Core Viewpoint - International institutions are raising their economic growth forecasts for China, highlighting the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy as a reflection of policy effectiveness, market performance, and growth potential [1][2][3]. Economic Growth Resilience - Goldman Sachs predicts China's GDP growth rate for the first half of this year to reach 5.2%, with further upward potential, having raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6 percentage points [2]. - Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have also adjusted their GDP growth forecasts for the next two years, increasing them by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [2]. - The shift from export-driven growth to policy-driven domestic demand is becoming evident, particularly with the impact of consumption policies [2][5]. Emerging Sector Development Potential - Foreign institutions emphasize the potential in technology innovation and market opportunities, with China positioned to lead in global high-tech competition, particularly in artificial intelligence [4]. - The strong resilience of the Chinese market is attracting global enterprises, as they plan to increase trade and manufacturing in China despite uncertainties in international trade [4]. Positive Changes in Consumption - The retail sector shows resilience, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and communication equipment, driven by consumption policies [5]. - The increase in retail sales in May, particularly in specific categories, contributed 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales growth [5]. Sustained Economic Development - Recent economic indicators, such as the manufacturing PMI and logistics index, signal a positive trend in the Chinese economy [6]. - The Chinese government is expected to continue its moderately loose monetary policy and accelerate fiscal spending to boost domestic demand [7]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand and improving living standards is seen as crucial for activating the economy's internal momentum [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the international status of the euro and the potential for the renminbi (RMB) to increase its international role, particularly in light of recent U.S. tariff policies that have altered the dynamics of global financial markets [2][10][21]. Euro's International Role - The euro's international status has remained stable in recent years, with some progress in areas like "reverse Yankee" bonds due to U.S. tariff policies, which have prompted investors to seek alternative currencies [2][7]. - The "International Role Composite Index" introduced in the Lagarde report measures a currency's role in international bonds, cross-border deposits, global foreign exchange reserves, and international settlements [6]. - The euro's share in official foreign exchange reserves has remained around 20% since 2015, while the RMB's share was 2.2% in 2024, down approximately 0.4 percentage points from 2022 [6][17]. Impact of U.S. Policies - U.S. tariff policies have created opportunities for the euro to enhance its international role by breaking the traditional negative correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds, leading investors to diversify into other currencies [10][11]. - The report emphasizes that for the euro to capitalize on these opportunities, Europe must eliminate internal financial market fragmentation and establish a unified capital market [11] . Challenges from Digital Currencies - The rise of cryptocurrencies poses challenges to the international monetary system, with the U.S. actively developing policies around digital assets that could affect global financial stability [13][14]. - The report calls for Europe to accelerate the development of a digital euro and improve cross-border payment systems to strengthen the euro's international position [14]. Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical factors are increasingly seen as significant in shaping the international monetary system, with a notable rise in gold's share in foreign exchange reserves attributed to concerns over geopolitical risks [16]. - The report indicates that military power is linked to a currency's international status, suggesting that the euro lags behind the dollar partly due to the latter's geopolitical security backing [17][18]. Recommendations for RMB - The article suggests that China should leverage its economic position to enhance the RMB's international role without compromising financial security, focusing on practical measures rather than a formal internationalization roadmap [20][21]. - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining economic growth to bolster the RMB's international status, as perceptions of slowing growth could diminish its appeal [21].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong is emerging as a significant financial hub amidst global market volatility, driven by capital inflows and the need for alternative financing options due to the ongoing tariff wars and the depreciation of the US dollar [2][23]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index rose over 20% following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," while the Hong Kong dollar reached a strong exchange rate of 7.75 against the US dollar [1]. - In the first half of 2025, net inflows from mainland China into the Hong Kong stock market exceeded 710 billion HKD, significantly higher than previous years [2]. - The Hong Kong IPO market saw a 700% year-on-year increase in funds raised, driven by international capital [2]. Group 2: Currency and Financial Stability - The US dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of 2025, marking its worst performance since 1973, leading to significant capital outflows from the US [3][23]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened multiple times to stabilize the Hong Kong dollar, injecting approximately 129 billion HKD into the financial system [5][10]. - The Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate fluctuated between strong and weak zones, prompting discussions on the benefits and drawbacks of the linked exchange rate system [5][39]. Group 3: Wealth Management and Investment Trends - Boston Consulting Group predicts that by 2029, Hong Kong will surpass Switzerland as the largest cross-border wealth management center globally [4]. - Wealth management revenues in Hong Kong increased significantly, with HSBC reporting a 14% rise in wholesale banking income in the first quarter [17][30]. - The average wealth of adults in mainland China is projected to continue growing, enhancing cross-border investment potential [32]. Group 4: RMB and Trade Financing - Hong Kong is the largest offshore RMB business hub, handling about 80% of global offshore RMB payments [18]. - Cross-border RMB settlements between China and ASEAN countries grew by 35% year-on-year, indicating a shift towards RMB financing [22]. - The demand for RMB in trade financing is increasing, reflecting a broader trend of "de-dollarization" in international trade [26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The financial landscape in Hong Kong is expected to evolve with increased focus on offshore RMB markets and digital financial infrastructure [38][45]. - The capital from the Middle East is becoming a significant source of wealth for Hong Kong, with sovereign wealth funds projected to grow substantially [37]. - Hong Kong's unique position as a "super connector" between China and international markets is likely to enhance its financial stability and growth prospects [46].

