钢铁股早盘普遍上扬，截至发稿，马鞍山钢铁股份（00323）上涨3.50%，报2.66港元；重庆钢铁股份 （01053）上涨3.28%，报1.26港元；鞍钢股份（00347）上涨2.45%，报2.09港元；中国东方集团 （00581）上涨1.28%，报1.58港元。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 责任编辑：卢昱君 钢铁股早盘普遍上扬，截至发稿，马鞍山钢铁股份（00323）上涨3.50%，报2.66港元；重庆钢铁股份 （01053）上涨3.28%，报1.26港元；鞍钢股份（00347）上涨2.45%，报2.09港元；中国东方集团 （00581）上涨1.28%，报1.58港元。 责任编辑：卢昱君 ...

Group 1 - Jinan is actively promoting project construction and enterprise production during the Spring Festival, aiming for a strong start in the first quarter [1] - The Honglou urban renewal project, particularly the Darunfa site, has seen significant construction activity, with an average of over 130 workers daily from February 15 to 23, increasing to about 260 by February 26 [2] - The project has completed 250 tons of rebar tying, approximately 5000 square meters of formwork, and 120 cubic meters of concrete pouring during the holiday period, with a construction progress increase of about 10% [2] Group 2 - The Northeast site of the Full River project has also progressed, with an average of about 240 workers on site during the same period, expected to reach 350 by February 27 [3] - The project has completed the construction of the third basement level and achieved a 70% completion rate for the second basement level, with a 20% increase in progress during the Spring Festival [3] - The Jinan Airport Phase II expansion project has also resumed work with over 5000 builders returning to their posts, ensuring continuous production [3] Group 3 - Shandong Huijin Co., Ltd. resumed operations on the fourth day of the New Year, with all employees back to work, driven by strong demand for automotive parts, with export orders up by about 5% compared to the same period last year [4] - Shandong Furuida Biological Co., Ltd. has also started production early to prepare for promotional activities, indicating robust activity in the beauty sector [4] - Jinan's industrial sector is focusing on enhancing both quality and quantity, with clear targets set for various industries, including electronics, automotive, high-end software, and modern medicine [4]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 27 日 螺纹钢：震荡反复 热轧卷板：震荡反复 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,063 | 6 | 0.20 | | 期货 | HC2605 | 3,218 | 3 | 0.09 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 692,924 | 1,952,420 | -36,289 | | | HC2605 | 321,040 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 1,492,800 前日价格 （元/吨） | -8,403 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3210 | 3210 | 0 | | | 杭州 螺纹钢 | 3240 | 3230 | 10 | ...

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Overweight" [8] Core Insights - The dual carbon policy is entering a substantive execution phase, which may drive a recovery in the steel industry by 2026 due to normalized supply constraints and improved profitability [1][2] - The steel industry's current profitability is at a historical low, with less than 40% of surveyed steel companies reporting profits, indicating a potential for significant earnings elasticity as supply policies tighten [3][4] - Demand is expected to remain stable, supported by resilient exports and upgrades in manufacturing, despite downward pressure from the real estate sector [5] Summary by Sections Supply - The steel supply reduction cycle is entering a substantive phase, with a clear capacity ceiling established, which may lead to profit redistribution [4] - Since 2015, the steel production and domestic demand have been in a long-term decline, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1.43% from 2020 to 2024 for crude steel production [4] Demand - Demand is not expected to experience strong cyclical expansion, but stability is anticipated due to resilient exports, infrastructure support, and growth in high-end manufacturing and new energy sectors [5] - The real estate sector's contribution to steel demand has decreased to below 20%, reducing the marginal impact of its weakness on overall demand [5] Conclusion - The dual carbon policy may increase industry costs and capital expenditures in the short term, but it is expected to elevate the profitability of the steel industry in the medium to long term by compressing supply and raising industry entry barriers [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed a mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.25%, driven by a rebound in large-cap technology stocks and a collective rise in the biopharmaceutical sector, while the market is shifting focus towards tangible assets amid AI uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices of the Hong Kong stock market opened higher but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.25%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 0.04%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.15% [1] - Major technology stocks experienced varied performance, with SenseTime rising over 4% and Tencent Holdings increasing nearly 1.5%, while other key tech stocks like SMIC and Alibaba also saw gains [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (520910) saw a slight increase, with a total scale of 664 million yuan and a net inflow of 32.5 million yuan over the past five trading days [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the recent market pullback to a "HALO trading" strategy, indicating a shift from chasing light-asset narratives to focusing on tangible assets with high entry barriers that are less susceptible to technological obsolescence [1] - According to Ping An International, external market disturbances have led to a retreat in optimistic sentiment, with some trading indicators showing weakened momentum [2] - The Hang Seng Index remains above one standard deviation from the past five years, while the Hang Seng Tech Index is closer to its five-year average, suggesting potential for upward movement if companies adjust their earnings guidance positively [2] Group 3: AI and Investment Trends - The long-term trend in AI remains strong, with a necessary focus on continued investment, although the structure of investments is expected to become more differentiated [2] - Companies in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly leading tech firms, are encouraged to plan their AI investments strategically to enhance their upward potential and certainty [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF (520910) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index, covering key internet sectors with a high proportion of AI applications, including major players like Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, and Kuaishou [2]

2026年02月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期回暖，矿价震荡上扬 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪扰动，价格宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：南非矿产税务信息扰动，资金低位拉涨 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：仓单扰动，震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：上游报价坚挺，短期煤价表现偏强 | 9 | | 原木：预期回暖，震荡偏强 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 27 日 来源：Mysteel，东财 Choice，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 （1）上海市住房城乡建设管理委、上海市房屋管理局等 5 部门 2 月 25 日联合发布《关于进一步优化 调整本市房地产政策的通知》，自 2026 年 2 月 26 日起施行。 （2）2 月 25 日讯，据了解华北部分钢企已接到 2026 年全国两会期间临时自主减排通知，要求企业在 3 月 4 ...

