Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The substantial support policies such as "anti - involution" in the polysilicon market have not been implemented in time, and the new energy - consumption national standard has limited impact on short - term supply and demand. The supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The inventory of downstream component links is high, and prices are loosening. Future attention should be paid to national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry procurement, as well as the actual start - up rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon materials remained stable on September 22 compared with September 19, while the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 3420.00% [1]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 3.24% from September 19 to September 22, and the spread between different months showed various changes [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, while monthly production increased by 23.31%. Monthly polysilicon import decreased by 9.63%, and net export increased by 94.25%. Weekly and monthly silicon wafer production increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the supply - demand balance gradually becomes loose. The expected batch production reduction of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - dry season is at the end of October, and the supply surplus is more obvious in October and narrows in November. The cost increase during the flat - dry season in the southwest boosts market sentiment. In the short term, industrial silicon has insufficient upward driving force, and the price may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon increased on September 22 compared with September 19, and the basis also showed significant changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of industrial silicon futures contracts showed various changes [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly national and regional industrial silicon production increased, and the national and regional start - up rates also increased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. Industrial silicon exports increased [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Social inventory and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly, and contract inventory decreased slightly [2]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market is weak. Although the manufacturer's inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and there is still an over - supply situation compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. Attention can be paid to the implementation of policies and the load - regulation situation of alkali plants. It is advisable to short on rebounds [4]. - **Glass**: The glass futures market is weak. The spot market trading has become dull, and the inventory of some middle - stream areas remains high without obvious reduction. In the long - term, as the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Attention can be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. In the short term, sentiment - driven factors may drive the spot market to improve, and the sustainability needs to be tracked [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions remained stable, and the prices of glass futures contracts decreased slightly [4]. - **Soda - Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: The soda ash start - up rate and weekly production decreased, the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased, while the soda - ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased. The glass factory's soda - ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate all showed different degrees of change [4]. Group 4: Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - On the supply side, the expected increase in future supply weakens the raw - material price and cost support, but the typhoon weather has raised concerns about short - term supply release. The pre - festival inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the inventory - reduction rhythm of natural rubber spot inventory has slowed down. On the demand side, although some enterprises still face shortages, the overall shipment performance is less than expected, and some enterprises' inventory may increase. Affected by the typhoon weather, the short - term rubber price will fluctuate strongly, with the 01 contract price ranging from 15000 - 16500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the raw - material output during the peak season in the main production areas and the impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw - material supply is smooth, the price may decline further; otherwise, it will continue to operate within the range [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of some rubber varieties remained stable, while the basis and non - standard price difference changed [5]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of rubber futures contracts showed various changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and China in July showed different trends. The start - up rate of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased slightly. The domestic tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the上期所 factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in the bonded and general - trade warehouses in Qingdao changed [5]. Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The log futures market oscillated. The spot price of the main standard delivery products remained unchanged, and the inventory decreased significantly. The demand (outbound volume) decreased, while the supply (expected arrival of New Zealand logs) increased. As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to whether the outbound volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. The current daily outbound volume is about 60,000 cubic meters, but it has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan/cubic meter has high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: The log futures price oscillated, and the spot price of main standard delivery products remained unchanged [7]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and import theoretical cost changed slightly [7]. - **Port Shipment and Departure Ship Number**: The port shipment volume and departure ship number from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [7]. - **Main Port Inventory and Daily Outbound Volume**: The national coniferous log inventory decreased, and the daily outbound volume decreased [7].

