创元期货分析师余烁表示，碳酸锂价格回调主要受宏观情绪影响。近期部分贵金属及有色金属价格 波动较大，在整体市场情绪影响下，碳酸锂期货价格也呈现较大波动。往后看，今年1月智利锂盐发运 大幅增加，预计节后到达国内，对当前碳酸锂偏紧的供需格局有一定缓解，但2月份碳酸锂总体去库趋 势不改，基本面偏强运行。 南方财经记者 翁榕涛 实习生 李欣彤 周内（2月2日至2月6日），国内期货市场整体呈现弱势运行态势，多数品种以下跌为主。受宏观经 济预期反复、部分品种基本面转弱及国际市场情绪传导等因素影响，市场避险情绪有所升温，尤其是贵 金属板块波动显著加剧。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周下跌0.20%、原油上涨0.26%；黑色系板块，焦 煤周下跌1.94%、铁矿石下跌3.95%；基本金属板块，沪锡周下跌2.67%、沪铜下跌1.82%、沪铝下跌 2.85%；贵金属板块，沪金周下跌3.95%、沪银下跌25.56%；农产品板块，鸡蛋周上涨0.34%、生猪下跌 0.42%、豆粕下跌0.74%、棕榈油下跌2.55%。 热点一：持续去库，碳酸锂价格震荡下跌 截至2月6日，碳酸锂期货价格呈现震荡下跌态势，主力合约LC2605报收 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures in the macro and finance sector is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Friday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher across the board and fluctuated upwards throughout the day, with the 30-year variety showing stronger performance. The 1-year inflation expectation in the US dropped from 4% to a 13-month low of 3.5%. The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom-bust line. The bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and trading investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher across the board and fluctuated upwards throughout the day. The 30-year bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.42%, the 10-year T2603 rose 0.08%, the 5-year TF2603 rose 0.03%, and the 2-year TS2603 rose 0.02%. The Wind All A index opened lower, rose in the morning session, and slightly declined in the afternoon, closing down 0.19% from the previous trading day, forming a small Yang line with an upper shadow, with a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan, a slight contraction compared to the previous trading day's 2.19 trillion yuan [1][2] Important Information - Open market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 31.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations and 300 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase operations. With 477.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 146 billion yuan. - Money market: On Friday, the overnight interbank funding market rate remained flat compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32%, and that of DR007 was 1.48%. - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of interbank government bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2-year government bond dropped 0.37 BP to 1.36%, the 5-year dropped 1.34 BP to 1.56%, the 10-year dropped 0.67 BP to 1.81%, and the 30-year dropped 2.00 BP to 2.25%. - US policy: The US President signed an executive order to impose tariffs on countries trading with Iran, but no new tariffs have been added for now. The US and Iran held "very good talks," and the US will negotiate with Iran again next week. - US inflation expectation: The 1-year inflation expectation in the US dropped from 4% to a 13-month low of 3.5% [1] Market Logic - In January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line, with the new order index at 49.2%, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8%, and that of the service industry was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level. The central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1][2] Trading Strategy - Trading investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "insurance + futures" model in Lishu County is transforming agricultural practices, providing farmers with financial security and stability in income, thereby enhancing their confidence in farming activities [1][7]. Group 1: Agricultural Development - By 2025, China's agricultural production capacity has significantly improved, with continuous consolidation of poverty alleviation achievements and notable progress in rural revitalization [1]. - Lishu County, known as the "Northeast Granary," has introduced a new income insurance contract for soybeans, which is changing the farming landscape [2]. Group 2: Insurance and Futures Model - The "soybean income insurance" was introduced in June 2025, providing farmers with a safety net against both crop failure and price fluctuations [3]. - The insurance guarantees that if farmers' income falls below a predetermined target due to crop loss or price drops, they will receive compensation from the insurance company [3][4]. Group 3: Farmer Engagement and Trust Building - Initial interest in the insurance program was low, with less than 20% of farmers willing to engage, prompting insurance representatives to conduct on-site visits to build trust [4]. - Farmers like Wu Liansheng became early adopters of the program, leading to the coverage of 8,000 acres of land under the "insurance + futures" project [4]. Group 4: Impact of Weather and Market Fluctuations - In the fall of 2025, adverse weather and market conditions tested the insurance model, with significant rainfall damaging crops [5]. - The insurance program successfully compensated farmers, with a total payout of 338,000 yuan, reinforcing the reliability of the "insurance + futures" model [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Expansion - As the new year approaches, farmers are planning to expand their planting areas, driven by the confidence gained from the insurance program [6]. - The positive experiences and quick compensation have led to increased interest among farmers, indicating a shift in attitude towards the "insurance + futures" model [6][7].

