Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report comprehensively presents the performance of global asset markets on August 25, 2025, including the yields of 10 - year and 2 - year government bonds of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, stock indices of major economies, stock index futures trading data, government bond futures trading data, and money market conditions [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Government Bond Yields**: - **10 - year government bonds**: Yields and their changes (latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly) of 10 - year government bonds in major economies such as the US, UK, France, etc. are presented. For example, the US 10 - year government bond yield on August 25, 2025, was 4.276, with a latest change of 0.021, a weekly change of - 0.058, a monthly change of - 0.136, and a yearly change of 0.362 [2] - **2 - year government bonds**: Yields and their changes of 2 - year government bonds in major economies like the US, UK, Germany, etc. are provided. For instance, the US 2 - year government bond yield on August 25, 2025, was 3.790, with a latest change of 0.050, a weekly change of 0.050, a monthly change of 0.070, and a yearly change of - 0.140 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: - **US dollar against emerging - economy currencies**: Exchange rates and their percentage changes of the US dollar against currencies of emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, South Africa, etc. are shown. For example, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate on August 25, 2025, was 5.412, with a latest change of - 0.26%, a weekly change of - 0.45%, a monthly change of - 3.17%, and a yearly change of - 1.31% [2] - **Renminbi**: Exchange rates and their percentage changes of on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12 - month NDF are presented. For example, the on - shore RMB exchange rate on August 25, 2025, was 7.154, with a latest change of - 0.19%, a weekly change of - 0.44%, a monthly change of - 0.35%, and a yearly change of - 0.29% [2] - **Stock Indices**: - **Major economies**: Stock indices and their percentage changes of major economies such as the US (S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq), UK, France, etc. are given. For example, the S&P 500 index on August 25, 2025, was 6439.320, with a latest change of - 0.43%, a weekly change of - 0.15%, a monthly change of 0.78%, and a yearly change of 16.17% [2] - **Emerging economies**: Stock indices and their percentage changes of emerging economies such as Russia, Japan, Hong Kong, etc. are provided. For example, the Hang Seng Index on August 25, 2025, was 25829.910, with a latest change of 1.94%, a weekly change of 2.59%, a monthly change of 1.05%, and a yearly change of 50.97% [2] - **Credit Bond Indices**: - Yields and their percentage changes of investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices in the US, eurozone, and emerging economies are presented. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index on August 25, 2025, was 3463.860, with a latest change of - 0.08%, a weekly change of 0.37%, a monthly change of 1.36%, and a yearly change of 4.30% [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: Closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3883.56, with a percentage change of 1.51% [3] - **Valuation**: PE(TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are presented. For example, the PE(TTM) of CSI 300 was 13.97, with a环比 change of 0.00 [3] - **Risk Premium**: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX are given. For example, the 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 was - 0.62, with a环比 change of - 0.01 [3] - **Fund Flow**: Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are provided. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 177.24, and the 5 - day average value was - 340.99 [3] - **Trading Volume**: Latest values and环比 changes of trading volumes in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext are presented. For example, the latest trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 31411.37, with a环比 change of 5944.27 [3] - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: Basis and percentage basis of IF, IH, and IC are given. For example, the basis of IF was 5.38, with a percentage basis of 0.12% [3] Government Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and percentage changes of government bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 are provided. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.145, with a percentage change of 0.00% [4] - **Money Market**: - **Funding Rates**: R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes (in basis points) are presented. For example, R001 was 1.3901%, with a daily change of - 9.00 basis points [4] - **Big - Category Asset Morning Report**: Values and percentage changes of big - category assets on August 25, 2025, are provided. For example, the value was 1602.450, with a latest change of 0.31% [7]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that different stock markets do not move in unison, and understanding multiple markets can provide investors with more opportunities [2] - Global investment can significantly reduce volatility risk, and the article suggests a free course on investing in global stock markets through index funds [2][3] - The course includes notes and mind maps to help participants quickly grasp the concepts of global index investing [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of interest rate changes on asset prices, likening interest rates to gravity for assets [5] - A decrease in interest rates is beneficial for asset prices, particularly for bonds, and indirectly supports the stock market by increasing liquidity and lowering capital costs [6] - Non-dollar assets benefit more during a dollar interest rate cut cycle, as the dollar tends to depreciate against other currencies, which was evident during the last bull market in Hong Kong stocks from 2020 to 2021 [7] - Following the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September 2024, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced significant gains, marking the fastest rise in a decade [7][8] - While interest rate fluctuations can create short-term trading opportunities, their long-term impact on investment returns is less significant compared to