查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【金工】市场仍将震荡上行——金融工程市场跟踪周报20251229 上周A股延续震荡上涨，主要宽基指数量能皆有修复。资金面方面，周度融资增加额环比上期大幅增长，股票 型ETF资金净流入363.41亿元，资金表现积极。从近期市场表现来看，12月中央经济工作会议召开之后市场交 易情绪有所提振，资金面表现持续改善，为市场进一步上行奠定基础。风格方面，短线基本面因子表现持续占 优，后续或仍将延续。中长线看好"红利+科技"配置主线。 （祁嫣然/陈颖/张威）2025-12-29 点击注册小程序 2月中央经济工作会议再提深入整治"内卷式"竞争及深入推进重点行业节能降碳改造，12月底发改委强调继续 实施粗钢产量调控，我们认为中长期来看钢铁板块供给或将得到 ...

Group 1: Liquidity and Market Conditions - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index is at 47.15 for December 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 10.19% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.1 percentage points in November 2025, a month-on-month decrease of 1.10 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $4,533 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Weekly price changes include rebar at -1.20%, cement price index at -0.49%, rubber at +1.00%, coke at -3.40%, coking coal at -0.14%, and iron ore at -0.63% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates changed by +0.01 percentage points, -0.90 percentage points, and -2.3 percentage points respectively [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - The price of titanium dioxide increased by 0.77% week-on-week, while flat glass prices remained unchanged; the gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1,744 yuan per ton, and the operating rate for flat glass is 73.89% [6] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel at -0.51%, copper at +5.84%, and aluminum at +1.01%, with corresponding gross profit changes showing a turnaround to profit for some [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 72.05%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points [7] Group 5: Subcategory Prices - The price of tungsten concentrate reached a new high since 2012 at 460,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 6.35% week-on-week [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 19,000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 2,060.56 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.98% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22,060 yuan per ton, with a calculated profit of 4,918 yuan per ton (excluding tax), an increase of 6.72% [8] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.02 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 10 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 430 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton [10] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November is 47.60%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,146.67 points this week, an increase of 1.95% [11] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 75.30%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points [11] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.95%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being chemicals at +4.23% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 is 28.64% and 95.13% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector is 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [12]

柔性制造"千件千样"，数智转型降本增效；具身智能融入实体应用场景，低空经济开启天空"新赛 道"…… 习近平总书记指出："着眼发展新质生产力，强化科技创新和产业创新深度融合，建设具有国际竞争力 的现代化产业体系。" 产业强则经济强。"十四五"时期，我国传统产业高端化、智能化、绿色化加速推进，新质生产力蓄势成 长，现代化产业体系建设迈出坚实步伐。 全身拥有82个自由度，灵巧手1∶1复刻人手尺寸且有22个自由度……日前，小鹏汽车发布搭载3颗自研图 灵人工智能芯片的全新一代人形机器人，可实现对话、行走等功能。"我们的目标是2026年底实现新一 代人形机器人规模量产。"小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏表示。 "十四五"以来，低空经济"振翅高飞"，前沿材料"破茧成蝶"，载人航天"巡天揽月"……2024年，我国"三 新"经济增加值占国内生产总值比重约18%。 ——强基增效，现代化基础设施体系不断夯实。 今年前11月，我国快递业务量累计完成1807.4亿件。"快递送得越来越快了！"家住北京的王先生感叹， 头一天晚上8点下单，第二天早上6点，快递就送到了家门口。2020年至2024年，我国快递业务量年均增 长20%左右，服务时效性、服务质 ...

Group 1: New Quality Productive Forces - In 2025, China focuses on technological innovation and industrial upgrading to cultivate new quality productive forces, enhancing the foundation for high-quality development [2] - Traditional industries are crucial for accelerating the development of new quality productive forces, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology releasing action plans for ten key industries [2] - Strategic emerging industries and future industries are the main battlegrounds for cultivating new quality productive forces, with significant growth in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and quantum technology [2][3] Group 2: Expanding Domestic Demand - Expanding domestic demand is a strategic choice for China to respond to economic changes and promote high-quality development, with policies implemented to stimulate consumption and investment [4] - Consumer markets are recovering, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment, with year-on-year increases of 14.8%, 18.2%, and 20.9% respectively [6] - Investment in emerging sectors is also strong, with notable increases in manufacturing and renewable energy investments, such as a 15.3% growth in automotive manufacturing [6] Group 3: High-Level Opening Up - Expanding high-level opening up is essential for China's high-quality development, providing stability to the uncertain global economy [7] - China's foreign trade resilience is improving, with policies promoting service exports and green trade, reflecting a commitment to innovative leadership [7][8] - Trade with major partners like ASEAN has seen growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in trade volume [8] Group 4: Risk Mitigation - In 2025, China continues to address key risk areas to ensure high-quality development, with measures in place to manage local government debt and mitigate financial risks [9] - The real estate sector has seen successful completion of housing delivery tasks, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and supporting housing supply [9] Group 5: Appropriate Monetary Easing - Since 2025, a moderately loose monetary policy has been in effect, with social financing scale increasing significantly, reaching 33.39 trillion yuan in the first eleven months [10] - The structure of credit has improved, supporting key sectors and strategic economic transformations, with notable growth in technology and green loans [11] Group 6: Green Transition - China has introduced numerous policies for green low-carbon transition and ecological civilization construction, achieving significant progress in various fields [14] - The energy structure is shifting towards non-fossil sources, with ambitious targets for renewable energy installations [14][15] - The green economy is thriving, with over 218.7 million existing green economy-related enterprises, indicating sustained vitality in the sector [14]

再次，设立临时脱碳基金，用于缓解部分行业在过渡阶段面临的冲击。根据提案，对于仍存在较高碳泄 漏风险，且短期内难以完成深度脱碳的产品类别，欧盟将通过基金形式，对其在欧盟碳排放交易体系下 承担的部分成本给予有限补偿。但这一支持与企业所展示的明确脱碳努力直接挂钩。欧委会希望借此在 维持气候政策强度的同时，为欧洲本土产业争取必要的调整空间。 在提案发布后，欧委会执行副主席斯特凡·塞茹尔内强调，强化碳关税的根本目的在于"确保欧盟与非欧 盟工业生产者之间的公平竞争环境"，防止欧洲企业因承担更高的气候成本而在全球市场中处于不利地 位。负责气候事务的欧盟委员沃普克·胡克斯特拉也指出，碳关税是"欧盟实现2030气候目标和2050气候 中和战略的重要支柱"，并称新提案兼顾了环保目标与产业竞争力需求。 经历两年多的过渡后，欧盟计划于2026年1月1日起正式征收碳关税（全称为"碳边境调节机制"， CBAM）。作为全球首个以跨境贸易为载体、系统性引入碳成本的政策安排，碳关税相关举措逐步落地 将对国际贸易格局和全球气候政策产生重大影响。 在此背景下，欧盟委员会近期公布了一揽子针对碳关税的强化改革提案，试图在既有框架基础上进一步 补齐制度 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is the resolution of the third extraordinary general meeting of shareholders held by Hebei Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., which confirmed the approval of several proposals without any dissenting votes [1][2] - The meeting was held on December 29, 2025, with a combination of on-site and online voting, ensuring compliance with relevant laws and regulations [3][4] Group 2 - A total of 497 shareholders attended the meeting, representing 6,871,950,746 shares, which accounts for 66.4784% of the total voting shares [5] - Among the attending shareholders, 493 were small shareholders, representing 176,713,698 shares, or 1.7095% of the total voting shares [6] Group 3 - Proposal 1 regarding the expected daily related transactions for 2026 was approved with 142,089,324 votes in favor, representing 80.4065% of the valid votes [9] - Proposal 2 concerning the capital increase to the subsidiary Hebei Letin Steel Co., Ltd. was also approved with 140,552,820 votes in favor, accounting for 79.5370% of the valid votes [11] - Proposal 3, which involved amendments to the company's articles of association, received overwhelming support with 6,851,688,788 votes in favor, representing 99.7051% of the valid votes [13] Group 4 - The legal opinion provided by the law firm confirmed that the meeting's procedures and resolutions were in accordance with relevant laws and the company's articles of association, validating the legitimacy of the meeting [15]

