(经济观察)中国经济总量五年"四连跳"现三大趋势 中新社北京1月19日电 题：中国经济总量五年"四连跳"现三大趋势 中新社记者 王恩博 随着2025年国内生产总值(GDP)超过140万亿元(人民币，下同)，中国经济总量在"十四五"时期已先后迈 上四个十万亿大台阶。五年"四连跳"背后，显现三个趋势。 ——经济底盘更稳，抗风险能力更强。 140万亿元，对应的是实打实的生产力。 中国粮食产量连续两年站稳1.4万亿斤，制造业增加值连续16年稳居世界首位，2025年服务业增加值占 GDP比重升至57.7%，网络基础设施全球最大、覆盖最广......多重因素共同构成抵御外部冲击的支撑。 中国巨大人口基数所孕育的超大规模市场，亦塑造出巨大的比较优势。需求庞大、层次多样、模式丰 富，消费梯度差异带来不断拓展的市场纵深，能够有效对冲外需波动风险。 据官方统计，2025年全年，中国社会消费品零售总额突破50万亿元；最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率 为52%，比上年全年提高5个百分点，成为经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。 展望"十五五"开局之年，中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，大力提振消费、扩大内需成为政策发力 的重心。目前中国消费者信 ...

Group 1 - The investment environment is characterized by trial and error, with few guaranteed opportunities for significant profits, which reflects the market's normal state [1] - The financial market shows a balanced and slightly loose liquidity, with the central bank conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 158.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan [3] - Economic data for December indicates strong production but weak demand, with a slight increase in the stock market and a subdued bond market [5] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing low trading volumes, with the most active 10-year government bonds trading less than 600 times, indicating a lack of investor engagement [5] - Recent economic indicators show a 17% decline in real estate investment and a 17% drop in the birth rate, highlighting significant demographic and economic challenges [5] - The current interest rates for various financial instruments are as follows: R001 at 1.38%, R007 at 1.53%, and R014 at 1.62%, with varying changes in transaction volumes [4]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the bond market will enter a "game" era in 2025, driven by increased fiscal policy and a focus on "debt reduction + development," with the deficit rate expected to rise to 4% [5][12] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for a nominal GDP growth rate of around 5.5% to achieve a per capita GDP of $20,000 to $30,000 by 2035, necessitating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6%-7.5% from 2026 to 2035 [31][32] - The report emphasizes the need for a shift in investment strategies towards a focus on "coupon and leverage" rather than solely capital gains, as the market lacks clear trends [5][21] Group 1: Supply and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy will continue to expand, with a focus on "debt reduction + development," leading to a significant increase in special bond issuance [7][12] - The monetary policy will maintain a cautious approach, with expectations of 1-2 rate cuts in 2026 to support fiscal efforts and alleviate bank liabilities [5][13] - The bond market is expected to face challenges due to a high supply of government bonds in the second and third quarters of 2026, which may test market sentiment [5][12] Group 2: Economic Growth and Internal Demand - The report highlights a shift in global monetary policy towards differentiation, with domestic growth needing to focus more on internal demand expansion [32][40] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of innovation-driven growth and the establishment of a unified national market to enhance economic efficiency [31][32] - The expected economic growth will require a stable inflation rate and a focus on enhancing internal growth dynamics to recover from the impacts of previous economic models [31][32] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - The report suggests prioritizing duration control in investment strategies for 2026, focusing on capturing short-term opportunities and structural adjustments in bond types [5][21] - The changing landscape of asset pricing and institutional demand may lead to differentiated investment behaviors among banks, insurance companies, and funds [5][12] - The report warns against a mechanical extension of duration for capital gains, advocating for a more active management approach to enhance returns [5][21]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the financial market trends in China, particularly focusing on the credit demand, social financing, and government bond market for the year 2026. [1][2][3] Key Insights and Arguments - **Weak Credit Demand**: Overall credit demand in China is weak, influenced by manufacturing overcapacity and the impact of local government debt on financing needs. [3][6] - **Loan Structure**: In December 2025, new loans amounted to 910 billion yuan, with a significant portion being short-term corporate loans and bill discounts, indicating banks' aggressive lending strategies at the end of the quarter. [2][4] - **Personal Loans Decline**: Personal loans have been in continuous negative growth since August 2025, reflecting low consumer credit demand despite a strong stock market performance. This trend is