Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the international gold price is under pressure due to reduced market risk aversion following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, with gold prices falling approximately 1.5% this week [1] - The easing of geopolitical risks has boosted market risk appetite, which continued into the trading session on Friday, supported by positive news regarding U.S.-China trade framework discussions [1] - Despite the recent decline, gold prices have increased over 25% this year, remaining close to historical highs, with geopolitical and trade uncertainties providing significant support [1] Group 2 - Global central banks are continuously increasing their gold reserves, and expectations of the Federal Reserve potentially restarting loose monetary policy are important factors supporting gold prices [2] - As a non-yielding asset, gold holds greater allocation value in a low-interest-rate environment, with current spot gold prices around $3,330 per ounce, down approximately 0.5% on the day [2] - Palladium has shown strong performance this week with a cumulative increase of about 10%, while platinum prices have continued to rise after reaching a multi-year high [2]

Core Insights - The article analyzes the supply and demand dynamics of precious metals, specifically gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, to determine which metal is the most valuable in the current market [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - Gold remains the most sought-after precious metal, driven by its status as a safe-haven asset and its demand in jewelry and investment sectors [1] - Silver is experiencing increased industrial demand, particularly in electronics and solar panels, which is contributing to its price stability [1] - Platinum's demand is primarily influenced by the automotive industry, particularly for catalytic converters, while palladium has seen a surge in demand due to stricter emissions regulations [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The article highlights that gold prices have shown resilience, with fluctuations primarily influenced by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [1] - Silver prices have been more volatile, reflecting its dual role as both an industrial metal and an investment asset [1] - Platinum and palladium prices are expected to remain high due to ongoing supply constraints and increasing demand from the automotive sector [1]

Core Insights - Precious metals have shown strong performance this year, with gold, silver, and platinum all returning over 20%, significantly outperforming traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and the dollar [1] - The recent surge in precious metals is attributed to heightened risk aversion, concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit, and a shift towards de-dollarization by foreign central banks amid changing political dynamics following Trump's return to the White House [1] - Gold has risen approximately 27% since 2025, while U.S. Treasuries have failed to provide traditional safe-haven benefits, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards gold and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [1] Precious Metals Performance - Gold, silver, and platinum have all significantly outperformed traditional safe-haven assets, with platinum seeing a year-to-date increase of over 35% [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Gold Trust have seen inflows exceeding $11 billion this year, with SPDR Gold Trust ranking 13th in the ETF industry with nearly $7 billion in assets [1] Silver and Platinum Opportunities - Investment opportunities in silver and platinum are highlighted, with silver recently surpassing $37 per ounce, marking a new high since 2012, yet still below its historical peak of $50 per ounce in 2011 [2] - The gold-silver ratio has recently decreased from 100:1 but remains above the long-term average of 60:1, indicating potential for silver investment [2] - Silver's dual role as an industrial and safe-haven asset positions it uniquely, with demand driven by applications in electronics, solar panels, and medical devices [2] Market Trends and Demand - The demand for platinum is also on the rise due to supply shortages and increased demand for platinum jewelry, driven by high gold prices [3] - The slowdown in electric vehicle adoption is expected to prolong the presence of internal combustion engines, increasing the demand for platinum and palladium in catalytic converters [3]

Group 1 - The most actively traded gold futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $2.2 to settle at $3406.5 per ounce, with a gain of 0.06% on the 17th [1] - Gold prices faced profit-taking pressure from investors this week, but geopolitical tensions provided support, leading to a temporary stabilization after a significant drop in the previous trading day [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 0.9% month-over-month decline in retail sales for May, exceeding economists' expectations of a 0.5% drop, following a revision of April's data to a 0.1% decrease [1] Group 2 - The World Gold Council's "Annual Central Bank Gold Survey" revealed that 95% of surveyed central banks expect an increase in global gold reserves over the next 12 months, with 43% planning to increase their official gold holdings this year, up from 29% in the previous survey [1] - Over the past three years, global central banks have purchased more than 3000 tons of gold, indicating a strong demand for gold reserves [1] Group 3 - Silver prices surged on the 17th, with July futures rising by $0.81 to $37.180 per ounce, marking a 2.23% increase and reaching the highest level since 2012 [2] - Citibank noted that the silver market is facing several years of supply shortages, with inventory holders being highly sensitive to price changes and strong investment demand [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Short-term geopolitical risks support the upward trend of precious metals, and the long-term positive logic remains unchanged. Gold