Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, highlighting the balance in the funding environment and the performance of both the stock and bond markets, particularly in light of recent central bank actions and economic indicators. Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market experienced a slight increase, supported by a stable funding environment and a central bank announcement of a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, leading to a downward trend in interest rates [5][6]. - The central bank conducted a 242.2 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan, indicating a balanced funding situation [3][4]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The yield on long-term bonds has significantly decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to approximately 1.783% [5][6]. - The funding rates remained stable, with the overnight rate (DR001) slightly rising to around 1.39%, while the 7-day rate (DR007) fell by 15 basis points to approximately 1.44% [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for September met expectations, contributing to the slight rise in the stock market [5]. - The article notes a shift in market sentiment regarding government bonds, with a recent announcement from the Ministry of Finance affecting the pricing of long-term bonds [6].

Report Information - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Daily Report on Major Asset Classes [9] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on September 29, 2025: US 4.140%, UK 4.700%, France 3.531%, etc [3] - Latest Changes: US -0.036, UK -0.045, France -0.037, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: US -0.008, UK -0.012, France -0.028, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: US -0.090, UK -0.050, France -0.005, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: US 0.389, UK 0.778, France 0.594, etc [3] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on September 29, 2025: US 3.640%, UK 3.983%, Germany 2.020%, etc [3] - Latest Changes: US 0.070, UK -0.026, Germany -0.007, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: US 0.070, UK 0.008, Germany 0.006, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: US 0.120, UK 0.023, Germany 0.069, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: US 0.050, UK 0.071, Germany -0.126, etc [3] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Market Currencies - Rates on September 29, 2025: Brazil 5.322, South Africa ZAR 17.273, South Korean Won 1400.400, etc [3] - Latest Changes: Brazil -0.40%, South Africa ZAR -0.37%, South Korean Won -0.72%, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: Brazil -0.24%, South Africa ZAR -0.31%, South Korean Won 0.66%, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: Brazil -2.15%, South Africa ZAR -1.96%, South Korean Won 0.50%, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: Brazil -3.88%, South Africa ZAR -0.45%, South Korean Won 4.88%, etc [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - Values on September 29, 2025: S&P 500 6661.210, Dow Jones Industrial Average 46316.070, NASDAQ 22591.150, etc [3] - Latest Changes: S&P 500 0.26%, Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.15%, NASDAQ 0.48%, etc [3] - One-Week Changes: S&P 500 -0.49%, Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.14%, NASDAQ -0.87%, etc [3] - One-Month Changes: Mexico Index 6.36%, UK Index 1.13%, France CAC 2.24%, etc [3] - One-Year Changes: S&P 500 16.48%, Dow Jones Industrial Average 9.95%, NASDAQ 25.69%, etc [3] Credit Bond Indices - Values on September 29, 2025: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 3517.910, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 265.036, etc [3] - Latest Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.34%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.13%, etc [4] - One-Week Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.09%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.08%, etc [4] - One-Month Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 1.56%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 0.51%, etc [4] - One-Year Changes: US Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 3.50%, Eurozone Investment-Grade Credit Bond Index 3.93%, etc [4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing Prices: A-share 3862.53, CSI 300 4620.05, SSE 50 2973.04, etc [5] - Price Changes (%): A-share 0.90%, CSI 300 1.54%, SSE 50 1.09%, etc [5] Valuation - PE(TTM): CSI 300 14.19, SSE 50 11.73, CSI 500 34.92, etc [5] - Month-on-Month Changes: CSI 300 0.15, SSE 50 0.05, CSI 500 0.47, etc [5] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10-Year Interest Rate: S&P 500 -0.53, Germany DAX 2.40 [5] - Month-on-Month Changes: S&P 500 0.03, Germany DAX 0.04 [5] Fund Flows - Latest