1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Based on the gradually increasing policy expectations in China, it is recommended to emphasize the offensiveness of portfolio allocation under the "balanced allocation" strategy framework. Long - position overweight is recommended for stock indices and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). Precious metals should be standard - allocated in the short term and overweighted at low levels after volatility stabilizes. For different asset classes, the driving logics in the quarterly dimension vary: the domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts; treasury bonds can be considered for bull - steepening opportunities under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited, and a standard allocation is generally recommended; precious metals have high short - term volatility, and investors are advised to build positions at low levels after volatility stabilizes; non - ferrous metals perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry; black commodities return to a weak and oscillatory state after the rebound driven by winter storage; crude oil is generally oscillatory and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas**: Trump may announce the nomination for the new Fed Chair in January. Hassett is the most popular candidate, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years. The geopolitical event in Venezuela over the weekend has a relatively limited short - term positive effect on crude oil and precious metals. Venezuela has about 17% of the world's oil reserves but its actual daily output is only about 1 million barrels, accounting for 1% of the global supply [5]. - **Domestic**: Policy expectations are rising in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The 2026 national subsidy policy has been released, with some optimizations compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two important" construction projects and the central budget investment plan for 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and approved or approved major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds issued at the end of October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [5]. 3.2 Asset Views - **Stock Indices**: It is recommended to overweight. The domestic equity market is expected to strengthen driven by policy expectations and the expectation of front - loaded fiscal efforts [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to maintain a standard allocation. There are opportunities for bull - steepening under the expectation of easing, but the odds are limited [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Standard - allocate in the short term due to high volatility, and overweight at low levels after volatility stabilizes. The short - term positive effect of the Venezuela event on precious metals is limited, and they may show a high - opening and falling - back trend if the conflict does not escalate [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Overweight. They perform relatively better supported by the macro and industry [5]. - **Black Commodities**: After the rebound driven by winter storage, they return to a weak and oscillatory state [5]. - **Crude Oil**: Stay on the sidelines as it is generally oscillatory [5]. 3.3 View Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is the situation of incremental funds [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Use option covered strategies to increase returns. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the liquidity of the option market [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment at the long end is still weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the implementation of monetary policy [6]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of loose liquidity is clear, and the structural shortage of silver spot persists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the US fundamental performance, Fed monetary policy, and the trend of geopolitical conflicts [6]. 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The near - term is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and the far - term is concerned about the risk of resumed voyages. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the 2026 shipping company's resumption arrangements, the freight rates of long - term contracts signed at the end of the year, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments to freight rates [6]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The cost performance is differentiated, and the market is in a weak adjustment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the progress of special bond issuance, steel export volume, iron - making water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - making water production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy - level dynamics [6]. - **Coke**: Four rounds of price cuts have been implemented, and the bearish sentiment still exists. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal mines in the production area are gradually resuming production, but downstream procurement is still cautious. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Silicon Iron**: The electricity price has slightly loosened, and attention should be paid to production control trends. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure is difficult to solve, and the upward movement of the market is blocked. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - **Glass**: The actual demand is weak, and inventory is continuously transferred. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the spot sales and production [6]. - **Soda Ash**: After the end of maintenance, production has recovered, and the upstream inventory has increased significantly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the soda ash inventory [6]. 3.3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously accumulating, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected resumption of ore production, more - than - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [6]. - **Aluminum**: The Mozal aluminum plant is facing shutdown, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the rebound space of zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are macro - turning risks and more - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply [6]. - **Lead**: The willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery has improved, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [6]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel mines, and nickel prices are rebounding. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices drives the stainless - steel market to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth [6]. - **Tin**: Downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are the expectations of resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices are rising. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and policy changes [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon continues to have high volatility. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are more - than - expected resumption of supply and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory depletion slows down, and lithium prices are under oscillatory pressure. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and oil prices continue to oscillate. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [8]. - **LPG**: The strong - reality situation is loosening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - **Asphalt**: The political turmoil in Venezuela causes the asphalt futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key point to watch is the crude oil price [8]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions occur frequently, and methanol is oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - energy and actual overseas shutdown dynamics [8]. - **Urea**: After - holiday trading is active, and urea is stable and strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force of ethylene glycol is general. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are fluctuations in coal and oil prices and the rhythm of port inventory [8]. - **PX**: There is a repeated game between weak terminal demand and strong expectations, and it is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and disruptions in refining and chemical plants [8]. - **PTA**: The TA processing fee is at the upper end of the range, and the continuous upward space is limited. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - level abnormalities, and insufficient support from downstream polyester loads [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Weak terminal demand restricts price elasticity. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the demand change rhythm around the Spring Festival [8]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: More device maintenance is scheduled in January, and the basis is firm. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are the implementation of bottle - grade PET enterprise production - cut targets and sea freight [8]. - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of reduced PDH operation, and PL is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [8]. - **PP**: Maintenance increases, and PP is oscillating. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and plastic is considered oscillatory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [8]. - **Styrene**: Driven by exports and a warm commodity atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [8]. - **PVC**: Overseas device shutdowns cause PVC to rebound strongly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are decreasing. Caustic soda is cautiously weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are market sentiment, operation, and demand [8]. 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are adjusting downward. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are customs policies, South American weather, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Trading is gradually resuming, and prices are oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are demand, the macro - situation, and weather [8]. - **Hogs**: The sow inventory decreased in December, and the far - month futures market rebounded. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market maintains an oscillatory trend. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key point to watch is sharp fluctuations in crude oil [8]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are production and demand [8]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are fluctuating within a narrow range and are still under pressure in the medium term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and falling, and the key points to watch are imports and northern hemisphere production [8]. - **Pulp**: The market is driven by funds and the macro - situation, and pulp futures are oscillating repeatedly. The short - term judgment is oscillatory and rising, and the key points to watch are macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [8]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The spot is stable, and the market is strong. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are sales and production, education policies, and paper mill operation dynamics [8]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. The short - term judgment is oscillatory, and the key points to watch are shipment volume and dispatch volume [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly. Factors such as the restructuring of the international political and economic landscape, the Fed's loose monetary policy, the improvement of the global economic growth outlook, and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry will drive the upward trend. However, the large influx of investment funds also means significant price volatility. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - biased trading mindset but strictly control the position size. Long - hedgers should hedge in batches as soon as possible, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. For conservative traders, they can consider cross - variety arbitrage by going long on silver and platinum and short on gold and palladium [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The decline of the US ISM manufacturing PMI in December 2025 to 47.9% supported the market's expectation of the Fed's continued loose monetary policy. Trump's expression of the desire to annex Greenland, along with liquidity premiums and geopolitical risks, pushed the precious metals sector to continue its strong performance. However, London gold faced selling pressure around $4,500 per ounce, and the market was cautious before the release of the December non - farm payroll data. It is believed that the correction at the end of December 2025 has fully released the adjustment risks accumulated within precious metals. This week, attention should be paid to the situations in Venezuela and Russia - Ukraine, the US December non - farm payroll data, and China's price and financial data [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Although Trump's 2.0 government has basically completed the internal restructuring of federal agencies and the reconstruction of the foreign trade system, Trump will still focus on promoting the MAGA reform process in 2026, with an emphasis on consolidating the geopolitical strategic space in the Western Hemisphere, which may lead to a significant increase in geopolitical risks. The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of central banks around the world will continue to boost the demand for reserve diversification, the strategic value of rare precious metals, and liquidity premiums in the precious metals sector. In 2026, the precious metals sector will continue the medium - term upward trend since 2024. The improvement of global economic growth momentum and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry will make the performance of silver and platinum stronger than that of gold [5]. Main Macro Events/Data - **Venezuelan Situation**: Venezuelan President Maduro, who was arrested by the US, pleaded not guilty in a US court on Monday, and his wife Cilia Flores also pleaded not guilty. The next court session is scheduled for March 17. In Caracas, Maduro's vice - president Rodriguez was sworn in as the interim president of Venezuela, expressing support for Maduro but not indicating resistance to US actions. The Trump administration plans to meet with executives of US oil companies later this week to discuss increasing Venezuela's oil production after the arrest of Maduro [17]. - **US Manufacturing Index**: The US ISM manufacturing index in December dropped to 47.9, the lowest since October 2024, and it has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months. New orders further shrank, and input costs continued to rise, indicating that the industry is still deeply affected by the Trump administration's import tariffs. Although the possibility of a short - term manufacturing recovery is small, economists still hope for a rebound this year as Trump's tax - cut policy takes effect [17]. - **Trump's Desire to Annex Greenland**: US President Trump has repeatedly expressed his hope to annex Greenland. He said in an interview with The Atlantic on Sunday that "we really need Greenland, absolutely. We need it for defense." The leader of Greenland responded that it was enough, and Denmark's European allies also reiterated that the future of this Arctic island must be determined by its people [17].

