Core Viewpoint - The silicon material prices have been below production costs for over five consecutive quarters, and the industry chain is looking for a breakthrough in silicon material prices to alleviate losses [1]. Price Trends - As of July 16, the price range for multi-crystalline silicon N-type recycled material is between 40,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 41,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.4% [2]. - The N-type granular silicon price range is between 40,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 41,000 yuan per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [2]. - The recent increase in transaction volume indicates a shift from a previously cautious attitude among downstream silicon wafer companies [2]. Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a price differentiation, with a price gap of 9,000 yuan per ton for recycled materials, influenced by factors such as self-sufficient power plants and varying operational rates among large manufacturers [3]. - The overall trend suggests that the average transaction price for silicon materials is expected to rise steadily, driven by cost pressures and procurement strategies from downstream companies [3]. Production and Inventory - The silicon material sector needs to clear inventory and maintain production based on sales to avoid losses, with July production expected to be around 105,000 tons and a slight increase to 110,000 tons in August [4]. - The demand from the downstream sector is expected to remain stable at around 110,000 tons per month, indicating no immediate pressure for new inventory [4]. Futures Market - The multi-crystalline silicon futures market has seen significant gains, with the main contract price rising by 5.5% on July 10, reaching 41,345 yuan per ton, marking a three-month high [4]. - Regulatory measures have been introduced to manage market risks following the surge in futures prices [4]. Industry Outlook - If the expected capacity exit policies are implemented, the price could potentially reach 45,000 yuan per ton, contingent on various factors aligning [5]. - The actual strengthening of prices may depend on the operational status of downstream silicon wafer companies, which may face production halts due to high raw material costs [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The rumor of Powell's dismissal caused market turmoil, with the stock market initially falling and then rising, the dollar and bond yields dropping, and gold prices rising. Trump denied the rumor but hinted that dismissal could be possible under justifiable reasons [8][23]. - The market is paying attention to various commodities. For example, polysilicon may see its futures price hit new highs due to policy expectations, while styrene remains a short - allocation target. Natural rubber can be considered for long positions on dips due to weather disturbances, and cotton futures are technically strong but face some upward - limiting factors [9][11][12][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver to break through and rise. The trend intensities for gold and silver are both 1. The rumor of Powell's dismissal led to a rise in gold prices [17][23][25]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0. Macro events include the Powell dismissal rumor, and micro events involve mining investments and import data [17][27][29]. - **Zinc**: It is under pressure. The trend intensity is - 1. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's potential response are the main news [17][30][31]. - **Lead**: There may be a limit to its downside. The trend intensity is 0. Trump's tariff plans and the EU's response are the key news [17][33][34]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening. The trend intensity is - 1. The market is affected by macro events such as the Powell dismissal rumor and Trump's tariff plans [17][36][39]. - **Aluminum**: It faces upward pressure. Alumina requires attention on the impact of the ore end, and cast aluminum alloy oscillates within a range. The trend intensities for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are 0, - 1, and 0 respectively [17][40][41]. - **Nickel**: News affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and the macro situation. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are news about nickel supply and production in Canada, Indonesia, etc. [17][42][46]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Lithium - For lithium carbonate, the warehouse receipts continue to decline, and attention should be paid to substantial changes in supply. The trend intensity is 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has increased, and the new energy vehicle market shows certain trends [17][47][50]. 3.2.2 Silicon - related - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and attention should be paid to the upward space. Polysilicon: Market news continues to ferment. The trend intensities for both are 1. The US has launched a national security investigation on polysilicon imports [17][51][53]. 3.2.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0. The Central Urban Work Conference is an important macro event [17][54]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are data on steel production, exports, and inventory [17][56][60]. - **Silicon - based Alloys (Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon)**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price and production - related news [17][61][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities for both are 0. There are price, inventory, and position - related data [17][65][67]. 3.2.4 Energy - **Thermal Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend intensity is 0. There are price and position - related data [17][69][72]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The futures price has reached a new high for the year. It is technically strong in the short term, but factors such as poor downstream profits and new cotton harvest expectations may limit the upward movement. The trend intensity is not explicitly stated [14][17][20]. - **Natural Rubber**: Due to weather disturbances, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. The supply in Thailand is affected by rain, and the domestic production areas are also affected by weather to some extent [12][13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Core Viewpoint - The short-term price increase of silicon materials is clear, but the supply-demand imbalance in the market has not fundamentally improved [1][4] Group 1: Price Trends - The recent price for multi-crystalline silicon N-type recycled material ranges from 40,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average increase of 12.4% week-on-week [1] - N-type granular silicon prices range from 40,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average increase of 15.2% week-on-week [1] - The trading activity has significantly increased, with about six companies reaching new orders, leading to a substantial rise in overall transaction volume [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Price differentiation is observed, with some companies benefiting from self-supplied power plants allowing them to sell at lower prices, while larger firms face higher costs due to insufficient operating rates [2] - The market anticipates that the current price differentiation, with a gap of 9,000 yuan per ton for recycled materials, may not be sustainable, and the average transaction price for silicon materials is expected to rise steadily [2] - The production plan for July