称多县城。 本报记者 程宦宁 摄 本报记者 王 臻 平均海拔3000米的青海高原，雪山伴草原、古城融新城，三江湟水滋养沃土、见证变迁。这片兼具生态使命与人文底蕴的高原热土，正以独特韵律，奏响新 型城镇化与乡村振兴同频共振的时代乐章。 青海始终以民生为本筑牢发展根基，实现城镇新建绿色建筑全覆盖，改善18.67万户农牧民居住条件，稳步推进城镇老旧小区改造与保障性住房建设。交通 路网四通八达牵起城乡发展脉络，特色产业集群蓬勃崛起夯实共同发展根基，城镇现代活力与乡村乡土底蕴深度交融，走出一条独具高原特色的城乡融合发 展之路。 扮靓城乡"颜值" 共绘宜居同心圆 互助土族自治县南门峡镇峡口村的清晨，从保洁员的忙碌身影开启。 8名保洁员每日7时准时到岗，15个封闭垃圾斗在"数字乡村"平台的智能摄像头下实现实时监控。"动动手指就能掌握垃圾是否溢满，远程喇叭还能直接沟 通，办事效率翻倍，真正实现'干部少跑腿、群众不受扰'。"村党支部书记权国成滑动手机屏幕，展示着智慧治理的便捷。 走进互助乡村，一幅宜居新画卷徐徐展开：整洁的柏油路延伸至家家户户，雅致的庭院里鲜花与分类垃圾桶相映成趣，智能监控如"云端哨兵"默默守护。谁 能想到，这 ...

昨天殷勇市长所作的政府工作报告中，为2026年明确了"任务清单"，确定了今年经济社会发展主要预期 目标。 其中2026年地区生产总值（GDP）预计增长5%左右，一般公共预算收入增长4%左右，城镇调查失业率 控制在5%以内。 5%左右的地区生产总值增速目标备受各界关注。 展望2026年，北京GDP实现5%左右的增长目标有足够的底气和信心，一系列政策支撑与之相呼应。例 如，2026年北京将强化科技创新策源能力，抢占科技发展制高点。同时畅通教育科技人才良性循环，提 升科技成果转化效能，打通成果转化堵点卡点。发展壮大高精尖产业，拓展现代服务业优势，提高两业 融合发展水平……作为国民经济核算的核心指标，设定5%左右的增速，统领着一个地区的经济社会发 展，连着国计民生，兼顾了可能与需要，积极可为、实事求是。未来五年北京必将充分挖掘经济潜能， 坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。 5%左右这一目标的制定，应该说是北京这座超大型城市对新形势下做好经济工作的规律性认识的集中 体现。 文/本报记者 武文娟 2026年是"十五五"开局之年，做好经济工作，迈好"十五五"时期发展第一步 ...

2026 年 01 月 25 日 地方债发行提速，关注风格切换——资产配置周 报 —固定收益周报 投资要点 ▌ 一、国家资产负债表分析 负债端。最新更新的数据显示，2025 年 12 月实体部门负债 增速录得 8.4%，前值 8.6%，符合预期。预计 2026 年 1 月实 体部门负债增速继续下降至 8.3%附近。金融部门方面，上周 资金面边际上略有收敛，符合预期。本周地方债发行节奏似 乎有所加快，若能在 2 月持续，可带动实体部门负债增速在 2 月出现轻微反弹，但 2 月资金面边际上进一步松弛概率有 限。合并来看，2 月底之前我们对权益市场持乐观看法，关 注后续风格能否由目前的成长持续占优逐步向均衡、甚至价 值占优方向转化；而若上述情景发生，2 月债市调整风险有 所上升。2025 年 12 月 24 日，央行发布四季度例会通稿，明 确指出，"使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、 价格总水平预期目标相匹配"，这表明稳定宏观杠杆率的大 方向仍然没有动摇，等待 2026 年两会给出定量财政目标。 财政政策。上周合计政府债（包括国债和地方债）净增加 6214 亿元（高于计划的净增加 5075 亿元），按计划下 ...