Group 1 - The performance of the global commodity market is characterized by three distinct trends: oil prices are declining, nickel prices are surging, and gold is steadily increasing [3][4] - Oil prices have dropped by 2% to around $57 per barrel, as traders reassess the potential for a resolution to the Ukraine conflict, which could alleviate energy security concerns in Europe and highlight the oversupply in the oil market [3][4] - Nickel prices have surged over 10%, marking the largest single-day increase in over three years, driven by supply risks from Indonesia and strong market interest in the metal, reflecting expectations for continued growth in the electric vehicle sector [3][4] Group 2 - Gold has shown a moderate increase, remaining above $4,490 per ounce, as investors shift focus from geopolitical events to macroeconomic indicators, particularly upcoming U.S. economic data [4][5] - The current commodity market is experiencing a "logical differentiation," with oil reflecting geopolitical risk and oversupply, nickel driven by strong demand for green technologies, and gold responding to macroeconomic uncertainties [4][5] - Investors are advised to adopt targeted strategies based on their focus areas: caution in oil, opportunities in nickel, and the continued value of gold for asset allocation and risk hedging [5]

Group 1 - The best-performing asset globally last year was precious metals, particularly silver, with significant fluctuations at year-end due to forced liquidation trading behavior [1][2] - The market is beginning to rethink and discuss the trends of precious metals for 2026, with expectations that gold prices may be weaker than in 2025, while copper is anticipated to perform well [1][2] Group 2 - The surge in gold prices in 2025 is fundamentally linked to the pricing of a significant geopolitical event, specifically the U.S. overturning WTO rules, which has started to undermine the credibility of the dollar [2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and tariff disputes are seen as a means rather than an end, with the real focus shifting towards technological sovereignty and supply security [2][3] Group 3 - In 2026, the expectation is for a capital expenditure expansion driven by AI, which is crucial for U.S. growth, asset stability, and liquidity, potentially stabilizing the dollar above 90 [3] - There are two scenarios for 2026 regarding AI capital expenditure: one where it continues, leading to adjustments in gold prices, and another where it fails, potentially triggering another surge in gold prices [3]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.99% and the S&P 500 rising 0.6%, both reaching historical highs, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.65% [1] - Tesla shares fell by 4.1%, while Pinduoduo rose nearly 3% and Qualcomm increased by over 3% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declined by 0.78%, with Hesai Technologies rising over 10% and Alibaba dropping more than 3% [1] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil futures fell by 2%, and Brent crude oil futures decreased by 1.71% to below $61 per barrel [1] - COMEX gold futures rose by over 1% to $4,493.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by over 6% to $81.20 per ounce [1] - Spot platinum rose by over 7%, and spot palladium increased by 3% to $1,761.18 per ounce [1] - Shanghai silver night trading rose by approximately 4.9% [1] Corporate Developments - Elon Musk's xAI completed a $20 billion Series E funding round, with investors including Nvidia, and the company's valuation may reach $230 billion [1] - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated that the performance and energy efficiency of the new chip have improved tenfold compared to the previous generation, with optimistic revenue expectations [1] - Nvidia is collaborating with Universal Music and PepsiCo on AI-related projects, and the next-generation chips are now in