Group 1 - Multiple steel companies reported a strong start in January 2026, with Fangda Steel achieving production rates of 105.01% for pig iron, 110.63% for crude steel, and 110.71% for steel products, setting new records for several key indicators [1] - Yangchun New Steel recorded a sales rate of 101% for the entire month of January, indicating breakthroughs in sales channels [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities released a report indicating that recent self-reduction measures during the Two Sessions may signify the substantial implementation phase of the dual carbon policy, with supply constraints becoming a core driver for industry profit recovery [2] - The steel industry is expected to recover in 2026, as it is currently at historical lows, with a long-term decline in crude steel production and an ongoing optimization of downstream demand structure [2] - The steel sector is entering a recovery cycle characterized by policy leadership, supply contraction, and increased profit elasticity [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates a warming of the iron ore market, with prices expected to fluctuate upwards [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 748.5 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton (-0.53%). The yesterday's position was 540,573 hands, with an increase of 12,089 hands [1] - **Spot Prices**: Among imported ores, the price of Carajás Fine (65%) was 878.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton; PB (61.5%) was 750.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton; Jinbuba (61%) was 702.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton; Super Special (56.5%) was 638.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged at 899.0 yuan/ton and 817.0 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special increased by 1.8 yuan/ton to 91.8 yuan/ton, and against Jinbuba increased by 0.8 yuan/ton to 69.5 yuan/ton. The spread of I2605 - I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 16.5 yuan/ton, and I2609 - I2701 remained unchanged at 11.5 yuan/ton. The spread of Carajás Fine - PB increased by 7.0 yuan/ton to 128.0 yuan/ton, PB - Jinbuba increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 48.0 yuan/ton, and PB - Super Special remained unchanged at 112.0 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On February 25, 2026, five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust the local real - estate policy, which took effect on February 26 [1] - On February 25, it was reported that some steel enterprises in North China had received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 National Two Sessions. They were required to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11, with a blast furnace load reduction of no less than 30% [2] - On February 24, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said that the two sides of China and the United States were in communication regarding President Trump's visit to China [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [2]

Core Viewpoint - Baogang Co., Ltd. (SH600010) experienced a limit-up on February 27, 2026, with a price of 3.28 yuan, an increase of 8.39%, and a total market capitalization of 146.282 billion yuan, driven by improved net profit, share buybacks, and a strategic transformation in the rare earth business [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit for the first three quarters increased by 749 million yuan year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement in operational performance, which positively impacts stock price [1] - The total transaction amount reached 7.089 billion yuan, reflecting strong market activity [1] Group 2: Share Buyback - Baogang has implemented a share buyback plan, having repurchased approximately 130 million yuan worth of shares, accounting for about 0.12% of the total share capital, which signals the company's recognition of its own value and boosts investor confidence [1] Group 3: Strategic Transformation - The company has clarified its strategic positioning as "high-quality specialty steel + series rare earth steel," indicating a strategic transformation in its rare earth business, with pricing for rare earth concentrates adjusted according to a formula, enhancing the transparency of related transaction pricing mechanisms [1] - The strategic transformation in the rare earth sector is expected to provide new growth opportunities and profit points for the company [1] Group 4: Market Activity - On February 25, the company was included in the "Dragon and Tiger List," with a transaction amount of 5.88 billion yuan, total purchases of 1.647 billion yuan, and total sales of 613 million yuan, driven by net buying from retail and foreign investors, which contributed to the stock price increase [1] - The linkage effect from the general steel sector may also have played a role in Baogang's limit-up [1]

Group 1 - Steel stocks have risen significantly, with Chongqing Steel up 7.38% to HKD 1.31, Maanshan Steel up 4.67% to HKD 2.69, Angang Steel up 4.41% to HKD 2.13, and China Oriental Group up 2.56% to HKD 1.6 [1] - Several steel companies reported strong production results for January 2026, with Fangda Steel achieving 105.01% of its pig iron production plan, 110.63% for crude steel, and 110.71% for steel products, setting new records [1] - Yangchun New Steel reported a sales rate of 101% for January, indicating breakthroughs in sales channels [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities released a report suggesting that recent self-reduction measures during the Two Sessions may indicate the substantial implementation of dual carbon policies, with supply constraints becoming a core driver for industry profit recovery [1] - The steel industry is currently at historical lows, with a long-term decline in crude steel production and an ongoing optimization of downstream demand structure, signaling the start of a recovery cycle driven by policy, supply contraction, and profit elasticity [1]