Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant upward trend in the prices of base metals, particularly aluminum and copper, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain security concerns, leading to a structural reshaping of the global base metal market [1] - The recent performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) shows a 0.05% increase, marking a six-day consecutive rise, with a turnover of 5.58% and a transaction volume of 1.811 billion yuan [1] - The demand for copper and aluminum is strongly driven by the acceleration of energy transition and the growth of green industries such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power [1] Group 2 - The Kamoa-Kakula copper smelting plant has successfully produced its first batch of anode copper, marking the start of its capacity ramp-up phase, with full production expected by the end of 2026 [1] - The project is anticipated to produce between 380,000 to 420,000 tons of copper concentrate in 2026, with a midpoint of 400,000 tons, which will contribute significantly to global copper supply [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF closely tracks the CSI Zhongshan Non-ferrous Metal Index, which includes 50 listed companies in the non-ferrous metal and non-metal materials sectors [2]

| 社会服务 | | | | 外服控股 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | -1.80 | 730.52 | -22.40 | 海格通信 | -10.02 | | 计算机 | -2.17 | 1417.00 | -18.96 | 美登科技 | -13.09 | | 传媒 | -4.92 | 618.29 | -30.43 | 流金科技 | -12.71 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:27） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 1.46 | 940.14 | -14.07 | 锌业股份 | 8.70 | | 电子 | 1.39 | 2624.60 | 39.58 | 派瑞股份 | 15.14 | | 建筑装饰 | 1.37 | 281.62 | 31.22 | 中国电建 | 10.07 | | 电力设备 | 1.30 | 1709.83 | 13.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of main funds from various stocks, highlighting potential concerns in specific sectors and companies [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Outflows - TBEA Co., Ltd. experienced a fund outflow of 1.85 billion yuan with a decline of 0.42% in stock price [2] - BlueFocus Communication Group saw a substantial outflow of 1.749 billion yuan, with a sharp drop of 8.85% [2] - China Satellite Communications faced a fund outflow of 1.345 billion yuan and a decrease of 1.71% [2] - Kunlun Wanwei reported an outflow of 894 million yuan and a decline of 8.6% [2] - Huasheng Tiancheng had a fund outflow of 775 million yuan, with a stock price drop of 7.08% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The electric power sector, represented by Changjiang Electric Power, saw an outflow of 729 million yuan and a minor decline of 0.89% [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, experienced an outflow of 643 million yuan with a decrease of 0.78% [2] - The software development sector, represented by companies like Weining Health and Yonyou Network, faced outflows of 591 million yuan and 590 million yuan respectively, with declines of 12.55% and 6.4% [2][3] - The communication equipment sector, including companies like Shenglu Communication and Fenghuo Communication, saw outflows of 589 million yuan and 580 million yuan respectively, with declines of 7.98% and 6.27% [3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - In December 2025, China's exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, surpassing the previous growth of 5.9% and market expectations of 3.1%. Imports rose by 5.7%, up from 1.9% previously, exceeding the expected 0.9% [2] - The trade surplus reached $114.138 billion, compared to $111.676 billion previously, marking the third-highest level in history [2] - The export structure is improving, with significant contributions from high-tech and integrated circuit products, which accounted for over 6 percentage points of overall export growth [2] - The outlook for early 2026 suggests continued strong export performance due to favorable external conditions, including US-China trade relations and increased AI investment [3] Group 2: A-Share Market Investment Strategy - The A-share market is expected to undergo a phase of consolidation, with a narrowing range of active themes as the market adjusts after significant gains [4][5] - The central economic work conference has set a tone for capital market development, indicating a gradual expansion of public equity fund sizes and a balanced investment environment [5] - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics, driven by ongoing AI capital expansion and domestic technology substitution [6] Group 3: Computer Industry Research - The computer industry saw a 13.38% increase in the Shenwan Computer sector from January 8 to January 14, 2026, with all sub-sectors experiencing growth [7] - The upcoming release of the DeepSeek V4 model is anticipated to accelerate the penetration of AI applications, with significant improvements in AI computing capabilities expected from new chip platforms [8][11] - The integration of AI technology into manufacturing is being promoted by government policies, which may enhance the application of AI across various industrial sectors [11]