Values: A-share 836.51, Main Board 463.46, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Board - [5] - Average Values in the Past 5 Days: A-share -302.46, Main Board -264.41, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Board - [5] Trading Volume - Latest Values: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges 21614.61, CSI 300 6933.95, SSE 50 1899.69, etc [5] - Month-on-Month Changes: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges 145.76, CSI 300 946.71, SSE 50 397.81, etc [5] Main Contract Premiums or Discounts - Basis: IF -15.45, IH 2.96, IC -118.36 [5] - Premium or Discount Ratios: IF -0.33%, IH 0.10%, IC -1.61% [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices - T00 107.660, TF00 105.485, T01 107.325, TF01 105.360 [6] Price Changes (%) - T00 0.00%, TF00 0.00%, T01 0.00%, TF01 0.00% [6] Money Market - Capital Interest Rates: R001 1.3776%, R007 1.8694%, SHIBOR-3M 1.5800% [6] - Daily Changes (BP): R001 -17.00, R007 32.00, SHIBOR-3M 0.00 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility last week, closing lower amid mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate expectations, with the S&P 500 index down 0.31% and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.65% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding high stock valuations were interpreted as a warning against current market overheating, putting pressure on liquidity-dependent tech stocks [1] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for August rose 0.2% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations and alleviating some market sentiment on Friday [1] - Despite high valuations, the market remains optimistic about potential interest rate cuts in October and December, suggesting continued expectations for accommodative policies from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: QDII Fund Dynamics - The overall premium level of QDII funds slightly rebounded last week, particularly notable in U.S. broad-based funds, which averaged a 1.68% increase, indicating renewed investor interest in these assets [1] - Several QDII funds, especially those focused on U.S. stocks, have seen adjustments in daily subscription limits, which may impact investor strategies and market liquidity [2] - The performance of various QDII funds will be influenced by macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policy movements, with a focus on inflation pressures and employment data changes [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Operation of Major Asset Classes (20250922 - 20250926) - US Inflation Data Meets Expectations, with Commodities Rising Overall [1] - Timeframe: September 22 - September 26, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global: The market's performance last week was influenced by economic data. The US 8 - month PCE year - on - year growth rate met market expectations. The dollar index ended the week higher, stocks and bonds declined, and commodities rose. In general, commodities > stocks > bonds in terms of dollar - denominated assets [4][7]. - Domestic: China's industrial enterprise profits returned to positive growth in August year - on - year. The stock market and commodities ended the week higher, and the bond market declined. Overall, commodities > stocks > bonds [4][20]. - Outlook: The focus is on the release of domestic and foreign macro - data during the National Day. There are important data such as non - farm payrolls to be released, leading to high market uncertainty. After the holiday, price fluctuations of major asset classes may increase [4][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market - Most global stock markets declined. US stocks had a weekly correction. From a regional perspective, the three major US stock indexes ended the week lower, with a relatively large decline in the Asia - Pacific region. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index continued to operate at a low level [9]. - Specific index performance: MSCI US was down 0.35%, S&P 500 was down 0.31%, MSCI Asia - Pacific was down 1.02%, etc. [12][13] 3.1.2 Global Bond Market - Fed officials had some differences in the path of dollar interest rate cuts this year. Medium - and long - term US bond yields generally rose. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 6BP to 4.2% weekly, and the bond market declined. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [16]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The initial value of the month - on - month growth rate of US durable goods orders in August far exceeded expectations. The dollar index rose weekly, and most non - US currencies depreciated against the dollar. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated weakly. The weekly increase of the dollar index was 0.55% [17]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market - Geopolitical factors caused disruptions again, and international oil prices ended the week higher. Expectations of dollar interest rate cuts supported international precious metal prices. Most industrial metals and agricultural product prices fell [19]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market - Market sentiment changed little. Most of the major broad - based A - share indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index had the highest increase. In terms of sectors, electronics and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while consumer services underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21% weekly [21]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market - The central bank's net injection in the open market operation was 940.6 billion yuan. The liquidity marginally eased, and the bond market was weak. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [25]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market continued to rise weekly. Among the major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, while the black - related sectors underperformed [26].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 Ø 近两年，债券收益率流畅的下行一方面支撑来自于基本面，另一 方面资产荒的大环境必不可少。资金是逐利的，当国内主要资产 收益率面临下滑，缺乏赚钱效应时，低息的债券以稳胜出，被投 资者所选择。叠加资本利得的加持以及国内货币政策宽松的背 景，综合才造就了这两年较为极致的债牛行情。 Ø 今年以来，若按传统的债券分析框架，基本面并未出现明显的边 际变化去支撑债券收益率走高，尤其是下半年年以来，出口压力 加大，制造业动能转弱，国补逐步退出，经济出现断档式回落的 压力。三季度债券市场意外转向，我们认为最核心的变化在于股 市的牛市行情。权益市场牛市预期逐步形成，商品也在反内卷政 策下有看不见的手托底，两个大类资产的赚钱效应显现导致投资 者不再满足于债券微薄的收益，资金出现分流，情绪转弱易跌难 涨。 Ø 三季度末债券市场仍未出现明确的企稳迹象，收益率上行难言结 束。对债券市场而言，主要的利空仍是风险资产收益回升对资金 的分流，股市强势表现的持续性较强，尚未看到明显回落盘整的 迹象。从政策的导向来看，股市引导中长期资金入市，中国资产 价格重估是中长期趋势。因此，无论是外资还是境内机构 ...

Core Insights - Global stock markets have shown strong performance since the beginning of 2025, with the MSCI Global Index rising approximately 15% year-to-date, continuing a robust trend from previous years [1] - The average annual return for global stocks since the end of the 2022 bear market has reached 20%, which may surprise some investors who typically anchor their expectations around a long-term average return of 7%-10% [1] - This strong performance is not an anomaly but a recurring feature in market cycles, with investment-grade credit bonds historically yielding 6%-7% during economic expansions, while high-yield credit bonds have averaged returns of 11%-12% [1] Investment Insights - Investors should not be deterred by strong market performance; the 15%-20% rise in stocks this year should not be a reason for concern unless an economic downturn is anticipated [2] - Managing downside risk is crucial for enhancing long-term average returns; investors may consider funds that maintain strong participation in rising markets while minimizing downside risk, such as defensive equity funds and hedge funds [2] - Assets with favorable return characteristics, such as credit bonds, are particularly valuable for asset allocators, as they tend to perform well in up years and experience smaller losses in down years [2] Areas of Focus - Key structural growth catalysts to watch include fiscal stimulus, policy reforms, and potential interest rate cuts by central banks [3] - Monitoring inflation trends and the potential rise in cross-asset correlations is essential, despite significant progress made by central banks in controlling inflation [3] - The ability of corporate earnings growth to extend beyond large tech companies to a broader range of industries will be critical for achieving a more balanced and sustainable market rally [5]

Report Date - The report was released on September 29, 2025 [1] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 26, 2025, yields in countries like the US were 4.176%, UK 4.745%, etc. Changes varied across different time - frames (latest, one - week, one - month, one - year). For example, the US had a latest change of 0.005, a one - week change of 0.048, a one - month change of - 0.054, and a one - year change of 0.434 [2] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 26, 2025, yields such as the US at 3.570, UK at 4.009, etc. had different changes over different periods. For instance, the US had a latest change of 0.040, a one - week change of 0.050, a one - month change of 0.030, and a one - year change of - 0.040 [2] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On September 26, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real rate was 5.344 with a latest change of - 0.37%. Rates against other currencies also had various changes over different time - spans [2] RMB Data - On September 26, 2025, on - shore RMB was 7.135, off - shore RMB was 7.144, the mid - price was 7.115, and the 12 - month NDF was 6.994. Each had different percentage changes over different periods [2] Major Economies' Stock Indexes - On September 26, 2025, the S&P 500 was 6643.700, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was 46247.290, etc. Indexes had different latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year changes. For example, the S&P 500 had a latest change of 0.59%, a one - week change of - 0.31%, a one - month change of 2.84%, and a one - year change of 16.50% [2] Credit Bond Indexes - Different credit bond indexes (US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, etc.) had different latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.06%, a one - week change of - 0.40%, a one - month change of 1.22%, and a one - year change of 3.16% [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. had corresponding percentage changes. For example, A - shares closed at 3828.11 with a - 0.65% change [4] Valuation - PE (TTM) and its环比 changes were provided for indexes like CSI 300, S&P 500, etc. For example, the CSI 300 had a PE (TTM) of 14.04 with a - 0.09环比 change [4] Risk Premium - Risk premium data and its环比 changes were given for some indexes. For example, the S&P 500 had a 1/PE - 10 rate of - 0.56 with a - 0.03环比 change [4] Fund Flows - Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for different indexes were presented. For example, A - shares had a latest fund flow of - 1188.84 and a 5 - day average of - 537.15 [4] Trading Volume - Latest trading volumes and环比 changes were provided for different markets. For example, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had a latest trading volume of 21468.85 with a - 2242.05环比 change [4] Main Contract Premium or Discount - Basis and percentage changes were given for futures contracts like IF, IH, IC. For example, IF had a basis of - 25.05 and a - 0.55% change [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and percentage changes were provided for treasury bond futures like T00, TF00, etc. For example, T00 closed at 107.680 with a - 0.04% change [5] - Funding rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes were presented. For example, R001 was 1.3344% with a - 47.00 BP daily change [5]

Core Insights - The debt crisis is a systemic challenge for the global economy, significantly impacting financial stability, geopolitical dynamics, and market trends [1][17] - The rapid increase in U.S. federal debt, projected to reach $37.3 trillion by September 2025, poses risks to both domestic and international economic conditions [1][17] - Understanding the causes, manifestations, and potential consequences of the debt crisis is crucial for investors, economists, and policymakers [1] Causes of the Debt Crisis - The primary driver of the rapid growth in U.S. federal debt is the persistent budget deficit, with a projected deficit of $1.9 trillion for the fiscal year 2025, equivalent to 6% of GDP [2] - Tax cuts and increased spending, particularly from the Trump administration, have significantly reduced federal revenue, leading to an estimated $3.4 trillion increase in deficits from 2025 to 2034 [2] - Mandatory spending, including Social Security and Medicare, along with rising interest payments, are major contributors to the expanding deficit [2] Interest Costs and Market Dynamics - High interest costs exacerbate the debt issue, with projected interest payments reaching $952 billion in 2025, accounting for 18.4% of federal revenue [3] - The current high-interest environment, with a 10-year Treasury yield around 4.1%, has led to a significant increase in interest costs compared to previous years [3] - Rising bond yields across major economies signal a potential reset of the monetary system, affecting the value of the dollar and inflation pressures [4] Interconnectedness of Debt and Markets - The bond market, valued at over $50 trillion, is highly interconnected with equity and precious metals markets, with rising debt leading to increased borrowing costs [5] - The S&P 500 index has seen significant growth, but its valuation relative to GDP indicates potential bubble risks [5] - Gold has emerged as a hedge against currency devaluation, with prices rising from $1,770 per ounce in 2020 to $3,682 per ounce in 2025 [5][6] Geopolitical Implications - High debt levels limit diplomatic flexibility, particularly in U.S.