1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook: The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the expectation of rising energy valuations is increasing, leading to a low - level upward repair of coking coal, alloys, and glass - soda ash futures prices. However, the off - season fundamentals lack highlights, with steel and iron ore inventories still under pressure, so the upward driving force for steel and iron ore prices is limited, and they will mainly operate in an oscillatory manner. Overall, it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, the peak - season expectations are still cautious, the driving force for the futures price increase is limited, and there is a risk of a high - level correction after the price increase. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the fulfillment of peak - season demand [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have recovered and are at a high level, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term. Although there are uncertainties in the macro - environment due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, after the Spring Festival, the weight of fundamental pricing is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro - disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large, and iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the pressure on the inventory is still there. During the Two Sessions, some regions will implement production restrictions, which will affect the recovery rhythm of molten iron. Attention should be paid to the support strength of post - festival demand [2][7][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuation is small. The supply is gradually recovering, and it is expected to return to normal in about two weeks. The demand is at a seasonal low, and the inventory has decreased significantly during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the actual demand situation [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the long run, there is a slight growth expectation for both supply and demand of coke. In the short term, although there are disturbances, the supply - demand structure of coke will continue to be healthy. However, the cost support of coking coal has weakened, and the expectation of spot price reduction is strong. The futures price is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. The supply may decrease slightly during the Two Sessions, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory pressure is acceptable [2][9][10] - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals of coking coal have pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. The spot price is expected to run weakly and stably, while the futures price is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation affected by capital sentiment. The supply has recovered rapidly, the import is at a high level, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental support is insufficient, there is resistance in the downward transmission of the cost end, and the upstream inventory is high. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures price. When the futures price rises above the cost line, the risk of correction should be guarded against. The cost is rising, the demand recovery is slow, and the inventory may further accumulate [3][14] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamental contradiction is limited but the driving force is insufficient. Continuous price increases may accelerate the resumption of production of manufacturers, leading to a marginal weakening of the supply - demand relationship. There is a risk of high - level correction when the futures valuation is quickly repaired above the cost line. The cost support is strengthening, the demand recovery is slow, and the manufacturers' willingness to resume production is increasing [3][15] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has a disturbance expectation, but the inventories of the middle and downstream are moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the demand does not improve significantly after the Lantern Festival, the high inventory will always suppress the price. The supply may decline in the long run, the downstream demand has not recovered, and the inventory pressure is large [3][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the high inventory and high supply always suppress the price [3][12] 3.5 Steel - The spot market is gradually recovering, but the overall production is at a low level. The demand is also at a low level, and the inventory is still accumulating. The fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated. Affected by the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the macro - environment is still uncertain. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2482.90, up 1.00%; the commodity 20 index was 2847.65, up 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2364.70, up 1.43%. The steel industry chain index on the same day was 1915.51, with a daily increase of 0.33%, a 5 - day increase of 0.