expected to persist into 2026. [2][3] - **Social Financing Trends**: Social financing growth is projected to decrease, with an expected total of approximately 3.5 trillion yuan for 2026, slightly lower than the previous year. [6][9] - **Government Bond Issuance**: The issuance of government bonds is expected to increase, with a stable credit growth forecast for 2026, as the issuance schedule is front-loaded. [9][19] Important but Overlooked Content - **M1 Growth Rate**: The M1 growth rate fell to 3.8% by the end of 2025, with expectations of maintaining around 3% in the second half of 2026. [5] - **Insurance Sector Impact**: The nearing conclusion of a 6 trillion yuan special bond debt plan may improve the supply of long-term bonds, which is crucial for the investment strategies of the insurance sector. [7][8] - **Bank Wealth Management Trends**: Bank wealth management products are expected to see significant growth in the second and third quarters of 2026, while the first quarter typically shows a decline due to banks focusing on loan growth. [11][12] - **Long-term Bond Demand**: There is a notable increase in demand for long-term government bonds from rural commercial banks due to a decrease in their funding costs, with expectations of a significant rise in their holdings of 15 to 30-year bonds. [17] - **Stock Market Regulation**: The regulatory body is actively preventing excessive volatility in the stock market, with recent actions indicating a desire to control overheating in the market. [18] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to consider investing in secondary capital bonds or perpetual bonds for yield, while also exploring opportunities in 30-year government bonds for potential price movements. [20]

// 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，1月16日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了867亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量867亿元，中标量867亿 元。Wind数据显示，当日340亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放527亿元。当周实现净投放8128亿元。 Wind数据显示，1月19日至23日当周，央行公开市场将有9515亿元逆回购到期。此外，23日还将有1500亿元国库现金定存到期。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场资金面逐渐恢复宽松，DR001加权平均利率降超4bp至1.32%附近。匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价也滑至1.30%， 供给在千亿元左右；非银机构质押信用债借入隔夜，最新报价集中在1.45%附近。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为3.64%。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.63%附近，较上日小幅下行。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行 （*数据来源：Wind-成交统 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of global markets in early 2023, highlighting a broad rise in international stock markets while the U.S. market, particularly large-cap stocks, lagged behind, indicating a preference for small-cap stocks amidst a backdrop of liquidity and sentiment recovery [3][20]. Group 1: Market Trends - Global stock markets, including Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, have reached historical highs, while the Shanghai Composite Index has hit a 10-year peak [3][20]. - The U.S. market has shown a notable divergence, with large-cap stocks underperforming compared to small-cap stocks, suggesting a selective investment approach despite overall liquidity [3][20]. Group 2: Liquidity and Sentiment - The article emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between "big expectations" and "small certainties" regarding market liquidity and sentiment recovery [5][22]. - A significant drop in market trading activity was observed after the "Quadruple Witching Day" in December, marking the fastest decline in five years, which coincided with liquidity risk events [5][22]. - Following the year-end holidays, trading activity rebounded, leading to a notable market recovery [23]. Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal expansion remains a key theme across major economies, driven by election-year dynamics in the U.S. and new leadership in Japan, alongside a revival in European fiscal efforts [7][25]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, including the initiation of Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), are expected to enhance liquidity in the market [9][27]. - The anticipated scale of net purchases by the Federal Reserve over the next 12 months is projected to be $220 billion, with a monthly average of around $40 billion from January to April [9][27][28]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Risks - The market's expectations for fiscal and monetary stimulus are likely to be a significant source of volatility throughout the year [12][32]. - There is a cautious outlook on unconventional fiscal policies, such as direct payments to residents, due to potential legislative hurdles [12][32]. - The article outlines four potential scenarios for market dynamics based on the interplay of Federal Reserve policies and the strength of the U.S. dollar, indicating varying impacts on global assets [14][34].

