Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of iron ore is sufficient, but the structural shortage is expected to continue until the second quarter, and the increase in freight rates due to rising fuel prices will become apparent. Negotiations and the US-Iran war are currently event-driven factors with poor tradability. If these two factors persist, steel mill profits will be under pressure, and the pressure for negative feedback on production cuts will accumulate when downstream demand is weak [3][66]. - The price range for the second quarter is expected to be between 90 and 115 for the Platts 62 index and between 700 and 900 for the iron ore index [4][67]. - Industry risk management advice is to focus on short - selling opportunities [5][68] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review - In the first quarter of 2026, the iron ore price first declined and then rose, showing a V - shaped trend. From mid - November 2025 to mid - January 2026, the price increased by nearly 100 RMB due to macro - economic improvement, the end of steel mill production cuts, and a decline in coking coal prices. From mid - January to the end of February 2026, the price fell due to weakening fundamentals and market sentiment. From March to the present, the price has risen significantly because of tightened port spot liquidity, the US - Iran war, and weather disturbances [5][6][7] 2. Supply - In the first quarter of 2026, the supply of iron ore was initially loose and then tightened. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of shipments is around 8%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of mainstream ore shipments is over 5%, and non - mainstream ore shipments have maintained a strong growth rate of 13%. The annual iron ore shipments in 2026 are expected to be relatively sufficient, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate is expected to stabilize around 4% [10] 3. Freight - Fuel oil costs account for about one - third and one - fourth of the freight rates for the C3 (Brazil - China) and C5 (Western Australia - China) routes respectively. Currently, the increase in fuel oil costs has not yet been reflected in freight rates due to a "weak demand + capacity mismatch" situation. In the short term, freight rates will remain volatile and weak, but there is an implicit asymmetric upward risk in the medium term. The recent decrease in the speed of Capesize ships has a certain supporting effect on freight rates, and if demand recovers, it may amplify the upward elasticity of C3 freight rates [31][32] 4. Demand 4.1 Iron Water Production - In the first quarter of 2026, the average daily iron water production was 2.2821 million tons, basically unchanged year - on - year. Steel mill profits have declined significantly, and although iron water production is expected to increase seasonally, downstream demand is uncertain, and steel mill profits are expected to continue to shrink [50] 4.2 Steel Fundamentals - Currently, the apparent demand for the top five steel products is good, and inventory has started to decline. Hot - rolled coils have entered the de - stocking stage, with production slightly increasing and apparent demand recovering. Rebar production and sales have increased seasonally, but as raw material costs rise rapidly, steel mill profits have weakened, and the risk of negative feedback is accumulating [56] 4.3 Steel Exports - Overall, steel exports are under pressure but have support. In January - February 2026, China's steel exports totaled 15.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The decline is due to factors such as a high base last year and new export regulations. In the future, steel exports face challenges such as trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts, but China's steel still has cost and industrial chain advantages, and the export structure is expected to optimize [59] 5. Inventory - In the first quarter of 2026, the inventory of 47 ports increased from 167 million tons to 178 million tons, showing an over - seasonal inventory build - up, but the price rose against the trend, mainly due to the structural shortage of medium - grade ore. As the scope of sanctions expands, the shortage problem is expected to remain unsolved for the time being [63] 6. Summary and Market Outlook - The structural shortage of iron ore is expected to continue until the second quarter, and the impact of rising fuel prices on freight rates will become apparent. Negotiations and the US - Iran war are event - driven factors. If they continue, steel mill profits will be under pressure, and the pressure for negative feedback on production cuts will accumulate [66] - The price range for the second quarter is expected to be between 90 and 115 for the Platts 62 index and between 700 and 900 for the iron ore index [4][67] - Industry risk management advice is to focus on short - selling opportunities [5][68]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends in industrial production, particularly focusing on the stability of blast furnace operations and the recovery of steel consumption, alongside the performance of various sectors such as construction and petrochemicals [6][16][28]. Group 1: Industrial Production - The blast furnace operating rate remains stable, with a week-on-week increase of 1.2% and a year-on-year maintenance at 1.5% [6]. - Steel apparent consumption has shown a week-on-week increase of 2.2%, but a year-on-year decline of 0.9 percentage points to 4.1% [6]. - Social steel inventory has decreased by 1.7% compared to the previous week [6]. Group 2: Petrochemical Sector - In the petrochemical chain, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 4.5% week-on-week but increased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to -1.4% [16]. - The PTA operating rate increased by 3.6% week-on-week and rose by 5.7 percentage points year-on-year to 3% [16]. - Downstream consumption in the polyester filament sector saw a week-on-week