图说大宗 证券研究报告 2026.02.08 图说大宗：宏观情绪与基本面共振，金 银铜波动加剧 SAC 执证编号：S0080513070006 SFC CE Ref：BBU524 chaohui.guo@cicc.com.cn 郭朝辉 分析员 王炙鹿 分析员 陈雷 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523030003 zhilu.wang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080524020004 lei.chen@cicc.com.cn 宏观回顾：国内内需仍偏弱，沃什难撼扩表 国内方面，1 月中采制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.3%，低于市场预期（Reuters 预测中值 50.0%；1 月非制造业商务活动指数环比下降 0.8ppt 至 49.4%；综合 PMI 环比下降 0.9 个百分点至 49.8%，皆再度回到收缩区间。中金宏观组认为，季节性因素或对数据扰动较大，但除了季节性以外， 需求仍然弱于供给，两者缺口进一步扩大。结构上，消费品制造业和小型企业回落较多。制造业整体受 大宗商品价格上涨影响，原材料购进价格上升，但向下游传导能力仍受制于需求。建筑业受天气和季节 性因素影 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月10日 (原油) 美伊均对上周五在阿曼举行的会谈给予积极评价,并计划本周继续磋商。市场短期认为局势失控风 险降低,对冲突和供应中断的担忧有所缓解。这一判断也与政治现实相符：考虑到低油价承诺及中 期选举临近，美方在选前主动升级局势的可能性较低。然而伊朗态度依然强硬，其外长强调承认铂 浓缩权利是谈判关键,双方核心分歧显著,僵局可能持续。而特朗普在委内瑞拉的成功或增强其对 伊朗的施压信心，不愿轻易让步。因此短期内对峙难有突破。布伦特油价在68-70美元区间大幅震 荡，反映出在谈判前景不明、对峙持续的背景下，市场持续计入地缘风险溢价。预计油价将保持高 波动性，且继续蕴含显著的地缘政治风险溢价。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡反弹。市场聚焦本周美国非农就业和CPI数据以重新评估降息前景，美国国家经济委 员会主任哈塞特预警就业增长数字将会下降，但认为GDP增长非常强劲。美伊谈判将会继续，她缘仍 存在不确定性。短期贵金属处于剧烈震荡阶段，观望等待波动率下降。 （铜） 隔夜铜价随贵金属反弹，沪铜节前继续减仓，市场持续关注地缘风险与长线战略金属价值 ...

智利央行周一公布的数据显示，1月铜出口收入为45.5亿美元，较上年同期增长7.8%。 智利是全球最大的铜生产国。 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn （文华综合） ...

Group 1 - Precious metals have regained upward momentum, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.1% to $5084.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 8% to $83.05 per ounce [1] - CITIC Securities indicates that uncertainties driven by the Trump administration's policies and the midterm elections may remain high, but an optimistic outlook for the gold market is still possible, which could positively influence other precious metals [1] - The bullish trend in non-ferrous metals is anticipated to continue into 2026, especially if leading indicators for infrastructure and manufacturing in China and the U.S. show improvement [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the National Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has its top ten weighted stocks including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 49.87% of the index [2] - The Non-Ferrous ETF Penghua closely tracks the National Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [2]

2026年2月10日早盘，截至10:06，中证500质量成长指数上涨0.38%，成分股豪迈科技上涨5.85%，网宿 科技上涨4.97%，烽火通信上涨4.34%，恺英网络上涨3.99%，光迅科技上涨3.58%。500质量成长 ETF(560500)上涨0.15%。（文中所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况 不代表基金未来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化，投资 需谨慎） 据Wind数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证500质量成长指数前十大权重股分别为巨人网络、厦门钨 业、西部矿业、通富微电、天山铝业、湖南黄金、杰瑞股份、白银有色、睿创微纳、宏发股份，前十大 权重股合计占比25.23%。（以上所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况 不代表基金未来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化。市场 有风险，投资需谨慎） 500质量成长ETF(560500)，场外联接(联接A：007593；联接C：007594)。 风险提示："中证500质量成长指数(930939)由中证指数有限公司（"中证"）编制和计算 ...

