1. Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals and Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Daily Report [2] - Report Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Author: Xu Liang [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views Precious Metals - Shanghai Gold (SHFE) showed a high - level oscillating and回调 trend. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate offset part of the upward transmission effect of international gold prices, and the post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand made SHFE gold weaker than overseas markets. With multiple factors in play, SHFE gold will maintain an oscillating pattern [4]. Copper - Copper prices are affected by macro, sentiment, and expectations. In the short term, the absolute price of copper is difficult to predict, but volatility will remain high [16]. Zinc - Given the supply and demand situation and weak macro data, zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short term. Alumina is likely to continue its weak performance due to an oversupply situation and bearish market sentiment [46]. Nickel - The nickel market remains stable in terms of fundamentals, with no significant changes in logic. The nickel market lacks obvious upward drivers [66]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to continue their narrow - range oscillation in the short term as the impact of macro factors on the fundamentals is not yet evident [80]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium salt prices are falling, and there is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and salt prices. Trade uncertainties may suppress long - term demand [91]. Silicon - With prices in the silicon industry chain falling, downstream polysilicon production cuts are more likely, and the supply side of industrial silicon is also showing signs of adjustment [99]. 4. Content Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Price Performance**: SHFE gold showed high - level oscillation and回调, affected by factors such as the RMB exchange rate and domestic consumption demand [4]. - **Influencing Factors**: The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand, and multiple macro - factors contribute to the current situation of SHFE gold [4]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Copper prices are affected by multiple factors, and short - term volatility remains high. The latest prices of various copper contracts are provided, with daily price changes and percentage changes [16][17]. - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors (US non - farm employment data and Sino - US tariff issues), market sentiment (disputes between bulls and bears), and policy expectations (upcoming financial policies) all impact copper prices [16]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: Zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend. The latest prices of various zinc contracts and related price differences are presented [35][36]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply is expected to be loose due to the opening of the import window, and demand is supported by domestic policies but with unclear strength. Weak macro data also affects zinc prices [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price Performance**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate, and alumina is likely to be weak. The latest prices of aluminum and alumina contracts are provided [46][47]. - **Influencing Factors**: For aluminum, macro factors and demand seasonality are key. For alumina, the supply of bauxite, production capacity changes, and market sentiment are important [46]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The nickel market lacks upward drivers. The latest prices of nickel and stainless - steel contracts and related data are given [66][67]. - **Influencing Factors**: The slow release of nickel ore supply, the continuous decline in nickel - iron prices, and the weak stainless - steel market all contribute to the current situation [66]. Tin - **Price Performance**: Tin prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. The latest prices of tin contracts are provided [80]. - **Influencing Factors**: Uncertainty about Myanmar's复产 and the semiconductor industry cycle affect tin prices [80]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: Lithium salt prices are falling, and the market is cautious. The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts and related price differences are presented [91]. - **Influencing Factors**: Market sentiment, cost - side changes, and trade uncertainties impact lithium carbonate prices [91]. Silicon - **Price Performance**: The prices of industrial silicon and related products in the silicon industry chain are falling. The latest prices of industrial silicon contracts and spot prices are provided [99][100]. - **Influencing Factors**: Expected production cuts in downstream polysilicon and supply - side adjustments in industrial silicon affect prices [99].

