. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/5/14 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - Precious metals and industrial metals have shown strong performance, while energy metals are under pressure [1] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector in 2024 saw a 32% increase, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 115 percentage points [14] - In Q1 2025, the non-ferrous metal sector rose by 120%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 132 percentage points, with precious metals increasing by 255% and industrial metals by 133% [14] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 2,976.948 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 2,794.166 billion yuan [2] Precious Metals - In 2024, the average price of gold was 5,594 yuan per gram, a year-on-year increase of 242%, leading to a total revenue of 2,820 billion yuan and a net profit of 1,497.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 52% increase [18] - In Q1 2025, the average gold price reached 6,722 yuan per gram, up 37% year-on-year, with revenue of 818 billion yuan and a net profit of 473.1 billion yuan, marking a 47% increase [30] Copper - The average copper price in 2024 was 75,000 yuan per ton, a 103% increase year-on-year, with total revenue of 14,452 billion yuan and a net profit of 754.81 billion yuan, a 40% increase [34] - In Q1 2025, the copper price was 77,000 yuan per ton, up 11.4% year-on-year, with revenue of 3,357 billion yuan and a net profit of 233 billion yuan, a 50% increase [48] Aluminum - In 2024, the aluminum sector saw an average price of 20,000 yuan per ton, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, with total revenue of 4,207 billion yuan and a net profit of 410.28 billion yuan, a 27% increase [57] - In Q1 2025, the average aluminum price was 21,000 yuan per ton, with revenue of 1,032 billion yuan and a net profit of 109.75 billion yuan, a 29% increase [72] Lithium - The lithium sector faced significant challenges in 2024, with the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping by 65.1% year-on-year, leading to a revenue decline of 48% [77] - In Q1 2025, the lithium sector showed signs of recovery, with revenue of 126 billion yuan and a net profit of 464 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 159% [91] Rare Earth Permanent Magnets - In 2024, the rare earth sector experienced a decline, with total revenue of 600 billion yuan and a net profit of 121.1 billion yuan, a 67% decrease [101] - In Q1 2025, the sector showed recovery with revenue of 145 billion yuan and a net profit of 867 million yuan, a 221% increase year-on-year [130] Institutional Holdings - In Q1 2025, the allocation ratio for the non-ferrous metal sector was 434%, with significant increases in allocations for precious and industrial metals [141]

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 中美关税下调，周期哪些行业受益？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 12 日，中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进 展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91%的反制关 税；美方在初始的 90 天内暂停实施 24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应在初始的 90 天内暂停实 施 24%的反制关税，对中美贸易往来的大宗产品带来显著利好，具体影响几何？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 范超 韩轶超 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BQK468 马太 魏凯 张韦华 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490517080003 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BQT627 张弛 SA ...

Mergers and Acquisitions - China Medical plans to acquire 100% equity of Jinsui Technology for 302 million yuan, with Jinsui's core business being e-commerce operations and brand authorization for Philips personal health products [1] - Sunshine Nuohuo intends to purchase 100% equity of Jiangsu Langyan Life Science Technology through share issuance and convertible bonds, focusing on high-end chemical drugs and providing pharmaceutical production services [2] - Yunnan Copper is planning to acquire 40% equity of Liangshan Mining from its parent company, with the stock suspension expected to last no more than 10 trading days [3] Share Buybacks and Increases - Haizheng Pharmaceutical intends to repurchase shares worth between 50 million and 100 million yuan for an employee stock ownership plan, with a maximum repurchase price of 13 yuan per share [4] - Tianqiao Hoisting's controlling shareholder plans to increase holdings between 75 million and 150 million yuan, with a maximum purchase price of 5 yuan per share [5] - China Railway Industry's controlling shareholder plans to increase holdings between 160 million and 300 million yuan, with a limit of 2% of the total share capital [6] Stock Market Activity - Chunguang Technology's stock has seen a significant increase of 59.76% over six trading days, indicating potential irrational market speculation [7] - Lijun Co. confirms normal operations and no undisclosed significant matters despite stock price fluctuations exceeding 20% [8][9] - Tongwei Co. executives plan to reduce their holdings by a total of 22,200 shares due to personal financial needs, representing 0.1016% of the total share capital [10]

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 12 日星期一 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：上周五受贸易进展不确定性和地缘冲突的影响伦敦金下破 3280 美元后 | | 研究员：王伟 | 持续反弹，最终收涨 0.63%，报 3326.46 美元/盎司。但周末中美经贸高层宣布会谈取得 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 了实质性进展，伦敦金今晨跳空低开；现货白银周五收涨 0.84%，报 32.72 美元/盎司。 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 0.33%，报 790.74 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.88%， | | 报 | 8221 元/千克。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数：美元指数回吐前日部分涨幅，收跌 0.3%，报 100.339。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