the longer cycles of bull and bear markets [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant pressure due to rising long-term yields and the failure of traditional interest rate pricing frameworks, leading to a state where stock market performance heavily influences bond pricing [1][14][13]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since mid-July, the bond market has faced capital losses due to a substantial rise in long-term yields, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields increasing by 12 basis points and 25 basis points respectively from July 15 to August 22 [13][1]. - The stock market's extreme risk-reward ratio has maintained a rolling 3-month Calmar ratio above 4.0 since July, a level not seen during the previous year's "924" rally, putting additional pressure on the bond market [14][1]. - The bond market is currently in a pricing state dominated by risk appetite, leading to a "look at stocks, act on bonds" approach [1][14]. Group 2: Future Market Logic - Two potential scenarios for the stock market's future are identified: a rapid rise supported by the "93 consensus" or a period of volatility as investors take profits ahead of the September 3 military parade [17][2]. - If the rapid rise scenario occurs, the bond market may face further declines, with long-term rates potentially approaching March highs. Conversely, if the volatility scenario plays out, the bond market could see a recovery as yields decline [17][2]. Group 3: Institutional Behavior and Fund Flows - Institutional behavior indicates a potential for a more optimistic bond market outlook, with reduced net selling of bonds by funds from 358.7 billion yuan in late July to 202.8 billion yuan in mid-August [18][3]. - The bond market is seeing increased buying interest from institutions, including banks and brokerages, as they position for a potential market reversal [18][3]. Group 4: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals from the Jackson Hole meeting have shifted market expectations towards potential interest rate cuts, easing global monetary tightening pressures and opening up domestic monetary policy space for rate cuts and liquidity injections [22][3][23]. - The People's Bank of China has been active in maintaining liquidity through reverse repos and MLF operations, indicating a supportive stance for the bond market [4][23]. Group 5: Bond Market Strategy - Current strategies suggest a focus on a "barbell" approach in bond investments, with attention to long-term government bonds and a gradual rebuilding of duration positions as monetary policy space opens up [26][3]. - The average duration of bond funds has been adjusted downwards, indicating a shift in strategy as institutions respond to market conditions [50][3].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant downward pressure, with a notable increase in yields, while the stock market is thriving, leading to a shift in investor sentiment and capital allocation [1][2][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - On August 22, the issuance of 30-year special government bonds reached 83 billion yuan, with a bid rate of 2.15%, but the subscription multiple was only 2.89 times, indicating weak market demand [1]. - The bond market has seen a decline since early August, particularly affecting long-term bond funds, with some funds experiencing daily net value drops exceeding 0.5% [1][6]. - The issuance results of the 30-year bonds heightened market concerns, as the issuance rate exceeded the secondary market rate of 2.075%, reflecting a lack of demand even for highly secure assets [6][7]. Group 2: Stock Market Influence - The A-share market is witnessing unprecedented growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points, leading to a significant influx of capital into equities [1][2]. - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident, where a booming stock market results in a cooling bond market, as institutions prefer equities when expected returns are higher [2][4]. Group 3: Fund Performance - Different types of bond funds are showing varied performance; short-term bond funds remain stable, while ultra-long bond funds and interest rate bond funds have suffered significant losses [6][9]. - Mixed bond funds have performed well due to their limited equity exposure, effectively hedging against bond market declines [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond market's recovery may depend on the stock market's performance; if the A-share market remains strong, the bond market may continue to struggle [9][11]. - There is a potential for re-evaluation of bond investment opportunities as yields rise, with a key psychological threshold identified at a 1.80% yield for 10-year government bonds [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent introduction of taxes on bond interest and overseas investment income signals a shift in the government's approach to asset investment profits, indicating an expectation of increased returns from capital markets in the future [1][11]. Group 1: Taxation Changes - The government has announced the taxation of interest from national and local bonds, ending the era of tax exemption on bond interest [1]. - There are rumors of a 20% personal income tax on profits from overseas stock investments, indicating a broader trend of taxing asset investment profits [1]. - The anticipated revenue from bond interest taxation could reach 50 billion annually, suggesting a significant increase in the scale of national debt [2]. Group 2: National Debt and Economic Signals - The potential revenue from bond interest tax implies that the national debt could reach approximately 50 trillion, three times the current scale, which may lead to more aggressive monetary stimulus [2]. - The introduction of asset profit taxation reflects a transition into a new industrialization cycle, which is crucial for understanding investment and asset price dynamics [2][11]. Group 3: Industrialization Cycle - The industrialization cycle is divided into four stages: initial accumulation, growth, maturity, and post-industrialization [4][5]. - The current phase is characterized by a shift from industrial growth to maturity, where the financing ratio between industrial and financial sectors becomes more balanced [8]. - In the maturity phase, a developed financial market is essential for optimizing investments and providing individuals