Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Soda ash - Report cycle: Daily report - Date of composition: July 23, 2025 [1] 2. Futures Market 2.1 Contract Quotes - On July 23, 2025, the soda ash futures faced pressure and pulled back. The opening price of Soda Ash 2509 (SA509) was 1376 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1394 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1300 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1338 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 3.307 billion hands, an increase of 197 million hands from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.037 billion hands, a decrease of 37.3 million hands from the previous day [2] 2.2 Variety Prices - The report provides the opening and highest prices of Soda Ash 2508, Soda Ash 2509, and Soda Ash 2601 contracts on July 23, 2025 [5] 3. Spot Market - The report presents the domestic soda ash price summary table on July 23, 2025, showing price changes compared to July 22, 2025 [6] 4. Influencing Factors 4.1 Policy - related - Policy expectations such as the steady - growth plan for the building materials industry and the "city - specific policies" in the real estate sector, combined with low inventory, have driven market sentiment up [7] 4.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The weekly output was 568,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%. However, summer maintenance led to supply contraction, and the release progress of new capacity from Yuanxing was slower than expected. - Demand side: The daily melting volume of float glass was 168,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.76%, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash procurement increased [8] 4.3 Technical Analysis - The price of the Soda Ash 2509 (SA509) contract deviated from the 5 - day moving average today, and there may be a need for technical repair. However, the trend indicator still maintained a bullish signal, indicating that the short - term trend is still upward, but the repair demand may cause the price to pull back to some extent [9] 5. Market Outlook - The current soda ash futures price may be supported by policies and maintenance factors and remain in a relatively strong state. In the long run, Yuanxing's second - phase 2.8 million - ton capacity is expected to be put into production in August, which will increase market supply, and the soda ash futures price may face valuation pressure. In addition, if the inventory inflection point appears, that is, the inventory starts to rise, it may also lead to a price pullback. Traders need to beware of the short - selling risk brought about by the accelerated release of Yuanxing's capacity or the increase in inventory [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Styrene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PX: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the disk [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the disk [1] - Glass: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The market is gradually returning to rationality after being stimulated by macro news, and each chemical product is affected by factors such as supply and demand, seasonality, and policies, showing different trends [2][3][4] - Different chemical products have different investment opportunities and trends, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and policy trends [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly lower. The market lacks fundamental support for upward movement, and the spot market supply - demand support is weak [2] - Polyolefin futures main contracts closed lower. Polyethylene demand is weak, and polypropylene price has a small upward shift, but the price increase space is limited due to weak demand [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene followed the external market sentiment and oscillated lower. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene futures main contract faced technical pressure and oscillated lower. The macro - positive support weakened, and the spot trading was poor [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rose and then fell. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and the demand for upstream PX was dragged down. The processing margin of PTA has room to repair [4] - Ethylene glycol oscillated lower. The downstream demand was weak, and the supply increased. The supply advantage will weaken [4] - Short fiber followed the raw materials to rise and then fall. The demand is expected to pick up in the medium - term. Bottle chip inventory is stable after production reduction, but the profit repair drive is limited [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures main contract oscillated and corrected. The port unexpectedly destocked, and the domestic main - producing area enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance [5] - Urea futures opened high and went low. The domestic downstream demand is weak, but the export is advancing, and the short - term is expected to oscillate strongly [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fell from a high. The spot trading volume was mediocre, the demand was in the off - season, and the supply increased. The short - term price may follow the overall sentiment [6] - Caustic soda fell from a high. The spot performance was average, the high - price goods sales slowed down, and the impact of macro factors is large in the short - term [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fell. The inventory decreased, the spot price rose, and the supply was high. The short - term is more affected by macro - sentiment [7] - Glass fell from a high. The industry continued to destock, the profit slightly recovered, and the short - term is expected to follow the macro - sentiment [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is affected by policies to eliminate backward production capacity. The market sentiment