Domestic News - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fan'an, attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, emphasizing China's commitment to deepen financial cooperation among BRICS nations and support the development of the New Development Bank [2] - The People's Bank of China released a draft for public consultation regarding the rules for the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), aiming to optimize its functions and services [2] Market Dynamics - On July 4, the interbank market showed a mixed trend in major interest rate bonds, with short- to medium-term bonds continuing to decline due to ample liquidity, while long-term bonds experienced a slight increase [9][10] - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 0.15 basis points to 1.6410%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield also increased by 0.15 basis points to 1.7175% [9][10] Credit Bonds - On July 4, two industrial bonds experienced significant price deviations, with "H1碧地01" dropping over 66% and "H0中骏02" declining over 19% [11] - Sunac China announced plans to issue 754 million shares to raise approximately 5.6 billion yuan to repay domestic bonds [11] Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market showed divergence, with the China Securities Index for convertible bonds rising by 0.15% and the Shenzhen index declining by 0.01% on July 4 [14] - The trading volume in the convertible bond market reached 82.835 billion yuan, an increase of 15.047 billion yuan from the previous trading day [14] - Notable performers included the newly listed electric chemical convertible bond, which hit the upper limit, and the Anke convertible bond, which rose over 36% [14][15] International Market - The yield on 10-year government bonds in major European economies showed mixed trends, with Germany's yield decreasing by 1 basis point to 2.57% while France's yield increased by 1 basis point [17]

7 月债市从量变到质变 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T专题able_ReportType] 报告 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 37 月债市从量变到质变 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [➢Table_Summary] 6 月债券市场超长非活跃券与信用债出现结构性行情，历史上看活跃券下行 受限、投资者通过交易部分流动性偏弱品种获取超额收益，可能反映了利 好因素已被活跃券充分定价，这可能是行情进入尾声的信号。但当前市场 行情与过去的差异之处在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trend of loose funds is strong, and there is no need to worry about short - term liquidity, but there may be sporadic disturbances at times such as tax payment periods [1]. - In the past week, the trading volume of trading desks was high, and the sentiment of funds to extend duration remained strong. The duration of medium - and long - term bond funds reached a new high this year, and there was a trend of extending duration in credit bonds, secondary bonds, and interest - rate bonds. In the future, the short - term market is driven by trading desks, so it is necessary to closely monitor the ebb and flow of buying in ultra - long non - active interest - rate bonds and long - term credit bonds [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Central Bank Operations - In the past week (6/30 - 7/4), the central bank's open - market operations resulted in a net liquidity withdrawal of 13753 billion yuan. As of 7/4, the central bank's reverse - repurchase balance was 6522 billion yuan, significantly lower than on 6/30 but still higher than the seasonal level in previous years. In the next week (7/7 - 7/11), 6522 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases will mature, with the maturity pressure distributed as Monday > Tuesday > Wednesday > Thursday > Friday [9]. - In July, a total of 1.5 trillion yuan of MLF and outright reverse - repurchases will mature, including 3000 billion yuan of MLF, 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse - repurchases, and 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse - repurchases [10]. 