升贴水结算业务方面，大商所期货品种升贴水主要包括非基准交割仓库与基准交割仓库升贴水（简称区 域升贴水）、质量升贴水和品牌升贴水，个别品种还有产品升贴水。目前，区域升贴水纳入交割货款由 交易所统一结算，质量升贴水、品牌升贴水和产品升贴水由货主与指定交割仓库自行结算。在自行结算 升贴水时，部分指定交割仓库存在红字发票开具困难等问题。为解决该问题，也为向指定交割仓库提供 更为多元的升贴水结算服务，大商所拟根据指定交割仓库类型、管理需要和企业意愿等采取不同的升贴 水结算方式。该方面规则修改主要涉及《大连商品交易所结算管理办法》《大连商品交易所交割管理办 法》《大连商品交易所标准仓单管理办法》和各实物交割品种期货业务细则相关规定。 大商所2月6日发布公告，为进一步增强期货市场服务实体经济的能力和水平，大商所根据市场需求，拟 修改《大连商品交易所结算管理办法》《大连商品交易所标准仓单管理办法》《大连商品交易所交割管 理办法》及实物交割品种的期货业务细则，对升贴水和集团交割库费用结算业务进行调整，向社会公开 征求意见。 第三，根据标准仓单标注内容，相应调整货物出库质量争议检验结果对比标准与指定厂库未按时完成发 货时返还货款 ...

本报讯大商所2月6日发布公告，根据《大连商品交易所铁矿石期货业务细则》第五条，对铁矿石期货可 交割品牌及相关升贴水进行调整。具体来看，取消可交割品牌杨迪粉和本钢精粉；卡粉品牌升贴水由15 元/吨调整至5元/吨，IOC6品牌升贴水由0元/吨调整至-10元/吨。 （文章来源：期货日报网） 调整后的可交割品牌及升贴水适用于I2704及以后合约。2027年4月第1个交易日起，大商所将按照调整 后的可交割品牌及升贴水办理铁矿石期货标准仓单注册和注销。（齐宣） ...

本报讯 2月6日，郑商所通报2026年1月自律监管统计信息。2026年1月，郑商所处理异常交易行为9起， 其中自成交7起、频繁报撤单2起，通过会员单位对上述达到异常交易处理标准的客户进行监管提示。 （鲍仁） （文章来源：期货日报网） ...

市场回归理性后，广期所并未加码监管，这份"沉默"是监管智慧的另一重体现：当市场定价功能正常发 挥时，充分尊重市场规律，这也是维护市场平稳有序运行的应有之义。 随着市场情绪降温，此前持续上涨的碳酸锂价格开始转向震荡回落态势。在此轮行情切换中，广期所的 强监管举措成为市场的关注焦点。 整体来看，广期所坚持露头就打、从严追责、一严到底的监管导向：严管过度投机，不干预合理价格， 以精准监管守护期货市场服务实体经济本源。 交易所的监管从来不是干预价格涨跌，而是纠偏情绪、遏制过度投机。广期所针对碳酸锂期货的系列举 措，精准直击过度投机核心：上调手续费，提高短线交易成本；最小开仓下单数量从1手提至5手，直指 过度投机交易行为；将投机交易、套期保值交易保证金分别调整为13%、12%，差异化保证金制度实现 了对过度投机行为的精准约束。 这种精准施策的监管方式，正是严监管的智慧核心：对非理性投机，始终"紧"字当头；对实体套保需求 畅通渠道，培养正确认识，让风险管理工具真正为产业所用。 期货市场的立身之本是服务实体经济，这是期货市场发展的初心，也是监管的重要立足点。碳酸锂作为 新能源产业链核心原料，其价格稳定关乎上下游企业的经营稳 ...

Core Insights - The capacity of the futures market to serve the real economy has been widely recognized, with increasing market attractiveness and vitality [1][3] Group 1: Market Growth and Statistics - As of the end of January this year, the total funds in the futures market reached approximately 2.57 trillion yuan, a growth of about 20% compared to the end of 2025 [1] - The total number of effective clients in the market reached 2.78 million, an increase of 11% compared to 2024 [1] - In 2025, the total funds in the futures market are projected to be around 2.15 trillion yuan, reflecting a 32% growth from the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Market Growth - The significant increase in effective client numbers is attributed to three main factors: heightened demand from enterprises for hedging price risks due to increased commodity price volatility, orderly entry of medium- to long-term funds, and continuous improvement in service quality within the futures industry [2] - The attractiveness of commodity funds has been enhanced, particularly in the precious metals sector, which has drawn a large number of traders into the market [2] - The diversification of futures and options products has met varied investor needs, with new strategic products introduced last year, providing more investment choices for various industries [2] Group 3: Client Composition and Market Dynamics - In 2025, a total of 940,000 new futures clients were opened, marking a significant increase from 2024, with special unit clients representing medium- to long-term funds showing a strong growth trend [3] - The increase in client numbers reflects the recognition of the futures market's ability to serve the real economy, driven by risk management needs and improved institutional environments [3] - The participation of individual investors is influenced by wealth effects, market service capabilities, and the demand for diversified asset allocation [3]