may continue its strong performance in the short term, while silver will maintain a consolidation trend due to industrial demand constraints [3][4][5] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased, and the market should focus on short-term geopolitical changes and policy signals from the upcoming FOMC meeting [3][17][19] - Central banks' gold purchases are expected to drive up gold prices, and funds from central banks are expected to maintain a net inflow [3][45] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This week, gold returned to an upward trend, breaking through the $3,450 mark, while silver consolidated at a high level with a slight decline, and the gold-silver ratio rebounded [5] - US inflation data cooled down comprehensively, and employment data weakened, pushing up the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, which supported the rise of precious metals [5] - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East escalated sharply, and the risk aversion mood pushed up the premium of gold [5] Macro - Financial Factors - **Dollar Index**: This week, the dollar index continued to weaken, reaching a low of 97.60. On Friday, due to the sudden change in the Middle East geopolitical crisis, the dollar index ended its continuous decline [3][15] - **Fed Interest Rate**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in July is 23.1%, and the probability in September has risen to 71.3%, with an expectation of two rate cuts within the year [3][17][19] - **US Economic Indicators**: US manufacturing and service industries showed signs of weakness. The employment market also showed signs of softening, and inflation data was lower than expected [24][28][31] Supply - Demand Situation - **Supply**: The global silver market is expected to have a shortage of 149 million ounces in 2025 due to limited mine production increases and low recycling rates [4] - **Demand**: Central banks, especially the Chinese central bank, have resumed increasing their gold holdings, and it is expected that funds from central banks will continue to flow in. The demand from central banks is expected to support gold prices [3][45] Asset Attributes - **Monetary Attribute**: The weakening of the dollar index and the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates support the rise of precious metals [3][15] - **Financial Attribute**: The increase in the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates and the central banks' gold - buying behavior are positive for gold prices [3][17] - **Commodity Attribute**: The gold SPDR持仓量 increased slightly, and the silver SLV持仓量 changed little. The silver market is in short supply, and the inventory situation of gold and silver varies [3][4][46] Operation Suggestions - **Gold**: In the short term, supported by geopolitical risks, the trend is strong. In the long - term, the positive logic remains unchanged. If there is a correction to the lower integer pressure level, one can consider building long - term positions through the option ratio spread structure [3] - **Silver**: After breaking through a new high this week, it entered an adjustment phase. In the short term, there is still a supplementary increase structure. In the medium - term, pay attention to the balance between the safe - haven attribute and industrial demand under the Middle East conflict. Long positions in silver can use the bear spread structure to hedge against correction risks. If the short - term volatility and price continue to rise significantly, one can build a call option selling position above to lock in profits [4] Other Key Information - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: As the price of gold rose this week, the gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly. If the gold - silver ratio drops significantly in the short term, one can consider going long [70]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced a significant surge, with spot silver prices rising over 5% in a single day, reaching a three-month high of $34.78 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and industrial demand [1][3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Escalating geopolitical risks, particularly the attack by Ukraine on Russian airbases, and renewed trade tensions due to potential tariff increases by the Trump administration, have heightened market anxiety, prompting a shift towards safe-haven assets like silver [3]. - U.S. economic data, including a drop in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.5 and a decline in export orders to a record low of 40.1, further fueled the demand for safe-haven assets [3]. Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply Dynamics - Silver's industrial demand is projected to reach 22,110 tons in 2024, accounting for 58% of total demand, driven by sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [4]. - A tightening supply forecast indicates a growing supply deficit, expected to expand from 6,003 tons in 2024 to 7,248 tons by 2027, providing strong support for silver prices [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Trends - The surge in silver prices has led to a significant increase in trading volume, with a 120% rise in silver trading and a notable spike in investor inquiries [1][3]. - The iShares Silver Trust saw a record single-day increase in holdings, and silver-related stocks in the A-share market experienced substantial gains, indicating heightened investor interest [7]. - Volatility in the futures market has surged, with a 30-day volatility reaching 58%, and a significant increase in bullish sentiment reflected in the options market [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is a key focus, as stronger-than-expected results could dampen expectations for interest rate cuts, potentially leading to a price correction in silver [8][10]. - Despite short-term volatility risks, the long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of a doubling in silver prices by year-end due to persistent supply shortages and structural growth in industrial demand [8][10].

