晨报 工业硅 工业硅：处于产能出清阶段，硅价加速探底 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 整理 逻辑：上周工业硅市场继续下跌，部分牌号现货价格有近 250 元/吨降幅。 目前华东通氧 553#硅在 9300-9500 元/吨，华东 421#硅在 10100-10300 元/吨。 期货端：五一节前最后一个交易日，资金避险减仓明显，期货主力合约 si2506 收盘价为 8540，-1.21%，主力单日减仓 28618 手，当前持仓为 16.65 万手。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供给端：本周新疆大厂有继续减产计划，据悉目前在开矿热炉 22 台，减产 后 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations to provide investment suggestions and price trend outlooks for each sector [2][4][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.85%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.3 billion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. There were positive macro news such as the increase in the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the "May Day" holiday. It is suggested to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may return to fundamentals. With the weakening of manufacturing PMI in April, economic growth in the second quarter may be under pressure. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity remains supportive, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate downward in the long - run after short - term fluctuations [6] - **Precious Metals**: Although the prices of gold and silver were weak during the "May Day" holiday, the medium - term driving factors for the rise in gold prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and wait to buy on dips after the correction. For silver, it is suggested to wait and see for now [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: During the "May Day" holiday, LME copper stocks decreased, and domestic refined copper production is expected to increase slightly in May. If the Sino - US trade situation eases, copper prices may continue to rise, but there are also pressures such as inflation expectations and weakening supply - demand relationships [11] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded during the holiday. If Sino - US relations improve, aluminum prices may rebound further, but the weakening domestic manufacturing industry poses a challenge to the demand for aluminum [12] - **Zinc**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and there is a risk of a decline in zinc prices due to the expected increase in social inventory and weakening downstream demand [13] - **Lead**: The lead market shows that lead ore inventory is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and move in a box - shaped range in the medium - term [14][15] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. With weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in intermediate product production in May, it is recommended to short nickel on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease in the future. With the impact of tariffs on demand, the price of tin may decline [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations, cost valuation decline, and the market may further test the industry's price acceptance [18] - **Alumina**: The supply surplus situation persists, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of raw materials is high, and supply is expected to tighten. The market for 304 stainless steel is expected to gradually improve [21] 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weakening trend. The overall supply - demand structure of steel has no obvious contradictions, but the market is affected by overseas exports and production restriction rumors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [23][24] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main contract is likely to be weak [25][26] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass is expected to be weak, and the supply of soda ash is at a high level. Although there is some support from demand, the medium - term supply is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [28][29] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is not recommended to buy on dips [34][35] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose slightly during the holiday. There are different views on the market, with bulls focusing on potential production cuts and bears on weak demand. It is recommended to take a moderately bullish short - term approach [37][39] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's production increase has been realized. It is recommended to take profits on short positions on dips and consider short - term long positions in the positive spread [40] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41] - **Urea**: The market has high supply and low demand. If export restrictions are relaxed, it may boost the market. It is recommended to hold long positions for those who have already entered the market at low prices and wait for a better entry opportunity for new investors [42] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in the price of pure benzene and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [43][45] - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. Although inventory is decreasing, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, but the expected inventory reduction has not been realized. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [47] - **PTA**: The supply of PTA is still in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. However, the short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies following the trend of crude oil [48] - **Para - Xylene**: PX is also in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. The short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies with the trend of crude oil [49] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of PE may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price is expected to fluctuate [50] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The cost of PP has some support, and the price is expected to be slightly bearish in May [51] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly during the holiday. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term market sentiment and wait and see in the short - term [54] - **Eggs**: The egg price was stable during the holiday, but it is expected to be weak in May. It is recommended to short on rallies [55] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of domestic soybean meal is expected to decline in the future due to sufficient supply, while the price of US soybeans has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading rhythm [56][58] - **Oils and Fats**: The price of palm oil is under pressure due to production increase and other factors. The demand for US soybean oil may be boosted. The price of oils and fats is expected to decline, but there is a possibility of support in the medium - term if the macro - economy stabilizes [59][61] - **Sugar**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, and the price may decline. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a risk of decline in the future [62][64] - **Cotton**: Affected by tariffs and the end of the consumption peak season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes [65][66]

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 基本面弱势，现货博弈加剧 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 西北某大厂表示后期有减产意愿，但具体减产时间不确定。随 丰水期到来，四川在五一节之后部分硅厂有复工计划。需求端 仍无起色，有机硅大厂检修、多晶硅大厂延迟复产，对工业硅 需求减少。多晶硅厂家近期对工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9400- 9700 元/吨。后续关注供给端边际变化。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 硅料现货成交有限，预计大量成交将待五一之后。考虑龙头企 业西南基地复产推迟及部分企业有减产检修计划，我们下修 5 月多晶硅排产至 9.9 万吨左右，环比 4 月有所减少。根据 SMM，截至 4 月 30 日，中国多晶硅厂库存 26.1 万吨，环比 +0.2 万吨。下游原材料库存约 11 万吨，下降至 1 个月水平左 右，并在硅片厂中呈不均匀分布，部分企业无太多囤货有刚需 采购需求，部分企业硅料库存仍较为充足、策略仍以消化在手 库存为主。上下游博弈剧烈，买方基于需求转弱、下游价格下 跌，心理预期价格较低，而卖方考虑下游部分刚需采购、且从 上市公司披露的一季报情况看，即使是 Q1 价格也已致使头部 硅料企业亏损大量现金流，因此买 ...

