才上市五天的摩尔线程，股价像坐火箭一样冲上了941元，单日暴涨28%，总市值飙到了4400多亿。 这只新股的光芒似乎有些刺眼，它疯狂吸金的同时，三大指数却集体栽了个跟头。 沪指跌0.7%，失守3900点关口；深成指跌了1.27%；创业板指更惨，跌幅达到1.41%。 整个市场一片绿油油，近4400只个股下跌，上涨的仅仅1000出头。 盘面上并非毫无亮点，只是这点亮光在普跌之下显得有点微弱。 商业航天概念逆势走强，再升科技拉出4连板，四川金顶、华菱线缆等十多只股票涨停。 这背后有消息面的刺激，长征系列火箭刚创下"一日三发"的新纪录，国家航天局也设立了商业航天司，给行业画出了明确的发展蓝图。 可控核聚变概念也表现抢眼，天力复合收获了"30cm"涨停，华菱线缆、永鼎股份等纷纷涨停。 有研报估算，国内几个关键的核聚变装置投资规模可能接近 1400亿元，这个想象空间吸引了部分资金在市场调整时布局。 临近尾盘，零售板块有些个股突然异动拉升。 永辉超市盘中大涨近9%，尝试冲击第四个涨停板，茂业商业更是上演了"地天板"的惊险走势。 美联储凌晨刚刚宣布降息25个基点，这本该是个好消息，但市场却一点也不买账。 美联储的"点阵图"泼 ...

Market Overview - On December 11, the market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.41% [1] - Nearly 4,400 stocks in the market declined, with a total trading volume of 1.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 786 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace and newly listed stocks sectors saw the largest gains, while sectors such as real estate and Fujian stocks faced significant declines [1] - The stock "Moore Threads" reached a market capitalization of 440 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 12.4 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1][6] Stock Movements - Notable stock movements included: - New Yi Qi down 3.64% with a trading volume of 26.568 billion yuan, up 406.55% year-to-date - ZTE Corporation down 10% with a trading volume of 16.919 billion yuan, down 4.55% year-to-date - Moore Threads up 28.04% with a trading volume of 12.448 billion yuan, unchanged year-to-date [5] Investment Sentiment - Some investors expressed concerns that the strong performance of "Moore Threads" might be detracting from the technology sector and the broader market [3] - The market is currently perceived to be in a consolidation phase, with opportunities to identify core sectors for investment during pullbacks [13] Industry Developments - The commercial aerospace sector has seen recent positive developments, including the successful launch of multiple satellites on December 10, which may boost investor confidence in the sector [15] - The energy infrastructure sector is also gaining attention, driven by the increasing demand for power due to AI computing needs and the ongoing transition to renewable energy sources [14]

生意社 白银价格大涨 据生意社商品行情分析系统，2025年12月10日白银市场均价14319元/千克，日涨4.95%，较本月初(12月 1日)市场均价13414元/千克，上涨6.75%；较年初（1月1日）白银市场均价7450元/千克，上涨92.20%。 白银工业需求占比已升至65%，成为价格主导力量。其中光伏产业是核心增量来源，2025年全球光伏用 银量较2022年翻番，且N型电池普及进一步增加单GW耗银量，四季度全球光伏企业为2026年备货加大 订单，11-12月用银需求大幅放量；同时AI算力服务器、数据中心订单坚挺，其单机柜耗银量远高于传 统设备，再加上新能源汽车单车用银量远超传统燃油车，这些高增长领域共同推高了白银工业需求。 2025年12月10日上海黄金交易所上海银(标准重量15千克、成色不低于99.99%的银锭，定价合约)午盘基 准报价14318元/千克，较上一交易日午盘基准报价13579元/千克，上涨739元/千克。 12月10日白银期现价格联袂续创新高，伦敦银现涨近1%，沪白银主力合约单日涨幅更是高达5.27%。 多因素共振支撑白银暴涨 此次大涨是工业需求、供需格局、金融政策及资金流入等多方面因 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the anticipated "spring rally" in the A-share market may start earlier than usual, potentially in mid to late December 2025, due to multiple positive factors converging [1] Group 2 - Three major supportive forces are forming: global liquidity easing, with the Federal Reserve expected to announce a third interest rate cut, enhancing the attractiveness of A-shares as a valuation haven [2] - Domestic policy measures are being implemented, including a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [3] - Risk factors are decreasing as global economic policies become clearer, and domestic capital market reforms deepen, leading to enhanced market stability [4] Group 3 - The current "spring rally" is underpinned by solid industrial foundations, with significant breakthroughs in new productivity sectors such as commercial aerospace and AI, which are expected to drive market growth [5] Group 4 - Three main investment themes are identified for the upcoming rally: 1. The financial sector, particularly brokerages benefiting from increased capital leverage and active market trading [6] 2. The technology growth sector, focusing on areas with strong policy support and rapid industrial progress, such as commercial aerospace and AI infrastructure [7] 3. Cyclical core assets, selecting midstream manufacturing and recovery-related stocks benefiting from consumer demand [7] Group 5 - Key insights from major brokerages include: - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of cost-effectiveness in investment, focusing on aerospace and AI-related sectors [8] - Open Source Securities highlights the long-term advantages of technology and suggests focusing on military and media sectors [9] - Guoxin Securities notes that external pressures on A-shares are easing, with liquidity expectations improving [9] - Other brokerages also predict an early start to the spring rally, driven by positive short-term policies and external events [9]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Bank of America suggests that the market may soon start betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, despite cautious signals from the Fed [1] - The bank anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in December, along with stronger guidance and dissenting opinions, projecting stronger growth and lower inflation [1] - Analysts believe that with significant data releases before January, Chairman Powell will find it difficult to suppress market expectations for further easing [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook in Thailand - Barclays economists report that the Bank of Thailand may resist rate hikes in 2026 due to lower-than-potential growth prospects and inflation rates below the 1%-3% target range [2] - The central bank aims to maintain a loose monetary policy and focus on addressing structural economic issues [2] - Even with rising price pressures, the central bank is unlikely to change its policy stance, prioritizing economic growth and financial stability over inflation [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Technology and Commodities - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) sees significant investment opportunities in the technology sector within the machinery industry for 2026, driven by domestic demand recovery and high export growth [3] - CITIC Construction points out that copper, aluminum, and gold have clear long-term investment logic due to global macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [4] - The report highlights that copper will benefit from supply tightness and green economy demand, while aluminum is constrained by domestic capacity limits [4] Group 4: Energy Storage and AI Development - CITIC Construction expects the energy storage industry to see a rise in both volume and price by 2026, with manufacturing profitability currently at unsustainable low levels [5] - The ongoing development of AI large models and applications is noted, with a recommendation to continue focusing on the AI computing power sector [6] - The report emphasizes the potential for new application scenarios and business models arising from the construction of space data centers [8] Group 5: Market Predictions for Copper and Panel Industry - CITIC Securities predicts that LME copper prices could accelerate towards $12,000 per ton, driven by narratives of U.S. copper stockpiling and domestic production cuts [8] - The panel industry is expected to see a positive long-term outlook due to improved competition dynamics and a shift from price-driven profit to value creation [9]