[Table_Info1] 有色金属 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-05-12 $$i k\neq\pm i k$$ 上次评级:优于大势 [Table_PicQuote] 历史收益率曲线 [Table_Trend] 涨跌幅（%） 1M 3M 12M 绝对收益 8% 1% -2% 相对收益 4% 2% -7% [Table_Market] 行业数据 成分股数量（只） 136 总市值（亿） 24568 流通市值（亿） 13349 市盈率（倍） 14.56 市净率（倍） 2.13 成分股总营收（亿） 31776 成分股总净利润（亿） 1882 成分股资产负债率（%） 50.80 [Table_Report] 相关报告 《黄金：情绪缓和，现实恶化，继续看多金价》 --20250506 《黄金：牛市未尽》 --20250428 《黄金：新世界秩序下的宠儿》 --20250421 《东北有色周报：关税反复+财政担忧+联储观 望，金价继续冲高》 --20250414 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：曾智勤 执业证书编号：S0550520110002 021-20363251 zengzq@nesc ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term cautious long [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term cautious long [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term cautious short (steel and iron ore), short - term range - bound for ferroalloys [6][7][8] - **Energy Chemicals**: Varying trends, mostly short - term follow - up with crude oil and range - bound [9][10][11][12][13][14] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term limited upside for copper, short - term fluctuations for tin, and attention to aluminum's de - stocking [15][16] - **Agricultural Products**: Different trends for various sub - sectors, such as potential increase in domestic rapeseed buying interest, and complex trends for others [17][18][19] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Perspective**: Overseas, the US - UK limited trade agreement and a significant drop in US initial jobless claims led to a short - term sharp rebound in the US dollar and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, progress in China - US trade negotiations, central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, and policy support for consumption are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Allocation**: Short - term, equity indices may rebound with caution, treasury bonds may oscillate at high levels with caution, and different commodity sectors have different trends, generally with a cautious approach [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro** - Overseas: Trump announced a limited US - UK trade agreement, and the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, causing the US dollar to rebound and global risk appetite to rise [3]. - Domestic: China - US high - level talks in Switzerland showed progress, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rate by 10BP, and the Ministry of Commerce planned to boost consumption, which is expected to increase domestic risk appetite [3]. **Equity Index** - Driven by sectors like military, auto services, and industrial equipment, the domestic stock market continued to rise. Favorable policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long is recommended [4]. **Precious Metals** - The precious metals market declined on Thursday. The weakening of gold's safe - haven property due to the easing of trade tensions and the unclear US economic outlook. However, gold has long - term allocation value, and long - term positions can be built using a ratio spread structure if it corrects [4][5]. **Black Metals** - **Steel**: The steel market declined on Thursday. As May is the off - season, demand has decreased, and supply may also decline. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore declined on Thursday. Steel demand is weakening, and although the current iron ore supply is low, it is expected to increase in the second quarter. A short - term bearish view is recommended [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are in a range - bound pattern, and a short - term range - bound view is recommended [7][8]. **Energy Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The US - UK trade agreement increased market confidence, leading to an increase in oil prices [9]. - **Asphalt**: The price followed crude oil and then rebounded. Inventory removal has stagnated, and it will continue to follow crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: It rebounded, and it will maintain a tight balance and an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: It will continue to reduce inventory in May, but there is a risk of a decline in downstream profits. It may oscillate at a high level in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is in a weak oscillation, and the inventory removal time will be postponed [10]. - **Short Fiber**: The downstream processing profit is decreasing, and it will oscillate at a high level following crude oil [11]. - **Methanol**: The price is oscillating downward, and the medium - term price may be under pressure [11][12]. - **PP**: The market price declined slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the medium - term may face demand negative feedback [13]. - **LLDPE**: The price is weakly adjusted. The downstream demand is weak, and the medium - term price is under pressure [14]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment, but high tariffs will limit the upside. The demand is about to enter the off - season [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory has decreased recently, but there has been cumulative inventory since May. The short - term may still fluctuate, and long positions should be gradually closed [16]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The short - term price will oscillate [16]. **Agricultural Products** - **US Soybeans**: About 15% of the US soybean planting area is affected by drought, and Canadian rapeseed may face adverse weather [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market's concern about the pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals has decreased. The spot basis price is high, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is increasing [17][18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The international oil market had a technical adjustment. The domestic oil market has a weak fundamental situation, and the palm oil price may continue to decline [18]. - **Pigs**: The piglet replenishment enthusiasm is average, and there may be pressure on the market in July. The price of LH09 may be more volatile [18]. - **Corn**: The short - term demand for deep - processing has decreased seasonally, and the futures price may decline for correction. The price increase is met with cautious downstream acceptance [19].