3.1.2 Government Bond Issuance - In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 341 billion yuan, with a net payment of - 401 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 742 billion yuan for local bonds. In the next week, the expected net payment of government bonds is 2511 billion yuan, with 1399 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 1112 billion yuan for local bonds. The net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday, about 2174 billion yuan, and relatively small from Tuesday to Friday [14]. - As of 7/4, the net financing progress of treasury bonds is 53.8%, with a remaining net financing space of 3.08 trillion yuan in 2025; the issuance progress of new local bonds is 50.3%, with a remaining issuance space of 2.58 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of refinancing special bonds is 89.8%, with a remaining issuance space of 204.1 billion yuan. The supply of government bonds is slow in July, and the issuance pressure is large in August and September in the third quarter [16][18]. 3.1.3 Bill Market - In the past week, the bill interest rates showed a divergent trend. The 3 - month direct - discount and transfer - discount interest rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased, while the 6 - month rates decreased. Seasonally, the current bill interest rates are still significantly weaker than the seasonal level, indicating that the recovery of credit demand is still slow [24]. 3.1.4 Fund Review - After the quarter - end, funds became significantly looser. From 7/2 - 7/4, the fund sentiment index stabilized in the range of 45 - 50. Most fund interest rates declined, and the fund prices moved closer to the policy interest rates. The term and market stratifications mostly converged [26][28][29]. - In the past week, the total trading volumes of DR/R/GC were 12.10 trillion yuan, 37.99 trillion yuan, and 107.87 million lots respectively. The trading volumes of DR001/R001/GC001 were 11.64 trillion yuan, 34.05 trillion yuan, and 93.67 million lots respectively. On 7/4, the overnight trading volume ratios were 97%, 91%, and 89% respectively, all higher than on 6/27 [35]. - The net lending of the banking system was basically stable, and the net lending of large - scale banks increased. The net borrowing demand of core non - banking institutions decreased slightly. In terms of maturity, large - scale banks mainly lent overnight funds, while funds and securities firms mainly borrowed overnight funds, and insurance and other products mainly borrowed 7 - day funds [39]. 3.1.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - In the past week (6/30 - 7/6), the total issuance of certificates of deposit was 243.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 2.08 billion yuan. The issuance scale decreased compared with the previous week, but the net financing scale increased. By entity, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit was ranked as joint - stock banks > state - owned banks > city commercial banks > rural commercial banks. By maturity, the weighted issuance maturity increased significantly [46]. - In the past week, the issuance prices of certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks at various maturities decreased significantly. On 7/4, the yield to maturity of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit was 1.5929%, down 4.21bps from 6/27. In the next three weeks, 510.5 billion yuan (7/7 - 7/13), 802.8 billion yuan (7/14 - 7/20), 1076.5 billion yuan (7/21 - 7/27), and 376.7 billion yuan (7/23 - 8/3) will mature respectively. The maturity pressure is large in late July [48][52]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior Tracking 3.2.1 Secondary Transactions - The funds' demand for credit bonds is stronger than that for interest - rate bonds, and the trend of extending the duration of credit bonds is obvious [56]. 3.2.2 Institutional Duration - On 7/4, the median of the 10 - day moving average of the duration of medium - and long - term bond funds was 3.96 years, further increasing compared with 6/27 (3.91 years). The 5 - day moving average of the trading duration of urban investment bonds, secondary bonds increased, while that of industrial bonds decreased [57][61]. 3.2.3 Institutional Leverage - In the past week, the calculated bond - market leverage ratio was 107.96%, slightly higher than the previous week (107.93%), and the upward trend slowed down [63].