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.74%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.06% [100][102]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market's focus remains on the US - Iran war. Rising energy prices have led to inflation concerns, causing liquidity tightening and a significant decline in market risk appetite [1][17]. - Due to the escalating Iran war situation and inflation concerns, risk assets have been sold off, and the trading logic in the market is chaotic. It is recommended to focus on risk - aversion and appropriately reduce positions [2][20]. - With the potential rise in stagflation pressure, the bond market is unlikely to have a one - way trend. There is a possibility of reversal at extreme points, and it is advisable to focus on band - trading opportunities [3][25]. - Steel prices continue to be in a weak and volatile pattern, mainly due to fundamental constraints. It is difficult for steel prices to have a significant upward drive in the short term [4][27]. - The methanol futures are expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5][61]. - Under the influence of capital sentiment, the European - line container freight futures still have the potential to rise. However, without strong fundamental support, the high prices on the disk may not be sustainable. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels after confirming the inflection point of sentiment [6][65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Kashkari is now uncertain about the expected one - time interest rate cut in 2026 due to the war cloud [11]. - Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the Fed Chair, will slowly advance the Fed's balance - sheet reduction, aiming to restore the Fed's balance - sheet size to the pre - 2008 crisis level [12]. - The White House will provide naval escort and political risk insurance for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices have dropped by about 4%, and silver has fallen by more than 10%. The strong US dollar has continued to suppress the market. The short - term inflation pressure in the US has increased, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has decreased. The precious metals' downward trend has been intensified. Gold has not yet stabilized [13]. - Investment advice: The short - term market volatility has increased, the precious metals' prices are oscillating, and silver still needs to pay attention to the risk of decline [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump claims that Iran's military capabilities have been severely damaged and denies being "dragged into the war" by Israel. The US will provide insurance and naval escort for ships passing through the Persian Gulf. Trump has ordered to cut off trade with Spain [15][16]. - The market's focus is on the US - Iran war. Rising energy prices have led to inflation concerns, causing liquidity tightening and a significant decline in market risk appetite. The US dollar is expected to remain strong in the short term [17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to be strong in the short term [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In February 2026, the number of new A - share accounts decreased month - on - month and year - on - year due to the Spring Festival holiday, but the enthusiasm of margin traders remained high. The number of new margin trading accounts increased year - on - year [19]. - The A - share market opened higher and closed lower. The Iran war situation has gradually spread, and the market is worried about the war getting out of control. Risk assets have been sold off. Due to inflation concerns, interest - rate hike trading has emerged. The market's trading logic is chaotic. It is recommended to focus on risk - aversion and appropriately reduce positions [20]. - Investment advice: Appropriately reduce the long - position strategy of stock index futures and wait for the situation to become clear for right - side trading [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank had a net injection of 50 billion yuan in the open - market Treasury bond trading in February. On March 3, the central bank conducted a 34.3 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 491.7 billion yuan on that day [22][23]. - The market has revised up the duration of the conflict, and inflation expectations have risen, leading to a decrease in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, a stronger US dollar, and an increase in US Treasury bond yields. The long - term Treasury bonds are in a relatively tangled state, and the yield curve has steepened. If the stagflation pressure rises, the bond market is unlikely to have a one - way trend. It is advisable to focus on band - trading opportunities [23][25]. - Investment advice: The bond market will be in a shock before the meeting, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply shocks after the meeting [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened on the afternoon of March 4, with a duration of 7 days. Steel prices are still in a volatile pattern. Geopolitical factors and rising energy prices have not brought substantial benefits to steel prices due to fundamental constraints. Before the terminal demand improves substantially, steel prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, and the downside space is relatively limited [27]. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is advisable to adopt a volatile trading strategy and pay attention to potential undervalued opportunities [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal prices in the central - China market are running steadily with a weak trend. The supply has stabilized in the short term, but the intermediate links are mostly waiting and watching, and the inventory has accumulated at the mine end. The terminal demand is slowly released, and steel mills' profits are under pressure, so their enthusiasm for purchasing coking coal is not high. During the major meetings, steel mills have the expectation of reducing production, and the demand for coke is limited. The coking coal prices in the central - China market are expected to remain stable in the short term [29]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the supply is recovering rapidly after the festival, but the terminal demand has not been significantly activated, and the spot prices are still weak. The market will remain in a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to policy changes around the two sessions and the resumption rhythm of downstream industries [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On March 3, the steam coal prices in the northern port market remained stable. The willingness of spot traders to sell has increased, but the supply of high - quality spot goods is tight, and traders' asking prices are firm. The demand has not improved significantly, and the成交 situation is not good. The steam coal prices are expected to continue to rise due to the Indonesian export restrictions and the high oil prices caused by the Middle - East conflict [32]. - Investment advice: The short - term steam coal prices are expected to be strong [32]. 3.2.4 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - In early March 2026, the 11.6 - million - ton - per - year iron ore processing and expansion project of Leting Xintian Industry Co., Ltd. reached a key promotion node. The external uncertainties have increased, and the supply - demand situation of the industrial chain is uncertain. The iron ore prices are expected to be weak and volatile. During the two sessions, Hebei is expected to limit production by 30%. Affected by production restrictions and weather, the overall molten iron output is expected to rebound in mid - to - late March [33]. - Investment advice: During the two sessions, Hebei is expected to limit production by 30%. Affected by production restrictions and weather, the overall molten iron output is expected to rebound in mid - to - late March. The external uncertainties have increased, and the supply - demand situation of the industrial chain is uncertain. The iron ore prices are expected to be weak and volatile [34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US soybean crushing volume in January 2026 was 6.84 million short tons, higher than analysts' average forecast. The rise in crude oil prices due to the Middle - East conflict and the previous US bio - fuel policy have indirectly benefited the US soybean crushing demand and CBOT soybean prices. The domestic soybean meal futures prices are strongly oscillating, but the spot prices are slow to follow, and the basis has been continuously narrowing [36]. - Investment advice: The soybean meal futures prices may be strongly oscillating under cost support. Future attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US, reserve sales, the progress of Brazil's soybean harvest and exports, and China's import soybean customs - clearance policies [36]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - India's palm oil imports in February increased by 10.1% month - on - month, reaching a six - month high. The increase in India's palm oil and soybean oil imports may reduce the inventories in Indonesia and Malaysia and boost the palm oil and soybean oil futures. The international diesel price increase has supported the palm oil price, and the Indian trade is expected to increase palm oil imports in March, which is conducive to the inventory reduction of Malaysian palm oil in March [37][38]. - Investment advice: The international geopolitical conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and diesel prices, which is beneficial to the bio - diesel industry and will support the prices of the oil market. The oil market is expected to remain strong before the international situation eases [38]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The US corn export inspection volume in the week ending February 26, 2026, decreased by 8% week - on - week but increased by 37% year - on - year. The corn futures and spot prices are oscillating strongly. The supply from the grass - roots level is expected to gradually recover. The downstream demand has support, and the centralized procurement by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation has boosted the market sentiment [39][40]. - Investment advice: The low inventories at the north - south ports, the slow release of the grass - roots selling pressure, and the tight supply of high - quality corn in the Northeast provide support for the price. However, there is still a risk of concentrated selling of the ground - stored corn in the Northeast as the temperature rises. The weak demand in the downstream breeding and deep - processing industries and the potential impact of wheat auctions may suppress the price. In the short term, the market is affected by multiple factors, and the current futures price is relatively high. It is advisable to trade according to the trend and not to chase the high price. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound, but the upward range is limited by demand recovery and policy regulation. Attention should be paid to the weather, corn reserve purchase policies, and wheat auction dynamics [40]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the northern Xinjiang region, cotton enterprises' basis quotes are stable, and textile enterprises are adopting the "locked - basis" procurement strategy. Australia's cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to decrease by 20% due to water supply shortages and low cotton prices. The import yarn prices have increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to increase. The Zhengzhou cotton futures have entered a shock - adjustment state after a sharp rise. The downstream gauze market recovery is slow, and the import yarn inventory has a negative impact on domestic cotton consumption. The new Xinjiang cotton target - price subsidy policy is about to be introduced, which will have a significant impact on the cotton planting area [41][42][44]. - Investment advice: The textile enterprises' cotton yarn inventory is not high, and the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season is approaching. The short - term factors such as the reduction of US tariffs on Chinese goods support the cotton price. The commercial cotton inventory in China and Xinjiang has decreased year - on - year, and the spot basis is strong. The market sentiment is expected to be positive. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are not expected to decline significantly in the short term. However, the peak - season performance is uncertain, and the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference will suppress the cotton price increase. The futures price is expected to be in a shock in the short term. Attention should be paid to the macro - level dynamics, the resumption of downstream enterprises, and the order situation [45]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Huatong Co., Ltd. has provided a maximum - amount joint and several liability guarantee for the downstream pig - farmers' "Huatong Piglet Loan" business. The pig market has over - capacity and inventory pressure, and the overall spot sentiment is not optimistic. The futures price has a relatively high premium compared to the spot price, so the short - term long - position safety margin is not high. In the medium term, it is more suitable to adopt the strategy of short - selling on significant rebounds. Attention should be paid to the situation of piglets and sows to determine whether the cycle will reverse [46]. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to the short - selling opportunities brought by the postponed supply pressure [47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On March 2, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $47.76 per ton. The Shanghai lead futures rose and then fell. The US - Iran geopolitical conflict has not eased, and the decline in interest - rate cut expectations, recession trading, and liquidity withdrawal have affected the precious metals and non - ferrous metals markets. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the 0 - 3 cash spread decreased. The domestic social lead inventory decreased marginally. The lead price rebounded from a low level due to cost support and supply - demand mismatch, but it is also affected by the macro - level situation. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream large enterprises [48][49]. - Investment advice: In terms of the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to pay attention to medium - term long - position opportunities; in terms of the arbitrage strategy, it is advisable to wait and see [49]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - In January, the total global sales of eight major Japanese automakers increased by 0.7% year - on - year, while the total production decreased by 1.6%. On March 2, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $20.6 per ton. The domestic and international zinc prices oscillated downward. The US - Iran geopolitical conflict has not eased, and the increase in energy prices and the decline in interest - rate cut expectations have affected the non - ferrous metals market. The LME zinc inventory decreased, and the 0 - 3 cash spread oscillated. The domestic social zinc inventory increased significantly, and the domestic fundamentals are under short - term pressure. The zinc price may enter a stage of shock adjustment, and it is advisable to manage positions well in the high - volatility market [50][51]. - Investment advice: In terms of the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to wait and see, and it is recommended to close the previous long positions; in terms of the arbitrage strategy, it is advisable to wait and see for the month - spread arbitrage, and it is recommended to adopt the medium - term positive cross - market arbitrage strategy [52]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Canadian mining company First Phosphate has obtained conditional