Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: February 9, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Soybean Meal Contracts**: For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 2988, the opening price was 2998, the highest price was 3016, the lowest price was 2983, the closing price was 2997, with an increase of 9 and a rise - fall rate of 0.30%. The trading volume was 41,502, and the open interest was 205,351, a decrease of 18,122. For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2730, the opening price was 2737, the highest price was 2748, the lowest price was 2729, the closing price was 2735, with an increase of 5 and a rise - fall rate of 0.18%. The trading volume was 637,898, and the open interest was 2,156,556, a decrease of 55,549. For the soybean meal 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2696, the opening price was 2700, the highest price was 2710, the lowest price was 2698, the closing price was 2702, with an increase of 6 and a rise - fall rate of 0.22%. The trading volume was 42,403, and the open interest was 497,245, a decrease of 11,081 [6] - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract approaching 1100 cents. The rebound was due to news that after the call between Chinese and US leaders, Trump praised the good relationship with China on social media and revealed that China would increase the purchase of US soybeans from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. However, due to Trump's inconsistent statements, the market priced it cautiously and awaited verification from weekly export data [6] - **South American Market**: In Brazil, the soybean production is set, and the harvest is accelerating. In the next month, large - scale harvesting is expected, which may put pressure on FOB quotes. In Argentina, the early weather was dry, but the latest forecast shows normal rainfall and cool climate in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for yield recovery [6] Operational Suggestions - Given the volatile weather in Argentina and international trade policies during holidays, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions next week [6] Group 3: Industry News - The US Treasury Department issued a proposed 45Z rule on Tuesday to regulate how biofuel producers can obtain a $1 - per - gallon tax credit for low - carbon fuels (including aviation fuel). However, some issues remain unanswered, such as the composition of the revised climate model that may affect fuel eligibility and the implementation of the foreign raw material ban [7] Group 4: Data Overview - **USDA Pressing Data**: In December, the US soybean pressing volume reached 229.9 million bushels (equivalent to 6.896 million short tons), a 4.2% increase from November and a 5.6% increase from December 2024. It was the second - highest monthly pressing volume, second only to October 2025 [14] - **Crop Expert Forecast**: The expected soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/26 season is 48 million tons, lower than the previous week's forecast of 49 million tons and the USDA's current estimate of 48.5 million tons. The southern planting area in Argentina has become drier recently, with insufficient rainfall in the coming weeks. The expected soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season remains at a record 179 million tons and may be maintained or increased in the future [14]

日度报告——综合晨报 中国央行继续增持黄金，美伊谈判仍存分歧 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-09 宏观策略（黄金） 中国 2026 年 1 月末黄金储备报 7419 万盎司 晨 国常会：研究促进有效投资政策措施 周五贵金属先跌后涨最终大幅反弹，CME 上调保证金的影响基 本消化，抄底资金出现，贵金属整体波动仍然偏高，尤其是白 银。美伊第一轮谈判结束，后续将继续谈判。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美伊结束在阿曼间接谈判 导弹与核问题分歧待解 综 美伊谈判结束，目前没有达成协议，地缘局面依旧处于复杂状 态，美元指数震荡。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 报 股市成交缩量，节前机会相对较小。近期值得关注的是通胀数 据，尤其是大宗涨价对下游的传导。若通胀走高、结构良好， 则今年宏观或可高看一线。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 1 月中国挖掘机销量 18708 台，同比增长 49.5% 近期金属价格大幅回落，加之累库带来的现货端压力，都导致 钢价承压。不过春节前钢价的回落也使得贸易商情绪更为谨慎。 预计节前钢价弱势运行，轻仓关注风险。 有色金属（铜） 巴西关键矿产投资热潮涌动 宏观影响因素短期复杂 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices are attributed to a cooling market sentiment, with the Guangxi Futures Exchange's stringent regulatory measures being a focal point of attention [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Measures - Guangxi Futures Exchange emphasizes strict regulation to curb excessive speculation while not interfering with reasonable pricing, aiming to protect the futures market's service to the real economy [1][2]. - Specific measures include raising transaction fees, increasing the minimum opening order quantity from 1 to 5 contracts, and adjusting margin requirements for speculative and hedging trades to 13% and 12% respectively, targeting excessive speculative behavior [1][2]. - The exchange's approach is characterized by a focus on maintaining order rather than price intervention, ensuring that the market returns to a rational state following a period of excessive optimism [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent price decline in lithium carbonate is seen as a correction of previous overly optimistic sentiments, with the market returning to fundamentals after curbing speculative tendencies [2]. - The rapid price increase was driven by unrealistic expectations regarding storage demand and supply constraints, which lacked sustainability, highlighting the importance of regulatory measures in stabilizing market emotions [2][3]. - The exchange's regulatory actions have allowed the market to realign with supply and demand dynamics, reinforcing the core functions of the futures market [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Guangxi Futures Exchange will maintain a strict regulatory stance against violations such as exceeding position limits and failing to report actual control relationships, ensuring a fair and transparent trading environment [3]. - The exchange's role is to act as a "gatekeeper" for the market, balancing the need to prevent excessive speculation while facilitating risk management for real entities [3][4]. - The future of the futures market is expected to be robust under careful regulatory oversight, contributing significantly to the high-quality development of the real economy [4].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 早上好，先来关注下国际市场。 今晨7：00开盘，现货白银价格一度涨逾2.4%，报79.7美元/盎司。 摩根大通在此前发布的技术策略报告中表示，金、银、铜等金属品种在未来几周都将进入"盘整期"。然 而，这并非"牛市"终结。 在摩根大通全球市场策略团队分析师Jason Hunter看来，当前的调整是长期上涨趋势中的必要休整。对 于精明的交易者而言，关键的博弈点在于"分化"：相比于黄金典型的"冲高回落"形态，基本金属（尤其 是铜）得益于全球制造业周期的支撑，其基本面逻辑更为坚实，预计将在二季度先于黄金开启反弹。 美国财政部长：预计美联储不会迅速采取行动缩减资产负债表 美国财政部长贝森特昨日表示，他预计美联储不会迅速采取行动缩减资产负债表，即便是在被提名为美 联储主席的沃什领导下也是如此。 贝森特表示，美联储可能需要长达一年的时间来对资产负债表做出决定。沃什将是一位非常独立的美联 储主席。 "至于如何处理资产负债表，将由美联储自行决定。如果他们转向'充足准备金'政策，我不认为他们会 迅速采取行动，因为这确实需要更大规模的资产负债表。所以 ...