| 日期 | 沪锌现货进口盈利 | 沪锌期货进口盈利 | 锌保税库premium | LME C-3M | LME锌库存 | LME锌注销仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/24 | -217.88 | -833.44 | 140 | -33 | 182300 | 31700 | | 2025/04/25 | -150.12 | -851.44 | 140 | -35 | 180050 | 29575 | | 2025/04/28 | -52.89 | -707.36 | 140 | -36 | 179325 | 29525 | | 2025/04/29 | -65.03 | -746.91 | 140 | -35 | 177550 | 31125 | | 2025/04/30 | -4.26 | -777.42 | 140 | -35 | 175275 | 31000 | | 变化 | 60.77 | -30.51 | 0 | 0 | -2275 | -125 | 本周锌价格重心反弹后宽幅震荡，关税情绪改善。供应端，本周国内T ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a bullish outlook on gold prices despite ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainties, suggesting that the worst of market sentiment has passed and prices are expected to trend upwards [2][11] - For copper, the supply-demand dynamics remain tight, and there are opportunities for low-position equity investments despite short-term volatility [3][12] - The aluminum market is experiencing price fluctuations, with a focus on downstream inventory replenishment and the impact of macroeconomic factors [14] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Research Insights - Gold prices are expected to remain volatile but trend upwards due to easing trade tensions and ongoing economic concerns [2][11] - Copper demand remains strong, with high operating rates in production and a supportive supply side despite recent disruptions [3][12] 2. Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals index fell by 0.85%, underperforming the broader market [15] - The top-performing sub-sectors include rare earths and magnetic materials, while lithium and aluminum showed declines [15] 3. Metal Prices and Inventories 3.1. New Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are stable, while lithium prices have decreased, indicating a mixed market for these metals [25][28] 3.2. Base Metals - Base metal prices have generally declined, with specific price movements noted for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin [35][37] 3.3. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 0.8% to $3319 per ounce, while silver prices decreased by 2.1% to $32.83 per ounce [48][49]

Group 1: Energy and Petrochemicals - Oil prices declined weakly during the domestic holiday. Brent 07 contract dropped 3.8% compared to the closing on April 30. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June and may continue in July. The short - term oil market is expected to be volatile and weak [2]. - Precious metals fluctuated widely during the May Day holiday. The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in May. The long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported, but it's advisable to wait for a pullback before layout [3]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to follow the decline of international oil prices. The 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil spot is at a discount, and the ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil spot shows a strong spread [21]. - Asphalt is expected to follow the decline of international oil prices. However, with improved supply - demand, the BU crack spread is expected to be volatile and strong [22]. - LPG has support in the overseas market due to chemical demand, but the domestic market is under pressure as PDH plants enter maintenance. The price is expected to be volatile [23]. Group 2: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fluctuated during the holiday. LME copper inventories dropped to 197,700 tons, and COMEX copper inventories increased to 146,500 short tons. Hold short positions above 78,000 for the 2507 contract [4]. - Aluminum prices may face resistance in the 20,000 - 20,300 yuan range due to uncertain demand in the off - season [5]. - Alumina production has decreased, but capacity may resume. The price is expected to be volatile, and it's advisable to short on rallies [6]. - Zinc prices are weak. With expected imports and weak downstream consumption in the off - season, it's advisable to short on rallies [7]. - Lead prices are weak due to high inventories. The spot import window may open after the holiday, and the price is expected to range between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Nickel prices are at the end of a rebound. Observe for new short - building opportunities [9]. - Tin prices declined due to weak Korean manufacturing and concerns about demand. Hold short positions against 265,000 [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a downward channel. Hold short positions as supply is elastic and inventories are increasing [11]. - Industrial silicon prices are under pressure. Supply - demand structure is poor with slow production resumption and weak demand in the photovoltaic and organic silicon industries [12]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to follow the downward trend of the photovoltaic industry. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but inventories are rising slightly [13]. Group 3: Ferrous Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are volatile. Rebar demand improved, and inventories decreased. Hot - rolled coil supply - demand stabilized, and inventories continued to decline. Pay attention to demand in the peak season and policy implementation [14]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile. Supply is increasing seasonally, and domestic port inventories are rising. Pay attention to the pressure when iron - water production peaks [15]. - Coke's second price increase was rejected. Inventories remain high, and pay attention to steel exports [16]. - Coking coal prices are expected to be weakly volatile. Production is gradually recovering, but inventories are high, and downstream procurement is for rigid demand [17]. - Silicomanganese prices are under pressure. Inventories are increasing, and it's advisable to short on rallies [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices are weak. Supply is decreasing, but inventories are rising. Short on rallies [19]. Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices may decline after the holiday. Supply is sufficient, and pay attention to export dynamics [24]. - Methanol prices are expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is entering the off - season [25]. - Styrene prices face increasing supply - demand contradictions. Costs are weakening, and production is expected to increase while demand is weak [26]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are volatile and weak. Demand is weak, and inventories increased during the holiday, but supply pressure may ease with more maintenance [27]. - PVC and caustic soda prices: PVC may be low - level volatile due to weak domestic demand. Caustic soda's profitability improved, but downstream demand is weak [28]. - PX and PTA prices are driven by oil prices. Supply is contracting, but polyester industry's centralized production cuts are a potential risk [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices are weak. Supply is temporarily contracting, but short - term imports are high, and the price is affected by oil prices [29]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by raw materials. Pay attention to trade frictions and terminal orders after the holiday [30]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are volatile. The US soybean planting season is important. The domestic supply pattern will shift from tight to loose. Soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to be volatile. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic soybean supply pattern will change [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil: The supply of rapeseed meal may ease in the long - term. Pay attention to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [36]. - Corn prices are volatile. Port inventory pressure decreased, and downstream starch production increased. Pay attention to market divergence [38]. - Hog prices are stable during the holiday. Future supply is expected to increase, and pay attention to the decline in spot prices [39]. - Egg prices are expected to be weak. Supply is sufficient, and demand will be weak in the off - season and during the rainy season [40]. - Cotton prices: US cotton rebounded, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and external demand is under pressure [41]. - Sugar prices are volatile. Brazil's new - season supply is expected to be sufficient, and pay attention to weather in Guangxi [42]. - Apple prices are volatile. Spot sales are good, and inventory is low. Pay attention to new - season production [43]. Group 6: Others - Container shipping index (European line) is expected to be volatile and weak. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the far - month contract is affected by tariff expectations and geopolitical risks [20]. - Wood prices are weak. Supply is decreasing, and demand is entering the off - season. The price is expected to be weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [44]. - Pulp prices are weak. Inventory is high, and downstream procurement is cautious. The fundamental situation remains weak [45]. - Stock index futures may recover in the short - term following the improvement of global risk appetite. The market style may shift to technology - growth [46]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be in a range - bound pattern. Manufacturing expansion slowed, and risk appetite recovered [47].

铜金属行业研究报告 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 供给受限需求持续提升，或支撑铜价长期上行 ——铜金属行业研究报告 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： [Table_Main] 行业研究|有色金属|铜 证券研究报告 铜应用领域广泛，近年已成为多国争夺的战略性矿产资源之一 铜具有优良的延展性、导热性、导电性和耐腐蚀能力，被广泛应用于 电气、机械制造、建筑工业、交通运输等领域，在金属材料的消费中 仅次于钢铁和铝。近年来，铜在战略性新兴产业有较广泛的应用，成 为欧美等国家高度关注和争夺的战略性矿产资源之一。中国作为全球 第四大铜生产国和最大的铜消费国，近年来国内产量增长有限，国内 铜产量远不能满足需求，对外依存度持续攀升并达到 80%以上，未来 也将是我国争夺的重要战略性矿产资源之一。 供给端：全球铜矿供应增长受限，我国主导全球铜冶炼产能 2014-2019 年，全球铜储量从约 7 亿吨增长至 8.7 亿吨，年均复合增 长率约 4.4%。2020-2024 年，受全球新增铜矿减少等原因，全球储量 增速明显放缓，且在 2024 年储量有所下降，仅为 98000 万吨，同比 下降 ...

