商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 26 日 对二甲苯：多 PX 空 PTA PTA：长丝计划检修，多 PX 空 PTA MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-23 | 6652 | 4716 | 4403 | 6450 | 3508 | | 2025-05-22 | 6614 | 4702 | 4411 | 6452 | 3505 | | 2025-05-21 | 6766 | 4788 | 4414 | 6544 | 3571 | | 2025-05-20 | 6668 | 4732 | 4413 | 6506 | 3556 | | 2025-05-19 | 6752 | 4776 | 4475 | 6544 | 3563 | | 日度变化 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Weak or Bearish Outlook**: PX, PTA, MEG, asphalt, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, benzene ethylene [4][12][13][24][38][42][45][86][90][68] - **Neutral Outlook**: rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, LPG [4][14][20][50][55][59][64][74] - **Specific Strategy**: For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread and stay on the sidelines for the near - month contracts [4] 2. Core Views - **PX/PTA**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. There is limited upside space, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of polyester production cuts. The supply - demand balance sheet continues to destock, which is beneficial for the near - month positive spread positions [12][13] - **MEG**: There are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses. A positive spread strategy for monthly differences is recommended [13] - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] - **LLDPE**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of polyethylene has high - production and high - inventory pressure, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **PP**: Prices have a slight decline, and trading volume is average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to operate weakly. There is a lack of continuous upward drivers in the fundamentals, and future production will remain high [45][47] - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity. The market is in a state of oversupply, and demand is weak [50][53] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][56] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market [60][62] - **Urea**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity. The futures price will have a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [64][66][67] - **Benzene Ethylene**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity. The supply of pure benzene exceeds demand, and the inventory of benzene ethylene is low [68][69] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] - **LPG**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] - **PVC**: It is expected to operate weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Fuel Oil**: It has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX/PTA/MEG - **Fundamentals**: On May 22, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC's main closing prices all decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 2.2%, 1.8%, 0.1%, 1.4%, and 1.8% respectively. The monthly differences, inter - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6] - **Market Overview**: Due to falling oil prices and a slight slowdown in downstream polyester production, the price of Asian p - xylene has declined. The expected slowdown in China's downstream polyester business has begun, but the current production reduction may not have a significant impact on prices. The PTA load has increased to 77.1%, and the overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland has decreased to 58.25% [8][9] - **Market Outlook**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. The supply of PX and PTA has increased, and the upward momentum of prices has weakened. For MEG, there are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses [12][13] 3.2 Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of the rubber futures market on May 22 decreased compared to the previous day. The prices of various rubber varieties in the spot market were relatively stable, with some small fluctuations [16] - **Industry News**: In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume will continue to decrease in May due to the unstable raw material supply in overseas production areas at the beginning of the new tapping season [18][19] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume of the synthetic rubber futures market on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The prices of various synthetic rubber varieties in the spot market decreased, while the price of butadiene increased. The profit of cis - butadiene rubber has improved [20] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, the inventory of China's high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports continued to decline. The price of cis - butadiene rubber is restricted by the overall rubber sector, and the upside space is narrowed [20][23] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] 3.4 Asphalt - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures contracts on May 22 had different changes. The spot prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta regions remained stable. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate decreased slightly [24] - **Market News**: In the week of May 16 - 22, 2025, China's asphalt weekly output decreased. As of May 22, the inventory of asphalt sample factories decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly [37] - **Market Outlook**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] 3.5 LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The price of LLDPE futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China decreased [38] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PE market has declined slightly this week. The market is under pressure due to limited downstream demand and slow de - stocking in the upstream and middle reaches. The supply pressure of polyethylene in 2025 is still high, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [38][41] 3.6 PP - **Fundamentals**: The price of PP futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China had slight adjustments [42] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PP market has been slightly adjusted, with weak trading volume. The futures market has little guidance for the spot market, and downstream demand is insufficient [43] - **Market Outlook**: The price will decline slightly, and trading volume will be average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] 3.7 Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract caustic soda futures and the spot price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong on May 23 are provided, and the basis is 128 [45] - **Market Conditions**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable with a slight increase. From the fundamental perspective, caustic soda lacks continuous upward drivers. The supply will remain high in the future, and it is in the off - season of demand [46][47] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [45][49] 3.8 Paper Pulp - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of paper pulp futures on May 22 decreased. The spot prices of various paper pulp varieties had different changes, with a slight increase in the average price of softwood pulp and a decrease in the average price of hardwood pulp [51] - **Industry News**: The price of imported paper pulp showed a "first - up - then - down" trend this week. The main reasons are the fading of policy benefits, obvious demand differentiation, and unresolved port inventory contradictions [52][53] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity [50][51] 3.9 Glass - **Fundamentals**: The price of the FG509 glass futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Shahe, Hubei, and Zhejiang had different changes [56] - **Market Conditions**: The price of domestic float glass original sheets was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market trading atmosphere was average, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [56] - **Market Outlook**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][57] 3.10 Methanol - **Fundamentals**: The price of methanol futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and other regions decreased [60] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic methanol market has declined this week. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the MTO start - up rate is relatively high [62][63] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating, with a neutral trend intensity [59][63] 3.11 Urea - **Fundamentals**: The price of urea futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices of urea factories and traders were relatively stable [65] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased. The futures price of urea is expected to fluctuate in a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [66][67] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity [64][67] 3.12 Benzene Ethylene - **Fundamentals**: The prices of benzene ethylene futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot price of benzene ethylene decreased, and the inventory was at a low level [68] - **Market Conditions**: The weakness of pure benzene has not ended, and the supply pressure continues to recover. The downstream demand for pure benzene is weak, and the short - term supply exceeds demand. The downstream production and sales of benzene ethylene were strong on Monday but declined rapidly from Tuesday to Friday [69] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity [68][69] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: The price of the SA2509 soda ash futures on May 22 increased slightly, and the trading volume was large. The spot prices in North, East, and Central China remained stable [72] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market is stable with minor fluctuations. The supply has a slight adjustment, and downstream demand is not strong [72] - **Market Outlook**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] 3.14 LPG - **Fundamentals**: The prices of LPG futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spreads between Guangzhou's domestic and imported LPG and the 07 - contract increased. The PDH start - up rate increased [74] - **Market News**: There are many PDH device overhauls in the industry. The cost support for LPG is weakening [74][81] - **Market Outlook**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] 3.15 PVC - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract PVC futures on May 23 and the spot price in East China are provided, and the basis is - 96 [86] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PVC market has declined slightly this week. The fundamentals are expected to be weak, with the release of new production capacity and the arrival of the rainy - season off - season. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [86][89] 3.16 Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spot prices of fuel oil in various regions decreased [90] - **Market Outlook**: Fuel oil has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamentals**: The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts on May 22 had different changes, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in the SCFIS and SCFI indices had different changes [92] - **Market Outlook**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31]

化工日报 | 2025-05-22 PTA装置陆续重启,关注成本支撑 市场要闻与数据 在原油上涨和主流供应商减合约消息下，周三PTA期货震荡上行，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差企稳。 市场分析 成本端，市场近期关注点在宏观和地缘上反复切换，目前暂无消息指引，油价拉锯盘整，继续关注美伊核谈和俄 乌谈判方面进展。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解近期有所反弹，但季节性表现仍弱于前两年。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。3~5月上旬韩国出口 到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复情况。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN258美元/吨(环比变动-13.25美元/吨）。近期近期宏观利好提振，同时多套px装置计划外 损失增加，进一步收紧PX近月供需预期，市场货源偏紧，加之窗口内PX买气活跃，外商挺价积极，进一步支撑价 格上行，PXN低位反弹，当前已脱离低估值水平。后续5月国内PX检修装置将陆续重启，供应预计有所增加，但PTA 新装置投产下PX延续去库。整体来看，短期市场情绪好转和计划外检修增多下PXN反弹明 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market for ethylene glycol is currently in a state of cautious sentiment, with participants being more prudent due to uncertainties in macro - market developments and negotiations. The price of ethylene glycol has shown narrow - range adjustments, and the market is affected by factors such as supply - side losses and polyester load. In the short - term, the market will maintain a slow trend, and attention should be paid to polyester production reduction news [2]. - The production and sales of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips have shown certain fluctuations. The production and sales of polyester filament have improved slightly, while the overall production and sales of polyester products are affected by factors such as raw material price increases [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On May 22, 2025, the price of crude oil was $569.63 per ton, with a price increase of 0.04% compared to the previous value [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol in the Northeast Asia region was $781 per ton on May 21, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value. The price of ethylene glycol in the East China region was $600 per ton on May 22, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - **Polyester Products**: The price index of polyester on May 21, 2025, was $890 per ton, with no change compared to the previous value; the price index of polyester staple fiber was $663 per ton, with an increase of 0.15% compared to the previous value; the price index of bottle - grade polyester chips was $605 per ton, with an increase of 0.83% compared to the previous value [1]. 