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周，主要关注中纪委全会对全年反腐定调，参考点评 《中纪委全会的四大关注点》。 部分重点 内容包括： 1 、关注换届纪律： 总书记在全会讲话，提出" 今年地方将开始换届，要把真正忠诚可靠、表里如 一、担当尽责的好干部用起来 ……党的自我革命重在治权，把权力关进制度笼子是新时代全面从严治 党的一项重要任务"。会议公报提出，" 严明政治纪律、换届纪律，坚决清除心怀二志、言行不一 的'两面人' " ，" 坚决纠治临近换届等待观望不作为 ，换届后急功近利'翻烧饼'、搞'政绩工程'等突 出问题"。 2 、重点行业及领域 ：会议公报提出，"深化整治金融、国企、能源、教育、学会协会、开发区和招 标投标等重点领域腐败"，"对 违规吃喝 、违规收送礼品礼金等易发多发问题深化整治……"，"深挖 细查预期收益、约定代持、政商'旋转门'等新型腐败和隐性腐败"。 近一周，其他值得关注的政策： 1 、央行加码结构性货币政策 ： 1 月 15 日，央行宣布若干货币政策，以结构性为主：下调各类结构 性货币政策工具 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has generally recovered this week, with short - term and credit bonds performing stronger. The short - term and credit interest rates have declined significantly, while the long - term recovery is relatively mild [1][8]. - Although there were concerns about bond supply and bank deposit outflows at the beginning of the year, the actual situation shows that the supply of government bonds is not fast, and banks do not have obvious liability gaps. The current trading structure shows that non - banks are reducing their positions, while banks and insurance companies are increasing their allocations [1][5][8]. - The short - term bond market may fluctuate, and the space for further adjustment is limited. It is advisable to wait for opportunities to increase allocations, which may occur in late January or later. As the market develops, the bond market may start to recover in the middle and later stages of the first quarter, and at that time, it is possible to consider gradually lengthening the duration [5][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Level - The supply rhythm of government bonds at the beginning of the year is not fast. In the first three weeks, the total net financing of government bonds was 886.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than 970.3 billion yuan in the same period last year. The net financing of local bonds was 386.4 billion yuan, also lower than 472.1 billion yuan in the same period in 2025 [1][8]. - The term structure of bond issuance remains long. Among the 424.1 billion yuan of local bonds issued in the first three weeks of this year, bonds with a term of more than 10 years accounted for 58%, and the proportion of 30 - year bonds was 33.8%, higher than 21.0% last year [1][8]. Demand Level - The market was once worried that bank deposit outflows would lead to insufficient allocation power. Due to the maturity of high - interest time deposits and the strong performance of the stock market, there were concerns about deposit outflows to non - banks, time deposit current - account conversion, and non - bank conversion [2][11]. - However, from the perspective of certificates of deposit (CDs), banks have not shown obvious liability shortages or liquidity indicator pressures. In the past four weeks, banks have had a net repayment of 885.5 billion yuan of CDs, and they have been increasing their allocation of CDs since the beginning of the year [3][14]. - The repurchase volume and interest rates also show that there is no large gap in bank liabilities. Although the recent capital price has risen slightly from the low at the beginning of the year, it is still at a low level. The overnight interest rate of 1.3% - 1.4% and the 7 - day inter - bank lending rate of 1.4% - 1.5% are significantly lower than previous years, and the seasonal increase is weaker. The inter - bank pledged repurchase trading volume is 8.76 trillion yuan, significantly higher than previous years, indicating that the capital supply in the market is more abundant [4][15]. Trading Structure - Currently, non - banks are reducing their positions, while banks and insurance companies are increasing their allocations. Non - banks are shifting their positions from long - term bonds to credit bonds, which has promoted the strength of secondary capital bonds (Second - tier and Perpetual bonds, "二永") and credit bonds [5][17]. - The credit spreads have been compressed to a relatively low level. The spreads between 5 - year AAA - second - tier capital bonds, AAA urban investment bonds, and treasury bonds are only 56bps and 39bps respectively, both