-China relations, where China holds approximately $780 billion in U.S. debt [8] - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with non-dollar trade increasing and central banks shifting towards gold as a primary asset [8] - Historical patterns suggest that high debt levels can lead to military conflicts as a means to divert public attention from domestic issues [8] Social and Political Consequences - Wealth inequality has reached historic highs, with 90% of stock market wealth concentrated among the top 10% of the population [9] - Public concern over the federal budget deficit is significant, but political divisions hinder effective reform [9] - The lack of coherent fiscal policy exacerbates the debt crisis, with differing approaches from political parties complicating solutions [9] Fiscal Management and Cash Flow - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) has a balance of $410 billion, significantly below the target of $850 billion, necessitating frequent borrowing [10] - The short-term nature of U.S. debt makes the government sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, increasing refinancing costs [10] - The debt ceiling poses a significant risk, with potential market turmoil if Congress fails to raise or suspend it in a timely manner [11] Solutions and Future Outlook - Addressing the debt crisis requires a multi-faceted approach, including economic growth strategies, spending controls, and inflation management [13] - Long-term reforms should focus on balancing the budget, optimizing tax policies, and fostering international cooperation to attract foreign investment [15] - The next decade is critical for U.S. fiscal stability, necessitating decisive action to ensure long-term economic prosperity [16][17]

Core Insights - The rise in personal wealth in the U.S. is significant, with approximately 1,000 Americans becoming millionaires daily, as reported in UBS' 2025 Global Wealth Report [1] Group 1: Key Assets Driving Wealth - Real estate is a traditional yet effective path to millionaire status, with homeownership contributing to significant wealth accumulation [3] - Home values have appreciated rapidly, allowing families to build wealth through equity growth, even with modest down payments [4] - Renting out property can provide additional income, aiding in mortgage repayment and reinvestment opportunities [5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Stock market investments, particularly in tech and energy sectors, have seen substantial growth, with long-term holding strategies yielding the best results [6] - Consistent contributions to index funds, such as the S&P 500, can lead to significant wealth accumulation over time [6] - Employer-sponsored retirement plans, like 401(k)s, have enabled many average-income workers to build substantial retirement savings through consistent contributions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified, long-term investment strategy, particularly through a "permanent investment strategy" that balances various asset classes to achieve stable returns while minimizing risk [4][5][12]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The author advocates for a global multi-asset allocation approach, suggesting that investors should not overly concentrate on high-valuation sectors [4][5]. - A sample permanent investment portfolio is proposed, consisting of 12.5% in Nasdaq 100, 12.5% in S&P 500, 25% in gold, 25% in Chinese bonds, and 25% in U.S. bonds [6][12]. - Historical backtesting of this strategy shows a three-year return of 70.74%, outperforming the CSI 300's 18.41% and slightly lagging behind the S&P 500's 83.51% [9][12]. Group 2: Risk and Performance Metrics - The maximum drawdown for the permanent strategy is reported at 9.19%, significantly lower than the CSI 300's 24.8% and the S&P 500's 18.62% [9][12]. - The Sharpe ratio for the permanent strategy is calculated at 0.12, compared to 0.02 for the CSI 300 and 0.08 for the S&P 500, indicating better risk-adjusted returns [9][12]. - The strategy's positive return days are at 55.14%, slightly higher than the CSI 300's 49%, suggesting that while the strategy does not yield daily profits, it benefits from lower volatility [9][12]. Group 3: Long-term Performance - Over five years, the permanent strategy achieved a return of 79.1%, while the CSI 300 only returned 0.07% and the S&P 500 returned 115.36% [13]. - The article notes that rebalancing the portfolio over five years resulted in a decrease in performance from 76.3% to 66.6%, attributed to the strong upward trends in U.S. stocks and gold [17]. - The author argues that long-term rebalancing can enhance returns during market downturns by locking in profits and allowing for reinvestment at lower prices [17]. Group 4: Asset Correlation - The correlation between S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is very high at 0.97, indicating limited diversification benefits between these two assets [20]. - In contrast, the correlation between S&P 500 and gold is only 0.01, and between S&P 500 and U.S. bonds is 0.09, highlighting the importance of including low-correlation assets in a diversified portfolio [20]. - The article suggests that the current market is heavily concentrated in large-cap tech stocks, which may pose risks if the broader economy weakens [21].