Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued, with good static fundamentals and positive dynamic forecasts. It's a good time for left - hand side layout, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, current reality is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It's recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but with low corporate profits, the downside is limited. There is a lack of upward drivers, but when positive factors emerge, prices may break out of the consolidation range. It's advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, NR and RU are showing a strengthening trend in the oscillation. It's recommended to take a neutral view and wait and see in the short term, and consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][10] - For PVC, it has a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It's necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It's recommended to wait and see [10] - For benzene styrene, the cost side has support, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upwards [12] - For PX, it has high load, and with new PTA installations, it's expected to continue de - stocking. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following crude oil when the peak season arrives [18][19] - For PTA, there is expected continuous inventory build - up, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following PX when downstream performance improves in the peak season [20] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is short - term pressure on valuation decline [21] Summary by Category Crude Oil - As of last Friday, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.79, a 1.24% decline, at $63.14; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.76, a 1.14% decline, at $66.13; INE main crude oil futures closed up 4.40 yuan, a 0.91% increase, at 486.3 yuan [1] - European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.63 million barrels to 8.75 million barrels, a 6.76% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.73 million barrels to 13.89 million barrels, a 5.56% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.20 million barrels to 6.75 million barrels, a 3.00% increase; naphtha inventory increased by 0.76 million barrels to 5.72 million barrels, a 15.25% increase; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.50 million barrels to 7.29 million barrels, a 7.31% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 1.55 million barrels to 42.40 million barrels, a 3.78% increase [1] Methanol - On August 15, the 01 contract dropped 23 yuan/ton to 2412 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 87 [4] - Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production is gradually bottoming out and rising, and overseas installations are at a high level, so imports will gradually increase, resulting in large supply pressure [4] - Traditional demand has low profits, and attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October". Olefin profits have improved, but port operation rates are low, and demand is weak [4] Urea - On August 15, the 01 contract rose 11 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 37 [6] - Domestic production has turned from decline to increase, and corporate profits are still low but are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. Production is still at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period, and overall supply is relatively loose [6] - Domestic agricultural demand is ending and will enter the off - season. Compound fertilizer production is rising, and finished product inventory is at a high level. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] Rubber - NR and RU are strengthening in the oscillation [8] - As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. Domestic and export orders for all - steel tires are normal. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. Export orders for semi - steel tires are weak [9] - As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, down 1.1 tons from the previous week, a 0.85% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 79.7 tons, down 0.8%; the total inventory of light rubber was 48 tons, down 0.8%. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.72(-1.4) tons [9] PVC - The PVC09 contract dropped 16 yuan to 4954 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850(-10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 104(+6) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 143(+11) yuan/ton [10] - The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall PVC operating rate was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. Among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, up 1.3%; the ethylene method was 81.3%, down 0.2% [10] - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5) [10] Benzene Styrene - Spot prices dropped, futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [12] - The market's macro - sentiment is good, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with large upward repair space [12] - The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and production is rising. Port inventory is continuously and significantly decreasing, and the demand - side operating rate of three S products is oscillating upwards [12] PX - The PX11 contract rose 74 yuan to 6688 yuan, PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 827 dollars, the basis was 115 yuan (-46), and the 11 - 1 spread was 6 yuan (+10) [18] - China's PX load was 84.3%, up 2.3% from the previous period; Asian load was 74.1%, up 0.5% [18] - Some domestic and overseas installations had restarts and shutdowns. PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. In August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons from the same period last year [18] PTA - The PTA09 contract rose 36 yuan to 4676 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 10 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 13 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (-14) [20] - PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns. Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63% [20] - As of August 8, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons from the previous period [20] Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract rose 2 yuan to 4369 yuan, the spot price in East China dropped 6 yuan to 4462 yuan, the basis was 88 yuan (+6), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 43 yuan (+4) [21] - The supply - side load was 66.4%, down 2%. Among them, synthetic gas - based production was 80.5%, up 5.3%; ethylene - based production was 57.9%, down 6.4%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns [21] - Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63%. The expected import volume was 14.1 tons, and the outbound volume from East China on August 14 was 0.67 tons. Port inventory was 55.3 tons, up 3.7 tons [21]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 20.5 times, positioned at the historical 86th percentile [2][3] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.5 times, at the historical 60th percentile [2][3] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 36.2 times, at the historical 23rd percentile [2][3] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 147.1 times, at the historical 100th percentile [2][3] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Building Materials, Power Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, and Light Industry Manufacturing [2][3] - The Electronic industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][3] - The Shipping and Port industry has both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][3] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the upstream polysilicon futures price increased by 4.1%, while downstream battery and silicon photovoltaic module prices showed weak price increases [2][3] - In the battery sector, lithium prices saw significant increases, with lithium carbonate rising by 15.9% and lithium hydroxide by 13.1% [2][3] Financial Sector - The non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks was 1.49% in Q2 2025, down by 2.2 basis points from Q1 [2][3] - The net interest margin was 1.42%, down by 1.3 basis points from Q1 [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The national commodity housing sales area decreased by 4.0% year-on-year from January to July 2025, indicating a gradual end to the previous backlog of demand [2][3] - Real estate development investment completed from January to July 2025 decreased by 12.0% year-on-year [2][3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.4%, while the wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.8% [2][3] - Retail sales from January to July 2025 grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with July's growth rate of 3.7% falling short of expectations [2][3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment and narrow infrastructure investment grew by 6.2% and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively, from January to July 2025 [2][3] - The output of industrial robots increased by 32.9% year-on-year from January to July 2025 [2][3] Technology TMT - The domestic integrated circuit output grew by 10.4% year-on-year from January to July 2025 [2][3] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.3%, closing at $66.13 per barrel [2][3] - The price of thermal coal increased by 2.3%, closing at 698 yuan per ton [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic energy and chemical commodity sector showed a volatile downward trend. The weakening of the crude oil futures on the cost side, influenced by the bearish content of the energy report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), led to an expected record - high supply glut in the global crude oil market next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. The weakening of the oil price center dragged down the cost support of the energy and chemical sector, causing prices to decline. - Most energy and chemical commodities saw inventory accumulation this week. Futures inventories of fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, plastics, and PVC increased slightly, while those of asphalt and styrene decreased slightly. Overall, the industrial data of the energy and chemical sector was weak this week, with intensified supply - demand contradictions. Coupled with the weakening of the crude oil cost side, the price center of the entire sector moved downward [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy and Chemical Sector Overall Situation - The energy and chemical sector showed a volatile downward trend this week due to the weakening of the crude oil cost side and inventory changes in most commodities [4]. Data Charts of Partial Varieties - **Rubber**: Included charts of rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory, all - steel tire开工率trend, and semi - steel tire开工率trend [6][7][9][11][14][16]. - **Methanol**: Had charts of methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefins开工率change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [19][21][22][24][26][29]. - **Crude Oil**: Featured charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery开工率, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [30][32][34][36][38][40]. - **Fuel Oil**: Contained charts of domestic high - sulfur fuel oil basis, high - sulfur fuel oil month spread, domestic fuel oil production from 2016 - 2025, Singapore fuel oil inventory from 2020 - 2025, global main shipping index from 2022 - 2025, and Shanghai Futures Exchange high - sulfur fuel oil futures inventory [45][46][48][50][53][55]. - **Asphalt**: Had charts of domestic asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, asphalt