is estimated at around 105,000 tons, with a slight increase to 110,000 tons in August, aligning with the downstream demand of approximately 110,000 tons per month, indicating no immediate pressure for new inventory [2] Group 3: Futures Market - The futures market for multi-crystalline silicon has also seen significant gains, with the main contract price rising by 5.5% to close at 41,345 yuan per ton, reaching a three-month high [2] - The trading exchange has implemented measures to cool down the heated futures market, adjusting the price fluctuation limit to 9% and increasing margin requirements [3] - The potential for price increases in the futures market is linked to the expected implementation of capacity exit policies in the silicon industry, which could open up further price space [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in multi-crystalline silicon transaction orders indicates a stabilization in price trends, despite weak fundamental support in supply and demand [1] Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 40,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.4% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 40,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 41,000 yuan per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [1] Market Outlook - Despite the recent price increases, the fundamental support for multi-crystalline silicon remains weak, and there has not been a substantial improvement in supply and demand [1] - In the short term, silicon material prices are expected to maintain a slight upward trend while remaining in a state of observation and minor fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent 232 investigations by the U.S. extend from upstream basic materials to downstream high-tech applications and derivatives, indicating a need for vigilance in the industry [1] Group 1: Investigations Overview - The U.S. has initiated two new 232 investigations concerning "drone systems and their components" and "polysilicon and its derivatives," which began on July 1 and are currently in the public comment phase [2][3] - The investigations aim to assess the impact of these products on national security, focusing on domestic production capabilities and foreign supply chain roles [3] Group 2: Industry Implications - The products under investigation lack comparative advantages in the U.S. market, suggesting that imposing tariffs could harm domestic supply chains [1][3] - The investigations are seen as a pretext for implementing protective tariffs to promote domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign imports [3][5] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Previous 232 investigations, such as those on steel and aluminum, followed a similar logic, where the U.S. established strategic importance for certain products and quantified the national security threats posed by imports [5][6] - The U.S. is likely to continue favoring tariff measures as a means of addressing perceived national security threats in various industries [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not contain information about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, the overall production of polysilicon enterprises increases, with some enterprises increasing production while others undergoing maintenance, and self - disciplined production cuts do not significantly affect capacity fluctuations [2] - On the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declines significantly, but prices gradually recover. Downstream photovoltaic module production scheduling has been adjusted down, and demand weakens marginally. Silicon wafer enterprises are expected to end the decline in overall production as profits stabilize, and cell manufacturers also have production cut plans [2] - Overall, the demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. Although the polysilicon price increase last week gave most manufacturers a chance to turn losses into profits, this is not normal, and most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level [2] - Polysilicon continues to rise today, with the overall open interest starting to decline and trading volume slowing down. The short - term speculative market is expected to end, and it is advisable to buy put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 42,945 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 475 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 71,783 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,962 lots; the price difference between August - September polysilicon is 350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 34,260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 575 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 45,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the basis of polysilicon is 3,030 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 705 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.72 US dollars/kg [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,685 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; industrial silicon production is 305,200 tons per month, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Polysilicon production is 95,000 tons per month, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons; the import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons per month, a month - on - month decrease of 161 tons; the spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.04 US dollars/kg per week, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 US dollars/kg; the average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,190 US dollars/ton per month, a month - on - month decrease of 140 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Solar cell production is 7.0569 million kilowatts per month, a month - on - month decrease of 135,900 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 RMB/W; the export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 units per month, a month - on - month increase of 19,610,660 units; the import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 units per month, a month - on - month decrease of 8,021,950 units; the average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars per unit, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 US dollars per unit [2] 3.6 Industry News - Qingdao aims to build a 10 - million - kilowatt - level offshore new energy base by 2030, including developing offshore wind power and photovoltaic projects and promoting the development of the hydrogen energy industry [2] - At the State Council Information Office press conference, it was mentioned that consumption policies will continue to be strengthened in the second half of the year, and prices will rise moderately at a low level [2]

Group 1 - The main contract for polysilicon futures experienced fluctuations, reaching a peak of 43,250.0 yuan, and closed at 42,945.0 yuan with a rise of 1.50% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future of polysilicon prices, with some expecting a potential correction while others maintain a bullish outlook [2] - The supply side of polysilicon shows an overall increase in production, but some companies are undergoing maintenance, leading to a mixed impact on capacity [2][3] Group 2 - The current macroeconomic environment shows a positive CPI and a weakening PPI, which may influence market expectations [2] - The demand side is under pressure due to reduced production schedules in downstream solar component manufacturing, despite recent price recoveries [2] - The operating rate for polysilicon in June was reported at 35.47%, with a year-on-year production decrease of 38% but a month-on-month increase of 3% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in polysilicon prices is driven by improved transaction activity, but the fundamental support for these price increases remains weak, indicating a potential for short-term fluctuations rather than sustained growth [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon this week is between 40,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.4% [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 40,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 41,000 yuan per ton, marking a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [1]. - The overall transaction volume has significantly increased this week, with around six companies reaching new orders, indicating a notable improvement in market activity compared to the previous week [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Currently, there are nine domestic polysilicon producers, with three gradually resuming production, which will have a limited impact on July's supply, expected to be around 105,000 tons, with a slight increase to approximately 110,000 tons in August [2]. - The downstream demand for polysilicon is expected to remain stable at around 110,000 tons per month, with no new inventory pressure in the market [2]. - The price difference for recycled materials is as high as 9,000 yuan per ton, but this is unlikely to be sustainable due to cost pressures and the potential shift towards more price-attractive resources by downstream silicon wafer companies [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite the recent price increases, the fundamental support for polysilicon prices is weak, and the market is expected to experience slight fluctuations in the short term [3]. - A significant price increase may occur if downstream silicon wafer companies are forced to reduce production due to high raw material costs and low downstream prices, which could improve the supply-demand relationship [3]. - The polysilicon market is anticipated to gradually return to rational development as supply contracts and downstream acceptance improves, alongside better market expectations [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Glass and Soda Ash - Yesterday, the soda ash futures market sentiment weakened, with the 09 contract dropping about 30 points. Although the overall market sentiment had improved earlier, the supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains in surplus, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to watch for opportunities to short on rebounds [1]. - The glass futures market sentiment declined yesterday, while the spot market remained strong. Currently, it is the off - season, and the industry needs capacity clearance. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Logs - Yesterday, the log futures market fluctuated slightly stronger. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand due to the off - season for demand and seasonal reduction in supply from New Zealand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 150 - 200 yuan/ton, and the futures price rose by 90 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase. In the short - term, the price will fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline due to the increase in warehouse receipts [3]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price increased. There is still room for the futures price to catch up with the spot price. The market has a wait - and - see attitude, and there are both positive and negative factors. Attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [4]. Natural Rubber - The natural rubber price rebounded due to macro - sentiment, but the fundamental situation is still weak. It is recommended to short at the price range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to raw material supply and US tariff changes [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price and Spread - Glass: The prices in North China, East China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in Central China increased by 30 yuan/ton with a 2.80% increase. The 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased by 1.35% and 2.81% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 17.53% [1]. - Soda Ash: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased by 0.53% and 2.06% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 17.95% [1]. Supply - Soda ash: The operating rate and weekly output remained unchanged. The float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 2.87%, while soda ash factory inventory and delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2.98% and 4.39% respectively. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures: The 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts increased slightly, while the 2507 contract decreased slightly. The basis of the 09, 11, and 01 contracts decreased [2]. - Spot prices: The prices of most spot logs remained unchanged, except for a 1.39% decrease in the price of 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port [2]. Supply - Monthly supply: Port shipments increased by 2.12%, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 8.62% [2]. Inventory - Weekly inventory: The national inventory decreased by 0.31%, with a 1.66% decrease in Shandong and a 1.93% increase in Jiangsu [2]. Demand - Weekly demand: The daily average outbound volume decreased by 12% nationwide, with a 9% decrease in Shandong and a 14% decrease in Jiangsu [2]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - passed S15530 and Xinjiang 99 - grade industrial silicon increased, while the basis of some varieties decreased [3]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2508 - 2509, 2509 - 2510, and 2512 - 2601 increased significantly, while the spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased significantly [3]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national output and operating rate decreased, while the output and operating rate in Yunnan and Sichuan increased. In May, the output of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy increased [3]. Inventory Change - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 17.46%, and the social inventory decreased slightly. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.34% [3]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of N - type granular silicon decreased slightly, and the basis of N - type and cauliflower - type decreased [4]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract increased by 1.69%. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The output of silicon wafers and polysilicon decreased. Monthly: The polysilicon output increased, and the import and export volumes changed [4]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 1.47%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.67% [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The prices of some rubber varieties increased slightly, and the basis and non - standard spread changed [5]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.69%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 16.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the output in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the domestic tire output decreased slightly. The tire export volume increased [5]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory increased slightly, and the warehouse receipt inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly [5].