1. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures rebounded from a low level and showed a strong performance throughout the day, while the spot market was generally sluggish with some price cuts and slower shipments. The downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and there was no large - scale speculative restocking. Due to poor real - estate completion data, the market is pessimistic about glass consumption. With low production, weak consumption, high inventory, and short - term restocking unable to change the weak situation, attention should be paid to glass production line changes and real - estate data [1]. - Soda ash futures showed a weak and volatile trend with lower trading sentiment. The domestic soda ash price was weakly stable with flexible transaction prices. Enterprise production increased, especially for heavy soda ash, and inventory slightly decreased, but downstream demand was mainly rigid. With new production projects coming on stream, high supply pressure has reappeared, and attention should be paid to intermittent maintenance and new production of soda ash production lines [1]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - For silicomanganese, tariff fluctuations and poor off - season consumption expectations led to a collective decline in the black sector, with a 0.87% drop in silicomanganese futures. The spot market was weak, with prices in the north and south at 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton. Affected by industry profits, production is at a low level, although it has slightly rebounded week - on - week. With high pig iron production currently providing demand support but a strong expectation of a peak in pig iron production, high inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants are suppressing prices. Low - level and slightly rising manganese ore port inventory, along with falling manganese ore prices dragging down shipments, support alloy costs, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply side [3]. - Ferrosilicon futures followed the black sector and slightly declined. The spot market was weak with cautious operations. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton. With enterprises in losses, production has dropped to a near - historical low. High pig iron production maintains demand, but inventory reduction is weakening, downstream inventory is low, and production capacity is relatively abundant. Short - term prices are dragged down by costs, and attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies affecting the black sector [4]. 2. Strategy - Glass is expected to be in a volatile state, while soda ash is expected to be volatile and weak. There are no strategies for inter - delivery or inter - commodity trading [2]. - Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to be in a volatile state [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market remains stable overall, with slight fluctuations in certain regions, as supply increases slightly while demand remains cautious [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of May 26, the price range for light soda ash in East China is 1320-1590 CNY/ton, and for heavy soda ash, it is 1400-1500 CNY/ton. In North China, light soda ash is priced at 1400-1470 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1430-1520 CNY/ton [2][5]. Index Analysis - On May 26, the light soda ash price index was 1322.86, down 2.86 from the previous working day, a decrease of -0.22%. The heavy soda ash price index was 1365.71, also down 2.86, a decrease of -0.21% [3]. Futures Dynamics - On May 26, the main contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1251 CNY/ton and closed at 1254 CNY/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.34%. The highest price during the day was 1271 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1251 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,502,342 contracts, a decrease of 26,138 contracts [5]. Market Outlook - The soda ash market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with cautious trading. Supply has slightly increased due to the resumption of some production facilities, but downstream purchasing remains primarily based on immediate needs. The market sentiment is currently one of observation, with expectations of continued narrow fluctuations in the short term [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The supply has declined from a high level, and the terminal demand improvement is limited. Although the inventory has been continuously decreasing, it is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually resuming, supply has declined from a high level and is gradually stabilizing. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the soda ash plant inventory has decreased but is still at a historical high; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1300 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1254 yuan/ton, and the basis is 46 yuan, with the futures at a discount to the spot; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 167.68 tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash. The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress [4]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launching plans this year, with the industry output at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of downstream float glass for heavy - quality soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume is continuously decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1254 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1300 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 46 yuan. The closing price of the main contract has increased by 0.08% compared with the previous value, the price in Shahe has remained unchanged, and the basis has decreased by 2.13% [5]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of the joint - soda method for heavy - quality soda ash in East China is 188 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method for heavy - quality soda ash in North China is - 14.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production Volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 78.63%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 67.38 tons, of which the heavy - quality soda ash is 36 tons, and the production volume has declined from a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly - added capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production - launching of 60 tons [22]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production heavy - quality rate of soda ash is 54.23% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.67 tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% is continuously declining, with weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 167.68 tons, of which the heavy - quality soda ash is 84.40 tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [33]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash are presented in the table, showing different trends in different years [34].

