下游需求边际 变化，主力合约Si2605参考区间(8200，8600)。 11月17日，国内期市有色金属板块涨幅居前。其中，工业硅期货行情呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力 合约报8555.0元/吨，大幅上涨2.58%。 供应方面，新湖期货指出，工业硅供给小幅增长，目前呈南稳北增趋势，但近期西北环保因素仍有扰 动，且市场行情持续承压，部分企业复产增产意愿减弱，后续产能释放或有收紧预期。 成本端，海证期货分析称，因煤价持续下跌引发对北方成本成本下移的预期，不过硅煤价格目前未有变 化。 需求端来看，宏源期货分析称，多晶硅企业虽维持减产态势，有机硅企业达成联动减产机制，对工业硅 需求或有减弱，硅铝合金企业则按需采买，下游整体低位囤货意愿有限。 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].

Copper - Overnight copper prices showed narrow fluctuations, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The macroeconomic environment indicates a cooling job market in the U.S., with November non-farm payrolls adding 64,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021. This data confirms a cooling job market, but its impact on the Federal Reserve's view on potential rate cuts in January remains uncertain. The probability of a rate cut in January has increased again [3][11] - The U.S. December Markit Composite PMI preliminary value is 53, below expectations of 53.9 and the previous value of 54.2, indicating a slowdown in order growth and rising price indices. Domestically, the Central Financial Office emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a top priority for next year, continuing a moderately loose monetary policy [3][11] - Inventory levels show LME copper stocks at 165,875 tons, COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,652 tons to 412,444 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,558 tons to 45,784 tons, and BC copper increased by 1,012 tons to 6,977 tons. The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting may introduce macroeconomic disturbances, leading to cautious sentiment in overseas financial markets [3][11] Nickel & Stainless Steel - Overnight LME nickel fell by 0.28% to $14,255 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.66% to 111,890 yuan per ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 360 tons to 253,392 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 2,622 tons to 37,872 tons. The LME 0-3 month spread remains negative, and the import nickel spread is stable at 400 yuan per ton [12] - Nickel iron prices remain stable, and the stainless steel spot market shows improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel at 1.0636 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.55%. However, the raw material prices are under pressure due to falling nickel prices and weakening demand [12] - The domestic inventory of primary nickel is increasing again, and the basic fundamentals are dragging nickel prices into a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas industrial policies and macroeconomic sentiment [12] Alumina & Aluminum - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2601 closing at 2,553 yuan per ton, up 0.75%. SHFE aluminum also showed a slight increase, with AL2602 closing at 21,825 yuan per ton, up 0.14%. Aluminum alloy prices increased slightly, with AD2602 closing at 20,925 yuan per ton, up 0.05% [13][14] - The SMM alumina price has fallen to 2,787 yuan per ton, and aluminum ingot spot discounts have expanded to 100 yuan per ton. The market is currently negotiating new quarterly order prices for alumina, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain production despite losses [13][14] - Domestic mining recovery is low, and external mining prices have shown slight declines. The market is gradually adjusting to a new trend of weak supply and strong demand for aluminum prices, with expectations of continued high prices [13][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 8,365 yuan per ton, down 0.59%. The reference price for industrial silicon is stable at 9,580 yuan per ton. Polysilicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 58,600 yuan per ton, up 1.48% [15] - The market is currently focused on hedging contracts or undelivered previous orders, with industrial silicon showing no clear trend and continuing to oscillate. The exchange has implemented measures to ease volatility in polysilicon [15] - The market is experiencing a disconnect between spot oversupply and warehouse shortages, with no upward driving force for the spot market. However, the lack of significant warehouse registration provides some support for the futures market [15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2605 contract rose by 1.4% to 101,060 yuan per ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 650 yuan per ton to 95,150 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 650 yuan per ton to 92,650 yuan per ton [16] - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with spodumene lithium production rising by 260 tons to 13,744 tons. December lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 3% month-on-month to 98,210 tons [16] - The market is experiencing resource supply disturbances, with expectations of production recovery weakening, leading to price increases. Even in the off-season, prices may weaken, but downstream stocking intentions are expected to remain strong [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The current stage of spot supply and demand for copper is still tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. The alumina market is in significant surplus, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts. The zinc market has a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. The lead market is affected by overseas surplus pressure, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton. The nickel and stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is more reasonable to short at high positions. The tin market emphasizes high - position risks. The lithium carbonate market has strong demand, and the price is in a strong shock. The industrial silicon market has a complex situation with supply reduction expectations and price fluctuations. The polysilicon market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, with wide - range fluctuations [1] Summary by Directory Copper - **Market situation**: LME copper briefly reached nearly $12,000, with short - term fluctuations around $11,900. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the market is concerned about the short - term balance - sheet expansion. Domestic high copper prices suppress consumption, and the social inventory of SW copper has increased to 164,500 tons. The goal of the price increase promoted by funds has basically been achieved, and some investment banks may raise the 2028 price target. The global visible inventory is high, and the surplus of refined copper is relatively stable in the UK market [1] - **Trend**: The current spot supply and demand are tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. Pay close attention to the phased reduction of positions, and be cautious about the performance of the M10 moving average. Old orders and new enterprises should wait and see, and pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea, which has been shut down for half a year, has been approved to restart, and there is an expectation of lower ore prices. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, and there has been no long - term production cut. The alumina balance is in significant surplus, and the inventory has increased by 102,000 tons to 4.585 million tons. After the economic meeting, relevant domestic themes have fermented, but the fundamental pressure is difficult to change, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts [1] - **Aluminum**: Overseas monetary policy is loosening, and there is policy expectation after the domestic economic meeting. The supply - demand relationship in the aluminum market is relatively balanced, and the price is high. The short - term shock - strengthening trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line, and if it is broken, the trend will turn to shock [1] Zinc - **Market situation**: After the Fed cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet last week, the supply pressure of zinc has weakened, and the export window has opened. The LME zinc inventory has increased to 64,500 tons. The IME plans to limit positions on key contracts on July 6, and the term structure of LME zinc has changed from B to C. The domestic refineries' zinc ingot supply is expected to decline by about 25,000 tons in December, and the social inventory of zinc has decreased to 128,200 tons. Some projects are rushing to work at the end of the year, and the orders for galvanized pipes are good [1] - **Trend**: The inventory structure at home and abroad has converged, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. Shanghai zinc is not regarded as a short - selling variety in the short term, and pay attention to the support at 22,800 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Market situation**: The export window is open, and the overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 235,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot is at a discount of $31.61/ton. The domestic lead concentrate market has tight supply, and some refineries are under maintenance. The downstream demand for lead - acid batteries is good at the end of the year, but the export is affected by anti - dumping duties [1] - **Trend**: The supply of lead ingots at home and abroad is sufficient, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: Shanghai nickel is under pressure and falling, and the stainless - steel price has also declined. The spot trading is extremely sluggish, and the inventory of nickel and stainless steel has increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is high, and the support of high - nickel iron price rebound is weakening [1] - **Trend**: The inventory of Shanghai nickel is increasing, and the fundamental situation is weak. It is more reasonable to short at high positions [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The price of tin has continued to rise last week, showing the characteristics of "increasing positions and rising, reducing positions and adjusting", mainly driven by domestic funds. The market is concerned about the security situation in the east of Congo (Kinshasa) and northern Nigeria. The export volume of Indonesia in November reached a high of 2,458 tons. The potential consumption of the tin market may show a growth rate similar to that of copper and aluminum affected by the long - term global macro - economic trend, but the consumption structure will be more concentrated. The domestic and foreign tin inventories have increased [1] - **Trend**: Continue to emphasize high - position risks, and hold short - call options as the 2001 contract options are about to expire [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The lithium carbonate futures have rebounded in shock, and the market trading is active. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 35,200 yuan/ton. The demand side is strong, with expected bright performance in new - energy vehicle sales in December and a supply - demand boom in the energy - storage market. The production of lithium carbonate in December is expected to increase slightly month - on - month [1] - **Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong shock, and the short - selling side is relatively disadvantaged [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market situation**: The price of the main contract of industrial silicon has fallen to 8,200 yuan/ton, and then rebounded to 8,400 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in Xinjiang plan to stop production. The cost of petroleum coke has slightly decreased, and other costs are stable. The supply is expected to decrease due to weather and other reasons. The demand for polysilicon is stable, and the inventory of industrial silicon has increased by 3,000 tons to 661,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The establishment of the industrial silicon platform boosts sentiment [1] Polysilicon - **Market situation**: The spot price of polysilicon has continued to rise, and the 05 main contract is expected to break through the 3,000 - yuan/ton mark. The production of polysilicon in December has a limited month - on - month decline, and the production scheduling of silicon wafers has decreased by 16.5% month - on - month. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers has increased by 2,000 tons to 293,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The futures and spot prices show different trends. The market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, and it will maintain wide - range fluctuations before the acquisition plan is further implemented [1]