decrease of 0.9% and a year-on-year decline of 2.2 percentage points to -5.3% [16]. Group 3: Construction Industry - In the construction sector, the national grinding operating rate increased by 2.1% week-on-week and rose by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year to 14.1% [28]. - The cement shipment rate increased by 7.3% week-on-week and rose by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 0.8% [28]. - The cement inventory ratio has increased by 0.9% week-on-week and by 3 percentage points year-on-year to 7.3% [28]. Group 4: Glass and Asphalt Production - Glass production has remained flat compared to the previous week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.3 percentage points to -7.5% [40]. - The apparent consumption of glass decreased by 5.7% week-on-week and fell by 5.7 percentage points year-on-year to 6.6% [40]. - The asphalt operating rate, reflecting infrastructure investment, increased by 0.7% week-on-week but saw a year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points to -6.4% [40]. Group 5: Real Estate and Transportation - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 14.8% week-on-week and saw a year-on-year increase to 25.5% [52]. - The railway freight volume related to domestic demand decreased by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year to 4.3% [64]. - The number of domestic and international flights increased by 0.5% and 1.2% week-on-week, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 7.7% and 2.2% to 10.2% and 7.1% [76]. Group 6: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally weak, with pork, vegetables, and fruit prices decreasing by 1.3%, 0.9%, and 0.7% respectively [106]. - The industrial product price index decreased by 0.2% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index increasing by 1.2% and the metal price index decreasing by 0.6% [118].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Sectors**: The PMI data indicates trends in these sectors - **Photovoltaic Industry**: Changes in export tax policies affecting this sector - **Semiconductor Industry**: Price adjustments by major companies - **Paper and Steel Industries**: Price increases announced by key players - **U.S. Employment and Economic Indicators**: Upcoming reports that may impact market sentiment Core Points and Arguments 1. **PMI Data Release**: The manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was at 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [1] 2. **Export Tax Changes for Photovoltaic Products**: Starting April 1, 2026, the VAT export rebate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and will be completely eliminated by January 1, 2027. This is expected to pressure export companies and shift the photovoltaic industry towards high-quality development rather than low-cost competition [1] 3. **Semiconductor Price Increases**: Major companies like Texas Instruments, NXP, and Infineon are raising prices on select products starting April 1, with Texas Instruments seeing increases up to 85% and Infonion's mainstream products expected to rise by 5% to 15% [2] 4. **Fuel Surcharge Adjustments**: Domestic airlines are expected to raise fuel surcharges, following the trend set by major carriers [2] 5. **Unlocking of Restricted Shares**: A total of 28 restricted shares will be unlocked next week, with a total market value of nearly 29.3 billion yuan, led by Hongri Da at 10.846 billion yuan [2] 6. **New Stock Issuances**: Three new stocks are set to be issued, including Saiying Electronics and Yuyuan Composites [2] 7. **Price Increases in Passive Components**: Murata has announced price hikes of 15% to 35% for AI server and high-end automotive MLCC products, effective April 1 [2] 8. **Paper Industry Price Increases**: Yueyang Lin Paper and Chenming Paper have announced price increases of 200 yuan per ton for various paper products starting April 1, 2026 [3] 9. **Steel Industry Price Adjustments**: Baosteel, Ansteel, and Benxi Steel are all raising base prices by 200 yuan per ton for multiple steel products in April [3] 10. **Upcoming Financial Reports**: A peak in domestic earnings reports is expected, with several key companies set to announce their financial results [3] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **U.S. Employment Reports**: The U.S. will release the non-farm payroll report for March, with expectations of a rebound to an increase of 55,000 jobs after a surprising decrease in February [4] 2. **G7 Meeting on Strategic Oil Reserves**: Discussions were held regarding the release of strategic oil reserves, which could impact global oil prices [4] 3. **Geopolitical Tensions**: The U.S. is reportedly preparing for ground operations in Iran, which could have significant geopolitical implications [5]

Group 1 - The report is a scrap steel morning report issued by the Black Team of the Research Center on March 30, 2026 [1] Group 2 - The report shows the scrap steel prices in East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China from March 23 to March 27, 2026, and the price changes compared to the previous period [2] - In East China, the price decreased by 7 from 2215 to 2207 [2] - In North China, the price decreased by 5 from 2285 to 2281 [2] - In Central China, the price remained unchanged at 2081 [2] - In South China, the price decreased by 2 from 2252 to 2250 [2] - In Northeast China, the price increased by 2 from 2237 to 2239 [2] - In Southwest China, the price remained unchanged at 2135 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **For the steel sector**: The market has entered a seasonal inventory - reduction phase. Although the current market sentiment is pessimistic about the future, the recent sharp rise in crude oil prices has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices. Technically, futures prices are oscillating between the middle and upper bands of the Bollinger Bands, and there is a possibility of stabilizing and rebounding