approval for a CAD 16.7 - million (about USD 12.2 - million) grant to support its lithium - iron - phosphate battery - grade phosphoric acid processing plan. The lithium carbonate futures limit - downed, and the weighted contract open interest decreased. The market rumor that the Middle - East situation affects energy - storage demand has limited impact. In March, the domestic lithium carbonate inventory is expected to decrease by about 2,000 tons. After the sharp decline in the futures price, the downstream buying demand has increased. In April, the lithium carbonate demand is expected to continue to increase, and the inventory will continue to decrease. Attention should be paid to the Zimbabwe export policy, the power - terminal situation, and the demand fulfillment [53][54]. - Investment advice: Referring to the night - session non - ferrous metals' volatility, the lithium carbonate futures may open lower today. The risk - return ratio around 150,000 yuan is average, but if the price continues to fall, it may be advisable to gradually try long positions [55]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Indonesia's tin production quota in 2026 is 65,860 tons. The domestic SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME tin inventory increased. The short - term supply shortage situation has eased with the resumption of production in Myanmar and the expected increase in Indonesia's production in 2026. In the long - term, the supply is concentrated and vulnerable, and the supply may be restricted by anti - globalization and resource nationalism. The domestic smelting processing fees have remained unchanged, and the smelting profit margin has decreased slightly. The smelting enterprises' production decreased during the Spring Festival, and the downstream enterprises' holiday was extended. With the resumption of production of some downstream enterprises, the traders' willingness to sell has increased. Attention should be paid to the downstream inventory replenishment [56][57]. - Investment advice: Under the background of the US - Israel - Iran conflict, the risk - aversion sentiment and the rising US dollar index have suppressed the tin price. The visible inventory is relatively high, and the supply expectation has increased. The tin price is expected to be in a shock - consolidation state in the short term. Attention should be paid to the downstream receiving situation, open interest changes, and the macro - level and capital sentiment [58]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to maintain a "steady progress" trend supported by global monetary order restructuring, AI application promotion, and domestic growth stabilization and reform, making it a favorable period for investment allocation [1] Industry Performance Summary 1) Energy and Basic Materials - "Price increase" commodities are supported by demand and performance certainty, with notable price increases in energy and non-ferrous metals, including a 8% rise in thermal coal, 3% in WTI crude oil, and 18% in lithium carbonate [2] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have driven up oil and metal prices, while OPEC+ announced an oil production increase plan for April to counteract upward price pressures [2] 2) Industrial Products - Global AI-related manufacturing investment is in an expansion phase, with strong domestic and international demand for construction machinery, evidenced by a 61% year-on-year increase in domestic excavator sales [3] - The domestic power battery installation volume was 42.0 GWh in January, showing a 57.2% month-on-month decline but an 8.4% year-on-year increase [3] 3) Consumer Goods - Domestic consumption is showing signs of improvement, with January sales of washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners increasing by 0.6%, decreasing by 2.4%, and increasing by 12.7% respectively [4] - The average purchase price of live pigs remained stable at 14 yuan/kg before the Spring Festival, with a projected national pig stock of 429.67 million heads by the end of 2025, an increase of 2.24 million heads from the previous year [4] 4) Technology - AI applications are continuously iterating, with significant increases in usage, as evidenced by a weekly usage of 4.12 trillion tokens for Chinese AI models, surpassing the U.S. [5] - The semiconductor industry remains robust, with global sales increasing by 37% year-on-year in January, and China's sales growing by 34% [5] 5) Financials - The A-share market is supported by a "steady progress" trend, with an average daily trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan in February and a margin balance of 2.7 trillion yuan at the end of the month [6] - The insurance industry is projected to see a 7% year-on-year increase in premium income by 2025 [6] 6) Real Estate - Policy measures are promoting inventory reduction, with a 11% year-on-year increase in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities in February [6] - The housing price index for new and second-hand homes in 70 major cities fell by 3% and 6% year-on-year respectively in January 2026 [6] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from AI technology, such as cloud computing infrastructure, optical communication, energy storage, and semiconductors, while also considering