Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a weak trend on January 19, with significant differentiation among sectors, resulting in most varieties closing lower. The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1676.70 points, up 3.14 points or 0.19% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2312.12 points, up 3.89 points or 0.17% [1]. Precious Metals - The precious metals sector was notably active, with international gold and silver prices reaching historical highs, which boosted domestic gold and silver futures. Shanghai gold hit a new historical high, while Shanghai silver rose nearly 3% by the end of the day [1][3]. Chemical Sector - In the chemical sector, pure benzene and styrene showed strong performance, closing up 3.48% and 1.84% respectively, leading the chemical sector. The strong performance of styrene is attributed to multiple maintenance shutdowns and export factors, which have increased its profitability [4]. Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector faced widespread pressure, with Shanghai tin leading the decline, falling 5.98% after a significant drop of over 6% the previous Friday. The market sentiment cooled rapidly, leading to a correction in tin prices after reaching historical highs [5]. Other major industrial metals, including copper, aluminum, and zinc, also saw declines ranging from 0.39% to 2.33% [5]. Agricultural Products - The agricultural products sector, particularly rapeseed meal and oil, experienced significant declines, with rapeseed meal dropping 2.37% and rapeseed oil falling 1.50%. Concerns over potential increases in supply due to improved Sino-Canadian relations contributed to this downturn [6]. The overall weak supply-demand dynamics are expected to keep rapeseed meal prices under pressure [6].

Core Viewpoint - Ming Tai Aluminum (601677.SH) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be between 1.95 billion to 2 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12% to 14% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is between 1.95 billion to 2 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 12% to 14% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Product Development and Market Strategy - The company has completed SGS carbon footprint assessments for various products, highlighting the low-carbon advantages of its recycled aluminum products, which enhance market competitiveness [1] - The company is focusing on high-end sectors such as new energy batteries, automotive lightweighting, robotics, and low-altitude flight aluminum applications [1] - New products, including all-aluminum pillar robot bodies, drone shielding covers, composite aluminum materials for heat sinks, and aluminum-plastic film foils for batteries, are being launched to accelerate the transition to high-end manufacturing [1] Group 3: Growth Strategy - The company aims to drive high-end products to become a second growth curve, with continuous expansion of profit margins per ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company Ming Tai Aluminum expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 1.95 billion to 2 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing an increase of 202 million to 252 million yuan compared to the previous year, with a growth rate of 12% to 14% [1] Financial Performance - The anticipated net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 1.7 billion to 1.75 billion yuan for 2025, which indicates an increase of 254 million to 304 million yuan year-on-year, translating to a growth rate of 18% to 21% [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions in influencing metal price trends, despite a balanced supply-demand situation [2] - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend supported by central bank gold purchases and rising gold ETF holdings [8] - Copper prices are under short-term pressure due to macro sentiment adjustments, but long-term demand from AI and power grid construction remains strong [10] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain high volatility due to mixed macro signals and seasonal demand fluctuations [10] - Energy metals like lithium are seeing inventory reductions, with expectations of front-loaded demand due to changes in export tax policies [11] - Rare earth prices are recovering, driven by policy support and pre-holiday stocking demand [11] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen, with SHFE gold increasing by 3.17% to 1,032.32 CNY per gram and COMEX gold rising by 2.23% to 4,601.10 USD per ounce [8] - Silver prices surged, with SHFE silver up 22.82% to 22,483 CNY per kilogram and COMEX silver up 13.37% to 89.95 USD per ounce [9] Copper - Copper prices have seen a slight decline, with SHFE copper down 0.63% to 100,770 CNY per ton and LME copper down 1.50% to 12,803 USD per ton [10] - Supply remains tight, with significant labor actions expected to impact production [10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility, with SHFE aluminum down 1.66% to 23,925 CNY per ton [10] - The processing operating rate has slightly increased to 60.2% [10] Energy Metals - Lithium inventory is decreasing, with demand expected to strengthen due to changes in export tax policies [11] - The cobalt sector is facing tight raw material supply, leading to higher prices [11] Rare Earths - Rare earth prices are on the rise, with significant increases in the prices of praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide [11]

Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index (Long-term bullish, short-term shock adjustment), Treasury bonds (Shock), Copper (Shock), Aluminum (Shock), Alumina (Shock), Zinc (Shock), Nickel (High-level shock), Stainless steel (High-level shock), Tin (Potential for increase), Precious metals (High-level wide-range shock), Industrial silicon and polysilicon (Bearish), Lithium carbonate (No clear rating), Rebar (Shock), Iron ore (Shock), Coke (Shock), Coking coal (Bullish), Anthracite (Bullish), Palm oil (Shock), Soybean oil (Bullish), Rapeseed oil (Bearish), Cotton (Shock), Sugar (Bearish), Corn (Shock), Soybeans (Bearish), Pulp (Shock), Logs (Shock), Live pigs (Shock), Fuel oil (Shock), Bitumen (Shock), BR rubber (Bullish), PTA (Shock), Ethylene glycol (Shock), Styrene (Bearish), Urea (Shock), PF (Shock), PVC (Shock), LPG (Bullish), Container shipping European line (Shock) [1] Core Views - The policy aims for a "slow bull" in the stock index rather than suppressing the market. The short-term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout. Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels. The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The prices of precious metals are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are bearish. The prices of black metals are affected by weak reality and strong expectations. The prices of agricultural products are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [1] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Index: The stock index rose strongly in the first half of the week and then adjusted with policy regulation. The short-term shock adjustment space is limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [1] - Aluminum: The recent industrial drive is limited, and the macro sentiment has weakened, causing aluminum prices to fall from high levels [1] - Alumina: The alumina production capacity still has a large release space, and the industrial side weakens the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1] - Zinc: The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stable, but the inventory pressure is obvious. The current price has insufficient fundamental support, and the zinc price fluctuates in a range under the repeated macro sentiment [1] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The short-term nickel price fluctuates at a high level and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia, the macro sentiment, and the futures positions [1] - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel iron continues to rise, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and the steel mill's production schedule in January increases. Pay attention to the actual production situation of the steel mill. The stainless steel futures fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [1] - Tin: The short-term macro sentiment is repeated, and the tin price has corrected. However, the supply vulnerability of tin ore still exists, and it still has the driving force to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low absorption [1] - Precious metals: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the rise of precious metal prices has slowed down. The silver price has fallen under pressure. The short-term gold and silver prices are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. In the long term, it is recommended to allocate platinum at low levels or choose the arbitrage strategy of [long platinum, short palladium] [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The continuous rise kinetic energy is insufficient. Unilaterally long orders should leave the market and wait and see; participate in the positive arbitrage position in the spot and futures [1] - Iron ore: The sector rotates, but the upper pressure of iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long at this position. The weak reality and strong expectation are intertwined. The actual supply and demand continue to be weak, and the energy consumption double control and anti-involution may disturb the supply [1] - Coke: The short-term market sentiment warms up, and the supply and demand are supported, but the medium-term supply and demand continue to be surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: If the expectation of "capacity reduction" continues to ferment and the spot replenishes the inventory before the Spring Festival, coking coal may still have room to rise, but the actual rise space is difficult to judge, and the volatility increases after a large rise. It is necessary to be cautious [1] - Anthracite: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The domestic new crop production expectation is strong, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start-up maintains a low level, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "supported but no driving force." Pay attention to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document on direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the peak season demand from March to April [1] - Sugar: The global sugar is in surplus, and the domestic new crop supply increases. The short consensus is relatively consistent. If the disk continues to fall, the lower cost support is strong, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to the changes in the capital side [1] - Corn: The grain sales progress of Northeast corn is relatively fast, the port inventory is low, and the middle and lower reaches have a certain replenishment demand before the festival. The short-term spot is still relatively strong, and the disk is expected to fluctuate in a range [1] - Soybeans: With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the Brazilian CNF premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of the soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed sector from the Sino-Canadian easing, the MO5 is expected to be under pressure, and the MO5 - M09 is expected to be in a reverse arbitrage [1] - Pulp: The pulp fell today due to the decline of the commodity macro. The overall did not break through the shock range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has recently shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected that the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the external quotation in January still shows a slight decline, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack driving factors for rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - Live pigs: The spot and futures of live pigs gradually stabilize. The demand support and the unsold slaughter weight, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Products - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement affects. The US sanctions the Venezuelan crude oil export. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five-Year Plan rush work is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The asphalt profit is high [1] - Bitumen: The raw material cost support is strong. The spot-futures price difference rebounds greatly. The intermediate inventory increases [1] - BR rubber: The disk position decreases, and the new warehouse receipts increase. The BR increase slows down periodically. The spot leads the rise to repair the basis, and the BR continues to pay attention to the upward driving force above 12,000. The BD/BR listing price continues to be raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber narrows. The overseas cracking device capacity is cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The naphtha tax also has a positive support for the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high operation and high inventory, and the transaction center is average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber [1] - PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, and this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The PX fundamentals are indeed supported, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. The domestic PTA maintains high operation. The gasoline price difference is still at a high level, which supports the aromatics [1] - Ethylene glycol: The market spreads the news that two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, with a total annual production capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline due to the stimulation of supply-side news. The current polyester downstream start-up rate maintains above 90%, and the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. The suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while the buyers insist on pressing prices due to the weak downstream polymer demand and profit compression. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a bullish sentiment due to the export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward driving force needs to pay attention to the drive of the overseas market [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases slightly, and the domestic demand is insufficient. The upper space is limited. The lower has the support of anti-involution and the cost side [1] - PF: The geopolitical conflict intensifies, and the crude oil has a rising risk. The maintenance decreases, and the operation load is at a high level. The long-distance arrival increases the supply. The downstream demand operation weakens. The price returns to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: There is less global production in 2026, and the future expectation is optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate is cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the PVC production capacity to be cleared [1] - LPG: The January CP rises unexpectedly, and the cost support of imported gas is strong. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East escalates, and the short-term risk premium rises. The EIA weekly C3 inventory accumulation trend slows down, and it is expected to gradually turn to destocking. The domestic port inventory also decreases [1] - Container shipping European line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. The airlines are still cautious in their tentative re-navigation. The pre-festival replenishment demand still exists [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has shown a significant increase in stock price and trading volume, indicating positive market sentiment despite a slight decline in net profit year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 19, Shenhuo's stock price increased by 2.02% to 31.75 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 3.53 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.50%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 714.06 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Shenhuo's stock price has risen by 15.58%, with a 6.79% increase over the last five trading days, 24.95% over the last 20 days, and 32.57% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shenhuo achieved a revenue of 310.05 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.50%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.38% to 34.90 billion CNY [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Shenhuo has distributed a total of 94.22 billion CNY in dividends, with 58.43 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of January 9, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shenhuo increased to 63,200, a rise of 0.48%, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 0.47% to 35,561 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 77.66 million shares, an increase of 38.67 million shares compared to the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) starting January 1 will significantly impact China's high-carbon industries, particularly steel and aluminum exports to the EU, which account for approximately 3.5% of China's total exports to the EU [1][10]. Group 1: Short-term Impact - The short-term pressure on Chinese exporters due to CBAM is manageable, as the initial carbon cost is set at a low base of 2.5% [3][12]. - Companies that have not undertaken energy-saving and carbon reduction measures will face the most significant challenges under CBAM [1][11]. - The default emission values set by the EU for Chinese products are generally higher than the global average, creating an unfair disadvantage for Chinese exporters [3][12]. Group 2: Compliance and Adaptation - Exporting companies need to shift from relying on default values for carbon reporting to establishing their own carbon monitoring and reporting systems [4][13]. - The implementation of CBAM will require strict compliance with carbon data reporting across the supply chain, affecting not only manufacturers but also upstream suppliers [14]. - Engaging with third-party certification bodies to obtain independent verification reports can enhance the credibility and compliance of carbon data [14]. Group 3: Long-term Strategy - Companies must focus on long-term low-carbon transformation strategies to remain competitive in international markets [16]. - The expansion of CBAM to include 180 downstream products by 2028 will broaden the scope of carbon cost calculations, necessitating a comprehensive approach to carbon footprint management [16]. - Collaboration with partners who have established low-carbon transition plans and transparent carbon data will be crucial for maintaining competitiveness [16]. Group 4: Policy and Market Dynamics - The Chinese government is advocating for fair trade practices and is prepared to take necessary measures against any unfair trade restrictions imposed by the EU [17]. - The establishment of a domestic carbon market and potential introduction of auction mechanisms could help alleviate carbon cost pressures on companies [16]. - Financial institutions may introduce green finance policies to support companies in their transition to low-carbon operations [16].

氧化铝周报 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 2026 年 1 月 19 日 供应维持高开工率 氧化铝压力未减 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端，国产矿北方矿区复产节奏缓慢，南方稳定生 产，国产矿价稳定。进口矿几内亚铝土矿发运稳 定；澳大利亚受雨季影响，矿山开采及发运仍处低 位，交投清淡。供应端山西地区前期减产产能继续 复产，其他地区开工保持稳定，整体开工较上周继 续小幅增加0.31%至80.82%。下游电解铝企业产能 稳定，采购执行长单为主。氧化铝仓单库存17.7万 吨周内增加10237吨。 ⚫ 整体，氧化铝基本面仍利空主导，供应端仍未见集 中减产迹象，开工产能保持高位，同时进口窗口开 启，供应过剩局面延续。前期氧化铝期货价格快速 上涨，现货资源流向交割库存，集中交仓增加了显 性库存压力。氧化铝基本面利空，预计承压再度下 寻支撑。 ⚫ 风险因素：矿端扰动，氧化铝集中减产 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号： ...