展望后市，世界政治、经济格局的不确定性将维持高位，市场短期波动放大的趋势或仍将延续。当前阶 段可以考虑定投、网格等方式逢低布局中证A500ETF（159338）等宽基标的，以应对市场波动。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证A500ETF联接A（022448）、联接C（022449）。 注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变 动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩 的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 A股三大指数涨幅扩大，市场逾4700股上涨，中证A500ETF（159338）涨超1%。 消息面上，近期新华保险与中国人寿宣布将各出资100亿元认购由国丰兴华发起的私募基金份额，合计 规模200亿元，该基金主要投资于中证A500指数成分股中符合条件的大型上市公司A+H股。 中证A500ETF（159338）跟踪中证A500指数（代码：000510）从中国A股市场中选取市值较大、流动性 良好的500只股票作为指数样本。与沪深300指数形成互补，中证A500指 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations to provide investment suggestions and price trend outlooks for each sector [2][4][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.85%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.3 billion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. There were positive macro news such as the increase in the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the "May Day" holiday. It is suggested to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may return to fundamentals. With the weakening of manufacturing PMI in April, economic growth in the second quarter may be under pressure. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity remains supportive, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate downward in the long - run after short - term fluctuations [6] - **Precious Metals**: Although the prices of gold and silver were weak during the "May Day" holiday, the medium - term driving factors for the rise in gold prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and wait to buy on dips after the correction. For silver, it is suggested to wait and see for now [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: During the "May Day" holiday, LME copper stocks decreased, and domestic refined copper production is expected to increase slightly in May. If the Sino - US trade situation eases, copper prices may continue to rise, but there are also pressures such as inflation expectations and weakening supply - demand relationships [11] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded during the holiday. If Sino - US relations improve, aluminum prices may rebound further, but the weakening domestic manufacturing industry poses a challenge to the demand for aluminum [12] - **Zinc**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and there is a risk of a decline in zinc prices due to the expected increase in social inventory and weakening downstream demand [13] - **Lead**: The lead market shows that lead ore inventory is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and move in a box - shaped range in the medium - term [14][15] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. With weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in intermediate product production in May, it is recommended to short nickel on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease in the future. With the impact of tariffs on demand, the price of tin may decline [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations, cost valuation decline, and the market may further test the industry's price acceptance [18] - **Alumina**: The supply surplus situation persists, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of raw materials is high, and supply is expected to tighten. The market for 304 stainless steel is expected to gradually improve [21] 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weakening trend. The overall supply - demand structure of steel has no obvious contradictions, but the market is affected by overseas exports and production restriction rumors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [23][24] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main contract is likely to be weak [25][26] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass is expected to be weak, and the supply of soda ash is at a high level. Although there is some support from demand, the medium - term supply is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [28][29] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is not recommended to buy on dips [34][35] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose slightly during the holiday. There are different views on the market, with bulls focusing on potential production cuts and bears on weak demand. It is recommended to take a moderately bullish short - term approach [37][39] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's production increase has been realized. It is recommended to take profits on short positions on dips and consider short - term long positions in the positive spread [40] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41] - **Urea**: The market has high supply and low demand. If export restrictions are relaxed, it may boost the market. It is recommended to hold long positions for those who have already entered the market at low prices and wait for a better entry opportunity for new investors [42] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in the price of pure benzene and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [43][45] - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. Although inventory is decreasing, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, but the expected inventory reduction has not been realized. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [47] - **PTA**: The supply of PTA is still in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. However, the short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies following the trend of crude oil [48] - **Para - Xylene**: PX is also in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. The short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies with the trend of crude oil [49] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of PE may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price is expected to fluctuate [50] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The cost of PP has some support, and the price is expected to be slightly bearish in May [51] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly during the holiday. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term market sentiment and wait and see in the short - term [54] - **Eggs**: The egg price was stable during the holiday, but it is expected to be weak in May. It is recommended to short on rallies [55] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of domestic soybean meal is expected to decline in the future due to sufficient supply, while the price of US soybeans has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading rhythm [56][58] - **Oils and Fats**: The price of palm oil is under pressure due to production increase and other factors. The demand for US soybean oil may be boosted. The price of oils and fats is expected to decline, but there is a possibility of support in the medium - term if the macro - economy stabilizes [59][61] - **Sugar**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, and the price may decline. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a risk of decline in the future [62][64] - **Cotton**: Affected by tariffs and the end of the consumption peak season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes [65][66]

民生证券近日发布有色金属周报：本周（04/28-04/30）上证综指下跌0.49%，沪深300指 数下跌0.43%，SW有色指数下跌0.81%，贵金属COMEX黄金下跌-1.00%，COMEX白银下 跌-1.01%。工业金属LME铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动+1.11%、+0.83%、 +0.57%、+1.28%、+0.35%、+1.79%，工业金属库存LME铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变 动-2.36%、-2.48%、-5.27%、-4.14%、-1.44%、-2.65%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 贵金属：市场对中美达成贸易协议的乐观态度，削弱了避险资产，金价短期回落，美元 走弱大趋势下继续看好贵金属价格后续表现。目前市场对中美达成贸易协议的乐观态度，削 弱了避险资产，对金价反弹造成限制。中长期来看，去美元中心化+美元信用弱化为主线， 全球贸易担忧情绪仍存，叠加俄乌冲突不断升级，看好金价中枢上移。白银价格受金价回落 影响也有所回落，但工业属性利好使得其回落幅度小于黄金，后续若看到金价反弹，银价弹 性相对更高，价格有望创历史新高。重点推荐：万国黄金集团、赤峰黄金、山金国际、招金 矿业、山东黄金、中金黄金、湖 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has dropped to a new low for the same period in 2023, supporting a positive outlook for copper prices as macroeconomic expectations improve [1]. - As of April 30, 2025, the SHFE copper closing price was 77,220 RMB/ton, down 0.9% from the previous week, while the LME copper closing price was 9,366 USD/ton, down 0.1% [1]. - The copper industry is currently experiencing a divergence between macroeconomic pressures and supply-demand tensions, with domestic electrolytic copper inventory at a near five-year low providing price support [1][2]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 28.7% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 2.7% [2]. - As of April 30, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 836,000 tons, up 4.2% week-on-week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across the three major exchanges totaled 431,000 tons, the highest for the same period in nearly six years, down 4.5% week-on-week [2]. Supply - In April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, up 0.3% month-on-month and up 14.3% year-on-year [3]. - The copper concentrate production in China for December 2024 was 152,000 tons, up 9.5% month-on-month and up 6.9% year-on-year [2]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,371 RMB/ton as of April 30, 2025, down 285 RMB/ton from the previous week [2]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate was 89.45%, down 1.78 percentage points week-on-week [3]. - The production of household air conditioners is expected to grow by 14.3% year-on-year in July 2025, indicating strong demand in the home appliance sector [3][97]. - The operating rate for brass rods, which account for 4.2% of domestic copper demand, was 54.4% in March 2025, up 14 percentage points month-on-month but down 8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Futures - As of April 30, 2025, the active SHFE copper contract had a holding of 169,000 lots, up 1.5% week-on-week [4]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 19,000 lots, down 21.8% week-on-week [4]. - The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise in 2025 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Minmetals Resources [4].

原油、黄金价格双双重挫 五一期间，国内期货市场休市，但国际大宗商品市场却风云变幻，原油、黄金、铜等主要产品价格承压 波动。 4月30日~5月3日，COMEX黄金期货累计下跌约80美元，盘中跌破每盎司3300美元关口，一度触及每盎 司3209.4美元低位，5月5日由跌转涨；COMEX铜、WTI原油等主要期货品种也高位下挫，分别累计下 跌约4.14%、7.58%。 宏观面上，光大期货研究报告称，美国多项关键经济数据相继公布，整体表现呈现出喜忧参半的态势。 关税破局谈判的消息不断涌现，推动市场风险偏好持续回升，进而促使海外大类资产呈现出"股强债 弱"的格局。 聚酯产业链方面，成本端原油市场遭重创背景下，聚酯交易相对清淡。一德期货分析，PTA由于短期检 修供需大幅去库，但6月以后随着装置开启以及新产能投产，供应增加叠加需求下滑格局下，PTA期货 价格承压。乙二醇方面煤化工检修高峰已过，供应环比回升，需求方面后期又有下滑预期，供需格局整 体偏宽松。整体看，聚酯产业链成本端支撑减弱，需求走弱格局下价格震荡偏弱。 黄金重挫，贵金属波动 贵金属市场在五一期间也经历了剧烈波动。 此外，假期期间全球投资者关注的2025年伯克希尔 ...