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 12月8日，A股的AI算力概念股大涨。 当日市场成交额超100亿元的个股有11只，其中AI算力概念股占7只，成交额前6均是AI算力概念股，呈现 霸榜之势，光模块三杰"易中天"再次占据成交额前3强，足见资金的追捧程度。中际旭创、天孚通信均创下历史新高。东田微、汇绿生态、宏和 科技、景旺电子、光库科技等多只AI算力概念股涨停或大涨。 展望2026年，AI算力板块依然是很多机构看好的方向。 经过最近2-3个月的震荡盘整之后，资金再次聚集AI算力板块，或是部分机构在布局 2026年的行情。 AI算力板块走强背后主要是机构资金在推动 。为了给读者提供一些参考，笔者梳理出了公募基金、北向资金重仓以及机构最近调研过的AI算力 概念股。 （ 点此查看名单 ） 01 公募基金重仓中际旭创、新易盛均达千亿元！ 公募基金是 A股的主要机构投资者之一，也是史上多个赛道板块的主力资金之一 。根据Choice数据 统计，2025年三季度末， 有 38只AI算力概 念股被基金持股均超10亿元 ，其中，光模块公司中际旭创、新易盛均被基金持股超1100亿元，寒武纪、天孚通信等11 ...

可能有人会担心赚指数不赚钱，我跟兄弟们说三个硬核底气，绝对不是画大饼。第一，地量见地价。这 两周成交量萎缩得厉害，大家都在观望，这意味着筹码非常珍贵，抛压很轻。只要有少量资金入场，指 数就能轻轻松松快速拉升。第二，政策王炸。证监会放开了保险资金入市，几千亿甚至上万亿的资金有 望进入股市。下周四美联储又将议息，外资回流A股的意愿也会更强。第三，机构资金已经在行动。像 北向资金连续净流入，按计划布局蓝筹，核心资产、大盘股发力指日可待。 不过，下周行情很难出现普涨，主要是整体量还不够。但有三个主线值得我们重点关注。一是大金融， 券商和保险是指数的发动机。这周保险已经先行启动，下周券商能否跟进，就是一个关键关注点。二是 大科技，像AI算力，有广州人工智能大会加持，大厂订单放量，赚钱机会肯定少不了。三是大消费， 年底是消费旺季，能蹭上节日气氛的红利，细分领域表现也不会差。 接下来，我给兄弟们掰扯清楚下周上涨的核心逻辑。麻烦新老朋友先点亮小红心，支持万里。咱们先说 大盘，再说机会。上周五大盘稳稳站上了3900点的心理关口，下周的主基调是震荡上行。短线来看，它 会回补上方3927附近的缺口。要是成交量能跟得上，下周冲击39 ...