| 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2011 ] 1292号 2025年5月26日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 8650 | 8650 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 735 | 770 | -35 | -4.55% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | a500 | 9500 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 785 | 820 | -35 | -4.27% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8050 | 8050 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 墓差(新疆) | ‍රි35 | 970 | -35 | -3.61% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2506-2507 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures continued to weaken in a volatile manner. The closing price of the main contract SA2509 decreased by 2.79% compared to the previous week, reaching 1253 yuan/ton. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1300 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from the previous week. Supply is expected to increase slightly in the near term, while demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average with low raw material reserve intention. With supply declining from a high level and weak demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1289 yuan/ton to 1253 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.79%. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1320 yuan/ton to 1300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52%. The main basis increased by 51.61% from 31 yuan/ton to 47 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market Conditions - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the dual - alkali process in East China was 188 yuan/ton, while the profit of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process in North China was - 14.60 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [17]. - **开工率、产能产量**: The weekly industry operating rate was 78.63% and is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly output was 67.38 tons, with heavy soda ash accounting for 36 tons, declining from a historical high. The weekly production heavy - soda ratio was 54.23% [21][23][26]. - **Industry Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly - added capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons. The planned newly - added capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 60 tons [27]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 105.30% [30]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.67 tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% continued to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output stabilized [33][36]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 167.68 tons, including 84.40 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level for the same period [39]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [40]. 6. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously decreasing, it is still at a high level for the same period. The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation. The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract in the day session was 1253 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1300 yuan/ton, and the main basis was 47 yuan, with a 38.24% increase compared to the previous value. The closing price of the main contract decreased by 2.57%, and the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 1.52% [5]. Factors Affecting Soda Ash Positive Factors - The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash. The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations has been made [4]. Negative Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period. The cold - repair of heavy - soda downstream float glass is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [11]. Soda Ash Production - The weekly production profit of heavy soda ash using the joint - alkali method in East China was 188 yuan/ton, and the profit using the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 14.60 yuan/ton, which is at a historical low in the same period [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 78.63%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize and rebound. The weekly output of soda ash was 67.38 tons, with heavy soda ash at 36 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been continuous production - launch plans for soda ash. In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity was 750 tons, with an actual production - launch of 60 tons [22]. Soda Ash Demand - The weekly production heavy - soda ratio of soda ash was 54.23% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.67 tons, and the operating rate continued to decline to 75.34%, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. Soda Ash Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 167.68 tons, of which heavy soda ash was 84.40 tons, and the inventory was at a historical high in the same period [33]. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of soda ash has fluctuated. In 2024E, the effective production capacity was 3930 tons, the output was 3650 tons, the operating rate was 78.20%, the net import was - 114 tons, the apparent supply was 3536 tons, the total demand was 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference was 157 tons [34].

| *业期现日报 | F미 【2011 1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纪元菲 | | | | | Z00T3180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | | 单位 | 市科 | 5月22日 | 5月21日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | | 8650 | 8700 | -50 | -0.57% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | | 770 | 832 | -65 | -7.78% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | | a200 | aeoo | -100 | -1.04% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | | 820 | વેડી | -115 | -12.30% | | | 新疆99硅 | | 8050 | 8100 | -20 | -0.62% | | | 基差(新疆) | | 970 | 1035 | -65 | -6.28% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | | 合约 | | 5月22日 | 5月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is cautious, and the black commodity market shows a weak and volatile trend [1]. - For glass and soda ash, the downstream procurement is cautious, with glass opening high and closing low, and soda ash showing a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - For silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, the supply side is frequently disturbed, with silicon - manganese rising strongly and silicon - iron moving in a volatile manner [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures opened high and closed low yesterday. The spot market had dull trading, and the downstream procurement sentiment was average. This week, the national weekly average price of float glass was 1,251 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.35 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The enterprise operating rate