full production [1] Regulatory and Political News - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on the Trump global tariff case on January 9, with market predictions indicating a 70% probability of government loss [1] - The MSCI has decided not to implement the removal of digital asset treasury companies in the February 2026 index adjustment, leading to a post-market surge of 6% for Strategy [1] - The Federal Reserve Board member Milan called for a rate cut of over 100 basis points this year, with the overnight reverse repurchase agreement usage at $2.582 billion on Tuesday [1] International Relations - The U.S. conducted airstrikes on multiple targets within Venezuela on January 3, with several Latin American countries expressing support for Venezuela and condemning U.S. actions [1] - Discussions are ongoing between the U.S. and Venezuela regarding the potential export of Venezuelan crude oil to the U.S. [1] - Israel reported positive progress in security talks with Syria, with military actions resulting in the deaths of two Hezbollah members in southern Lebanon [1] - Saudi Arabia will fully lift QFI restrictions next month, opening its financial market to all foreign investors, leading to a nearly 3% pre-market rise in the iShares MSCI Saudi ETF [1] - The "Willing Alliance" meeting reached a consensus on providing post-war security guarantees for Ukraine, with the UK and France signing a declaration to send troops to Ukraine if a peace agreement is reached with Russia [1]

在美国芝商所两次上调保证金之后，黄金白银等贵金属大幅震荡下，仍然保持高位上冲姿态，铜、铝等 基本金属则在不断刷新历史高位。 在经过2025年超60%的涨幅后，投资机构对于2026年黄金涨幅趋向于谨慎，但是对于涨幅超146%的白 银仍然充满想象力。而国投白银LOF（161226）份额仍在创下历史高点。相对于贵金属而言，期货市场 资金更偏爱铜铝等基本金属，特别是铜在两个交易日资金大幅净流入。 白银比黄金还有想象空间 清和泉资本认为，2026年最大的投资机会之一，就是战略资源股，如铜、铝、煤等。当前这些上游品种 供需均处于平衡或紧缺的状态，中上游品种则依托中国成本优势，盈利水平处于历史高位，而且这些行 业均存在具备全球竞争力的企业，包括成本水平、管理水平等，其中铜的公司成长属性高一点，铝和煤 炭的价值属性更突出；这些行业中，估值低的品种PE在10倍左右，高的在15倍左右，中期性价比依然 十分可观。 1月6日，国内黄金主力2602合约收盘时，报价继续站上1000元/克关口上方。而白银主力2604合约，收 盘价格创下历史新高，报19452元/千克，涨幅7.06%，成交量和持仓量均大幅增长，其中成交量增加了 125.8万 ...

在经过2025年超64%的涨幅后，投资机构对于2026年黄金涨幅趋向于谨慎，但是对于涨幅超146%的白银仍然 充满想象力。比如，美国银行金属研究报告认为，黄金今年仍将是关键的投资组合对冲工具，预计2026年黄金 均价将达到每盎司4538美元（目前已经4458美元），而白银价格可能飙升至每盎司135至309美元的峰值区间。 在美国芝商所两次上调保证金之后，黄金白银等贵金属大幅震荡下，仍然保持高位上冲姿态，铜、铝等基 本金属则在不断刷新历史高位。 在经过2025年超60%的涨幅后，投资机构对于2026年黄金涨幅趋向于谨慎，但是对于涨幅超146%的白银仍然 充满想象力。而国投白银LOF（161226）份额仍在创下历史高点。相对于贵金属而言，期货市场资金更偏爱铜 铝等基本金属，特别是铜在两个交易日资金大幅净流入。 白银比黄金还有想象空间 1月6日，国内黄金主力2602合约收盘时，报价继续站上1000元/克关口上方。而白银主力2604合约，收盘价格 创下历史新高，报19452元/千克，涨幅7.06%，成交量和持仓量均大幅增长，其中成交量增加了125.8万手，持 仓量大幅增加了3.8万手，在5日23.9万手基础上升高到2 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the convertible bond market in January 2026, driven by policy expectations and seasonal capital inflows, which are expected to create a "good start" for the market [6][17] - The central economic work conference has identified "technological innovation" and "expanding domestic demand" as key policy focuses, with related industry policy benefits expected to continue, directly boosting market risk appetite [6][17] - The convertible bond market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with the total size of publicly traded convertible bonds at approximately 527.1 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025, down 183.6 billion yuan from the beginning of 2025 [19] Group 2 - The report suggests focusing on growth styles in investment strategies, particularly in technology sectors such as aerospace, AI computing, semiconductor equipment, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from industry policy support [6][20] - The top ten convertible bond portfolio for January 2026 emphasizes aggressive and elastic sectors, with a focus on technology growth, cyclical recovery, and financial sectors [6][20] - Specific recommendations include increasing holdings in convertible bonds from companies like Yinbang, Zhenhua, and Yingliu in the technology sector, and focusing on cyclical sectors such as precious metals and chemicals [20][22]