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | *业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月23日 | | | | 纪元菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品相 | 9月22日 | 9月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | a500 | a320 | J20 | 1.60% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | ട്ടാ | 45 | 202 | 1122.22% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9700 | 9600 | 100 | 1.04% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | -50 | -505 | 455 | 90.10% | | | 新疆99硅 | 9000 | 8800 | 200 | 2.27% | | | 基差(新疆) | 820 | 295 | 555 | 188.14% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 9月 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for industrial silicon; short-term range operation for polysilicon [3][9] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have little change, and the futures market declined due to the closing of long positions last week. The market is influenced by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies on capacity exit, the market may rise as the valuation is low [3] - For polysilicon, the market is affected by weak reality and strong policy expectations. Recently, it has returned to the fundamentals of warehouse receipt delivery logic, leading to a weak operation. It is still fluctuating within the shock range. If the market corrects significantly, polysilicon can be bought at low prices in the medium to long term [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price opened high and closed low. The main contract 2511 opened at 9,285 yuan/ton and closed at 8,950 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous settlement. The main contract held 285,490 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,802, a decrease of 72 from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. In August 2025, the export volume was 76,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 18%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was 491,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] Consumption Analysis - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the import volume of primary polysiloxane was 48,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.66% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.43%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 373,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.41%. The import volume was 7,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.16%. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 63,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.27% [2] Strategy - The spot price increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. The market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to subsequent capacity exit policies. If there is policy support, the market may rise [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 22, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 significantly corrected, opening at 52,925 yuan/ton and closing at 50,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.63% from the previous day. The main contract held 123,917 lots, and the trading volume was 253,135 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The N-type material was 50.30 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the n-type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg [4] Inventory and Production - The polysilicon inventory was 204,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.80%. The silicon wafer inventory was 16.87 GW, a month-on-month increase of 1.93%. The weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.50%. The silicon wafer production was 13.92 GW, a month-on-month increase of 0.29% [6] Strategy - The polysilicon market is affected by weak reality and strong policy expectations. It is currently in a shock range. Attention should be paid to the support level of 50,000 yuan/ton and the spot price. If the market corrects significantly, it can be bought at low prices in the medium to long term [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply glut of industrial silicon remains unchanged, and the total demand from the three major downstream industries remains flat. The current industry inventory is still at a high level, and although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces certain pressure. Today, the price of industrial silicon opened high and closed low, and the RSI indicator was overbought, with a short - term need to pull back, but the decline space is expected to be limited. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 355 yuan; the position of the main contract was 285,490 lots, a decrease of 25,607 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 54,753 lots, an increase of 1,771 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 49,874 lots, an increase of 3 lots. The closing price of the December contract was - 390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts was - 390 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 550 yuan/ton. The average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 366,800 tons, an increase of 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1,337.59 tons, an increase of 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 76,642.01 tons, an increase of 2,635.83 tons. The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.54 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.09 US dollars/kg. The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24,908.89 tons, a decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 71.12%, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points. The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.536 million tons, a decrease of 133,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 29,063.7 tons, an increase of 4,154.82 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The EU has introduced the Net - Zero Industry Act (NZIA) and the EU Solar Charter to achieve a target of at least 30GW of locally - manufactured solar photovoltaic products by 2030 [2]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: This Thursday, the spot market price of industrial silicon mainly fluctuated upwards compared with last Friday. The current operating rate was 33.12%, a decrease of 1.91 percentage points. There were production cut expectations in the southwest region, and some enterprises had put production cuts on the agenda. Most manufacturers in the southwest said they would operate until the end of October and had no plans to resume production thereafter. The northwest region had an electricity price advantage, and the factory operation was stable. In the Yili region, the operation was relatively optimistic, and large factories had expectations of resuming production. Although the operating rate decreased, the overall supply glut situation had not improved [2]. - **Demand Side**: - **Organic Silicon**: The organic silicon market declined, profits decreased, and the expectation of production increase in the organic silicon industry declined, having a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. - **Polysilicon**: The inventory of the polysilicon industry increased, the operating rate increased, and the demand for industrial silicon increased. Polysilicon enterprises raised prices strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy, and the enthusiasm for starting work increased. However, the price increase in the downstream link was limited, and in the long run, the demand in the photovoltaic industry was expected to shrink, which might limit the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The overall inventory continued to rise significantly, the price remained flat, the operation of the aluminum alloy industry was stable, but the demand performance was average, and the pull on industrial silicon was limited [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In the short term, industrial silicon lacks upward driving force, and silicon prices may shift to a volatile pattern. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of polysilicon enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot and Futures Price Trends - As of September 19, 2025, the price of East China oxygen - passed Si5530 was 9,350 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of East China Si4210 was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 100 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Supply Situation Analysis - In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 386,000 tons, a 14% month - on - month increase and a 19% year - on - year decrease. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production was 2.597 million tons, a 20% year - on - year decrease. In September, production is expected to increase by about 5% month - on - month [3][21]. - Xinjiang's weekly production was 33,610 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 69%, showing an increase. Northwest's weekly production was 10,950 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 77%, remaining stable. Yunnan's weekly production was 7,565 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 65%, remaining flat. Sichuan's weekly production was 6,035 tons, with a weekly operating rate of 52%, showing a decrease [25]. - There are many planned industrial silicon production capacity projects in 2025, with a potential production capacity of over 1 million tons. However, the industry needs to consider capacity clearance due to over - supply and inventory pressure [31]. 3.3 Demand Situation Analysis - Polysilicon: The price index this week was 52.35 yuan/kg, with a slight upward shift in the price center. Some enterprises have plans to reduce production. In August, domestic polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, and in September, production is expected to decline month - on - month [34]. - Organic silicon: The operating rate was stable, and the demand for industrial silicon remained stable. In August, production was 223,100 tons, a 11.67% month - on - month increase [48]. - Aluminum - silicon alloy: The operating rate showed a slight increasing trend, and the traditional "Golden September" effect was gradually emerging [3]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Analysis - Raw material prices: Information on the prices of silica, petroleum coke, electrodes, and silicon coal is provided, but no specific price trends are detailed [89][91][95][96]. - Electricity prices in major production areas: In August, the electricity price during the flood season decreased, and the overall electricity price center shifted downward, but it is still at a medium - high level in the past 10 years [99]. - Profit: With the recent price rebound of industrial silicon, profits have been quickly restored [108]. 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Changes - As of September 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 543,000 tons, a 4,000 - ton increase from last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 120,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 423,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons [115].

Group 1: Glass and Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints - **Glass**: Last week, the macro environment initially drove the glass futures market up, but the market corrected later. Although the spot market had good sales and inventory decreased, some regions still had high intermediate - level inventories. The deep - processing orders improved seasonally but were still weak, and the low operating rate of low - emissivity (Low - E) glass did not show peak - season characteristics. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Track policy implementation and downstream restocking. In the short - term, sentiment drives the market, and track its sustainability. For the medium - term, focus on peak - season demand [3]. - **Rubber**: Near the holiday, capital's risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the macro sentiment of commodities weakened. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 - 16,500. In the supply side, the rainy season and typhoons in the producing areas affect rubber tapping, and the expected increase in supply in the future suppresses raw - material prices. The cost support has weakened. The downstream tire factories have basically completed pre - holiday stockpiling, and it is difficult for natural - rubber futures inventory to significantly decrease. In the demand side, some enterprises still lack goods, and the equipment runs stably to replenish inventory, but the overall sales are not as expected, and some enterprises' inventory may increase. Some enterprises may control production flexibly [1]. Summary by Catalog Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in different regions were stable. Glass 2505 rose 1.13% to 1343, and Glass 2509 rose 1.30% to 1405. The 05 - contract basis decreased by 8.43%. For纯碱, prices in different regions were unchanged.纯碱 2505 rose 0.50% to 1407, and纯碱 2509 rose 0.86% to 1454. The 05 - contract basis decreased by 7.00% [3]. - **Supply**: The soda - ash mining rate decreased by 2.02% to 85.53%, and the weekly soda - ash production decreased by 2.02% to 74.57 million tons. The float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47% to 15.95 million tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased by 1.10% to 6090.80, the soda - ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33% to 175.56 million tons, and the soda - ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% to 61.49 million tons. The glass - factory soda - ash inventory days remained unchanged at 20.4 [3]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The new construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [3]. Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 0.68% to 14,700 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis decreased by 65. The Thai - standard mixed - rubber price decreased by 1.67% to 14,750 yuan/ton, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 37.72%. The cup - lump price in the international market decreased by 1.16% to 51.05 Thai baht/kg, and the glue price increased by 0.18% to 56.30 [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 50.00% to 15, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 66.67% to 5, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 55.56% to - 20 [1]. - **Production**: In July, Thailand's rubber production increased by 1.61% to 421.60 thousand tons, Indonesia's increased by 12.09% to 197.50 thousand tons, and India's decreased by 2.17% to 45.00 thousand tons. China's production decreased by 1.30 to 101.30 thousand tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.66% to 592,275, and the natural - rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3.07% to 44,553 [1]. Group 2: Log and Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints - **Log**: The log futures market closed up last Friday. The spot price of the main deliverable log was stable. The inventory increased, and the demand (out - bound volume) slightly increased. The supply of New Zealand logs to Chinese ports decreased. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, observe whether the out - bound volume improves. The price below 800 yuan has high "receiving value". In the "weak reality, strong expectation" situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: From the fundamental perspective, the supply - demand balance of industrial silicon will gradually become looser from September to October. The expected large - scale production cuts of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - and low - water periods will occur at the end of October. The supply will reach a peak in October, and the balance is expected to be significantly loose, then narrow in November. The cost increase in the flat - and low - water periods in the west raises the industry's average cost, bringing positive sentiment to the market. In the short term, the upward - driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the price may oscillate, mainly in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the production - cut rhythm of silicon - material enterprises and Sichuan - Yunnan industrial - silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [5]. Summary by Catalog Log - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures prices in different contracts rose slightly. The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 15 to - 15, the 11 - 03 spread increased by 2.5 to - 20, and the 11 - contract basis decreased by 3.5 to - 55 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% to 44. The total inventory of national coniferous logs increased by 2.72% to 302 million cubic meters, and the daily average out - bound volume increased by 3% to 6.29 million cubic meters [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon were stable. The basis of different types of industrial silicon changed significantly. For example, the basis of East - China oxygen - passing SI5530 decreased by 89.89%. The monthly spreads also had large fluctuations, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread decreasing by 233.33% [5]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national industrial - silicon production increased by 14.01% to 38.57 million tons, and the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan all increased. The national operating rate increased by 6.20% to 55.87%. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 1.07% to 12.04 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.74% to 54.30 million tons [5]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints A weekly industry self - discipline meeting was held to discuss the self - discipline process. Some leading enterprises plan to cut production. The increase in downstream prices, the meeting, and some enterprises' low inventory (unequally distributed among enterprises) support the polysilicon price increase. Currently, low - price polysilicon resources are scarce and snapped up, while high - price resources face downstream resistance. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to oscillate in the short term [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices and Spreads**: The average price of N - type re - feed increased by 0.10% to 52,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 49,500 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis increased by 91.74% to - 50. The main - contract price of polysilicon futures decreased by 0.95% to 52,700. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly [6]. - **Production and Inventory**: The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64% to 3.10 million tons, and the monthly production increased by 23.31% to 13.17 million tons. The polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85% to 20.40 million tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased by 1.93% to 16.87 GW [6].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon 11 - contract showed an upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 6.65%. It is expected that next week, the supply - side production schedule will increase, demand recovery will be at a low level, cost support will rise, and the market will experience neutral and volatile adjustments [4][5]. - The polysilicon 11 - contract showed a downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 1.73%. It is expected that next week, the supply - side production schedule will continue to decrease, demand will continue to recover, cost support will remain stable, and the market will experience bearish and volatile adjustments [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The opening price on Monday was 8725 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 9305 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.65% [4]. - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 43,310 tons, a 3.71% increase. The expected monthly start - up rate is 59.19%, a 3.32 - percentage - point increase from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week. In terms of different downstream sectors, the polysilicon inventory is lower than the historical average, while the organic silicon and aluminum alloy inventories are higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang is 3050 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 543,000 tons, a 0.74% increase; the sample enterprise inventory is 174,950 tons, a 0.57% increase; and the main port inventory is 120,000 tons, a 0.84% increase [5]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The opening price on Monday was 53,630 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 52,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.73% [7]. - **Supply**: The production last week was 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease. The predicted production schedule for September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from last month [7]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer production last week was 13.92 GW, a 0.28% increase; the battery cell production is increasing, and the component production is also increasing. The overall demand is showing a continuous recovery [7][8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 16,600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% decrease, at a historical low [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The report presents the trends of the SI main contract basis and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon [14][15]. - **Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and warehouses, including delivery warehouses and ports [18]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report presents the trends of industrial silicon production, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise start - up rates in different regions [20][21][22]. - **Cost**: It shows the cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - blown 553 silicon in Xinjiang [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Both weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing the production, consumption, import, export, and balance situations [28][31]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It includes the production, price, cost, profit, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products [34][36]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (related to the automotive and wheel hub industries) trends of aluminum alloy [44][47][48]. - **Polysilicon**: It presents the cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and the trends of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and accessories [54][57][60]. 3. Technical Analysis - **SI Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to experience neutral and volatile adjustments next week [77]. - **PS Main Contract**: This week, the main 11 - contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to experience bearish and volatile adjustments next week [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is showing signs of activity, and investors are advised to be cautious of potential disturbances. The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, cost - profit, and other aspects of industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, and provides corresponding investment views and trading strategies [1][9][10][86] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Color and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Metal Prices**: The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals. For example, the current value of the US dollar index is 97.6519, with a daily increase of 0.29%, a weekly increase of 0.03%, and an annual decrease of 9.98%. The current price of industrial silicon is 9305 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4.49%, a weekly increase of 6.40%, and an annual decrease of 15.29%. The current price of lithium carbonate is 73960 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.48%, a weekly increase of 3.93%, and an annual decrease of 4.07% [7] 3.2 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 9.47 tons, a decrease of 0.81% compared to the previous week, and the number of open furnaces is 311, an increase of 3 compared to the previous week. Different regions have different production and furnace - opening trends [9] - **Demand**: In the polysilicon segment, the weekly output is 3.13 tons, an increase of 0.32% compared to the previous week. In the organic silicon segment, the DMC weekly output is 4.86 tons, a decrease of 0.61% compared to the previous week [9] - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 69.20 tons, a decrease of 0.32% compared to the previous week. The industry inventory is 44.26 tons, a decrease of 0.41% compared to the previous week [9] - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9105 yuan, an increase of 0.17% compared to the previous week, and the profit per ton is 149 yuan, an increase of 26 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [9] - **Investment View**: The fundamental pattern continues, and the price is affected by small market rumors. It is expected that the price has a downward pressure. The trading strategy is to be bearish on the single - side market, and attention should be paid to the reduction and resumption of production by large manufacturers and changes in environmental protection policies [9] 3.3 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 3.13 tons, an increase of 0.32% compared to the previous week. The production in different regions remains stable [10] - **Demand**: The weekly output of silicon wafers is 13.56GW, an increase of 1.23% compared to the previous week. The factory inventory is 16.87GW, an increase of 1.93% compared to the previous week [10] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 24.21 tons, an increase of 3.36% compared to the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 23700 tons, an increase of 1.02% compared to the previous week [10] - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41056 yuan, an increase of 0.05% compared to the previous week, and the profit per ton is 8195 yuan, a decrease of 86 yuan compared to the previous week [10] - **Macro - factor**: A new national standard for polysilicon energy consumption is being solicited, which is more stringent than the previous version. In the long - term, polysilicon production capacity is in a reduction trend [10] - **Investment View**: It is bullish. Before the policy is fully implemented, there is room for market speculation. The trading strategy is to be bullish on the single - side market, and attention should be paid to the reduction and resumption of production by large manufacturers and changes in anti - involution policies [10] 3.4 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 2.04 tons, an increase of 2.00% compared to the previous week. The production in August is 8.52 tons, an increase of 4.55% compared to the previous month, and the production in September is expected to be 8.67 tons, an increase of 1.75% compared to the previous month [86] - **Import**: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate is 1.38 tons, a decrease of 21.77% compared to the previous month. In July, the import volume of lithium concentrate is 57.61 tons, an increase of 34.73% compared to the previous month [86] - **Demand**: In the lithium - iron system, the weekly output of materials is 7.82 tons, a decrease of 0.10% compared to the previous week. In the new energy vehicle segment, the production and sales in August are increasing, and the penetration rate in July is 48.67%, an increase of 2.91pct compared to the previous month [86] - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 13.75 tons, a decrease of 0.71% compared to the previous week. The inventory in the downstream is expected to continue to replenish, which will support the futures price [86] - **Cost - Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external - purchase ore - based lithium extraction is 77345 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% compared to the previous week, and the production profit is - 6951 yuan/ton, an increase of 612 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [86] - **Investment View**: It is bullish. Pay attention to whether the market will speculate on supply - side issues. The trading strategy is to be bullish on the single - side market, and attention should be paid to the reduction of production at the mine end, changes in environmental protection policies, and disturbances from large power companies [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic growth is slowing down, with drags from the real estate sector, weakening consumption support, and declining investment growth. However, policy - side counter - cyclical adjustments have been implemented, and the stock market remains strong while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed has started a "preventive降息周期" [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the upward risk of the US dollar may be higher than the downward risk. The exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10 in the short - term, and policy signals from the RMB central parity rate should be focused on [4]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term due to the multi - empty game and the approaching holidays [6]. - Treasury bonds should focus on central bank dynamics. There may be opportunities for long - side intervention on dips [7]. - Precious metals are expected to run strongly as the Fed's monetary policy is in a loose cycle, and gold price will continue to rise [10]. - Copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply in the short - term and stable demand [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina may run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly [17]. - Zinc is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern and is recommended to be under - weighted [20]. - Nickel and stainless steel are mainly affected by the macro - level, and the fundamentals provide no clear guidance [21]. - Tin prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton, with short - term supply remaining tight [23]. - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to oscillate between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday [25]. - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. - Lead prices are expected to be cautiously bullish as the supply - demand contradiction lies in raw materials [29]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate before the holiday, with limited upward and downward space [30]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with support from replenishment and high molten iron production but limited upward space due to demand and high shipments [34]. - Coking coal and coke prices are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, but the rebound height is restricted by high steel inventory [35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost and term structure improvement, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. - Crude oil is under fundamental pressure, and the medium - term trend is bearish, although geopolitical risks may cause short - term rebounds [40]. - LPG is expected to oscillate weakly as the overall driving force weakens [44]. - PTA - PX needs macro - level drivers to break through, and the polyester peak season is not highly expected [48]. - MEG is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan, and short - term downward space is limited [51]. - Methanol is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. - PP's downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long - positions on dips [57]. - PE is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern as the real - world situation is weak but the valuation is low [60]. - PVC is recommended to be observed temporarily due to the coexistence of weak fundamentals and macro - level expectations [62]. - Pure benzene is facing increasing surplus pressure, and its price is expected to be weakly volatile. Styrene is expected to oscillate, and the spread between pure benzene and styrene can be considered to be widened [64][66]. - Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. - Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Market Information**: There were various events such as the China - US presidential phone call, policy announcements in China (e.g., Shanghai's property tax adjustment), and overseas events like the Fed's interest - rate decision, Japan's central bank actions, and geopolitical events [1]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - economy shows a complex situation with slowing growth and policy counter - cyclical adjustments. The stock and commodity markets are affected differently, and overseas, the Fed's policy path depends on employment and inflation [2]. 3.2 RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined on Friday, with the central parity rate also being adjusted downwards [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policy. The US dollar index may mainly trade based on the current situation, and the RMB exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10, with policy signals from the central parity rate being crucial [4]. 3.3 Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index was volatile with reduced trading volume last Friday, and the trading enthusiasm declined but sentiment improved [6]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a multi - empty game. With the approaching holidays, the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [6]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bonds rebounded last week but dropped significantly on Friday, and the money market was tight due to tax payments [7]. - **Core Logic**: The economic data in August showed downward pressure, but the market paid little attention. The bond market was less affected by the stock market. The market lacks a clear right - side signal, and attention should be paid to central bank dynamics [7]. 3.5 Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Market Performance**: London spot gold and silver continued to rise last week, with short - term adjustments after the Fed's interest - rate cut but strong rebounds on Friday [10]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed is in a monetary policy easing cycle, and gold prices will continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy expectations and relevant economic data [10]. 3.6 Copper - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper declined during the week, and inventories changed differently in different markets [13]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in copper prices was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the future, copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply and stable demand [15]. 