摘要 人民币升值投资机会解读 20251229 人民币升值利好上游原材料行业（公用事业、有色金属、钢铁、能源化 工）和消费品行业（航空公司、免税业务），降低进口商品成本，提升 相关企业盈利能力。 人民币升值减轻了航空公司和房地产企业以美元计价的债务偿还压力， 尤其是航空公司通过汇兑收益直接增厚利润，房地产企业境外美元债偿 债压力降低。 人民币升值将提升人民币核心资产的估值，金融领域的银行和保险业， 以及港股市场中的恒生科技指数和恒生中国企业指数，可能因外资流入 而表现突出。 燃气板块受益于人民币升值，因燃气价格与美元计价的国际油价挂钩， 降低采购成本；而高股息火电板块受汇率影响较小，表现相对弱势。 航空业直接受益于飞机采购和租赁的汇兑收益，以及美联储降息带来的 融资成本降低；间接受益于美元计价运营成本的降低和出境游需求的刺 激。 人民币升值扩大了国内降息空间，有助于房地产市场企稳，并吸引外资 投资以人民币计价的大宗不动产，如商业办公和物流地产项目。 港股市场因人民币升值对外资吸引力增加而受益，尤其是科技板块，但 股价根本驱动因素仍是每股收益（EPS），流动性影响短期股价。 Q&A 人民币升值对哪些行业有显著影 ...

钢铁行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251229 摘要 钢铁行业盈利能力在 2024 年三季度触底，虽有阶段性恢复，但整体盈 利水平仍低于历史平均，2025 年盈利预期除二三季度部分月份外，其 余月份表现依旧不佳。 房地产领域钢材需求持续下滑至 2026 年，但降幅收窄；制造业和出口 成为需求增长新动力，尤其机械、家电、新能源等高端制造领域需求对 冲了地产下滑影响。 钢铁生产各环节（生铁、粗钢、钢材）增速及统计口径存在差异，导致 市场对原材料价格支撑力度判断不一；反内卷政策落地效果不一，影响 市场预期。 2026 年建筑链耗钢量趋于稳定，出口和制造业成为关键增长点；出口 许可证管理政策可能导致部分钢材回流国内，影响供给和库存；汇率稳 定对出口至关重要。 上游原材料（铁矿石、焦煤）价格挤压中游钢铁盈利空间，需关注上游 让利可能性，如西芒杜矿区投产及反内卷政策落地对成本的压制作用。 Q&A 钢铁行业在过去几年的表现如何？2025 年整体情况如何？ 钢铁行业自 2021 年达到高点后，经历了连续四年的单边下滑。2022 年至 2025 年，行业处于景气下跌、盈利空间逐步收窄的状态。尽管某些季度因反 内卷、阶段性减 ...

Economic Indicators - December economic conditions show a high likelihood of continued month-on-month weakening in macroeconomic performance[1] - The operating rate for asphalt enterprises increased to 31.3%, up by 3.7 percentage points month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 9.8%[8] - The capacity utilization rate for steel mills decreased to 85.52%, down by 0.21 percentage points month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 0.9%[43] Production and Supply - The average daily crude steel production in mid-December was 1.845 million tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from early December, with a year-on-year decline of 6.7%[71] - The production of cement was 9.454 million tons, down by 394,000 tons month-on-month, but up by 22.0% year-on-year[93] - The production of photovoltaic glass remained stable at 519,200 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 52.2%[98] Price Trends - The average price of cement in East China was 435 RMB/ton, down by 3 RMB/ton month-on-month, while the price in Southwest China remained unchanged at 512 RMB/ton[104] - The price index for rebar increased by 15 RMB/ton to 3326.2 RMB/ton[112] - The price of lithium carbonate rose to 113,600 RMB/ton, an increase of 12,800 RMB/ton month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 51.1%[136] Market Outlook - The real estate sales area in 30 cities reached 2.9 million square meters, the highest level in Q4, indicating a better performance compared to November[7] - The overall industrial sector did not show signs of aggressive production, and the export situation remained relatively stable, suggesting a need for macroeconomic policy support to stabilize the economic fundamentals in the first half of next year[1]

（原标题：阿联酋钢铁集团推进工业脱碳） 阿通社12月25日消息，阿联酋钢铁集团（EMSTEEL）与阿联酋核能公司（ENEC）达成合作，通 过采购经I-REC认证的清洁核电，推动钢铁生产脱碳。目前EMSTEEL钢铁业务86%、水泥业务14%已使 用清洁电力，目标是2030年实现100%清洁用电。ENEC旗下巴拉卡核电站年发电约40TWh，可满足全国 25%用电并年减排2240万吨碳。 ...