证 券 研 究 报 告 南向通扩容：投资新机遇 ——2025年下半年中资境外债展望 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 张晋源 A0230525040001 2025.06.09 ◼ 引言：债券"南向通"自2021年9月24日实施，期间主要参与者仍较为单一，政策后续或拓宽，险资等非银机构或能通过此类渠道来实现对境 外债的新增配置，点心债及中资美元债为主要扩容方向；展望下半年：1）点心债走势或持续偏强，超额利差将继续收窄，关注政府债配置机会； 2）中资美元债短期行情偏震荡，短期参与需偏谨慎，适度配置部分短久期债券。 ◼ 当前债券"南向通"的额度使用及投资者参与情况： 1） 2022年美元加息周期以来，境外债券超额收益优势体现，上清所托管"南向通"债券 规模持续上行，目前处于历史高点（2025年4月超5300余亿）；2）当前南向通合资格投资者（除QDII&RQDII外）仅41家银行交易商。 ◼ 近期债券"南向通"政策有边际扩容迹象，保险等非银机构后续或被纳入： ✓ 2025年1月以来，香港金融管理局与中国人民银行多次发声，明确"后续将扩大合资格境内投资者范围"； ✓ 部分险资机构已公告通过债券"南向 ...

债市延续暖势，收益率曲线陡峭化下移 ——利率债周报（2025.6.2-2025.6.8） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市延续暖势，收益率曲线陡峭化下移。上周（6 月 2 日当 周）海外关税政策不确定性延续，为债市提供支撑。同时，尽 管大量同业存单陆续到期，但央行首次提前公告买断式逆回购 操作，加之首次披露月度各项工具流动性投放情况，释放加强 预期管理信号，市场资金宽松预期进一步强化，对债市产生利 多影响。在此背景下，上周长债收益率整体下行。短端利率方 面，月初资金面均衡偏松，带动债市短端利率下行，且下行幅 度大于长端，收益率曲线趋于陡峭化。 本周（6 月 9 日当周）债市料延续偏强震荡。从基本面来看， 本周将陆续公布5月通胀、贸易以及金融数据。其中，5月CPI 和 PPI 同比仍处负值区间，反应居民消费信心不足，内需整体 疲弱，同时，受海外关税政策反复影响，外需整体走弱， 5 月 出口增速有所放缓，基本面对债市影响将偏利多。从资金面来 看，尽管本周逆回购与存单到期规模较大，但央行提前开展 1 万亿买断式逆回购操作予以对冲，释放"呵护"信号，资金面 有望 ...

Core Viewpoint - The yield on India's 10-year government bonds has increased by 5 basis points to 6.34% [1] Group 1 - The rise in yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards government securities [1] - The increase in yield may reflect broader economic conditions and expectations regarding inflation and interest rates [1]

| | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/09 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/06/06 | 4.508 | 4.643 | 3.244 | 2.573 | 3.500 | 3.151 | 0.327 | 3.269 | | 最新变化 | 0.115 | 0.028 | -0.007 | -0.006 | -0.025 | -0.006 | 0.056 | -0.028 | | 一周变化 | 0.088 | -0.004 | 0.068 | 0.067 | 0.012 | 0.042 | 0.000 | 0.039 | | 一月变化 | 0.128 | 0.099 | 0.006 | 0.041 | -0.082 | -0.023 | 0.074 | -0.063 | | 一年变化 ...

最近一周，2年期、5年期、10年期、30年期国债期货震荡偏强，周涨幅分别为0.05%、0.11%、0.18%、 0.31%。目前债市演绎震荡行情，背后是多空博弈相对均衡的结果，经济基本面波浪式修复，宽松的资 金面也对市场产生支撑，这意味着利率上行有顶，而存单提价现象的存在，又约束了利率下行的空间。 从经济基本面来看，5月官方制造业PMI为49.5%，环比上升0.5个百分点，出口回暖带动PMI边际改善。 财新制造业PMI录得48.3%，环比下降2.1个百分点，近8个月来首次落于荣枯线下，其中生产指数和新 订单指数创下2022年12月以来新低。官方PMI与财新PMI的"劈叉"，本质上是"政策驱动的大企业复 苏"与"市场主导的中小企业困局"的缩影，映射了中小企业在外需波动和内需不足下的生存压力，以及 大企业对短期外需改善的响应。总之，中美关税降级可能继续对二季度制造业景气度形成支撑，但中长 期外需不确定性扰动犹存。 在全球经济复苏步伐放缓、地缘政治和贸易政策不确定性加剧的背景下，多国央行纷纷出手，释放出货 币宽松信号。6月5日，中国央行宣布开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作，打破了央行通常在月末公布操作 的惯例，也释放出 ...