编者按 2026 年是 " 十五五 " 开局之年，市场正在寻找新的方向。 面对宏观环境的变化、产业格局的调整，投资者需要穿透短期波动，看清中长期的主线。这不容易，但 值得尝试。 为此，中信保诚基金推出 "2026 ，预见 " 系列，围绕宏观、固收、固收 + 、权益、商品、红利、周期、科 技八个领域，分享我们的研究和思考。 我们不预测市场，而是梳理逻辑；不给出答案，而是提供视角。希望这些内容能帮助您在做投资决策 时，多一份参考。 本系列共八篇，将陆续发布。感谢您的关注。 当市场在2025年反复争论"通缩"与"通胀"之时，一股更具决定性的力量，正在中国庞大的制造业体系中 悄然蓄势。它不是来自短期的需求脉冲，而是源于一场深刻的"反内卷"。 过去，周期股的宿命是随宏观潮汐剧烈起伏，同质化竞争下难逃"涨看盈利、跌看估值"的循环。然而， 中信保诚基金认为，2026年的周期投资叙事或正迎来根本性转折：政策驱动的"反内卷"与全球产业链的 重塑，正合力将一批中国制造业龙头，从残酷的"价格接受者"推升至具有定价话语权的"价值制定者"。 投资的核心命题，从"寻找β"变为"识别α" ——即在供给结构优化的浪潮中，精准锁定那些盈利能力 ...

北京时间1月16日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货价格区间震荡，开盘报3166美元/吨，现报3155美元/ 吨，跌幅0.52%，盘中最高触及3174美元/吨，最低下探3153.5美元/吨。 【铝市场消息速递】 更新时间： LME铝期货行情回顾： 1月15日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铝 3187.0 3187.0 3136.0 3171.5 -0.56% 本周，几内亚低品位铝土矿录得一笔新成交，船期为1月，CIF成交价60美元/干吨，矿石品位参照 42.5/2.5标准定价。 1月15日，上期所铝期货仓单138083吨，环比上个交易日增加4518吨。 1月15日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铝注册仓单446575吨。注销仓单43425吨，减少2000吨。铝库存 490000吨，减少2000吨。 ...

Core Insights - The industrial metal sector is showing relative strength, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) rising by 0.97% and achieving a six-day winning streak, accumulating a year-to-date increase of 14.23% [1][2] - The non-ferrous metal ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 16 days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 2.703 billion and a total of 9.4 billion in inflows [1] - The ETF's net asset value has increased by 144.82% over the past two years, ranking 56th out of 2,510 index stock funds, placing it in the top 2.23% [1] Fund Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF has a maximum monthly return of 27.00% since its inception, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being six months and the highest cumulative gain during that period being 69.57% [1] - The average return during the months of increase is 9.76% [1] Sector Composition - The non-ferrous metal ETF closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Non-Ferrous Metal Theme Index, focusing on metals such as gold, copper, aluminum, rare earths, tungsten, lithium, and cobalt, with respective weights of 33.8%, 15.7%, 11.9%, 8.9%, and 6.8% [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 52.98% of the total, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others [2] Stock Performance - Key stocks within the ETF include Zijin Mining (-0.18%), Northern Rare Earth (+1.98%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (+2.83%), among others, with varying weightings in the index [3]

Core Insights - In 2025, Guangxi's foreign trade showed strong resilience, with a total import and export value of 819.26 billion yuan, marking an 8.4% year-on-year growth, surpassing both scale and growth rate of 8% for the first time [1] - Guangxi ranked 13th nationally and 2nd in the western region for foreign trade scale, with a growth rate exceeding the national average by 4.6 percentage points, placing it 11th nationally and 7th in the western region [1] Group 1: Trade with ASEAN - In 2025, Guangxi's trade with ASEAN reached 429.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, accounting for nearly half of Guangxi's total foreign trade [2] - ASEAN has maintained its position as Guangxi's largest trading partner for 26 consecutive years, with trade with Vietnam exceeding 300 billion yuan for the first time, growing by 5.4% [2] - Trade with Indonesia, Singapore, and Myanmar saw growth rates exceeding 40% [2] Group 2: Market Diversification - Guangxi has successfully diversified its markets, with exports to Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and the EU reaching 121.95 billion yuan, 51.1 billion yuan, 47.12 billion yuan, and 28.15 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 27.4%, 21.6%, 15.8%, and 46.3% [2] - The number of trading entities with import and export records reached 6,155, an increase of 550 from the previous year, indicating enhanced vitality in foreign trade [2] Group 3: Role of Enterprises - Private enterprises played a crucial role in foreign trade, with imports and exports totaling 563.45 billion yuan, a 4.7% increase, accounting for nearly 70% of Guangxi's foreign trade [2] - State-owned and foreign enterprises also contributed significantly, with imports and exports of 151.91 billion yuan and 74.62 billion yuan respectively, growing by 22.7% and 23.6% [2] Group 4: Industrial Growth - Guangxi's industrial economy has steadily grown, supporting high-quality foreign trade development, with exports of electronic information products reaching 89.34 billion yuan, a 36.9% increase [3] - Exports of automotive parts and lithium batteries were 31.11 billion yuan and 25.38 billion yuan, growing by 24.6% and 60.7% respectively [3] - Imports of major commodities, driven by key industries such as non-ferrous metals and steel, totaled 194.16 billion yuan, a 9% increase, accounting for nearly 60% of Guangxi's total imports [3]