美国银行分析指出，经历多年需求萎缩后，中国铂金首饰市场显现复苏迹象。4月中国铂金进口量达 11.5公吨，创下近一年来单月最高纪录。该机构认为，在金价持续走高的背景下，珠宝商正加速产品组 合多元化，这一趋势可能重塑全球铂金需求格局。 截至周一收盘，6月交割的COMEX黄金期货小幅上涨0.3%，报3332.10美元/盎司;白银期货涨幅达 1.8%，收于36.68美元/盎司。但今年以来，铂金以32%的涨幅大幅跑赢黄金(26%)和白银(26%)，成为贵 金属板块最大亮点。 在贸易谈判进展与供需基本面双重驱动下，贵金属市场波动或将加剧。投资者需持续关注中美谈判细 节、中国实物需求变化及全球制造业复苏对工业贵金属需求的拉动效应。 智通财经APP获悉，受市场对中美贸易谈判进展的高度关注影响，贵金属市场周一呈现分化走势：在美 元走弱的支撑下，黄金价格小幅攀升，但铂金表现尤为抢眼，单日涨幅达7.8%，收盘价飙升至每盎司 1225.70美元，创下2021年5月以来新高。这已是铂金连续第二周大幅上扬，上周累计涨幅已达10%。 尽管地缘政治不确定性仍存，但部分分析师指出，市场对中美两大经济体或将在谈判中达成阶段性协议 的预期升温，可 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the context of strong demand growth, insufficient supply release, and a long - term bullish trend in gold, geopolitical crises, continuous central bank gold purchases, a loose monetary environment, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit support the long - term strength of gold prices. The report maintains that gold is expected to reach a high of $3,800 - $4,000 per ounce this year, corresponding to a RMB price of 880 - 930 yuan per gram. For silver, it is expected to break through 10,000 yuan per kilogram this year, with the US silver above $42 per ounce. Investors can buy long positions in gold and silver on dips [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Aspects Silver Market Demand - Silver is the core material for photovoltaic cell conductive paste, with about 80 tons of silver consumed per 1GW of photovoltaic installed capacity. In 2024, global new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 600GW, and the demand for silver paste increased by over 25% year - on - year. In 2025, global photovoltaic installed capacity continued to grow steadily, leading to a rapid increase in the industrial demand for silver. It is predicted that global photovoltaic installed capacity will increase from 390GW in 2023 to 1000GW in 2030. In 2024, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 277.57GW, maintaining its global leading position and strongly supporting domestic silver demand. Additionally, the semiconductor industry, servers, and high - performance chips also show a surging demand for silver conduction [5]. Supply - 70% of global silver is a by - product of copper, lead, and zinc mines. Affected by the low prices of base metals, global silver production has declined in recent years. In 2024, global silver production was 25,000 tons, a 2% year - on - year decline. The contraction in supply has led to a 45% decline in the London Bullion Market Association's silver inventory over the past three years to 26,000 tons, only enough to cover 5 months of industrial demand [8]. Price Influence - Silver has both industrial and precious metal attributes and is affected by gold prices. The current domestic "silver/gold" ratio is around 11.2, which is in the undervalued area [11]. Geopolitical Factors - On June 1, 2025, the Russia - Ukraine conflict reached a historic turning point. Ukraine launched a special military operation, and Russia urgently initiated the deployment procedure of 300,000 - ton strategic nuclear weapons, casting a shadow of nuclear deterrence over Eurasia. In addition, the situations in India - Pakistan and the Middle East remain unstable, which drives up the prices of precious metals [14]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in April 2025, which was the sixth consecutive month of gold purchases since November 2024. Since November 2022, the central bank has restarted gold purchases, buying 62.21 tons in 2022, 224.88 tons in 2023, 44.17 tons in 2024, and 14.9 tons in the first four months of 2025. As of the end of April, the central bank held 2,295 tons of gold, indicating the substitution demand for US dollar assets and the official recognition of the long - term value of gold [15]. Monetary Policy - On May 15, 2025, the People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, injecting about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity into the market. This was the second reserve