早上好，先来关注下国际市场。 今晨7:00开盘，现货白银价格一度涨逾2.4%，报79.7美元/盎司。 摩根大通在此前发布的技术策略报告中表示，金、银、铜等金属品种在未来几周都将进入"盘整期"。然 而，这并非"牛市"终结。 在摩根大通全球市场策略团队分析师Jason Hunter看来，当前的调整是长期上涨趋势中的必要休整。对 于精明的交易者而言，关键的博弈点在于"分化"：相比于黄金典型的"冲高回落"形态，基本金属（尤其 是铜）得益于全球制造业周期的支撑，其基本面逻辑更为坚实，预计将在二季度先于黄金开启反弹。 美国财政部长：预计美联储不会迅速采取行动缩减资产负债表 美国财政部长贝森特昨日表示，他预计美联储不会迅速采取行动缩减资产负债表，即便是在被提名为美 联储主席的沃什领导下也是如此。 贝森特表示，美联储可能需要长达一年的时间来对资产负债表做出决定。沃什将是一位非常独立的美联 储主席。 "至于如何处理资产负债表，将由美联储自行决定。如果他们转向'充足准备金'政策，我不认为他们会 迅速采取行动，因为这确实需要更大规模的资产负债表。所以，我认为他们可能会静观其变，至少花一 年的时间来决定该怎么做。"贝森特说。 中信建 ...