month spread, domestic asphalt production from 2016 - 2025, domestic refinery asphalt unit开工率from 2016 - 2025, China's asphalt import volume from 2020 - 2025, and Shanghai Futures Exchange asphalt weekly inventory from 2016 - 2025 [59][60][62][64][65][67]. - **PTA**: Included charts of domestic PTA basis from 2020 - 2025, PTA futures 9 - 1 month spread from 2020 - 2025, domestic PTA unit开工率from 2020 - 2025, domestic PTA weekly production from 2016 - 2025, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA warehouse receipts from 2016 - 2025, and PTA enterprise weekly inventory from 2020 - 2025 [69][71][73][75][77][79]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Had charts of ethylene glycol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic ethylene glycol开工率from 2021 - 2025, domestic ethylene glycol weekly production from 2021 - 2025, polyester industry chain开工率from 2018 - 2025, and East China ethylene glycol inventory from 2018 - 2025 [82][83][85][86][88][90]. - **Styrene**: Contained charts of styrene basis from 2020 - 2025, styrene 9 - 1 month spread from 2021 - 2025, domestic styrene开工率from 2016 - 2025, domestic styrene factory inventory from 2020 - 2025, and East + South China port styrene inventory from 2020 - 2025 [95][96][98][100][103]. - **Plastic**: Had charts of LLDPE basis, LLDPE 9 - 1 month spread from 2019 - 2025, domestic PE and LLDPE monthly production from 2019 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange plastic warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, domestic polyethylene import volume from 2018 - 2025, and domestic plastic products from 2016 - 2025 [109]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: Included charts of polypropylene basis, polypropylene 9 - 1 month spread, Taiwan polypropylene production from 2010 - 2025, domestic polypropylene downstream开工率from 2016 - 2025, domestic polypropylene warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, and domestic PP import volume from 2016 - 2025 [111][112][114][116][117][118]. - **PVC**: Had charts of domestic PVC basis from 2019 - 2025, domestic PVC 9 - 1 month spread from 2019 - 2025, ethylene production from 2016 - 2025, domestic PVC import volume from 2018 - 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange PVC warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025, and cumulative values of housing completion and sales area from 2018 - 2025 [121][123][125][129][131][133].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - The inland maintenance is expected to peak in early August. Currently, the production volume remains at a high level year - on - year. This week, the port has significantly accumulated inventory, the basis is stable, there are many imports in August, downstream demand is weak due to low profits, MTO profits are low, and the situation of low - profit and high - load operation is unsustainable. Pay attention to the subsequent start - up situation. For the 09 contract, there is significant inventory accumulation. The 01 contract has expectations of a seasonal peak season and Iranian plant shutdowns. After the near - end weakens significantly, consider building positions at low prices [1][2]. Polyolefins - On the supply side, PP maintenance is starting to decline, PE maintenance will increase in mid - to - late August, imports remain at a low level, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation from August to September. On the demand side, the downstream start - up of PP/PE is at a low level, raw material inventories have decreased to a low level, and there is potential for restocking during the subsequent peak season. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches is being depleted. The fundamental contradictions are not significant. The strategy is to take profit on the previous unilateral short positions at 7200 - 7300 near 7000 and continue to hold the LP01 position [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Some PX maintenance units have restart expectations, and PX supply will increase marginally in August. Although there are new PTA units being put into operation, there are many unplanned PTA unit shutdowns in August due to low processing fees. The PX supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally in August, and with weak oil price support, PX will fluctuate weakly. However, the medium - term supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the downward space for PX is limited. The strategy is to pay attention to the support near 6500 - 6600 for PX11 and mainly expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [10]. - **PTA**: Due to continuously low processing spreads, the planned shutdowns of PTA units have increased in August, and the PTA supply - demand situation has improved compared to expectations. However, with the commissioning of the new Hailun Petrochemical PTA unit, the medium - term PTA supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, and the PTA basis will operate weakly. Overall, considering the weak supply - demand expectations and the trend of oil prices, PTA will fluctuate weakly. However, due to low PTA processing fees and limited PX supply - demand pressure, and with the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the downward space for PTA is limited. The strategy is to pay attention to the support near 4600 for TA01, conduct reverse arbitrage for TA1 - 5 at high prices, and mainly expand the PTA surface processing fee at low levels (around 250) [10]. - **MEG**: In terms of domestic supply, multiple coal - to - MEG units are restarting or increasing production in August, but the 1.9 - million - ton - per - year MEG unit of Shenghong Refining & Chemical is currently shut down due to an accident, and the restart time is undetermined, so the domestic supply recovery is postponed. In terms of overseas supply, the