3.2 Operating Rate Information - The operating rate of ethylene glycol production by the oil - based method was 54.94% on May 21, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value; the operating rate of ethylene glycol production by the coal - based method was 48.18% on May 21, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - The load rate of the polyester industry's PTA factory was 91.11% on May 21, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value; the load rate of the textile machinery industry in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 68.10% on May 21, 2025, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. 3.3 Market Transaction Information - In the ethylene glycol market, on May 21, 2025, the trading volume of ethylene glycol futures was 186,500 lots, and the closing price was $4414 per ton, with an increase of 0.23% compared to the previous day [2]. - The production and sales of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips were 111.52%, 48.3%, and 69.0% respectively on May 21, 2025, showing certain fluctuations compared to the previous period [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The market's focus has been shifting between macro and geopolitical factors, with oil prices in a range - bound consolidation. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear talks and the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [2] - The gasoline crack has rebounded recently, but its seasonal performance is still weaker than in the previous two years. The aromatics blending demand for gasoline is not promising this year, and the intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha [2] - PXN has rebounded from a low level due to macro - level positive factors and unexpected losses of multiple PX plants. In May, domestic PX maintenance plants will gradually restart, and PX will continue to draw down inventory under the commissioning of new PTA plants [2] - The PTA spot basis has weakened, and the processing fees have declined. With the high - operation of downstream polyester plants, PTA will continue to draw down inventory significantly in May. As the PTA price rebounds, the maintenance of PTA plants is postponed, and the supply will gradually return [3] - The polyester operating rate has increased, and downstream orders have improved after the positive progress of the China - US negotiations and tariff reduction. The inventory of filament has decreased significantly, and the average monthly polyester load in May may increase instead of decrease [3] - The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - chips has increased, and the market supply is gradually rising, which may put pressure on the market price. Attention should be paid to the maintenance news of bottle - chip plants due to rising costs [4] - After the continuous and rapid rise, the current valuations of PXN and PTA are no longer at low levels, and the market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the downstream negative feedback and the support from the crude oil cost side [5] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main - contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main - contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various types of warehouse receipts for PTA, PX, and PF [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It includes figures on the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of various filament products, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][60] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover the load of polyester staple fiber, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories, and the operating rates and processing fees of related yarns [71][73][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the load of polyester bottle - chips, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and various price spreads [91][93][99]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products including urea, methanol, polyolefins, styrene, polyester, chlor-alkali, and glass soda ash, and provides investment ratings and trend judgments for each product [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol has been continuously falling. Multiple domestic plants have resumed production, increasing supply pressure and causing enterprises to destock. Last week, the import volume decreased, and the MTO plant operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased slightly, leading to destocking at ports. This week, the import volume is expected to increase significantly, domestic production is high, and some olefin plants remain shut down. In May, it is the traditional off - season for methanol, and both inland and port areas are expected to accumulate inventory, with a weak fundamental situation [2] Urea - The urea futures market is mainly in a volatile adjustment. As export news is digested, it returns to the fundamental trading logic. Last week, production enterprises significantly destocked, while ports accumulated inventory. New plants in Xinjiang have been put into operation, and supply remains sufficient. It is currently the domestic demand peak season with alternating industrial and agricultural demand. With the implementation of stable export measures, the bullish sentiment in the market is fading, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [3] Polyolefins - The main contracts of polyolefin futures continue to decline in a volatile manner. For polyethylene, PE plants are entering the maintenance period, and domestic supply is expected to decrease slightly. There is an expectation of improved foreign trade orders, but market sentiment is cautious. Some factories' finished - product inventories have decreased, but downstream demand is mainly for rigid orders, providing limited support for prices. For polypropylene, some export - oriented enterprises are restocking due to expected order increases, but the overall downstream recovery is limited, and it is difficult to drive prices up. As the temperature rises, order - taking is expected to worsen, and the operating rate of some factories may decline further [4] Styrene - The main contract of styrene futures closed down. There is an expected increase in domestic production and imports of pure benzene, and its price may be weak in the short - term, providing insufficient cost support for styrene. In terms