策略综述及建议 策略综术 【指数判断】 进入四季度下半旬，板块轮动加快。股指震荡为主;中长期来看,国内市场为流动性叙事,增量资金源源不断，股指盘整过后仍有上行动能。 【逻辑跟踪】 1. 国际形势是复杂的,中美经贸磋商取得积极成果,双方在关税、海事等多方面达成共识。 板块轮动加快，股指缩量震荡 日期：2025-12-07 【股指期货周报20251207】板块轮动加快，股指缩量震荡 2. 美国进入新的降息周期,降息利于人民币升值,利于外资回流,带来新的增量资金。 3.当前稳定资本市场政策积极，股指底线明确，而新技术、新消费在推动者经济预期企稳回升："十五五"规划提高对科技创新要求，扩内需，未来五年政策 大方向落地。 4. 无风险利率降至低位后,中长期资金入市及居民入市将进入全新周期。 5. 未来指数需要关注成交情况,两市成交若能维持在两万亿上方,则仍能维持相对强势。 6. 建议重点配置具备盈利确定性的半导体、AI算力等科技成长赛道，同时关注金融、Giz券 、消费等低估值防御板块的轮动配置价值。 【风险提示】 浙商期货有限公司 报告撰写人:周志超 从业资格号: F03087618 投资咨询号: Z0019474 全 ...

Group 1 - The technology sector has undergone a one-and-a-half-month adjustment, with expectations that a bottom may be reached around mid to late November [1][10] - The low point of the bottom sector is becoming clearer, allowing for gradual attention to broad technology ETF products [1][10] - There is ongoing speculation about whether high-positioned sectors will experience further declines, while the next core direction for growth remains uncertain [1][10] Group 2 - Following the review of the A-share and US stock markets post-November 12, several companies, including Nvidia, Tesla, and Kioxia, have shown indiscriminate declines due to reduced expectations for a December interest rate cut [2][11] - The A-share technology sector is experiencing a "top sector contraction" while the bottom sector is facing overselling, with strong fundamental companies like Zhongji Xuchuang being deeply supported [2][11] - Weak sectors such as robotics and edge chips have entered a continuous oversold phase, indicating a risk-averse sell-off by investors [2][11] Group 3 - The current rebound in the technology sector is primarily driven by liquidity rather than clear industrial logic, suggesting a general rebound without a defined industry-level focus [3][12] - High-positioned stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang have not significantly declined, while low-positioned sectors such as edge chips and domestic robotics have returned to early May levels, indicating deep adjustments [3][13] Group 4 - The combination of Google's large model and chips is strong, but significant short-term price increases for companies nearing a $4 trillion market cap are challenging [4][13] - Google's v6p chip has a lower cost-performance ratio compared to Nvidia's B200, and the competitive dynamics between Google TPU and Nvidia are still unfolding [4][13] - The potential disruption of Nvidia by TPU could lead to declines in the performance of the Huabao AI ETF, indicating ongoing uncertainty in this competitive landscape [4][13] Group 5 - The current ETF allocation strategy suggests that with the US stock market showing signs of a significant bottom rebound, the configuration of broad technology ETFs has become valuable [5][14] - The focus should be on ETFs with certain safety margins, including the Huabao AI ETF, Hong Kong Information Technology ETF, and Financial Technology ETF, among others [5][14]

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced a rebound after a significant decline, but the adjustment in technology growth stocks regarding cost-effectiveness issues is still ongoing, with the adjustment magnitude having surpassed half but the time insufficient for a complete recovery [2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The current market is within the "two-phase bull market" framework, with the first phase at a high level. The AI industry chain is experiencing a trend that has not yet concluded, leading to a situation where the cost-effectiveness of mid and small-cap stocks is temporarily insufficient [2][3]. - Historical experience suggests that when technology adjustments approach the bull-bear boundary, it may indicate a mid-term bottom area. However, the challenge lies in waiting for industrial catalysts and performance validation to digest valuations [2][3]. - The adjustment in technology growth stocks has reached over half of its potential, but the time required for a complete adjustment remains a challenge. A significant recovery in long-term cost-effectiveness may signal the resumption of an upward trend [2][3]. Group 2: Spring Market Outlook - The spring market is positioned as a potential rebound phase within the high-level adjustment of the bull market 1.0. The overall market adjustment pressure is limited, leaning towards this scenario [4]. - There are two potential scenarios for the spring market: it may either be a rebound within the high-level adjustment phase or a transition from the adjustment phase to a bottoming phase [4]. - The spring market is expected to see effective rebounds in offensive assets (technology and cyclical sectors), but upward breakthroughs may be challenging due to high supply growth and limited improvement in supply-demand dynamics [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The "policy bottom" may be validated earlier, and cyclical price increases could serve as the foundation for the spring market, with a focus on basic chemicals and industrial technology sectors [4]. - Technology stocks are likely to experience a general rebound as their adjustment magnitude reaches a critical point. Key areas to watch include innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense industries, as well as AI computing power, storage, energy storage, and robotics [4][6]. - The Hong Kong stock market continues to exhibit high beta characteristics, with the Hang Seng Technology index showing more substantial adjustments and potential for a more elastic rebound [4].