cyclical opportunities in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and engineering machinery [6][7] - Emphasize long-term investment in high-dividend leading companies in sectors like white goods, oil and petrochemicals, and public utilities [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising trading heat in commodity markets, particularly in oil, natural gas, and shipping, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [1][3][4]. Group 1: Commodity Market Trends - On March 2, 2023, 12 commodity futures, including crude oil, hit the upper limit, followed by another 10 on March 3, indicating strong market activity [1]. - SC crude oil futures rose by 13.99% to 641.1 yuan per barrel, while fuel futures increased by over 13% [1]. - The "war premium" has led to significant price differentiation, with natural gas and shipping prices surging more than international oil prices, with shipping up over 30% and natural gas up over 70% [1]. Group 2: Natural Gas and Shipping Prices - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to severe global natural gas shortages, as it is a critical passage for oil and LNG [3]. - Brent crude oil prices reached a 14-month high of $82.37 per barrel, with a subsequent increase of approximately 7% [3]. - European natural gas prices surged, with the TTF near-month futures rising by 53.76% on March 2 and over 26% on March 3, totaling a two-day increase of over 70% [3]. Group 3: Shipping Index and Rates - The European shipping index saw a significant increase of 34.34% over two trading days, nearly double the gains of domestic oil and fuel products [4]. - Daily rental rates for VLCC oil tankers exceeded $200,000, with benchmark rates for routes from the Persian Gulf to Japan rising by over 36% [4]. Group 4: Energy Sector Performance - Major Chinese oil companies, including China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and Sinopec, experienced consecutive trading halts, contributing to a near 10-year high for the Shenwan primary oil and petrochemical index [5]. - The coal sector also saw significant gains, with the Shenwan primary coal index reaching a nearly 4-year high [5]. - Oil and gas ETFs and LOF products led the market, with the benchmark index for oil and gas industries up 47.8% year-to-date [5]. Group 5: New Energy and Precious Metals - In contrast to the surge in traditional energy sectors, lithium carbonate and other new energy materials faced declines, with lithium futures dropping by 12.99% to 15,086 yuan per ton [6]. - Precious metals like gold and silver experienced volatility, with significant price fluctuations observed in the market [7][8]. Group 6: Market Sentiment and Asset Preferences - The ongoing conflict is expected to push oil prices to $100 per barrel, with market consensus leaning towards bullish sentiment on oil [9]. - Traditional cyclical assets such as machinery, oil and gas, and construction materials are gaining favor in the market due to their stability amid uncertainties in AI-related sectors [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The convertible bond market experienced an incremental correction today, with compressed valuations. The market style favored large-cap value stocks, and trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up. The prices and valuations of convertible bonds showed certain changes, and most industries in the stock and convertible bond markets declined [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 1.81% compared to the previous day, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 3.07%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.57%, the SSE 50 Index decreased by 1.06%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 3.95% [1]. - In terms of market style, large-cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large-cap growth decreased by 1.73%, large-cap value increased by 0.89%, mid-cap growth decreased by 3.38%, mid-cap value decreased by 2.33%, small-cap growth decreased by 4.30%, and small-cap value decreased by 2.50% [1]. 2. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market reached 75.94 billion yuan, a 14.19% increase compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Wind All A Index was 3.157558 trillion yuan, a 3.67% increase compared to the previous day. The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 130.445 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond increased by 0.46bp to 1.78% [1]. 3. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - Convertible bond prices: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 141.20 yuan, a 1.64% decrease compared to the previous day. Among them, the closing price of equity-biased convertible bonds was 220.86 yuan, a 0.30% increase; the closing price of bond-biased convertible bonds was 121.65 yuan, a 0.24% decrease; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 133.66 yuan, a 0.62% decrease. The proportion of high-priced bonds above 130 yuan was 75.20%, a 2.84 percentage point decrease compared to the previous day. The price median was 138.77 yuan, a 1.46% decrease compared to the previous day [2]. - Convertible bond valuation: The fitted conversion premium rate of 100-yuan par value was 38.12%, a 2.17 percentage point decrease compared to the previous day. The overall weighted par value was 106.02 yuan, a 2.07% decrease compared to the previous day. The premium rate of equity-biased convertible bonds was 20.36%, a 0.67 percentage point increase; the premium rate of bond-biased convertible bonds was 85.73%, a 1.29 percentage point increase; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 27.07%, a 0.77 percentage point decrease [2]. 