| A 27's William Juliah Bill Philip | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( *) 买入营业部 | | | 奥出营业部 是否为专场 | | 025-10-20 | 重庆钢铁 | 601005 | 1.4 42.84 | 30.6 | 園區產品與景點 | 公園區程繁笑望園 Ki | 10月20日，重庆钢铁大宗交易成交30.6万股，成交额42.84万元，占当日总成交额的0.23%，成交价1.4 元，较市场收盘价1.52元折价7.89%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: As of the week ending October 17, the combined daily average coke production of coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12,700 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.4095 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5,900 tons. The coke inventories of upstream and downstream industries decreased. The inventory of all independent coking plants was 572,900 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 65,500 tons, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3944 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 113,800 tons. Overall, both supply and demand of coke decreased, with a more significant reduction on the supply side, and the overall industrial chain inventory decreased. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and the upward driving force mainly comes from the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expected policy benefits [6][34]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending October 17, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 779,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 27,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 6,000 tons. At the import end, the Ganqimaodu Port resumed operation on October 8, with the daily traffic volume returning to around 1,100 - 1,300 vehicles. At the demand end, the combined daily average coke production of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12,700 tons. In terms of inventory, downstream coking plants and steel mills actively purchased this week, and the coking coal inventory was transferred downstream. As of the week ending October 17, the coking coal inventory of all independent coking plants was 9.9737 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 383,100 tons, and the coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.8832 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 71,900 tons. Overall, the fundamentals of coking coal lack support, but recent weather and anti - involution impacts in the main production areas have caused disturbances, driving the main coking coal futures contract to maintain a relatively strong volatile operation [7][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China began in Beijing on the morning of the 20th. General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered a work report on behalf of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and explained the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (Discussion Draft)" to the plenary session [9]. - On October 20, the price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market remained stable. The ex - factory price of medium - sulfur main coking clean coal with specifications A10.5, S1.3, V25, G80, CSR65, and petrographic 0.15 was 1,300 yuan/ton including tax in cash [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade FOB) | 1,520 | 0.00% | 3.40% | - 10.06% | - 21.65% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Ex - Warehouse) | 1,460 | 1.39% | 0.00% | - 9.88% | - 20.65% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,260 | - 1.56% | - 1.56% | 6.78% | - 20.25% | | Coking Coal (Australian - Produced in Jingtang Port) | 1,540 | 1.32% | - 4.35% | 3.36% | - 16.76% | | Coking Coal (Shanxi - Produced in Jingtang Port) | 1,660 | 0.00% | - 2.92% | 8.50% | - 14.87% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,710.0 | 1.63 | 1,738.0 | 1,685.0 | 26,668 | 6,177 | 40,175 | - 560 | | Coking Coal | - | 1,216.0 | 2.66 | 1,238.5 | 1,187.0 | 1,072,864 | 202,940 | 618,806 | 12,271 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke total inventory, and total coke inventory over the years [15][16][17][18]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts show the mine - mouth coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, 247 sample steel mill coking coal inventory, and all independent coking plant coking coal inventory over the years [21][24][26][31]. - **Other Charts**: Charts show domestic steel mill production (including blast furnace operating rate and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw steel procurement volume, coal washing plant production (including clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operating conditions (including coke production profit and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [28][29][32][33]. 3.5后市研判 - The analysis of coke and coking coal is the same as the core viewpoints, including production, demand, inventory, and overall situation analysis [34][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the holiday, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased. The production of rebar decreased while demand increased, and the apparent demand rebounded significantly due to the low - base effect, with inventory turning from an increase to a decrease. The increase in hot - rolled coil inventory slowed down. The fundamentals improved month - on - month, but the sustainability of demand is questionable. In the short term, there is no obvious negative feedback pressure, and steel prices will fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume decreased. The molten iron output decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory continued to rise slightly, and the overall inventory accumulation was limited. Supported by high molten iron output, the fundamentals are not under obvious pressure, and prices are more affected by macro and terminal demand, showing short - term weak fluctuations [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the production of coking coal in the main producing areas has mostly returned to normal, and the overall supply has not changed much. The demand for coking coal has slightly improved, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure at present. Coke enterprises' profits have shrunk, and the second round of price increases has started, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. High molten iron output at the same period provides some support for the prices of coking coal and coke, and they should be treated as range - bound [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In the first week after the holiday, affected by tariff sentiment, steel prices declined overall. The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, with rebar showing reduced production and increased demand, and the apparent demand rebounding significantly due to the low - base effect. The increase in hot - rolled coil inventory slowed down. However, due to the suppression of macro - sentiment by tariffs and the concentrated delivery in the middle of the month, the prices of the black series declined under pressure [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output was 201.16 tons (down 1.10% month - on - month and 17.58% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 321.84 tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and up 5.42% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace production decreased, while electric furnace production increased. The blast furnace operating rate remained stable, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly [16][18][23]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was - 66 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan/ton week - on - week and 348 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was - 57 yuan/ton (down 65 yuan/ton week - on - week and 20 yuan/ton year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 219.75 tons (up 43.46% month - on - month and down 9.75% year - on - year), the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.78 tons (down 6.29% month - on - month and 13.80% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 315.55 tons (up 6.96% month - on - month and down 1.00% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory turned from an increase to a decrease, with both factory and social inventories declining. Hot - rolled coil inventory increase slowed down, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising slightly [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the transaction of commercial housing improved, but the land market transaction remained weak. In September 2025, automobile production and sales continued to rise both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2825 tons (up 5.94% month - on - month and 14.81% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2519.4 tons (down 17.28% month - on - month and up 5.69% year - on - year) [60]. - **Demand**: Molten iron daily output was 240.95 tons (down 0.59 tons month - on - month and up 6.59 tons year - on - year), the ore - unloading volume at 45 ports was 315.72 tons (down 3.45% month - on - month and 3.12% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.21 days (down 0.10% month - on - month and 3.08% year - on - year) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 14278.27 tons (up 1.81% month - on - month and down 6.93% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8982.73 tons (down 0.70% month - on - month and 0.27% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.92 days (up 1.74% month - on - month and 14.94% year - on - year) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 87.33% (up 6.64% month - on - month and down 1.48% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal - washing plants was 35.79% (up 1.33% month - on - month and down 15.59% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 15.30 tons (down 13.71% month - on - month and up 36.84% year - on - year) [77]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 61.59 (down 38.41% week - on - week and 19.15% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 89.33% (down 4.69% week - on - week and up 28.15% year - on - year) [80]. - **Coke Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 13 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton month - on - month and 37 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 74.24% (down 1.25% month - on - month and unchanged year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke was 84.72% (down 0.95% month - on - month and 2.06% year - on - year) [86]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 852.98 tons (up 4.13% month - on - month and 10.38% year - on - year), the steel mills' coking coal inventory was 788.50 tons (up 0.97% month - on - month and 7.36% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 272.71 tons (down 7.55% month - on - month and 33.58% year - on - year) [92]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 37.59 tons (down 11.64% month - on - month and 1.36% year - on - year), the steel mills' coke inventory was 639.44 tons (down 1.75% month - on - month and up 13.58% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 195.15 tons (up 0.03% month - on - month and 8.28% year - on - year) [98]. - **Spot Price**: Coke started the second - round price increase, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1550 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 250 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1390 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month and down 400 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The rebar basis widened, and the hot - rolled coil 1 - 5 spread narrowed. The coil - to - rebar spread slightly decreased, and the coking coal and coke 1 - 5 spreads slightly increased [105][111].

