智通财经APP注意到，周四，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格从历史高点回落，跌幅一度达 2%，跌 至 13,033 美元/吨。此前，基本金属和贵金属在 2026 年初的几周内均大幅飙升。 据英伟达官网去年刊登的一份技术论文指出，一个容量在一吉瓦的传统数据中心机架，需要高达50万吨 铜母线，这引起外界对未来铜的供需形势大为担忧。 不过，近期有细心的观察者发现，该论文的结论存在明显的计算错误，实际上一吉瓦数据中心仅需要 200多吨铜，差不多相当于50万磅，可能是该论文用错了单位。 而英伟达目前已经修正了这一错误，将论文中的50万吨修改为200,000千克，即200吨。这意味着此前外 界一些关于数据中心将导致铜陷入严重短缺的预期过于激进。 分析师还指出，中国 2025 年第四季度的铜需求增长低于预期，且受电动汽车销量疲软影响，存在进一 步下行风险；同时，高企的价格可能会促使电动汽车电池制造领域在生产中将铜替换为铝。 高盛表示，特朗普政府决定暂缓对关键矿产进口征收关税，转而关注直接谈判和价格下限，这也可能导 致美国铜溢价下降，尽管约 1.3 万美元的高价可能会在整个第一季度维持，因为"围绕美国精炼铜关税 的不确定性 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on January 16, with active sectors including power grid equipment, semiconductors, and storage chips, while precious metals fell and industrial metals retreated during the session [1] - The gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.55%, with holdings like Hunan Silver rising over 5%, while companies such as Mingpai Jewelry hit the limit down, and West Gold and others saw significant declines [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) fell by 0.6%, with leading stocks like Xiamen Tungsten and Jiangxi Copper showing gains, while companies like Yahua Group and Tianqi Lithium faced notable losses [1] Group 2 - As of January 15, the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) attracted significant inflows of 2.961 billion yuan over the past five days, while the gold stock ETF (159562) saw a net inflow of 234 million yuan over three consecutive days [1] - Analyst Zhang Jiqiang from Huatai Securities noted that the recent rise in resource prices is driven by multiple factors, including global monetary easing, expectations of improved fundamentals, and increased demand for copper, silver, and rare metals due to AI data center construction [1] - Long-term macroeconomic logic for non-ferrous metals remains intact, with a strategic approach to accumulate during adjustments [1] Group 3 - According to CICC, the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to enter a bull market by 2026, driven by a resonance of monetary, demand, and supply factors, with copper, aluminum, and tin expected to perform well [2] - Copper is referred to as the "oil of the electrification era," benefiting from multiple drivers such as new energy, AI computing power, and grid upgrades [2] - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) tracks a detailed non-ferrous index covering core products like gold, copper, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, aligning with the trends of new energy transition and high-end manufacturing [2]

| 互联网服务 | -2.43 | -118.62亿元 | 国网信通 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 软件开发 | -1.73 | -74.62亿元 | 科大讯飞 | | 文化传媒 | -4.15 | -58.23亿元 | 万润科技 | | 有色金属 | -0.12 | -31.96亿元 | 白银有色 | | 通信设备 | -0.09 | -31.90亿元 | 天孚通信 | | 航天航空 | -0.73 | -30.45亿元 | 博云新材 | | 能源金属 | -2.77 | -22.79亿元 | 格林美 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信服务 | -1.98 | -20.59亿元 | 线上线下 | | 电池 | -0.28 | -20.53亿元 | 恩捷股份 | | 游戏 | -2.84 | -20.12亿元 | 名臣健康 | | *数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议 | | | | 据交易所数据显示，截至1月16日午后一小时，大盘主力资金净流出329.15亿元。主力资金流出前十大板块分别为：互联网服务（-118.62亿元）、 软件开发 （-74.62亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, with notable amounts leaving the market, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1][2][3] Group 1: Major Stocks with Capital Outflows - The stock with the highest capital outflow is TBEA Co., Ltd. (特变电工), experiencing a net outflow of 2.529 billion yuan, with a decline of 0.35% [2] - BlueFocus Communication Group Co., Ltd. (蓝色光标) follows with a capital outflow of 1.766 billion yuan and a drop of 8.09% [2] - Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. (紫金矿业) saw an outflow of 1.559 billion yuan, with a decrease of 2.07% [2] - China Satellite Communications Co., Ltd. (中国卫星) had a capital outflow of 1.472 billion yuan, down by 3.47% [2] - Yangtze Power Co., Ltd. (长江电力) experienced a 1.27% decline with an outflow of 1.254 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The electric power sector, represented by Yangtze Power, shows a capital outflow of 1.254 billion yuan, indicating potential concerns within the industry [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum Corporation (中国铝业), is also facing significant outflows, with 1.559 billion yuan and 1.127 billion yuan respectively [2][3] - The internet services sector, represented by companies such as Huasheng Tiancheng (华胜天成) and Kunlun Wanwei (昆仑万维), shows substantial declines of 9.17% and 9.93% respectively, with outflows of 0.991 billion yuan and 0.983 billion yuan [2][3] Group 3: Additional Notable Stocks - Other companies with significant capital outflows include: - Ningde Times (宁德时代) with an outflow of 0.920 billion yuan and a decline of 0.45% [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创) with an outflow of 0.871 billion yuan and a decrease of 1.11% [2] - Han's Laser Technology Industry Group Co., Ltd. (汉得信息) with a capital outflow of 0.757 billion yuan and a drop of 10.9% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Chujiang New Materials experienced a stock price increase of 5.11%, reaching 14.60 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.303 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 5.67%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 23.695 billion CNY [1] - Chujiang New Materials, established on December 21, 2005, and listed on September 21, 2007, is located in Wuhu City, Anhui Province. The company specializes in the research, processing, and sales of non-ferrous metal (copper metal) materials, thermal equipment for new materials, and the production of high-performance carbon fiber composite prefabricated components [1] - The main revenue composition of Chujiang New Materials includes copper-based materials at 96.79%, high-end equipment and carbon fiber composite materials at 2.09%, and steel-based materials at 1.12% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders of Chujiang New Materials, E Fund's defense and military mixed fund A (001475) reduced its holdings by 10.4366 million shares in the third quarter, now holding 12.7166 million shares, which accounts for 0.79% of the circulating shares. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 9.0288 million CNY [2] - E Fund's defense and military mixed fund A (001475) was established on June 19, 2015, with a latest scale of 8.183 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 10.17%, ranking 894 out of 8847 in its category; the one-year return is 44.31%, ranking 2712 out of 8094; and since inception, the return is 85.3% [2]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Resources (01205) experienced a significant stock price increase following the announcement of a major transaction involving the sale of American Aluminum shares, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company's strategic moves [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - CITIC Resources resumed trading with a peak increase of over 21%, ultimately closing up 9.76% at HKD 0.45, with a trading volume of HKD 11.2468 million [1] Group 2: Transaction Details - The company announced the sale of 3.8166 million American Aluminum shares, equivalent to approximately 1.45% of the total issued shares, at an average price of USD 64.75 per share, resulting in a total transaction value of approximately USD 247 million [1] - The cumulative proceeds from the sold American Aluminum Depositary Receipts amounted to approximately USD 74.64 million [1] Group 3: Use of Proceeds - The company plans to utilize the proceeds from the sale for general working capital and as a reserve for potential future investments [1]

Report Summary 1) Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents an overview of recent events and market conditions across multiple industries, including production, service, upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors. It also includes price and data updates for various commodities and industries, indicating market trends such as price fluctuations and changes in production and consumption indicators. 3) Summary by Directory A. Macro - Events - **Production Industry**: China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation held its 2026 annual work conference, emphasizing the implementation of major aerospace projects, industrial transformation, and the development of strategic and future industries [1] - **Service Industry**: In 2025, the annual social financing scale increment was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year. The central bank decided to cut re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points from January 19, 2026 [2] B. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices continued to decline, while egg, zinc, and nickel prices rose [3] - **Mid - stream**: PX had a high operating rate, while polyester and PTA had low operating rates. Power plant coal consumption was at a low level [4] - **Downstream**: Second and third - tier city commercial housing sales increased, and the number of domestic flights rose [5] C. Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On January 14, the spot price of eggs increased by 9.45% year - on - year, and the spot price of palm oil increased by 2.09% year - on - year [37] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The spot price of zinc increased by 0.92% year - on - year, while the spot price of nickel decreased by 1.76% year - on - year on January 14 [37] - **Energy**: The spot price of WTI crude oil increased by 6.65% year - on - year, and the spot price of Brent crude oil increased by 7.86% year - on - year on January 14 [37] - **Chemical Industry**: The spot price of polyethylene increased by 3.04% year - on - year, and the spot price of urea increased by 1.01% year - on - year on January 14 [37] - **Real Estate**: The building materials composite index increased by 0.11% year - on - year on January 14, while the national concrete price index decreased by 0.01% year - on - year [37]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The central bank has rolled out a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, focusing on private SMEs and technological innovation. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, with favorable conditions for further loosening of monetary policy [2][3]. 