with opportunities for wealth accumulation [9][10]. Group 4: Future Investment Opportunities - As the financial market develops, personal income from capital investments is expected to rise, potentially equating to wage income [11]. - The recent surge in the stock market may not be an anomaly but could become a regular occurrence as the economy transitions [11]. - Investors are encouraged to adapt to the evolving industrial landscape and seek opportunities in the capital market while managing risks [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On August 21, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.329, 4.729, 3.461 respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes varied across countries. For example, the US had a latest change of 0.037, a weekly change of 0.043, a monthly change of - 0.069, and an annual change of 0.485 [3] - **2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On August 21, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.750, 3.966, 1.969 respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes also differed. For instance, the US had a latest change of - 0.020, a weekly change of 0.030, a monthly change of 0.030, and an annual change of - 0.300 [3] - **Exchange Rates of the US Dollar against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On August 21, 2025, the exchange rates against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, South African rand, etc. were 5.476, - (not available), 17.718 respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes showed different trends. For example, against the Brazilian real, the latest change was - 0.12%, the weekly change was 1.08%, the monthly change was - 0.81%, and the annual change was 0.37% [3] - **Stock Indices of Major Economies**: On August 21, 2025, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ, etc. had values of 6370.170, 44785.500, 21100.310 respectively. The latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes varied. For example, the Dow Jones had a latest change of - 0.40%, a weekly change of - 1.52%, a monthly change of 17.22%, and an annual change not fully shown [3] - **Credit Bond Indices**: The emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices, US investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices, and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices had different latest changes, weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.26%, a weekly change of - 0.27%, a monthly change of 1.00%, and an annual change of 3.91% [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The A - share, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 had closing prices of 3771.10, 4288.07, 2862.18, 2595.47, and 6704.17 respectively on the reporting date, with corresponding percentage changes in price [5] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 13.73, 11.71, 32.02, 27.00, and 20.07 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5] - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.63 and 2.23 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5] - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flow in A - shares, main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were presented. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 1351.53, and the 5 - day average was - 312.50 [5] - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - cap board, and ChiNext were given. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 24240.57, with a环比 change of 158.23 [5] - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis and percentage of basis for IF, IH, and IC were - 5.87 (- 0.14%), 3.22 (0.11%), and - 47.77 (- 0.71%) respectively [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.000, 105.500, 107.875, and 105.450 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes in price [6] - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M had values of 1.5143%, 1.5356%, and 1.5500% respectively, with daily changes in basis points [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant changes in the bond market, particularly the decline in government bond prices and the rise in yields, which may indicate a shift in market sentiment and expectations towards inflation rather than deflation [1][9][31]. Group 1: Bond Market Changes - Recently, government bonds have seen a widespread decline, with long-term bonds experiencing the most notable drops [1][2]. - The 30-year government bond futures dropped by 1.33%, marking the largest decline since March 17, and closed at a new low since March 24 [3][4]. - The yields on government bonds are rising, with the 30-year bond yield increasing by 6.10 basis points to 2.055%, returning above 2% for the first time in four months [10][11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article discusses the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields, where falling prices lead to rising yields, indicating a decrease in demand for bonds [12][13]. - The current bond market's unpopularity suggests a shift in investor sentiment, moving away from bonds towards equities, which is often seen as a normal reaction during bullish stock market conditions [15][18]. Group 3: Economic Expectations - The article posits that the recent bond market weakness is not solely due to the typical stock-bond relationship but is indicative of a broader change in market fundamentals [19][26]. - The transition from a deflationary trading environment to an inflationary one is highlighted, with the market's expectations shifting towards higher economic growth and inflation [31][34]. - Recent CPI data shows a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [36]. Group 4: External Influences - The article notes that external factors, such as increased foreign investment and supportive government policies, are contributing to the changing dynamics in the capital market [42][43]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to alleviate liquidity issues and support the transition from deflation to inflation trading [46]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the worst phase for the market has likely passed, and a prolonged recovery period is expected, with trading dynamics favoring inflationary strategies [48][49]. - The current high interest in the stock market and the declining bond market may become a new norm, suggesting significant potential for further stock market gains [50].