宏观有所预期，钢价震荡运行 钢材周报 20251020 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证：F03131526 成材：宏观有所预期，钢价震荡运行 （1）供给： 全国主要钢厂螺纹钢当周产量为201.16万吨（-2.24），热轧当周产量为321.84万吨（-1.45）。 （2） 需求： 近期高频数据显示，螺纹表观需求上升，热卷表观需求上升。上周螺纹表观需求为219.75万吨（+66.57），热轧表观 需求315.55万吨（+20.54）。 （5）总结： 钢厂盈利率55.41%，环比下降0.87%; 铁水产量240.95万吨，环比减少0.59万吨。 高炉开工率84.27%，环比持平，高炉产能利用率90.33%，环比减少0.22%; 电炉开工率68.85%，环比上升1.79%， 电炉产能利用率53.2%，环比上升2.13%。 基本面方面，钢厂盈利率收缩，铁水产量下降但仍保持高位。部分钢厂检修，高炉开工率持平，短流程产量增加，螺纹总 产量小幅下降，节后需求有所恢复但同比低位，库存去化，但仍处于高位，库存仍有压力。据百年建筑调研 ...

消费回落，生产改善 [Table_Authors] 国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 41 期） 经济从假期脉冲转向常态增长，消费回落，生产普遍改善，出口运价分化。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 | 1. | 周度高频数据速览 3 | | --- | --- | | | 消费：节后季节性回落 3 1.1. | | | 1.2. 投资：地产小幅回暖 4 | | | 1.3. 进出口：出口运价分化 5 | | | 1.4. 生产：多数回升 6 | | | 库存：表现分化 7 1.5. | | | 1.6. 物价：工业品价格回落 7 | | | 1.7. 流动性：总体平稳 8 | | 2. | 本周重点数据日历 9 | | 3. | 风险提示 9 | 宏观周报 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.19 [Table_Report] 2025-10-20 [Table_Summary] 上周高频数据显示，消费方面，商品消费小幅回落，服务消费在假 期脉冲式增长后逐步回归常态。投资方面，在新型政策性金融工具 与地方政府 ...