after a short - term retracement to the support level. The recommended strategy is to go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [2]. - **For the iron ore sector**: As the market enters the consumption peak season, the output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average hot metal output increased. The short - term impact of Australian weather on port shipments has boosted iron ore futures prices, but the shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better. Technically, the futures price shows significant resistance above after breaking through the upper Bollinger Band. The recommended operation is also to go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils 3.1.1. Supply and Demand - Last week, the total output of five major varieties from 247 sample steel mills changed little, inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound. The market has entered a seasonal inventory - reduction state. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 79.78%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output is 231.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.94 million tons or 1.29%. The proportion of profitable steel mills is 43.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points. The national building materials steel mill threaded rod output is 197.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.46 million tons or 2.69%. The hot - rolled coil output is 305.61 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.40 million tons or 1.80% [2]. 3.1.2. Inventory - The social inventory of five major varieties is 1387.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.33 million tons or 1.65%. The threaded rod social inventory is 642.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.46 million tons or 1.60%. The hot - rolled coil social inventory is 369.42 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.91 million tons or 1.84%. The steel mill inventory of five major varieties is 510.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25.06 million tons or 4.68% [2]. 3.1.3. Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for five major varieties is 887.97 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.49 million tons or 2.24%. The apparent demand for threaded rods is 225.37 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.28 million tons or 8.30%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 313.63 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.12 million tons or 1.00% [2]. 3.1.4. Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day and an increase of 1 yuan or 0.03% from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3299 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day and an increase of 2 yuan or 0.06% from last week [2]. 3.1.5. Operation Suggestion - Go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore 3.2.1. Supply and Demand - The market is entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average hot metal output increased by 2.9 million tons to 231.2 million tons week - on - week, with the growth rate narrowing. The short - term impact of Australian weather on port shipments has boosted iron ore futures prices, but shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better [4]. 3.2.2. Inventory - The port inventory decreased week - on - week. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 17000.31 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98.09 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume is 313.17 million tons, a decrease of 7.80 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports is 17666.83 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 147.35 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume is 330.31 million tons, a decrease of 5.61 million tons [8]. 3.2.3. Futures and Spot Prices - The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 812 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 3.5 yuan or 0.43% from last week. The settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 106.95 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 0.39 US dollars or 0.36% from the previous day and a decrease of 0.36 US dollars or 0.34% from last week [5]. 3.2.4. Operation Suggestion - Go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The demand side shows that last week, the molten iron output increased continuously, the steel mill profits rebounded, the production rhythm was good, and the raw material demand was in an upward stage. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.3109 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 61,900 tons [1][4]. - On the supply side, last week, both overseas shipments and arrivals increased week - on - week. However, steel mills actively purchased, port desilting was good, and inventory continued to decline. The total global iron ore shipments were 3.1443 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 95,500 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 17.66683 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 147,350 tons; the daily average desilting volume was 330,310 tons, a decrease of 5,610 tons [1][5]. - Overall, it is expected that the iron ore price will continue the volatile and upward trend [1][6]. Group 3: Transaction Data - SHFE rebar: closing price 3,124 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan, up 0.03%, total trading volume 4,322,964 lots, total open interest 2,309,613 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil: closing price 3,299 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, up 0.06%, total trading volume 1,468,357 lots, total open interest 962,265 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore: closing price 817.0 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan, up 0.18%, total trading volume 1,078,183 lots, total open interest 408,026 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal: closing price 1,219.0 yuan/ton, up 48.0 yuan, up 