2026 年 01 月 25 日 策略类●证券研究报告 板块震荡活跃走势未改，但性价比的重要性或略有提升 新股专题 投资要点 新股周观点：上周，新股次新板块延续震荡活跃走势，但活跃方向可能略有变化， 市场对于性价比的关注可能有所升温。短期来看，考虑到本轮新股活跃周期开启时 间尚短，且资金交投活跃度依然较高，预计本轮震荡活跃行情有望继续演绎；但考 虑到元旦之后情绪回暖颇为急促，部分方向拉升或也较为迅猛，不排除活跃资金接 下来将在追逐人气主题和追逐相对性价比之间反复横跳，轮动或将是常态。我们维 持之前观点，建议继续积极择机的同时，局部要重视节奏和取舍。 （1）上周沪深新股次新板块延续活跃走势；假设以 2025 年以来上市的沪深新股 次新板块比较来看，期间板块平均涨幅 2.3%，实现正收益占比约 70.7%。 （2）随着元旦之后新股活跃周期正式拉开，新股交投热情相对较高，赚钱效应也 相对凸显；但同时需要注意的，近一周多，在短线情绪过热扰动之下，新股细分板 块间热度切换更为凸显，业绩预期稳健且股价相对平抑的性价比方向、和资金长期 关注的人气主题方向似乎形成轮动迹象。短期来看，考虑到本轮新股活跃周期开启 时间尚不足 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.11%, while the ChiNext Index is down 0.34% and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index up 2.41% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - CITIC Securities reports that market confidence is gradually recovering, suggesting that sectors with logical narratives at relatively low valuations may see recovery [1] - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the short-term market will continue to exhibit a differentiated pattern, supported by high elasticity sectors attracting new capital and a stable RMB exchange rate [2] - Huajin Securities notes that the short-term economic and profit recovery trends are weak, with PPI expected to rise and A-share profits maintaining a structural recovery trend [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - CITIC Securities recommends increasing allocations in non-bank sectors (securities, insurance) and enhancing returns through domestic demand or high-growth sectors [1] - Zhongtai Securities anticipates that after the Spring Festival, the market's pricing logic will shift from risk preference and valuation expansion to performance verification and profit growth [2] - Everbright Securities advises investors to maintain a steady approach and hold stocks through the holiday, predicting a new upward momentum post-Spring Festival [4] Group 3: Sector Focus - Everbright Securities highlights sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals as key areas of focus, depending on market style [4] - The commercial aerospace sector is noted for its recent recovery, with specific sub-sectors like space computing and upstream materials expected to remain active [5]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model: AI CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio - **Construction Idea**: The model is based on the full-spectrum fusion factor, which integrates both high-frequency and low-frequency price-volume data using deep learning and multi-task learning techniques[6][7] - **Construction Process**: 1. Train 27 high-frequency factors using a deep learning model to obtain high-frequency deep learning factors 2. Use multi-task learning to extract end-to-end features from low-frequency price-volume data, resulting in low-frequency multi-task factors 3. Combine the high-frequency and low-frequency factors to form the full-spectrum fusion factor[6] - **Evaluation**: The model shows significant excess returns and a high information ratio, indicating strong performance and effective risk management[1][7] - **Backtest Results**: - Annualized excess return: 21.60% - Annualized tracking error: 6.06% - Information ratio (IR): 3.57 - Maximum drawdown of excess return: 7.55% - Calmar ratio of excess return: 2.86[1][7] Model: LLM-FADT Text Stock Selection Strategy - **Construction Idea**: The model enhances the BERT-FADT strategy by incorporating additional interpretations from a large language model (LLM), including new title interpretations, market catalysts, implied meanings, potential risks, and return guidance[2][14][17] - **Construction Process**: 1. Input six types of text into a fine-tuned FinBERT model: original text, new title interpretations, market catalysts, implied meanings, potential risks, and return guidance 2. Convert these texts into text feature vectors 3. Train an XGBoost model using these enriched text features[17] - **Evaluation**: The LLM-FADT strategy is more stable and has smaller excess drawdowns compared to the BERT-FADT strategy, showing better performance in extreme market conditions[2][14][20] - **Backtest Results**: - Annualized return: 30.10% - Annualized excess return: 25.52% - Sharpe ratio: 1.18 - Information ratio (IR): 2.00[2][20][24] Model: AI Industry Rotation Model - **Construction Idea**: The model uses the full-spectrum fusion factor to score 32 primary industries and constructs a weekly rebalancing strategy by equally weighting the top 5 industries[3][38] - **Construction Process**: 1. Score each industry using the full-spectrum fusion factor based on the industry component stocks 2. Select the top 5 industries with the highest scores 3. Equally weight these industries and rebalance weekly[38][43] - **Evaluation**: The model effectively utilizes AI's feature extraction capabilities to capture patterns in multi-frequency price-volume data, complementing top-down strategies[3][38] - **Backtest Results**: - Annualized return: 26.87% - Annualized excess return: 19.02% - Maximum drawdown of excess return: 12.43% - Sharpe ratio of excess return: 1.85[3][41] Model: AI Thematic Index Rotation Model - **Construction Idea**: The model scores 133 thematic indices using the full-spectrum fusion factor and constructs a weekly rebalancing strategy by equally weighting the top 10 thematic indices[4][28] - **Construction Process**: 1. Score each thematic index using the full-spectrum fusion factor based on the index component stocks 2. Select the top 10 thematic indices with the highest scores 3. Equally weight these indices and rebalance weekly[28][31] - **Evaluation**: The model leverages AI to identify and capitalize on trends in thematic indices, providing a diversified and dynamic investment approach[4][28] - **Backtest Results**: - Annualized return: 16.92% - Annualized excess return: 9.37% - Maximum drawdown of excess return: 20.79% - Sharpe ratio of excess return: 0.73[4][30] Model Backtest Performance AI CSI 1000 Enhanced Portfolio - Annualized excess return: 21.60% - Annualized tracking error: 6.06% - Information ratio (IR): 3.57 - Maximum drawdown of excess return: 7.55% - Calmar ratio of excess return: 2.86[1][7] LLM-FADT Text Stock Selection Strategy - Annualized return: 30.10% - Annualized excess return: 25.52% - Sharpe ratio: 1.18 - Information ratio (IR): 2.00[2][20][24] AI Industry Rotation Model - Annualized return: 26.87% - Annualized excess return: 19.02% - Maximum drawdown of excess return: 12.43% - Sharpe ratio of excess return: 1.85[3][41] AI Thematic Index Rotation Model - Annualized return: 16.92% - Annualized excess return: 9.37% - Maximum drawdown of excess return: 20.79% - Sharpe ratio of excess return: 0.73[4][30]

【光大证券：近期以稳为主 但仍应持股过节】智通财经1月25日电，光大证券研报表示，保持稳健，持 股过节。参考之前的市场行情，认为春节前市场将会保持震荡，难以保持稳定的趋势，这主要与春节之 前投资者交易热度有所下行，以及微观流动性短期趋紧有关。从历史情况来看，春节前20个交易日，主 要指数上涨概率不足50%。预计春节之后市场将会迎来新一轮上行动力，春节后20个交易日主要指数上 行概率与平均涨幅均较高。因此建议投资者近期以稳为主，但仍应持股过节。行业方面，关注电子、电 力设备、有色金属等。若1月市场风格为成长，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为电子、电力设 备、通信、有色金属、汽车、国防军工；若1月份市场风格为防御，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业 分别为非银金融、电子、有色金属、电力设备、汽车、交通运输等。两种风格假设下，得分靠前行业具 有一定的相似性。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 转自：智通财经 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a spring rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.11% [12] - Short-term market focus is on low-position sectors, particularly cyclical Alpha (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) expanding towards cyclical turning points in construction materials, oil, and steel [1][13] - The current profitability in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and oil is nearing high levels, indicating increasing short-term resistance for cyclical trends [1][14] Group 2 - Global market risk appetite is on the rise, favoring equity assets, with recommendations for tactical overweight in A/H shares, US stocks, and gold, while suggesting underweight in US Treasuries and oil [2][15] - The upcoming economic work conference and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to lead to more aggressive economic policies and an expansion of the fiscal deficit [2][15] - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and the stable appreciation of the RMB are favorable for China's monetary easing in early 2026 [2][15] Group 3 - The technology sector remains the main focus of the current bull market, driven by the AI wave, with recommendations to pay attention to the application of AI in specific sectors [3][16] - Value sector opportunities are also worth considering, including certain resource products and real estate [3][16] - Consumer services may receive temporary attention as part of the sector allocation strategy [3][16] Group 4 - The market is expected to remain stable with a focus on holding positions through the upcoming holiday, as historical data suggests a less than 50% probability of major index increases in the 20 trading days before the Spring Festival [4][17] - Post-holiday, a new upward momentum is anticipated, with higher probabilities of index increases in the following 20 trading days [4][17] - Key sectors to watch include electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals, with a focus on both growth and defensive styles depending on market conditions [4][17] Group 5 - The spring rally is expected to enter its second phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 4200 points, reflecting a strong upward trend since late December [5][18] - The market is witnessing a divergence in fund flows, with significant inflows into margin financing while stock-type ETFs are experiencing outflows [5][18] - Attention is needed on macro policy expectations from the upcoming National People's Congress in March and the microeconomic fundamentals from the 2025 annual reports [5][18] Group 6 - The current average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.88 and 53.36, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][20] - The market is expected to focus on performance and industry trends, with a likelihood of maintaining a slight upward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index [8][20] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, batteries, and aerospace [8][20] Group 7 - The market is anticipated to continue its oscillation and consolidation phase, with ETF outflows and a temporary decline in margin financing [9][20] - Despite the market's cooling, overall trading enthusiasm remains, and a slow bull market expectation may lead to fluctuating market sentiments [9][20] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in the TMT sector, robotics, and non-ferrous metals, alongside a focus on banking and insurance due to favorable long-term funding conditions [9][20] Group 8 - The spring rally is expected to persist, with a significant increase in risk appetite in the A-share market, as evidenced by a 17-day consecutive rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [10][21] - The market liquidity environment is improving, supported by favorable external conditions and proactive internal policies [10][21] - Key investment themes include low-valuation high-dividend assets, technology-driven production, and domestic market expansion [10][21] Group 9 - The 2026 economic outlook is positive, with proactive monetary and fiscal policies expected to support stable economic growth and a continued "slow bull" market in A-shares [11][21] - February is anticipated to maintain the momentum of January's focus on technology and non-ferrous sectors, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [11][21] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors related to new productive forces, including AI, aerospace, and agriculture [11][21]

1月23日，省统计局、国家统计局山西调查总队联合发布了2025年全省经济运行情况。根据地区生产总 值统一核算结果，全年全省地区生产总值为25495.7亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长4.0%。其中， 第一产业增加值为1410.5亿元，增长4.5%；第二产业增加值为10305.0亿元，增长3.1%；第三产业增加 值为13780.2亿元，增长4.5%。 转自：山西经济日报 文｜山西经济日报记者 王蕾 农业生产平稳增长 粮食生产再创新高 全年全省实现农林牧渔业（包括农林牧渔服务业）增加值1502.0亿元，比上年增长4.5%。粮食播种面 积、亩产、总产实现三增。全省粮食总产量达到297.4亿斤，创历史新高，比上年增长1.2%。其中，夏 粮产量50.4亿斤、增长1.5%，秋粮产量247.0亿斤、增长1.2%；粮食播种面积4749.4万亩，增长0.5%；粮 食亩产313.0公斤，增长0.8%。 畜牧业生产持续向好。年末生猪存栏921.6万头，增长5.8%。全年生猪出栏1438.1万头，增长3.8%；牛 出栏80.2万头，增长10.5%；羊出栏851.6万只，增长1.3%；家禽出栏29848.9万只，增长18.6%。猪牛羊 ...

光大证券认为春节前市场将会保持震荡，难以保持稳定的趋势，这主要与春节之前投资者交易热度有所 下行，以及微观流动性短期趋紧有关。从历史情况来看，春节前20个交易日，主要指数上涨概率不足 50%。预计春节之后市场将会迎来新一轮上行动力，春节后20个交易日主要指数上行概率与平均涨幅均 较高。因此建议投资者近期以稳为主，但仍应持股过节。行业方面，关注电子、电力设备、有色金属 等。若1月市场风格为成长，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为电子、电力设备、通信、有色金 属、汽车、国防军工；若1月份市场风格为防御，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为非银金融、 电子、有色金属、电力设备、汽车、交通运输等。两种风格假设下，得分靠前行业具有一定的相似性。 主题方面，可继续关注商业航天。 ...