创元期货分析师余烁表示，碳酸锂价格回调主要受宏观情绪影响。近期部分贵金属及有色金属价格 波动较大，在整体市场情绪影响下，碳酸锂期货价格也呈现较大波动。往后看，今年1月智利锂盐发运 大幅增加，预计节后到达国内，对当前碳酸锂偏紧的供需格局有一定缓解，但2月份碳酸锂总体去库趋 势不改，基本面偏强运行。 南方财经记者 翁榕涛 实习生 李欣彤 周内（2月2日至2月6日），国内期货市场整体呈现弱势运行态势，多数品种以下跌为主。受宏观经 济预期反复、部分品种基本面转弱及国际市场情绪传导等因素影响，市场避险情绪有所升温，尤其是贵 金属板块波动显著加剧。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周下跌0.20%、原油上涨0.26%；黑色系板块，焦 煤周下跌1.94%、铁矿石下跌3.95%；基本金属板块，沪锡周下跌2.67%、沪铜下跌1.82%、沪铝下跌 2.85%；贵金属板块，沪金周下跌3.95%、沪银下跌25.56%；农产品板块，鸡蛋周上涨0.34%、生猪下跌 0.42%、豆粕下跌0.74%、棕榈油下跌2.55%。 热点一：持续去库，碳酸锂价格震荡下跌 截至2月6日，碳酸锂期货价格呈现震荡下跌态势，主力合约LC2605报收 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures in the macro and finance sector is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Friday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher across the board and fluctuated upwards throughout the day, with the 30-year variety showing stronger performance. The 1-year inflation expectation in the US dropped from 4% to a 13-month low of 3.5%. The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom-bust line. The bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and trading investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher across the board and fluctuated upwards throughout the day. The 30-year bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.42%, the 10-year T2603 rose 0.08%, the 5-year TF2603 rose 0.03%, and the 2-year TS2603 rose 0.02%. The Wind All A index opened lower, rose in the morning session, and slightly declined in the afternoon, closing down 0.19% from the previous trading day, forming a small Yang line with an upper shadow, with a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan, a slight contraction compared to the previous trading day's 2.19 trillion yuan [1][2] Important Information - Open market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 31.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations and 300 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase operations. With 477.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 146 billion yuan. - Money market: On Friday, the overnight interbank funding market rate remained flat compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32%, and that of DR007 was 1.48%. - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of interbank government bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2-year government bond dropped 0.37 BP to 1.36%, the 5-year dropped 1.34 BP to 1.56%, the 10-year dropped 0.67 BP to 1.81%, and the 30-year dropped 2.00 BP to 2.25%. - US policy: The US President signed an executive order to impose tariffs on countries trading with Iran, but no new tariffs have been added for now. The US and Iran held "very good talks," and the US will negotiate with Iran again next week. - US inflation expectation: The 1-year inflation expectation in the US dropped from 4% to a 13-month low of 3.5% [1] Market Logic - In January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line, with the new order index at 49.2%, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8%, and that of the service industry was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level. The central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1][2] Trading Strategy - Trading investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "insurance + futures" model in Lishu County is transforming agricultural practices, providing farmers with financial security and stability in income, thereby enhancing their confidence in farming activities [1][7]. Group 1: Agricultural Development - By 2025, China's agricultural production capacity has significantly improved, with continuous consolidation of poverty alleviation achievements and notable progress in rural revitalization [1]. - Lishu County, known as the "Northeast Granary," has introduced a new income insurance contract for soybeans, which is changing the farming landscape [2]. Group 2: Insurance and Futures Model - The "soybean income insurance" was introduced in June 2025, providing farmers with a safety net against both crop failure and price fluctuations [3]. - The insurance guarantees that if farmers' income falls below a predetermined target due to crop loss or price drops, they will receive compensation from the insurance company [3][4]. Group 3: Farmer Engagement and Trust Building - Initial interest in the insurance program was low, with less than 20% of farmers willing to engage, prompting insurance representatives to conduct on-site visits to build trust [4]. - Farmers like Wu Liansheng became early adopters of the program, leading to the coverage of 8,000 acres of land under the "insurance + futures" project [4]. Group 4: Impact of Weather and Market Fluctuations - In the fall of 2025, adverse weather and market conditions tested the insurance model, with significant rainfall damaging crops [5]. - The insurance program successfully compensated farmers, with a total payout of 338,000 yuan, reinforcing the reliability of the "insurance + futures" model [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Expansion - As the new year approaches, farmers are planning to expand their planting areas, driven by the confidence gained from the insurance program [6]. - The positive experiences and quick compensation have led to increased interest among farmers, indicating a shift in attitude towards the "insurance + futures" model [6][7].

升贴水结算业务方面，大商所期货品种升贴水主要包括非基准交割仓库与基准交割仓库升贴水（简称区 域升贴水）、质量升贴水和品牌升贴水，个别品种还有产品升贴水。目前，区域升贴水纳入交割货款由 交易所统一结算，质量升贴水、品牌升贴水和产品升贴水由货主与指定交割仓库自行结算。在自行结算 升贴水时，部分指定交割仓库存在红字发票开具困难等问题。为解决该问题，也为向指定交割仓库提供 更为多元的升贴水结算服务，大商所拟根据指定交割仓库类型、管理需要和企业意愿等采取不同的升贴 水结算方式。该方面规则修改主要涉及《大连商品交易所结算管理办法》《大连商品交易所交割管理办 法》《大连商品交易所标准仓单管理办法》和各实物交割品种期货业务细则相关规定。 大商所2月6日发布公告，为进一步增强期货市场服务实体经济的能力和水平，大商所根据市场需求，拟 修改《大连商品交易所结算管理办法》《大连商品交易所标准仓单管理办法》《大连商品交易所交割管 理办法》及实物交割品种的期货业务细则，对升贴水和集团交割库费用结算业务进行调整，向社会公开 征求意见。 第三，根据标准仓单标注内容，相应调整货物出库质量争议检验结果对比标准与指定厂库未按时完成发 货时返还货款 ...

本报讯大商所2月6日发布公告，根据《大连商品交易所铁矿石期货业务细则》第五条，对铁矿石期货可 交割品牌及相关升贴水进行调整。具体来看，取消可交割品牌杨迪粉和本钢精粉；卡粉品牌升贴水由15 元/吨调整至5元/吨，IOC6品牌升贴水由0元/吨调整至-10元/吨。 （文章来源：期货日报网） 调整后的可交割品牌及升贴水适用于I2704及以后合约。2027年4月第1个交易日起，大商所将按照调整 后的可交割品牌及升贴水办理铁矿石期货标准仓单注册和注销。（齐宣） ...