was 75.34%, an increase of 0.34%. The manufacturer's inventory was 67.769 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 0.46% [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures showed a narrow - range oscillation yesterday. The spot market demand was average, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. This week, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.63%, a decrease of 1.64%. The output was 663,800 tons, a decrease of 2.04%. The inventory was 1.6768 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: Recently, the glass output has slightly increased. Due to the insufficient recovery of real - estate and deep - processing demand, the restocking intensity and sustainability are weak. Although the glass inventory has slightly decreased, the de - stocking pressure is large, and the price lacks upward momentum. In the later high - temperature and rainy season, it is not conducive to glass storage, and enterprises may have a stronger intention to reduce prices for sales and inventory reduction [1]. - Soda Ash: Affected by the increase in alkali plant maintenance, the recent soda ash output has declined but remains in a loose state. Currently, the growth of the photovoltaic industry has slowed down, and the room for increasing soda ash demand is limited. The de - stocking pressure is still large. Attention should be paid to the summer maintenance of alkali plants and the progress of annual new - capacity production [1]. Strategy - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Weakly volatile [2] Silicon - Manganese and Silicon - Iron Market Analysis - Silicon - Manganese: The market oscillated upward yesterday, with an increase of 14,243 open positions and a rapid expansion of trading volume. In the spot market, the mainstream steel tenders started to quote, and the market enthusiasm was average. Factories basically stopped quoting. Affected by industry profits, the silicon - manganese output continued to decline and was at a low level in previous years. The hot - metal output declined from a high level, and the demand for silicon - manganese weakened. The silicon - manganese manufacturer's inventory and registered warrants were at a high level, suppressing the silicon - manganese price. However, considering that the manganese ore port inventory was at a low level, the continuous decline in manganese ore prices had dragged down shipments, which supported the alloy cost. Attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore in the later stage [3]. - Silicon - Iron: The silicon - iron futures moved in a volatile manner yesterday, with a decrease of 7,875 open positions. In the spot market, the silicon - iron market was weak, with mostly cautious operations and little change in transaction prices. Against the background of enterprise losses, the silicon - iron output remained at a medium - low level. The hot - metal output reached the peak and then declined, and the demand for silicon - iron began to weaken. The manufacturer's inventory continued to be depleted, and the downstream enterprise inventory remained at a low level. The silicon - iron production capacity was relatively loose, and the short - term price was dragged down by costs. Attention should be paid to the impact of electricity price changes and industrial policies on the black sector in the future [3]. Strategy - Silicon - Manganese: Volatile [4] - Silicon - Iron: Volatile [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 23, 2024 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, although supply has decreased and demand has rebounded, there is still inventory accumulation. The futures price lacks the impetus for continuous growth, and the price will re - enter the downward channel with a potentially weak and volatile trend on the market [8][9]. - For glass, supply has significantly declined, demand is in the traditional off - season, and the demand - boosting effect of policies is limited. The price trend will be weak and volatile in the short term [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data on May 22**: SA509 opened at 1284 yuan/ton, closed at 1286 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.54%, with a decrease of 24,595 lots in positions; SA601 closed at 1276 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.07%, with an increase of 3,943 lots in positions; FG509 closed at 1018 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.77%, with an increase of 64,371 lots in positions; FG601 closed at 1074 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.73%, with an increase of 6,554 lots in positions [7]. - **Soda Ash Market**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Central China was 1380 - 1480 yuan/ton, and that of light - quality soda ash was 1250 - 1380 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day. Weekly production dropped to 663,800 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate dropped to 78.63%. The shipment volume was 699,000 tons, a 4.81% week - on - week increase. The weekly inventory of heavy - quality soda ash was 860,000 tons, with a slight reduction [8]. - **Glass Market**: Glass production has dropped significantly to the level of late February, and there is a possibility of further decline. The glass market has entered the traditional off - season, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. Policy support has little effect on boosting demand, and the price will be weak and volatile [10][11]. 2. Industry News - In April 2025, China's soda ash exports were 170,600 tons, a decrease of 23,700 tons month - on - month, with an average export price of $189.13/ton. The cumulative export volume from January to April was 653,900 tons, a 112.02% increase year - on - year. Imports were 4,600 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons month - on - month, with an average import price of $216.79/ton. The cumulative import volume from January to April was 14,500 tons, a 97.58% decrease year - on - year [12]. - The market price of baking soda in Henan remained stable, with the mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade baking soda at 1180 - 1260 yuan/ton [12]. - The domestic float glass market had mixed price changes, with most prices remaining stable. In North China, prices were mostly stable with some minor increases, and the market trading atmosphere was average [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [17][18][16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂陆续公布检修计划，供给高位小幅下滑；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1320元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1288元/吨，基差为32元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存171.20万吨，较前一周增加0.63%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 一、纯碱期货行情 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯 ...