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美委地缘政治风险骤升,全球避险资产与国防股齐涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 06:50
来源:中国青年报 中国青年报客户端讯(中青报·中青网记者 贾晓静)美国突袭委内瑞拉并抓捕其总统马杜罗的事件,在 新年伊始向市场注入了强烈的地缘政治风险。受此影响,避险资产需求激增,国际金价、银价大幅走 高,欧洲国防类股票也应声上涨。 当地时间2026年1月3日,美国纽约,民众在曼哈顿街头举行示威游行,抗议美国军队逮捕委内瑞拉总统 尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其夫人西莉亚·弗洛雷斯。视觉中国供图 来源:中国青年报客户端 市场交易数据显示,纽约商品交易所2月交割的黄金期货价格1月5日盘中一度飙升逾3%,3月交割的白 银期货价格涨幅更是一度超过7%。有分析人士认为,地缘政治不稳定将继续成为今年黄金等避险资产 价格走势的关键驱动因素。 虽然特朗普近日宣称将开发委内瑞拉石油资源,并表示美国将"管理这个国家直至实现审慎的政权过 渡",但行业专家向BBC表示,此举对全球能源价格的即时影响可能有限。专家指出,修复委内瑞拉已 衰败的石油基础设施需要投入数十亿美元和漫长的时间。 值得关注的是,地缘政治紧张局势也波及股市相应板块。由于投资者对美国行动作出快速反应,欧洲国 防类股票在1月5日大幅上扬。其中,英国航空航天系统公司股价上涨5%,德 ...
国际金价单日大涨近3%至4451.50美元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 06:37
来源:赛博AI实验室 本文基于以下微博话题的智搜结果生成 2026年1月5日,国际金价单日大涨近3%至4451.50美元/盎司,白银期货同步暴涨7.94%至76.657美元/盎 司,地缘冲突激化与美联储降息预期共振触发市场避险需求集中释放。 一、核心价格动态 关键数据 桶),动荡加剧原油供应不确定性。 货币政策预期转向 市场押注美联储2026年将降息约50基点,美元指数跌至三年低位,持有无息黄金的机会成本降低。全球 央行连续13个月增持黄金(2025年中国央行增持7412万盎司),实物买盘形成价格托底。 白银供需结构特殊性 白银兼具金融与工业属性: 黄金:纽约商品交易所(COMEX)黄金期货收盘价4451.50美元/盎司,单日涨幅2.82%;现货黄金突破 4400美元关口,日内最高触及4422美元/盎司。 白银:COMEX白银期货暴涨7.94%至76.657美元/盎司,单日涨幅创近期新高。 国内市场传导:周大福、老庙黄金等品牌足金首饰报价单日跳涨12-18元/克,突破1389元/克,部分定价 类金饰(如转运珠)涨幅达200-1500元。 二、上涨核心动因 地缘政治风险激化避险情绪 美国1月3日对委内瑞拉发起军 ...
光大期货0106热点追踪(股指):上证指数再创十年高点,股指是“真突破”还是“假热闹”?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 05:38
热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 继昨日A股实现新年"开门红"行情,1月6日沪指再次刷新十年高点,盘中涨幅接近1%。现货指数出 现"破顶",沪深300、上证50、中证500、中证1000均刷新2025年高点,市场表现价涨量增。行业板块出 现普涨行情,保险、券商"大象起舞"拉动上证50指数站稳3100点,内外盘科技板块同步上涨,脑机接 口、半导体等大幅领涨,叠加贵金属、有色受地缘事件影响延续涨势,中证500和中证1000涨幅居前。 资金来看,昨日两市全天成交2.55万亿,大幅放量5011亿,另外近期人民币不断升值,后续或持续吸引 外资流入。接下来进入年报披露期,持续关注高成长的大科技成长板块,股指短期或偏强震荡。 行业政策持续加码,昨日政策端印发《关于实施绿色消费推进行动的通知》,加快消费模式绿色转型, 在大宗商品消费方面,提及做强汽车产业链,支持发展房车露营、汽车影院、自驾游等新型消费。宏观 方面,短期关注货币政策和财政政策是否进一步宽松。整体来看,春季躁动行情仍需要一定的条件,对 小盘指数而言,需要政策边际放宽流动性;对大盘而言,需要通胀预期的持续改善。 热点栏目 自选股 数 ...
强势拉升!狂掀涨停潮!
