摘要 人民币升值投资机会解读 20251229 人民币升值利好上游原材料行业（公用事业、有色金属、钢铁、能源化 工）和消费品行业（航空公司、免税业务），降低进口商品成本，提升 相关企业盈利能力。 人民币升值减轻了航空公司和房地产企业以美元计价的债务偿还压力， 尤其是航空公司通过汇兑收益直接增厚利润，房地产企业境外美元债偿 债压力降低。 人民币升值将提升人民币核心资产的估值，金融领域的银行和保险业， 以及港股市场中的恒生科技指数和恒生中国企业指数，可能因外资流入 而表现突出。 燃气板块受益于人民币升值，因燃气价格与美元计价的国际油价挂钩， 降低采购成本；而高股息火电板块受汇率影响较小，表现相对弱势。 航空业直接受益于飞机采购和租赁的汇兑收益，以及美联储降息带来的 融资成本降低；间接受益于美元计价运营成本的降低和出境游需求的刺 激。 人民币升值扩大了国内降息空间，有助于房地产市场企稳，并吸引外资 投资以人民币计价的大宗不动产，如商业办公和物流地产项目。 港股市场因人民币升值对外资吸引力增加而受益，尤其是科技板块，但 股价根本驱动因素仍是每股收益（EPS），流动性影响短期股价。 Q&A 人民币升值对哪些行业有显著影 ...

钢铁行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251229 摘要 钢铁行业盈利能力在 2024 年三季度触底，虽有阶段性恢复，但整体盈 利水平仍低于历史平均，2025 年盈利预期除二三季度部分月份外，其 余月份表现依旧不佳。 房地产领域钢材需求持续下滑至 2026 年，但降幅收窄；制造业和出口 成为需求增长新动力，尤其机械、家电、新能源等高端制造领域需求对 冲了地产下滑影响。 钢铁生产各环节（生铁、粗钢、钢材）增速及统计口径存在差异，导致 市场对原材料价格支撑力度判断不一；反内卷政策落地效果不一，影响 市场预期。 2026 年建筑链耗钢量趋于稳定，出口和制造业成为关键增长点；出口 许可证管理政策可能导致部分钢材回流国内，影响供给和库存；汇率稳 定对出口至关重要。 上游原材料（铁矿石、焦煤）价格挤压中游钢铁盈利空间，需关注上游 让利可能性，如西芒杜矿区投产及反内卷政策落地对成本的压制作用。 Q&A 钢铁行业在过去几年的表现如何？2025 年整体情况如何？ 钢铁行业自 2021 年达到高点后，经历了连续四年的单边下滑。2022 年至 2025 年，行业处于景气下跌、盈利空间逐步收窄的状态。尽管某些季度因反 内卷、阶段性减 ...

Economic Indicators - December economic conditions show a high likelihood of continued month-on-month weakening in macroeconomic performance[1] - The operating rate for asphalt enterprises increased to 31.3%, up by 3.7 percentage points month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 9.8%[8] - The capacity utilization rate for steel mills decreased to 85.52%, down by 0.21 percentage points month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 0.9%[43] Production and Supply - The average daily crude steel production in mid-December was 1.845 million tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from early December, with a year-on-year decline of 6.7%[71] - The production of cement was 9.454 million tons, down by 394,000 tons month-on-month, but up by 22.0% year-on-year[93] - The production of photovoltaic glass remained stable at 519,200 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 52.2%[98] Price Trends - The average price of cement in East China was 435 RMB/ton, down by 3 RMB/ton month-on-month, while the price in Southwest China remained unchanged at 512 RMB/ton[104] - The price index for rebar increased by 15 RMB/ton to 3326.2 RMB/ton[112] - The price of lithium carbonate rose to 113,600 RMB/ton, an increase of 12,800 RMB/ton month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 51.1%[136] Market Outlook - The real estate sales area in 30 cities reached 2.9 million square meters, the highest level in Q4, indicating a better performance compared to November[7] - The overall industrial sector did not show signs of aggressive production, and the export situation remained relatively stable, suggesting a need for macroeconomic policy support to stabilize the economic fundamentals in the first half of next year[1]

（原标题：阿联酋钢铁集团推进工业脱碳） 阿通社12月25日消息，阿联酋钢铁集团（EMSTEEL）与阿联酋核能公司（ENEC）达成合作，通 过采购经I-REC认证的清洁核电，推动钢铁生产脱碳。目前EMSTEEL钢铁业务86%、水泥业务14%已使 用清洁电力，目标是2030年实现100%清洁用电。ENEC旗下巴拉卡核电站年发电约40TWh，可满足全国 25%用电并年减排2240万吨碳。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a moderate improvement in consumption, with service consumption recovering ahead of the holiday, as evidenced by increased subway passenger flow in 18 cities and a positive shift in the Hainan tourism price index year-on-year [1] - In terms of investment, the issuance of special bonds has concluded, leading to an increase in physical workload, with asphalt operating rates rebounding and continuous improvement in building materials data [1] - The real estate sector shows a seasonal recovery in sales, with an increase in the proportion of second-hand housing, although overall prices and premiums remain low [1] Group 2 - In foreign trade, there is a divergence between rising domestic export freight rates and a decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) [1] - Production continues to show differentiation, with emerging industries such as polyester, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic chains demonstrating strong resilience, while traditional cyclical industries like steel and some chemicals are experiencing a downturn [1] - Inventory levels are decreasing for coal and building materials, while PTA continues to deplete inventory and polyester shows a slight accumulation [1] Group 3 - Industrial product prices are generally rebounding, with oil and non-ferrous metals experiencing a rebound, and the South China index rising [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows structural differentiation, with food prices fluctuating [1] - In terms of liquidity, funding rates have shown slight fluctuations, and the renminbi continues to strengthen due to a weaker dollar and increased demand for foreign exchange settlements [1]

墨西哥这两年在贸易上动作频频，本来是北美供应链的中坚，受美国影响深。2023年夏天，墨西哥政府 突然对来自中国等亚洲国家的钢铁、铝和化工品加征关税，最高25%。这政策一落地，当地工厂成本就 上去了，因为不少原料靠进口。 彼得·纳瓦罗在美国政坛上总喜欢搅动经贸话题，尤其对华态度一贯强硬。他从民主党背景转投特朗普 阵营后，就成了贸易保护主义的代言人。早年间写书抨击中国经济模式，数据常常被指责有偏差。 企业主们私下抱怨，供应链被打乱，生产节奏跟不上。到2025年9月，墨西哥又推更大方案，覆盖上千 项产品，税率拉到50%。国会12月10日批准时，虽然有些调整，但核心是针对非自贸伙伴国，明显冲着 中国去。 2023年因藐视国会调查坐牢四个月，出狱后没多久，又被特朗普拉回白宫，当上贸易和制造业高级顾 问。纳瓦罗的逻辑简单粗暴，强调关税能重振美国制造业，减少逆差，却忽略全球供应链的复杂性。他 的回归，让人觉得特朗普第二任期的贸易政策会更趋对抗。 中方不光发声明，还在行动上稳扎稳打。商务部启动调查，与墨西哥企业沟通损失评估。国内产业则抓 紧优化，从新能源到电子，订单没受大影响。使馆的回击被国际认可，因为它戳中了要害：单边关税 ...

近期，国家发改委密集发声"反内卷"。今年12月12日—13日，在全国发展和改革工作会议上，"综合整治'内卷式'竞争和培育发展新动能"并列提出。同时， 会上强调，完善重点行业产能治理和重大基础设施调控，大力培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，培育壮大若干新兴支柱产业，深化拓展"人工智能+"行动，补 齐科技服务业短板，完善低空经济产业生态，深入推进数字经济高质量发展。 12月29日，国家发改委创新和高技术发展司在《因地制宜发展新质生产力》的署名文章中表示，坚决贯彻落实因地制宜发展新质生产力的要求。发展新质生 产力是一项长期任务和系统工程，要坚持一切从实际出发，具体问题具体分析，因地制宜、分类指导，不断提高发展新质生产力的实践本领和能力。坚持全 国一盘棋，优化重大生产力布局，统筹谋划、系统推进重点领域发展，防止一哄而上、重复建设，坚决反对"内卷式"竞争，增强发展新质生产力的整体效 能。 科方得智库研究负责人张新原表示，此次国家发改委提出的"坚持全国一盘棋，优化重大生产力布局"等要求，体现出国家对经济高质量发展的战略导向。防 止一哄而上、重复建设，坚决反对"内卷式"竞争，有助于引导资源向关键领域集中，避免低水平同质化竞争，推 ...

Macro Policy Updates - The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection's fifth plenary session will be held from January 12 to 14, 2026[2] - The National People's Congress will convene its fourth session on March 5, 2026[2] Fiscal Policy - The national fiscal work conference on December 27 emphasized expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools[3] - New special bond quotas will be allocated to regions with high investment efficiency and project readiness[3] - The Ministry of Finance will enforce strict accountability for local government debt and prohibit the creation of new hidden debts[3] Monetary and Capital Markets - The People's Bank of China suggested integrating incremental and stock policies to enhance financial support for key sectors[4] - The 2025 Financial Stability Report aims to improve the investment scale and proportion of long-term funds in A-shares[4] Industrial Development - The National Development and Reform Commission is focusing on optimizing traditional industries and regulating competition in emerging sectors[5] - The industrial and information technology conference highlighted the need for technological innovation and the development of new industries[5] Risk Management - There is a risk of delayed policy updates affecting economic stability[5]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年12月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | な女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。淡季螺纹表需下滑，产量继续小幅回升，库存延续去化态势。热卷需求回暖，产量小幅回升，去库有所加 快，压力仍有待缓解。供应压力逐步缓解，钢厂利润边际改善，高炉城产态势放缓，铁水有所企稳，关注唐山等地环保限产持 续性。从下游行业看，地产投资降幅继续扩大，基建、制造业投资增速持续回落，内需整体依 ...

Core Viewpoint - The official launch of the first phase of the cold-rolled silicon steel project by Sanbao Group marks a significant milestone in the company's strategic transformation towards high-end manufacturing and aligns with national industrial standards [2][15][30]. Group 1: Project Launch and Significance - The cold-rolled silicon steel project (Phase I) was officially launched on December 29, with over 280 attendees including key leaders and representatives from various sectors [2][30]. - The project features the first domestic small six-roller six-frame (UCMW) acid continuous rolling line with full intelligent control, completed in just 10 months, setting a new benchmark for project speed and quality [2][17]. - The project aims to achieve over 100 billion in revenue during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and contribute to high-quality regional economic development [2][17]. Group 2: Technical and Design Aspects - The project is designed to meet international leading standards, focusing on "technology leadership and lean design," and is a key initiative for Sanbao Group's transition to "high precision, special, and new" [4][19]. - The project will utilize top-tier German equipment for annealing furnaces and integrate advanced process technology to create a high-end, intelligent, and green industrial cluster [15][30]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Economic Impact - Upon full production, the project is expected to yield an annual output of 2.56 million tons of high-end silicon steel and tinplate products, generating an additional output value of over 20 billion [15][30]. - The project is positioned to support the high-end manufacturing sector in China and enhance the development of new productive forces in the industry [15][30]. Group 4: Local Government Support - The local government in Zhangzhou is committed to optimizing the business environment and providing comprehensive support to facilitate the successful implementation of major projects like this one [12][27].