of supply and demand, port inventory is low, and there is a need for restocking. Styrene prices vary by region, with improved transactions in the Shandong market after price corrections, while spot transactions are weak in other markets [5] Polyester - Oil prices fluctuated downwards. The restart of Zhongtai PTA and the expected polyester production cut dragged down PX and PTA, with significant declines in the monthly and basis spreads. The terminal market is recovering, and polyester filament enterprises' inventory pressure has eased, with a slight improvement in cash flow. In the short - term, if production cuts increase, upstream enterprises may give more concessions to downstream. In the medium - term, if orders improve, the industry chain profit may reach a new balance and enter a volatile stage. Also, attention should be paid to the gasoline demand peak season and changes in the aromatic hydrocarbon market. The profit of the ethylene glycol industry has improved, especially for the syngas method. There are many planned plant overhauls in the short - term, with a positive supply outlook. In the far - month, there will be supply pressure from the resumption of US imports and restart of overhauled plants. The monthly spread is strong, but if polyester production cuts due to losses are realized, it may drag down the market. Driven by falling costs, the price of short fiber fluctuated weakly. Under high - operating - rate pressure, the processing margin is low. As raw material prices fall, short fiber passively restores profits. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of processing margin restoration driven by changes in short - fiber supply. Bottle chip is in the peak demand season, with increasing production and stable inventory, but the industry processing margin is still low. If production cuts are implemented, consider entering the market at low prices to capture processing margin restoration [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC continues to face pressure from weak demand and high supply, and its futures price remains weak. Some plants that were under maintenance are expected to resume operation this week, and supply is expected to increase slightly. Domestic demand is flat, and with the easing of tariffs, future product exports may improve. Due to weak domestic demand, the futures price may oscillate at a low level. After the spot price of caustic soda was raised, the delivery volume did not increase significantly. This week, chlor - alkali plants in East China are under maintenance, boosting the regional liquid caustic soda price. The profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has recovered. Although downstream procurement prices have increased, the operating rates of alumina and viscose staple fiber have declined. Currently, the alumina price is rising, and it remains to be seen whether it can drive up the alumina operating rate. Downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the industry has restocked, so the futures price is expected to have limited upward momentum [7] Glass Soda Ash - Glass futures fluctuated narrowly. The sales in Shahe are okay, while the performance in other regions is average. Currently, inventory is concentrated in the upstream and mid - stream, with high pressure. With the upcoming rainy season, the industry faces shipment pressure. Upstream costs have decreased, and coal production lines still have profits, with production capacity operating at a narrow range. Processing orders have improved month - on - month but are still weak year - on - year, and downstream payment collection is poor. Currently, inventory pressure is high, and the driving force is weak. However, due to the low valuation and macro - factors, short - selling should be done with caution, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with costs. Soda ash is in a weak state. Qinghai soda plants plan to conduct overhauls, while Yunxing has resumed operation, and Lianyungang has successfully produced products. Supply is fluctuating. The spot price is stable, and downstream purchasing sentiment is average. The rigid demand for heavy soda ash is under pressure, and there is a trend of inventory accumulation in the photovoltaic industry, leading to price declines. The subsequent ignition speed will slow down. In the short - term, due to overhauls, supply pressure has eased, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side. In the long - term, under the supply - pressure pattern, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after rebounds [8]

Group 1 - The current bullish sentiment in the market is strong, particularly in the chemical futures sector, which continues to lead the gains [1] - Styrene prices are supported by tight spot liquidity due to maintenance, although they are still constrained by the low prices of pure benzene [1] - Short-term PTA spot prices are fluctuating strongly in line with the robust cost side [1]

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-05-07 纯苯港口库存仍未兑现上升 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存12.00万吨（+0.00万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费129美元/吨（-3美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费107美元/吨（-3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差97.5美元/吨（+15.0美元/吨），仍处于关闭状态。华东纯苯现货-M2价 差-35元/吨（+60元/吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差186元/吨（-26元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润30元/吨（+87元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存68500吨（-16700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存53500吨（-4700吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯 开工率70.5%（+2.6%）。 上游原油价格大幅波动，中美关税政策变化，对美国乙烷的关税动态 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润516元/吨（-11元/吨），PS生产利润-9元/吨（+14元/吨），ABS生产利润957元/吨（-168 元/吨）。