中国基金报· 2026-01-06 04:37
Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on January 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% to reach a ten-year high, closing at 4069.38, up 1.14% [2][3] - The trading volume reached 1.80 trillion CNY, with a predicted total of 2.82 trillion CNY, an increase of 249.7 billion CNY [3] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals, chemical, and large financial sectors experienced strong upward movements, while sectors like communication equipment and motorcycles saw significant declines [4][16] - The non-ferrous metals sector, particularly copper and aluminum, led the gains, with Zijin Mining's stock price rising over 6%, reaching a historical high and a market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion CNY [9][11] Chemical Sector Insights - The chemical sector also saw a notable rise, particularly in the salt chemical segment, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [17] - PVC futures rose over 3% in a single day, accumulating a rise of over 15% since mid-December [19] - Wanhua Chemical announced price increases for core products starting December 2025, aligning with international giants like BASF and Dow, driven by rising raw material costs [20] Notable Stocks - Zhite New Materials surged by 20%, while other stocks like Liyuan Co., Chang Aluminum, and Anning Co. also hit the daily limit [11] - In the chemical sector, stocks such as Dongyue Yicai and Chlor-Alkali Chemical saw increases of over 10% [18] Precious Metals Market - Domestic precious metals futures continued to rise, with silver and platinum contracts increasing by over 7% [13] - The price of gold jewelry in China rose to 1390 CNY per gram, an increase of 12 CNY from the previous day [13]
A股喜迎2026“开门红”:沪指站上4000点,创近33年最长连阳纪录
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 04:37
来源:原点新财经 上证指数收报4023.42点,实现自去年12月17日以来的连续12个交易日上涨,全市场超4100只个股上涨,成交额激增超5000亿元。 2026年首个交易日,A股市场迎来"开门红",上证指数上涨1.38%,收于4023.42点,重回4000点上方。这已是该指数自2025年12月17日以来连续第12个交易 日上涨,创下近33年来的最长连阳纪录。 与此同时,深证成指上涨2.24%,创业板指上涨2.85%,三大指数集体飘红。市场交易活跃,沪深北三市成交额达到25672亿元,较前一交易日放量5015亿 元。 市场普涨 新年首个交易日,A股市场呈现普涨格局。全市场超过4100只个股上涨,120余只个股涨停。 行业板块方面,保险、半导体、贵金属、医疗器械、游戏等板块领涨。尤为引人注目的是脑机接口概念股,博拓生物、三博脑科、伟思医疗等10余只个股涨 停。 这一行情爆发得到了外围市场的呼应。在元旦假期A股休市期间,香港股市已先行预热。 1月2日,香港恒生指数上涨707.93点,涨幅达2.76%。恒生科技指数表现更为强劲,涨幅一度超过4%。 国家统计局最新发布的数据显示,2025年12月份中国制造业采购经理指 ...
异动盘点0106 |内险股延续涨势, 不同集团反弹超34%;美国大型银行股走高,Datavault AI暴涨42.57%
贝塔投资智库· 2026-01-06 04:00
Group 1: Insurance Sector - The insurance sector continues to rise, with China Ping An (02318) up 5.17%, New China Life (01336) up 4.14%, China Life (02628) up 4.83%, and China Pacific Insurance (02601) up 3.29%. The National Financial Regulatory Administration reported that the insurance industry achieved a total premium income of 57,629 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% for the first 11 months of 2025 [1][2]. Group 2: Hydrogen Energy - Guofu Hydrogen Energy (02582) saw a rise of over 7.2% after announcing the delivery of a total of 424 sets of vehicle-mounted high-pressure hydrogen supply systems to clients, which will be used in fuel cell buses in Guangzhou [1]. Group 3: Coal Sector - Coal stocks collectively rose, with China Coal Energy (01898) up 4.33%, Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) up 3.18%, and China Shenhua Energy (01088) up 2.31%. Since late November, port thermal coal prices have been on a downward trend, dropping from a high of 834 yuan/ton to a low of 670 yuan/ton, before rebounding on December 31, increasing by 8 yuan/ton to 678 yuan/ton [1]. Group 4: Solar Energy and AI - Junda Co., Ltd. (02865) increased by over 6.1% following a report from Guotai Junan that Elon Musk proposed a plan to deploy 100GW of solar AI satellites annually, driving demand for space photovoltaic technology [1]. Group 5: Lithium Mining - Lithium stocks were active, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 4.22% and Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 2.85%. After breaking through the 130,000 yuan/ton mark, lithium carbonate futures surged over 8%, reaching a high of 137,760 yuan/ton [2]. Group 6: Real Estate Sector - Domestic real estate stocks continued to rise, with Beike-W (02423) up 3.44%, Longfor Group (00960) up 5.24%, China Jinmao (00817) up 5.34%, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.64%. An article published in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need to improve and stabilize expectations in the real estate market [2]. Group 7: Baby Products - Different Group (06090) rebounded by over 34.99%. According to a report from China Merchants Securities, the company is positioned as a mid-to-high-end baby products brand with strong product development and channel expansion capabilities, targeting middle-class and high-net-worth consumers [3]. Group 8: Mining Sector - Zijin Mining (02899) rose nearly 6%, reaching a historical high. The company recently announced an annual profit forecast of 51 to 52 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 18.9 to 19.9 billion yuan compared to the previous year's profit of 32.051 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of about 59% to 62% [3]. Group 9: U.S. Stock Market - The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through 49,000 points, rising 1.3%, with major U.S. bank stocks reaching historical highs. Goldman Sachs (GS.US) rose 3.73%, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) rose 2.63%, and Morgan Stanley (MS.US) rose 2.55%. The U.S. ISM reported that the manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 in December, below the expected 48.4 [4]. Group 10: Precious Metals - U.S. precious metal stocks collectively strengthened, with Hecla Mining (HL.US) up 4.56% and Barrick Gold (B.US) up 3.77%. Spot gold surged 2.5%, reclaiming the $4,400 mark, while spot silver rose 5%, surpassing $76 [4]. Group 11: AI and Technology - Datavault AI (DVLT.US) surged 42.57%, with a cumulative increase of 180% over three trading days after signing a procurement agreement with AP Global Holdings LLC for infrastructure and cybersecurity services [5]. Group 12: Bitcoin and Related Stocks - Bitcoin briefly reached the $93,000 mark, with related stocks rising, including Strategy (MSTR.US) up 4.81% and Coinbase (COIN.US) up 7.77% [6]. Group 13: Oil Sector - Oil stocks saw significant pre-market gains, with Chevron (CVX.US) up 5.1% and ConocoPhillips (COP.US) up 2.59%. Reports indicated that the U.S. had captured Venezuelan President Maduro through military action, leading to a strong performance in oil and gas services [7].