黄金方面： 隔夜黄金小周期趋势改变，黄金冲破关键压力位，未来有进一步走高的可能，从大周期来看，黄金仍是处于无趋势状态，短线 方向变化较快，投资者在仓位和风控上要有所调整。 据美国两党政策智库"负责任联邦预算委员会"（CRFB）最新预测，从2026财年到2035财年，美国的累计赤字将达到22.7万亿美 元，而国会预算办公室1月份的预测为21.8万亿美元。赤字扩大主要是因为减税法案和特朗普的关税政策，仅仅减税法案就可能 使得美国赤字增加4.6万亿美元。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，美国赤字扩大将直接导致美国债务扩大，特朗普在节流上的尝试已经宣告失败，开 源上也无太大起色，所以大概率会转化成债务，据估算，美国赤字在未来十年将稳步上升，到2035年将达到2.6万亿美元，占 GDP的5.9%。 技术面：黄金日线收小阳线，价格站上长期均线。1小时周期价格重新进入前期成交密集区，短线趋势改变，日内大概率震荡上 行，可关注下方3333美元一线的支撑。 原油方面： 隔夜油价小幅反弹，但整体走势仍难言乐观。隔夜美国EIA原油库存有喜有忧，库存出现近期最大幅度的下降，但后期对油价的 支撑作用可能有限，产量和出口量连续上升 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that while the economy is slowing down, it is not in a recession, providing opportunities for patient investors [4] - The S&P 500 is expected to reach 6500 points by 2026, and high-quality bonds will become more attractive due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The market may experience fluctuations due to tariffs and inflation, but overall asset performance remains lively [4] Group 2 - Emerging markets, particularly China, are expected to benefit from stable RMB expectations, technological innovation, and domestic demand, creating new opportunities for capital inflow [5] - Global market trends vary, with Europe and Japan showing moderate gains, while emerging markets experience short-term volatility; however, India and Taiwan are performing well, especially in AI-related industries [5] - Investment strategies should focus on "core" assets such as U.S. Treasuries, investment-grade bonds, and leading stocks, while caution is advised for high-yield bonds and commodities due to potential oversupply risks [5]

Group 1 - The capital market landscape in 2025 is shifting towards diversified asset allocation, moving away from single-asset strategies to include equities, fixed income, and physical assets [1] - Structural opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market are evident, with companies like (02195.HK/34lp9) achieving a 45% increase in the AI healthcare sector and (02195.HK/83nm1) benefiting from stable dividend yields above 5.2% due to renewable infrastructure policies [2] - The bond market is seeing green bonds represented by (02195.HK/46df2) with yields surpassing 6.5%, while convertible bonds like (02195.HK/29rg4) offer a balanced risk-reward profile [2] Group 2 - Gold is highlighted as a traditional safe-haven asset, showing unique value during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, with a combination of physical gold and (02195.HK/38ts6) gold ETFs meeting liquidity needs while avoiding transaction losses [2] - The investment strategy suggests dividing funds into core and satellite allocations, with core investments in (02195.HK/14kb9) bond funds and (02195.HK/77pd0) blue-chip stocks, while satellite investments include sector-specific targets like (02195.HK/22wf4) [3] - Risk management focuses on three dimensions: using (02195.HK/41qr9) cross-market ETFs to hedge currency risk, employing (02195.HK/58sj2) volatility index products for market risk management, and allocating (02195.HK/36xf8) gold options to address extreme events [3] Group 3 - The rise of smart investment advisory tools is changing allocation methods, with systems like (02195.HK/26vq7) dynamically adjusting stock-bond ratios based on economic indicators [4] - There is a caution against algorithmic homogenization risk, suggesting that maintaining a portion of actively managed products like (02195.HK/39zp0) can enhance portfolio differentiation [4]