中金主要观点如下： 供给端弹性下降且脆弱性上升 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，中国铝产业加速出海布局，具有出海潜力的公司具备更强的成长 性。该行认为电解铝在涨价过程中具备较大向上重估空间，板块有望迎来戴维斯双击。建议重点关注三 条选股标准，一是产能市值比较高，铝价上涨业绩弹性大;二是具备出海布局能力，成长性较强;三是考 虑当前氧化铝价格已至底部区域，如果出现产能关停、反内卷政策刺激以及几内亚矿业政策扰动，优先 选择氧化铝自给率较高的标的。 受制于国内铝土矿短缺和2017年以来电解铝产能天花板限制，中国铝企出海东南亚、非洲、中东等地的 进程正全面加速。率先出海的企业将构建先发优势，卡位资源和能源丰富区域。 看涨铝价和吨铝利润扩张，迎接电解铝板块重估机遇 该行认为，电解铝供需缺口持续扩大，叠加全球积极的财政和货币政策共振，铝价有望持续创出新高; 考虑成本侧有望维持低位，吨铝利润有望随着铝价上行进一步走阔。按照当前价格，电解铝公司2026年 平均估值中枢仍压在10倍附近，该行认为在涨价过程中具备较大向上重估空间，板块有望迎来戴维斯双 击。 风险 产品价格波动;海外产能投放超预期;需求不及预期;地缘政治扰动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks based on three criteria: high capacity-to-market value ratio, ability to expand overseas, and the current bottoming of alumina prices, suggesting a focus on companies with high self-sufficiency in alumina amid potential supply disruptions [1][3][4] Supply Side - Global supply elasticity is decreasing and vulnerability is increasing due to factors such as peak domestic capacity in China, energy constraints in Europe and the US, and power supply issues in Indonesia, leading to a projected global supply CAGR of 1.4% from 2025 to 2030 [3][5] - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, with a forecasted production of 4,430 million tons in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of only 2.4% [9] - The US and Europe face challenges in restoring electrolytic aluminum capacity due to high energy costs and tight power supplies, which will slow down recovery and limit new capacity [10][11] - Indonesia is expected to contribute significantly to future global electrolytic aluminum growth, but power supply constraints will hinder rapid capacity release [13][16] Demand Side - Global aluminum demand is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.3% from 2025 to 2030, driven by traditional demand recovery and emerging sectors like energy storage and data centers [18][22] - Traditional demand is expected to benefit from fiscal and monetary easing, with a projected decrease in the real estate sector's contribution to aluminum demand [22][23] - New industries, particularly energy storage and data centers, are becoming significant drivers of aluminum demand, with projected CAGRs of 26% and 13% respectively from 2025 to 2030 [26][30] Cost Factors - Alumina prices are expected to rebound due to supply-side constraints and policy changes in Guinea, despite current oversupply conditions [36][38] - The energy transition is anticipated to lower the costs of green electricity for electrolytic aluminum production, although short-term carbon taxes may raise energy costs [40][56] - Coal prices are expected to remain low, which will help suppress the costs of thermal power generation for electrolytic aluminum [41] Growth Opportunities - The Chinese aluminum industry is accelerating its overseas expansion due to domestic resource shortages and capacity constraints, with significant investments in regions like Guinea and Southeast Asia [42][45] - Guinea is highlighted as a key player in the alumina market, with plans to enhance local processing capabilities and attract investment [46] - Indonesia is emerging as a major hub for the aluminum industry, supported by government policies aimed at developing its domestic aluminum value chain [47] - Angola's rich hydropower resources and supportive policies are attracting investments in electrolytic aluminum production [48][49] - The Middle East is positioned as a cost-competitive region for aluminum production due to its abundant natural gas resources [50][51] Price Outlook - The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to experience a revaluation as supply constraints and rising demand support higher aluminum prices, with potential for significant profit expansion [52][55] - The article suggests that the sector is transitioning from a purely cyclical nature to one that also includes dividend stability, making it an attractive investment opportunity [58]