| 然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 寇帝斯 Z0021810 | 2025年4月30日 | | | | | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品中 | 4月29日 | 4月28日 | 演讲 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14550 | 14550 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -85 | -180 | વેર | 52.78% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14200 | 14300 | -100 | -0.70% | | | 非标价差 | -435 | -430 | G5 | -1.16% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 52.30 | 52.05 | 0.25 | 0.48% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 58.25 | 58.00 | 0.25 | 0.43% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12800 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with the March JOLTS job openings hitting a six - month low, and the upcoming Q1 GDP initial value may disappoint. The policies of the Trump administration and the tariff war are negatively affecting the labor market [7]. - For the container shipping index (European line), the near - term is under pressure. It is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread position lightly, and reduce positions for near - month single - side trading before the holiday [8][9]. - Industrial silicon has a weak fundamental pattern. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies and be cautious when holding positions before the holiday [10]. - For live pigs, the inventory accumulation drive is weakening, and a phased inventory reduction may start, with short - term reverse spread opportunities [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - reading Highlights from the Director - **US Labor Market**: The US March JOLTS job openings were 7.192 million, far lower than the expected 7.5 million. The data has been on a downward trend since 2022, and recent policies have further impacted the labor market. The upcoming Q1 GDP initial value may be disappointing [7]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The near - term is under pressure. In early May, the loading rate was lower than expected, and the market freight rate has dropped. The 10 - 12 reverse spread can be held through the holiday, and near - month single - side trading should reduce positions before the holiday [8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The fundamentals are weak. The industry inventory is high, supply is increasing while demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies and be cautious before the holiday [10]. - **Live Pigs**: The inventory accumulation drive is weakening. With the increase in temperature, a phased inventory reduction may start in May, and there are short - term reverse spread opportunities [11][12]. 3.2 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows risk preference recovery, and silver rebounds steadily. Gold has a trend strength of 0, and silver also has a trend strength of 0 [18][21]. - **Copper**: Inventory continues to decrease, supporting the price. The trend strength is 0 [23][25]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum fluctuates strongly, while alumina drops significantly. Both have a trend strength of 0 [26][28]. - **Zinc**: It has a strong current situation but weak expectations, and will trade sideways in the short term. The trend strength is 0 [29][30]. - **Lead**: Demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. The trend strength is - 1 [32][33]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The upside and downside space of nickel converges, and the price may trade in a narrow range. Stainless steel has a cost - feedback game on the disk. Both have a trend strength of 0 [35][38]. - **Tin**: It shows a slight recovery. The trend strength is 0 [39][42]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a weakly oscillating disk, and polysilicon has a slight increase in registered warehouse receipts. Both have a trend strength of - 1 [43][46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and the disk is under pressure. The trend strength is 0 [47][50]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and it trades in a wide range. The trend strength is 0 [51][52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Demand expectations are poor, and prices fluctuate at a low level. Both have a trend strength of 0 [55][58]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Silicon ferroalloy oscillates at a low level due to black - sector resonance, and manganese ferroalloy oscillates at a low level due to ore - end information disturbances. Both have a trend strength of 0 [59][62]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are disturbed by production - limit news and trade in a wide range. Both have a trend strength of 0 [63][65]. - **Steam Coal**: The rigid demand has limited impact, and it trades weakly with oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [66][68]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [69]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene has a collapsing cost and expanding processing margin. PTA recommends a month - spread reverse spread, and MEG suggests a long - PTA short - MEG strategy [72][73].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows "weak reality and weak expectation" with weak consumption, high inventory pressure, and the spot market may continue weak shock in the short term [2][3] - The polysilicon market has weakening demand, high inventory, slow de - stocking, and the 2506 contract is cautiously bullish in the short term, with upstream enterprises considering selling hedging on rallies [7][8] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On April 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The main contract 2506 opened at 8780 yuan/ton and closed at 8800 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2505 main contract was 188,093 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 69,417 lots, a decrease of 85 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon continued to decline. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9400 - 9700 (- 50) yuan/ton. Although some silicon plants reduced production or had maintenance due to losses, the expected production capacity in the southwest region during the wet season would gradually be released, and the supply pressure was not significantly relieved [1][2] - **Demand Side**: The demand was weak. The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon maintained low operating rates, and downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing. The organic silicon DMC quotation was 11000 - 11800 (- 200) yuan/ton, and the overall operating rate of monomer enterprises was expected to decline [1][2] Strategy The industry's consumption is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. The spot market lacks positive drivers in the short term and may continue to oscillate weakly [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On April 28, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures fell sharply, opening at 38,390 yuan/ton and closing at 37,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.05% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 55,092 lots, and the trading volume was 80,862 lots [5] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 25.90 (a month - on - month change of 3.19%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.53GW (a month - on - month change of 7.19%). The weekly polysilicon output was 22,800 tons (a month - on - month change of 2.24%), and the silicon wafer output was 13.38GW (a month - on - month change of - 1.40%) [5][6] Strategy - In the short term, the 2506 contract is cautiously bullish. Upstream enterprises should consider selling hedging on rallies if there is a significant rebound. - For options, consider buying a small amount of out - of - the - money call options [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The current supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is difficult to resolve. As the southwest production area is about to enter the flat and wet seasons in June, the cost support will weaken, and the silicon price will continue to be weak [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - On the previous day, the industrial silicon market price was weakly stable. The supply side remained stable for the time being, and some manufacturers intended to cut production. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 10,200 - 10,600 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract Si2506 of industrial silicon futures was 8,800, down 0.73%, with a reduction of 5,009 lots. The current position was 188,100 lots, and the trading volume was 7.78 billion yuan [1]. Supply Side - Some manufacturers intended to conduct maintenance, and the overall supply might decline. The industrial silicon operation in Gansu production area was relatively stable. The price of 97 silicon had fallen below 9,000 yuan/ton, and the operation rate was at a low level. The current quotation of medium - frequency furnace 3303 silicon was 10,100 - 10,200 yuan/ton, and some medium - frequency furnaces were waiting and watching, with difficult short - term improvement in operation [1]. Demand Side - The price of polysilicon declined. Under the retreat of demand, components started to compete at low prices for shipment, intensifying the negative feedback in the industrial chain. The price pressure in each link was gradually transmitted upwards. Under the pressure of lower - than - expected demand and high inventory, the silicon material production cut increased, and the quotation was also lowered. The current quotation of re - feeding material was 36 - 38 yuan/kg, that of dense material was 34 - 37 yuan/kg, that of cauliflower material was 31 - 33 yuan/kg, and that of N - type material was 39 - 41 yuan/kg. The price of organic silicon DMC showed a fluctuating trend, with the market's mainstream opening price referring to 11,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Near the holiday, the rigid demand procurement of downstream enterprises was gradually released, the market inquiry activity increased, and the spot transaction showed a warming trend compared with the previous period. However, industry players were not very optimistic about the future market, and it was expected that the organic silicon market would remain weakly stable in the short term. The price of aluminum alloy ingots was weak. The spot market still showed a situation of weak supply and demand, the downstream demand was difficult to improve, both buyers and sellers were mainly waiting and watching cautiously, and the trading volume was low [1]. Inventory - On April 28, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 69,417 lots, with a single - day decrease of 85 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory was still at a high level [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, short - term observation is recommended as there is a possibility of correction in the short - to - medium term, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game [4]. - For copper, prices are expected to remain high before May Day due to short - term tariff alleviation, strong pre - holiday consumption, and supply - side speculation. After May Day, the impact on consumption should be monitored [10]. - For alumina, prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [18]. - For electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [21]. - For zinc, prices may rebound due to low social inventory, but the fundamentals are under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [26]. - For lead, prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro factors and import profitability [31]. - For nickel, prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and a mid - term strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [36]. - For stainless steel, prices may fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [43]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [47]. - For polysilicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - term positive arbitrage should take profit and exit [49]. - For lithium carbonate, a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [54]. - For tin, prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term, and risk prevention is necessary [58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - On Friday, precious metals gave back the previous day's gains. London gold closed down 0.9% at $3318.62 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.53% at $33.1 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined [2]. Important Information - Trump made statements about tariff negotiations, and the US 4 - month inflation expectations and consumer confidence index were released. The probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates was also given [2]. Logic Analysis - Trump's attitude softening boosted market risk appetite, but after China's clarification, the market entered a wait - and - see state. Precious metals may correct in the short - to - medium term [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily observe. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [5]. Copper Market Review - LME copper closed at $9375 on Friday, up $15 or 0.16%. LME and COMEX inventories increased [7]. Important Information - Trump made statements about trade agreements, and major copper producers' production and sales expectations were reported [8]. Logic Analysis - Macro: Trump's trade agreement plan. Supply: Concentrate processing fees are falling, and smelter losses may increase. Demand: Downstream consumption has decreased, but pre - holiday stocking demand has increased [10]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will remain high before May Day. After May Day, short - selling opportunities can be considered if consumption is affected. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [10][11]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures contract of alumina 2505 fell by 8 yuan/ton to 2823 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - There were issues with the Guinean shipping terminal, and the market supply was in a state of increase and decrease alternation. The relationship between price and production capacity was also analyzed [14]. Logic Analysis - After price declines and increased losses, production capacity adjustments occurred. Short - term supply - demand surplus was alleviated, and the market focused on the ore end [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [18]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai aluminum 2506 rose by 15 yuan/ton to 19970 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [19]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and Trump's tariff statements were reported, and aluminum ingot inventories decreased [19][20]. Logic Analysis - Tariff issues are in negotiation. Fundamentally, the weighted开工率 of aluminum processing is stable, and the import of aluminum ingots may limit price increases. The annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [21]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff and domestic demand policies. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [21]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 2.22% to $2645.5/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2506 fell 0.86% to 22550 yuan/ton. Spot trading was light [23]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting, industrial enterprise profit data, and LME's plan for a low - carbon metal premium mechanism were reported [24][25]. Logic Analysis - In May, domestic zinc concentrate supply will be relatively loose, and refined zinc production will remain high. Consumption is expected to decline after the peak season [25]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices may rebound due to low inventory, but short - selling on rallies can be considered. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [26]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.84% to $1945/ton, and Shanghai lead 2506 fell 0.94% to 16855 yuan/ton. Spot trading showed different performances in different regions [28]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and the approval of nuclear power projects were reported [31]. Logic Analysis - Domestic secondary lead smelting may cut production due to losses. Prices may be strong, but attention should be paid to import profitability [31]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro and import factors. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [31]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell to $15490/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot premiums and prices showed different trends [33]. Important Information - The production capacity and project responses of some nickel - related companies were reported, and Vale's nickel production increased [33][35]. Logic Analysis - Macro sentiment affects short - term prices. In May, the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased, but the full price remained firm. Supply is high, and demand may decline [36]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds in the mid - term. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel SS2506 fell to 12685 yuan/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot prices were reported [38][39]. Important Information - Steel Union's inventory statistics were reported [39]. Logic Analysis - Cost - driven price increases may end, and demand is unclear. Short - term prices follow nickel and macro factors, and may decline in the medium term [42]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Observe [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon fell 0.85% to 8780 yuan/ton, and spot prices continued to decline [45]. Important Information - An organic silicon factory planned to carry out maintenance [45]. Comprehensive Analysis - DMC prices are falling, and monomer enterprise maintenance is increasing. Demand is weak, and supply may increase. The price is in a negative cycle [46]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rallies. - Options: Observe. - Arbitrage: Participate in reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [47]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon fell 1.84% to 38390 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [49]. Important Information - National energy data showed an increase in photovoltaic installation [49]. Comprehensive Analysis - Component, silicon wafer, and battery prices are falling, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The futures market has strong multi - empty games, and prices are expected to decline [49]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe in the short term and pay attention to manufacturers' production of delivery products after the holiday. - Options: None. - Arbitrage: Take profit and exit the long PS2506 and short PS2511 arbitrage [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract of lithium carbonate fell to 68180 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [53]. Important Information - The progress of the automobile circulation reform and Tesla's situation in India were reported [53]. Logic Analysis - Production decreased last week, but inventory increased slightly, indicating weak demand. After May, supply may increase, and prices may be under pressure [53]. Pre - holiday Positioning Suggestion - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Hold put ratio options [54]. Tin Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai tin 2505 fell 0.3% to 262025 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased. Trading was light [56]. Important Information - Trump's trade agreement statements and Tin Industry Co.'s quarterly report were reported [57]. Logic Analysis - Trump's trade negotiation plan may cause market fluctuations. The short - term supply of tin ore is tight, but the annual supply - demand tension is relieved [58]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term and pay attention to risks. - Options: Observe [58][60].