4. Industry Performance - In the A-share market, the top three industries with the largest declines were national defense and military industry (-6.74%), non-ferrous metals (-5.61%), and electronics (-5.30%); the top three industries with the largest increases were petroleum and petrochemicals (+6.75%), coal (+1.76%), and transportation (+1.14%). - In the convertible bond market, 27 industries declined. The top three industries with the largest declines were communications (-5.51%), electronics (-4.26%), and non-ferrous metals (-3.89%); the only industry that rose against the trend was banking (+0.07%) [3]. - Closing price: The large cycle decreased by 2.21%, manufacturing decreased by 3.08%, technology decreased by 3.40%, large consumption decreased by 1.45%, and large finance decreased by 0.51% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large cycle increased by 0.8 percentage points, manufacturing increased by 1.7 percentage points, technology increased by 3.0 percentage points, large consumption increased by 2.5 percentage points, and large finance increased by 2.1 percentage points [3]. - Conversion value: The large cycle decreased by 2.70%, manufacturing decreased by 4.16%, technology decreased by 5.31%, large consumption decreased by 2.25%, and large finance decreased by 0.17% [3]. - Pure bond premium rate: The large cycle decreased by 3.4 percentage points, manufacturing decreased by 5.2 percentage points, technology decreased by 6.1 percentage points, large consumption decreased by 1.9 percentage points, and large finance decreased by 0.59 percentage points [3]. 5. Industry Rotation - Industries leading the rise included petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, and transportation. The daily increase rates of petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, and transportation were 6.75%, 1.76%, and 1.14% respectively. In the convertible bond market, the daily increase rate of the banking industry was 0.07%, and it was the only industry that rose [52].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a dynamic balance strategy that has achieved an annualized absolute return of 19.15% and a relative return of 12.37% from January 2015 to February 27, 2026, with a maximum drawdown of 10.18% [3][55] - Recommended industries for March 2026 include non-ferrous metals, electric equipment and new energy, basic chemicals, steel, telecommunications, and machinery [3][55] - The macro-driven strategy has generated an annualized excess return of 4.75% since January 2016, with a maximum drawdown of 9.51% [4][45] - The multi-strategy approach has yielded an annualized relative return of 6.23% since May 2011, with a maximum drawdown of 13.44% [5][67] - The extreme style high Beta strategy has achieved an annualized relative return of 10.05% since July 2013, with a maximum drawdown of 13.44% [5][79] Market Review - In February, the overall A-share market rose, with the small and mid-cap indices outperforming large-cap indices. The CSI 300 index had a return of 0.09%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices returned 3.44% and 3.71%, respectively [16][17] - The top five performing sectors in February were steel, building materials, machinery, coal, and defense industry, while the bottom five were media, non-bank financials, consumer services, retail, and telecommunications [16][17] Industry Configuration Dynamic Balance Strategy - The dynamic balance strategy achieved an absolute return of 3.89% in February, outperforming the benchmark with an excess return of 1.98% [3][55] - The strategy's performance since the beginning of 2026 has resulted in an absolute return of 13.83%, with an excess return of 5.39% relative to the mixed equity fund index [3][55] Macro-Driven Strategy - The macro-driven strategy recommended industries for March 2026 include oil and petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, telecommunications, defense industry, and banking [4][45] - The strategy achieved an absolute return of 2.43% in February, with an excess return of 0.16% [4][45] Multi-Strategy Configuration - The multi-strategy approach recommended industries for March 2026 include telecommunications, real estate, construction, banking, textiles and apparel, pharmaceuticals, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals [5][57] - The strategy's absolute return in February was 1.48%, with an excess return of -0.83% [5][65] Extreme Style High Beta Strategy - The extreme style high Beta strategy recommended industries for March 2026 include banking, electric utilities, coal, transportation, basic chemicals, and automobiles [5][79] - The strategy achieved an absolute return of 4.27% in February, outperforming the benchmark with an excess return of 2.06% [5][79] Industry Crowding Indicators - In February, crowding indicators showed fewer triggers across industries, with coal, electric utilities, steel, basic