Core Viewpoint - The price dynamics of silver and oil have diverged significantly, with silver prices surging while oil prices remain subdued, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of January 6, 2026, COMEX silver futures are trading around $77 per ounce, while WTI crude oil futures are at $58 per barrel, resulting in a silver-to-oil ratio of approximately 1.3 [1]. - Over the past six months, oil prices have dropped over 32% from a high of $74 per barrel to a low of $50, while silver prices have doubled from around $40 per ounce to a peak of $80 [2]. - The last time silver was more expensive than oil was about 45 years ago, with historical instances showing significant fluctuations in the silver-to-oil ratio [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current silver-to-oil ratio fluctuates between 1.2 and 1.3, with silver showing strong rebound momentum despite a recent drop from its historical high [3]. - Financial institutions are increasing their net long positions in COMEX silver futures, indicating strong bullish sentiment, while oil prices are experiencing a decline due to oversupply concerns [3][5]. - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela has limited impact on oil prices, as the country’s production capacity is currently low, and global supply remains excessive [3][5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The contrasting performance of silver and oil reflects a re-evaluation of their values amid changing supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic conditions [4]. - Silver is increasingly recognized for its industrial applications, particularly in electronics and solar energy, which are expected to drive demand, although growth in solar installations is projected to slow down [4][5]. - Oil supply remains weak globally, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration projecting record-high oil production, reinforcing expectations of oversupply in the market [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the silver-to-oil ratio may remain above 1.0, significant further increases are unlikely, with key factors such as OPEC+ production cuts and global energy policies influencing future price relationships [5].

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with Zijin Mining's market capitalization surpassing 1 trillion yuan for the first time, and Luoyang Molybdenum reaching a historical high [1][3] - The popular non-ferrous metal ETF, Huabao (159876), saw a maximum intraday increase of 4.4%, closing up 4.21%, marking four consecutive days of gains [1] - The ETF experienced a significant increase in trading volume, with a total turnover of 72.79 million yuan, a 47% increase compared to the previous period [1] Group 2 - The titanium dioxide industry has seen a joint price increase announcement, leading to a surge in stocks such as Anning Co. and Vanadium Titanium Co. [3] - As of January 5, 2025 earnings forecasts for four leading companies in the non-ferrous metal sector predict double-digit growth in net profits year-on-year, with Zijin Mining expected to achieve a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan, a growth of 59% to 62% [3][4] - Longjiang Securities anticipates that the price increase and liquidity will create a favorable environment for precious metals, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to see a strong performance due to economic recovery and supply-demand optimization [4][6] Group 3 - The Huabao non-ferrous metal ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better capture of the sector's beta performance [4] - The ETF has seen a net subscription of 39 million units in a single day, following a total net inflow of 56.48 million yuan over the previous four days, indicating strong market interest [1][3] - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metal sector is optimistic, with expectations of a "super cycle" driven by various market dynamics [4]