4.10%, total trading volume 7,330,872 lots, total open interest 669,897 lots [2]. - DCE coke: closing price 1,752.0 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan, up 0.66%, total trading volume 148,101 lots, total open interest 46,589 lots [2]. Group 4: Market Review - Last week, the iron ore futures showed a volatile trend. Affected by the overseas geopolitical conflict sentiment, the futures price fluctuated mainly after rising and then falling. In the spot market, the quotation of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 783 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 668 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 115 yuan/ton [4]. Group 5: Industry News - On March 25, the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou bonded crushing project and the arrival ceremony of the first ship of iron ore of SimFer were held in Dalian, marking the official opening of a new iron ore logistics channel connecting West Africa's Guinea and Northeast China [7]. - US President Trump said that the US had a "strong" dialogue with Iran and had formed the main points of an agreement, and would suspend the strike on its energy facilities for 5 days. He also said that the US was negotiating a broader agreement with Iran, and the US and Iran "might reach an agreement within 5 days or even less". However, Iran has repeatedly denied having a dialogue with the US. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Trump's statement was aimed at reducing energy prices and buying time for military operations [7]. - The US government proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, covering nuclear programs, missile capabilities, and regional issues. It is reported that the US is considering promoting a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations on the above terms [7]. - US President Trump said that the strike on Iran's energy facilities would be postponed for another 10 days until 8 p.m. on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. He also denied being eager to reach an agreement with Iran and said that the US military operations against Iran were continuing, insisting that it was Iran that sought to restart the negotiations [7]. - On March 22, Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People's Bank of China, said at the China Development Forum 2026 that China would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, comprehensively using various monetary policy tools such as the deposit - reserve ratio, policy interest rates, and open - market operations to maintain sufficient liquidity [7]. - On March 27, the US and Israel launched air strikes on the Khuzestan Steel Plant and the Mobarakeh Steel Plant in Isfahan, Iran. The power plant supporting the Mobarakeh Steel Plant was also attacked. It is expected that a rigid supply gap of 5 - 5.5 million tons per year will be formed in the short term, with the most prominent gaps in the three categories of plates, billets, and long products [7]. - On March 28, two major aluminum plants in the Middle East were attacked. The factory of Bahrain Aluminum Company was attacked by Iran, and property losses were being evaluated. The United Arab Emirates Global Aluminum Company, one of the world's largest aluminum producers, was also attacked by Iran. It is understood that the aluminum products exported from the Middle East account for about 10% of the global supply, which may have a certain impact on the market [7]. - US Vice - President Vance said that the US had no intention of staying in Iran and would withdraw soon after dealing with current affairs [7]. - The US military's plan for a rapid ground - war victory within a few weeks was exposed. The Pentagon proposed a "sharp - blade beheading" tactic, aiming at the oil - rich Khark Island in Iran without occupying territory or waging a long - term war, trying to replicate the "42 - day defeat of Iraq" myth [7]. Group 6: Related Charts - The report provides 26 charts, including those related to steel mill profitability, iron production, iron ore shipments, arrivals, inventory, and price differentials, with data sources from iFinD, Mysteel, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [8][9][11]

钢材周报 2026 年 3 月 30 日 关注需求力度 期价震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 投资咨询号：Z0016301 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 赵奕 从业资格号：F03153902 投资咨询号：Z0023788 ⚫ 宏观面：美国总统特朗普表示，将针对伊朗能源设施的 打击再推迟10天，至美国东部时间2026年4月6日晚8点。 特朗普同时否认急于同伊朗达成协议，并表示美国对伊 朗的军事行动正在继续，坚称是伊朗方面寻求重启谈 判。中钢协：3月中旬，重点统计钢铁企业粗钢平均日 产202.7万吨，日产环比增长0.8%；钢材库存量1791万 吨，环比上一旬增长0.6%，比上月同旬下降1.2%，比去 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views of the Report - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with improvements in volume, price, and profit margin. Enterprises started to replenish inventory, showing signs of recovery in the Chinese enterprise sector. However, due to the turbulent world political situation in March, the rhythm of industrial enterprise profits remains to be observed [22][23]. - The short - term cost support for steel prices is difficult to decline significantly, and terminal demand is neutral. Steel prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term, and the impact of the Middle East situation on steel exports needs to be noted [2][31]. - The production of sugar in Thailand in the 25/26 season is better than expected, and the international sugar trade flow is expected to face greater pressure of oversupply in the second and third quarters of 2026. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [36][37]. - The Middle East situation is still tense, which suppresses the prices of some assets such as copper and US stocks, while increasing the risk premium of oil prices [4][6][74]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Iran's Revolutionary Guard said the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and any passage through this channel will face "severe measures" [11]. - The Senate hearing of Fed Chairman nominee Wash will be held as early as the week of April 13. The short - term gold price is expected to be volatile, and silver is expected to be weaker than gold [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US military is preparing for a ground operation in Iran. The market is worried about the escalation of the US military's ground operation, the risk appetite is low, and the US dollar index remains high [3][14][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Iran said the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, and the Houthi armed forces attacked important Israeli military targets. The short - term US stock market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [4][18][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first two months increased by 15.2% year - on - year. The Middle East situation has deteriorated, and the stock index is still under pressure [22][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 146.2 billion yuan. It is recommended to pay close attention to the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market is running steadily and strongly. The overall supply - demand pattern of coking coal is relatively loose, and the downstream's ability to accept prices is limited. It is necessary to focus on changes in the demand side [27][28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel industry had a loss of 2.47 billion yuan from January to February. The short - term steel price is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see [2][29][32]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The production of sugar in Thailand in the 25/26 season is better than expected, and the international sugar trade flow is expected to be in surplus in the second and third quarters of 2026. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [36][37]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazil's cotton exports in February were 270,500 tons. The US cotton planting area in 2026 is expected to decrease. The short - term external cotton is expected to be strongly volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile in the short term and may adjust downward from April to May [38][42][43]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US has finalized the biofuel blending quotas for 2026 - 2027. Palm oil prices are strongly supported, and soybean oil is expected to gradually get out of the undervalued range and be in a volatile and strengthening pattern next week [45][46][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The US corn export sales in the week ending March 19 were in line with expectations. Corn prices are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [48][49][50]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The domestic oil mill's soybean crushing volume decreased last week. The market is waiting for the USDA's planting intention report and quarterly inventory report. It is recommended to view soybean meal from a volatile perspective for the time being [51][52]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Luoyang Molybdenum produced 741,100 tons of copper in 2025, reaching a new high. The copper price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the domestic positive arbitrage layout [53][55][56]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - EnergyX started a lithium production facility in Texas. The lithium ore supply is tight, and the demand for power is not pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [57][58][59]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Middle East situation has led to a shortage of sulfuric acid in the Chilean mining industry. The lead price is expected to continue to grind at the bottom in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61][63]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price rebounded last week. The overseas zinc ore supply is tightened, and the domestic zinc smelting profit has declined. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and take profit on long positions at high prices [65][66]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium were in a low - level volatile pattern last week. It is recommended to wait and see for platinum and palladium, pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and take profit on the long platinum - palladium ratio strategy at high prices [67][68][69]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The domestic and overseas tin inventories decreased last week. The supply of tin ore is tight in the short term, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to the supply of major producing areas and the realization of demand growth [71][72][73]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The Middle East conflict has entered the fourth week, and the oil price risk premium remains high. The short - term oil price is affected by the uncertainty of the Middle East situation [74][75]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The LPG price was in a volatile and weak pattern last week. It is expected to be in a strongly volatile pattern next week, and it is necessary to be cautious before the geopolitical situation is clear [76]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in a narrow - range volatile pattern, and enterprises with demand can consider buying on dips [77][78]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of pure benzene futures rose due to the tense Middle East situation. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to reduce inventory in April and May and continue to run strongly [79][80]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The container throughput of major ports in China increased in the first two months of 2026. The spot container freight rate has loosened, and the far - month contract is supported by oil prices and is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a volatile thinking and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [81][82].