午评:沪指半日涨1.14% 保险板块涨幅居前
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2026-01-06 03:46
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% in early trading, indicating positive investor sentiment despite some sector declines [1]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4069.38 points, up 1.14% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13940.24 points, up 0.81% - The ChiNext Index closed at 3293.18 points, down 0.04% [1]. Sector Performance Top Performing Sectors - Insurance sector increased by 4.91% with a total trading volume of 292.22 million hands and a net inflow of 15.55 billion - Small metals sector rose by 4.67% with a trading volume of 954.96 million hands and a net inflow of 37.26 billion - Energy metals sector gained 3.72% with a trading volume of 384.15 million hands and a net inflow of 18.67 billion [2]. Underperforming Sectors - Communication equipment sector decreased by 0.68% with a trading volume of 1889.06 million hands and a net outflow of 77.51 billion - Components sector fell by 0.65% with a trading volume of 929.90 million hands and a net outflow of 31.50 billion - Beauty care sector declined by 0.25% with a trading volume of 157.47 million hands and a net outflow of 0.42 billion [2].
避险诉求或驱动贵金属价格上涨 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2026-01-06 03:16
Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals sector is experiencing a correction due to the CME raising margin requirements, leading to a decrease in speculative sentiment and a drop in prices for silver, platinum, and palladium, with gold also following suit [1] - Short-term outlook remains positive for precious metals, driven by potential political events in the Americas around New Year's that may trigger safe-haven demand, alongside inflows into ETFs due to interest rate cuts [1] - Long-term view suggests that the process of de-dollarization will continue, and investors are encouraged to hold positions despite market volatility [1] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices have risen, with a supply-demand tightness expected in 2026 due to lowered production forecasts from Freeport and Teck Resources, alongside anticipated increases in U.S. government spending [2] - The recommendation is to buy on dips, as current adjustments in copper prices present buying opportunities [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from the implementation of a national subsidy plan in 2026, which aims to stimulate demand for consumer goods [2] - Supply disruptions are anticipated due to maintenance at the Mozal aluminum plant, while demand is constrained by high prices and environmental production limits [2] - Overall, the recommendation is to buy aluminum and aluminum equities on dips, given the expected supply disturbances and potential demand growth [2] Group 4: Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased across the board, with significant rises in electrolytic cobalt and other cobalt products due to tight supply conditions and increased trading activity [3] - The domestic raw material supply remains structurally tight, providing solid support for prices [3] Group 5: Lithium - Lithium prices have surged, driven by favorable signals from domestic new energy vehicle subsidies and anticipated production resumption from major suppliers [3] - The recommendation is to buy on dips, as the market is expected to maintain a downward inventory trend amid stable demand [3] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Xingye Silver Tin, Xiyu Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, New Jinlu, Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Zhongkuang Resources, Shengda Resources, Chifeng Gold, Zijin Gold International, Zhaojin Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [4]
日度策略参考-20260106
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:51
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].
格林大华期货早盘提示:贵金属-20260106
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:50
Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold and silver in the precious metals sector is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified, and investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 3.00% to $4459.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.74% to $76.51 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.93% at 1001.6 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed up 3.17% at 18,745 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of January 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 1065.13 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 90.54 tons from the previous day to 16,353.60 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 18.3%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 81.7%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 43.2%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 49.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 7.2% [1] - The US December ISM manufacturing index fell slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, and the index has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months [1] Market Logic - The December meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve showed that FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials had serious differences. The decision - making process reflected the dependence of the future interest - rate cut rhythm on economic data and differences in policy paths. The market's expectation for a Fed rate cut in January next year has remained below 20% [1] - The CME Group raised the margin requirements for precious metals for the second time within a week, increasing the performance margins for gold and silver futures after the close on December 31, reflecting the exchange's deep concern about the abnormal volatility of the current precious metals market [1] - Starting from January 8, the annual weight reset of the Bloomberg Commodity Index will lead to the sale of more than $6 billion in gold futures and more than $5 billion in silver futures within a five - day roll - over window [1] - On January 5, the US dollar index fell 0.13% to 98.33. On January 3, the US attacked Venezuela, amplifying geopolitical risks. COMEX gold and COMEX silver both rose sharply on January 5 [1] Trading Strategy - Due to increased short - term volatility of precious metals, investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2]