Ma Petroleum and Saudi Sharg3 units have shut down temporarily, and the restart time is unclear. The MEG import volume may be revised downwards. On the demand side, terminal orders are weak during the traditional off - season, but as the high - temperature period and the off - season are coming to an end, the polyester load will gradually increase. Overall, the short - term MEG supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The strategy is that EGO9 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4350 - 4500 [10]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply and demand are both increasing. On the supply side, the previously shut - down short - fiber plants are gradually restarting. In terms of demand, with the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, there are improvements in local autumn and winter orders at the terminal, and the downstream yarn - coating demand has increased slightly compared to last year, providing some support for prices. However, the short - term supply - demand driving force is limited, and the weak oil price trend may cause the absolute price of short - fiber to fluctuate weakly. The strategy is the same as that for TA in a single - side trade; the surface processing fee will fluctuate in the range of 800 - 1100, and the upward and downward driving forces are both limited [10]. - **Bottle - grade polyester**: August is still the peak season for soft - drink consumption, and large bottle - grade polyester plants such as Sanfangxiang, China Resources, Yisheng, and Wankai are maintaining production cuts. As the production - cut time extends, even though the demand is average, the production - cut effect is gradually emerging, as reflected in the slow depletion of current bottle - grade polyester inventory, which provides support for the processing fee. The absolute price still follows the cost side. The precondition for the processing fee to expand is an increase in demand. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the production cuts of bottle - grade polyester units will further increase and the downstream follow - up situation. The strategy is that the PR single - side trade is the same as that for PTA, the main - contract surface processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton, and consider going long on the processing fee at low prices in the short term [10]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are rebounding. The current main trading logic is the game between geopolitical risk uncertainties and weak demand expectations. Specifically, the meeting between US and Russian leaders may cause oil price fluctuations. If the summit fails, the threat of secondary sanctions from the US on Russian oil buyers such as China and India may lead to supply disruptions in Russia, triggering a short - term bullish risk premium and driving oil prices to rebound slightly. However, the loose supply - demand fundamentals suppress the upward space. The IEA expects the supply surplus pressure to become increasingly prominent from 2025 - 2026, and the production increase of OPEC+ and the growth of non - member supply will further increase the loose pressure. In the short term, the unexpected increase in EIA US crude oil inventories has also strengthened the bearish sentiment. Macroscopically, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September provides some support for demand, but the impact is limited and lagging. Overall, the market remains in a stalemate before the summit results. As the weekend approaches, oil prices face two - way risks and the volatility will intensify. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for single - side trades and consider widening the spreads between October - November/December. The support levels are [60, 61] for WTI, [63, 64] for Brent, and [470, 480] for SC. On the options side, opportunities for volatility contraction can be captured [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic soda**: The delivery volume of caustic soda to the main downstream has increased, and the non - aluminum downstream rigid demand has followed up. The overall demand performance has been good recently. However, some units in East China will resume operation next week. There will be fewer maintenance enterprises in the future than before, and the supply is expected to increase. In South China, it is the off - season for non - aluminum industries, but the supply is increasing. The exports of East China enterprises are mostly previous orders, and the non - aluminum market is also average. It is expected that the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas will increase in August, which will also have a certain negative impact. It is expected that the rebound height will be limited. In the future, attention can be paid to the purchasing situation of alumina enterprises [76]. - **PVC**: On the supply side, new production capacity is being gradually put into operation, the domestic trade is weak, the spot trading is weak, and the number of warehouse receipts on the futures market is increasing. The inventory pressure continues to increase, and the demand is difficult to improve. In August, new domestic and foreign production capacity will continue to be released. Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Bohua are expected to release production capacity in August, Gansu Yaowang plans to start production in August, and Qingdao Haiwan plans to start production in September. The release of new production capacity will put new pressure on the PVC supply side. On the downstream side, there is no expectation of improvement, the start - up rate of downstream product enterprises remains low, and the purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The industry is still in the off - season. Overall, the supply - demand pressure remains significant. The movement of coking coal will affect the PVC futures price from the cost side. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for short - term trades [76]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Pure benzene**: In the third quarter, there are expectations of improvement in the pure benzene supply - demand situation compared to the previous quarter. With fewer port arrivals in August, port inventories are expected to decline, which will provide some short - term support for pure benzene prices. However, the overall supply of goods remains sufficient, and its own driving force is limited. It is expected that the short - term support for pure benzene will be relatively strong. However, with weak oil price support and weak medium - term supply - demand expectations, pure benzene will face some pressure. The strategy is that the BZ2603 single - side trade will follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [79]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, the overall styrene supply remains at a high level. However, as styrene profits are being compressed, some units have maintenance expectations; the overall load of the downstream 3S has increased. The short - term styrene supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the port inventory continues to decline slightly, but the absolute level of port inventory is still high, and the fundamental driving force for styrene is limited. Coupled with the recent weak oil price trend, styrene may be dragged down in the short term. The strategy is to pay attention to the support near 7200 for EB09 and consider shorting on rebounds [79]. Urea - Recently, the futures market has been fluctuating weakly. The main trading logic is that the loose domestic supply - demand situation has dragged down the center of the futures price. Specifically, on the supply side, the production volume has increased, and the capacity utilization rate has improved. Although some enterprises are under maintenance, the overall supply is sufficient. On the demand side, agricultural demand is weak, industrial demand has limited growth, and in some regions, downstream production is restricted due to the military parade, resulting in temporary pressure on demand. The continuous inventory accumulation has further increased the market pressure. Although there is a certain amount of exports, the increase is limited, and the market's expectation for export fulfillment has cooled down, making it difficult to reverse the loose domestic supply - demand situation, which has led to the downward pressure on the futures price. In the future, pay attention to the resumption progress of maintenance enterprises and new maintenance plans, as well as the progress of the export side, the final confirmed volume of the Indian IPL tender, and China's supply proportion. In the short term, the futures market is likely to continue to operate weakly [86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the closing price of MA2601 was 2435, down 1.77% from the previous day; the closing price of MA2509 was 2340, down 1.47%. The MA91 spread was - 8.65%, and the Taicang basis remained stable at 10. The spot prices in Inner Mongolia's northern line, Henan Luoyang, and Taicang all declined to varying degrees [1]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573 tons, up 0.64% from the previous value; port inventory was 102.2 tons, up 10.41%; social inventory was 131.7 tons, up 8.06% [1]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of Thursday, the domestic upstream start - up rate was 72.63%, down 0.74%; the overseas upstream start - up rate was 69.8%, up 1.96%. The downstream MTO unit start - up rate was 76.92%, up 0.68%; the formaldehyde start - up rate remained unchanged at 30.2%; the water - based paint start - up rate was 90.8%, up 1.09% [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all declined to varying degrees. The spreads between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 also changed. The basis of North China LDPE film and East China PP both increased slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, PE enterprise inventory was 44.5 tons, down 13.76% from the previous value; PP enterprise inventory was 58.8 tons, up 0.07%. The PP trader inventory was 18.0 tons, down 4.06% [7]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of Thursday, the PE device start - up rate was 77.8%, down 2.10%; the downstream weighted start - up rate was 37.9%, down 0.47%. The PP device start - up rate was 76.6%, down 1.1%; the PP powder start - up rate was 37.5%, up 4.1%; the downstream weighted start - up rate was 48.6%, down 0.3% [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha all changed to varying degrees. The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY150/48, FDY150/96, and polyester bottle - grade chips also fluctuated. The PX - related prices and spreads, as well as the PTA - related prices and spreads, also showed different trends [10]. - **Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: As of August 11, the MEG port inventory was 55.3 tons, up 7.2% from August 4. The MEG arrival expectation on August 14 was 14.1 tons, up 2.2% from the previous day [10]. - **Start - up Rates**: The Asian PX start - up rate was 73.6%, up 0.2%; the Chinese PX start - up rate was 82.0%, up 0.9%. The PTA start - up rate was 76.2%, up 0.9%; the MEG comprehensive start - up rate was 68.4%, down 0.6%. The polyester comprehensive start - up rate was 88.8%, up 0.7% [10]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 15, Brent crude oil was at $66.84 per barrel, up 1.84% from the previous day; WTI was at $63.90 per barrel, down 0.09%. The spreads between different contracts and different crude oil varieties also changed significantly [14]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil all changed to varying degrees on August 15. The spreads between different refined oil contracts also showed different trends [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%), East China calcium - carbide - based PVC, and other products all declined to varying degrees. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed [76]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, the liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 21.9 tons, up 2.0%; the PVC upstream factory inventory was 33.7 tons, down 2.4%; the total PVC social inventory was 48.1 tons, up 7.3% [76]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of August 8, the PVC total start - up rate was 77.8%, up 6.1%. The start - up rates of downstream products such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and PVC pipes all changed to varying degrees [76]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha all changed. The prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products also fluctuated. The spreads between different products and contracts also showed different trends [79]. - **Inventory**: As of August 11, the pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.60 tons, down 10.4%; the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.88 tons, down 6.4% [79]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of August 8, the Asian pure benzene start - up rate was 76.096%, down 1.3%; the domestic pure benzene start - up rate was 78.8%, up 0.3%. The start - up rates of downstream products such as PS, EPS, and ABS also changed to varying degrees [79]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the "Trump - Putin Summit", and the market is in a state of waiting for further guidance with an increase in risk - aversion sentiment. The oil price has rebounded from a low level, but the final outcome of the talks needs to be monitored [1]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient supply and falling spot premiums. The high - sulfur fuel oil's summer power - generation demand is waning, and the upward space for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is not optimistic [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand in August. In the short term, the price will likely fluctuate within a range due to the lack of a clear one - sided driver [2][4]. - The polyester market is affected by the decline in crude oil prices. With the recovery of supply and demand, the polyester chain follows the decline in the cost - end crude oil price [4]. - The methanol market has a situation where the Iranian device load has recovered to a high point, the port inventory has increased rapidly, suppressing the near - month price. However, the main contract will switch to January, and the subsequent winter port destocking will limit the downward space, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range price fluctuations [5]. - The polyolefin market is approaching the peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October". The supply will remain at a high level after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall upward space is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - The PVC market has high - level supply fluctuations and gradually recovering demand. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and the inventory is expected to decline slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose. The WTI September contract closed up $1.31 to $63.96 per barrel, a 2.09% increase; the Brent October contract closed up $1.21 to $66.84 per barrel, a 1.84% increase; SC2509 closed at 488.2 yuan per barrel, up 4.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.95% increase. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations may boost market demand. The "Trump - Putin Summit" is about to take place, and the market is waiting for the outcome. The oil price has rebounded from a low level, and the overall view is "volatile" [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed down 1.03% at 2700 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 closed down 0.23% at 3449 yuan per ton. Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased, and the spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore fell to a four - month low. The overall view is "volatile" [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.4% at 3510 yuan per ton. This week, the sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to recover, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range. The view is "volatile" [2][4]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.55% at 4666 yuan per ton; EG2509 closed down 0.89% at 4367 yuan per ton. Some MEG devices are shut down, and some polyester devices are restarted. The overall view is "volatile" [4]. - **Methanol**: The Iranian device load has recovered to a high point, the port inventory has increased rapidly, suppressing the near - month price. The main contract will switch to January, and the price is expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range fluctuations. The view is "volatile" [5]. - **Polyolefin**: The maintenance season is coming to an end, and the supply will remain high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The view is "volatile" [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The supply remains at a high - level fluctuation, the demand is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The view is "volatile" [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the base - price data of multiple energy - chemical varieties on August 15, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. 