10月13日，海关总署公布1-9月进出口数据，按人民币计价，1-9月，我国货物贸易进出口总值33.61万亿 元，同比增长4%。其中，出口19.94万亿元，同比增长7.1%(9月同比增长8.4%)；进口13.66万亿元，同 比下降0.2%(8月同比增长7.5%)；贸易顺差6.28万亿元。 智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，1-9月我国出口钢材8795.5万吨，同比增长9.2%，出口均价 696.7美元/吨(9月出口钢材1046.5万吨，环比增长10%)；进口铁矿石9.18亿吨，同比下降0.1%，进口均 价96美元/吨。在国际市场需求波动及贸易环境复杂的背景下，我国钢材凭借其价格优势依然保持了国 际竞争力，如热轧卷板出口报价较印度、土耳其、日本等主要竞争对手每吨低20-60美元，有效消化了 国内部分供给压力，成为支撑钢铁行业的重要外部需求。 未来出口也面临一些挑战，全球制造业PMI小幅回落、钢铁行业新出口订单指数处于收缩区间等，预计 10月份钢材出口同比可能面临增速放缓或回落的压力。本周五大钢材库存仍处在历史同期较高位置，钢 材价格及利润持续下滑。 中信建投主要观点如下： 1-9月钢材出口大增，未来仍面临增 ...

本钢板材股份有限公司发布重大资产置换暨关联交易进展公告。公司拟与本溪钢铁进行资产置换，置入 本溪钢铁矿业100%股权，置出除保留资产及负债外全部资产及负债，差额现金补足。自2023年3月筹划 以来，公司多次披露进展。截至目前，交易方案需进一步论证协商，标的资产范围、交易价格等未确 定，交易不排除调整、中止或取消可能。公司将根据进展及时披露信息，提醒投资者注意风险。 ...

机构观点 银河期货：钢厂产线检修影响产量减少，电弧炉钢厂产能利用率上升，钢材需求因温度下降有所修复， 库存累积速度放缓，煤矿事故及安全检查带动黑色板块反弹，整体维持区间震荡走势。 恒泰期货：当前处于黑链终端需求季节性旺季，但上周处于国庆和中秋节中，市场交投大幅回落，螺纹 周度表需由降转增，后续市场将持续检验节后旺季需求成色；库存上，节中累库情况较为严重，后续关 注节后厂库和社库去化情况，等待去库拐点再次来临；"反内卷"政策具体实施细节尚待各部门出台，政 策预期仍将抬升黑链估值叠加当前旺季背景下的低估值对钢价形成底部支撑。建议交易者01合约短期观 望为主，中期逢低轻仓试多的机会。 10月20日，上期所螺纹钢期货仓库仓单129796吨，环比上个交易日减少147655吨；螺纹钢期货厂库仓单 21600吨，环比上个交易日持平。 10月20日，中天螺纹价格3190元/吨，根据市场统计口径，昨天出库7.70万吨，较上周同期减少0.10万 吨，杭州螺纹库存93.3万吨，较上周同期增加1.5万吨。 10月20日，螺纹钢期货主力合约报收于3045.00元/吨，小幅下跌0.03%。 【消息面汇总】 10月17日螺纹期货库存录得2 ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月20日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张庆 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3200 | 3190 | 10 | 163 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3110 | 3120 | -10 | 73 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3220 | 3230 | -10 | 183 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3093 | 3102 | -d | 107 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3132 | 3141 | -d | ୧୫ | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3037 | 3049 | -12 | 163 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 3280 | -10 | 66 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3190 | 3190 | O | -14 | | | 热卷现货(华 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [4][6][72] Core Viewpoints - The construction demand is under pressure while raw material prices remain relatively strong, leading to a maintained "Overweight" rating for the industry [6] - Steel demand has shown a significant week-on-week increase, primarily driven by the resumption of work after the National Day holiday, although construction material demand remains weak year-on-year [6][10] - Steel inventory has increased week-on-week, with hot-rolled steel experiencing the most accumulation [6][15] - Iron output has decreased week-on-week but has increased year-on-year, indicating resilience in demand supported by the manufacturing sector [6][37] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% this week, while the CSI 300 Index dropped by 2.22%. The steel sector declined by 2.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.21 percentage points [10] - Black futures prices have decreased, with rebar closing at 3037 CNY/ton, down 66 CNY/ton (2.13%), and hot-rolled coil at 3204 CNY/ton, down 81 CNY/ton (2.47%) [13][38] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased year-on-year, totaling 8.5922 million tons, although it increased by 1.5131 million tons week-on-week [15] - Total steel inventory rose to 21.7508 million tons, an increase of 389.33 thousand tons year-on-year [25] - The iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4095 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.0059 million tons week-on-week but an increase of 0.659 million tons year-on-year [37] Profitability and Pricing - The profitability per ton of steel has weakened, with various steel products showing fluctuating profits, such as rebar at -15 CNY/ton and hot-rolled steel at -8 CNY/ton [46] - The profit ratio among 247 steel mills was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous week [47] Downstream Demand - Domestic cement dispatches fell to 2.5285 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 726.5 thousand tons [58] - PVC production increased to 467.38 thousand tons, up 1.4293 thousand tons year-on-year [58]