Industry News - Bahrain and UAE aluminum plants confirmed attacks from Iran, causing injuries and property damage, potentially impacting global aluminum supply which accounts for about 10% of the market [4] - China's high-energy physics research institute announced the successful mass production of medical-grade alpha isotopes, accelerating the clinical application of domestic alpha nuclear medicine [4] Company News - Dazhengda announced the cancellation of a temporary shareholders' meeting and will not review the investment in a GPU company [8] - SanTe Ski Resort received an administrative penalty notice from the Hubei Securities Regulatory Bureau [8] - Baibang Technology is planning a change in control, leading to a suspension of its stock [9] - China Petroleum announced a projected net profit of 157.3 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% [12] - Tianshan Aluminum expects a 107.92% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2026 [12] - Changfei Optical Fiber projected a 20.4% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, proposing a dividend of 2.95 yuan per 10 shares [12] - Luoyang Molybdenum announced a 50.3% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, proposing a dividend of 2.86 yuan per 10 shares [12] - TCL Technology projected a 188.8% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, proposing a dividend of 0.9 yuan per 10 shares [12] - BYD reported a total revenue of 803.96 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.46% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in industrial production, construction, and demand in China, highlighting the recovery in certain sectors while noting weaknesses in others. Group 1: Industrial Production - The blast furnace operating rate remains stable, with a week-on-week increase of 1.2% and a year-on-year stability at 1.5% [2] - Steel apparent consumption increased by 2.2% week-on-week but saw a year-on-year decline of 0.9 percentage points to 4.1% [2] - Steel social inventory decreased by 1.7% week-on-week [2] Group 2: Construction Industry - Cement production and demand have shown signs of recovery, with a week-on-week increase in grinding operating rate of 2.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.6 percentage points to 14.1% [24] - Cement shipment rate increased by 7.3% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points to 0.8% [24] - Cement inventory ratio increased by 0.9% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 3 percentage points to 7.3% [24] Group 3: Demand Trends - National commodity housing transactions have improved, with a week-on-week increase of 14.8% in average daily transaction area for 30 major cities, and a year-on-year increase to 25.5% [48] - The transaction area for first, second, and third-tier cities increased by 9.1%, 15.5%, and 20.7% respectively week-on-week, with year-on-year increases of 25.3%, 63%, and 33% [48] - Freight volume remains resilient, with railway freight volume and highway truck traffic down by 3.2% and 1.2% year-on-year to 4.3% and 7.6% respectively [60] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally weak, with pork, vegetables, and fruit prices decreasing by 1.3%, 0.9%, and 0.7% respectively week-on-week, while egg prices increased by 1.6% [102] - The overall industrial product price index decreased by 0.2% week-on-week, with energy and chemical prices increasing by 1.2% and metal prices decreasing by 0.6% [114]