Table_First|Table_Summary 固收定期研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 【华福固收】7 月信用债投资策略思考 ➢ 7月信用债投资策略思考 展望后市，考虑到抢出口放缓及前期已透支需求，出口可能阶段性走弱，后续关税谈判 存在不确定性，而国内各类对冲政策效果有待观察，央行可能通过重启国债买卖实现流 动性投放，因此我们判断7月甚至三季度机构风险偏好降低，债市整体基调仍是震荡偏 多。但从稍长时间看，国内"内卷式"竞争问题受到中央及多个行业协会关注、欧洲财 政扩张提振经济预期，叠加债市2024年的趋势型下行已透支了后市的行情，因此后续债 市下行空间可能有限。 ➢ 风险提示：行业面临政策不及预期风险、基本面下行风险、信用风险蔓延。 团队成员 分析师: 徐亮 执业证书编号： S0210524040003 邮箱：xl30484@hfzq.com.cn Table_First|Table_Contacter 分 析 师 : 梁克淳 梁克淳 执业证书编号： S0210524060002 邮箱：lkc30514@hfzq.com.cn 在上述判断的基础上，信用债价值凸显，且随着信用债ETF增长与"存款搬家"行 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the investment rating of the industry in the report. Core Viewpoints - As of July 4, the weighted average trading maturities of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.27 years and 3.27 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading maturities of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.28 years, 3.73 years, and 3.27 years respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.52 years, 1.69 years, 3.33 years, and 1.37 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at relatively low historical quantiles and leasing company bonds at a relatively high historical quantile [2][9]. - The coupon duration crowding index declined and then slightly increased. After reaching its peak in March 2024, it dropped and this week slightly decreased compared to last week, currently at the 27.80% level since March 2021 [12]. Summary by Directory 1. All - Variety Maturity Overview - The weighted average trading maturities of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, general commercial financial bonds, securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 2.27 years, 3.27 years, 4.28 years, 3.73 years, 3.27 years, 1.52 years, 1.69 years, 3.33 years, and 1.37 years respectively. Their corresponding historical quantiles since March 2021 were 94.1%, 97.7%, 97.3%, 68.1%, 99.5%, 29.1%, 13.9%, 70.8%, and 82.9% [11]. - The coupon duration crowding index declined after reaching its peak in March 2024 and this week slightly decreased compared to last week, currently at the 27.80% level since March 2021 [12]. 2. Variety Microscope - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The weighted average trading maturity hovered around 2.27 years. Guangdong provincial - level urban investment bonds had a duration of over 5 years, while Guizhou provincial - level urban investment bonds' trading duration shortened to around 0.48 years. The durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang, prefecture - level cities in Guangdong, district - county - level in Fujian, and prefecture - level cities in Shandong were at over 90% historical quantiles, and the durations of Hunan provincial - level and Henan prefecture - level urban investment bonds were approaching their highest levels since 2021 [3][16]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The weighted average trading maturity was around 3.27 years, slightly longer than last week. The trading maturity of the real estate industry shortened to 1.85 years, while that of the public utilities industry lengthened to 3.63 years. The real estate industry's trading maturity was at a relatively low historical quantile, while industries such as public utilities, food and beverage, biomedicine, commercial retail, and building materials were all at over 90% historical quantiles [3][20]. - **Commercial Bank Bonds**: The duration of general commercial financial bonds lengthened to 3.27 years, at the 99.5% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 4.28 years, at the 97.30% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds lengthened to 3.73 years, at the 68.10% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [3][23]. - **Other Financial Bonds**: In terms of the weighted average trading maturity, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 83%, 14%, 30%, and 71% historical quantiles respectively. The duration of insurance company bonds slightly lengthened compared to last week [3][25].

证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | | | 央行国债买卖披露方式调整 逆回购净回笼无改资金宽松 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250706 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 3央行国债买卖披露方式调整 逆回购净回笼无改资金宽松 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+86 18817583889 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com [➢Table_Summary] 货币市场：本周央行公开市场净回笼流动性 13753 亿元。周一跨半年当日资 金面明显收紧，周二后尽管央行逆回购持 ...

编 辑丨朱益民 大河奔流，潮立中天。 今 年 以 来 ， A 股 江 湖 风 雷 激 荡 ， 一 方 面 ， 关 税 扰 动 下 不 确 定 性 因 素 增 多 ， 另 一 方 面 ， DeepSeek引发中国资产价值重估，以成长、金融为两端的"哑铃"风格愈演愈烈。 整体来看，受益于一揽子新政影响，A股市场震荡回升。截至2025年6月30日，2025年中市值 百强榜隆重出炉， 入围企业总市值41.63万亿元，较去年同期 （截至2024年6月30日，下同） 的35.33万亿元增长17.83% 。 作 者丨杨坪 实习生宋晨曦 宁王、迪王跻身万亿 "巨龙" 俱乐部 华山之巅，科技新锐与传统豪强交锋。 从前十榜来看，央国企仍占据主要席位 ，工、农、建三大行占据前三席，贵州茅台从前二掉 到第四位，央企"巨龙"中移动、中石油分别排名第五和第七，中国银行、招商银行排名第六 和第八。 动力电池霸主宁德时代、比亚迪以迅雷不及掩耳之势突破万亿市值大关，力压中国人寿、中 国平安等金融巨子，分别跻身百强榜第九和第十席位，成为前十榜中的新面孔。 过去一年来，宁德时代、比亚迪市值涨幅分别达到了46.16%、47.64% ，截至6月30日 ...