Group 1 - Industrial metal prices continue to rise, with LME copper up by $182, reaching $13,176 per ton, LME aluminum up by $40 to $3,126 per ton, LME zinc up by $30 to $3,376 per ton, LME lead up by $10 to $1,970 per ton, LME nickel up by $259 to $17,349 per ton, and LME tin up by $2,380 to $49,098 per ton [1] - Zhongyou Securities indicates that copper prices are expected to rebound due to better downstream feedback and lower-than-expected production from overseas copper companies, alongside strong downstream stocking ahead of the holiday [1] - The aluminum market may face demand suppression due to high prices, with some aluminum processing companies planning extended holiday breaks, although there has been some improvement in downstream orders following price declines [1] Group 2 - The Zhongzhong Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) rose by 0.78%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Dongyangguang up by 3.93%, Xiyeshu up by 2.40%, Shenghe Resources up by 1.88%, Luoyang Molybdenum up by 1.74%, and Jiangxi Copper up by 1.53% [1] - The Penghua Industrial Nonferrous ETF closely tracks the Zhongzhong Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, which includes 30 large-cap companies involved in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare earth metals [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzhong Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index account for 55.71% of the index, including companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rise in non-ferrous metal stocks on February 10, with notable gains among several companies in the sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Nuclear International (02302.HK) experienced a surge of over 12.7% [1] - China General Nuclear Power Corporation Mining (01164.HK) increased by more than 7% [1] - Jiangxi Copper Company (00358.HK) and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) both rose nearly 4% [1] - China Nonferrous Mining (01258.HK) and Zijin Mining (02899.HK) each saw gains exceeding 2.5% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to have an oscillating rebound, while silver is predicted to decline from its high level [2][6]. - The decline of the US dollar supports the price of copper [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to trade within a range [2][13]. - Due to the losses in secondary lead production, attention should be paid to the lower support levels of lead [2][16]. - Tin is undergoing technical correction [2][19]. - It is recommended to hold a light position in aluminum before the holiday; alumina is expected to rebound from the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Platinum is in an oscillating consolidation phase, and palladium is trading within a box range [2][26][27]. - Nickel is affected by the exit of funds before the holiday, and the medium - term contradiction lies in Indonesia; in February, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in stainless steel, and the cost support center is moving up [2][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of gold and silver showed significant increases. For example, the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 3.29%, and that of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 10.24%. The trading volumes of both decreased compared to the previous day [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of gold and silver in Shanghai and Comex decreased to varying degrees. For example, the inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 31,354 kg [5]. - **News**: Before the release of the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning", indicating that employment growth may be lower than expected [5]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Copper and London Copper increased. The daily increase of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 1.74%. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper decreased, while that of London Copper also decreased [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 3,044 tons, and that of London Copper increased by 1,025 tons [10]. - **News**: The Fed may not quickly shrink its balance sheet; Alphabet raised 20 billion US dollars through US dollar bonds and planned to issue 100 - year sterling bonds; the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association considered including "copper concentrate" in the national reserve; Glencore suspended major investment in a Canadian smelter; Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 decreased by 14% year - on - year; Capstone Copper will resume full - scale production at a copper - gold mine in Chile [10][12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Zinc and London Zinc increased. The daily increase of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 0.47%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc decreased, while that of London Zinc increased [13]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased by 176 tons, and that of London Zinc decreased by 675 tons [13]. - **News**: The Fed may not quickly shrink its balance sheet; before the release of the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning" about lower - than - expected employment growth [14]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Lead and London Lead increased. The daily increase of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 0.45%. The trading volumes of both decreased [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead increased by 4,968 tons, and that of London Lead decreased by 100 tons [16]. - **News**: The Fed may not quickly shrink its balance sheet; Alphabet raised 20 billion US dollars through US dollar bonds and planned to issue 100 - year sterling bonds [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Tin and London Tin increased significantly. The daily increase of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 6.61%. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin decreased, and that of London Tin also decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of Shanghai Tin and London Tin decreased. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 379 tons, and that of London Tin decreased by 55 tons [20]. - **News**: The decline of US Treasury bonds widened; the memory price soared by up to 90% compared to Q4 2025; Tesla's Tao Lin said there is no specific date for FSD to be launched in China; Wang Yi will attend the first senior officials' meeting of APEC in 2026 [20][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different degrees of change. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased. The trading volumes of aluminum and alumina decreased, while that of cast aluminum alloy increased [23]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the inventories of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also changed [23]. - **News**: The Fed may reach an agreement with the US Treasury to clarify the balance sheet scale and adjust the bond - holding structure; the market expects the US core CPI to rebound in January [24]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of platinum and palladium increased. The daily increase of platinum futures 2606 was 7.72%, and that of palladium futures 2606 was 6.74%. The trading volumes of both decreased [26]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of NYMEX platinum decreased, and the inventory of NYMEX palladium remained unchanged [26]. - **News**: US ships are advised to stay away from Iranian waters; the White House's Hasset predicted a decline in employment; the US Commerce Secretary was involved in a scandal; the EU proposed to include third - country ports in the sanctions against Russia; the UK government's communication director resigned; Alphabet planned to raise about 15 billion US dollars through bond issuance; OpenAI's Altman said ChatGPT's monthly growth rate exceeded 10% [29]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel increased. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased by 2,680, and that of the stainless steel main contract increased by 65. The trading volumes of both decreased [30]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses; China implemented export license management for some steel products; the Indonesian government planned to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore; the planned nickel ore production in Indonesia in 2026 was significantly reduced; some Indonesian mines faced potential fines for illegal land use; the Indonesian government would adjust the nickel production quota according to industry demand; a nickel - carrying ship sank; the Indonesian government approved the mining work plan and budget for 2026; a Swiss company planned to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala; a Chinese company in Indonesia failed to submit an investment report [30][31][33].