∗ 近端交易逻辑 当下市场微观情绪已由多头踩踏转为节前的清冷僵持，主力合约在跌停后进入缩量震荡区间，暗示资金 避险意愿远超入场意愿。现货市场表现出明显的"结构性矛盾"：一方面高价抑制消费，另一方面流通货源 因物流停运而显紧凑，导致现货升水在盘面大跌后反而被迫抬升。月差结构上，近端 Back 结构因节前刚需仍 有支撑，但远端 Contango 趋势隐现。结尾直接点明，短期盘面处于"估值修正"后的阴跌阶段，既无逼空 逻辑也无大幅反转动能，价格将维持偏弱震荡。 南华期货锡产业周报 ——回吐涨幅，震荡为主 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周锡价经历了从宏观亢奋到现实坍塌的剧烈回转，盘面在触及前期高点后因流动性预期逆转而高 位"跳水"，两日内回吐了 1 月下半月几乎全部涨幅。宏观上，"沃什交易"引发的鹰派转向直接扼杀了有 色金属的溢价空间，导致资金集体获利了结。与此同时，锡市基本面呈现出极度脆弱的"供需两淡"特征： 海外印尼 RKAB 政策担忧虽存但边际钝化，缅甸矿端虽未见显著放量但低位供应 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week (February 2 - 6, 2026), the trading activity in the commodity options market declined slightly, with the average daily trading volume at 8.54 million lots and the average daily open interest at 9.31 million lots, showing a -4.75% and +5.24% change respectively compared to the previous period. Traders are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - This week, most underlying assets of commodity options declined. Polysilicon had a relatively high weekly increase of +4.55%, while silver, tin, and lithium carbonate had relatively high weekly decreases of -32.72%, -12.71%, and -10.31% respectively. The market volatility remained high, with the implied volatility of 55 varieties currently above the 50th percentile of the past year. It is recommended to be vigilant about unilateral risks and consider short - volatility opportunities [2][16]. - Currently, the trading volume PCR of synthetic rubber, lithium carbonate, and iron ore is at historical highs, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on price declines. The trading volume PCR of ethylene glycol, crude oil, palm oil, and styrene is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on price increases. The open interest PCR of PVC and synthetic rubber is at historical highs, while that of soybean meal, caustic soda, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at a one - year low [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - This week, the trading activity in the commodity options market declined slightly. The average daily trading volume was 8.54 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 9.31 million lots, with a -4.75% and +5.24% change respectively compared to the previous period [1][8]. - The actively traded varieties this week included lithium carbonate (830,000 lots), silver (810,000 lots), and PTA (640,000 lots). The varieties with significant trading volume growth were polysilicon (+95%) and lithium carbonate (+85%), while those with significant declines were p - xylene (-95%) and apples (-87%) [1][8]. - The varieties with high average daily open interest this week were glass (670,000 lots), soybean meal (620,000 lots), and soda ash (600,000 lots). The varieties with rapid open - interest growth were silver (+39%) and gold (+38%) [1][8]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options - **Underlying Asset Price Movements**: This week, most underlying assets of commodity options declined. Polysilicon had a relatively high weekly increase of +4.55%, while silver, tin, and lithium carbonate had relatively high weekly decreases of -32.72%, -12.71%, and -10.31% respectively [2][16]. - **Market Volatility**: The market volatility remained high, with the implied volatility of 55 varieties currently above the 50th percentile of the past year. The varieties with significant week - on - week increases in implied volatility included silver (+15.19 pct) and caustic soda (+8.62 pct). It is recommended to be vigilant about unilateral risks and consider short - volatility opportunities [2][16]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of synthetic rubber, lithium carbonate, and iron ore is at historical highs, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on price declines. The trading volume PCR of ethylene glycol, crude oil, palm oil, and styrene is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on price increases. The open interest PCR of PVC and synthetic rubber is at historical highs, while that of soybean meal, caustic soda, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at a one - year low [2][16]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter mainly presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data for more varieties can be accessed on the Dongzheng Finoview official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [22]. - **Energy**: Relevant charts show data on the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil [23][24][25]. - **Chemicals** - **PTA**: Charts display data on the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of PTA [29][30][36]. - **Caustic Soda**: Charts show data on the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of caustic soda [38][39][40]. - **Glass**: Charts present data on the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of glass [44][45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: Charts show data on the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soda ash [50][51][52]. - **Precious Metals**: Charts show data on the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver [59][60][61]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: Charts display data on the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of iron ore [68][70][74]. - **Silicomanganese**: Charts show data on the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silicomanganese [75][76][77]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Charts present data on the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of copper [82][84][88]. - **Aluminum**: Charts show data on the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of aluminum [90][91][92]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean Meal**: Charts display data on the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soybean meal [95][97][98]. - **Palm Oil**: Charts show data on the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of palm oil [102][103][104]. - **Cotton**: Charts present data on the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of cotton [108][109][111].