3. Key Points by Category Central Bank Policies - The central bank has lowered the rediscount and relending rates by 0.25 percentage points. It has increased the relending quota for agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, set up a 1 - trillion - yuan relending quota for private enterprises, and increased the quota for technological innovation and transformation relending by 400 billion yuan. It has also expanded the scope of the carbon emission reduction support tool and reduced the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% [2]. - Central bank deputy governor Zou Lan stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Conditions for further loosening monetary policy are relatively sufficient, and loose monetary policy is needed to support positive fiscal policies, consumption boost, and investment stabilization [3]. Stock Market Performance On January 15, 2026 - A - share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, and the total trading volume of the two markets was 2,905.496 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,035.893 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The ChiNext Index rose 0.56%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.46% [4]. - Internationally, South Korean, Dutch, and US stocks led the gains, while the Hang Seng Tech Index, Saudi All - Share Index, and Nikkei 225 led the losses. European major stock indices also showed mixed performance [4]. - The 10 - year China Treasury bond yield was 1.8483%, with a change of - 0.14BP. The average daily prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 were 1.4154% and 1.5497% respectively [4]. - In terms of sectors, electronics, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while the comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media sectors led the losses [4]. On January 8, 2026 - The Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly by 0.07%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.51%. The total trading volume of the two markets was 2,800.265 billion yuan, a decrease of 538.76 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The ChiNext Index fell 0.82%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.82% [7]. - US stocks showed mixed performance, and European stocks also had mixed results. The Nikkei 225, Dutch AEX, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index had relatively large declines [8]. - The 10 - year China Treasury bond yield was 1.8828%, with a change of - 1.6BP. The average daily prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 were 1.3424% and 1.5261% respectively [9]. - In terms of sectors, national defense and military industry, media, building decoration, and real estate led the gains, while non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, communications, and banks led the losses [10]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 1.848, with a change of - 0.14BP. DR007 was 1.502, with a change of - 6.44BP. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.9631, with a change of - 0.12%. The US dollar index was 99.34, with a change of 0.27% [20]. A - Share Market Overview - The total A - share market capitalization was 114.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.62 trillion yuan compared to the beginning of the year. The cumulative trading volume this year was 28.53 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 31,698.37 billion yuan. The PE(TTM) was 23.34x, and the PB(MRQ) was 6.23x. The margin trading balance decreased by 24,885.74 billion yuan compared to a month ago, and the short - selling balance decreased by 170.96 billion yuan [24]. - Different A - share indices had different performance, with details on their closing prices, trading volumes, daily and weekly changes, and the number of rising and falling stocks [24]. - The latest trading volume was 29,385 billion yuan, and the latest turnover rate was 4.98%. The margin trading balance was 26,806 billion yuan as of January 14, 2026 [25][26]. Industry Performance - The top three sectors in terms of daily increase were electronics, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals. The top three sectors in terms of daily net capital inflow were electronics, banks, and basic chemicals. The top three sectors in terms of late - session net capital inflow were electronics, machinery, and national defense and military industry [28][30]. - The top three themes in terms of daily increase were advanced packaging, cobalt mines, and lithography machines [30].

有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业双周报（2026/01/02-2026/01/15） 供需向好叠加宏观情绪转暖，有色金属集体上涨 2026 年 1 月 16 日 投资要点： 分析师：许正堃 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523120001 行情回顾。截至2026年1月15日，申万有色金属行业近两周上涨13.03%，跑赢 沪深300指数10.40个百分点，在申万31个行业中排名第3名。截至2026年1月 15日，近两周有色金属行业子板块中，小金属板块上涨16.67%，贵金属板块 上涨16.53%，工业金属板块上涨12.56%，能源金属板块上涨10.97%，金属新 材料板块上涨8.10%。 周 报 有色金属行业重要新闻及观点 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险、行业下游需求不及预期风险、原材料价格波 动风险、在建项目进程不及预期、美联储再度施行紧缩性货币政策、行业内 部竞争加剧等风险。 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgz ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant upward trend in the prices of base metals, particularly aluminum and copper, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain security concerns, leading to a structural reshaping of the global base metal market [1] - The recent performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) shows a 0.05% increase, marking a six-day consecutive rise, with a turnover of 5.58% and a transaction volume of 1.811 billion yuan [1] - The demand for copper and aluminum is strongly driven by the acceleration of energy transition and the growth of green industries such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power [1] Group 2 - The Kamoa-Kakula copper smelting plant has successfully produced its first batch of anode copper, marking the start of its capacity ramp-up phase, with full production expected by the end of 2026 [1] - The project is anticipated to produce between 380,000 to 420,000 tons of copper concentrate in 2026, with a midpoint of 400,000 tons, which will contribute significantly to global copper supply [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF closely tracks the CSI Zhongshan Non-ferrous Metal Index, which includes 50 listed companies in the non-ferrous metal and non-metal materials sectors [2]