Group 1 - Shengxiang Bio plans to increase its investment in Hunan Shengwei Kunteng Biotechnology Co., Ltd. by 100 million yuan to enhance its industrial chain layout in the POCT field, resulting in a 44.6441% stake in Shengwei Kunteng after the investment [1] - Yaguang Technology's subsidiary Chengdu Yaguang signed a product pre-production agreement worth 101 million yuan, accounting for 10.56% of the company's audited revenue for the last fiscal year [1] Group 2 - Chutianlong's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3%, equating to 13.83 million shares, due to personal funding needs [2] - Naipu Mining intends to invest up to 45 million USD in Swiss Veritas Resources AG, acquiring a 22.5% stake to extend its industrial chain [2][3] Group 3 - Diri Medical's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3%, totaling 814.83 thousand shares, due to funding needs [4] - Kangtai Medical's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 2.99%, equating to 12 million shares [5] Group 4 - Iwu Bio's controlling shareholder plans to transfer up to 450 thousand shares through block trading, representing 0.86% of the total share capital [7] - Guokai Hengtai's four shareholders plan to collectively reduce their stake by up to 4.7%, totaling 22.94 million shares [9] Group 5 - *ST Zhongcheng submitted a hearing application to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in response to a delisting notice [10] - Donghua Software's actual controller and associated parties plan to reduce their stake by up to 1%, totaling 32.05 million shares [12] Group 6 - Shandong Molong's shareholder reduced its H-share holdings by 107 million shares, representing 13.39% of the total share capital [12] - Yinbang Co.'s shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 1%, totaling 821.92 thousand shares [13] Group 7 - Jinxinnong reported April sales of 10.65 million pigs, generating sales revenue of 139 million yuan, with an average selling price of 15.05 yuan per kilogram [14] - Dongfang Jiasheng purchased 9.54 million shares of Zhonggu Logistics for approximately 99.72 million yuan, representing 4.18% of the company's net assets [15] Group 8 - Linglong Tire's controlling shareholder received a financing commitment of up to 270 million yuan for stock repurchase [16] - Wuchan Jinlun's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3%, totaling 619.77 thousand shares [18] Group 9 - Pengyao Environmental's directors and executives plan to collectively reduce their stake by up to 0.07% [19] - Ruihu Mould's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 1.92%, totaling 401.89 thousand shares [20] Group 10 - Electric Alloy's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 0.63%, totaling 210.88 thousand shares [22] - Shanghai Xinyang's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 0.64%, totaling 200 thousand shares [24] Group 11 - Sujiao Ke's controlling shareholder plans to acquire up to 2% of the company's shares from a fund [26] - Heyuan Bio's shareholders plan to reduce their stake by up to 1%, totaling 649.04 thousand shares [27]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecasts for Q2 and Q3 to $9,330 and $9,150 per ton, respectively, from previous forecasts of $8,620 and $8,370 [1] - U.S. domestic crude oil production for the week ending May 2 was the lowest since January 24, 2025, while EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories reached the highest level since October 28, 2022 [1] Group 2 - The central bank has increased its gold holdings for six consecutive months, with J.P. Morgan indicating there is still room for further accumulation [2] - Citigroup lowered its Brent crude oil pricing for the 0-3 month period from $60 per barrel to $55 per barrel [2] - The European Union is considering sanctions against the Russian oil company Lukoil's Dubai branch [2] - Sources indicate that Guinea has initiated the process to revoke EGA's mining license [2] - The Egyptian Supply Minister stated that the strategic reserves of sugar in Egypt are sufficient to last for 14.1 months [2]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices fell by 1.91% to $3366.16 per ounce, with a day high of $3435.62 and a low of $3360.32 [1] - COMEX gold futures decreased by 1.35% to $3376.50 per ounce, reaching a high of $3433.50 before dropping to a low of $3367.00 [1] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index declined by 1.27% to 189.30 points [2] Group 2 - Spot silver prices dropped by 2.31% to $32.4550 per ounce, hitting a day low of $32.2490 shortly after a press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [2] - COMEX silver futures fell by 2.32% to $32.605 per ounce [3] - COMEX copper futures decreased by 3.33%, reaching a day low of $4.6125 per pound [4]