Macro and Strategy Research - The US economy in 2026 may be more fragile than it appears, with growth driven mainly by AI-related investments and high-income consumer spending, while other contributions remain minimal [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates due to concerns about the labor market, but the space for cuts is limited, aiming slightly below the nominal neutral rate [3] - In Europe, external risks are skewed to the downside, with challenges arising from the recovery of internal economic momentum, while defense spending supported by fiscal measures may revitalize investment in the Eurozone [3] Domestic Policy Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" framework will be adjusted to focus on solidifying development foundations while promoting a unified national market and expanding autonomous openness [4] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a more proactive stance, with an emphasis on early deployment and investment in human capital [4] - Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative but with a focus on credit quality and more precise liquidity management [4] Domestic Economic Environment - China's economic growth in 2026 is projected to remain around 5%, with investment stabilizing first while consumption requires systematic policy support [5] - Industrial value-added growth is expected to remain stable due to good external demand, while the ability of high-tech industries to break through will be crucial for improving operational efficiency [5] - Inflation is anticipated to rebound slightly, with a key focus on whether PPI growth can significantly recover [5] Fund Research - In November, the market saw a decline, with the average drop for equity funds being 2.43%, while the mini funds (500 million to 1 billion) had the smallest average drop of 2.26% [9] - The number of new individual investor accounts decreased significantly after several months of growth, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [8] - The private equity market continued to recover, with the total scale reaching a three-year high of 22.05 trillion yuan [8] Financial Engineering Research - The A-share market experienced a broad adjustment in November, with the ChiNext index dropping 4.23% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.67% [12] - The margin trading balance decreased slightly to 24,660.50 billion yuan, with a notable drop in the number of investors participating in margin trading [13] Industry Research: Metals - The steel industry may see weakened demand in December due to weather factors, leading to reduced production and fluctuating prices [15] - Copper prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply and low domestic inventory, supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [15] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to experience stable profits due to low alumina prices, despite a potential decline in downstream demand [15] Industry Research: Pharmaceuticals - The National Healthcare Security Administration is conducting negotiations for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List, which may impact pharmaceutical companies [20] - The medical manufacturing industry is facing pressure, with cumulative revenue declining by 2.9% year-on-year [21] - The upcoming release of the new basic medical insurance drug list and the first commercial insurance innovative drug list is expected to create investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector [22]

天山铝业公告称，公司实际控制人曾超懿、曾超林分别持股8.58%、6.58%。两人因自身资金需求，拟 在公告披露之日起15个交易日后的3个月内（2025年12月25日至2026年3月24日），通过集中竞价方式分 别减持不超22,949,300股，各占总股本0.5%，合计不超总股本1%。两人过往承诺均已履行完毕，本次减 持不会导致公司控制权变更，也不影响持续经营。 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/12/03 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Copper Market**: Expected price increase to 120,000 CNY/ton due to lower global copper mine production growth compared to demand growth, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap. A weak dollar environment is favorable for copper's financial attributes [1][4][3] - **Aluminum Market**: Benefiting from domestic supply-side reforms and strong demand, with projected consumption growth of 1.5% to 2.3% for electrolytic aluminum by 2028. Raw material prices are relatively weak, but product prices remain strong, leading to substantial profits [1][4][5] - **Precious Metals Market**: Long-term outlook remains positive due to global financial order restructuring, dollar credit issues, and geopolitical factors supporting gold prices. Silver has seen rapid price increases, and attention is drawn to the gold-silver ratio recovery [1][6] - **Minor Metals**: Thorium and tantalum show investment potential, with thorium's supply-demand mismatch due to global energy shortages and nuclear power development. Tantalum prices are expected to recover due to export controls [1][7] - **New Materials**: Fields such as AI chips, inductors, capacitors, and new materials for robotics have significant growth potential, driven by expanding applications of emerging technologies [1][7] Steel Industry Insights - **Challenges and Opportunities**: The steel industry faces a contradiction between the increasing proportion of high-end products and supply surplus. Attention is needed on production restriction policies, new iron ore capacity releases, and cost changes. High-end special steel is expected to see development opportunities [1][13] - **Demand Structure Changes**: The demand for construction steel has significantly declined, with manufacturing becoming the primary growth point, accounting for over 50% of demand. Key sectors include machinery, automotive, and energy [1][21][22] - **Profit Influencing Factors**: Steel industry profits are influenced by cost factors (iron ore and coking coal prices), demand from real estate and manufacturing, and the effectiveness of production restriction policies [1][28] Market Projections - **Iron Ore Market**: Supply is expected to increase significantly in 2026, with new projects contributing substantial increments. Iron ore prices are projected to be under pressure, potentially dropping from approximately 101 USD to around 90 USD [2][26] - **Coking Coal Market**: Expected to remain stable in 2026 after significant fluctuations in 2025, with supply gradually recovering from various regions [2][27] Investment Strategies - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on high-dividend, high-return leading companies across various sectors. Continuous monitoring of real estate sales and construction starts is crucial, along with the development potential in special steel [1][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities, presenting market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each. It suggests different trading strategies based on the characteristics of each sector, such as short - term trading, long - term investment, and arbitrage opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market declined with reduced trading volume on Tuesday. Major indices and four major stock index futures contracts all fell. There are preparations for commercial real - estate REITs and new regulations on infrastructure REITs. A - share market trading volume decreased, and there was a net capital withdrawal. Short - term strategies include lightly selling December put options and gradually building long - spread positions on dips [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with bond yields generally rising. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and the bond market sentiment was weak. Although there was a net capital withdrawal in the open market, the inter - bank funds were still relatively loose. It is recommended to reduce left - side operations, temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the bond - fund redemption fee new regulations. Also, consider the positive - spread strategy for the 2603 contract [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium**: Global central banks' expectations of monetary easing have decreased. Gold weakened, while silver continued to rise due to tight inventory. Platinum was dragged down by gold, and palladium rose due to industrial support. In the long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but there are short - term fluctuations. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [7][9][10] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and related routes' indices declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends. The futures market is expected to be volatile in the short term [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the spot premium stabilized. There are concerns about potential supply shortages, and copper prices are expected to remain high in the long - term. Short - term trading should focus on December interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and pay attention to support levels [12][13][16] - **Alumina**: The visible inventory continued to increase, and the market supply was still abundant. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and the main contract's reference range has shifted downwards [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Driven by both macro and micro factors, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and domestic inventory reduction [19][20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand maintains resilience. The price is expected to have strong short - term performance, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [21][22][24] - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, but the spot trading is dull. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [24][25][27] - **Tin**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, while paying attention to macro changes [27][29][31] - **Nickel**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the upward driving force is limited due to fundamental pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillated slightly higher, but the fundamental pressure has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' production - cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [33][34][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is oscillating, and market differences may increase in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, as the market faces issues such as large - scale factory resumption and off - season demand [37][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price opened lower and fell. The supply is expected to exceed demand in December, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market and take profit on put options [40][41][42] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand is poor, and the futures price oscillated downwards. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is estimated [43][44][44] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. The steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy can be considered [45][46][47] - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the operating range is given [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The price of domestic coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal stabilized. The futures price rebounded after an oversold situation. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation and consider an inverse - spread strategy [52][53][55] - **Coke**: The first - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the port trading price has declined. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and an inverse - spread strategy is recommended [56][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The market lacks guidance, and both domestic and international markets are mainly oscillating. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China's soybean - purchasing trends [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price pressure remains, and the month - to - month inverse - spread position can be held. The pig price is expected to oscillate weakly [63][64][64] - **Corn**: The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and the futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply [65][66][66] - **Sugar**: The raw - sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset [67][68][70] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price is oscillating within a range. It is necessary to wait for the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report [70][71][72] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable with a slight increase, but the pressure is still high. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [73][74][74] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm - oil price rose, and the domestic palm - oil price followed suit. The domestic soybean - oil price is oscillating narrowly. Different outlooks and strategies are provided for each [75][76][77] - **Jujubes**: The price in the production area has weakened, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal consumption during the peak season [78][79][79] - **Apples**: The demand for stored apples is average, and the sales are slow. The market situation is relatively stable [80][80][80] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation has improved, and the short - term oil price is strong. The short - term support for PX is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [80][81][81] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The rebound space for PTA is limited. It is recommended to view it as a high - level oscillation and consider a low - level positive - spread strategy [82][83][83] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [84][85][85] - **Bottle - Chip**: The supply - demand situation in December remains loose. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to short the processing fee [86][87][87] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to expected device maintenance, the inventory - building amplitude in December will narrow, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected to oscillate within a range [88][88][88] - **Pure Benzene**: The port inventory is increasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [89][90][90] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the profit has improved, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [91][92][92] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is weak, and the spot price has little change. It is expected to oscillate within a range [93][93][94] - **PP**: There are many unexpected device maintenance events, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [94][94][94] - **Methanol**: The spot price is strong, and the trading is acceptable. It is recommended to short the 05MTO spread [95][95][95] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to run weakly [95][96][96] - **PVC**: The short - term futures price has rebounded, but the supply - demand contradiction has not improved. The price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [98][98][98] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda - ash production has rebounded after a decline, and the futures price is oscillating. The glass sales have declined, and the spot price has fallen. Different strategies are recommended for each [99][100][101] - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price has stopped rising and started to fall, and the rubber price is mainly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [102][104][104] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Driven by butadiene export news, the BR price has risen strongly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 10800 [104][106][106]

铜： 隔夜内外铜价冲高回落，国内精铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普周二在白宫内阁会议 上表示，明年年初公布美联储新任主席，并在一场活动上暗示人选为哈塞特，市场认为鸽派代表人物哈 塞特若当选，将强化市场对鸽派押注，但货币刺激与通胀如何平衡则面临挑战。国内方面，关注即将召 开的中央经济工作会议。基本面方面，国内12月电解铜预估产量116.88万吨，环比增加5.96%，同比增 加6.69%，国内冶炼企业年底继续有冲产量的动作；需求方面，因铜价持续高位，终端订单有所放缓， 市场维系刚性采购需求。库存方面，LME库存增加2375吨至161800吨；Comex库存增加2351吨至391851 吨；SHFE铜仓单下降927吨至30568吨；BC铜仓单下降623吨至4879吨。美联储12月降息充分定价下， 宏观是否仍能维系乐观情绪未知，但从微观角度看，精矿短缺的故事支撑铜维系高估值，特别是CSPT 声明再次搅动国内精铜供给预期，但随着淡季来临，微观依然看不到需求的快速释放，因此价格能否持 续回升存在不确定性。 镍&不锈钢： 镍&不锈钢：隔夜LME镍跌0.91%报14740美元/吨，沪镍跌0.58%报117060元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, indicates that the European Union (EU) must modify its digital regulations in exchange for a reduction in steel and aluminum tariffs [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Context - The U.S. and EU reached a trade agreement in July, which includes a 15% tariff on most EU goods and a commitment from the EU to eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial products and certain agricultural goods [1] - The agreement also aims to reduce other tariffs, including a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, with the EU currently imposing equivalent tariffs on steel imports exceeding specific quotas [1] Group 2: Regulatory and Economic Implications - U.S. officials express that any agreement on steel and aluminum is contingent upon the EU lifting certain regulations on major U.S. tech companies [1] - This linkage of tech regulation and metal tariffs places the EU in a difficult position, as it has consistently maintained that it will not allow other countries to dictate its tech regulatory framework [1] - The imposition of metal tariffs has caused significant economic harm across the European continent, raising concerns among European officials and businesses [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may experience a short - term pull - back due to concerns about liquidity tightening caused by Japan's potential interest rate hike, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Alumina prices are expected to be under continuous pressure. Aluminum prices are likely to be strong in the medium - term. Zinc prices may be affected by macro factors, and lead prices may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Nickel prices have limited upside potential due to weak demand. Stainless steel prices are recommended for short - side allocation. Tin prices will maintain high - level volatility. Industrial silicon prices have limited downside space in the short - term. Polysilicon prices are recommended to hold short positions. Lithium carbonate prices may face callback pressure in the medium - term [3][10][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract 2601 of copper futures closed at 88,920 yuan/ton, up 0.1%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 1,209 lots to 587,000 lots. The spot copper price declined, and the supply in the market was tight. The Shanghai spot premium rose, while the North China consumption was weak, and the spot premium and discount weakened [1] - **Important Information**: The Bank of Japan governor strongly hinted at a December interest rate hike. The US November ISM manufacturing PMI index was 48.2, lower than expected. Chile's October copper production decreased by 7% year - on - year. The CSPT group plans to reduce the copper concentrate production capacity load by more than 10% in 2026 [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Concerns about global liquidity tightening were triggered by the Bank of Japan's hawkish remarks. The US ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. The copper supply in 2026 remains tight, and the CSPT group plans to cut production. The Comex copper inventory is increasing, and the LME's B - structure is expanding. The copper price may pull back in the short - term but will rise in the long - term [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider partially taking profits on long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton and rebuying after the correction. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [4][5][6] Alumina - **Related Information**: An electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan purchased 0.2 million tons of spot alumina on December 1. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi are under maintenance. Four alumina new - construction projects in Guangxi are in different progress stages [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: After the alumina price decline, there was maintenance in the northern market, but it did not affect the monthly output. Near the end - of - year long - term contract negotiation period, the alumina price is expected to be under pressure [10] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the alumina price will oscillate weakly. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [11][12][13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Related Information**: The Bank of Japan governor's statement intensified market speculation about a December policy shift. The total inventory of Chinese aluminum ingot spot was 591,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous period. The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. A 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia was put into production [15] - **Trading Logic**: The Fed's dovish remarks and US economic data increased the market's attention to non - interest - bearing assets. Aluminum has a supply gap globally, and its fundamentals are supported. In the short - term, new projects are put into production as scheduled, and domestic aluminum consumption is resilient [16] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the aluminum price will be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips in the medium - term. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [20] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Related Information**: The Bank of Japan governor signaled a possible interest rate hike. In October 2025, China's imports and exports of unforged aluminum alloy and waste aluminum had certain volumes, and the warehouse receipts of casting aluminum alloy increased [18][21][22] - **Trading Logic**: The market's concern about the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut in December was alleviated, but there are concerns about Japan's interest rate hike. The waste aluminum resources are in short supply, and the demand is differentiated [23] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it will oscillate strongly along with the aluminum price. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [24] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2601 rose 1% to 22,745 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai zinc index increased by 4,053 lots. In the spot market, the downstream was hesitant to buy due to high prices, but the trading among traders was active [26] - **Related Information**: As of December 1, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots decreased. A zinc - lead project in Algeria is expected to start production as planned [27] - **Logic Analysis**: In December, domestic northern mines will enter seasonal shutdown, and the refined zinc production is expected to decrease. The zinc concentrate import is in a loss state. The zinc price may be affected by macro factors [28] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, continue to hold the remaining profitable long positions and be vigilant against macro factors. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [32] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2601 rose 0.73% to 17,210 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai lead index increased by 2,060 lots. In the spot market, the lead price increased slightly, and the downstream maintained rigid demand [34] - **Related Information**: The new national standard for electric bicycles was implemented on December 1. The procurement sentiment of downstream lead - acid battery factories was average, and the social inventory of lead ingots decreased [35] - **Logic Analysis**: The cost of recycled lead smelting increased, and the smelters were reluctant to sell. The production of primary lead was affected by maintenance, and the inventory decreased. The lead price may fluctuate strongly in the short - term [36] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the Shanghai lead price may fluctuate strongly in the range. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [37] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract NI2601 of Shanghai nickel rose 570 to 118,050 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 1,877 lots. The spot premiums of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, and electrowinning nickel changed [39] - **Important Information**: Indonesian companies support the cooperation between Tsingshan and UNIDO. GreenMei's nickel project in Indonesia is operating normally. In November 2025, the domestic ternary material production decreased slightly, and the production is expected to decline further in December [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the supply is still tilted towards nickel sulfate. The supply - demand is loose, and the price has limited upside potential [42] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy was mentioned in the text Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract SS201 of stainless steel rose 70 to 12,465 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 5,518 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [44] - **Important Information**: POSCO maintained the stainless steel price in December. A stainless steel project in Jieyang was in the environmental impact assessment stage. Indonesia's nickel product exports to China accounted for a large proportion [45] - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand in December is not optimistic, and the domestic crude steel production plan decreased significantly. The short - term price rebound lacks a solid foundation, and the price is still restricted by inventory [46] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a short - side allocation. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [46] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2601 closed at 306,980 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan/ton or 0.24%. The spot price of tin decreased, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [52] - **Related Information**: The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was weak. In October 2025, China's tin ore imports increased month - on - month [52][53] - **Logic Analysis**: False news once pushed up the tin price. The domestic tin concentrate imports increased in October, but the processing fee remained low. The production decreased slightly, and the demand was in the off - season [54] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it will maintain high - level volatility after a short - term pull - back. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [55][56] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The environmental protection improvement project of Luxi Chemical's silicone device passed the acceptance monitoring [57] - **Logic Analysis**: In December, the production in Yunnan and Sichuan may decrease, while large enterprises in the northwest will increase production. The demand from the silicone and polysilicon industries has certain changes, and the price has limited downside space in the short - term [58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - sell on rallies in the short - term. If the inventory accumulates significantly, the price may decline further [58] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: On December 1, the clearing results of Liaoning Power Grid's mechanism electricity price bidding were announced [60] - **Logic Analysis**: The silicon wafer and battery market are under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading. For arbitrage, conduct a long - short spread operation between Si2601 and Si2602. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [62] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 of lithium carbonate decreased by 700 to 96,560 yuan/ton, and the position and warehouse receipts increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [66] - **Important Information**: The lithium battery recycling industry has improved. Tianhua New Energy plans to increase lithium salt production capacity. In November 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased, and it is expected to continue to reduce inventory in December [67] - **Logic Analysis**: There are differences in the demand side's production plan in December. The supply is expected to increase, and the price may face callback pressure in the medium - term [68] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy after a sufficient long - term pull - back. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2605 contract [69][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and the growth prospects of investment demand will boost the price of precious metals. In the short - term, low inventory and potential short - term demand release increase the upward price elasticity. Platinum and palladium prices mainly follow gold and silver [3]. - The arrival of domestic electrolytic copper is scarce, and downstream restocking at low prices has led to a decline in inventory, keeping the futures market strong. However, new downstream orders are growing weakly, and the market will maintain a high - level shock consolidation after the breakthrough [15]. - The Shanghai Aluminum futures are oscillating strongly due to improved macro - sentiment and the impetus from copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai Aluminum and has strong downside support [34][35]. - Macro - sentiment has improved, and the probability of interest - rate cuts is considered high. On the fundamental side, smelters are competing fiercely for ore, leading to a significant decline in TC. Supply is shrinking, and demand is entering the off - season. The market is in a stalemate and will oscillate strongly in the short - term [65]. - Nickel iron prices have been declining recently, and some iron plants are inclined to cut production. Stainless steel is running strongly, but its upward momentum is expected to be limited [80]. - In the short - term, the supply of tin has raw - material problems and frequent disturbances, so Shanghai Tin will maintain a high - level shock [96]. - In the context of Ningde's resumption of production, the supply - demand game in the lithium carbonate market will intensify, and price fluctuations are expected to widen. There is a short - term pressure at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and prices may experience a phased correction [109]. - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its fundamentals are difficult to improve in the short - term. In the long - term, the downward price space is limited. The short - term trading of the polysilicon market focuses on the game between warehouse receipts and open interest, and price fluctuations are expected to increase [121]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Forecast**: London Silver's target has been raised to 65 after breaking through 55, with the first resistance at 60. London Gold has resistance at 4250 and strong resistance at 4400, with support at 4000 [3]. - **Price Index**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][8][9]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories are shown [14]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The futures market is strong due to low inventory, but new downstream orders are growing weakly. The market will maintain a high - level shock [15]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, import profits and losses, and refined - scrap price differences are provided [15][22][26][29]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME copper inventories are presented [30][31]. Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Shanghai Aluminum is oscillating strongly due to macro - factors and the impetus from other metals. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [34]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, price differences between different contracts, and import profits and losses are provided [36][43][50][56]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina inventories are presented [58]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Macro - sentiment has improved, but the fundamental side is in a stalemate. The market will oscillate strongly in the short - term [65]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, price differences between different contracts, and LME zinc's 0 - 3m and 3 - 15m spreads are provided [66][71]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME zinc inventories are presented [74][76]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel iron prices are declining, and some iron plants are inclined to cut production. Stainless steel is running strongly, but its upward momentum is limited [80]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, trading volume, open interest, and basis are provided [81]. - **Related Data**: Nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins are presented [87][88][90]. Tin - **Market Situation**: The supply of tin has raw - material problems and frequent disturbances, so it will maintain a high - level shock [96]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, import profits and losses, and processing fees are provided [97][102][107]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME tin inventories are presented [104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand game will intensify, and price fluctuations are expected to widen. There is short - term pressure at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and prices may correct [109]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, price differences between different contracts, and price differences between different grades are provided [110][113]. - **Inventory**: Exchange and social inventories are presented [119]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: Industrial silicon is in a weak supply - demand situation, and its fundamentals are difficult to improve in the short - term. The polysilicon market's short - term trading focuses on the game between warehouse receipts and open interest [121]. - **Price Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices are provided [121][131]. - **Related Data**: Production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented [145][152][154].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, suggest light - position oscillatory trading, control rhythm and trading risks due to factors like supply and demand changes and technical indicators [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, recommend light - position oscillatory trading, pay attention to rhythm and trading risks considering supply - demand situation and option market sentiment [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, advocate light - position oscillatory trading, control rhythm and trading risks based on raw material supply, supply - demand and technical analysis [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,910 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 75 yuan, up 10 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai aluminum is 258,440 hands, down 7,183 hands. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,888 US dollars/ton, up 23 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 537,900 tons, down 1,150 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.59, down 0.05 [2]. - **Alumina Contracts**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,670 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 85 yuan, up 1 yuan. The main contract position of alumina is 358,708 hands, down 1,212 hands [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Contracts**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 21,095 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 115 yuan, down 60 yuan. The main contract position is 15,759 hands, up 12,052 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 21,730 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 21,730 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The Shanghai Material Trade aluminum premium/discount is - 60 yuan, unchanged. The LME aluminum premium/discount is - 27.51 US dollars/ton, down 1.56 US dollars [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 21,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Base - related Data**: The base of cast aluminum alloy is 405 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan; the base of electrolytic aluminum is - 180 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the base of alumina is 100 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production and Supply - demand**: The monthly output of alumina is 786.50 million tons, down 13.40%. The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina is 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap Trade**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 17,150 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in Shandong metal scrap is 16,700 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. China's import of aluminum scrap and fragments is 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; export is 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: The export of alumina is 18.00 million tons, down 7.00 million tons; the import is 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import of primary aluminum is 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export is 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons. The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged. The production of electrolytic aluminum is affected by winter environmental protection and seasonal demand, showing a slight decline [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly output of aluminum products is 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 50.00 million tons, down 2.00 million tons [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons. The export of aluminum alloy is 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile Industry**: The monthly output of automobiles is 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 10.66%, down 0.30%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.72%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV is 10.04%, up 0.0081. The call - put ratio is 1.69, up 0.0507 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US November ISM manufacturing PMI index dropped 0.5 points to 48.2, below the boom - bust line of 50 for nine consecutive months [2]. - In November, BYD's new - energy vehicle sales were 480,200 units. Zero - Run's total delivery reached 70,327 units, up over 75% year - on - year. Other auto companies also had different sales performances [2]. - French President Macron will visit China from December 3 - 5 [2]. - The production schedule of the three major white - goods in December 2025 is 30.18 million units, down 14.1% compared with the same period last year [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract oscillates downward, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Supply may gradually converge due to profit issues, and demand shows some resilience. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract oscillates stronger, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. Supply decreases slightly, and demand has some resilience due to end - of - year factors. The option market sentiment is bullish. Recommend light - position oscillatory trading [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy View Summary - The cast aluminum main contract oscillates, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. Supply may decline due to raw material shortage, and demand has some support from end - of - year consumption. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [2].