Group 1 - The overall equity market experienced adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.27% to 4065.58 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 2.11% to 13906.73 points [8][10] - The convertible bond market showed weak fluctuations, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 0.05% and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index decreasing by 0.36% [15][16] - The bond market saw most yields rise, with the 1-year government bond yield increasing by 2.08 basis points, while the 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year yields decreased [18][19] Group 2 - The commodity futures market weakened overall, with significant declines in silver prices, which dropped by 9.06%, while gold prices increased by 1.65% [9][28] - The market for agricultural products showed mixed results, with CBOT soybeans rising by 4.75% and corn increasing by 0.58% [9][10] - The overall commodity index experienced a decline of 4.49%, with precious metals leading the drop at 17.11% [27][30]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing structural differentiation among major industries, with institutional funds showing stability in high-dividend sectors while retail investors follow suit [1][13]. Fund Performance - The China Securities Dividend Quality ETF (159209) saw a net inflow of 35.72 million yuan on February 9, with a total net inflow of 465 million yuan year-to-date, reaching a new high of over 1.2 billion yuan [1]. - The latest dividend yield of the China Securities Dividend Quality Index is 3.79%, compared to 2.31% for the CSI 300 Index and 1.81% for the ten-year government bond yield [7]. Market Outlook - Short-term market conditions are expected to remain structurally active with index fluctuations, while mid-term strategies will focus on high-dividend sectors that are undervalued, stable in earnings, and have high dividend certainty [1][16]. - The market style is anticipated to shift from "high elasticity trading" to "certainty allocation" as policies for growth stabilization and consumption promotion are gradually realized [16]. Index Characteristics - The China Securities Dividend Quality Index (932315) is an innovative index that combines dividend and quality factors, covering 50 stocks with stable dividends and strong earnings sustainability [1]. - Unlike traditional dividend indices that are heavily concentrated in financial and energy sectors, the dividend quality strategy includes leading companies in consumer, pharmaceutical, and high-end manufacturing sectors, enhancing portfolio resilience [1]. Industry Distribution - As of January 31, 2026, the industry distribution of the China Securities Dividend Quality Index is more balanced, with no single industry exceeding 20% and excluding bank stocks, focusing instead on stable and growth-oriented sectors [9][10].