is positive, and commodity prices are rising, driving up the prices of propylene and polyolefins [3]. - Propylene is expected to shift from an oversupply to a tight - balance situation after capacity reduction, but supply pressure will increase as refinery operations recover, while downstream demand is also gradually recovering [3]. - For polyolefins, policies have a certain boosting effect on the market. Although production maintenance eases some supply - demand pressure, upstream and mid - stream inventories are rising. Cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand remains sluggish, with an expected increase in supply and inventory in the future [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - It includes the trend of the propylene futures main contract, the basis between East China and the main contract, the basis between North China and the main contract, and the basis between Northwest China and the main contract, as well as the market prices in East China and Shandong [10][11]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers propylene processing fees, capacity utilization rates, production margins from different production methods (PDH, MTO, naphtha cracking), and the capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins and the operating rate of crude oil refineries [15][19][26]. 3. Propylene Import and Export Profits - Involves price differences between South Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia and China, and propylene import profits [31][35]. 4. Propylene Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - Includes the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][40][43]. 5. Propylene Inventory - Consists of propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [61]. 6. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Comprises the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, and the basis between East China LL and the main contract, and between East China PP and the main contract [65][69]. 7. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the production profits of LL (crude - oil - based) and PP (crude - oil - based and PDH - based), PE and PP operating rates, weekly production, and maintenance losses [74][80][82]. 8. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Differences - Includes price differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and price differences between PP low - melt copolymer, PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China [87][94][95]. 9. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - Involves LL and PP import and export profits, and price differences between different regions and China [101][113]. 10. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Profits - Includes the operating rates and production profits of PE downstream (agricultural film, packaging film, winding film) and PP downstream (plastic weaving, BOPP film, injection molding) [124][125][131]. 11. Polyolefin Inventory - Consists of inventory in oil - based and coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports for both PE and PP [133][138][146]. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on propylene in the short term [4]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread for PL01 - 05 [4]. - Inter - commodity: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of propylene futures and options on July 22 marks a significant development in China's chemical industry, providing essential risk management tools and enhancing pricing mechanisms for the propylene market [1][2][3]. Industry Impact - Propylene is a crucial basic chemical raw material, and its market stability is vital for the high-quality development of the chemical industry and the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse in China [2]. - The introduction of propylene futures and options is expected to improve risk management, enhance pricing efficiency, and strengthen the resilience of the industry chain [3][4]. - The new derivatives will fill the gap in the C3 industry chain, offering direct risk management tools for upstream and downstream enterprises [3]. Market Performance - On the first day of trading, seven contracts were listed, with a total transaction volume of 47,000 lots and a turnover of 6.24 billion yuan, indicating a positive market response [1][4]. - All seven contracts closed in the green, reflecting strong market participation and positive price expectations [4][5]. Participant Engagement - Active participation from entities such as MRC Chemical Group and Zhongji Petrochemical, which executed the first trades, demonstrates the optimism among industry players regarding the new derivatives [5]. - Futures companies are expected to expand their services to the chemical industry, enhancing their capabilities in risk management and inventory optimization through the new products [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified [1] - Methanol: Not specified [1] - Pure Benzene: Not specified [1] - Styrene: Not specified [1] - Ethylene: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - Plastics: Not specified [1] - PVC: Not specified [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - PX: Not specified [1] - PTA: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Slightly positive) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ (Slightly positive) [1] - Glass: Not specified [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (Positive trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: Not specified [1] - Propylene: Not specified [1] Core Views - The olefin and polyolefin futures markets showed different trends. Olefin futures had a strong start, but the propylene fundamentals were weak. Polyolefin futures rose, but the fundamentals remained soft [2]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets had different performances. Pure benzene had short - term support and different monthly spread operation suggestions. Benzene - styrene had a price increase, but the supply - demand contradiction was difficult to improve [3]. - In the polyester market, PX and PTA were stable but faced supply - demand issues. Ethylene glycol was short - term strong but supply might increase. Short fiber had policy support and mid - term potential, while bottle chips had limited profit - repair drivers [5]. - The methanol market rose due to cost - side news, and its sustainability was uncertain. The urea market was expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [6]. - The PVC market was strong due to news, and the caustic soda market was also strong under macro influence [7]. - The soda ash and glass markets were affected by macro and upstream news, and their long - term trends depended on capacity reduction implementation [8]. Section Summaries Olefin - Polyolefin - Olefin futures opened higher and closed up on the first day, expected to be strong in the short term. However, the propylene supply - demand was imbalanced, and it was in the off - season [2]. - Polyolefin futures rose, but the fundamentals were weak. Polyethylene demand was poor, and polypropylene downstream demand was also weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene spot prices slightly declined, but the price trend was upward. It had short - term support from inventory and seasonal expectations. Different monthly spread operations were suggested for different periods [3]. - Benzene - styrene futures rose. Supply and demand both increased slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate, with the supply - demand contradiction difficult to improve [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA were stable, with PTA continuing to accumulate inventory and having limited supply - demand drivers. Ethylene glycol was short - term strong but might face supply increases. Short fiber had policy support and mid - term potential, while bottle chips had limited profit - repair drivers [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose due to cost - side news, and its upward trend's sustainability was uncertain. The inventory of production enterprises changed little, and the coastal area had sufficient supply [6]. - Urea futures were expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with supply sufficient, demand structure changing, and policy support [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was strong due to news, and the industry had some old - age capacity. The manufacturer's inventory decreased slightly, and the social inventory increased [7]. - Caustic soda was strong under macro influence, with profit improvement and attention to old - age capacity reduction [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash had a daily limit up, with inventory decreasing and supply under high pressure. The photovoltaic industry continued to cut production [8]. - Glass had a daily limit up, with prices rising. Its long - term trend depended on capacity reduction implementation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of propylene futures on July 22, 2025, on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, highlighting the oversupply in the global and domestic propylene market and the expected trading strategies for the first day of trading [3][4]. Group 1: Trading Rules and Initial Conditions - The first batch of contracts for propylene futures will include PL2601 to PL2607, with a listing benchmark price of 6350 CNY/ton. Each contract corresponds to 20 tons, with a minimum price fluctuation unit of 1 CNY/ton. The initial margin requirement is set at 8%, and the price limit for the first trading day is ±14% [4][5]. - It is noted that new futures contracts may face liquidity issues on the first trading day, leading to potential price discrepancies. Therefore, it is recommended to use limit orders to avoid significant deviations from expected prices [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The global propylene market is experiencing an oversupply, with an expected capacity of 169 million tons by 2025, of which China will account for 35%. China's total propylene capacity is projected to exceed 60 million tons per year by 2025 [6]. - Domestic propylene production methods include steam cracking, propane dehydrogenation (PDH), catalytic cracking, and methanol-to-olefins, with PDH being the primary contributor to new capacity. However, the average operating rate in this sector is only 74% [6]. - On the demand side, domestic apparent consumption is expected to grow to 60 million tons, but the overall supply-demand balance remains loose. The polypropylene (PP) sector faces overcapacity, with new capacities expected to exceed 50 million tons by 2025, which may exert long-term pressure on propylene prices [7]. Group 3: Trading Strategies for the First Day - For the first day of trading, a single-sided strategy is recommended, focusing on the recent increase in profits from external procurement of propylene for PP production, which supports propylene prices. Attention should be paid to the actions of companies that have previously halted PP production [9]. - A cross-commodity arbitrage strategy is suggested, where the price difference between propylene and PP has compressed to over 800 CNY/ton, allowing for a strategy of buying propylene and selling PP to lock in processing profits [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polyolefins: Not rated - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polyester (PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip): PX - ☆☆☆, PTA - ☆☆☆, Ethylene Glycol - ★☆☆, Short Fiber - ☆☆☆, Bottle Chip - ☆☆☆ [1] - Chlor - Alkali (PVC, Caustic Soda): ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different products having various supply - demand relationships and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as inventory changes, seasonal demand, and cost fluctuations [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates in a narrow range. Import arrivals increase significantly, and ports accumulate inventory rapidly. Domestic producers in major production areas plan autumn maintenance, but some may postpone due to good profits. Downstream demand is for immediate needs, and production enterprise inventory changes little. The expected reduction in inland supply supports the market, but demand enters the off - season [2] Urea - The urea futures price rises first and then oscillates and回调 during the day. Daily production decreases slightly, and overall supply remains sufficient. Agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer producers is still low. Producer inventory transfers to downstream and ports, with producers' inventory decreasing significantly and port inventory increasing rapidly. The domestic urea market is expected to have a loose supply - demand situation in the short term, and with the expected release of new export quotas, the market is likely to oscillate strongly within a range [3] Polyolefins - The main contracts of polyolefin futures continue to fluctuate in a narrow range, with a weakening trend. The cost of oil prices fluctuates widely without clear guidance. For polyethylene, the restart of some maintenance devices increases supply expectations, and short - term demand from North China's agricultural film has limited driving effect. For polypropylene, a high number of maintenance devices provide support, but weak downstream demand suppresses the market [4] Pure Benzene - Boosted by the overnight oil price rebound, the price of pure benzene rises in the morning but then falls. Domestic production increases slightly, and port supplies are abundant. There is a seasonal improvement in supply - demand expected in the second half of the third quarter, but pressure returns in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations, with a positive spread strategy in the medium - short term and a negative spread in the fourth quarter. Considering the long - term bearish view on oil prices, shorting pure benzene at high prices is advisable [6] Styrene - The main contract of styrene futures has a narrow - range consolidation. The main port's inventory accumulates significantly, with refrigerated tank capacity in short supply. More selling and less buying in the spot market lead to a decline in spot prices and a weakening basis, which drags down the futures market [7] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rise first, then fall, and rebound in the afternoon. PX supply - demand improves, but low downstream PTA processing margins and weakening demand from long - filament inventory and cash - flow problems drag it down. PTA has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation, and the spot processing margin is at a low level with a repair drive. For ethylene glycol, domestic production decreases, and imports are low, with port inventory reduction and unstable overseas device operation boosting the market. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices follow the raw materials, with short - fiber having a slight inventory reduction and repair of spot processing margins, while bottle - chip has a decline in industry operation rate and a slight increase in inventory [8] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuates in a narrow range. Calcium carbide producers lower prices, and producer inventory decreases slightly while social inventory increases. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali improves, and new device production increases supply. Domestic demand is weak, and export deliveries decrease. Caustic soda futures price is weak. Profit improvement leads to increased device operation, but high - price sales are difficult. Alumina demand provides some support, but non - aluminum downstream demand is average [9] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices decline during the day. Mid - and downstream restocking sentiment improves, industry profit rises slightly, and production capacity increases slightly. Processing orders are weak. Soda ash prices oscillate downward. Industry inventory accumulates, production increases, and the photovoltaic industry plans to cut production. The supply - demand situation of glass is better than that of soda ash, and the price spread is expected to widen [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: Not specified [1] - Pure Benzene: Not specified [1] - PX: Not specified [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Bullish bias but limited trading opportunity [1] - Bottle Chips: Not specified [1] - Urea: Not specified [1] - Caustic Soda: Not specified [1] - Soda Ash: Not specified [1] - Plastic: Not specified [1] - Styrene: Not specified [1] - PTA: Not specified [1] - Short Fibre: Not specified [1] - Methanol: Not specified [1] - PVC: Not specified [1] - Glass: Not specified [1] Core Views - The methanol market is supported by inland supply, but demand is entering the off - season [2]. - The short - term supply - demand of the domestic urea market is expected to be loose, and the market is likely to fluctuate strongly within the range [3]. - The polyolefin market has supply recovery and weak demand issues [4]. - The pure benzene market has a weak cost support and supply pressure, with seasonal improvement expected in Q3 and pressure in Q4 [5]. - The styrene market has sufficient supply and poor spot trading [6]. - The polyester market has different situations for PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fibre and bottle chips, with various supply - demand and profit conditions [7]. - The PVC market has increased supply and weak demand, while the caustic soda market has profit improvement but high - price sales issues [8]. - The glass market has better supply - demand than soda ash, and the glass - soda ash spread is expected to continue to strengthen [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates narrowly. Import arrivals have increased significantly, and ports are rapidly accumulating inventory. Some enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance due to good profits. Downstream maintains rigid demand procurement, and production enterprise inventory has little change [2]. Urea - The urea futures fluctuate strongly. Daily production decreases slightly, supply remains sufficient, and agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. Production enterprise inventory is transferred to downstream and ports, with enterprises de - stocking and ports stocking up quickly. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly within the range [3]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures fluctuate narrowly and are weak. PE supply will recover as some devices restart, and demand from North China's agricultural film has limited impact. PP has many maintenance devices providing support, but off - season demand is weak [4]. Pure Benzene - The price of benzene is weak. Cost support is weakening, domestic production is increasing slightly, and port supplies are abundant. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the second half of Q3, but pressure in Q4. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [5]. Styrene - The main contract of styrene futures opens low and fluctuates narrowly. The cost - end crude oil market has a multi - empty game. Styrene has high operating loads and increasing port inventory, and downstream procurement is on - demand [6]. Polyester - PX and PTA fluctuate. PX supply - demand improves, but weak PTA demand drags it down. PTA has a drive to repair the processing spread. Ethylene glycol prices rise due to port de - stocking and unstable overseas devices. Short fibre has a slight de - stocking and profit repair. Bottle chips enterprises cut production, but inventory increases slightly [7]. Chlor - alkali - PVC fluctuates narrowly. Manufacturers de - stock slightly, but social inventory increases. New devices are put into operation, and downstream orders are insufficient. Caustic soda fluctuates strongly, with profit improvement driving device restart, but high - price sales are poor [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass runs strongly, with inventory decreasing and downstream restocking. It is expected to fluctuate with the macro - mood. Soda ash runs strongly, but the spot market is weak, with high supply and inventory. The glass - soda ash spread is expected to strengthen [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefins: Not explicitly rated - Pure Benzene: Not explicitly rated - Styrene: Not explicitly rated - Polyester (PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip): Not explicitly rated - Chlor - alkali (PVC, Liquid Caustic Soda): PVC ☆☆☆, Liquid Caustic Soda not explicitly rated [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: Not explicitly rated Report's Core View - The overall performance of the chemical futures market is complex, with different products showing various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and macro - environment [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - The main contract has narrow - range fluctuations. Import arrivals increase, coastal MTO device operation declines slightly, and ports are accumulating inventory. The inland - to - coastal arbitrage window closes. Short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [2] Urea - The futures price drops. Supply remains abundant, agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and compound fertilizer production enterprise operation declines. Upstream inventory transfers to downstream and ports, and there are rumors of new export quota expectations [3] Polyolefins - Futures prices decline. For polyethylene, device maintenance decreases, and downstream demand is weak. For polypropylene, device maintenance intensity weakens, and supply is expected to increase slightly. The overall supply - demand is weak [4] Pure Benzene - Crude oil price decline weakens cost support. Spot prices fall slightly, and ports continue to accumulate inventory. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late period, but pressure in the fourth quarter. Suggest differential trading [5] Styrene - The futures price drops. The cost - end crude oil market has a complex situation, and supply is sufficient while demand is weak [6] Polyester - PX and PTA prices decline due to oil price drops. PX supply - demand improves, but PTA demand weakens. PTA has a repair drive. Ethylene glycol is expected to be bullish in the short - term. Short fiber is bullish, and bottle chip orders are weak [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC spot prices weaken, with new device production and inventory accumulation. Liquid caustic soda prices rise, with cost support and inventory decline [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices drop due to low market expectations. Cost increases, but processing orders are weak. Soda ash is affected by macro - environment and supply pressure [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyolefins: Not explicitly rated in the given content - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Polyester: Not explicitly rated in the given content - Chlor - alkali: PVC ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach; Caustic Soda ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term multi/empty trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: Not explicitly rated in the given content Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex trends with different products having their own supply - demand situations. Some products are affected by factors such as supply changes, demand seasons, policy news, and cost fluctuations, and their prices are expected to have different trends including range - bound oscillations, maintaining strength, or being under pressure [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is in a weak and volatile