requirement ratio cut since September 2024. Since 2021, China has been in a cycle of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the interest rate level has been declining. In addition, the monetary policies of major economies such as Europe and the United States are also becoming more accommodative. The Federal Reserve entered an interest rate cut cycle in December 2023, and there is still an expectation of several interest rate cuts this year. Europe is also in a long - term interest rate cut cycle. The global loose monetary environment remains unchanged, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by major economies will further push up the price of gold [18][20]. US Dollar and Gold - The US federal government debt reached $37 trillion in May 2025, up from $36 trillion in November 2024, with the debt scale expanding at an accelerating pace. The Federal Reserve's continuous bond purchases have led to currency over - issuance, weakening the US dollar's purchasing power in the long run. When the US dollar's credit is damaged, gold, as a non - credit currency, is often favored. The US dollar is likely to enter a long - term depreciation channel, and gold will benefit from the currency substitution demand. Recently, the US dollar index has continued to decline, falling below 110 since January [22][23]. Gold Price Technical Analysis - Technically, the gold price is still supported by the support line. Every "pullback" is supported by the strong support line, and May was no exception. Now, gold has returned to the upward price trend [24].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, driven by geopolitical tensions and industrial demand, with recent developments indicating a potential for further price increases in the coming years [2][3][6]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Reactions - On June 5, silver prices experienced a sharp increase, with London silver reaching $36.053 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012 [3]. - The announcement by the Trump administration to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum has led to heightened speculation that similar measures may be applied to other metals, including silver, thus increasing its demand as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Silver futures saw a significant increase in long positions, with total holdings rising by $2.8 billion, the largest two-day increase in the past year [5]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Demand - The recent economic uncertainty, highlighted by a contraction in U.S. service sector activity and slowing job growth, has led to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals like silver [3][6]. - Industrial demand for silver remains strong, particularly in clean energy technologies, with the silver market facing a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [3][6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Considerations - Analysts predict that the price gap between silver and gold may narrow from the current 27 percentage points to 10-15 percentage points over the next 1-2 years, driven by various economic factors [6][7]. - The current gold-silver ratio is significantly higher than historical averages, suggesting that silver may be undervalued relative to gold, which could attract investors and drive prices higher [6][7].

【铝】 隔夜沪铝偏弱震荡。近期铝市库存顺畅去库至低位，强现实局面维持，不过六月需求面临季节性转 淡和贸易摩擦的考验，沪铝在前期缺口20300元关键位置仍面临阻力，考虑逢高偏空参与。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 (原油) 隔夜国际油价小幅收涨，布伦特07合约涨1.07%。昨日第39届0PEC+部长级会议宣布维持25-26年产 量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定2027年产量基线，5月31日自愿减产8国的快速增 产指引仍令市场担忧。昨日利比亚东部政府表示可能宣布油田和港口的不可抗力，尽管遭到利比亚 国家石油公司否认,相关供应风险仍对市场构成支撑。上周API美原油库存超预期下降423.6万桶, 关注今晚EIA库存结果。原油总体仍存OPEC+增产压力与供应风险并存的震荡期，关注供应风险明朗 后的再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属回落。美国国际贸易法院阻止美国总统特朗普的"解放日"关税生效,裁定特朗普征收 全面关税属于越权行为。特朗普政府将提起上诉，最终结果仍有待观望。美联储会议纪要显示由于 经济不确定性加剧,失业率和通胀率上升的风险增加,决策者观望的政策立场不应改 ...