3.7 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Performance**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends, and relevant trading volumes and positions also changed [16]. - **Core Logic**: For aluminum, after the interest - rate cut, the focus may shift to fundamentals, and prices may oscillate strongly. Alumina is in a state of supply surplus and may have a weak price trend. Cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost and may oscillate strongly [17]. 3.8 Zinc - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated slightly, and trading volume and positions changed [19]. - **Core Logic**: The zinc market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut and supply - demand fundamentals. Supply is in surplus, and demand is average. It is recommended to maintain an under - weighted position [20]. 3.9 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel declined, and relevant spot prices and inventories also changed [20]. - **Core Logic**: They are mainly affected by the macro - level, with limited fundamental adjustments. The future trend needs further observation [21]. 3.10 Tin - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin declined slightly during the week, and inventories increased [22]. - **Core Logic**: The decline was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the short - term, supply is tight, and prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton [23]. 3.11 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The weighted index contract of carbonate lithium rose last week, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [24]. - **Core Logic**: The lithium - battery industry chain performed well last week. With the expected increase in downstream demand, carbonate lithium prices may oscillate before the National Day [24][25]. 3.12 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The weighted futures contracts of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [26]. - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. 3.13 Lead - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated at a high level, and trading volume and positions changed [29]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut has little impact on lead prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are stable, and prices may rise cautiously [29]. 3.14 Black Metals 3.14.1 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: Steel prices were strong, and there were price adjustments in billets [30]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of steel decreased, and demand improved slightly, but inventory was still at a high level. Before the holiday, steel prices are expected to oscillate with limited space [30]. 3.14.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market may return to fundamental trading. Supply is abundant, demand is strong, and inventory is transferring from ports to steel mills. Prices are expected to oscillate [32][33]. 3.14.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: There were relevant geopolitical and policy - related events. - **Core Logic**: Downstream pre - holiday replenishment has started, and the market's sentiment is improving. However, high steel inventory restricts the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. 3.14.4 Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese rose, and positions decreased [37]. - **Core Logic**: They are supported by cost and term - structure improvement. The long - term logic is related to the anti - involution expectation, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. 3.15 Energy and Chemicals 3.15.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices weakened, with declines in both WTI and Brent crude [40]. - **Core Logic**: The core contradiction is between fundamental pressure and geopolitical support. Fundamentals are bearish in the medium - term, while geopolitical events may cause short - term rebounds [40]. 3.15.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: LPG prices declined, and relevant spot prices also changed [42]. - **Core Logic**: The overall driving force is weakening, with supply increasing slightly and demand changing little [44]. 3.15.3 PTA - PX - **Market Performance**: The prices of PX and PTA were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [45]. - **Core Logic**: The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and macro - level drivers are needed for a breakthrough [48]. 3.15.4 MEG - Bottle Chip - **Market Performance**: The inventory of MEG increased, and the prices were affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [49]. - **Core Logic**: MEG is under pressure from inventory expectations but has limited downward space. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan [51]. 3.15.5 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The price of methanol changed, and the inventory situation was different in different regions [53]. - **Core Logic**: The main contradiction lies in the port, and it is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. 3.15.6 PP - **Market Performance**: The price of PP declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [55]. - **Core Logic**: The downstream demand recovery is less than expected, but the profit compression may trigger device shutdowns and a potential rebound [57]. 3.15.7 PE - **Market Performance**: The price of PE declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [58]. - **Core Logic**: The real - world situation is weak, but the low valuation limits the downward space, and an oscillatory pattern is expected [60]. 3.15.8 PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC prices were at a low level, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [61]. - **Core Logic**: The industry has weak fundamentals, but macro - level expectations make short - selling less attractive. It is recommended to observe temporarily [62]. 3.15.9 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Performance**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined, and their inventory situations changed [63][65]. - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene faces increasing surplus pressure, and styrene may oscillate. The spread between them can be considered to be widened [64][66]. 3.15.10 Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed, and their supply, demand, and inventory situations were different [67][68]. - **Core Logic**: Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. 3.15.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The price of asphalt declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [70]. - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. 3.15.12 Urea - **Market Performance**: The price of urea declined, and its inventory situation changed [72]. - **Core Logic**: Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73].