3.3 Market News - The Russian government is considering extending the full ban on gasoline exports until September [9]. - South Korea did not import Iranian crude oil in July this year and last year, and its crude oil imports in July this year were 11.3 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing - price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][13][15][17][19][21][24] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2021 to 2025 [25][27][31][32][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [39][41][44][47][50][51][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts of different varieties such as crude oil's internal - external market, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, etc. [56][60][58] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production - profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with their own professional fields and rich experience and honors [69][70][71][72] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it suggests that investors should approach oil and chemical investments with a mindset of weakening volatility, using the 5 - day moving average as a stop - loss point [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - EIA and IEA hold an oversupply view of the future crude oil market, which has dampened market sentiment. The absolute value of oil prices has dropped to the lowest since June 5, and the monthly spread, taking Brent as an example, has fallen to the lowest since May. Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains [2]. - When raw material prices fluctuate significantly, the supply - demand relationship of chemical products becomes secondary. Most chemical products' basis has slightly increased after the sharp decline on August 14. The operating rates of polyester downstream industries and the benzene - ethylene chain have improved to some extent. Caustic soda is the strongest - performing variety on August 14 [3]. - Overall, the oil and chemical industry is expected to be in a state of weakening volatility. Each specific product has its own market characteristics and trends, and investors are advised to use a weakening volatility mindset for investment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 will influence the future sanctions on Russian oil. OPEC + production increases have led to supply pressure, and crude oil inventories face dual pressures. The short - term outlook is volatile, and the market should pay attention to the progress of US - Russia negotiations [9]. - **Logic**: OPEC + production increases have prevented seasonal declines in crude oil inventories in the past two months. Overseas gasoline inventories are high, and future crude oil inventories will face pressure from the peak - to - decline of refinery operations and accelerated OPEC + production increases. If the meeting is optimistic about ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, oil prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices are weakly volatile. The main contract closed at 3472 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in different regions vary [9]. - **Logic**: EIA has significantly lowered oil price expectations. After the meeting between Russian and US leaders, the market will refocus on negative factors. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is high, driving refinery operations to return. Demand for asphalt is still not optimistic, and its current valuation is relatively high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil is weakly volatile, with the main contract closing at 2700 yuan/ton [9]. - **Logic**: EIA has lowered oil price expectations and raised OPEC production forecasts. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. China has raised the import tariff on fuel oil, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is weak. Although the cracking spread is high, the driving factors are weakening [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow crude oil and fluctuate weakly, with the main contract closing at 3449 yuan/ton [11]. - **Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil. Although it is affected by the increase in diesel cracking spread, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [11]. 3.1.5 Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, methanol's port inventory continues to accumulate, and it fluctuates downward; urea is temporarily undisturbed and the market is weak; ethylene glycol's cost support weakens and port inventory accumulates; etc. [3] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of different varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., have different changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.52 with a change of 0.04 [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties also show different trends. For example, asphalt's basis is 168 with a change of 31, and the number of warehouse receipts is 73550 [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different products such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., have different changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 220 with a change of 110 [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run weakly, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Movement and View - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly rose 0.95% to 490.5 yuan/barrel on Thursday night, but it is expected to lack the momentum to continue rising on Friday and may maintain a weakly volatile trend [5]. Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an energy outlook report stating that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, with OPEC+ increasing production, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the interest - rate cut trading continues. The probability of a 50 - BP interest rate cut by the Fed in September has risen, the US stock market has reached a new high, the 10 - year US Treasury yield has declined, the US dollar index has fallen, the gold price has risen, the copper price has declined, and the oil price has dropped to a more than two - month low. Domestically, the July financial data is cold, the A - share market has broken through the previous high, the bond market has recovered, and the stock market may enter a shock phase after the breakthrough, while the bond market opportunities may be driven by the central bank's bond - buying restart and weakening fundamentals [2][3] - For precious metals, gold and silver continue to rise. The market is digesting the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and silver is expected to outperform gold. Attention should be paid to the US inflation data [4] - Regarding copper, the US dollar is weak, and the copper price is in a strong shock. The market is digesting the positive factors, and the copper price is expected to remain strong in the context of the weak US dollar [6][7] - For aluminum, the aluminum price is oscillating. The market is waiting for the change in social inventory, and the consumption peak - off - peak switch is approaching [8] - In the case of alumina, the price is oscillating. The mine - end disturbance has not further fermented, and the price is expected to be supported and remain oscillating [9][10] - For zinc, the zinc price is in an oscillating adjustment. The market is digesting the interest - rate cut expectation, and the short - term rebound driving force is weakening [11] - Regarding lead, the lead price adjustment space is limited. The consumption peak season is under - expected, and the supply - side pressure is also weakening [12][13] - For tin, the tin price is in a high - level adjustment. The market has digested the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the supply and demand are slightly in surplus [14][15] - In the case of industrial silicon, the price is falling. The anti - involution sentiment fluctuates, and the social inventory has increased [16][17] - For lithium carbonate, the lithium price is in a wide - range shock. There are contradictions in the market game, and the terminal demand needs to be observed [18][19] - Regarding nickel, the nickel price is回调. The technical pressure is strong, and the fundamental situation is weak [20][21] - For crude oil, the oil price is weakening. The EIA has significantly raised the surplus expectation, and the short - term focus is on the US - Russia summit [22] - In the case of steel products, the steel price is oscillating. The social financing increment in the first seven months is high, and the supply - demand is expected to be weak [23] - For iron ore, the iron ore price is oscillating. The demand is in a weak season, and the supply pressure is not large [24][25] - Regarding bean and rapeseed meal, the meal price may be oscillating strongly. The US soybean export data is expected to be good, and the domestic supply in the distant end is expected to be tight [26][27] - For palm oil, the palm oil price may be oscillating strongly. Malaysia has raised the reference price and export tax, and attention should be paid to production and export demand [28][29] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - **Copper**: SHFE copper closed at 79380 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan; LME copper closed at 9777 dollars/ton, down 63 dollars. The SHFE copper warehouse receipt remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 875 tons [30][32] - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum closed at 20790 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; LME aluminum closed at 2609 dollars/ton, down 14 dollars. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt increased by 6406 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 1525 tons [30][35] - **Alumina**: The SHFE alumina futures contract closed at 3230 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan. The national average spot price was 3270 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The SHFE warehouse inventory increased by 4806 tons [30][35] - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc closed at 22600 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; LME zinc closed at 2812 dollars/ton, down 37 dollars. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipt increased by 424 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 1075 tons [30][35] - **Lead**: SHFE lead closed at 16930 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; LME lead closed at 1988 dollars/ton, down 28 dollars. The SHFE lead warehouse receipt increased by 799 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 tons [30][35] - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel closed at 122340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; LME nickel closed at 15240 dollars/ton, down 120 dollars. The SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 115 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 648 tons [30][35] - **Tin**: SHFE tin closed at 269820 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; LME tin closed at 33700 dollars/ton, down 70 dollars. The SHFE tin warehouse receipt increased by 33 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 15 tons [30][35] - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 3407.00 dollars/ounce, up 7.40 dollars; SHFE silver closed at 9300.00 yuan/kg, up 113.00 yuan; COMEX silver closed at 38.55 dollars/ounce, up 0.61 dollars [30] 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: The SHFE copper main contract price increased by 360 yuan from August 12th to August 13th, the LME copper price decreased by 63 dollars. The SHFE copper warehouse receipt remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 875 tons. The spot price increased by 320 yuan, and the LME warehouse receipt increased by 925 tons [32] - **Nickel**: The SHFE nickel main contract price decreased by 100 yuan from August 12th to August 13th, the LME nickel price decreased by 120 dollars. The SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 115 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 648 tons [32][35]