Summary of the Conference Call on Tin Metal Industry Industry Overview - The tin metal industry is experiencing a short-term increase in export orders due to demand from end-use sectors like batteries and photovoltaic (PV) industries, with an expected increase of approximately 2,000 tons in the first quarter [1][3] - The current spot market for tin is weak, with reduced purchasing willingness from downstream buyers, as evidenced by the deep water quotation for Yunzi brand at around 700 RMB per ton and overseas inventory at approximately 6,000 tons, indicating low trading activity [1][6][7] Key Points on Supply and Demand - In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate in the tin market is low, with an average annual increase of about 1%. Emerging technologies such as AI are expected to create new demand growth points, making the supply-demand fundamentals similar to those of the copper market [1][4] - China accounts for about 25% of global tin production and reserves, primarily concentrated in Yunnan, Guangxi, and Inner Mongolia. The Alpha Mining area in Africa is expected to become a significant growth region, although geopolitical risks remain a key concern [1][4] Notable Companies and Investment Opportunities - Key companies to watch in the tin sector include: - Xiyu Co., with a self-owned production capacity of 323,000 tons and plans to add 6,000 tons [1][5] - Zinc smelting companies, currently with a capacity of 9,000 tons and plans to add nearly 20,000 tons by 2028 [1][5] - Huaxi Nonferrous, which is expected to benefit from price increases [1][5] Supply Chain Dynamics - Myanmar's tin production is currently hindered by issues related to explosive approvals, but is expected to recover to a monthly production level of 1,500 tons by late January [1][8] - Indonesia's RKB mine is projected to produce 60,000 tons this year, which is neutral for the market [1][8] - The Alpha Mining area in Africa is expected to recover to an annual production level of 20,000 tons by 2027, while South America, particularly Peru, is maintaining stable production with a slight overall increase expected [1][9][10] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The main reasons for the expected rise in tin prices in 2026 include supply disruptions and the impact of export tax rebate policies, particularly in the photovoltaic and battery sectors [2][21] - The first quarter is typically a low-demand season, but the second quarter may see a demand increase if Christmas orders recover and export tariffs ease. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 280,000 to 350,000 RMB, with significant volatility in the first quarter [2][21][22] Inventory and Downstream Activity - Current LME inventory is close to 6,000 tons, with domestic warehouse inventory exceeding 9,000 tons, indicating a historical high [1][16] - Downstream activity has been low due to high prices, with only a slight recovery in orders noted in December. The upcoming New Year and Spring Festival may lead to some replenishment, but overall downstream conditions remain precarious [1][16] Future Outlook - The global photovoltaic production is expected to reach around 600 GW by 2027, with China's output projected between 200-250 GW. This indicates a slight decline compared to previous years, although potential policy changes could provide new growth opportunities [1][17] - The tin plating industry is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2026, but export levels may face challenges in 2027 due to potential declines in overseas demand [1][18] Conclusion - The tin market is characterized by a complex interplay of supply constraints, emerging demand from new technologies, and geopolitical risks. Key players in the industry are positioned to benefit from price increases, but caution is advised due to potential volatility and market dynamics.

格隆汇1月16日｜A股市场有色金属股继续走强，其中，入选了格隆汇2026年"下注中国"十大核心资产 名单的洛阳钼业(603993.SH)盘中涨超4%报25.09元，再创历史新高。该股在2025年累涨210%后，今年 在截至今日的10个交易日内再度累涨超25%。 洛阳钼业昨晚发布公告，预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为200亿元到208亿元，同比增 加47.80%到53.71%。预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为204亿元到 212亿元，同比增加55.50%到61.60%。公司2025年业绩同比大幅上升的原因系公司主要产品量价齐升、 运营成本有效管控。 ...