state. Import arrivals have increased, MTO device operation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has slightly decreased, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. Some olefin malfunctions in the northwest have led to inventory build - up of supporting methanol. Although there are many planned maintenance of methanol devices in the future, the low acceptance of high - priced raw materials by downstream industries during the off - season may keep the market oscillating within a range [2] Urea - The urea market is supported by the spread of export quota news. Supply remains abundant, agricultural demand is expected to weaken, and the operation of compound fertilizer producers has declined. Inventory has transferred from upstream to downstream and ports, with rapid port inventory build - up. The latest Indian tender price has boosted market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited. As agricultural demand enters the off - season, new policy guidance is awaited [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures have shown narrow - range fluctuations. The positive support from polyethylene device maintenance has faded, increasing supply pressure. The market is in the traditional off - season, with pessimistic sentiment and low trading volume. Although there is cost support, the fundamentals are weak. For polypropylene, the increase in the number of maintenance devices in upstream petrochemical enterprises has offset some of the supply - side pressure from new capacity, but the weak demand situation remains [4] Pure Benzene - After overnight oil prices fell, the center of pure benzene has moved down. The slowdown in port inventory build - up and improved downstream purchasing atmosphere are short - term positives. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, but pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to operate according to seasonal supply - demand trends, conduct monthly spread band operations, and consider short - selling pure benzene at high prices based on the long - term bearish view of oil prices [5] Styrene - Styrene futures have shown narrow - range fluctuations. There is some support from the macro - level and cost, but its own supply - demand is weak. Although domestic supply has slightly decreased, there is no increase in downstream demand, and port inventories have continued to accumulate, with the spot basis weakening [6] Polyester - After overnight oil prices fell, the centers of PX and PTA have declined, and their monthly spreads have rebounded from low levels. PX supply - demand has improved with the decline in PK operation and the increase in PTA operation. Polyester operation has slightly decreased, and the PTA supply - demand pattern has changed from tight to loose, with processing margins, spreads, and monthly spreads under pressure. The PTA spot processing margin has dropped significantly and has the driving force to repair upwards. For ethylene glycol, affected by the decline in oil prices, its price has oscillated downwards. Although there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, port inventory reduction and the improvement of the overall chemical atmosphere have provided some support. There is an expectation of both supply and demand increase in the second half of the third quarter. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices have followed the decline of raw materials. Short - fiber downstream operation has continued to decline, and inventory has slightly increased. Bottle - chip enterprises have cut production, and the processing margin has repaired, but caution is needed due to the declining demand [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell at the end of the session. Downstream orders were insufficient, and inventory in East and South China continued to accumulate. With new capacity coming online, production reached a new high. Domestic demand was weak, and export delivery decreased. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on macro - sentiment and cost drivers, and in the long term, it is difficult for prices to rise significantly due to poor demand and high production. Caustic soda has shown narrow - range fluctuations. Enterprise operation has decreased, and inventory has declined month - on - month. Although alumina capacity has slightly increased, the non - aluminum downstream demand is average. With the subsidy price of liquid chlorine remaining, profit has narrowed. In the short term, cost support has strengthened, and the spot price is strong, with the futures price showing a slightly upward - oscillating trend. In the long term, supply pressure remains, and it is difficult for prices to rise significantly [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass has continued a strong trend, with price increases in Shahe and planned price hikes in other regions. This week, the purchasing sentiment of middle and downstream players was good, and inventory in important regions has decreased. With cost rising and spot prices increasing, industry profit has slightly recovered, and capacity has slightly increased. However, processing orders are weak, and the willingness to stock up on raw sheets is low. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment. In the long term, if there are substantial real - estate policies, prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply contraction is needed for significant price increases. Soda ash has declined from high levels. With high - pressure supply and continuous inventory build - up, Tianjin Alkali and Chongqing Xiangyu face production volume challenges. Photovoltaic production has continued to cut, and the industry is suffering large losses. Although coal prices have risen in the short term, narrowing profit margins, leading enterprises have cost advantages. The supply will remain high - pressure, and it is expected to be a pattern of short - selling at high prices [9]