EPS开工率48.73%（-8.31%），PS开工率58.70%（+0.00%）， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Short - term sideways market, month - to - month positive spread arbitrage. Long PX and short SC, long PX and short EB. The geopolitical conflict drives the rebound of crude oil, supporting PX valuation. The recovery of polyester terminal demand boosts the valuation of the aromatic polyester chain [10]. - PTA: Month - to - month positive spread arbitrage, long PTA and short SC. PTA supply decreases while demand increases, maintaining a de - stocking pattern. It is recommended to maintain the 6 - 9 positive spread arbitrage. Due to high processing fees, some device overhauls are postponed, so a short - on - rallies strategy is advisable [10]. - MEG: Unilateral trend is weak, long PTA and short MEG. Do not chase high on month spreads. Ethylene glycol supply will continue to increase, with difficulties in reducing port inventories [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Change**: On May 6, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had daily changes of - 1.3%, - 1.6%, - 0.6%, - 0.4%, and - 1.9% respectively compared to the previous day [2]. - **Month Spread**: On May 6, 2025, PX (9 - 1), PTA(6 - 9), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB09 had daily changes of - 6, - 10, - 1, 12, and 24 respectively [2]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: On May 6, 2025, PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA09 - PF09, PF07 processing fees, and PTA09 - LU09 had daily changes of - 19, - 47, 8, 9, and - 44 respectively [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: On May 6, 2025, PX basis, PTA basis, MEG basis, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spread had daily changes of 170, - 8, 4, 46, and 2 respectively [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On May 6, 2025, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts had daily changes of no change, - 3, - 80, 247, and no change respectively [2]. 2. Market Overview - **Crude Oil**: Israel plans to expand military operations in Gaza, and the geopolitical situation remains unstable. Iran is committed to diplomatic dialogue with the US, but the fourth - round nuclear negotiation is postponed [4]. - **PX**: On May 6, PX price rose, with two June Asian spot transactions at 745 and 746 respectively. A 210,000 - ton PX device in Japan stopped unexpectedly, and a 190,000 - ton device is under maintenance. A 2.5 - million - ton PX device in East China restarted. South Korea exported about 439,000 tons of PX in April, with 390,000 tons to China and 49,000 tons to Taiwan, China [4]. - **PTA**: A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China stopped for planned maintenance and is expected to restart by the end of the month. A northwest PTA supplier's April settlement price was 4824.77 yuan/ton, and the May advance payment price is 4800 yuan/ton [8]. - **MEG**: From May 6 - 11, the planned arrivals at major ports are about 59,000 tons. A 400,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device in Guangdong stopped for maintenance on the 6th, expected to last about 20 days. On the 6th, the MEG inventory at East China's major ports was about 790,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons [8][9]. - **Polyester**: On May 6, the sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 77%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of less than 40% in the afternoon [9][10]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 0 [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides views and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, log, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and container shipping index (European line). The overall market shows a mixed trend, with some commodities expected to be weak, some to be volatile, and some to have potential investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost collapse may lead to a post-holiday price decline. Suggest a long PX and short SC strategy. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and the de-stocking rate may slow down [8]. - **PTA**: Cost support is weak. Suggest a long PTA and short SC strategy. Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, and the de-stocking pattern continues. Consider a 6 - 9 positive spread operation [9]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak. Suggest a long PTA and short MEG strategy. Supply will continue to increase, and port inventory de-stocking is difficult [9]. Rubber - Expected to trade in a range. The market shows neutral trend strength, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and price differentials [10][11]. Synthetic Rubber - Expected to face downward pressure and trade in a range. Although the valuation provides some support, the driving force is downward due to the decline in crude oil prices during the holiday [14][16]. Asphalt - Expected to weaken following oil prices, with the crack spread likely to continue to recover. Current production capacity utilization has decreased, and inventory shows a mixed trend [17][29]. LLDPE - The trend is weak. Trade war impacts and high supply with weak demand are the main factors. New capacity is expected to be put into operation, and demand from downstream industries is limited [30][31]. PP - Prices have slightly declined, and trading volume has decreased. The market is weakly sorted, and downstream demand is flat after pre-holiday stocking [34][35]. Caustic Soda - Expected to trade in a range in the short term but face pressure later. Demand is in the off-season, and supply reduction is needed to balance the market [37][38]. Pulp - Expected to trade in a wide range. Port inventory is at a relatively high level, and downstream demand has not improved significantly [42][44]. Log - Expected to trade weakly in a range. The number of incoming ships and the volume of incoming goods have decreased [47][51]. Methanol - Expected to operate weakly. The market is in a pattern of high domestic production, high imports, high profits, and gradually increasing inventory [52][55]. Urea - Expected to trade in a range with increased support at the lower end. Production enterprise inventory may decline, and the futures market is expected to be volatile [57][58]. Styrene - Expected to trade weakly. The pure benzene market is in a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, and downstream negative feedback is expected to be transmitted [60][61]. Soda Ash - The spot market shows little change. The market is expected to be stable to slightly strong in the short term, with stable production and weak downstream demand [63][65]. LPG - The support from crude oil is weakening. Pay attention to the inter-month positive spread strategy. The market shows neutral trend strength, with changes in production capacity utilization [67][74]. PVC - Expected to trade weakly. High production and high inventory structure are difficult to alleviate in the short term, and the market is under pressure from supply and demand [76][77]. Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The external spot price has dropped significantly, and the short-term trend is expected to weaken further. - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has slightly corrected following crude oil, and the spread between high and low sulfur in the external market has widened [80]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Expected to trade at a low level in a range. Hold a light short position in the 10 - 12 reverse spread [82].