1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily outlooks and trend intensities for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move up in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Positive sentiment supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Likely to trade in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Supply - demand contradictions are emerging, and the price is strengthening, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][18]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Alumina sees capital inflows, with a trend intensity of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside, with a trend intensity of 0; Stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Pay attention to lithium - mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply - demand de - stocking makes the market resilient, with a trend intensity of 0; Polysilicon has upward momentum due to sentiment, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it will be bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][42]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][51]. - **Coke**: After the first round of price hikes, it will be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Coking coal will be slightly bullish, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][55]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price will stabilize in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][60]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental rally may be premature, and beware of sentiment reversal [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Pay attention to the previous high - technical resistance level and guard against a pull - back after a rally [2][5]. - **Corn**: Continues to rebound [2][5]. - **Sugar**: Trades in a range [2][5]. - **Cotton**: Notice market sentiment changes [2][5]. - **Eggs**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][5]. - **Hogs**: Wait for the end - of - month verification [2][5]. - **Peanuts**: Slightly bullish in a volatile way [2][5]. Others - **Log**: Trades with wide - range fluctuations [2][64].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The gold futures market shows a multi - empty game. Strong US retail data and high Fed rate - cut expectations support the gold price, while a strong dollar and tariff policy uncertainty limit its increase. The gold price remains in a high - level oscillation [3]. - Trump's tariff on copper has both explicit and implicit purposes. In the short term, copper prices may continue to oscillate [14]. - Aluminum prices are affected by macro factors. They may adjust in the short term and are expected to be weak in the long term. Alumina may maintain a high - level oscillation, and casting aluminum alloy has limited upward space [33][34]. - Zinc supply is transitioning from tight to surplus, and demand is weak. Short - term focus is on macro data and supply disturbances [62]. - Nickel prices may be boosted by factors such as nickel - iron price adjustments and potential formula revisions in Indonesia. Stainless steel and nickel salt have certain trends [75]. - Tin prices are in an oscillating trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate. The cost is supported, but the downstream demand is weak [107]. - The industrial silicon market may be in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, with high inventory limiting the upward space [116]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Gold - The fundamentals of SHFE gold futures present a multi - empty game. Strong US retail data and high Fed rate - cut expectations support the gold price, while a strong dollar and tariff policy uncertainty limit its increase. The market is short - term focused on US consumer confidence and inflation expectation data [3]. - Various data charts show the trends of SHFE and COMEX gold prices, gold - dollar index, gold - US Treasury real interest rate, etc. [4][8] Copper - Trump's tariff on copper has explicit and implicit purposes. The short - term copper price may oscillate. The closing price last week can be used as a short - term reference [14]. - The latest prices of SHFE copper futures show different changes. The spot prices of different copper sources also have various fluctuations, and the import profit and loss, processing fees, etc. are also presented [15][22][26] Aluminum - Aluminum supply is approaching the industry limit, demand is in the off - season, and macro - level tariff policies and Fed policy uncertainties affect prices. In the short term, it may adjust, and in the long term, it is expected to be weak [33]. - Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and it may maintain a high - level oscillation. Casting aluminum alloy has cost support but weak demand [34]. - The latest prices of SHFE aluminum futures and related spreads are provided, along with spot prices and basis data [35][42][45] Zinc - Zinc supply is transitioning from tight to surplus, and demand is weak in the off - season. The market is short - term focused on macro data and supply disturbances [62]. - The latest prices of SHFE zinc futures and LME zinc, along with spot prices and spreads, are presented [63][68] Nickel - The second - phase nickel ore benchmark price in July decreased slightly. Nickel - iron prices rose slightly, and factors such as Indonesian policy adjustments may boost nickel prices [75]. - The latest prices of SHFE nickel futures and related data on stainless steel futures are provided, along with information on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profits [76][82][86] Tin - Tin prices are in an oscillating trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - The latest prices of SHFE tin futures and spot prices are presented, along with inventory data [93][97][100] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate. The cost is supported, but the downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [107]. - The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices of various lithium products are provided, along with inventory data [108][111][114] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market may be in a short - term oscillating and strengthening pattern, with high inventory limiting the upward space. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt changes [116]. - The latest spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and futures prices are provided, along with data on related products in the silicon industry chain [117][120][128]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the non-US region's electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt copper prices. The main focus is on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - The price of alumina is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2,950 - 3,250 this week. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a squeeze caused by policy changes in Guinea and the reduction of warehouse receipts. The aluminum price is currently at a high level but is expected to face short - term pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances. The reference price range for the main contract this week is 19,950 - 20,750 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and fluctuate mainly, with the main reference range of 19,400 - 20,200. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions [5]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern; otherwise, the zinc price center may move down. The main reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to continue holding short positions established at previous high levels [12]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate, with the main operating range of 12,500 - 13,000. The overall supply may decrease, but the demand is weak and the inventory reduction is slow [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong in a certain range, with the main reference range of 63,000 - 70,000. However, there is still downward pressure in the medium term. The focus is on the upstream operation actions [19]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,020 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is - 64.49 dollars/ton, down 16.22 dollars/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 219.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% from the previous month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,570 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1,286 yuan/ton, an increase of 120.1 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22% from the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 monthly spread is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49% from the previous month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30% from the previous month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,110 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 monthly spread is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% from the previous month [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 1.35% from the previous day. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price (ex - factory price) is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in the current period is 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04% from the previous month. The import volume is 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% from the previous month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread is - 108 dollars/ton, an increase of 7 dollars/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39% from the previous month. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% from the previous month [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.00% from the previous day [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) in the current period is 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous month. The import volume is 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% from the previous month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is - 3,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.48% from the previous day [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% from the previous month. The demand was 83,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous month [19].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of urban work meetings and the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on urban renewal and community building [1] - The U.S. retail sales have rebounded across various sectors, alleviating some concerns about consumer spending, with 10 out of 13 retail categories showing growth, primarily driven by a recovery in auto sales [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has highlighted the need for comprehensive implementation of various livelihood projects and safety engineering [1] Group 2 - In the steel market, the profitability of steel mills remains stable, with a gradual decline in iron water production, while steel inventory continues to decrease [2][21] - The overall steel market is not facing significant supply-demand imbalances, and short-term exports are expected to remain resilient despite tariff impacts [2][21] - The macroeconomic outlook is strong, contributing to price increases in black commodities, including steel [2][21] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the banking sector has lagged [3][8] - The financing balance has increased, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments in the capital market, which may reduce stock market volatility [3][8] - A-shares are considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology innovation policies [3][8] Group 4 - The European shipping index has shown fluctuations, with the EC contract closing at 1581.3 points, down 4.28% [4][25] - Despite a general decline in shipping rates, the European line has not followed the U.S. line's downward trend, indicating a potential recovery in market expectations [4][25] - The focus is on the upcoming August shipping rates, with limited information currently available from shipping companies [4][25] Group 5 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission reported that central enterprises achieved a total added value of 5.2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [6] - The emphasis is on transitioning from labor-intensive growth to innovation-driven growth for high-quality development [6] - The National Intellectual Property Administration has reported an increase in the industrialization rate of invention patents from 44.9% in 2020 to 53.3% in 2024 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and precious metals. For precious metals, they are expected to maintain high - level oscillations due to market uncertainties. For copper, the price is under pressure due to supply - related factors. Alumina's supply - demand pattern is evolving from tight balance to structural surplus. For electrolytic aluminum, the price is short - term under pressure, and the consumption off - season may not be overly pessimistic. The casting aluminum alloy price is mainly influenced by cost and aluminum price. Zinc price may be pressured by fundamentals. Lead price has potential to rise due to supply - demand changes. Nickel price is weak but with cost support. Stainless steel price is under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance. Industrial silicon price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Polysilicon price is also expected to be strong. Lithium carbonate price will be in high - level oscillations in the short - term and may decline in the fourth quarter [2][4][10][13][18][25][29][33][37][40][43][47][54]. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold rose 0.68% to $3345.985/oz, London silver rose 0.49% to $37.87/oz. The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 98.39, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.4488%, and the RMB exchange rate rose 0.05% to 7.177 [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump's rumor of firing Powell caused market turmoil, and US June PPI data was lower than expected. The Fed's economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic, and the probability of interest rate changes is given [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: PPI data eased CPI concerns, but inflation and Fed's rate - cut timing uncertainties remain. Precious metals are expected to oscillate at high levels [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Try long positions on dips near the 5 - day moving average; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.01% to 77950 yuan/ton, LME copper fell 0.21% to $9637/ton. LME and COMEX inventories increased [7]. - **Important Information**: Rumors about Powell's dismissal affected the market. In May 2025, there was a global refined copper supply surplus. A copper transport route in Peru was unblocked, and a Chilean company's copper production increased [7][8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is relatively sufficient, price is pressured, and market procurement is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Night - session alumina 2509 contract fell 53 yuan to 3086 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable or slightly increased [12]. - **Important Information**: Related meetings emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, and inventory and production data showed changes [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand pattern is changing from tight balance to surplus, and the price is under pressure [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate under pressure in the short - term, high - sell and low - buy in the range; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [14]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract rose 15 yuan to 20445 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [16]. - **Important Information**: Aluminum inventories decreased, and there were rumors about Powell's dismissal. Housing completion data was provided [18]. - **Trading Logic**: Macro events may affect overseas aluminum prices, and the domestic market focuses on policy expectations. The supply - demand situation is complex, and the consumption off - season may not be too bad [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Aluminum price is under short - term pressure, beware of price fluctuations caused by Powell's situation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [19]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 35 yuan to 19845 yuan/ton, and spot prices were mostly stable [23]. - **Important Information**: Production, inventory, and cost data of casting aluminum alloy were provided [23][24]. - **Trading Logic**: Supply has issues with actual sales, and demand is weak. The price is mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Be under pressure at high levels; Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, or when the spot - futures price difference is over 400 yuan; Options: Wait and see [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 0.07% to $2699.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2509 rose 0.25% to 22055 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly among traders [29]. - **Important Information**: A company's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter of 2025 [29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, consumption is in the off - season, and the price may be pressured [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The price may fluctuate due to macro factors. Partially close profitable short positions and re - enter short at high prices; Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options; Options: Wait and see [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell 1.15% to $1978/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.06% to 16885 yuan/ton. Spot trading was poor [32][33]. - **Important Information**: There was an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese lead - acid batteries in the Middle East [33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is difficult to increase, and consumption is improving [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Try long positions lightly due to cost support and consumption peak expectations; Arbitrage: Sell put options; Options: Wait and see [34]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell to $14990/ton, Shanghai nickel fell to 119640 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [36]. - **Important Information**: In May 2025, there was a global nickel supply surplus. There were concerns about US tariffs, and Philippine nickel exports to Indonesia were expected to increase [36][37]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is affected by tariff concerns, and the price is weak with cost support [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given context. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel fell to 12680 yuan/ton, and spot prices were provided [38]. - **Important Information**: Stainless steel inventory decreased in Foshan, and Indian stainless steel consumption data was provided [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand imbalance leads to price pressure [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Sell on rebounds; Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures contract fell 0.91% to 8685 yuan/ton, and some spot prices rose [43]. - **Important Information**: The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [43]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The overall supply in July may decrease, and the market may reach a balance. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [43]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Be bullish in the short - term; Arbitrage: Stop the profit of the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; Options: None [44][45]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures contract rose 1.50% to 42945 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased [47]. - **Important Information**: There was a photovoltaic project component procurement bid [47]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Market rumors focus on "anti - involution" and cost - based sales. The price increase can be passed on to downstream, and the price is expected to be strong [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Be strong in the short - term; Arbitrage: Stop the profit of the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; Options: Wait and see [49]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose to 66420 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased [52]. - **Important Information**: The Asian lithium market faces downward pressure, and there were news about lithium mine projects [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - side disturbances prevent deep price drops in the short - term, and the price may decline in the fourth quarter [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate at high levels in the short - term, beware of policy risks; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rumor of Powell's dismissal caused market turmoil, with the stock market initially falling and then rising, the dollar and bond yields dropping, and gold prices rising. Trump denied the rumor but hinted that dismissal could be possible under justifiable reasons [8][23]. - The market is paying attention to various commodities. For example, polysilicon may see its futures price hit new highs due to policy expectations, while styrene remains a short - allocation target. Natural rubber can be considered for long positions on dips due to weather disturbances, and cotton futures are technically strong but face some upward - limiting factors [9][11][12][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver to break through and rise. The trend intensities for gold and silver are both 1. The rumor of Powell's dismissal led to a rise in gold prices [17][23][25]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0. Macro events include the Powell dismissal rumor, and micro events involve mining investments and import data [17][27][29]. - **Zinc**: It is under pressure. The trend intensity is - 1. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's potential response are the main news [17][30][31]. - **Lead**: There may be a limit to its downside. The trend intensity is 0. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's response are the key news [17][33][34]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening. The trend intensity is - 1. The market is affected by macro events such as the Powell dismissal rumor and Trump's tariff plans [17][36][39]. - **Aluminum**: It faces upward pressure. Alumina requires attention on the impact of the ore end, and cast aluminum alloy oscillates within a range. The trend intensities for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are 0, - 1, and 0 respectively [17][40][41]. - **Nickel**: News affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and the macro situation. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are news about nickel supply and production in Canada, Indonesia, etc. [17][42][46]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Lithium - For lithium carbonate, the warehouse receipts continue to decline, and attention should be paid to substantial changes in supply. The trend intensity is 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has increased, and the new energy vehicle market shows certain trends [17][47][50]. 3.2.2 Silicon - related - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should be paid to the upward space. Polysilicon: Market news continues to ferment. The trend intensities for both are 1. The US has launched a national security investigation on polysilicon imports [17][51][53]. 3.2.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0. The Central Urban Work Conference is an important macro event [17][54]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are data on steel production, exports, and inventory [17][56][60]. - **Silicon - based Alloys (Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price and production - related news [17][61][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price, inventory, and position - related data [17][65][67]. 3.2.4 Energy - **Thermal Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend intensity is 0. There are price and position - related data [17][69][72]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The futures price has reached a new high for the year. It is technically strong in the short term, but factors such as poor downstream profits and new cotton harvest expectations may limit the upward movement. The trend intensity is not explicitly stated [14][17][20]. - **Natural Rubber**: Due to weather disturbances, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. The supply in Thailand is affected by rain, and the domestic production areas are also affected by weather to some extent [12][13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the US may not fully impact the CL spread in the short - term due to high US copper inventory. Attention should be paid to tariff exemptions for some countries. After the tariff implementation, the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply - demand is balanced. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - For zinc, prices fluctuate widely. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak at home and weak in Europe overseas. There is a risk of a squeeze in overseas LME inventory. The strategy is to short zinc on rebounds, hold long positions in the domestic - foreign positive spread, and look for long positions in the monthly spread [2]. - For nickel, supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable overseas and slightly decreasing at home. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban, concerns are relieved. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continued to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, supply is reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [10]. - For lead, prices decline slightly. Supply is weak, demand is uncertain, and there is a seasonal peak expectation in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [12]. - For tin, prices fluctuate widely. Supply may decline in July - August, demand is weak, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to news from the Wa State mines [14]. - For industrial silicon, production is expected to decline, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the start - up does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [17]. - For lithium carbonate, futures prices rebound. Supply - demand is strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A downward turn requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by 165, and LME inventory increased by 850 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports. The US has filled its annual copper import gap, and the CL spread may not fully reflect the tariff. The export of South American countries may be affected, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price changed by 40, and LME inventory increased by 11425 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply - demand is balanced in July [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, and LME inventory increased by 5200 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak. There is a risk of a squeeze in overseas LME inventory [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1550, and LME inventory remained unchanged [6]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable overseas and slightly decreasing at home. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban, concerns are relieved [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the 201 cold - rolled coil price increased by 50 [10]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing [10]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the lead price decreased slightly, and LME inventory increased by 10125 tons [12][21]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is weak, demand is uncertain, and there is a seasonal peak expectation in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the LME tin inventory decreased by 115 tons [14]. - **Market Situation**: Supply may decline in July - August, demand is weak, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to news from the Wa State mines [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis decreased by 90, and the 553 East China and Tianjin basis increased by 60 [17]. - **Market Situation**: Production is expected to decline, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the start - up does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 250, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1 [19]. - **Market Situation**: Futures prices rebound. Supply - demand is strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A downward turn requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic semi - annual "report card" shows that the H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The fixed - asset investment grew by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][11]. - The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of treasury bond futures. However, the "anti - involution" policy drives up the prices of some commodities, and the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of short - term price rebound but may still fluctuate due to hedging pressure and no signs of production cuts at the mine end [4][5][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. International News - On July 15, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the US unadjusted CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [6]. b. Domestic News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14 - 15, emphasizing achievements in urban development since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [7]. c. Industry News - On July 15, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [8]. d. Key Varieties Analysis - **Equity Index**: The US three major indexes mainly declined. The previous trading day's equity index fluctuated and declined. The communication sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the fall. The market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.6575%. The central bank's net investment in the open - market operation was 173.5 billion yuan [3][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production of carbonate lithium decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons. The demand is expected to increase, while the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [4][20]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The investment value of A - shares is high in the long - term. The banking sector with high interest and low volatility has performed well since 2025 [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins declined. The consumption is in a relative off - season, and the cost support has weakened [13]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The supply is shrinking, and the market expects better results. Soda ash futures also declined, and the inventory is under pressure [14]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new rubber in domestic production areas is affected by rainfall, but the overall supply pressure is increasing, and the upward space is limited [16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: After the release of inflation data, gold and silver weakened. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, but the long - term driving force for gold still exists [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the low processing fee of concentrates and stable downstream demand [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and downstream demand is mixed [19]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [22]. - **Steel**: The supply and demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure still exists, and the market focuses on the "anti - involution" policy expectation [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the demand for US soybeans in biodiesel may support the price, and the domestic market is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is neutral to bearish, but the strong demand in India may support the palm oil price, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose strongly. The market is still speculating on the freight rate space in August, and the focus is on the 10 - contract [28].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment in both China and the U.S. is showing signs of concern due to trade issues, with manufacturing PMI indicating a decline in economic activity [1] - Recent domestic meetings suggest strong policy support expectations, alongside a potential easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics Copper Market - Supply constraints in copper mining persist, with tight supply conditions expected to continue [2] - Despite production increases, there are pressures for supply contraction due to mining challenges [2] - Demand has improved post-Qingming Festival, but overall investment in power engineering is lagging compared to last year [2][3] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories remain low, prompting strategies to capitalize on market conditions [3][12] Aluminum Market - Aluminum supply constraints are well-known, with no significant increases expected [5] - Downstream demand for aluminum is declining as the industry enters a seasonal downturn [6] - The production of aluminum is under pressure due to reduced demand, leading to profit compression [6] - The supply of bauxite remains ample, but the overall aluminum market is facing downward price pressure [7][8] - The aluminum market is expected to experience a seasonal decline in production, impacting profit margins [18] Strategic Insights - A strategy of "backwardation" in the aluminum market is suggested, as supply pressures and reduced demand are anticipated [18][19] - The copper market is experiencing a "month spread" strategy, indicating potential for short-term gains despite overall market concerns [4][22] - The overall sentiment in the aluminum market is bearish, with recommendations to adopt a cautious approach to trading strategies [24] Key Data Points - The copper price has reached levels where downstream orders are slowing, indicating a potential market correction [12] - The domestic copper mining output is constrained, with global production growth remaining limited [10][11] - The aluminum market is facing a significant decline in demand, particularly in sectors related to construction and new energy vehicles [13][17] Conclusion - The current market conditions for both copper and aluminum indicate a complex interplay of supply constraints and fluctuating demand, necessitating careful monitoring and strategic positioning by investors [24]