文章指出，目前美国国债、股票、现金和公司债券的收益率都趋于相似，这种情况在过去40年中极为罕 见。这意味着，要么风险资产的回报低于正常水平，要么安全资产实际上没那么安全，或者两者兼而有 之。 近日，华尔街日报发表的一篇题为《当所有资产收益趋同时该如何投资（How to Invest When Everything Yields the Same）》的文章指出，当前美国市场出现了"收益趋同"的现象。 这意味着股票几乎没有提供所谓的"安全边际"，投资者对股票高估值的信心完全寄托于未来的盈利增长 预期——华尔街甚至预测未来两年标普500的盈利增长将超过13%，几乎是长期平均水平的两倍，远高 于今年9%的预测增长率。 这可能意味着，一旦盈利增长不如预期，股票的高估值将成为一个巨大的风险点。 文章分析认为，造成这一现象的原因主要有两个：通货膨胀和企业利润。 一方面，美联储对2022年通胀激增的反应使得现金和美债收益率回到了2008年之前的"正常"水平；另一 方面，标普500的高估值和高利润率压低了股票的收益回报率，同时企业强劲的资产负债表也减少了公 司债券的额外收益需求。 这种收益率趋同的现象给投资者带来了前所未有的困 ...

日本投资者4月减持德国主权债规模创十年最高水平 金十数据6月9日讯， 日本周一公布的最新国际收支数据显示，日本投资者4月份减持的德国主权债规模 创下十年来最高水平。4月总计净卖出1.48万亿日元，为2014年以来最大单月减持规模。日本资金净卖 出了1.07万亿日元美国主权债，创去年10月以来最大减持。 ...

Group 1: AI and Innovative Drug Sectors Performance - The A-share AI sector and Hong Kong innovative drug sector experienced significant gains during the first week of June, with several stocks like Zai Lab rising over 25% and others like CSPC Pharmaceutical and Innovent Biologics increasing over 10% [2][3] - Over 1,000 non-cash ETFs saw gains, with AI-themed ETFs from Huabao, Southern, Guotai, and Huaxia rising over 6% [2] - The recent concerns regarding AI computing power investment excess have eased, leading to a potential recovery in overall industry valuation levels [2] Group 2: Bond ETF Growth - As of June 6, the total scale of 29 bond ETFs surpassed 300 billion yuan, with an increase of over 130 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [6][7] - The development of bond ETFs has accelerated significantly, with the first bond ETF launched in March 2013 and the total scale reaching 1 trillion yuan in May 2024, 2 trillion yuan in February 2025, and now 3 trillion yuan [7] - The shift towards beta return management due to decreasing alpha returns has made bond index funds and passive investment products increasingly important [7][8] Group 3: Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - The 信创 (Xinchuang) theme ETFs attracted significant capital inflows, with a total net inflow of over 4.5 billion yuan last week, driven by the suspension of major weighted stocks [4][5] - Conversely, the recently surging Hong Kong medical-themed ETFs experienced notable capital outflows, with over 600 million yuan net outflow last week [5] - The market dynamics indicate a high trading congestion level in the innovative drug sector, which may lead to increased volatility [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of June 8, 2025, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, secondary spreads, trading volume, and turnover rate. It also presents the issuance plans for the second quarter of 2025 and the allocation of raised funds for new special bonds [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 10.96 billion yuan, with a net financing of 5.05 billion yuan. The issuance of new general bonds was 0.87 billion yuan, new special bonds 0.73 billion yuan, refinancing general bonds 6.01 billion yuan, and refinancing special bonds 3.35 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 10.78 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 4.3 billion yuan [1][3]. - **Issuance Terms**: This week, the 7 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (37%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above bonds was 57%, a decrease from last week. The issuance proportion of 15 - year bonds decreased significantly, by about 15 percentage points [1]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: This week, special refinancing bonds issued a total of 2.77 billion yuan. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing implicit debts, totaling 168.35 billion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Shandong, Sichuan, and Hubei plan to issue 25.11 billion yuan, 10.6 billion yuan, 9.84 billion yuan, and 8.08 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spreads**: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds was 10.1bp, wider than last week. The 30 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 21.4bp. Except for the 7 - year, 15 - year, and 30 - year bonds, the spreads of other terms widened [1]. - **Allocation of Raised Funds**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of raised funds for new special bonds in 2025 are cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (32%), transportation infrastructure (21%), social undertakings (12%), and affordable housing projects (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 7.7% compared to 2024 [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 36 regions have disclosed the local government bond issuance plan for the second quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance scale in April and May, the total planned issuance for the second quarter is 2.35 trillion yuan, with 880.6 billion yuan planned for June. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the second quarter is 1286.8 billion yuan and 1066.5 billion yuan respectively [3]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the 15 - year and 30 - year local government bonds had advantageous secondary spreads, with the 1 - year bonds having a relatively large widening amplitude. The 15 - year and 30 - year secondary spreads were 21.5bp and 20.6bp respectively. From the historical quantile of the past three years, the 30 - year secondary spread was at a high quantile of 90%. Regionally, local government bonds over 20 - year in all types of regions had higher secondary spreads, and 10 - 15 - year bonds in medium - level regions also had relatively higher spreads [4][5]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased. Sichuan, Shandong, and Shanxi had higher turnover rates. The trading volume this week was 355.4 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.70%. The trading volumes of Sichuan, Shandong, and Guangdong were 39.1 billion yuan, 37.3 billion yuan, and 28 billion yuan respectively, and the turnover rates of Sichuan, Shandong, and Shanxi were all higher than 1.1% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market fluctuated upward this week, with major broad - based indices and convertible bond indices showing a mild recovery. The market's main line is still unclear, and it is waiting for incremental information. The convertible bond market resonated with the equity market, with increased trading activity and a continued differentiation in the valuation structure. The focus of capital allocation has shifted from extreme elasticity to high certainty, and a "stable allocation + selective elasticity" dual - wheel drive strategy is maintained. In the bond market, the pressure of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit in the next three weeks is still large, and the pressure on cross - quarter liquidity cannot be ignored. It is difficult to see a smooth decline in interest rates in June [1][2]. - In the equity market, under the dual background of the adjustment of the public fund assessment mechanism and the phased easing of Sino - US tariffs, the main line is still unclear, and the style is differentiated. The dividend style has attracted wide attention, and the growth style is gradually recovering. The market value structure is biased towards small - cap growth. In terms of strategy, it is necessary to optimize strategies by combining new productive forces, institutional dividends, and the dynamic evolution of the valuation system. In terms of allocation, attention should be paid to the dividend, technology growth, and large - consumption sectors [8]. - For the convertible bond market, it is recommended to use a framework of "neutral position, bond selection as the foundation". The dumbbell strategy will still be dominant. In terms of allocation, focus on three directions: concentrating positions on high - rating, low - premium blue - chip convertible bonds; selecting medium - and high - priced thematic growth bonds; and conducting refined management in combination with clause events and credit marginal changes [2][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Observation - In the past week (from June 2nd to June 6th), major broad - based indices and convertible bond indices fluctuated upward, but the market style was still differentiated. The convertible bond information technology index, AA - and below index, convertible bond high - price index, and small - cap convertible bond index led the gains. In the bond market, the pressure of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit in the next three weeks is large, and it is difficult to see a smooth decline in interest rates in June [7]. - In the equity market, the main line is unclear, and the style is differentiated. The dividend style is popular, and the growth style is recovering. The market value structure is biased towards small - cap growth. Attention should be paid to the dividend, technology growth, and large - consumption sectors [8]. - The convertible bond market resonated with the equity market, showing a mild recovery, with increased trading activity and a continued differentiation in the valuation structure. A "stable allocation + selective elasticity" strategy is maintained, and a "neutral position, bond selection as the foundation" framework is recommended [9]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 3.2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods, such as the one - week, two - week, 3 - month - since, one - month, two - month, half - year, and one - year changes of the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wind Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc. [10] 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Bonds - The report shows the top five and bottom five individual bonds in terms of weekly price changes and the top five and bottom five underlying stocks of individual bonds in terms of weekly price changes, but specific bond names are not provided [13][25] 3.2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - The report presents the valuation trends of bond - type, balanced, and equity - type convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds with par values in different ranges (90 - 100, 100 - 110, 110 - 120) [19][21][31] 3.2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - The report shows the trends of the proportion of high - price bonds, low - price bonds, the proportion of bonds falling below the bond floor, and the median price of the convertible bond market [29][33]