at relatively low levels in the past few years. The spread between 30 - year and 1 - year treasury bonds has reached a high of 106bps, and the space for further compression of credit spreads may be limited [5][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the trends of the US Treasury bond market, US macro - economic indicators, and major asset classes. It shows that the US Treasury bond yields fluctuated this week due to economic data, geopolitical issues, and concerns about the Fed's independence. The US macro - economy shows mixed signals in different sectors, with some indicators improving while others still showing weakness. Major asset classes also have diverse performances across different regions and types [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 美债利率本周回顾 - This week (January 9 - January 16, 2026), US Treasury bond yields generally increased, with the curve rising. Except for the ultra - long - term bonds, interest rates rose significantly. In the first half of the week, yields declined due to economic data and moderate CPI. In the second half, housing sales, unemployment data, geopolitical issues, and concerns about the Fed's independence pushed yields up again [1][11]. - After the Fed received a subpoena from Trump, Powell countered, and the Fed's tough attitude eased investors' panic. The market doesn't think Trump will substantially undermine the current Fed. Trump's "pressure" is more likely a warning for the next - term chairman. However, this move may have the opposite effect, and there are also divisions within the Republican Party [2][12]. - The 3 - year US Treasury bill auction was robust, with a bid - to - cover ratio higher than the previous value. The 10 - year and 30 - year auctions were relatively weak [17]. 3.2 美国宏观经济指标点评 - **景气指数**: In 2025, the US new home sales market showed signs of recovery, but there were regional disparities and inventory pressures. The existing home sales in December 2025 reached a three - year high. Retail sales in November 2025 rebounded, mainly driven by holiday consumption. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in January 2026 reached a new high since September last year, indicating a marginal improvement in regional manufacturing demand [3][23]. - **就业**: As of the week of January 10, 2026, the number of initial jobless claims decreased, reaching the second - lowest level in two years. However, the labor market shows a weak balance of "low lay - offs and low hiring", and the employment growth remains sluggish [24][25]. - **通胀**: In 2025, the US PPI and CPI showed different trends. The PPI was affected by energy prices and service - end price dynamics. The CPI showed a stage of stability in December 2025, with some categories' price increases slowing down and others accelerating [26]. 3.3 大类资产点评 - **债券**: German bond yields declined, while Japanese bond yields remained high due to market expectations of an interest - rate hike [4][28]. - **权益**: Asian stock markets generally strengthened, while European and American markets were under pressure [4][29]. - **大宗**: Metals and digital assets led the gains, while agricultural products and some industrial raw materials faced pressure [4][30]. - **外汇**: Asian currencies were generally under pressure, while the Russian ruble rose [4][32]. 3.4 市场跟踪 The report provides various charts to track the performance of global major economies' government bond interest rates, stock indices, commodities, and foreign exchange rates, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [33][44][51][56].

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 1 月 18 日 汇率强则港股强 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，12 月出口增速录得 6.6%，显著好于我们此前的预期，"一带一路" 出口红利延续，我们预计下半年到明年或为出口转弱的窗口期，届时，决策层 大概率出台大规模扩大内需特别是地产相关政策。 海外方面，1）鲍威尔被传讯令美联储独立性受到质疑，但暂不影响降息节 奏，1 月大概率不降息。2）美国 12 月 CPI 与核心 CPI 低于预期，但伊朗问题 对油价形成支撑。 资产方面，1）央行对汇率的态度有所转变，中间价最快本月破 7。央行选择 "结构性降息"而非全面降息，此外表态不会为了出口压制汇率，表明央行对汇 率升值容忍度提升。2）11 月下旬离岸人民币加速升值令恒生止跌，若美元再 度转弱或离岸人民币进一步升值，港股上行趋势将被彻底打开。 货币流动性跟踪（1 月 12 日——1 月 16 日） 央行维持净投放，但资金价格整体上行 ❑ 流动性复盘： 公开市场操作方面，1 月 12 日—1 月 16 日期间，7 天逆回购投放 9515 亿元， 到期 1387 亿元，净投放 8128 亿元；央行进行 ...