4 月 25 日，中国有色金属工业协会党委常委、副会长兼秘书长段德炳一行调研兰州东金 硅业有限公司和埃肯硅材料（兰州）有限公司。 段德炳会长一行听取了两家企业发展历程和生产经营情况的汇报，并着重了解企业对于产 业"十五五"发展重点方向的意见和建议。段德炳会长指出，当前工业硅行业形势严峻，市场 竞争激烈，诸多挑战接踵而至，企业要继续在技术创新、成本控制等方面下功夫，提升核心 竞争力。同时强调，协会将一如既往地支持企业发展，通过搭建交流合作平台、完善行业标 准及配套政策、提供政策解读与市场信息等服务，助力企业实现高质量可持续发展。 中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长兼规划研究室主任、硅业分会常务副会长林如海，稀有稀 土部、政策研究室、硅业分会相关负责人参加调研。 图：段德炳会长一行调研兰州东金硅业有限公司 硅业分会会长 段德炳 010-63971958 硅业分会常务副会长 林如海 010-62229972 硅业分会副会长兼秘书长 徐爱华 13910097318 硅业分会常务副秘书长 马海天 13683629409 硅业分会副秘书长 刘 晶 18811526675 硅业分会干事 张 博 15587104501 李 敏 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options** - **Stock Index Futures**: The intraday view is a sideways - up trend with IM being relatively strong, and the medium - term view is a build - up for an upward movement. The core logic includes the government's determination to stabilize the capital market and the focus on technology - related industries [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The intraday view is a narrow - range sideways movement with caution on long - bond corrections, and the medium - term view is a high - level sideways movement. The core logic involves the adjustment of policy emphasis and the movement of interest rates [2][4]. - **Commodity Futures and Options** - **Copper**: The intraday view is a price range between 76,500 and 78,200, and the medium - term view is a range between 66,000 and 90,000. The market is supported by supply - demand tightness but suppressed by the dollar's rebound [5][6][7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The intraday view is a weakening trend in the range of 8,700 - 8,900, and the medium - term view is a downward - pressured movement in the range of 8,500 - 9,300 due to supply surplus [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The intraday view is a weakening trend in the range of 38,000 - 38,500, and the medium - term view is a low - level movement in the range of 35,000 - 40,000 because of supply surplus [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The intraday view is a weakening trend in the range of 67,800 - 68,300, and the medium - term view is a movement around the production cost in the range of 65,000 - 75,000, affected by low spot prices, high supply, and high inventory [12][13]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures** - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold IM2505 long positions, buy 1 lot of MO2506 - C - 5900 call options and sell 2 lots of MO2506 - P - 5200 put options [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Close out long positions of T2506 and TL2506 trading accounts [2]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Copper** - **Supply**: Codelco's Q1 output was 296,000 tons, up 0.3% year - on - year, aiming for 1.37 - 1.4 billion tons this year. Luoyang Molybdenum's Q1 output was 170,600 tons, up 15.65% year - on - year [5]. - **Demand**: In March, auto production and sales increased significantly, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also had high growth rates. The Q1 power grid investment was 95.6 billion yuan, up 24.8% year - on - year [5]. - **Inventory**: On April 25, LME copper inventory increased by 25 tons, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts and inventory decreased [6]. - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a sideways trading approach [7]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Supply**: In March, China's industrial silicon output was 342,200 tons, down 6.57% year - on - year [9]. - **Demand**: In March, China's polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, down 43.8% year - on - year [9]. - **Inventory**: As of April 18, the social inventory was 611,000 tons, still at a high level [9]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the short position of SI2506 - C - 11000 and short the futures [9]. - **Polysilicon** - **Supply**: In March, China's polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, down 43.8% year - on - year [10]. - **Demand**: In March, China's silicon wafer output was 50.76GW, down 30.44% year - on - year [11]. - **Inventory**: As of April 20, the social inventory was 251,000 tons, indicating obvious supply surplus [11]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the short position of PS2506 - C - 47000 [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Spot Price**: On April 25, the price of 99.5% battery - grade domestic lithium carbonate dropped to 69,700 yuan/ton, hitting a more than 4 - year low [13]. - **Supply**: In March 2025, the production capacity was 7,285 tons, up 93% year - on - year. In February 2025, battery - grade and industrial - grade production also increased [13]. - **Inventory**: As of March 31, the total inventory was 90,070 tons, at a high level within the year [13]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the short position of LC2507 - C - 83000 [12].