chemicals, building materials, and electric equipment and new energy showing signs of crowding [6][83]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on coking coal and coke in the ferrous metals industry, dated March 3, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Prices - Coking coal futures prices (JM01: 1420, up 27.5; JM05: 1127, up 33; JM09: 1222, up 27.5). Coke futures prices (J01: 1856, up 38; J05: 1694, up 42; J09: 1770, up 39) [4] Spot Prices - Coking coal spot prices: low - sulfur primary coking coal is 1520, down 50; medium - sulfur primary coking coal is 1270, unchanged. Coke spot prices: port quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) is 1480, unchanged [4] Warehouse Receipts - Coking coal warehouse receipts: Shanxi coal is 1190, unchanged; Meng 5 is 1197, up 32. Coke warehouse receipts: port spot (wet - quenched) is 1591, unchanged [4] Basis - Coking coal basis: for Shanxi coal, 01 contract is - 150, 05 contract is 63, 09 contract is - 32. Coke basis: for port spot (wet - quenched), 01 contract is - 155, 05 contract is 7, 09 contract is - 69 [4] Transportation Prices - Transportation prices of coking coal and coke remain unchanged, such as Jiexiu to Fengnan District is 140, unchanged [4] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - The current coking coal and coke futures prices have risen significantly. Affected by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the price of thermal coal has increased, which supports coking coal. In the short - term, the double - coking futures are expected to be volatile and bullish, and in the medium - term, they are expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to focus on the prices of oil, gas and thermal coal [6] Specific Trading Suggestions - Unilateral: Long positions can be held; in the medium - term, it is recommended to focus on band trading [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] - Options: The short position of out - of - the - money put options can be held [9] Related Prices - Coke warehouse receipts: Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) is 1591 yuan/ton, etc. Coking coal warehouse receipts: Shanxi coal is 1190 yuan/ton, etc. [10] Important Information - In the coking coal production area, most mines in Linfen have basically resumed normal production, but the demand is weak, and the low - sulfur primary coking coal price in Anze and Qinyuan is under pressure. The imported coal market is running at a high level, with high costs and narrowing price increases [11] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the comprehensive absolute price index of coke, the price of Meng 5 coking coal, the basis of coking coal and coke, etc., covering data from 2021 to 2026 [13][15][17]

B中信期货有限公司 能源价格走势偏强,焦煤盘面低位修复 2026/03/03 CITIC Futures Company Limited 陶存辉 钟宏 电宇蒙 研究员: 余典 醛原 从业资格号 F03122523 从业资格号 F03099559 从业资格号 F03100815 从业资格号 F03144159 从业资格号 F03118246 投资咨询号 Z0019832 投资咨询号 Z0020955 投资咨询号 Z0021807 投资咨询号 Z0022199 投资咨询号 Z0022727 印尼媒炭供应偏紧,在港口库存水位偏低的环境下,节后动力媒市场看涨情绪不减,港口媒价持续上探;叠加本周在地缘 政治因素影响下,原油价格强势上行,市场对能源估值上涨预期升温，而从焦煤自身的基本面来看,市场供应及库存压力均较 为有限,黑色产业链旺季临近下游铁水产量趋增、焦煤基本面存在支撑。今日主力合约期价低位修复,大商所数据显示, jm2605收报1127元/吨,日内收盘价涨3%。 供应端来看,国有煤矿春节假期较短,目前已基本复产,民营煤矿假期相对较长,目前也在陆续复产,焦煤产量趋于回 升,但整体复产高度难超预期,蒙煤通关已全面恢复 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights two main investment themes: cyclical price increases supported by economic recovery and the technology manufacturing sector [1] - In February, the A-share market experienced a volume contraction with small-cap and dividend stocks outperforming, while the technology sector shifted focus from AI to advanced manufacturing [8][4] - The report indicates that the semiconductor price increase trend continues, with the DXI index rising by 6.1% month-on-month and over 12 times year-on-year [2][3] Group 2 - In the upstream cyclical sector, prices for non-ferrous metals are fluctuating at high levels, while most petrochemical products are experiencing price increases [12][14] - The report notes that the cost pressure in the midstream manufacturing sector, particularly in new energy materials, is easing, but the recovery of domestic demand remains to be observed [17][2] - In the consumer sector, overall domestic demand is still weak, but there are optimistic signals in certain industries such as liquor and second-hand housing [3][11] Group 3 - The valuation comparison shows that the cyclical, manufacturing, and electronic sectors are experiencing valuation expansion, currently at historically high levels [5][6] - The report suggests that macroeconomic events and fundamental impacts will increase in March, with recommendations to focus on cyclical price increases and technology manufacturing as key investment themes [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of domestic demand and the performance of specific sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and second-hand housing [3][11]

Core Viewpoint - China Coal Energy Co., Ltd. announced that its stock experienced an abnormal fluctuation, with a cumulative deviation of 20% in closing prices over three consecutive trading days [1] Group 1 - The company confirmed that there are no undisclosed significant information related to the company, its controlling shareholders, or actual controllers [1]